heizer_om10_tif_modF

Operations Management, 10e (Heizer/Render)
Module F Simulation
True/False
5) Virtually all large-scale simulations take place on computers, but small simulations can be
conducted by hand.
Answer: TRUE
Diff: 1
Topic: What is simulation?
AACSB: Use of IT
Objective: no LO
13) The effects of OM policies over many months or years can be obtained by computer
simulation in a short time. This phenomenon is referred to as
A) time suppression
B) time suspension
C) time compression
D) time inversion
E) time conversion
Answer: C
Diff: 2
Topic: Advantages and disadvantages of simulation
AACSB: Use of IT
Objective: LO-Module F-1
21) From a portion of a probability distribution, you read that P(demand = 0) is 0.05 and
P(demand = 1) is 0.10. The cumulative probability for demand 1 would be
A) 0.05
B) 0.075
C) 0.10
D) 0.15
E) cannot be determined
Answer: D
Diff: 2
Topic: Monte Carlo simulations
AACSB: Analytic Skills
22) From a portion of a probability distribution, you read that P(demand = 1) is 0.05, P(demand
= 2) is 0.15, and P(demand = 3) is .20. The cumulative probability for demand 3 would be
A) 0.133
B) 0.200
C) 0.400
D) 0.600
E) cannot be determined from the information given
Answer: E
F-1
Copyright © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc.
Diff: 2
23) From a portion of a probability distribution, you read that P(demand = 0) is 0.05, P(demand
= 1) is 0.10, and P(demand = 2) is 0.20. The two-digit random number intervals for this
distribution beginning with 01 are
A) 01 through 05, 01 through 10, and 01 through 20
B) 00 through 04, 05 through 14, and 15 through 34
C) 01 through 05, 06 through 15, and 16 through 35
D) 00 through 04, 00 through 09, and 00 through 19
E) 01 through 06, 07 through 16, and 17 through 36
Answer: C
Diff: 2
24) From a portion of a probability distribution, you read that P(demand = 0) is 0.25, and
P(demand = 1) is 0.30. The random number intervals for this distribution beginning with 01 are
A) 01 through 25, and 26 through 30
B) 01 through 25, and 01 through 30
C) 01 through 25, and 26 through 55
D) 00 through 25, and 26 through 55
E) 00 through 25, and 26 through 30
Answer: C
Diff: 2
25) A distribution of service times at a waiting line indicates that service takes 6 minutes 30
percent of the time, 7 minutes 40 percent of the time, 8 minutes 20 percent of the time, and 9
minutes 10 percent of the time. In preparing this distribution for Monte Carlo analysis, the
service time 8 minutes would be represented by the random number range
A) 20 through 40
B) 21 through 40
C) 70 through 90
D) 71 through 90
E) none of these
Answer: D
Diff: 2
F-2
26) A distribution of service times at a waiting line shows that service takes 6 minutes 30 percent
of the time, 7 minutes 40 percent of the time, 8 minutes 20 percent of the time, and 9 minutes 10
percent of the time. This distribution has been prepared for Monte Carlo analysis. The first two
random numbers drawn are 53 and 74. The simulated service times are __________ minutes,
then __________ minutes.
A) 6; 7
B) 7; 7
C) 7; 8
D) 8; 9
E) Cannot determine, because no service time probability is that large.
Answer: C
Diff: 2
percent of the time and 14 minutes 70 percent of the time. In preparing this distribution for
Monte Carlo analysis, the service time 13 minutes would be represented by the random number
range
A) 00 through 29
B) 01 through 30
C) 30 through 99
D) 31 through 00
E) None of these; 13 minutes is not a possible outcome.
Answer: E
Diff: 2
percent of the time and 14 minutes 70 percent of the time. This distribution has been prepared for
Monte Carlo analysis. The first four random numbers drawn are 07, 60, 77, and 49. The average
service time of this simulation is
A) 12 minutes
B) 13 minutes
C) 13.5 minutes
D) 14 minutes
E) none of these
Answer: C
Diff: 2
F-3
29) A distribution of lead times in an inventory problem indicates that lead time was 1 day 20
percent of the time, 2 days 30 percent of the time, 3 days 30 percent of the time, and. 4 days 20
percent of the time. This distribution has been prepared for Monte Carlo analysis. The first four
random numbers drawn are 06, 63, 57, and 02. The average lead time of this simulation is
A) 1.75 days
B) 2 days
C) 3 days
D) 3.5 days
E) none of these
Answer: B
Diff: 2
Short Answer
1) __________ is the attempt to duplicate the features, appearance, and characteristics of a real
system, usually by means of a computerized model.
Answer: Simulation
Diff: 1
AACSB: Use of IT
Objective: no LO
5) The effects of OM policies over many months or years can be obtained by computer
simulation in a short time. This phenomenon is referred to as __________ .
Answer: time compression
Diff: 2
AACSB: Use of IT
6) The numbers used to represent each possible value or outcome in a computer simulation are
referred to as __________ .
Answer: random-number intervals
Diff: 2
AACSB: Use of IT
F-4
7) Would you simulate a problem for which there is an exact mathematical model already?
Answer: In terms of getting the problem solved, the mathematical model would be preferred.
The problem would have an exact or optimal answer calculated by the mathematical model.
Simulating this problem would introduce variability in the form of simulation results that differ
with each run. However, there might be some gain in understanding from simulating a problem
that is already well modeled. Such simulation might be of benefit in debugging a simulation
program.
Diff: 2
AACSB: Reflective Thinking
8) Define simulation.
Answer: Simulation is the attempt to duplicate the features, appearance, and characteristics of a
real system, usually by means of a computerized model.
Diff: 1
AACSB: Use of IT
Objective: no LO
16) Provide a small example illustrating how random numbers are used in Monte Carlo
simulation.
Answer: For example, demand can be 0, 40% of the time, or 1, 60% of the time. The cumulative
distribution is demand = 0, 0.40, and demand = 1, 1.00. The random number intervals are 01
through 40 for demand = 0 and 41 through 00 for demand = 1. A random number of 36 indicates
demand = 0. Examples will vary.
Diff: 2
17) A waiting-line problem that cannot be modeled by standard distributions has been simulated.
The table below shows the result of a Monte Carlo simulation. (Assume that the simulation
began at 8:00 a.m. and there is only one server.) Why do you think this problem does not fit the
standard distribution for waiting lines? Explain briefly how a Monte Carlo simulation might
work where analytical models cannot.
Customer Number Arrival Time Service Time Service Ends

