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Southern Indian Ocean SST as a modulator for the progression of Indian

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Theor Appl Climatol (2018) 131:705–717
DOI 10.1007/s00704-016-2004-6
ORIGINAL PAPER
Southern Indian Ocean SST as a modulator for the progression
of Indian summer monsoon
Namendra Kumar Shahi 1 & Shailendra Rai 1,2 & Nishant Mishra 1,3
Received: 27 December 2015 / Accepted: 10 November 2016 / Published online: 22 November 2016
# Springer-Verlag Wien 2016
Abstract This study explores the possibility of southern
Indian Ocean (SIO) sea surface temperature (SST) as a mod-
ulator for the early phase of Indian summer monsoon and its
possible physical mechanism. A dipole-like structure is ob-
tained from the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis
which is similar to an Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD)
found earlier. A subtropical dipole index (SDI) is defined
based on the SST anomaly over the positive and negative
poles. The regression map of rainfall over India in the month
of June corresponding to the SDI during 1983–2013 shows
negative patterns along the Western Ghats and Central India.
However, the regression pattern is insignificant during 1952–
1982. The multiple linear regression models and partial corre-
lation analysis also indicate that the SDI acts as a dominant
factor to influence the rainfall over India in the month of June
during 1983–2013. The similar result is also obtained with the
help of composite rainfall over the land points of India in the
month of June for positive (negative) SDI events. It is also
observed that the positive (negative) SDI delays (early) the
onset dates of Indian monsoon over Kerala during the time
domain of our study. The study is further extended to identify
the physical mechanism of this impact, and it is found that the
heating (cooling) in the region covering SDI changes the
* Shailendra Rai
raishail77@gmail.com
1
K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies, University of
Allahabad, Allahabad, UP 211002, India
2
M. N. Saha Centre of Space Studies, University of Allahabad,
Allahabad, UP, India
3
Department of Statistics, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, UP,
India
circulation pattern in the SIO and hence impacts the progres-
sion of monsoon in India.
1 Introduction
Many of the previous studies show that the Indian Ocean sea
surface temperature (SST) plays an important role in tropical
climate variability. The variability in the Indian Ocean has
much impact on the society, and many studies have been de-
voted for the understanding. The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD,
Saji et al. 1999) is one of the dominant modes of climate
variability in the tropical Indian Ocean, and its impact on the
climate of other regions have been investigated extensively
(Saji et al. 1999; Yamagata et al. 2004; Chang et al. 2006).
There is another climate mode in the southern Indian Ocean
(SIO) called as Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD;
Behera and Yamagata 2001) which is less explored. The pos-
itive phase of IOSD event is associated with positive SST
anomalies in the south-western and negative anomalies in
north-eastern part of the SIO during the austral summer.
Many of the previous studies indicate that such subtropical
events are related to Mascarene high (Behera and Yamagata
2001; Reason 2001, 2002). It has been also shown that the
interannual variability of austral summer SST in the SIO is
much stronger than that in the tropical region (Terray 2011).
The influence of the IOSD on the African rainfall has been
explored by many studies (Reason 1998, 1999, 2001; Reason
and Mulenga 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2001; Yuan et al.
2014). It is also found that the IOSD affects the South China
Sea summer monsoon onset (Liang et al. 2006; Wen et al.
2006; Yu and Feng 2011), and it can be considered as one of
the predictors for the accurate prediction of rainfall in China
(Qiuming 2006; Yang and Ding 2007). However, there are
few studies which indicate that the SIO may influence rainfall
706 N. Shahi et al.
 SIO SST as a modulator for progression of Indian summer monsoon
