Titan -Initiating Coverage - HDFC

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Titan Company Ltd

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Titan Company Ltd
Industry LTP Base Case Fair Value Bull Case Fair Value Recommendation Time Horizon
Retail Rs. 1168 Rs.1192 Rs.1266 Buy on dips in Rs.1087-1091 band and add further on dips to Rs.996-1000 band 2 quarters
Our Take:
HDFC Scrip Code TITCOMEQNR
BSE Code 500114 Titan is one of the largest, most efficient and profitable specialty retailer in India. It has a strong brand parentage with pan-India presence
NSE Code TITAN spread across 1841 stores as on FY20. Jewellery segment continues to be the core business of the company garnering ~80% of overall
Bloomberg TTAN:IN revenues followed by Watches, Eyewear & others. Going forward, in the long term, Indian retail industry landscape is likely to go through
CMP Sept 11, 2020 1167.65 a strong consolidation phase which is likely to benefit companies of the likes of Titan mainly due to its robust balance sheet and
Equity Capital (cr) 88.78 phenomenal track record of consistent market share gains. Also, the managements continued focus on new launches and consistent
Face Value (Rs) 1 expansion of the product portfolio by entering into newer categories is further likely to fuel future growth.
Eq- Share O/S(cr) 88.78
Market Cap (Rscr) 103671 We expect that Covid-19 led lockdown and slowdown in the economy to lead to subdued growth and sluggish operational performance in
Book Value (Rs) 81
FY21. Titan has major revenue and EBIDTA comes from jewellery segment which is highly sensitive to overall macro-economic scenario.
Avg.52 Wk Volume 5546535
Titan also benefits out of a large share of franchisee sales (~655) which helps more in the current times of underutilization.
52 Week High 1389.85
52 Week Low 720.00 Titan is a structural growth story and is a strong play on the consumption theme and rides on the long-term opportunity on rising income,
increased discretionary spending, gains from penetration and premiumisation trends.
Share holding Pattern % (Jun, 2020)
Promoters 52.91
Valuations & Recommendation:
Institutions 28.71
We expect that the company will get benefits from the strong market share in jewellery and wrist watches segment, mainly driven by wide
Non Institutions 18.38
range of product portfolio catering mainly to the premium and value add designer jewellery segment.Covid-19 led lockdown will adversely
Total 100.0 impact with lower revenue growth, adverse operating leverage, expected revenue loss of summer wedding season, which would lead to
5% CAGR in top-line and 5% EPS CAGR over FY20-22E. Its 22% earnings growth in the past 4 years is already among the best in a tough
Fundamental Research Analyst period among its peers quite a few of whom are struggling. Company is trading at 122.80x P/E (Due to recent depressed earnings) which is
Jimit Zaveri due to past decent growth and robust financial but current scenario and lower growth in the near term may result in discount to historical
Jimit.zaveri@hdfcsec.com valuation. Hence we have taken 23% & 16% discount to 5 years median P/E to arrive at fair value. We feel the base case fair value of the
stock is Rs.11192 (64.0x FY22E P/E) and the bull case fair value is Rs.1266 (68x FY22E P/E). Investors could buy the stock on dips to
Rs.1087-1091 band (58.5xFY22E EPS) and further add on dips to Rs.996-1000 band (53.5xFY22E EPS).
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Titan Company Ltd
Financial Summary
Particulars (Rs cr) Q1FY21 Q1FY20 YoY-% Q4FY20 QoQ-% FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Total Operating Income 1979 5151 -62% 4712 -58% 19,778.5 21,051.1 17,041.9 23,108.8
EBITDA -257 572 -145% 612 -142% 1,991.5 2,466.3 1,462.0 2,576.3
APAT -291 364 -180% 346 -184% 1,406.3 1,496.5 768.1 1,653.0
Diluted EPS (Rs) -3.28 4.12 -180% 3.9 -184% 15.8 16.9 8.7 18.6
RoE-% 25.2 22.6 10.7 22.2
P/E (x) 73.7 69.3 135.0 62.7
EV/EBITDA 52.7 42.6 71.8 40.7
(Source: Company, HDFC sec)
Q1FY21 Result Update
• The revenues of the company were impacted due to the complete loss of sales in April, limited number of stores that could be re-
opened in May and June and the gradual recovery in footfall in reopened stores. The revenue of the company has degrown by 62% Y-
o-Y.
• The Company has managed the cash situation very well and the bullion sale of Rs.601 cr helped the Company turn net cash positive in
the quarter despite the low level of revenues.

