CH11 Money

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Chapter 11

The Monetary
System

© 2015 Pearson Education, Ltd.


11.1 Money

Money is an asset that people use to make and


receive payments when buying and selling goods
and services.

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Types of Money
Barter trade
Commodity money
A commodity-backed money
Fiat money
11.1 Money
The U.S. dollar and other national currencies are
examples of fiat money.

Fiat money
An asset that is used as legal tender by government
decree and is not backed by a physical commodity
like gold.

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11.1 Money

Money serves three functions in a modern


economy:

1. It is a medium of exchange.
2. It is a store of value.
3. It is a unit of account (measure of worth).

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11.1 Money

A medium of exchange
is an asset that can be
traded for goods and
services.

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11.1 Money

A store of value is an asset that enables


people to transfer purchasing power into the
future.

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11.1 Money

A unit of account is a
universal yardstick
that is used to express
relative prices of
goods and services.

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11.1 Money

Question: What function(s) does each item fulfill?

Function
Medium of Store of Unit of
Item Exchange Value Account
Sea shell
Gold coin
Cow
U.S. dollar
Bitcoin

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11.1 Money

Answer:

Function
Medium of Store of Unit of
Item Exchange Value Account
Sea shell YES NO YES
Gold coin YES YES YES
Cow YES YES NO
U.S. dollar YES YES YES
Bitcoin YES YES? YES?

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Money
• Properties of money
o Easily recognizable
o Divisible
o Limited supply
o Easy to carry
11.1 Money

The money supply can be defined in various


ways:

M0 currency
M1 currency + checking accounts
M2 currency + checking accounts + savings
accounts, and most other types of bank accounts.

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11.1 Money

Money market accounts Traveler's checks


Time deposits 5% 0.03%
5%
Currency in
circulation
11%

Checking accounts
14%

Savings accounts
65%

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As of March 23, 2021 in
Turkey:
• M1 = 1.26 trillions of TL (0.99- a year earlier)
(Currency 180, Bank deposits 331, Foreign currency
deposits 751, -bank vaults 16)
• M2 = 3.55 trillions of TL (M1 + 1.21 Time deposits +
1.08 Foreign currency time deposits)
• M3 = 3.66 trillions of TL (M2 + 1.1 REPO and Liquid
Funds)
How Banks Create Money
(a bit old fashioned)
Money multiplier
• 100 TL banknote deposited, r of it put in reserve (100*r
percent), the rest is loaned
• 100*(1-r) deposited, , r of it put in reserve, the rest is loaned
• 100*(1-r)2 deposited, , r of it put in reserve, the rest is loaned
• …
• Total money = 100 + 100*(1-r) + 100*(1-r)2 + …
• Total money = 100 * (1/r)

• Money Multiplier = 1/reserve ratio

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The Money Multiplier in
Reality
The monetary base is the sum of currency in circulation and
bank reserves.
The money multiplier is the ratio of the money supply to the
monetary base.
How is money created
(modern version)
• No need to start from deposits

• Banks may borrow reserves from the Central Bank

• They give loans commensurate with the reserves


they hold at CB

• Central Bank adjusts the interest rate on reserves to


affect the money creation by banks – sometimes
this may not work!

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11.1 Money

We can divide each monetary measure by GDP:

Currency in circulation $1.22 trillion


= = $0.07
GDP $17.31 trillion

Money supply $11.49 trillion


= = $0.66
GDP $17.31 trillion

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11.1 Money

Exhibit 11.1 Currency in Circulation Divided by Nominal GDP


and Money Supply (M2) Divided by Nominal GDP

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11.2 Money, Prices, and GDP
Let’s remember a few definitions from Chapter 5:

• Nominal GDP is the total value of production


(final goods and services), using the prices from
the same year the output was produced.

• Real GDP is the total value of production (final


goods and services), using fixed prices taken
from a particular base year (which may or may
not be the year the output was produced).
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11.2 Money, Prices, and GDP

Consider the Island of Dr. Jay, which produces


only basketballs.

Calculate nominal and real GDP for the base year


of 2013:
Basketballs
Nominal
Year Number Price GDP Real GDP
2013 10 $80
2014

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11.2 Money, Prices, and GDP

Suppose that nominal GDP increases to $1,000 in


2014, but the source of the increase is unknown:

Basketballs
Nominal
Year Number Price GDP Real GDP
2013 10 $80 $800 $800
2014 ?? ?? $1,000 ??

We will consider two possible scenarios.

