The Development of the Cold War

END OF COLD WAR

Seminar 14: Analysis
framework for explaining
collapse of the
Soviet Union

COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION

3.7.1 Defining the outcome

The Soviet collapse involved two intertwined processes: the transformation of

the Communist regime and the disintegration of the highly centralised Union.
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Mar: Mikhail Gorbachev elected General Secretary
Feb: Gorbachev pushed for more democracy and
transparency - policy of “glasnost”
Dec: Andrei Sakharov returned from internal exile
Jan: Gorbachev introduced economic
reforms “perestroika”
Rising dissent - Gorbachev’s reforms fit not work as
expected. Continued economic hardship,
independence movements gathered momentum.
Feb: Withdrawal of Soviet forces
from Afghanistan completed
Nov-Dec: Nationalist pressure to adopt national
flags and native languages as state language
Feb: Article 6 of Soviet Constitution, referring to
leading role of Communist Party, was abolished
Feb: Anti-government riots in Tajikistan
Mar: Lithuania declared independence
Mar: Union Treaty proposed and referendum was held -
federation of independent republics with broad autonomy
Throughout 1991 the rest of SSRs declared independence
COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION - WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE?
The human chain connecting the three Baltic capitals – Tallinn,
Riga and Vilnius. (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania)
The protest was designed to draw global attention by
demonstrating a popular desire for independence for each of the
republics.
Collapse of the Soviet Union
1985 Timeline of events
Apr: Chernobyl Disaster, but Soviet govt
1986
stayed silent at the beginning
1987 Dec: INF Treaty signed
Dec: Congress of People’s Deputies established
1988 by Gorbachev to reduce Communist Party control
Dec: Gorbachev announced relaxation of Soviet Union
military control over satellite states (“Sinatra Doctrine”)
Aug: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania formed human chain
1989 “Baltic Way” (500th anniversary of Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact)
Nov: Berlin Wall fell. Throughout 1989 democratic
revolutions spread in Poland, Hungary, East Germany,
Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria and Romania.
1990 Throughout 1990 the SSRs held parliamentary
elections. The Communist Party lost in 6 of 15 states.
May: Latvia declared independence
Sep: Ukrainians demanded independence
1991 Aug: Hardliner Coup; Yeltsin spoke on a tank defying the coup
attempt; Gorbachev returned but with weakened influence
Dec: Gorbachev resigned as President 3
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COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION - WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE?

Lithuanians carry Lithuanian flags in the center of Vilnius on January 10, 1990,
during demonstration asking for the country's independence. The Baltic
republics were in forefront of the struggle for independence and Lithuania was
the first of the Soviet republics to declare independence in March 1990.

COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION - WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE?

Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in animated conversation with residents of Vilnius,

Lithuania, on Thursday, January 11, 1990. Gorbachev was in the Lithuanian capital to
press for reversal of the local communist party's decision to split from Moscow and to
slow the republic's drive for complete independence.

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COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION - WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE?

Soviet mothers who lost their sons in the Red Army are held back by State militia as they hold photographs of
their loved ones in Red Square, on Monday, December 24, 1990. A group of about 200 Soviet parents who have
all lost sons through ethnic violence and accidents within the Soviet armed services demonstrated outside the
Kremlin. 6,000 Soviet service men were killed in 1990. The Soviet Army was strained by the many nationalist
protests and began to show signs of defying orders to crack down on demonstrations.

COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION - WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE?

Hundreds of thousands of protesters pack Moscow's Manezh Square next to the Kremlin, on March 10,
1991, demanding that Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and CPSU give up power. The crowd, estimated
at 500,000, was the biggest anti-government demonstration in the 73 years of since the Communists took
power, and came a week before the nationwide referendum on Gorbachev's union treaty.

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COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION - WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE?

A few weeks before the Coup, Mikhail Gorbachev stands surrounded by his so-called friends, hardliner
members of the Politburo who were soon to be leaders of the August Coup against him. Vice President
Gennady Yanayev, second from right, became the most visible of the Coup leaders. They sought to stop
Gorbachev and the reformers, and the radical nationalists from splitting or changing the nature of the Union.
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COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION - WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE?

Russian President Boris Yeltsin stands atop a tank that had been sent to the Russian Congress
building, rallying the Russians who have gathered to launch a general strike in protest against
the August 1991 coup. His supporters hold the tricolour flag of the Russia SSR behind him.

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COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION - WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE?

After the August Coup is aborted, Gorbachev

returned to Moscow as President. But things had
changed irrevocably - Boris Yeltsin interrupted
Gorbachev and demanded his resignation in front of
live TV cameras, humiliating Gorbachev.
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COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION - WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE?

A young Lithuanian girl sits on the toppled statue of Russian Bolshevik revolutionary leader Vladimir Lenin in
Vilnius after the monument was removed from the center of the Lithuanian capital, on September 1, 1991.