Segment-wise
• Revenue of Watches segment has posted 89% y-o-y degrowth to Rs.76 cr and EBIT of this segment degrew by 245% y-o-y to Rs.173 cr
of loss.
• Revenue of the Jewellery segment has posted 56% y-o-y degrowth to Rs.1824 cr and EBIT of this segment degrew by 116% y-o-y to
Rs.68 cr of loss. In the jewellery segment hedges became ineffective due to sharp rise in gold prices.
• Revenue of the Eyewear segment has posted 80% y-o-y degrowth to Rs.30 cr and EBIT of this segment has shown increased loss to
Rs.31 cr. The division closed 15 stores during Q1FY21, on net basis, ending up with a reduction of about 8K sq. feet of retail space.
• Revenue of Other segment has posted 38% y-o-y degrowth to Rs.81 cr and EBIT of this segment has shown increased loss to Rs.12 cr.

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Titan Company Ltd
Long term Triggers
Leadership position in wristwatches and jewellery segment with a diversified brand portfolio
Titan is the largest jewellery retailer in India. It has leading jewellery brands such as Tanishq, Zoya, Mia, Caratlane. It has a wide presence
with stores located across India with 460 stores in the jewellery segment including 329 stores of Tanishq present in 200 cities, 4 of Zoya, 38
of Mia, 92 stores of Caratlane. It has 3 manufacturing facilities for the jewellery segment.

Titan is the largest wristwatch company in India with 60% market share in the organized market and 5th largest brand in the world. The
company has different brands across different segments. It has wide distribution network spanning across India including 486 stores of the
world of Titan in 223 towns, 172 Fastrack centre in 83 towns, 76 Helios stores in 37 towns and 11000+ dealers with presence in 30
countries. Its keeps on launching new products to fuel growth and maintain market share. The company has enhanced its focus on
Omnichannel. Currently, 165 stores are connected through the Omnichannel network.

The company also has a leading position in organized eyewear market with 584 retail stores, 3700+ sunglass dealers, 1550+ frame dealers
and 5 online platforms.

Source – Company, HDFC sec Research

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Titan Company Ltd
Titan caters to all different market segment which provides diversification and stability in growth. The company has kept on launching new
products in the same segment as well as new segments such as fragrance and saree division which could fuel growth in future.
Liquidity challenges and inability to dispel customer’s hygiene-related concerns may reduce unorganised players’ ability to compete. This
would further aid Tanishq in gaining market share.
Jewellery demand in India is largely occasion based; wedding jewelry purchases make up 50% of the entire Indian jewelry market while
festivals/occasions (Dhanteras, Akshay Tritiya, anniversary, etc.) make up a large part of the balance 50%.

Source – Company, HDFC sec Research

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Titan Company Ltd
Titan’s Gold Harvest Scheme (GHS) (gold investments SIP) has continued to gain traction (21% of sales already). Titan gets ~45% of its
revenues from gold exchange (33% third party gold and 10-12% Tanishq exchange). Historically prolonged period of gold price increase
drives volume demand improvement. Also making charges are a % of sales; hence rising gold prices could be to Titan’s advantage.

Government’s focus on hallmarking – now likely from FY22 should drive better market share gains in favour of large organized players like
Titan. With less than 10% share of the Rs.2 trillion jewelry market in India, Titan is well set to take advantage of the shift from unorganized
to organized process that has been under progress over the last few years as its brand is amongst the strongest in the consumer/retail
space.