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11.2 Money, Prices, and GDP

Scenario A:
Basketballs Nominal Real
Year Number Price GDP GDP
2013 20 $40 $800 $800
2014 25 $40 $1,000 $1,000

The growth rate of real GDP is $1000  $800


= 0.25
$800
The growth rate of prices is $0
= 0.00
$40
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11.2 Money, Prices, and GDP

Scenario B:
Basketballs Nominal Real
Year Number Price GDP GDP
2013 20 $40 $800 $800
2014 20 $50 $1,000

Calculate the level of real GDP in 2014.


Calculate the growth rate of real GDP.
Calculate the growth rate of prices.
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11.2 Money, Prices, and GDP

Scenario B:
Basketballs Nominal Real
Year Number Price GDP GDP
2013 20 $40 $800 $800
2014 20 $50 $1,000 $800

$800  $800
The growth rate of real GDP is = 0.00
$800

The growth rate of prices is $50  $40


= 0.25
$40
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11.2 Money, Prices, and GDP

Here is a summary of our results:


Growth Rate
of Nominal Growth Rate Growth Rate of
Scenario GDP of Real GDP Prices
A 25% 25% 0%
B 25% 0% 25%

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11.2 Money, Prices, and GDP

Under each scenario, we found that:

Growth rate of nominal GDP = Growth rate of


real GDP + Growth rate of prices

Growth rate of nominal GDP = Growth rate of


real GDP + Inflation rate

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11.2 Money, Prices, and GDP

The quantity theory of money assumes that the


ratio of money to GDP is constant:

Money Supply
= constant
Nominal GDP

A constant ratio is a good approximation of how


an economy behaves in the long run.

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11.2 Money, Prices, and GDP

Exhibit 11.1 Currency in Circulation Divided by Nominal GDP


and Money Supply (M2) Divided by Nominal GDP

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11.2 Money, Prices, and GDP
A constant ratio implies that money and nominal
GDP must grow at the same rate:

Growth rate of money supply = Growth rate of


nominal GDP

Using our previous relationship, we get:

Growth rate of money supply = Inflation rate +


Growth rate of real GDP
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11.2 Money, Prices, and GDP

Rearranging terms, the quantity theory predicts


the rate of inflation:

Inflation rate = Growth rate of money supply –


Growth rate of real GDP

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11.3 Inflation

Some distinctions:

Inflation
A situation of rising prices.

Deflation
A situation of falling prices (negative inflation).

Hyperinflation
A situation of extreme inflation where prices double
within three years.
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11.3 Inflation

Question: What causes inflation?

Data: Average money growth and inflation rates


for 2000‒2010 for 179 countries (World
Development Indicators).

Prediction: Inflation rate = Growth rate of


money supply – 3%

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11.3 Inflation
Money Growth and Inflation (179 countries)

3,500
Zimbabwe
3,000

2,500
Average inflation rate (%)

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Average money growth (%)

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11.3 Inflation
Money Growth and Inflation (178 countries)
Democratic Republic of Congo
110

100

90

80
Average inflation rate (%)

70
Angola
60

50

40 Belarus

30 Venezuela
Serbia Guinea
20
Tajikistan
10

0
Japa 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
n Average money growth (%)

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Money Supply
Growth and Inflation
in Brazil
Money and Prices
in Brazil, 1985–1995
11.3 Inflation

Under inflation, all prices


and all wages do not
always move together.

Under inflation, some


relative prices, including
the real wage and real interest rate, can change.

This creates winners who benefit from unexpected


gains and losers who suffer from unexpected losses.
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11.3 Inflation

Who wins and who loses from unexpected


inflation?

Winners:

1. A homeowner paying a mortgage at a fixed


rate of interest
2. The owners of a firm (shareholders) paying
a pension that is not indexed for inflation

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11.3 Inflation

Losers:

1. A bank receiving payments on a mortgage at a


fixed rate of interest
2. A retiree receiving a pension that is not
indexed for inflation

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Borrowers and lenders
• Real interest rate = Nominal int.rate
-Inflation
• If expected inflation > actual inflation  lenders
gain
• If expected inflation < actual inflation  borrowers
gain
• But note that if the gap occurs frequently,
individuals would refrain from lending and
borrowing short-term contracts only
• So, if inflation is expected, no damage other than
the three costs listed below
Costs:
• Shoe-leather costs
• Menu costs
• Unit of account costs
11.3 Inflation

Inflation imposes social costs due to:

1. Raising logistical costs


2. Distorting relative prices

Inflation can lead to counterproductive policies


such as price controls.

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11.3 Inflation

Inflation generates social benefits such as:

1. Generating government revenue from printing


currency
2. Sometimes stimulating economic activity

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11 The Monetary System

Evidence-Based Economics Example:

Question: What caused the


German hyperinflation of
1922‒1923?