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COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION - WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE?

Citizens of the Ukraine vote on a referendum for

independence from the Soviet Union at the Ukraine
Embassy in Moscow, on December 1, 1991.

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COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION - WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE?

The Presidents of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Russia, the largest SSRs, stand in the foreground as
the leaders of the SSRs announce the formation of the Commonwealth of Independent States to
replace the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics, December 1991.
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WHY DID THE SOVIET UNION COLLAPSE IN 1991?

Causal relationships
External factor
- End of Cold War

Soviet Socialist
Republics

Soviet
leadership
- Gorbachev Structural weaknesses
- Yeltsin and of the Soviet system
nationalists
- Hardliners

- Popular sentiment
- Ethnic nationalism

- US pressure
- Collapse of communism in
Eastern Europe
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WHY DID THE SOVIET UNION COLLAPSE IN 1991?

Causal relationships - the domestic story

Regime change came from the top Union undermined from below

Soviet leadership drove a project of Nationalist elites pressed for greater

Soviet Socialist autonomy from the centre
radical liberalisation which
Republics
transcended the Communist system
of rule Soviet First wave came from
leadership smaller union republics
- Gorbachev
Nationalist leaders championed - Yeltsin and
for radical political change and nationalists Second wave came from the larger
independence from Soviet Union - Hardliners republics (Ukraine and Russia)
- Popular sentiment
- Ethnic nationalism
Russian leadership gave more impetus
Struggle for power between Gorbachev,
to nationalism and progressively
reformers, hardliners in CPSU weakened its
undermined the centre’s capacity to
control over the Soviet Republics
withstand nationalist challenge

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WHY DID THE SOVIET UNION COLLAPSE IN 1991?

Causal relationships - the international factor

US Containment External factor Ripple effect of revolution
Accumulative effect of US containment, - End of Cold War Breakaway of Eastern European
eg arms race deprived resources for
satellite states from Soviet orbit
consumer production, strains on
Soviet Socialist had an inward ripple effect, that
Soviet rule in Eastern Europe & Republics emboldened nationalists in the
Third World (overextension),
Soviet Socialist Republics to
that could have led to Soviet seek independence.
Gorbachev’s assessment leadership
and reforms. - Gorbachev
- Yeltsin and
End of Cold War nationalists
- Hardliners
- Exposure and freer access for
nationalists
- Popular sentiment
- Reinforced Gorbachev’s - Ethnic nationalism
non-coercive approach
- Fuelled hardliners’ opposition to - US pressure
Gorbachev’s foreign policies and - Collapse of communism in
polarisation of domestic politics Eastern Europe

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WHY DID THE SOVIET UNION COLLAPSE IN 1991?

Causal relationships - the systemic story

External factor Longstanding inefficiency of the
- End of Cold War
command economy brought about
economic rigidity and longstanding
Soviet Socialist
Republics stagnation in Soviet economy - this was the
impetus for Gorbachev to reform the
Soviet
system.
leadership
- Gorbachev Structural weaknesses
Longstanding resentment of Soviet
- Yeltsin and of the Soviet system
nationalists political rule had only been suppressed by
- Hardliners tight centralisation of power / political
monopoly of CPSU and brought about
- Popular sentiment
- Ethnic nationalism political opposition or dissent, as well as
rise of nationalist sentiment amongst the
- US pressure SSRs - this was the impetus for Gorbachev
- Collapse of communism in
Eastern Europe to open up the political system.
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ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
End of Cold War vs Collapse of Soviet Union
Factor
1) Inherent weaknesses of centrally-
planned economy
2) Centralisation of power and political
monopoly in the CPSU
3) Gorbachev’s domestic policies:
Glasnost, Perestroika and
Demokratizatsiya
4) Gorbachev’s foreign policies
5) Reagan’s confrontational policies
6) Collapse of communism in Eastern
Europe
7) Nationalist challenge from Soviet
Republics
How did it cause the collapse
How did it end the Cold War?
of Soviet Union?
Forced Gorby to focus on rebuilding and Gorbachev had to introduce reforms to
become more conciliatory towards the US ___________________________ of Soviet Union
Created rigidity in political system, hindered
Developed a culture of ___________ and
Gorby’s policies, thus the need bring about
fostered _________________ against Soviet rule
radical change
Removal of _____________ elements and
Ended _____________________ competition and
____________ the system, led to opposition
_________________ relations with US
toward communist govt
Ended superpower tensions and hostilities, Opposition from hardliners against the less
ended ideology competition coercive means of responding to challenges
Asserted pressure on USSR to become more
External military and economic pressure
___________________ towards the US
___________ nationalist movements in SSRs, set
Dissolved the Cold War ___________________ in
precedent for Soviet govt’s response to
Europe and removing Soviet hegemony
challenge
_______________________ of the Soviet Union
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