ƒFig. 1 The first EOF mode of December–January–February (DJF) and
March–April–May (MAM) SSTA (in °C) during 1952–1982 (a and b,
respectively) and 1983–2013 (c and d, respectively)
anomalies over tropical IOD (Feng et al. 2014; Fischer et al.
2005), ENSO (Boschat et al. 2013; Terray and Dominiak
2005; Terray et al. 2005, 2007) and Indian Australian summer
monsoon (Terray and Dominiak 2005; Terray et al. 2003,
2005, 2007; Yoo et al. 2010; Yang and Ding 2006; England
et al. 2006; Rai and Pandey 2008; Nayagam et al. 2013;
Viswambharan and Mohanakumar 2013). The influence of
SIO on the Indian summer monsoon variability has been less
explored and it is at preliminary stage.
In the present work, the influence of SIO SST on the Indian
summer monsoon is investigated. The research paper is struc-
tured as follows. The data and method used in the present
work are described in Section 2. The interannual variability
of the SIO SST is presented in Section 3. The relationship
Fig. 2 Normalized time series of the PC of the first EOF mode of DJF
(black) and MAM (red) SSTA and normalized SDI of DJF (green) and
MAM (blue) during a 1952–1982 and b 1983–2013
707
between the SIO SST and the Indian summer monsoon and
its possible physical mechanism are discussed in Sections 4
and 5, respectively. The summary of the work done and con-
cluding remarks are given in Section 6.
2 Data and method
In the present work, monthly mean observed SST data from
the Hadley Centre sea ice and sea surface temperature
(HadISSTv1.1) (Rayner et al. 2003) during 1952–2013 with
a resolution of 2.5° × 2.5° has been used. The wind velocity
data have been taken from the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis dataset (Kalnay et al.
1996) during 1983–2013 on a 2.5° × 2.5° grid. The observed
mean daily (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded rainfall dataset from the
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) over the land points
of India during 1952–2013 has been used (Pai et al. 2014).
The daily rainfall data of IMD has been collected by more than
3700 rain gauge stations.
The empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis has
been applied to describe the variability of SST in the SIO
region. The correlation and linear regression analysis are also
used in this study to analyse the possible impact of SST in SIO
region to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
3 Interannual variability of the SIO SST
It is known that the IOSD develops in austral spring, peaks in
summer, and decays in autumn (Behera and Yamagata 2001).
In order to understand the interannual IOSD variability during
the austral summer and its relationship with Indian summer
monsoon, the EOF analysis is applied on the seasonal sea
surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the SIO region
(30° E–120° E, 60° S–Eq.) averaged in December–January–
February (DJF) and March–April–May (MAM). Behera and
Yamagata (2001) suggested that the IOSD develops in
December–January peaks in February and dies down during
May–June. We wish to see the effect of developing and dying
phase of IOSD on Indian summer monsoon and therefore both
the DJF and MAM seasons were taken during the time domain
1952–1982 and 1983–2013. The first EOF mode of DJF and
MAM during 1952–1982 (1983–2013) explains a variance of
28.5% (26.2%) and 25.3% (28.7%), respectively. The spatial
patterns associated with the first EOF mode of DJF and MAM
are shown in Fig. 1a, b for 1952–1982 and in Fig. 1c, d for
1983–2013, respectively. The spatial patterns of first EOF
mode of DJF and MAM are labelled as EOF1_DJF and
708
EOF1_MAM, respectively, and corresponding principal com-
ponents (PCs) are represented by PC1_DJF and PC1_MAM,
respectively, for both the time domains. The spatial patterns of
EOF1_DJF and EOF1_MAM show dipole-like pattern in the
SIO region during both the time domains. The SST pattern
found over the SIO region is consistent with that of Behera
and Yamagata (2001). The spatial pattern of EOF1_DJF is
almost similar to the EOF1_MAM except a slight variation
at few places for both the time domains. The temporal varia-
tions of PC1_DJF and PC1_MAM are shown in Fig. 2a dur-
ing 1952–1982 and in Fig. 2b during 1983–2013. Moreover,