Strong distribution network


The company has strong pan-India presence with well entrenched brands which help the company to grow well. During FY20, under
expansion strategy, many stores were opened across tier 3 and tier 4 towns. A mix of company-owned stores and asset-light franchise
model to strengthen presence.

Source – Company, HDFC sec Research


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Titan Company Ltd
The company keeps harnessing digital capabilities such as video selling, augmented reality and virtual reality to make it easier for
customers to connect with products and make purchases online. CaratLane offers Try@Home service to customers and this facility has
now been extended to other jewellery brands as well.

Source – Company, HDFC sec Research

New product launches


Titan has track record of launching new products every year which help to fuel growth and gain market share further.

Jewellery Division - ‘Mia Classics’, a diamond intensive collection, ’Smolitaires’, a collection of single stone finger rings and ’Sassy Silver’
collection with mother-of-pearl and colour stones embedded in 92.5 sterling silver were among the exciting new launches.

Watches and Wearables Division - Smart products were launched including Titan Connected, a full touchscreen smartwatch with analogue
hands. ‘Raga Cocktails’ collection with Swarovski crystals at the premium end, ‘Raga Viva III’ at affordable prices and ‘Raga Facets’ – a

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Titan Company Ltd
collection inspired by the amalgamation of different shapes, materials, finishes and colours were the new creations. Few other launches
include - ‘Game of Thrones’ collection, ‘Road Trip’ collection, ‘Space collection’, ‘Sonata Stride’, etc.

Eyewear Division - Under the Titan brand, a major launch was the ’Titan Signature’ collection in the category of frames. The company has
also introduced in-house designed Titan lens ‘Clear Sight’ having best in-class scratch resistance and clarity. In sunglasses, ’Titan Midnight
Sun’ collection was launched. Titan also launched new collections for sunglasses under Fastrack brand, including debut into smart
sunglasses through Fastrack audio and a lightweight collection called ‘Floatables’.

Source – Company, HDFC sec Research

Decent financial profile


Titan has strong return ratios, strong Cashflow from operation and Free Cash flow which helps it to grow well. Also, it helps to deploy
some part of the fund into a new ventures/products to fuel future growth.

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Titan Company Ltd

Source – Company, HDFC sec Research


It has capital employed in eyewear, Accessories, Fragrances and Taneira of Rs.730 cr in FY20, which is just a 10% of the entire networth so
even if the company fails in any of these ventures then also it will not be impact its overall financials majorly as its other business
segments have good return ratios and efficiency which help to strengthen the balance sheet. Capital employed in Jewellery division is high
due to the higher inventory which has gone up on account of increase in Gold prices, despite the reduction in the quantity of Gold
inventory.

Source – Company, HDFC sec Research

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Titan Company Ltd
The company spending huge amount to brand building which fuel future growth and attract customers.

Source – Company, HDFC sec Research


Part of TATA group
Titan is a part of the TATA Group of Companies, which holds 25.04% in it. Tatas is one of India’s largest business conglomerates. This lends
the company strong financial flexibility while also supporting its brand equity and customer acceptance of new product launches. TATA
group gives confidence to the customer over peers’ brands which helps the company to revive sales as things started getting normal.

What could go wrong


Lockdown and slowdown of economy will hurt
India has witnessed a Covid-19 led lockdown which has impacted economic activities adversely. A shutdown of retail shops and dealer
network has resulted in a sharp fall in revenues of the company. Management expects wedding-based sales to revive in H2FY21 and it
targets to recover (run-rate wise) by exit Q4FY21. Wedding contribution to FY20 stands at 23% of jewellery sales (wedding jewellery has
lower margins). Due to the outbreak of Covid-19, many couples have chosen to postpone their weddings to the winter season of 2020 or
the beginning of 2021.

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Titan Company Ltd
The jewellery industry has missed one of the main gold-selling day - Akshaya Tritiya. Now people are short of savings and they may sell
their savings in gold to jewellers. Earlier also, scrap gold came into the market but this time they will sell gold but may not replace it with
new jewellery. Volatility in the price of gold can also hurt consumer sentiments.