Data: Historical money


supply data.

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11 The Monetary System

Historical Timeline:
• 1919: Germany signs the Treaty of Versailles,
thus ending World War I.
• 1923: German workers in the Ruhr go on
strike to protest the French occupation.
• November 1923: Hitler attempts to overthrow
the government in the Beer Hall Putsch.
• 1933: Hitler is elected chancellor of Germany.

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11 The Monetary System

Exhibit 11.3 Currency in Circulation During the Weimar


Republic

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11 The Monetary System

Evidence-Based Economics Example:

Question: What caused the German


hyperinflation of 1922–1923?

Answer: The German government could not


make reparation payments to the Allies after
World War I. As the German economy struggled,
the government started to print more and more
currency to pay its bills.
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11.4 The Federal Reserve

The central bank is the government institution


that:

• Monitors financial institutions


• Controls certain key interest rates
• Indirectly controls the money supply

These activities are known as monetary policy.

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve Bank, or the Fed, is the


central bank of the United States.

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

The Fed is composed of three parts:

• Twelve Federal Reserve district banks


throughout the country
• A 7-member Board of Governors in
Washington D.C.
• A 12-member Federal Open Market
Committee, composed of 5 regional bank
presidents and the 7 board members
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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Exhibit 11.4 Geographic Boundaries of the Federal


Reserve Districts

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

The Fed uses monetary policy to pursue two key


goals or objectives:

1. Low and predictable levels of inflation

2. Maximum (sustainable) levels of employment

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

What does the central bank do?

• Influences short-term interest rates, especially


the federal funds rate

• Influences the money supply and the inflation


rate

• Influences long-term real interest rates


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11.4 The Federal Reserve
To understand these three objectives, we will
discuss the following, in order:
1. The role of bank reserves in the economy
2. The equilibrium in the market for bank
reserves
3. The Fed’s influence on the money supply and
inflation
4. The impact of short-term interest rates on
long-term interest rates
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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Bank reserves are the combination of deposits that


private banks hold at the central bank and cash in
their vaults.

Bank reserves provide liquidity to


private banks.

Liquidity refers to funds (and


assets) that can be used immediately
to conduct transactions.
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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Federal funds market


The market where banks borrow and lend
reserves to one another.

Federal funds rate


The overnight (24-hour) interest rate charged
in this market.

We will use the supply and demand model to see


how the federal funds rate is determined.
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11.4 The Federal Reserve

The demand curve for reserves plots the total


quantity of reserves demanded by private banks
for each level of the federal funds rate.

The demand curve slopes downward because


optimizing banks choose to hold more reserves as
the cost of those reserves—the federal funds
rate—falls.

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Exhibit 11.5 The Demand Curve in the Federal Funds


Market (demand curve for reserves only)
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11.4 The Federal Reserve

The demand curve for bank reserves shifts when


one of the following changes occurs:

1. Economic expansion or contraction


2. Changing liquidity needs
3. Changing deposit base
4. Changing reserve requirement
5. Changing interest paid by the Fed for deposits
at the Fed
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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Example: The Christmas holiday increases


withdrawals and thus the liquidity needs of banks.

Question: What would happen to the demand


curve in the federal funds market?

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Exhibit 11.5 The Demand Curve in the Federal Funds Market


(demand curve for reserves and right shift in the demand curve)
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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Situation: An economic contraction decreases


bank lending.

Question: What would happen to the demand


curve in the federal funds market?

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Exhibit 11.5 The Demand Curve in the Federal Funds Market


(demand curve for reserves and left shift in the demand curve)
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11.4 The Federal Reserve

The supply curve for reserves plots the quantity


of reserves supplied by the Federal Reserve
through open market operations.

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

In an open market purchase, the Fed buys


government bonds from private banks and in
return gives the private banks more reserves.

In an open market sale, the Fed sells


government bonds to private banks, and in return
the private banks give some of their reserves.

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

The supply curve for reserves plots the quantity


of reserves supplied by the Federal Reserve
through open market operations.

The supply curve is vertical because the Federal


Reserve supplies reserves not to earn economic
profits but rather to pursue monetary policy.

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve chooses between two


alternative strategies when it implements
monetary policy:

1. The Federal Reserve can keep reserves fixed,


even when the demand curve shifts, and thus
allow the federal funds rate to fluctuate.

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Exhibit 11.6 Equilibrium in the Federal Funds Market

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

2. The Federal Reserve can supply more or less


reserves to keep the federal funds rate
constant.