PC1_DJF and PC1_MAM are positively correlated with cor-
relation coefficients 0.50 and 0.80 for the time domains 1952–
1982 and 1983–2013, respectively.
A subtropical dipole index (SDI) is introduced and defined
as the difference of SST anomalies between the south-western
Indian Ocean (SWIO) and the south-eastern Indian Ocean
(SEIO). The SWIO and SEIO regions chosen for the compu-
tation of SDI for DJF and MAM seasons during both the time
domains are shown in Table 1. The SDI for the DJF and MAM
are labelled as SDI_DJF and SDI_MAM, respectively, for
both time domains. The correlation coefficients of PC1_DJF
with SDI_DJF and PC1_MAM with SDI_MAM during the
time domain 1952–1982 are 0.97 and 0.92, respectively
(Fig. 2a). However, these correlations are 0.91 and 0.85, re-
spectively for the time domain 1983–2013 (Fig. 2b). These
high correlation values indicate that the accuracy of the SDI in
representing the dipole mode of SST and our results will be
qualitatively the same even if we use the PC.
4 Influence of the SIO on the Indian summer
monsoon
In this section, the relationship between the SDI and Indian
summer monsoon has been explored. The extra-tropical oscil-
lation in the Southern Hemisphere can modulate the circula-
tion pattern in the Northern Hemisphere (Viswambharan and
Mohanakumar 2013). The SDI pattern in DJF and MAM in
the Southern Hemisphere can persist to the Indian summer
Table 1 The SST indices of SIO
region Name of the index Time domain
SDI_DJF 1952–1982
1983–2013
SDI_MAM 1952–1982
1983–2013
The difference of area-averaged SST anomalies over the SWIO and SEIO regions
N. Shahi et al.
Fig. 3 Regressed rainfall (in mm) in the month of June with respect to„
SDI_DJF and SDI_MAM during 1952–1982 (a and b, respectively) and
1983–2013 (c and d, respectively)
monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere. In order to verify the
above hypothesis, regression map is computed corresponding
to the time series of normalized SDI_DJF and SDI_MAM
with the rainfall of India in each month during 1952–1982
and 1983–2013. The regression map of June month corre-
sponding to SDI_DJF and SDI_MAM during time domain
1983–2013 (Fig. 3c, d) shows significant negative patterns
along Western Ghats and Central India. However, the regres-
sion pattern is insignificant during 1952–1982 (Fig. 3a, b).
This suggests to the first instant that the SST in the SDI region
impacts the rainfall over India in the month of June which is
the progressing phase of the Indian summer monsoon.
Further, area-averaged rainfall over land points of India has
been calculated for the month of June (henceforth RF_June).
The interannual correlation coefficient of SDI_DJF and
SDI_MAM with RF_June has been computed for both the
time domains. The value of the correlation coefficient is found
to be −0.44 and −0.44 for SDI_DJF and SDI_MAM, respec-
tively, during 1983–2013 (Fig. 4b) whereas it is insignificant
during 1952–1982 (Fig. 4a). This indicates that the SDI_DJF
and SDI_MAM are related with the Indian monsoon rainfall
in the month of June in recent years. We have also computed
the SDI for DJF and MAM seasons during 1952–2013. The
SWIO and SEIO regions chosen for the computation of SDI
for DJF and MAM seasons during 1952–2013 are similar to
that of 1952–1982 and given in Table 1. Further, 30-year
running correlation of RF_June with SDI_DJF and
SDI_MAM is calculated during 1952–2013 (Fig. 5). It seems
from Fig. 5 that a sudden deepening of correlation value is
found after 1979. This may be due to the fact of regime shift
after 1976–1977 (Terray and Dominiak 2005; Sahana et al.
2015; Sabeerali et al. 2012). Therefore, we divided the dataset
into two parts having equal number of 31 years each. It is
observed from the above analysis that the SDI affects rainfall
over India in the month of June during 1983–2013 and this
impact is missing during 1952–1982. Therefore, further ex-
SWIO region SEIO region
55° E–70° E, 40° S–30° S 87° E–102° E, 30° S–20° S
45° E–60° E, 45° S–35° S 80° E–95° E, 30° S–20° S
60° E–75° E, 45° S–35° S 87° E–102° E, 30° S–20° S
45° E–60° E, 45° S–35° S 60° E–75° E, 19° S–9° S
SIO SST as a modulator for progression of Indian summer monsoon 709
710 N. Shahi et al.

