1

ASF DEVASTATION AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF PORK

SUPPLIERS IN DAVAO CITY

An Undergraduate Thesis
Presented to the Faculty of the
College of Accounting Education

Barlovinto, Rhean

Taglocop, Kathreen Faith

Tee, Shamica

Adviser:

Solaña, Jade

April 2024
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The researchers extend their heartfelt appreciation to all individuals who

contributed to the completion of this research paper. Their active involvement was

instrumental in the success of this project. The researchers would like to express their

gratitude to the following individuals:

Jade D. Solaña, CPA, MBA, our esteemed research adviser, for providing

invaluable guidance and unwavering patience throughout the entire duration of our

study.

Myra T. Miraflores, CPA, MSA, our validator, for offering insightful

suggestions and constructive ideas to enhance the quality of our research.

Jonnel V. Campania, MAT- Math, our statistician, for meticulously computing

and analyzing the gathered data to ensure accuracy in our findings.

Myra T. Miraflores, CPA, MSA, our esteemed panel member, for her valuable

suggestions and recommendations for refining this research paper.

We would like to extend our deepest gratitude to our parents for their

unwavering emotional and financial support from the inception of our research

endeavor.

Special thanks are also due to all the respondents who participated in this

study. Their patience in carefully considering each question and providing honest

responses greatly contributed to the validity of our findings.

Lastly, we offer our sincerest gratitude to the Almighty Father for His

countless blessings throughout this journey, and for granting us good health—

physically, emotionally, spiritually, and mentally.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE
APPROVAL SHEET

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF FIGURES

ABSTRACT

1. INTRODUCTION

2. Review of Related Literature

2.1 Muth’s Rational Expectations Theory

2.2 ASF Devastation

2.2.1 Production

2.2.2 Processing

2.2.3 Distribution

2.2.4 Consumption

2.3 Financial Performance of Pork Suppliers

2.3.1 Return on Investment

2.3.2 Revenue

2.3.3 Income

2.4 Relationship

2.5 Method

2.6 Synthesis

3. Conceptual Framework

4. Objectives of the Study

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5. Hypotheses

6. METHODOLOGY

6.1 Research Design

6.2 Research Respondents

6.3 Research Instrument

6.4 Data Gathering Procedure

6.5 Data Interpretation

6.6 Statistical Tool

7. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

7.1 Degree of ASF Devastation of Pork Suppliers in Davao City 20

7.2 Level of Financial Performance of Pork Suppliers in Davao City 23

7.3 Correlation between ASF Devastation and Financial Performance 25

7.4 Domain of ASF Devastation significantly influences the Financial 26

Performance

8. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 27

8.1 Summary of Findings

8.2 Conclusion

8.3 Limitations of the Study

8.4 Recommendations

REFERENCES

APPENDICES 35
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LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Page

1 Level of ASF Devastation 20

2 Level of Financial Performance 23

3 Correlation between ASF Devastation and Financial 25

Performance

4 Domain of ASF Devastation significantly influences 26

the Financial Performance
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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No. Page

1 Level of ASF Devastation 20

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ABSTRACT

The outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) has resulted in significant financial losses
across the pork industry, affecting both large businesses and small-scale farmers due
to reduced hog meat supply. This study aims to analyze the impact of ASF on pork
suppliers in Davao City, Philippines, by assessing ASF devastation across production,
processing, distribution, and consumption. Additionally, it seeks to evaluate financial
performance indicators such as return on investment, revenue, and income, and
identify significant factors influencing financial performance. Employing a
descriptive-correlation research design, this study utilizes mean, standard deviation,
Pearson r, and regression analysis to assess the correlation between ASF devastation
and financial performance among pork suppliers in Davao City. The findings
underscore the substantial economic losses endured by farmers, particularly medium-
and large-scale producers heavily reliant on pig farming, due to the ASF outbreak.
Adaptation measures, government support, market adjustments, and collaborative
efforts are highlighted as essential for mitigating the impact of ASF on production and
financial performance throughout the pork supply chain. To mitigate the impact of
ASF outbreaks and maintain business resilience, pork suppliers are recommended to
enforce stringent biosecurity protocols, invest in disease-resistant breeding programs,
diversify product offerings, foster collaboration among stakeholders, advocate for
clearer support policies, and educate consumers about ASF and pork safety measures.

Key words: Adaptation measures, biosecurity protocols, disease-resistant breeding

programs, diversification, regression analysis and consumer education

SDG Indicator: #2 (Zero Hunger), #8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth)

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1. INTRODUCTION

Big businesses and small-scale livestock farmers alike suffered financially

because of ASF. When there is a decrease in the supply of hog meat, the suppliers in

the pork supply chain will struggle economically. Many farmers struggled financially

because they could no longer regain their investment with their swine livestock, not

just those affected were killed but all of the pigs to avoid contamination. Cartels also

lost their projected earnings because they could no longer generate their capital, there

are no pigs to purchase while slaughter houses must content themselves with cows

and other animals limiting their income to the usual profit they have. Distributors

must also be contented with other meat products reducing their profit affecting them

economically, and the meat vendors in the supply chain suffer the most because their

income goes down dramatically affecting their financial obligations, even the

expenses they needed for their respective families (Nguyen-Thi et al., 2021).

The outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) caused severe direct and indirect

economic losses among farmers, particularly medium- and large-farmers whose

livelihoods are largely derived from pig production. The outbreaks also affected other

value chain suppliers due to a halving in the volume of pigs traded. At sector level,

the outbreaks posed adverse impacts on the domestic supply and demand for pork,

especially in the traditional sector. The usual income they have had reduce from

minimum to nothing; the latter was experienced by the cartels because they could not

buy pigs to sell. Luckily, the farmers were given financial assistance by the

government, wherein they were given remuneration for every pig killed. The financial

losses of the pork supply chain suppliers was enormous that others shifted to other

businesses hoping to regain their investments (Chenais et al., 2017).