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Exhibit 11.8 Picking Reserves to Keep the Federal Funds Rate Fixed

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve can control either the


quantity of reserves or the federal funds rate (the
price) but not both.

The Fed has followed the second strategy for the


past 30 years.

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

However, the Fed will periodically raise and


lower its federal funds target in order to meet its
dual objectives of low inflation and maximum
employment.

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Exhibit 11.9 Shifts in the Federal Funds Rate Induced by a Shift in the
Supply of Reserves

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Exhibit 11.10 The Federal Funds Rate Between July 1954 and
January 2014
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TCMB Overnight Interest Rates and Interest on Monthly

Deposits (2000-2008)

100.00

90.00

80.00

70.00

60.00

50.00 CBRT O/N INTEREST RATE


TRL DEPOSIT RATE
40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
TCMB Overnight Interest Rates and Interest on Monthly

Deposits (2003-2008)

50.00

45.00

40.00

35.00

30.00

25.00
CBRT O/N INTEREST RATE
20.00 TRL DEPOSIT RATE

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00
2003-10

2004-10

2005-10

2006-10

2007-10

2008-10
2003-1
2003-4
2003-7

2004-1
2004-4
2004-7

2005-1
2005-4
2005-7

2006-1
2006-4
2006-7

2007-1
2007-4
2007-7

2008-1
2008-4
2008-7
© 2015 Pearson Education, Ltd.
© 2015 Pearson Education, Ltd.
© 2015 Pearson Education, Ltd.
The Great Disinflation of the 1980s
11.4 The Federal Reserve

Summary of the Fed’s Control of the Federal


Funds Rate:

The Fed can influence the federal funds rate by


either shifting the quantity of reserves supplied or
by shifting the demand for reserves.

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Exhibit 11.9 Shifts in the Federal Funds Rate Induced by a Shift in the
Supply of Reserves

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Summary of the Fed’s Control of the Federal


Funds Rate:

The Fed can shift the demand of reserves by


changing the reserve requirement and by
changing interest paid on reserves.

The Fed can shift the supply curve of reserves


through open market operations.
© 2015 Pearson Education, Ltd.
11.4 The Federal Reserve

We said earlier that the second part of the Fed’s


management of bank reserves is to influence the
money supply and the inflation rate.

Question: Why can’t the Fed directly control


either the money supply or the inflation rate?

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Answer: The money supply is the sum of


currency in circulation plus deposits at banks by
households and firms. It does not include bank
reserves.

In the long run, inflation is equal to the growth


rate of money.

© 2015 Pearson Education, Ltd.


11.4 The Federal Reserve

However, the Fed can use its three tools—open


market operations, reserve requirements, and
interest on reserves—to influence the money
supply and the inflation rate.

Question: What policies would reduce the


growth rate of money and the inflation rate?

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Answer: Open market sales, increased reserve


requirements, and paying interest on reserves
would reduce the growth rate of money and the
inflation rate.

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

The third consequence of the Fed’s management


of bank reserves is its influence over long-term
interest rates by altering inflationary
expectations:

Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate –


Inflation rate

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Investment decisions depend on long-term


expected real interest rates.

Long-term indicates 10 years or more.

The expected real interest rate is the nominal


interest rate minus expected inflation.

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

There are two types of real interest rates:

Realized real interest rate = Nominal interest rate


– Realized inflation rate

Expected real interest rate = Nominal interest rate


– Expected inflation rate

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Monetary policy in the form of open market


operations can impact long-term interest rates.

Think of a 10-year loan rate as 10 1-year loans


lined up one after the other:

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Questions:

What is the nominal 10-year interest rate for a


federal funds rate target of 4%?

What is the nominal 0-year interest rate for a


federal funds rate of 3% for the first two years
and 4% afterward?

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Answer: The 10-year nominal interest rates are:

4%  4%  4%  4%  4%  4%  4%  4%  4%  4%
= 4.0%
10

3%  3%  4%  4%  4%  4%  4%  4%  4%  4%
= 3.8%
10

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Question: What would be the real 10-year


interest rate if inflationary expectations remained
at 2%?

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

Answer:

10-year real interest rate = 10-year nominal


interest rate – Inflationary expectations

10-year real interest rate = 4.0% – 2.0% = 2.0%

10-year real interest rate = 3.8% – 2.0% = 1.8%

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11.4 The Federal Reserve

The Fed can reduce the short-term federal funds


rate to lower long-term expected real interest
rates.

A 1% reduction in the federal funds rate target


translates into a less than 1% reduction in long-
term expected real interest rates.

In most cases, inflationary expectations stay about


the same.
© 2015 Pearson Education, Ltd.

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