1 8:05 2 8:07
2 8:06 10 8:17
3 8:10 15 8:32
4 8:20 12 8:44
5 8:30 4 8:48
Answer: Service times do not appear to be exponential. Rather, they seem to be extreme–very
short or very long. Simulation can handle this with a cumulative probability distribution and a set
of random number intervals. The Monte Carlo simulation will, with a large enough number of
F-5
trials, mimic the reality of this system.
Diff: 3
19) Explain what is meant by the concept of "time compression" in simulation modeling.
Answer: The effects of OM policies over many months or years can be obtained by computer
simulation in a short time.
Diff: 2
AACSB: Use of IT
20) Explain the difference between random numbers and random number intervals.
Answer: Random numbers are a series of digits that have been selected by a totally random
process. Random number intervals are numbers used to represent each possible value or
outcome in a computer simulation. During simulation, a particular random number is matched
against the random number intervals to determine the value for the element being modeled that
particular time.
Diff: 2
Essay
1) A waiting-line problem that cannot be modeled by standard distributions has been simulated.
The table below shows the result of a Monte Carlo simulation. (Assume that the simulation
began at 8:00 a.m. and there is only one server.
Customer Number Arrival Time Service Time Service Ends

1 8:06 2 8:08
2 8:07 10 8:18
3 8:12 10 8:28
4 8:24 11 8:39
5 8:30 5 8:44
a. What is the average waiting time in line?

b. What is the average time in the system?
Answer: (a) Waiting time is 0 + 1 + 6 + 4 + 9 = 20. Average waiting time is 20/5 = 4.0 min; (b)
Total time in system is 2 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 14 = 58. Average time in system is 58/5 = 11.6 min.
Diff: 2
Topic: Simulation of a queuing problem
F-6
percent of the time. Prepare the probability distribution, the cumulative probability distribution,
and the random number intervals for this problem.
Answer:
Cumulative
Service time Probability probability Random number intervals
6 .40 .40 01-40
7 .30 .70 41-70
8 .20 .90 71-90
9 .10 1.00 91-00
Diff: 1
3) A warehouse manager needs to simulate the demand placed on a product that does not fit
standard models. The concept being measured is "demand during lead time," where both lead
time and daily demand are variable. The historical record for this product suggests the following
probability distribution. Convert this distribution into random number intervals.
Demand during lead time Probability