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The pork supply chain includes many different chain suppliers, such as pig

farmer/producer, slaughterhouse, pork processing companies, various kinds of pork

distributors, meat vendors and pork consumers. Live pig transportation is still

common, and is considered one of the causes for the transmission of pig diseases, due

to unhygienic transport conditions and the spread of diseases from sick pigs to healthy

pigs during transportation. Fresh pork transportation is usually carried out by

slaughtering and processing or logistics companies in vehicles equipped with

professional cooling systems. The spread of African Swine Fever was attributed to

this transport system and the people visiting places taking with them contaminated

meat that spread African Swine Fever (Nastasijević et al., 2017).

There seemed to be paucity of literature concerning the topic, which the

proponents believe necessitate this study to be pursued and fill the existing gap in the

literature concerning the effect of pork shortage to the profit of the people behind the

supply of pork within the context of Davao City. Hence, the study will determine the

baseline data relative to the ASF devastation and financial performance of pork

suppliers in Davao City.

2. REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

This chapter presents the work of various authors on different aspects of the

study. It discusses the theoretical framework, variable literature, method, and

synthesis.

The detrimental effects of ASF on society, particularly economically –

including how they vary across communities, production scales, and value chain

participants was devastating. Backyard farmers' losses caused linked participants in

the value chain, like input suppliers, to suffer large losses. This included notable

variations in livelihood and socioeconomic effects among various suppliers within

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value chains as well as within other actor groups, such as small, medium, and large-

scale traders. The larger effects of ASF on qualitative, measurable components of

livelihoods, both within agricultural households and across wider value chains, have,

however, received less attention (Matsumoto, 2021).

Stakeholders are frantically trying to decide on the best management and/or

control strategies due to the pace and severity of the ASF outbreak in the pig sectors

of Southeast Asia and the Philippines. Due to the importance of pigs in many cultures

and personal lives, ASF has had a significant influence on pig farming systems that is

both tangible and intangible. Additionally, communities and supply chain participants

are varying degrees of vulnerability to the effects of ASF, and as a result, big

enterprises may still carry on with their operations because it costs more to travel to

uncontaminated areas. When numerous smallholders fail, the related value chain

players suffer significant losses as a result of the loss of their collective contribution

(Weaver and Habib, 2020). There will be a concentration of value chain suppliers as

large-scale production takes over the industry, potentially driving out of business tens

of thousands of small-scale pig growers, purchasers, traders, butchers, and meat

vendors (Nguyen-Thi et al., 2021).

Smallholders and beginning commercial farmers are particularly vulnerable to

the disease's financial effects. It has a negative impact on the way of life for many

low-income people that depend on pigs as a source of income, as a way to grow

money, and as "safety nets" during difficult times. Because of ASF, many of these

farmers have lost or may lose their businesses. The loss of standing for international

trade and the price of enacting stringent controls on the disease are two significant

effects of ASF. For instance, it is estimated that about 6 million pigs—or around 20%

of the country's pig population—have been put down in Vietnam since February
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2018. This is important in a nation where the pig industry, estimated at US$4.03

billion, accounts for over 10% of all agricultural output (Rabobank, 2019).

As the world's pig production is in danger, supply-chain conflicts have

increased. In the May 2019 Food Outlook report from the Food and Agriculture

Organization of the United Nations (FAO), it is predicted that the production of meat

will decrease globally due to a decline in the pig meat component, primarily in China.

This gap will not be filled by increases in the production of bovine, poultry, or ovine

meat. As a result, the global meat and animal feed markets are anticipated to be

significantly impacted by ASF (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United

Nations, 2019).

2.1 Muth’s Rational Expectations Theory

The study is anchored on Muth's (1961) Rational Expectations Theory. Muth

introduced the phrase to characterize a variety of situations in which a result depends

in part on what people anticipate happening. The efficient market hypothesis is based

on the dominating assumption model known as the rational expectations theory,

which is utilized in business cycles and finance. The theory of rational expectations is

frequently used by economists to explain projected inflation rates or any other

economic state. For example, if historical inflation rates have been greater than

anticipated, together with other signs, people may interpret this to suggest that future

inflation may likewise be higher than anticipated. In macroeconomics, the rational

expectations theory is a theory and modeling approach that is frequently applied.

According to the theory, people make decisions based on three main considerations:

their human rationality, the facts at hand, and their prior experiences. According to the

hypothesis, people's current expectations for the economy have the power to directly

affect how the economy will develop in the future. Contrary to popular belief,
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government policy does not affect financial and economic choices (Tardi, 2023). The

rational expectations theory is appropriate for the current study, given that the pork

industry's business was significantly impacted by the ASF and that suppliers in the

supply chain had to adjust by shifting their focus to other products until the price of

pork returned to normal and consumers were ready to eat the affected meat product.

2.2 ASF Devastation

Over a third of the Philippines' pig stocks have been wiped off by the African

swine fever (ASF) outbreak, endangering food security in a nation already suffering

from the COVID-19 pandemic's economic effects. Private sector hog farmers

estimated that the true number was closer to 4.7 million heads, or about 36% of the

overall population, who were infected by ASF. ASF has destroyed even breeder stock,

which is crucial for restoring the pork industry, which is worth PHP260 billion ($4.97

billion). In addition, a few hog farmers have reduced their pork output in an effort to

reduce their already estimated US$1.2 billion in business losses. Such huge output

losses directly contribute to the poverty of families who raise livestock, dramatically

lowering their access to healthcare and education, and occasionally even resulting in a

decline in social standing (Corpuz, 2020).

Communities are thrust into a cycle of persistent poverty because without a

vaccine it is impossible to manage the disease in the short term and because it is

challenging to implement strong biosecurity measures. Though it would take some

time, the agriculture department has declared that US$1.7 million will be given aside

for the creation and large-scale manufacturing of ASF test kits created in the country

(Ranola, 2021). The devastating effect of ASF to the supply chain includes the

following:
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2.2.1 Production

Families whose primary source of income and nutrition is pork have been

rendered incompetent by the loss of pork production in small backyard holdings.

People's livelihoods are being severely impacted by the high death rate. Farms with

10–20 pigs and 20–40 piglets are classified as backyard raisers, and commercial farms

have ranging from 21–99 pigs. Without as much government oversight, there are

numerous backyard farmers spread around the nation. Implementing zoning and other

techniques to manage African swine fever in the Philippines has become more

challenging as a result. Majority of the pork sold in nations like the Philippines comes

from small backyard operations, hence the loss of pork most severely affects small

farmers. Hog farming is a common small-business practice in the Philippines, where

the animals are sold at wet markets. Selling pork produced on one's property is a well-

liked and lucrative source of income for Filipinos. The value of the pork reduces as a

result of sick pigs exhibiting signs including lesions in the spleen, liver, and kidneys,

which lowers the income of nearby farmers (Corpuz, 2020).