There could be some excessive discounting in select geographies as peers attempt at liquidating their inventory pile up. This coupled with
the higher reliance on Gold Exchange Scheme, wedding sales, lower studded ratio and higher one-time gold re-sale could create pressure
on gross margin.
Sales recovery as on June 2020

Source – Company, HDFC sec Research

The competitive industry creates pressure on growth and margin


Higher inventories with the industry due to lockdown could invite a price war to liquidate inventories which will adversely impact on the
profitability margin. In the jewellery segment, competition from other organised jewellery retailers who are expanding their geographic
presence could pose competition to Titan in the long term. In the eyewear segment, the margins of the company have been modest
despite its leadership position due to intense competition from local as well as online retailers.
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Titan Company Ltd
Watches segment on a structural decline
Due to the advent of mobiles, smartwatches and other personal products, demand for replacement of watches has fallen sharply. Watches
volume growth started to fall even before Covid -1% in Q2FY20, -10% in Q3, -5% in Q4 and -93% in Q1FY21.
Non-discretionary spending on jewellery could be severely impacted as preserving cash would take a toll on spending on luxury items.
Titan may need to support its franchisee partners by higher margin/schemes and elongated credit period so as to help them to keep their
business running.
Regulatory risk in the jewellery industry
Certain adverse regulatory developments have impacted the domestic gold jewellery industry in the past. Restrictions on bullion imports
and metal loan funding, mandatory PAN disclosure on transactions, the imposition of excise duty, and increase in customs duty are some
of the adverse regulatory developments over the last four years. Titan will remain exposed to such and other risks from any such future
regulatory actions that impact its business profile.
Lower footfalls, uncertain discretionary consumption outlook, lower studded share are some other concerns faced by the company. Also
both jewellery and watches volumes have been degrowing YoY since Q2FY20. Profit growth has been a result of product mix, and cost
control. This can however not last for long.
About Company
The Titan Company Limited (Titan) founded in 1984 as a joint venture between the TATA Group and Tamil Nadu Industrial Development
Corporation (TIDCO). At present, the Tata Group and TIDCO hold 25.04% and 27.88% shares, respectively, in Titan. It is the fifth-largest
branded watch manufacturer in the world and market leader in the domestic wristwatch industry. It also has a leadership position in the
domestic branded jewellery markets. Titan has later on expanded to eyewear and other business segments.
Business segment