100 .02
120 .15
140 .25
160 .15
180 .13
200 .30
Answer:
Cumulative Random number
Demand during lead time Probability probability intervals
100 .02 .02 01-02
120 .15 .17 03-17
140 .25 .42 18-42
160 .15 .57 43-57
180 .13 .70 58-70
200 .30 1.00 71-00
Diff: 2
Topic: Simulation and inventory analysis
F-7
percent of the time. Prepare the probability distribution, the cumulative probability distribution,
and the random number intervals for this problem. The first five random numbers are 37, 69, 53,
80, and 60. What is the average service time of this simulation run?
Answer:
Random
Cumulative number Simulation
Service time Probability probability intervals frequency
1
6 .40 .40 01-40 (37)
3 (69, 53,
7 .30 .70 41-70 60)
1
8 .20 .90 71-90 (80)
9 .10 1.00 91-00 0
The average service time is 1*6 + 3*7 + 1*8 = 35 / 5 = 7 minutes.

Diff: 2
percent of the time and 14 minutes 70 percent of the time. Prepare the probability distribution,
the cumulative probability distribution, and the random number intervals for this problem.
Answer:
Cumulative Random number
Service time Probability probability intervals
12 .30 .30 01-30
14 .70 1.00 31-00
Diff: 1
F-8
percent of the time and 14 minutes 70 percent of the time. Prepare the probability distribution,
the cumulative probability distribution, and the random number intervals for this problem. The
first six random numbers were 99, 29, 27, 75, 89, and 78. What is the average service time for
this simulation run?
Answer:
Random
Service Cumulative number Simulation
time Probability probability intervals frequency
2 (29,
12 .30 .30 01-30 27)
4 (99, 75, 89,
14 .70 1.00 31-00 78)
The average service time is 2*12 + 4*14 = 80 / 6 = 13.33 minutes.

Diff: 1
7) Historical records on a certain product indicate the following behavior for demand. The data
represent the 288 days that the business was open during 2000. Convert these data into random
number intervals.
Demand in Number of
cases occurrences
7 52
8 9
9 14
10 39
11 72
12 102
Answer:
Random
Demand in Number of Cumulative number
cases occurrences Probability probability intervals
7 52 .18 .18 01-18
8 9 .03 .21 19-21
9 14 .05 .26 22-26
10 39 .14 .40 27-40
11 72 .25 .65 41-65
12 102 .35 1.00 66-00
Diff: 2
F-9
8) A small store is trying to determine if its current checkout system is adequate. Currently,
there is only one cashier, so it is a single-channel, single-phase system. The store has collected
information on the interarrival time, and service time distributions. They are represented in the
tables below. Use the following two-digit random numbers given below to simulate 10
customers through the checkout system. What is the average time in line, and average time in
system? (Set first arrival time to the interarrival time generated by first random number.
Interarrival Service time

time (minutes) Probability (minutes) Probability
3 .25 1 .30
4 .25 2 .40
5 .30 3 .20
6 .20 4 .10
Random numbers for interarrival times: 07, 60, 77, 49, 76, 95, 51, 16, 14, 85
Random numbers of service times: 57, 17, 36, 72, 85, 31, 44, 30, 26, 09
Answer:
Interarrival Service
time RN time RN
(minutes) Probability assignment (minutes) Probability assignment
3 .25 01-25 1 .30 01-30
4 .25 26-50 2 .40 31-70
5 .30 51-80 3 .20 71-90
6 .20 81-00 4 .10 91-00
Time Time
Customer Interarrival Arrival Service ServiceService in in
number RN time time begins RN time ends line System
1 07 3 3 3 57 2 5 0 2
2 60 5 5 5 17 1 6 0 1
3 77 5 10 10 36 2 12 0 2
4 49 4 14 14 72 3 17 0 3
5 76 5 19 19 85 3 22 0 3
6 95 6 25 25 31 2 27 0 2
7 51 5 30 30 44 2 32 0 2
8 16 3 33 33 30 1 34 0 1
9 14 3 36 36 26 1 37 0 1
10 85 6 42 42 09 1 43 0 1
Average time in line = 0/10 = 0.0 minutes; Average time in system = 18/10 = 1.8
minutes.
Diff: 2
F-10
9) Sam's hardware store has an order policy of ordering 12 gallons of a specific primer whenever
7 gallons are on hand (unless there's already an ordered delivery due). The store would like to
see how well their policy works. Assume that beginning inventory in period 1 is 10 units, that
orders are placed at the end of the week to be received one week later. (In other words, if an
order is placed at the end of week one, it is available at the beginning of week 3.) Assume that if
inventory is not on hand, it will result in a lost sale. The weekly demand distribution obtained
from past sales is found in the table below. Also, use the random numbers that are provided and
simulate 10 weeks worth of sales. How many sales are lost?
Weekly sales Probability

