TOPI8 4 :

Seuls (pg6
+ 12 : slide Chap
a Exercise 1 :

Q1 >
-
Q6
.

Step 1 Sale : A Sale= Saleo (1 + sal)

> Bj
: :

G
·tinh o trung binh
-
B1 : estimated sales

sale volume x
price theo ob inflation B
g price g
, = :

↓%
saley =
salevolo
+
(1 +
Gsr) x
priceo (1 +
&price) C : 100 basic points = 1%
↑
↓
-

2024
↓
-

nam di Sall Yo (1 + 50 points Scach ins

G sale)
0 3%
oran
= < 2025 se
tang trig 9 % 2024 = .

>
-
2024
>
- DN on dirh cust
operating exp
E
Xem lai sale
ex1 (topic 4) stable firm (Winmart) >
-
Revere Step 2 :
Operating expenses :
COGS [ variable : x
projected (Step 1)
↓ plu E vao (Chi
phi van hanh)
salls C Revenue&
Angela green e
maturity industry
↑
demand (nhu can aia (H) t-
fixed
-
ngarch bas ho
A grossp I Sall- COGS
1-
COGS
gross margin
.

: = =

-
Sale-sale Revenue
(1) sales sale (step 1) sales
volume growth firm a grow industry phytvao COGS
.

price >
-

supply gross profit

COGS + GPM
I
purchase
AIR
ar .
CGs
=

: ar Inv
Step 3 Operating asset AIR , AlP,
Inventory
.

: : .

turnover) -
v
(tink
AIR turnover Net sales Step 1
=

NI >
-
this cas exp =
-> .

AIR
Depexp $1 2b
DCb
Inventory turnover
COGS
(Step 2) av v

[
+
.

,
.
+ =

10y (2 4) .

average Inv .
AlRend +
AIRbegv
$26 $1 26 >
average inventory. Invbeg + Invend L 2024 20G5
double
declining
=
-

=
x 2 +

ending
.

L
8300 13 , 08
10y
inventory &

8 888 + 13, 100

average inventory
,

hisICH > =

declining <4
-

:" : : 1 G
L
.

4< n < 6 : 2 Purpose of forecasting :

.G
2
n76 : +
cyclical forecast
+ smooth forecast : .
average growth
Step 62 7 : EX4 Ex5 ,
+
solatility : end +
beg
↓ (
total asset Step Debt interest
div
long-term debt
V
= total LCE
. 4 25 :
↓
,
equity , exp
flexible account. dia vio hi so no (targeted Capital)
Dir >
-

REending =
REbeg + NI-dir => chien hi tong tong cynth?
future
LT-debt >
-
X
(laivay) =>
potential changes in financial leverage strategy
repurchase stock >
-
↓ cash
requity
k
Chapter 4 :
Forecasting >
-

No
of share
outstanding t
-

6 rules Streamrystock) -
"T
-
7 steps -
Sale : Sales = Sales (1 + g)
CP
qui his nao exam Et debt ratio

Sale = Sale volo (1 +

G) + Sale price . (1+
g) Borrowing- >
repurchase +

P
Sale-COGS
COGS 1-CGS (ay no lai CP)
>
gross profit margin = = mua

sale Sale
Operating assets VD : Masan mualai Wincommerce +
np aia tap doan

I
Sales
Receivable turnover RIT McA
changing financial leverage
.
-

- = :

receivable
average Provision
Inventory.
*
for taxes statutory us federal
-

>

↓
-

AIR end + AIR

beg (thut st +2) X laisuat thing
NI
(1-t)
EBT x >
effective tax rate
thing
-

.
2
⑭ 1- NI
Buy back (mua lai CP) tax rate :

EBT
to distribute shareholders
large cash
.

amount of >
-

tien choi NI %
sty :
maturity +
phanphat ding >
-

net
earnings ,
net profit margin =
, growth rate NI

sale
treasury stock
+ Et
Lar Khoan am ↳
compare with the
company in the past.
↓ am TK la bli DN hanh lai CP'sco thi ET Dividends share
phat trij >
- * 2
repurchases
↳ chinch sach chi tra co tric
M2A : ET ntr ? Ctycochien hos growth ->
pay out ratio sinth ?
↓↓ reinvest
start-up >
-

ARE = NI-dividend -

repurchase
. Dividend = NI*
payout ratio
NI - RE >
-
darti
hi so chi tractic
.

f Sty (Apple Samsung)

,
(
got maturity
P total dividends
REend =
REbeg +
NI-Dir-Repurchases. = >
-

payout ratio It
S No of common stock.
 Step 6 : Balance the balance sheet.

si # biet quic total asset di bao vi total La E di bad

C1 tai khoain flexible di

=> can
bang las bring CA kitan.
total asset = total (c E
.

total asset Total liability a asset .