2.2.2 Processing

The world's meat production has declined for the first time in 20 years due to

African swine flu (ASF). The quality of processed meat decreased, and samples were

taken to ensure that the meat was free of ASF contamination. Since there is presently

no vaccination, the disease's failure to be contained is predicted to put pressure on the

world's processed pork markets. Prices for processed beef and pork products

increased as a result of ASF because consumers checked the production date to make

sure it was done before the epidemic. Despite being safe for humans to consume, ASF

in pigs’ results in high fever, internal bleeding, and almost always results in the

animal's death within a few weeks (Kivumbi, et. al, (2021).

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2.2.3 Distribution

ASF has sparked an unprecedented global response, with nations enacting

trade restrictions to guarantee a steady supply of domestic agricultural products

restricted to the ASF-affected local area. As a result, there is now more uncertainty

around trade policy, supply chain movement has slowed, and overall demand has

decreased. Pork meat was exclusively distributed inside unaffected areas to prevent

the spread of ASF, and areas heavily impacted by the disease depended on imported

pigs, which was more expensive than pork from the local area (Chen, Zhao, et. al ,

(2020).

2.2.4 Consumption

Because of pig illnesses and deaths, those who purchase meat from wet

markets for their personal consumption risk malnutrition from a shortage of protein.

Due to a recent scarcity of pig, prices for beef, poultry, and pork have climbed along

with the worldwide value shift. As a result, rural people now have much less access to

protein of any kind. The sickness has had a significant ripple effect on international

trade. Food imports were decreased as a result of the rise in the value of meat

worldwide. In fact, the price of pork was PHP 250 ($5.20) in July 2020, but it had

increased to PHP 400 ($8.30) in January 2021. That is nearly the daily wage that

laborers in the most heavily populated cities of the Philippines received (Ranola,

2021).

2.3 Financial Performance of Pork Suppliers

Due to the high death rate in pig herds and market disruptions caused by ASF

incursions, afflicted pig sectors can suffer significant economic losses. The first ASF

outbreak in East and Southeast Asia began in China in 2018, the country that is home

to half of the world's pig population, and it resulted in the death and culling of 40% of
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its pig population. Since then, it has spread throughout the entire area. In the absence

of a reliable vaccine, ASF can result in up to 100% of pig deaths and is challenging to

manage. As of August 2019, farmers and those engaged in Pig and Pork meat

business across 51 nations were bearing the cost of ASF, which resulted in the death

or culling of about one-fourth of the world's pig population (Gao, Sun, et. al, 2021).

In the Philippines, hog lanes that follow zoning plans and pricing caps are two

strategies being used to combat African swine disease. Since 2020, the Philippines has

implemented zoning rules that restrict trade between specific regions and the rest of

the nation. The zoning will designate and limit infected areas. To stop the spread of

the ASF illness from pig to pig, these areas cannot trade. Price caps are another policy

now in place. In February 2021, Former President Duterte signed Executive Order

124, implementing price limiting in the National Capital Region of the Philippines, in

an effort to curb the 50–275% increase in chicken and pork prices between January

2020 and January 2021. Pork belly was subject to price ceilings of PHP 300 ($6.16)

and pig shoulder and leg, PHP 270 ($5.55). As a result, participants in the meat

supply chain will only make the same percentage of profit, but the limited supply of

meat will have an impact on their revenue (Ranola, 2021).

2.3.1 Return on investment

A set of accounts that earn income from economic activity and make

purchases from other accounts make up the social accounting matrices that were used

to identify the financial performance of pork suppliers in the hog meat industry.

Accounts can be categorized according to particular economic sectors, production

factors, and groups that receive and utilize revenue from various economic sectors.

Despite efforts to substitute it with beef and chicken, supply chain actors' returns on
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investment actually decreased as a result of the shortage of pork meat (Xiong. et. al,

( 2021).

2.3.2 Revenue

The ASF outbreak severely impacted medium- and large-scale farmers'

profitability. Subsequently, the impact of ASF on the traders, slaughterhouses,

processors, and retailers who were surveyed exposed a significant change in the

patterns of commerce, with a lot more trade now taking place with large farms.

Additionally, since the ASF outbreak, these suppliers have seen a substantial decline

in revenue due to consumer concerns about the spread of illness from sick pigs to

people (Nguyen-Thi et al., 2021).

2.3.3 Income

The majority of supply chain actors received lower income due to the ASF and

the limited supply of pork meat; however, based on a study conducted in Vietnam,

meat distributors actually received higher income because they buy pork meat at a

low price and sell it higher to meat vendors. The effects of an ASF outbreak on

supply, demand, and income are comparatively similar to the previous baseline

scenario, but at a larger magnitude in absolute values. On the other hand, although

selling lesser meat than normal, meat dealers find that customers are hesitant to

purchase pork because of the ASF fear (Smith and Cooper, 2021).

2.4 Relationship

The Asian ASF outbreaks and their impact on the financial performance of pig

farms in impacted nations are the main subjects of this study. It talks about decreased

output, shifting consumer demand, and culling diseased pigs. The analysis
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demonstrates a glaringly negative relationship between ASF outbreaks and pig

farming's profitability (Gallardo, et al., 2019). The measures for risk management that

pig producers and other industry participants use to lessen the financial impact of ASF

are covered in this literature. In order to prevent harm to financial performance from

ASF outbreaks, many strategies are being investigated, including market

diversification, insurance, and biosecurity protocols (Huang et al., (2020).

2.5 Method

Zhang et al. (2022) aimed to examine the factors influencing the decline in pig

production in China post the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak. Alongside

recognizing the impact of variables such as consumer demand, governmental policies,

and feed supply, the study emphasized ASF as a significant contributor to the

production decrease. Using regression analysis, Zhang et al. (2022) analyzed data

collected from a sample of pig farms in China, covering the period from 2015 to

2019. The study delved into various factors influencing pig production decline,

including the outbreak of ASF. The respondents comprised a selection of 200 pig

farms across China. Statistical treatment involved regression analysis to identify the

impact of ASF outbreak, alongside other variables, on the decline in pig production.

