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Instructions

ˆ Before starting the exam, make sure that your exam booklet contains 8 pages, including this
cover page and the formula sheet on the last page.
Question Marks
ˆ All numeric answers should be written either as a number to three decimal places (unless the
Q1 8
answer is exact to fewer than three decimal places) or as a fraction reduced to its lowest terms.
Q2 5
ˆ Always show all your workings out. An incorrect answer may receive credit if all workings are
provided. An incorrect answer with no working will receive zero marks. Q3 7
Q4 10
ˆ You are allowed to use a non-programmable calculator. No other aid is allowed.
Total 30
ˆ Please put your Watcard on the table/desk next to you, so that the proctors can verify your identity.

ˆ Enter your answers in the space provided after each question. You may use the last pages of this
exam booklet if you run out of space to answer a question. Please indicate if you have done so.
ˆ Good luck!
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1. [8 marks] The probability that a bit transmitted through a digital transmission channel is received in error is 0.05. Assume
that the transmissions are independent events.

(a) [3 marks] What is the probability that the first five bits are transmitted correctly before the first error? Define the
random variable of interest and justify its distribution before calculating the probability.

Let X be the number of bits transmitted correctly before the first bit transmitted in error. X ∼ Geo(p = 0.05).
Justification for the distribution:
- Bits are either transmitted in error or correctly (i.e., only two possible outcomes)
- Transmission of bits are assumed to happen independently (i.e, independent trails)
- Probability that a bit is transmitted in error is constant or fixed (i.e., P(success) = 0.05)
Thus, P (X = 5) = 0.05(1 − 0.05)5 = 0.039.

(b) [1 mark] What is the mean number of transmissions until the first error?

Let Y be the number of transmissions until the first error. That is, Y = X + 1. Thus,
E(Y ) = E(X + 1) = E(X) + 1 = 1−0.05
0.05 + 1 = 20.

(c) [1 mark] What is the standard deviation of the random variable you defined in part (a)?

p q
SD(X) = V ar(X) = 1−p
p2 = 19.494.

(d) [1 mark] What is the probability that at least two bits are transmitted correctly before the first error?

P (X ≥ 2) = 1 − P (X < 2) = 1 − P (X = 0) − P (X = 1) = 1 − 0.05(1 − 0.05)0 − 0.05(1 − 0.05)1 = 0.903.

(e) [2 marks] What is the probability that at least three bits are transmitted correctly before the first error, given that
at least one was transmitted correctly?

∩ X≥1)
Long answer: P (X ≥ 3|X ≥ 1) = P (X≥3P (X≥1) =PP (X≥3) 1−P (X≤2)
(X≥1) = 1−P (X=0) =
0.857375
0.95 = 0.903.
Quick answer: P (X ≥ 3|X ≥ 1) = P [X ≥ (3 − 1)] = P (X ≥ 2) = 0.903, according to the ”memoryless” property of
the Geometric distribution (see Q. 14 of the Chapter 5 problems).
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2. [5 marks] In a clinical study, volunteers are tested independently for a gene that has been found to increase the risk of a
disease. The probability that a person carries the gene is 0.25.

(a) [2 marks] What is the probability that six or more people need to be tested to detect four with the gene? Clearly
define the random variable of interest and state its distribution before calculating the probability.

Let X be the number of people without the gene to test before detecting four who carry the gene. X ∼ N B(k =
4, p = 0.25). Thus, the required probability is:


P (X ≥ 2) = 1 − P (X = 0) − P (X = 1) = 1 − 30 0.254 (1 − 0.25)0 − 41 0.254 (1 − 0.25)1 = 0.984.

(b) [1 mark] What is the expected number of people without the gene to test before detecting four with the gene?

E(X) = k 1−p 1−0.25

p = 4 0.25 = 12.

(c) [1 mark] What is the standard deviation of the number of people to test before detecting four with the gene?
p q q
SD(X) = V ar(X) = k 1−p
p2 = 4 1−0.25
0.252 = 6.928.

(d) [1 mark] What is the expected number of people to test until detecting four with the gene?

Let Y be the number of people to test until detecting four with the gene. Then, Y = X + 4, and
E(Y ) = E(X + 4) = E(X) + 4 = 16.
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3. [7 marks] The Toronto Raptors play the Golden State Warriors in a best of 11 series (i.e., the first team to win 6 of the
11 games wins the series). The Raptors win each game they play with 75% probability, independent of other games.

(a) [2 marks] What is the probability the Raptors win their 1st game on the 6th game of the series? Clearly define the
random variable of interest and state its distribution before calculating the probability.

Let X be the number of games the Raptors lose before they win their first game. Then, X ∼ Geo(p = 0.75). Thus,
P (1st win on 6th game) = P (X = 5) = 0.75(1 − 0.75)5 = 0.001.