Table 2 Partial correlation coefficients between the index in the first

column and RF_June during 1983–2013 after eliminating the impact of
index computing for the respective season in the first row

Name of the index IOD NINO3.4 IOD and NINO3.4

SDI_DJF −0.46 −0.33 −0.38

SDI_MAM −0.47 −0.33 −0.38

All the values are significant at 95% confidence level

It is a well-known fact that the IOD and NINO3.4 are

Fig. 4 Normalized RF_June (black), SDI_DJF (red) and SDI_MAM
(green) during a 1952–1982 and b 1983–2013
ploration of the causes responsible for this impact is limited to
the recent years only, that is for the time domain 1983–2013.
directly related to the Indian summer monsoon (Lau and
Nath 2000; Saji et al. 1999; Ashok et al. 2001, 2004). The
NINO3.4 index is computed by taking the area average of
SST anomalies over the region (5° N–5° S, 120° W–170°
W) (Trenberth 1997; Trenberth and Stepaniak 2001) for DJF
and MAM during the time domain 1983–2013. The IOD (Saji
et al. 1999) index is obtained by taking the difference of area
average SST anomalies between the western equatorial Indian
Ocean (IODW; 50° E–70° E, 10° S–10° N) and the eastern
equatorial Indian Ocean (IODE; 90° E–110° E, 10° S–Eq.)
regions for DJF and MAM during the time domain 1983–
2013. Multiple linear regression models are constructed
(Draper and Smith 1981) to see the combined effect of IOD,
NINO3.4 and SDI for both the DJF and MAM seasons on the
RF_June during 1983–2013. The RF_June has been taken as
explained variable and IOD, NINO3.4 and SDI as explanatory
variables to construct the linear models. The equations of the
line of regression are given below
RF June ¼ 0:05−0:24  NINO3:4 þ 0:19  IOD−0:43
 SDI ðfor DJFÞ ð1Þ
RF June ¼ 0:04−0:18  NINO3:4 þ 0:22  IOD−0:39
 SDI ðfor MAMÞ ð2Þ

Table 3 The anomalous positive and negative years are identified

when the normalized SDI_DJF, SDI_MAM and RF_June are greater
(less) than +0.7 (−0.7) during 1983–2013

Name of the index Years

Positive
SDI_DJF 1988, 1995, 1998, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2013
SDI_MAM 1987, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2009, 2010
RF_June 1990, 1994, 2001, 2007, 2008, 2011, 2013
Negative
SDI_DJF 1986, 1990, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2011
Fig. 5 Thirty-year running correlation coefficient between the SDI_DJF SDI_MAM 1986, 1993, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2011
and RF_June (blue) and SDI_MAM and RF_June (red) during 1952– RF_June 1987, 1992, 1995, 2009, 2010, 2012
2013
SIO SST as a modulator for progression of Indian summer monsoon 711

Table 4 The actual onset dates (Pai and Nair 2009; Puranik et al. 2013; the seasons on the RF_June by eliminating the linear ef-
Pattanaik et al. 2015) and deviation of actual onset dates with respect to
fects of IOD and NINO3.4 during 1983–2013, and the
the normal onset date (1 June) during 1983–2013
results are shown in Table 2. It is observed from Table 2
Years Actual onset Deviation of actual onset that IOD does not influence the relationship between the
dates dates during 1983–2013 SDI for both the seasons and RF_June, whereas NINO3.4
with respect to the normal
onset date of 1 June slightly influences this relationship. Thus, it seems that
(in days) the SDI for both the seasons is a dominant factor which
influences the rainfall over India in the month of June
1983 12 June +11 during 1983–2013.
1984 1 June 0 The possible impact of SDI on the onset dates of mon-
1985 24 May −8 soon over Kerala has been investigated for the time do-
1986 12 June +11 main 1983–2013. The actual onset dates of monsoon over
1987 1 June 0 Kerala have been taken from Pai and Nair (2009), Puranik
1988 2 June +1 et al. (2013), Pattanaik et al. (2015), Raju et al. (2005)
1989 4 June +3 and Bhatla et al. (2016) during 1983–2013. The deviation
1990 18 May −14 of actual onset dates during 1983–2013 with respect to
1991 2 June +1 normal onset date of 1 June (Pai and Nair 2009; Puranik
1992 5 June +4 et al. 2013) is computed and is shown in Table 4. The
1993 3 June +2 early (delay) monsoon onsets are assigned negative
1994 28 May −4 (positive) sign as shown in Table 4. The positive and
1995 10 June +9 negative SDI years for DJF and MAM seasons during
1996 9 June +8 1983–2013 are shown in Table 3. The numbers in column
1997 12 June +11 3 of Table 4 have been added for the positive SDI years of
1998 3 June +2 DJF (MAM) and the sum is found to be +16 (+8). Similar
1999 22 May −10 computation has been done for the negative SDI years of
2000 1 June 0 DJF (MAM) and the sum is found to be −11 (−6). This
2001 26 May −6 indicates that the negative (positive) SDI event for both
2002 9 June +8 the seasons also effect the early (delay) monsoon onset
2003 13 June +12 over Kerala.
2004 3 June +2 The composite analysis has been applied to further dem-
2005 7 June +6 onstrate the robustness of the relationship between the SDI
2006 26 May −6 for both the seasons and RF_June. We computed standard
2007 28 May −4 deviations (SDs) of SDI_DJF and SDI_MAM during
2008 31 May −1 1983–2013. The SDI_DJF and SDI_MAM are divided by
2009 23 May −9 corresponding SDs to get normalized values. The positive
2010 31 May −1 (negative) SDI years has been identified when the normal-
2011 29 May −3 ized values are greater (less) than +0.70(−0.70) (Li et al.
2012 5 June +4
2001) for DJF and MAM during 1983–2013 and are given
2013 1 June 0
in Table 3. The composite rainfall over the land points of
India in the June month for the years having positive
(negative) SDI events for both the seasons is computed
and is shown in Fig. 6. It is found that rainfall is deficient
The coefficients in a regression model are estimated by (excess) in the month of June throughout the Indian sub-
principle of least squares, i.e. minimizing the mean continent during 1983–2013 for the years having positive
squared error (Borowiak 2001). It appears from the above (negative) SDI. The difference between the composites of
equations that SDI acts as a dominant factor in the regu- SSTA of DJF season (Fig. 7a) for positive and negative
lation of RF_June compared to IOD and NINO3.4 during SDI_DJF years has been computed for the time domain
the time domain of our study. The above results are ver- 1983–2013. Similar computation has been done for com-
ified by applying the partial correlation analysis (Wilks posite of SSTA of MAM season (Fig. 7b) for positive and
1995) to explore the individual effect of SDI for both negative SDI_MAM years for the same time period. It is
712 N. Shahi et al.
 SIO SST as a modulator for progression of Indian summer monsoon 713

