Transportation Modeling

Transport Modeling Example

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 Example (From generation up to assignment):

 Linear regression analysis yields the following zone-based

equations for the two relevant dependent variables (zonal
trip productions and zonal trip attractions) as follows:
 P = (3 x population) - 500

 A = (3 x # employed) + (75 x office floor space, m2) + 400

 The next table gives zonal trip generation factors for the
design year, together with the trip productions and
attractions estimated from these factors using above
equations.

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 Table: Trip productions and attractions for the design year
(10 years after baseline year)

 P = (3 x population) - 500
 A = (3 x # employed) + (75 x office floor space, m2) + 400
 For example, in the case of zone A:
 Trips produced = 3 x 7500 - 500 = 22 000
 Trips attracted = (3 x 775) + (75 x 50) + 400 = 6475
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 Assume a study area is divided into seven zones
(A, B, C, D, E, F & G)


 Transport planners wish to estimate the volume of car traffic

for each of the links within the network for ten years into the
future (termed the design year).
 Using land use data compiled from the baseline year on the
trips attracted to and generated by each zone, together with
information on the three main trip generation factors for each
of the seven zones:
 Population (trip productions)

 Retail floor area (trip attractions)

 Employment levels (trip attractions)

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 Transportation Modeling
 Consider: Transport network showing traffic analysis zones
and links below

 From the previous table, calculate a projected trip distribution

matrix using a gravity model with the deterrence function in
the following form between zone i and zone j: Fij = cij-2

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 Table: Inter-zonal travel times (minutes)

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 Table: Gravity model computations* for Zone A

 *Note that its the attraction (6475) being distributed here

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 Table: Initial gravity model trip table

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 In the Initial Trip Matrix Table generated above, the columns
of the resulting interchange matrix will sum up with the
number of trips attracted in each zone.
 However, the rows when summed will not give the correct
number of trips produced in each zone.
 In order to generate a matrix where row and column values sum
correctly, an iterative correction procedure, termed the row–
column factor technique, can be used as demonstrated on
the next slide.

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 Table: Modified trip table (row correction of initial gravity

model trip matrix)

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 Table: Modified trip table (column correction of initial gravity

model trip matrix)

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 Table: Final* corrected trip matrix

 *Note that the final corrected trip matrix is arrived at after many iterrations!

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 Modal split
 Two modes of travel are available to all trip makers within the
interchange matrix:
 bus and private car.

 In order to determine the proportion of trips undertaken by

car, the utility of each mode must be estimated.
 The utility functions for the two modes are:
 UCAR = 2.5 - 0.6C - 0.01T

 UBUS = 0.0 - 0.6C - 0.01T

 Where C = cost ($) & T = travel time (minutes)

 For all travelers between each pair of zones:

 The trip by car costs $2.00 more than by bus

 The journey takes 10 minutes longer by bus than by car.

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 Modal split cont’d
 Since the model parameters for the cost and time variables are
the same in above equations the relative utilities of the two
modes can be easily calculated:

 From above, we have;

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 Modal split cont’d
 Since the model parameters for the cost and time variables are
the same in above equations the relative utilities of the two
modes can be easily calculated:
 U(BUS-CAR) = (0.0 -2.5 ) – 0.6[c - (c + 2 )] – 0.01 [(t + 10) – t]
 =-2.5+1.2-0.1 =-1.4

 U(CAR-BUS) = (2.5 -0.0) – 0.6[(c + 2 )-c] – 0.01 [t-(t + 10)]

 =2.5-1.2+0.1 =+1.4

 Where:
 $c = cost of travel by bus

 $(c + 2) = cost of travel by car

 t = travel time by car (in minutes)

 (t + 10) = travel time by bus (in minutes)

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 Modal split cont’d
 The probability of the journey being made by car using:

 So just over 80% of all trips made will be by car.

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 Modal split cont’d
 If we assume that each car has, on average, 1.2 occupants
(pcu/pce), multiplying each cell within table ( final distribution
table) by 0.802 and dividing by 1.2 will deliver a final matrix of
car trips between the seven zones as shown in the next table.

 Table: Inter-zonal trips by car

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 Trip Assignment
 The final stage involves assigning all the car trips in the matrix
within the above table to the various links within the highway
network shown below i.e.,

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 Trip Assignment cont’d
 Taking the information on the interzonal travel times and
using the ‘all-or nothing’ method of traffic assignment, the
zone pairs contributing to the flow along each link can be
established.
 The addition of the flows from each pair along a given link
allows its 2-way flow to be estimated as shown on the next
slide.

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 Trip Assignment cont’d

 Table: 2-way vehicular flows along each link

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 Trip Assignment cont’d

 Interzonal link flows for private vehicles (cars)

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