The analysis revealed that ASF outbreak significantly contributed to the

decrease in pig production. Besides ASF, factors such as governmental regulations

and shifts in consumer preferences also played a role in the decline. To mitigate the

negative impacts of ASF, efficient preventive and control measures were

recommended, along with adapting to changes in customer preferences and regulatory

frameworks. Nevertheless, the study also noted that additional factors like alterations

in governmental policies and consumer preferences contributed to the downturn in pig

production.
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2.6 Synthesis

In summary, ASF has terrible negative repercussions on society, especially on

the economy. These effects vary greatly among localities, production levels, and value

chain actors. The disease forced tens of thousands of small-scale pork producers,

buyers, sellers, butchers, and meat merchants out of business. The study is based on

Muth's (1961) Rational Expectations Theory. It has a negative impact on the way of

life for many low-income individuals who depend on pigs as a source of income, as a

way to grow money, and as "safety nets" during trying times. Muth used the

expression to describe a range of circumstances where a result depends in part on

what individuals expect to happen.

The devastating effect of ASF to the supply chain includes Production, which

refers to the supply of live pigs from small-scale farmers or growers; Processing,

which involves processed meats like canned cooked pork meat, marinated pork meat,

sausages, and even tocino; Distribution, which refers to the distribution of pork meat

to respective vendors who are responsible for selling the aforementioned meat

products to consumers; and Consumption, which refers to the consumption of the

meat products. Similar to this, the financial effects of ASF on the supply chain

participants include income, which refers to the profit made from the transactions,

revenue, which refers to the input of gross sales, and return on investment, which

describes the money invested and how it was recovered during the transaction.

The quoted literature above provided a clearer perspective of the study in

terms of comparison and contrast. It has important bearings in determining the ASF

devastation and financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao City.

3. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
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The conceptual framework of the study exhibited the variables involved in the

study as follows: The independent variable ASF devastation will be measured through

the indicators production, processing, distribution, and consumption; the dependent

variable financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao City will be gauged

through indicators return of investment, revenue, and income. The significant

relationship will be determined between the two variables.

Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Asf Devastation Financial Performance Of

Pork Suppliers In Davao
City
Production

Processing Return on investment

Distribution Revenue

Consumption Income

Figure 1. The Conceptual Framework of the study

4. OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

The study intends to determine the ASF devastation and financial performance

of pork suppliers in Davao City.

Specifically, it will seek answers to the following queries:

1. Determine the ASF devastation in Davao City in terms of:

1.1 Production

1.2 Processing

1.3 Distribution

1.4 Consumption
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2. Ascertain the level of financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao City

in terms of:

2.1 Return on investment

2.2 Revenue

2.3 Income

3. Determine if there's a significant relationship between the ASF devastation

and financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao City.

4. Determine which domain of ASF devastation significantly influences the

financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao City.

5. HYPOTHESES

H01: There is no significant relationship between the ASF devastation and

financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao City.

H02: No domain of ASF devastation significantly influences the financial

performance of pork suppliers in Davao City.

6. METHODOLOGY

This chapter presents the method used in this study. It includes the research

respondents, materials and instruments, and design and procedure.

6.1 Research Design

This portion discusses the method of the study, particularly research

respondents, materials and instruments, and design and procedure.

The study will employ a descriptive correlation research design, wherein after

determining the level of the two variables involved in the study, significant

relationship analysis will be conducted to determine whether there is a significant

relationship or none between the two variables involved in the study. This is done

with statistics, particularly in the descriptive correlation research design wherein the
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respondents' assessment was determined and the significant relationship between the

variables involved in the study (Klazema, 2014). According to Sis International

Research (n.d.) quantitative research is a structured way of collecting and analyzing

data obtained from different sources. Quantitative research involves the use of

computational, statistical, and mathematical tools to derive results. It is conclusive in

its purpose as it tries to quantify the problem and understand how prevalent it is by

looking for projectable results to a larger population. This research designed will be

appropriate in determining the ASF devastation and financial performance of pork

suppliers in Davao City.

6.2 Research Respondents

The respondents of this study will be the pork suppliers in Davao City. The

population size is 588, comprising three districts: District 1, District 2, and District 3,

and each district is 309, 137, and 14, respectively. The researchers used Raosoft to

determine the target sample size, which resulted in 233 pork suppliers/shops. With a

confidence level of 95 percent, 0.50 estimated proportion of the attribute present in

the population, also called maximum data variability, and 5 percent margin of error.

Using the stratified sampling method, researchers can examine data with a smaller

margin of error. The stratified sampling eliminates bias and a balanced subset with the

highest potential for presenting the broader group (Horton, 2023). The inclusion

criteria for the respondents are pork suppliers operating in Davao City, which are

independently owned.

6.2 Research Instrument

A modified two-part survey questionnaire will be used in data gathering. The

first part was designed to determine ASF Devastation of Pork Suppliers in Davao City

in terms of production, processing, distribution and consumption. The second part will
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be intended for the items under each indicator of the main variable with the following

responses: "Strongly Agree," "Agree," "Agree Nor Disagree," "Disagree," and

"Strongly Disagree The questionnaire will be divided into two parts as follows: The

first part will tackle the independent variable, namely ASF devastation, which will be

measured through the indicators production, processing, distribution, and

consumption; the second part will be the dependent variable financial performance of

pork suppliers in Davao City, which will be gauged through indicators return of

investment, revenue, and income. The survey questionnaire utilized a 5 point likert

scale of ASF devastation and financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao City.

The questionnaire is separated in two sections: the independent variable and the

dependent variable and its indicators.

6.4 Data Gathering Procedures

The study will employ a Descriptive-Correlation research design, wherein

after determining the level of the two variables involved in the study, significant

relationship analysis will be conducted to determine whether there is significant

relationship or none between the two variables involved in the study. This is done

with statistics, particularly in the descriptive correlation research design wherein the

assessment of the respondents was determined as well as the significant relationship

between the variables involved in the study (Klazema, 2014). Thus, descriptive

correlation is designed to depict the participants in an accurate way, more simply put

descriptive research is all about describing about a specific topic (Kowalczy, 2015).