ƒFig. 6 Composite of the rainfall (in mm) in the month of June for a
positive and b negative SDI_DJF years and c positive and d negative
SDI_MAM years

observed that the structures of SSTA in the composite map

for DJF (Fig. 7a) and MAM (Fig. 7b) seasons resemble to
that derived from the EOF analysis in Fig. 1c, d, respec-
tively during 1983–2013. The composite map of June
month rainfall over India corresponding to the positive-
minus-negative years for SDI_DJF (Fig. 8a) and
SDI_MAM (Fig. 8b) shows a similar pattern with the
regressed rainfall for June month corresponding to
SDI_DJF (Fig. 3c) and SDI_MAM (Fig. 3d) during
1983–2013. This further strengthens our argument that
the SDI for both the seasons impacts the rainfall over
India during the progressing phase of the monsoon.
Lawrence and Webster (2001) showed that the Intra
Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) of Indian summer monsoon

Fig. 8 The difference between the composite of rainfall (in mm) in the
month of June for positive and negative years of a SDI_DJF and b SDI_
MAM

rainfall (ISMR) is the strongest during the early phase of

ISMR, and it may be a reason that SIO is affecting the early
phase of the ISMR. It is also possible that the statistics
computed from June may be strongly dependent on the
date of the ISMR onset, which is uncorrelated with season-
al ISMR rainfall (Rao and Goswami 1988). It is difficult to
explain the exact reason about the cause and effect of the
relationship between the SIO region and the early phase of
ISMR at this stage, and it requires specifically designed
modelling experiments.