3 .20
4 .30
5 .20
6 .20
Random numbers for sales: 37, 60, 79, 21, 85, 71, 48, 39, 31, 35
Answer:
RN
Weekly sales Probability assignment
3 .20 01-20
4 .30 21-50
5 .20 51-70
6 .20 71-90
7 .10 91-00
Order Beginning Ending Lost

Week received inventory RN Sales inventory Order? sales
1 10 37 4 6 Y
2 6 60 5 1
3 12 13 79 6 7 Y
4 7 21 4 3
5 12 15 85 6 9
6 9 71 6 3 Y
7 3 48 4 0 1
8 12 12 39 4 8
9 8 31 4 4 Y
10 4 35 4 0
Over the 10 weeks only 1 gallon of sales is lost.

Diff: 2
F-11
10) The lunch counter at a small restaurant has difficulty handling the lunch business. Currently,
there is only one cashier in a single-channel, single-phase system. The restaurant has collected
information on the interarrival time, and service time distributions from past lunch hours. They
are represented in the tables below. Use the following two-digit random numbers given below to
simulate 10 customers through the checkout system. What is the average time in line, and
average time in system? (Set first arrival time to the interarrival time generated by first random
number.
Interarrival Service time
time (minutes) Probability (minutes) Probability
1 .20 1 .20
2 .20 2 .30
3 .30 3 .30
4 .20 4 .20
5 .10
Random numbers for interarrival times: 32, 73, 41, 38, 73, 01, 09, 64, 34, 44
Random numbers of service times: 84, 55, 25, 71, 34, 57, 50, 44, 95, 64
Answer:
Interarriva Service
l time RN time RN
(minutes) Probability assignment (minutes)Probability assignment
1 .20 01-20 1 .20 01-20
2 .20 21-40 2 .30 21-50
3 .30 41-70 3 .30 51-80
4 .20 71-90 4 .20 81-00
5 .10 91-00
Time
Customer Interarrival Arrival Service ServiceService Time in
number RN time time begins RN time ends in line System
1 32 2 2 2 84 4 6 0 4
2 73 4 6 6 55 3 9 0 3
3 41 3 9 9 25 2 11 0 2
4 38 2 11 11 71 3 14 0 3
5 73 4 15 15 34 2 17 0 2
6 01 1 16 17 57 3 20 1 4
7 09 1 17 20 50 2 22 3 5
8 64 3 20 22 44 2 24 2 4
9 34 2 22 24 95 4 28 2 6
10 44 3 25 28 64 3 31 3 6
Average time in line = 11/10 = 1.1 minutes; Average time in system = 39/10 = 3.9 minutes.
Diff: 2
11) Julie's Diamond Boutique is very concerned with its order policies related to one-carat
F-12
diamond solitaires. Their current policy is to order 10 diamonds whenever their inventory
reaches 6 diamonds (unless there is already an ordered delivery due). Currently there are 8
diamonds on hand. Orders are placed at the end of the month and take one month to arrive (e.g.,
if an order is placed at the end of month 1, it will be available at the beginning of month 3). The
following distribution of monthly sales has been developed using historical sales. If Julie's does
not have a diamond on hand, it will result in a lost sale. Use the following random numbers to
determine the number of lost sales of one-carat solitaires at Julie's over 12 months.
Monthly sales Probability

3 .20
4 .30
5 .20
6 .20
7 .10
Random numbers for sales: 10, 24, 03, 32, 23, 59, 95, 34, 34, 51, 08, 48
Answer:
RN
Monthly sales Probability assignment
3 .20 01-20
4 .30 21-50
5 .20 51-70
6 .20 71-90
7 .10 91-00
Order Beginning Ending Lost

Month received inventory RN Sales inventory Order? sales
1 8 10 3 5 Y
2 5 24 4 1
3 10 11 03 3 8
4 8 32 4 4 Y
5 4 23 4 0
6 10 10 59 5 5 Y
7 5 95 7 0 2
8 10 10 34 4 6 Y
9 6 34 4 2
10 10 12 51 5 7
11 7 08 3 4 Y
12 4 48 4 0
Over the 12 months 2 sales are lost.

