Dinamika Penduduk, Pangan dan Air

I Dewa Gede Karma Wisana

(Dewa Wisana)
id.linkedin.com/in/dewawisana/

Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis

Universitas Indonesia
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Pengantar
‣ Sumber daya alam & lingkungan versus pembangunan

The Environment
Air
Energy Firm Pollution
(Production)
Solid
Air Waste
INPUTS
THE OUTPUTS
Water
ECONOMY Waste
Heat
Household
Amenities (Consumption) Water
Pollution

Raw Materials

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Bukti historis
‣ Apakah kelaparan (hanya) disebabkan oleh alam?
‣ Thomas Malthus: An Essay on the Principle of Population (1789)
- Population vs food

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Bukti historis
‣ Peradaban yang terkubur “kerusakan” yang manusia buat sendiri
‣ Peradaban Bangsa Maya Indian

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Peradaban Bangsa Maya Indian
‣ Pertumbuhan penduduk menjadi kendala lingkungan di abad ke-5
- Penduduk tergantung pada satu jenis tanaman: jagung
‣ Awal abad ke-6, daya dukung tanah setempat yang paling produktif
melampaui batasnya
- Para petani menggunakan hampir semua tanah yang paling kritis
- Produksi pangan tidak mampu mengejar pertumbuhan penduduk
‣ Pertengahan abad ke-8, penduduk mencapai puncak sejarahnya
- Deforestasi semakin meluas, erosi semakin parah
- Mortalitas (dewasa & balita) meningkat dan malnutrisi

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Misteri Easter Island

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Misteri Easter Island

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Misteri Easter Island
‣ Dikenal dalam bahasa setempat dengan sebutan “Rapa Nui” (Big
Rapa) atau Island de Pascua dalam bahasa Spanyol
‣ Terletak di selatan Samudera Pasifik dan masuk ke dalam wilayah
Chile
‣ Salah satu daerah paling terpencil di dunia
‣ Luas wilayah: 163.6 km2 (bandingkan Kota Depok 200,29 km2)
‣ Penduduk: 3.791 (Sensus 2002) (bandingkan Kota Depok 1.7juta -
tahun 2010) – 23 orang/km2 vs 8.500 orang/km2

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Misteri Easter Island

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Misteri Easter Island
‣ Moai = patung batu raksasa
‣ Kegiatan megalitik yang paling
produktif dan kreatif antara abad
ke-10 hingga ke-16/17
‣ Sering diidentifikasi sebagai
“kepala”, namun sesungguhnya
terdiri dari kepala dan badan
(torso) yang utuh

Moai at Rano Raraku

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 Misteri Easter Island: 3 skenario
‣ Diyakini bahwa Easter Island memiliki hutan palma (palm), namun
mengalami deforestasi yang dilakukan oleh penduduk asli terutama
untuk memindahkan dan mendirikan patung-patung Moai
‣ Tikus polynesia, memakan semua bibit pohon palma
‣ Dampak perubahan iklim akibat Abad Es Kecil (Little Ice Age)
sekitar 1650–1850

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 Misteri Easter Island: Apa yang terjadi?
‣ Kerusakan ekosistem yang sangat hebat: “The overall picture for
Easter Island is the most extreme example of forest destruction
in the Pacific, and among the most extreme in the world: the
whole forest gone, and all of its tree species extinct.”
‣ Mengalami erosi tanah yang parah
‣ Ketersediaan bahan makanan untuk penduduk habis dan
mengakibatkan kanibalisme

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Other “mystery” civilization
‣ New Zealand – South Island
‣ Maya Cities
‣ Ur – Mesopotamia
‣ Chaco Anasazi or Ancient Pueblo peoples

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Lesson learned
‣ Bagaimana visi masa depan umat manusia?
‣ The Basic PESSIMIST Model:
‣ Sumber: Laporan untuk Club of Rome
‣ Model dikembangkan oleh Jay Forrester “The Limits to
Growth” (1971) dan revisinya “Beyond the Limits” (1992)