&
↑ ↓ ST
short/long-term 2 LT debt

securities
. ↓ RE
by + dividend flexible account .
↓ ST2LT debt - interest exp

+RE by T repurchase
& profit
ARE = NI- dividend -

repurchase
. .
equity
↑ Ste (investment >
-

financial income
.

Firms :

Start-ups cashc marketable securities high liquidity asset.

-

: . -

Growth ST2LT debt

-

Cashcow :
payout debt ; ↑div and share purchases .

(maturity)

Step 7 :
Projected the statement of cashflow
.

Uses cash ↑ Asset ; ↓ L & E

- of :

L
Sources tasset ; TLcE
of cash : .

Ex :
Sall2022 = 600 mil Salezoss growth 70 basis
point slower than nominal GDP growth

Gross profit margin 2012 = 30 % The growth

late
of sale :
growth rate
of COGS.

6, 7 % Calculate
Nominal GDP growth gross profit 2023
:
-

Real GDP growth : 3%

Items 2022 2023 Explaination

.

Sale 600 mil 696 mil

growth rate of sale : 6 ,7 % -0 , 7 %= 61

CUGS (420mil) 1445 , 2 mil) salegoas = 600 mil (1 + 6 %) = 636 mil

.

30 % = 1- COGS 190 , 8 mil COGS2023 = 420 mil (1 + 6 %) = (445 ,

2 mil)
600 mil
gross profit. 190 , 8 mil.

Sale 600 680/1 + 6 %) 636 mit -> const

(growth whan) :

GPM 30 % 30 % =
GP 1- CGS
=

Sall Sale
GP

flexible account -> balance the balance sheet . 1

.
Fixed cost : 20 % x 240b

WGS
GPM 30 %
= = 1-
Sale
Items N N+ 1 Explainations
Revenue $240b $297 04b . $240b x (1 + 2% ) x (1 + 5 % )
.
= $287 , 4b
-

COGS ($168b) ($167 OFb) , GPM = 39 % = 1-COGS

$267 04b
$486
Grossprofit BFLb $89 97b
.

= 0 2
.
I
, .

$240b
-Depreciation ($20b) ($29b) $20b +
$30b
; FC/Revenue N =
0 2
. .

10
-

Fixed cost ($48b) ($51 46) years > FC/ Revenue 0 2

.
,
N +=
-
.

EBT $46 $13 57b ,

>
-
FC = $51 ,
46

-Income tax exp ($0 .

86) (B2 F1b) . ($13 37b
,
x20 % )
Net income $5 26
.
$10 , 866
$46 x 20 %
~

2
. Total (cE = $50 + $130 + $10 + RE end N +.1

Total asset = $300

REend =
REbeg + NI-dir-share repurchase
N+

REend = $300 -

$80 -

$130 -

$100 = $20
N+ 1

>
-
$20b = $12b + $10, 86b-dividends >
-
dividend = $2 06b
.
 Flexible account :
long-term debt

Interest rate = 10 %

N+ 1 N+ 1 adjusted se : interest exp

Revenue $297 04b .

-
long-term debt : L x 10 %
↳ interest rate
COGs ($167 OFb) ,

Gross profit $89 97b ,

Depreciation ($29b)
Fixed cost ($31 46) , X A = L + E

EBT $13 57b , $13 57b ,

-

X $300 = $130 + 102 + $90 + RE end

incometax exp ($2 F1b) , 20 % ($13 ,

97b -

x) $120 = 10K-REend

NI .
$10 , 866 $13 576-x
,
-

$2 , 714b + 0 2x.
RE end = $120 1OK
. -

↓
$10 8566-0 84
, .
.

REend =
REbeg + NI-div => $120 -
10K = $12b + $10, 896-0 .
84 -
dir
- tax >
-
CAPM = Rf + B(RM-Rf)
TOPICS : COST OF CAPITAL debt , equity WACC :
mighted average cost
of capital .

=Waxed (1-t) +
WE X ME
L

Cost of debt -
after tax common stock
/
preferred stockEX :
↓..
Cost of CAPM RE Rf B( Rm-Rf) Scenario 1 No debt 120 %
Equity RE NACC RE Rf B(Rm-Rf)
equity UE
>
-
: : =
+ : -> + = =
+

-
6 % + 1 09 (Rm-6 %)
PP P
plchare P
B 0 95 Rf B(Rm-Rf) 16 %
rps
>
-
/
= + =
= =
= . .

preferred. Pp r
Scenario 2 Debt 30 % total Rm 9 52 %
: = >
-
-

Rf = .