(b) [2 marks] What is the probability the Raptors win the series on the 7th game of the series? Clearly define the
random variable of interest and state its distribution before calculating the probability.

before they win the series. Then, X ∼ N B(k = 6, p = 0.75). Thus,

Let X be the number of games the Raptors lose
P (Win series on 7th game) = P (X = 1) = 61 0.756 (1 − 0.75)1 = 0.267.

(c) [3 marks] What is the probability that the Raptors win the series in 7 games or less? Clearly define the random
variable of interest and state its distribution before calculating the probability.

Let X be the number of games the Raptors lose before they win
the series. Then, X
∼ N B(k = 6, p = 0.75). Thus,
P (Win series in 6 or less games) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) = 50 0.756 (1 − 0.75)0 + 61 0.756 (1 − 0.75)1 = 0.445.
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4. [10 marks] Contamination is a problem in the manufacturing of magnetic storage disks. Assume that the number of
particles of contamination that occur on a disk surface has a Poisson distribution, and the average number of particles per
square centimeter of disk surface is 0.16. The area of a disk under study is 100 square centimeters.

(a) [2 marks] Determine the probability that 14 particles occur in the area of a disk under study. Clearly define the
random variable of interest and state its distribution before calculating the probability.

Let X be the number of particles of contamination that occur in the area of a disk under study.
−16 14
Then, X ∼ P oi(µ = 16). Thus, P (X = 14) = e 14!16 = 0.093.

(b) [2 marks] Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the number of particles that occur in the area of a disk
under study.

= 0.16 × 100 = 16. √

E(X) = µ p
√
SD(X) = V ar(X) = µ = 16 = 4.

(c) [2 marks] How many square centimeters of disk area must be studied so that the probability of one or more particle
occurrence exceeds 70%?

Here, we solve for a such that P (X ≥ 1) > 0.70, where X ∼ P oi(µ = 0.16a).

P (X ≥ 1) > 0.70 =⇒ P (X = 0) < 0.30

=⇒ e−0.16a < 0.30
log(0.30)
=⇒ a>− = 7.525 square centimeteres.
0.16

(d) [2 marks] The manufacturer randomly selects two disks to check. On the two disks it is noted that they have 20
particles of contamination. Given this, what is the probability that the first disk has 12 particles of contamination?

Let X1 and X2 denote the number of particles of contamination that occur in the area of disk 1 and disk 2, respec-
tively. Then, X1 ∼ P oi(µ = 16), X2 ∼ P oi(µ = 16), and X1 + X2 ∼ P oi(µ = 0.16 × 200 = 32). Thus,
∩ X1 +X2 =20) 1 =12 ∩ X2 =8)
P (X1 = 12|X1 +X2 = 20) = P (X1P=12
(X1 +X2 =20) = P (XP (X1 +X2 =20) = P (X 1 =12)P (X2 =8)
P (X1 +X2 =20) , by independence. Therefore,
e−16 1612 e−16 168

16 20
P (X1 = 12|X1 + X2 = 20) = P (X 1 =12)P (X2 =8)
P (X1 +X2 =20) = 12!
e−32 3220
8! 20!
= 12!8! 32 = 0.120.
20!

(e) [2 marks] For product quality control the manufacturer periodically checks disks individually as they are being pro-
duced. If a disk is found to have 14 particles on it, it will be discarded. Find the probability that the manufacturer
will need to check a total of 10 disks to discard 2. Define the random variable and its distribution before calculating
the probability.

Let X be the number of disks without 14 particles on them

to check before discarding two of them.
Then X ∼ N B(k = 2, p = 0.093). Thus, P (X = 8) = 98 0.0932 (1 − 0.093)8 = 0.036.
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Intentionally left blank for rough work
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Formula sheet for STAT 230 S24 Tutorial Test 2

Distribution Discrete Uniform Binomial Hypergeometric Geometric Negative Binomial Poisson

Shortcut U(a, b) Bin(n, p) hyp(N, r, n) Geo(p) NB(k, p) Poi(µ)
x ⩾ max{0, n − N + r}
Range {a, a + 1, . . . , b} {1, 2, . . . , n} {0, 1, . . . } {0, 1, . . . } {0, 1, . . . }
x ⩽ min{r, n}
1 n

(r )(N −r) x+k−1

e−µ µx
p.f f (x) = f (x) = px (1 − p)n−x f (x) = x Nn−x f (x) = p(1 − p)x f (x) = pk (1 − p)x f (x) =
b−a+1 x (n) x x!
[x]−a+1
CDF F (x) = b−a+1 N/A N/A F (x) = 1 − (1 − p)[x]+1 N/A N/A
1−p
Expectation E[X] = a+b
2 E[X] = np E[X] = n Nr E[X] = p E[X] = k 1−p
p E[X] = µ
2
−1
 N −n 
Variance Var(X) = (b−a+1)
12 Var(X) = np(1 − p) Var(X) = n Nr 1 − r
N N −1 Var(X) = (1−p)
p2 Var(X) = (1−p)
p2 k Var(X) = µ
n large and p small N, r large, n relatively small
Approximation – – – –
X → Poi(µ = np) X → Bin(n, r/N )