Diff: 2
12) Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation.
F-13
Cumulative Interval of Random
Demand Probability Probability Numbers
0 .1
1 .15
2 .4
3 .15
4 .2
Answer:
0 .1 .1 01-10
1 .15 .25 11-25
2 .4 .65 26-65
3 .15 .8 66-80
4 .2 1 81-00
Diff: 1
F-14
13) Suppose the following random numbers (1, 34, 22, 78, 56, 98, 00, 82) were selected during a
Monte Carlo simulation that was based on the chart below. What was the average demand per
period for the simulation? What is the expected demand?

0 .1
1 .15
2 .4
3 .15
4 .2
Answer:
0 .1 .1 01-10
1 .15 .25 11-25
2 .4 .65 26-65
3 .15 .8 66-80
4 .2 1 81-00
Tires sold sum is given by 0+2+1+3+2+4+4+4=20 over 8 periods. Thus the average demand
was 20/8 = 2.5 tires.
The expected demand is simply the EV, or .1(0)+.15(1)+.4(2)+.15(3)+.2(4) = 2.2 tires per
period.
Diff: 2
F-15
14) Create a distribution of random numbers that would result in average demand per period for
a Monte Carlo simulation that is equivalent to the expected demand per period using the data
given by the chart below.

0 .1
1 .15
2 .4
3 .15
4 .2
Answer:
0 .1 .1 01-10
1 .15 .25 11-25
2 .4 .65 26-65
3 .15 .8 66-80
4 .2 1 81-00
This problem will most likely confuse many students, however its aim is to test their true
understanding and ability to work both ways. The smallest common denominator for the
probabilities is .05 so 20 separate random numbers must be generated for the simple solution
where each possible demand has probability/.05 random numbers representing it within the set.
For example, one set would be
(0, 0, 11, 11, 11, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 26, 66, 66, 66, 81, 81, 81, 81)
Students may also create sets that draw unevenly from various demand rows, such as drawing
only from 0 and 4. The expected demand is 2.4, so students would solve a relation of the form
X*0+Y*4/(X+Y)=2.4 thus X=2Y/3 so when Y=3 then X=2. Therefore another possible set of
random numbers would be (00, 00, 00, 01, 01)
Diff: 3
F-16
15) Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation.

1 01-20
2 21-25
3 26-50
4 51-80
5 81-00
Answer:
1 .2 .2 01-20
2 .05 .25 21-25
3 .25 .5 26-50
4 .3 .8 51-80
5 .2 1 81-00
Diff: 2
F-17
16) Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation. The expected
demand is 3.52.

0 .1
2 11-23
3 .5
4
86-00
Answer:
0 .1 .1 01-10
2 .13 .23 11-23
3 .27 .5 24-50
4 .35 .85 51-85
7 .15 1 86-00
Students should have only moderate difficulty filling in the table, save for the demand column.
To do this they must set up the equation for the expected demand and solve for the missing
component.
.13(2)+.27(3)+.35(4)+.15(X)=3.52 so X=7
Diff: 2
F-18

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Operations Management, 10e (Heizer/Render)

Customer Number Arrival Time Service Time Service Ends

Customer Number Arrival Time Service Time Service Ends

a. What is the average waiting time in line?

Demand during lead time Probability

The average service time is 16 + 37 + 1*8 = 35 / 5 = 7 minutes.

The average service time is 212 + 414 = 80 / 6 = 13.33 minutes.

Interarrival Service time

Weekly sales Probability

Order Beginning Ending Lost

Over the 10 weeks only 1 gallon of sales is lost.

Monthly sales Probability

Order Beginning Ending Lost

Over the 12 months 2 sales are lost.

Cumulative Interval of Random

Cumulative Interval of Random

Cumulative Interval of Random

Cumulative Interval of Random

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