This research designed will be appropriate in determining the ASF devastation and

financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao City.

The following steps will be conducted during the data gathering: Asking

Permission to Conduct the Study. The researchers will forward a letter to the
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respective suppliers in the pork supply chain duly noted by the research adviser and

confirmed by the Dean of the College of Accounting Education seeking permission to

conduct a survey. Distribution of questionnaire. After approval of the said request, the

researchers will administer and distribute the survey questionnaire using face-to-face

survey; Collection of Data. After the respondents answered all the questions, the data

will be gathered personally by the researchers and, Arrangement of Data. Data

gathered will be collated, tallied, and forwarded to be statistically treated by the

school statistician and the result will be tabulated, analyzed and interpreted ion the

succeeding chapters.

6.5 Data Interpretation

In evaluating the ASF devastation and financial performance of pork suppliers in

Davao City. The following scales for interpreting are used.

Table 1. ASF devastation in Davao City

Range of Scale Descriptive Interpretation

Means Equivalent

4.20 - 5.00 5 Very High This means that the ASF devastation agree
strongly agree with the statement
mentioned

3.40 - 4.19 4 High This means that the ASF devastation agree
with the statement mentioned

2.60 - 3.39 3 Moderate This means that the ASF devastation agree
moderately agree with the statement
mentioned

1.80 - 2.59 2 Low This means that the ASF devastation agree
disagree with the statement mentioned

1.00 - 1.79 1 Very Low This means that the ASF devastation agree
strongly disagree with the statement
mentioned
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The table below was used to determine the level of financial performance of pork

suppliers:

Table 2. Financial performance of pork suppliers

Range of Scale Descriptive Interpretation

Means Equivalent

4.20 - 5.00 5 Very High This means that the pork suppliers agree
strongly agree with the statement
mentioned

3.40 - 4.19 4 High This means that the pork suppliers agree
with the statement mentioned

2.60 - 3.39 3 Moderate This means that the pork suppliers agree
moderately agree with the statement
mentioned

1.80 - 2.59 2 Low This means that the pork suppliers agree
disagree with the statement mentioned

1.00 - 1.79 1 Very Low This means that the pork suppliers agree
strongly disagree with the statement
mentioned
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The table below will determine the significant relationship between the ASF

devastation and financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao City. Pearson

Correlation Coefficient (r-value) will be used. The range of r-value is from -1 to +1,

where the higher the absolute value of the coefficient, the stronger the relationship

between the variables. With a 5% significant level threshold, the following guidelines

will be utilized for interpretation:

Absolute value Descriptive Interpretation

Equivalent
r-value

±1.00 - 0.90 Very High This means that the correlational relationship

of the two variables is very strong.

±0.89 - 0.70 High This means that the correlational relationship

of the two variables is strongly correlated.

±0.69 - 0.40 Moderate This means that the correlational relationship

of the two variables is moderately correlated.

±0.39 - 0.20 Low This means that the correlational relationship

of the two variables is weakly correlated.

±0.19 - 0.05 Very Low This means that the correlational relationship

of the two variables is very weak.

6.6 Statistical Tool

The following statistical tools will be used in the treatment of the data:

Mean. It will be used to determine the ASF devastation and financial

performance of pork suppliers in Davao City.

 26

Standard Deviation. It will determine how data is distributed according to its

mean. About the selected standard, the ASF devastation and financial performance of

pork suppliers in Davao City.

Pearson correlation coefficient. It will be utilized to determine the

significant relationship between the ASF devastation and financial performance of

pork suppliers in Davao City.

Regression Analysis. This will be used to determine the domain of ASF

devastation that significantly influenced the financial performance of pork suppliers in

Davao City.

6.5 Data Interpretation

To determine the significant relationship between the ASF devastation and

financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao City. Pearson Correlation

Coefficient (r-value) will be used. The range of r-value is from -1 to +1, where the

higher the absolute value of the coefficient, the stronger the relationship between the

variables. With a 5% significant level threshold, the following guidelines will be

utilized for interpretation:

Absolute value Descriptive Interpretation

Equivalent
r-value

±1.00 - 0.90 Very High This means that the correlational relationship

of the two variables is very strong.

±0.89 - 0.70 High This means that the correlational relationship

of the two variables is strongly correlated.

±0.69 - 0.40 Moderate This means that the correlational relationship

of the two variables is moderately correlated.

±0.39 - 0.20 Low This means that the correlational relationship

 27

of the two variables is weakly correlated.

±0.19 - 0.05 Very Low This means that the correlational relationship

of the two variables is very weak.

7. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

In this section, the researchers organized their collected data for interpretation

and presentation of results. The discussion provided a reliable elucidation of the

outcomes by analyzing the gathered data and referring to pertinent literature.

Additionally, it highlighted the importance of the findings and delved into the reasons

behind respondents' perceptions regarding ASF devastation and the financial

performance of pork suppliers.

7.1 Degree of ASF Devastation of Pork Suppliers in Davao City

Table 1 illustrates the degree of African Swine Fever (ASF) devastation in

Davao City. The average mean is M=3.27, with a standard deviation of SD=0.57,

suggesting a moderate level of agreement regarding ASF devastation across

production, processing, distribution, and consumption sectors. The result agreed to

Chenais et al. (2017), stated that the emergence of African Swine Fever (ASF) led to

significant economic repercussions, resulting in substantial direct and indirect

financial setbacks for farmers, notably those operating medium- and large-scale pig

farms, whose primary source of income relies heavily on pig production. Furthermore,

the outbreaks adversely impacted various stakeholders within the value chain, leading

to a notable decline in pig trading volumes. Hence, the outcome implies an immediate

requirement for proactive steps to lessen its economic repercussions in Davao City.