5 Atmospheric circulation features responsible

for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall
Fig. 7 The difference between the composite of SSTA (in °C) of the a
DJF season for positive and negative SDI_DJF years and that of the b In this section, the possible physical mechanism by which
MAM season for positive and negative SDI_MAM years SDI impacts the rainfall over India in the month of June
714
Fig. 9 The composite of rainfall (in mm) in the month of June for a
negative and b positive years of RF_June
has been discussed. We know that the variability of rainfall
is directly associated with the atmospheric circulation, so
we have used the observed wind data during 1983–2013
for this purpose.
The RF_June is divided by its SD to get normalized
values during 1983–2013. The positive (negative)
RF_June years are identified when the normalized values
are greater (less) than +0.70 (−0.70) (Li et al. 2001)
during 1983–2013 and are given in Table 3. The com-
posite of the spatial pattern of the rainfall over the land
points of India for positive (negative) years are computed
and is shown in Fig. 9. It is evident from Fig. 9 that the
regions of deficient (excess) rainfall are similar to the
composites of positive (negative) SDI. This strengthens
our argument that the rainfall in the month of June over
the land points of India is closely related to the SDI for
both the seasons.
N. Shahi et al.
Furthermore, the circulation pattern associated with
positive and negative SDI years has been examined.
The composite of low level wind at 850 hPa in the
month of June corresponding to the years having positive
and negative SDI_DJF was computed. The composite
wind pattern at 850 hPa in the month of June for nega-
tive years of SDI_DJF shows large cyclonic and anti-
cyclonic patterns in both the southern and northern hemi-
sphere (Fig. 10a). It can be observed that the cyclonic
wind pattern formed near the Madagascar and anti-
cyclonic wind pattern over the south-west of Australia
(Fig. 10a). It seems from Fig. 10a that the south-
easterly winds near Madagascar and south-west of
Australia strengthens the southwest monsoon winds.
The strengthening of the south-westerly wind over the
Arabian Sea increases moisture content from Indian
Ocean towards the Indian subcontinent in the month of
June. The impact of SDI_DJF over the Western Ghat is
high which may be due to interaction of enhanced moist
south-westerly with the high land orography over this
region. Further, the wind moves towards north-eastern
India. The moist south-westerly wind converges with
easterly and northerly wind near the central India and
Himalaya region and this indicates formation of instabil-
ity near the central India and Himalaya region. It may be
considered as a reason of enhanced rainfall over this
region in the month of June. The composite wind pattern
at 850 hPa in the month of June for positive years of
SDI_DJF shows formation of anti-cyclonic wind pattern
near Madagascar and cyclonic wind pattern over the
south-west of Australia (Fig. 10b). It is clear from the
Fig. 10b that south-easterly winds near Madagascar and
south-west of Australia form a cyclonic pattern near
Arabian Sea region and weaken the strength of south-
westerly wind. The divergence of wind formed over the
central India and Himalaya region brings dry air and it
may be considered as a reason of decreased rainfall over
this region (Fig. 10b). The composite of low level wind
at 850 hPa in the month of June corresponding to the
years having positive and negative SDI_MAM (figure
not shown) has been computed and a similar pattern is
found as Fig. 10.
Thus, we can conclude that the Somali jet over
Arabian Sea are weakened (strengthened) corresponding
to the positive (negative) SDI events, suggesting a re-
duced (enhanced) cross equatorial monsoon flow near
the Arabian Sea region which in turn affects the early
phase of ISMR. The exact process of this interaction
warrants more investigation and must be addressed with
some GCM experiments.
SIO SST as a modulator for progression of Indian summer monsoon
Fig. 10 The composite of wind
(in m/s) at 850 hPa in the month
of June for a negative and b
positive years of SDI_DJF
6 Summary and conclusions
In the present work, the influence of SIO on Indian summer
monsoon has been investigated. The EOF analysis has been
applied on the seasonal SST anomalies over the SIO region
averaged in DJF and MAM seasons during the time domain
1952–1982 and 1983–2013. The centres of positive (negative)
SSTA were identified from the EOF analysis and SDI were
computed. The regressed rainfall over India in the month of
June corresponding to the SDI for DJF and MAM seasons
shows the significant patterns along the Western Ghats,
715
Central India regions during 1983–2013. A significant inter-
annual correlation coefficient has been found between the SDI
for both the seasons and RF_June during 1983–2013. This
indicates that the June rainfall of India is related to the SDI
for both the seasons during 1983–2013. However, the regres-
sion pattern and correlation coefficients are insignificant dur-
ing 1952–1982.
The 30-year running correlation between the SDI for both
the seasons and RF_June for the time domain 1952–2013
indicates that the impact of SDI on the June rainfall over
India is strengthening in the recent years. We obtained a
716
significant negative correlation after the regime shift of 1976–
1977 (Terray and Dominiak 2005; Sahana et al. 2015;
Sabeerali et al. 2012). The analysis was further extended,
and it is found from multiple linear regression models and
partial correlation analysis that the SDI acts as a dominant
factor to influence the rainfall over India in the month of
June in the recent years. We also found that the SDI also plays
an important role for the deviation of India monsoon onset
dates during 1983–2013.
This statement is further strengthened by computing com-
posite rainfall over the land points of India for June month in
the years having positive (negative) SDI events and the rain-
fall was found deficient (excess), respectively. Furthermore,
the composites of circulation pattern associated with positive
and negative SDI years have been examined for both the sea-
sons. It is found that the wind pattern favours the enhancement
of rainfall during the negative SDI years over India in the
month of June whereas opposite is true for positive SDI years.
Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Ministry of
Earth Sciences (MoES) and the Department of Science and Technology
(DST), Government of India, for the financial support to carry out this
research.
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