NC Equity = FO % Aotal . RE =
Rf +
B(Rm-Rf)
>
-
WACC : WE Y VE +
Wp X Vd(1t)
+
Wpxrp
>
-
RRTP +
you can mc B mo. ↑T = 1 05
. RE =
6% + 0 99. x , 92 %
9

↳ in tien market value ~

market risk RE = 15 04 % .

After tax cost 7 3% WACC 15 04 %

of debt : .

,
= .

6% WACC2 30 % F 5% 70 % 16 %
RE 16 %;
= Rf = = x .
+ x = 13 45 %
.

~ Should the
company change its
capital structure ? - should change because WACCH

When
changes capital structure -
require return
of equity owner +

TOPIC6 : DIVIDEND DISCOUNTED MODEL

>
-
dividend : Do D1
↓
hien tai -

I paid ,
in the (expected to
pay
current)

theo mo hinh has whan : total div >

-

Equity value
.
x
Polshare
D D D + 10 + Do = D1
. > Po
D >
-

pershare >
-

simple
-
=

! 1
1
! equity
↓
RE
value
g

simple with I P1 DO(1 + G) >

-
Po D Do(1tg)
'
= = =

growth o I L
rE-q rE-g

2-3
stages qge -
92
T
I 3
+ 0
Di , Da .
.
.
Dt

Dt + 1 Dt(1 + G2) Do(1 +g1)+ (1 + 92)

Vt(continuing value) = =
=

(E-g2) (rE-g2) (re-gc)

Clean surplus accounting
Div Comprehensive income (BV of equity
= +
Changes in book value
of equity +1
-BV of
equityt)
↓ NI + OCI
> expected payout
-
ratio .

Chapter 8 link with Chap 6 :

P
;
P
leading PIE =
Po
=
De 1

E B En El 're-g
De Po Di R Do(1 + G)
Link P
> dividend : - I stage ;
q
Po
trailing PIE =
-

= = * =

Dir
dir ratio
r-
E g Eo Eo
rE-g Eo(re-g)
>
-

payout ↓
EPS
current payout ratio
 TOPIC F :

FCFF Firm value >

-
WACC

FOFE
Equity value
. RE
+

Firm value = MV
of debt +
Equity value + Preferred +
Minority (MV)
Cach discount
giong Chap 6

AI NF
FCFF EV : enterprise value
firm value
t
EV high liquid asset. I
EBITDA
- cash 2 market
A
short-term securities
. MofDebt
CFO >
-

EV investment. : Plshare

FF Firm value High

EV
>
MVogEquity
-
-

liquid asset = EV
. Minority

B
RM-Rf
Rf

.
a RE =
Rf ACRm-Rf)
+

= 3% + 1 2 5%
. .

= 9%

WACC
Wp x rd(1-t) WEX
+
=
VE

= 40 % x 71 (1-20 % )
.
+ 60 % x 9%

= F 64 %
.

b
. FCFFo : $20M

Do $10m 3 %; 3%
=
; 91 =
G2 =

Do = $10m
91
92 $10m( 1+ 5 %)
Di = $10 5m
!
=
<

i'
.

O 1
Da = $10 .
Sm (1 + 5 % ) = $11 023m
.

E $10M X (1 + 3 %)t
t
$10m(1 + 5 %) 5 (1+ 3%) Vs =
DG
=
P5(1 + 92)
=
Do (1 + q1) =(1 + 92)
D = DM1 025m (1 5 % )
.
+ =
$11, 976m
til t
(1+ 9 % ) (9 % -3.) (1 9 %)5 re-gz re-g2
re-g2
$11 , 376m(1+ 3 %)
+
D4 =
= $12 , 15m

total equity
= $187. Isa Dj = $12 13m (1 + 3 %)
,
= D12 76m
.

$187 15m $12 76m (1 + 3 %)

Equity value per share =
.

=
$3 74 . <market price : $5 Vs =
.

= $219 04m
.
.

Som chare I share price) .

9 % -3 %

>
-
Overvalued
.

C .

I FCFF(1g1) t
#CFFo(1 + g1)5 (1 + q2)
t 1 +
=
(1 + WACC) (WACC-q) (1 + WACC)
E $20m (1 + 5 %) (1 + 3 %)
+ *
$20m(1 + 5%
t
= $483m (Firm value
t=1 t
(1 + 7 64 % ) 17 64 % -3 % ) (1 + 7 64% )5 value $485m -$100m
.

equity
. .

= $385m >
-
$383m/50m = $7 F.
.
-
underpriced.