Table 1. Level of ASF Devastation, n=233

Standard Descriptive
Variable Mean
Deviation Interpretation
Distribution 3.43 0.52 High
 28

Production 3.36 0.57 Moderate

Processing 3.27 0.54 Moderate

Consumption 3.03 0.78 Moderate

Overall 3.27 0.42 Moderate

The distribution category has the highest ranking, with a mean of M=3.43 and

a standard deviation of SD=0.52, signifying high agreement across various factors:

distributors omit pork when delivering meat to vendors, farms' meat outlets cease

displaying pork, meat vendors refrain from selling meat to consumers, distributors

provide alternative meats like beef or chicken to restaurants and carinderias, and

distributors avoid delivering pork directly to suppliers' houses. As noted by Chen,

Zhao, et al. (2020), involves exclusively distributing pork within unaffected regions

while heavily impacted areas resort to imported pigs, which entail higher costs. The

result implies the emphasis on adaptability of distributors, farms, and meat vendors to

mitigate the spread of ASF and maintain public confidence in meat products.

Additionally, it highlights the resilience of the meat supply chain in swiftly

responding to emerging threats, ultimately contributing to the protection of public

health and the sustainability of the industry.

Ranking second is the production category, with a mean of M=3.36 and a

standard deviation of SD=0.57, indicating moderate agreement on several issues:

Some farmers hide pigs due to uncertainty about future assistance, leading to

decreased market sales; payments may be adequate for fatteners but insufficient for

sow farmers; and those in contaminated areas are required to cull pigs with

government reimbursement. Furthermore, pigs weighing over 80kg are compensated

only Php 5,000.00, lower than the live weight price, prompting some farmers to

transition to crop farming post-pig depopulation. This finding is particularly

 29

concerning given the significant impact of declining pork production on families

whose livelihoods depend heavily on pork, as noted by Corpuz (2020). The high

mortality rate among pigs exacerbates the challenges faced by these families,

emphasizing the need for clearer support policies, equitable compensation schemes,

and effective disease management strategies to sustain pig farming livelihoods amidst

such challenges.

The processing category ranks third, with a mean of M=3.27 and a standard

deviation of SD=0.54, suggesting moderate agreement on various measures:

slaughterhouses refrain from pig slaughtering to prevent disease spread, meat

processors like chorizo and tocino cease operations to aid containment efforts, lechon

houses halt operations to assist the Department of Agriculture in virus containment,

and canning plants avoid pork usage to mitigate ASF transmission. In light of the first

decline in global meat production in 20 years due to ASF, prompting stringent quality

control measures to prevent contamination. The unchecked spread of ASF is

anticipated to strain processed pork markets, resulting in increased prices as

consumers prioritize pre-epidemic products. Despite being safe for human

consumption, ASF in pigs causes high fever, internal bleeding, and almost always

results in fatality within weeks (Kivumbi, et al., 2021). The outcome suggests the

importance of industry-wide cooperation and proactive measures to safeguard both

public health and the integrity of the pork supply chain amidst disease outbreaks like

ASF.

The consumption category ranks lowest, with a mean of M=3.03 and a

standard deviation of SD=0.78, suggesting moderate agreement regarding various

aspects: buyers no longer inquire about pork in the market, individuals refrain from

purchasing processed pork meat, restaurant patrons avoid ordering pork-based dishes,
 30

and canned pork products in grocery stores experience decreased demand from

customers. This situation exacerbates the risk of malnutrition among those reliant on

purchasing meat from wet markets, as scarcity drives up prices for beef, poultry, and

pork globally, leading to reduced access to protein sources, particularly in rural areas,

and significant shifts in international trade dynamics (Ranola, 2021). The result

implies that it could significantly affect the pork industry, leading to lower market

demand and economic hurdles for producers and suppliers. It emphasizes the

necessity for industry stakeholders to adjust marketing approaches, expand product

ranges, and seek alternative income sources to address shifting consumer preferences

and maintain market competitiveness.

7.2 Level of Financial Performance of Pork Suppliers in Davao City

Table 2 presents the financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao City,

indicating a high level of agreement across return on investments, revenue, and

income sectors, with an average mean of M=3.41 and a standard deviation of

SD=0.27. Meanwhile, in February 2021, Former President Duterte implemented

Executive Order 124, establishing price limits in the National Capital Region to

counter the substantial increase in chicken and pork prices from January 2020 to

January 2021. Under this order, pork belly and pig shoulder and leg were capped at

PHP 300 ($6.16) and PHP 270 ($5.55), respectively, aiming to ensure consistent

profits throughout the meat supply chain despite potential revenue impacts resulting

from constrained meat supply (Ranola, 2021). The result implies a stable and

consistent financial landscape within the pork industry.

Table 2. Level of Financial Performance, n=233

Standard Descriptive
Variable Mean
Deviation Interpretation
Income 3.63 0.44 High
 31

Revenue 3.50 0.58 High

Return on
3.09 0.55 Moderate
Investments
Overall 3.41 0.27 High

The income category ranks highest, with an average mean of M=3.63 and a

standard deviation of SD=0.44, indicates a high agreement among pork suppliers.

They have control over pricing to maximize profits, have seen increased income from

supplying over the past year, experience significant income fluctuations due to

demand changes, and provide sufficient support to customers. However, amidst an

ASF outbreak, the impact on supply, demand, and income mirrors previous trends,

albeit with more significant effects. Despite selling less meat than usual, meat dealers

note customer hesitancy to purchase pork due to ASF concerns (Smith and Cooper,

2021). The result implies that the stability indicates favorable conditions for business

operations and may attract further investment in the sector. However, the significant

income fluctuations due to demand changes underscore the need for adaptive

strategies to mitigate potential financial risks and maintain long-term sustainability.

The revenue category ranks second, with an average mean of M=3.50 and a

standard deviation of SD=0.58, suggests a high level of agreement among pork

suppliers regarding several factors. These include the pork suppliers' clear

understanding of revenue generation, the impact of market demand adaptability on

revenue in the pork industry, the primary measure of success being revenue for pork

suppliers, and the observed decrease in sales experienced by pork suppliers.

Concurrently, survey results regarding the impact of ASF on traders, slaughterhouses,

processors, and retailers highlight significant shifts in commercial dynamics, such as

increased trade with large farms, alongside a notable decline in revenue linked to

consumer concerns over illness transmission from infected pigs (Nguyen-Thi et al.,
 32

2021). The result implies emphasizing the critical role of market demand adaptability

in influencing revenue streams for pork suppliers and the recognition of revenue as a

primary measure of success which underscores the need for strategies to maintain and

enhance revenue amidst observed decreases in sales.