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Lesson learned
‣ The Basic OPTIMIST model:
‣ Julian Simon, dkk
‣ Sumber: “The Ultimate Resource” (1981)

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The Bottom Line for the Future
‣ Can Billions More People Be Fed?
‣ The relationship between economic development and food?
‣ Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions
‣ Extensification and Intensification of Agriculture
‣ Weather problem:
‣ Drought
‣ Famine
‣ By-product of development: degradation of environment
‣ If the population ex- ceeds an ecosystem’s carrying capacity in any
one of these categories, we have a situ- ation of overshoot or
overpopulation.

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Table 11.2 Inputs to Agriculture Not Keeping Pace with Population Growth
Arable and
Total permanent Irrigated Fertilizer
population cropland agric area consumption Tractors Fish catch
Year (1,000) (1,000ha) (1,000ha) (MT) in use (MT)

1961 3,078,867 1,356,722 139,134 31,182,244 11,318,243 39,182,424

1971 3,765,507 1,405,053 171,807 73,310,242 16,524,147 65,876,902
1981 4,505,510 1,442,386 213,532 115,147,224 22,311,077 75,093,428
1991 5,338,524 1,504,117 248,724 134,606,391 26,248,089 98,286,362
2001 6,134,138 1,532,090 273,052 137,729,730 26,854,002 126,178,607

Per Person

1961 0.44 0.045 0.010 0.0037 0.013

1971 0.37 0.046 0.019 0.0044 0.017
1981 0.32 0.047 0.026 0.0050 0.017
1991 0.28 0.047 0.025 0.0049 0.018
2001 0.25 0.045 0.022 0.0044 0.021

Source: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTATS database, http://www.fao.org, accessed
2003. Figures in italics indicate per person rates that were lower than in the previous time period.

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Isu Lingkungan Terkini: Perubahan Iklim
‣ Population dynamics and the drivers of climate change
‣ population change and development trends: consumption and
levels of urbanization, poverty, energy
‣ Contoh: pertumbuhan penduduk dan emisi gas rumah kaca
‣ Inverse relation: climate change drive population change
‣ Contoh: perubahan iklim mengakibatkan mobilitas penduduk

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 combination of immigrant and native reproductive patterns has boosted vigorous
Isu Lingkungan Terkini: Perubahan Iklim
fertility rates that are likely to remain high in the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, several developing countries now have the type of low fertility
rates that until recently were found only in high-income countries. The Chinese

Figure 1.1 Evolution of Population, GNP Per Capita and CO2

Emissions, World, 1950-2000
500
450 Population
Index 1950=100 400 GNPP
350 CO2 Emissions
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003

Sources: Population data from United Nations, 2008b; GNPP data from Maddison, 2004; and CO2 emissions
from Marland et al., 2007.

POPULATION DYNAMICS AND POLICIES IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE 11

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 of this future growth will be concentrated in developing countries, especially in
Isu Lingkungan Terkini: Perubahan Iklim
Africa and Asia (see Figure 1.2). These two lag far behind other continents in terms
of urbanization levels, but the present and future growth in absolute numbers of
urban people in these regions is massive and unprecedented.

Figure 1.2: Proportion of World Urban Growth, By Region,

2010-2050
North America
Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania
Europe

Africa
Asia

Source: United Nations, 2008a.

This transformation will have enormous implications for climate change, given
the increasing concentration and magnitude of economic production in urban
localities, as well as the higher living standards that urbanites enjoy by compari-
son to rural populations. Urban concentration will also be critical for mitigation 21 /25
Isu Lingkungan Terkini: Perubahan Iklim
Million Ton CO2

70

60
Coal Oil Gas

50

40

30

20

10

0
Pow er Manufacture Household and Transport
generation commercial

Source: Department of Energy and Mineral Resources

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Isu Lingkungan Terkini: Perubahan Iklim

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Isu Lingkungan Terkini: Perubahan Iklim

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Bagaimana selanjutnya…?

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