Source – Company, HDFC sec Research

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Titan Company Ltd
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet
(Rs Cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E As at March FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Net Revenue 16119.8 19778.5 21051.1 17041.9 23108.8 SOURCE OF FUNDS
Growth (%) 21.6 22.7 6.4 -19.0 35.6 Share Capital 89 89 89 89 89
Operating Expenses 14475.1 17787.0 18584.8 15579.9 20532.6 Reserves 5001 5981 7102 7026 7702
EBITDA 1644.7 1991.5 2466.3 1462.0 2576.3 Minority Interest -2 14 14 14 14
Growth (%) 42.3 21.1 23.8 -40.7 76.2 Other Equity & Liabilities 0 0 0 0 0
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.2 10.1 11.7 8.6 11.1 Shareholders' Funds 5088 6084 7205 7129 7805
Other Income 88.9 182.9 153.2 93.7 198.6 Long Term Debt 0 32 17 17 17
Depreciation 131.4 162.8 348.0 373.9 384.5 Long Term Provisions & Others 121 137 165 206 257
EBIT 1602.1 2011.6 2271.5 1181.8 2390.4 Total Source of Funds 5209 6253 7387 7352 8080
Interest 52.9 52.5 166.4 154.6 181.9 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
PBT 1549.2 1959.1 2105.1 1027.2 2208.5 Net Block 1495 1574 1585 1596 1607
Tax 427.9 568.2 609.0 259.5 555.9 Non-Current Investments 57 63 114 123 123
RPAT 1121.3 1390.8 1496.1 767.7 1652.6 Deferred Tax Assets (net) 36 74 0 0 0
Minority Int. 28.2 15.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Long Term Loans & Advances 336 416 610 850 1369
APAT 1149.5 1406.3 1496.5 768.1 1653.0 Other Assets 0 0 0 0 0
Growth (%) 40.9 22.3 6.4 -48.7 115.2 Total Non Current Assets 1923 2128 2309 2570 3100
EPS 12.9 15.8 16.9 8.7 18.6 Current Investments 2 69 104 104 104
Inventories 5925 7039 8103 6269 8184
Trade Receivables 296 420 312 296 402
Short term Loans & Advances 650 762 1142 1485 1931
Cash & Equivalents 618 1066 3742 4477 3123
Other Current Assets 111 231 346 350 357
Total Current Assets 7601 9587 13749 12981 14100
Short-Term Borrowings 1691 2353 3529 3529 3655
Trade Payables 878 906 2928 2454 3206
Other Current Liab & Provisions 1700 2128 2128 2128 2170
Short-Term Provisions 47 75 86 86 88
Total Current Liabilities 4315 5462 8671 8198 9120
Net Current Assets 3286 4125 5078 4783 4980
Total Application of Funds 5209 6253 7387 7352 8080
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Titan Company Ltd
Cash Flow Statement Key Ratios
(Rs Cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E
Reported PBT 1,549 1,959 2,105 1,027 2,208 Profitability (%)
Non-operating & EO items -89 -183 -153 -94 -199 EBITDA Margin 10.20 10.07 11.72 8.58 11.15
Interest Expenses 53 53 166 155 182 EBIT Margin 9.94 10.17 10.79 6.93 10.34
Depreciation 131 163 348 374 384 APAT Margin 6.96 7.03 7.11 4.50 7.15
Working Capital Change -739 -391 1,723 1,031 -1,552 RoE 24.66 25.20 22.57 10.74 22.18
Tax Paid -428 -568 -609 -259 -556 RoCE 30.76 32.17 30.75 16.07 29.59
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 478 1,032 3,580 2,233 469 Solvency Ratio
Capex 80 112 -359 -385 -395 D/E 0.33 0.39 0.49 0.50 0.47
Free Cash Flow 558 1,144 3,221 1,848 73 Interest Coverage 30.27 38.29 13.65 7.64 13.14
Investments 36 -125 -171 -249 -519 PER SHARE DATA
Non-operating income 89 183 153 94 199 EPS 12.95 15.84 16.86 8.65 18.62
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) 205 170 -376 -540 -716 CEPS 14.43 17.67 20.78 12.86 22.95
Debt Issuance / (Repaid) -1 48 13 41 51 BV 57.33 68.37 80.99 80.14 87.75
Interest Expenses -53 -53 -166 -155 -182 Dividend 3.80 5.00 4.00 9.50 11.00
FCFE 505 1,140 3,068 1,735 -57 Turnover Ratios (days)
Share Capital Issuance -28 16 0 0 0 Debtor days 6.70 7.76 5.41 6.35 6.35
Dividend -337 -449 -376 -843 -977 Inventory days 122.84 119.62 140.50 134.26 129.27
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) -419 -437 -529 -957 -1,107 Creditors days 20.94 18.30 57.50 57.50 57.00
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 264 765 2,675 736 -1,354 Working Capital Days 108.60 109.08 88.41 83.11 78.62
VALUATION
P/E 90.2 73.7 69.3 135.0 62.7
P/BV 20.4 17.1 14.4 14.6 13.3
EV/EBITDA 63.8 52.7 42.6 71.8 40.7
Dividend Yield 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.9
Dividend Payout 8.5 31.6 23.7 109.8 59.1
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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Titan Company Ltd
One Year Price Chart

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

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Titan Company Ltd
Disclosure:
I, Jimit Zaveri, MBA, author and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also
certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately
preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.

Any holding in stock –No


HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

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