The return on investments category, ranking lowest with an average mean of

M=3.09 and a standard deviation of SD=0.55, suggests a moderate agreement among

pork suppliers on various factors, including yearly returns exceeding 10%, investment

decisions driven by potential returns, preference for higher-risk investments with

greater potential returns, and the significance of assessing return on investment for

pork suppliers' investment success. Social accounting matrices, utilized to assess pork

suppliers' financial performance, categorize accounts based on economic sectors,

factors, and revenue recipients. Despite efforts to substitute pork with beef and

chicken, supply chain actors experienced reduced returns on investment due to pork

shortages (Xiong et al., 2021). The result emphasizes the importance of refining

investment approaches, mitigating risks, and enhancing methodologies for assessing

return on investment to ensure the financial viability and sustainability of pork

suppliers in the industry.

7.3 Correlation between ASF Devastation and Financial Performance

Table 3 presents the correlational analysis between ASF devastation and

financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao City. The indicators' R-values is

also indicated. The computed R-value for ASF devastation and financial performance

is R=-0.23*.

Table 3. Correlation between ASF Devastation and Financial Performance

Variable Financial Performance
ASF Devastation -0.23*
*p<0.05
 33

The overall computed R-value of ASF devastation and financial performance

is (R=-0.23*), indicating a negative, weak relationship and suggesting a negative

correlation (inversely proportional). The result implied that higher ASF devastation

tended to have lower financial performance. The P-value is P=0.00, which means that

the null hypothesis was rejected and there is a significant relationship between ASF

devastation and financial performance of pork supplier in Davao City. The degree of

relationship was sufficient.

7.4 Domain of ASF Devastation significantly influences the Financial Performance

Table 4 presents the correlational analysis between the domain of ASF

devastation and financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao City. The

indicators' R-values is also indicated. The production and consumption are the

domains of ASF devastation that significantly affects the financial performance.

Table 4. Domain of ASF Devastation significantly influences the Financial

Performance
Return on Income Financial
Variable Revenue
Investments Performance
Production 0.28* -0.44* -0.17* -0.22*

Processing -0.05 -0.01 0.05 -0.01

Distribution -0.03 -0.08 -0.13* -0.15*

Consumption 0.23* -0.34* -0.25* -0.23*

*p<0.05

The overall computed R-value of production and financial performance is

(R=-0.22*), indicating a negative, weak relationship and suggesting a negative

correlation (inversely proportional). The result implied that higher ASF devastation

particularly in production tended to have lower financial performance. The P-value is

P=0.00, which means that the null hypothesis was rejected and there is a significant

relationship between production and financial performance of pork supplier in Davao

City. The degree of relationship was sufficient.

 34

On the other hand, the overall computed R-value of consumption and financial

performance is (R=-0.23*), indicating a negative, weak relationship and suggesting a

negative correlation (inversely proportional). The result implied that higher ASF

devastation particularly in consumption tended to have lower financial performance.

The P-value is P=0.00, which means that the null hypothesis was rejected and there is

a significant relationship between consumption and financial performance of pork

supplier in Davao City. The degree of relationship was sufficient.

The results indicate that the financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao

City is notably influenced by ASF devastation, highlighting the pork industry's

susceptibility to diseases and their resulting economic consequences. The analysis

reveals that ASF outbreaks lead to reduced output, shifts in consumer demand, and

the necessity of culling diseased pigs, all of which significantly impact the

profitability of pig farming operations. Consequently, pork suppliers face the

imperative of developing robust risk management strategies to mitigate the adverse

effects of ASF (Gallardo, et al., 2019). These strategies may involve implementing

stringent biosecurity measures, investing in disease-resistant breeds, and diversifying

product offerings to reduce reliance on pork. By adopting proactive measures, pork

suppliers can better navigate the challenges posed by ASF outbreaks and enhance the

resilience of the pork industry in affected regions.

The study’s findings reveal a significant relationship between the extent of

African Swine Fever (ASF) devastation and the financial performance of pork

suppliers in Davao City. This correlation suggests that when ASF has a greater

impact, such as higher rates of infection or more widespread outbreaks, pork suppliers

experience a decline in their financial viability. Essentially, the more severe the ASF

outbreaks, the greater the negative impact on the financial health of suppliers within
 35

the pork industry. This insight highlights the economic vulnerability of the pork

industry to disease outbreaks like ASF. It demonstrates how external factors, such as

disease prevalence and outbreak severity, can directly influence the financial well-

being of suppliers in the industry.

Furthermore, the ASF outbreak severely impacted profitability, revenue, and

income of medium- and large-scale farmers, traders, slaughterhouses, processors, and

retailers in the pork supply chain. The study highlighted the significant change in

commerce patterns, with more trade taking place with large farms. It also discussed

the decline in revenue due to consumer concerns about the spread of illness from sick

pigs to people. Additionally, the study pointed out that meat distributors actually

received higher income due to buying pork at a low price and selling it higher to

vendors, despite the limited supply of pork meat.

8. CONCLUSION

8.1 Summary of Findings

Based on the problem statement, the study concludes as follows: The research

revealed a moderate level of agreement regarding ASF devastation across the

production, processing, distribution, and consumption sectors. The study highlights

the pork industry's adaptability in mitigating ASF spread and maintaining public trust

through effective distribution practices. However, pig farmers face challenges such as

inadequate compensation and transitioning to alternative livelihoods post-

depopulation, necessitating clearer support policies. Overall, industry-wide

cooperation and proactive measures are crucial for safeguarding public health and the

integrity of the pork supply chain amidst ASF outbreaks while addressing economic

challenges faced by producers and suppliers.

 36

A high level of agreement was noted across the return on investments,

revenue, and income sectors. The study reveals significant consensus among pork

suppliers regarding income stability and pricing control, despite income fluctuations

driven by demand changes and ASF outbreaks, presenting favorable conditions for

potential investments. Challenges in revenue generation are highlighted by decreased

sales and consumer concerns over ASF transmission, underscoring the need for

adaptable strategies to sustain revenue streams. Additionally, moderate agreement

among pork suppliers emphasizes the importance of refining investment strategies and

risk mitigation to ensure long-term financial sustainability amidst evolving market

dynamics and ASF-related disruptions.

A correlational analysis between ASF devastation and the financial

performance of pork suppliers in Davao City, revealing a negative, weak relationship

with an R-value of -0.23*. This finding suggests that higher levels of ASF devastation

correlate with lower financial performance among pork suppliers. The significant P-

value of 0.00 rejects the null hypothesis, confirming a noteworthy relationship

between ASF devastation and financial performance in Davao City. This underscores

the importance of addressing ASF-related challenges to enhance the financial stability

and resilience of pork suppliers in the region. The correlation analysis examines ASF

devastation's impact on financial performance among pork suppliers in Davao City,

indicating significant negative relationships in both production and consumption

domains. Higher ASF devastation correlates with lower financial performance, as

evidenced by significant P-values rejecting the null hypothesis, highlighting the

notable relationship between ASF devastation and financial outcomes.

8.2 Conclusion
 37

The African Swine Fever (ASF) significantly impacted production,

processing, distribution, and consumption of pork and financial performance of the

pork suppliers in Davao City, Philippines. The primary issue is the severe economic

impact on pork suppliers, including substantial financial losses across production,

processing, distribution, and consumption sectors. The study revealed a moderate

level of agreement regarding ASF devastation across production, processing,

distribution, and consumption sectors among pork suppliers in Davao City. The

distribution sector had the highest level of agreement, suggesting effective adaptation

measures by distributors, farms, and meat vendors to mitigate ASF spread and

maintain public trust. However, challenges were noted in the production sector, such

as inadequate compensation for farmers and the need to transition to alternative

livelihoods post-depopulation. Regarding financial performance, a high level of

agreement was observed across return on investments, revenue, and income sectors.

The findings suggest income stability, pricing control, and favorable conditions for

potential investments. However, income fluctuations driven by demand changes and

decreased sales due to consumer concerns over ASF transmission were highlighted as

challenges.

The correlational analysis revealed a negative, weak relationship between ASF

devastation and financial performance, with an R-value of -0.23. This indicates that

higher levels of ASF devastation correlated with lower financial performance among

pork suppliers. The analysis further identified that the production and consumption

domains of ASF devastation had a significant negative impact on financial

performance.

The study generated new knowledge about the substantial negative impact of

African Swine Fever (ASF) on the financial performance of pork suppliers in Davao
 38

City. It provided detailed insights into how ASF devastation affects various stages of

the pork supply chain production, processing, distribution, and consumption.

Specifically, it highlighted the significant economic losses faced by medium- and

large-scale farmers, the disruption in processing and distribution channels, and the

shifts in consumer behavior due to ASF-related fears. This findings align well with

Muth's Rational Expectations Theory, which suggests that people's expectations about

future economic conditions can influence current economic outcomes. In this case, the

anticipation of ASF's adverse effects led to proactive measures by pork suppliers,

such as shifting to other products and implementing biosecurity protocols, to stabilize

their financial performance. Additionally, the study's results support the theory that

external factors, such as disease outbreaks, can significantly impact the financial

health of businesses within a specific industry.

8. 3 Limitations of the Study

One potential limitation of the study lies in its narrow focus on the pork

industry within Davao City, potentially limiting the generalizability of findings to

other regions with distinct socio-economic and regulatory landscapes. While the

correlational analysis offers valuable insights into the relationship between ASF

devastation and financial performance among pork suppliers, it may overlook the

multifaceted nature of factors influencing financial outcomes, such as market

dynamics and governmental policies. Thus, the study's conclusions should be

interpreted within the context of its geographical scope and may not fully capture the

complexities of ASF's impact on the broader pork industry. Further research across

diverse settings and employing more comprehensive methodologies is warranted to

provide a holistic understanding of the challenges and opportunities faced by pork

suppliers amidst ASF outbreaks.

 39

8.4 Recommendations

Based on the study's findings, several recommendations are proposed for pork

suppliers to mitigate the impact of ASF outbreaks and maintain business resilience.

First, there's a need to enforce stringent biosecurity protocols across all phases of pork

production, processing, distribution, and consumption to prevent ASF transmission

and uphold supply chain integrity. Secondly, investing in breeding programs that

focus on developing disease-resistant pig breeds can help minimize the impact of ASF

outbreaks on pork production. Additionally, diversifying product offerings beyond

pork can reduce reliance on a single commodity and mitigate revenue fluctuations

during ASF outbreaks. Market adjustments, such as pricing strategies and seeking

alternative markets, could have helped sustain financial performance despite reduced

demand. Suppliers might have also enhanced supply chain resilience and invested in

disease management practices to minimize ASF-related disruptions. Collaborative

efforts among industry stakeholders, including information sharing and best practice

dissemination, likely contributed to mitigating the impact of ASF on both production

and financial performance. Market adjustments, such as pricing strategies and seeking

alternative markets, could have sustain financial performance despite reduced

demand. Suppliers might have also enhanced supply chain resilience and invested in

disease management practices to minimize ASF-related disruptions. Collaborative

efforts among industry stakeholders, including information sharing and best practice

dissemination, likely contributed to mitigating the impact of ASF on both production

and financial performance. Additionally, it revealed a negative, weak relationship

between ASF devastation and financial performance highlighting the need for

measure to address ASF-related challenges and enhance the resilience of the pork

supply chain. Moreover, fostering collaboration among industry stakeholders,

 40

government bodies, and research institutions can facilitate knowledge-sharing and

best practices in ASF management and prevention. Furthermore, advocating for

clearer support policies from government agencies is crucial to address challenges

like inadequate compensation and transitioning to alternative livelihoods post-

outbreak. Lastly, educating consumers about ASF and pork safety measures is

essential to alleviate concerns and maintain confidence in pork products. By adopting

these recommendations, pork suppliers can enhance their resilience and sustainability

in the face of ASF outbreaks and other challenges. The study explores various factors

contributing to the economic impact of ASF, including the disruption in the pork

supply chain, reduced demand for pork products, and the shift in suppliers to other

businesses due to financial losses. Government support in the form of financial

assistance for affected farmers helped alleviate some of the economic burdens.

Additionally, the spread of ASF through unhygienic transportation practices

highlighted the need for improved biosecurity measures in the pork supply chain.
 41

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