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3.General Mills Equity Report
3.General Mills Equity Report
3.General Mills Equity Report
1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
2. Analyst Rating .4
3. Analyst Suggestion .5
4. Business Segment .5
8. Executive Overview .7
9. Business Risk .8
10.Competitive Advantages .9
13.Valuation .12
15.Appendix
2
1. ABOUT THE COMPANY
General Mills, Inc., is an American multinational
manufacturer and marketer of branded processed
consumer foods sold through retail stores. The
company was founded by Illinois Congressman Robert
Smithho leased power rights to flour mills operating
along the west side of Saint Anthony Fallsbanks of the
Mississippi River at Saint Anthony Falls in
Minneapolis, the company originally gained fame for
being a large flour miller. The company can trace its
history to the Minneapolis Milling Company,
incorporated in 1856.
It is headquartered in Golden Valley, Minnesota, a
suburb of Minneapolis
Today, the company markets many well-known North
American brands, including Gold Medal flour, Annie's
Homegrown, Lärabar, Cascadian Farm, Betty Crocker,
Yoplait, Nature Valley, Totino's.
Products:
Breakfast cereals under the General Mills name,
including Cheerios, Wheaties, Chex, Lucky Charms,
Trix, Cocoa Puffs and Count Chocula and the other
monster cereals.
3
The company price trend changes
as per the last 5 financial year
comparing with the S&P 500 Index
prices.
2. ANALYST RATING
At the time of Writing, General Mills Inc Traded at Prive value of $ 67. The
forecasted intrinsic Value or Enterprise Value Ranges from $66 - $131 per Share,
Which implies that there is a potential raise in the value during the long term and
due to certain variation during resent year the exit multiple is less than current
price. There is a expected upside of 53.43%. For this reason, I have issued
“BUY” rating for GIS. General Mills is working on their strength in the retail
market and bringing innovation in the pet section and having a constant growth
in the revenue which is the strong reasons for the rating.
Source: https://tinyurl.com/u94697tf
4
3. ANALYST SUGGESTIONS:
• The company is having a compounded annual growth rates of 3.97% as per
the consenses report from market screener compared with the forecasted
results upto 2026.
• The sales value of the company is having a growth in a constant rate but in
a smaller amount.
• Due to some certain reasons the previous Market trends of the company is
falling but the company is having the potential of growth in the future
period.
• The company has announced the innovation in the product and the pet
section which is increasing the sales in that section.
4.BUSINESS SEGMENTS:
General Mills Inc is currently working with the only one distinct ways,
i. North America Retail Segment
ii. International Segment
iii. Pet Segment
iv. North America Foodservice Segment
International Segment
International operating segment reflects retail and foodservice businesses outside of the United
States and Canada.
Pet Segment
Pet operating segment includes pet food products sold primarily in the United States and
Canada in national pet superstore chains, e-commerce retailers, grocery stores, regional pet
store chains, mass merchandisers, and veterinary clinics and hospitals
5
5.REVENUE CLASSIFICATION FOR PAST 3
YEAR:
The company main revenue is the north
American retail market where they
introduce many of there product in the retail
market which gives them with major
revenue.
In the year 2021 the segments are having a
growth rate of compared to 2020
North American retail:2%
Convenience stores & Foodservice: -4%
International segment: 9%
Pet: 2%
In the year 2022 the segments are having a
growth rate of compared to 2021
North American retail: 5%
Convenience stores & Foodservice: 6%
International segment: -9%
Pet: 30%
For this data we can see that the company is
having a drastic changes in the segment the
companies revenue from international segment
is reduced and eventually the pet segment is seen
with the increase in count.
In the year 2023 the segments are having a
growth rate of compared to 2022
North American retail: 9%
Convenience stores & Foodservice: 19%
International segment: -16%
Pet: 9%
By this I can say that the company is having
there operation in a profitable way and
looking for growth in long term and have a
positive organic growth for forecasting year.
6
6. EARNING PER SHARE
Diluted EPS
5.00
As the net profit attributable to the share is
4.00
increasing in a constant rate year by year,
3.00
we can notice in the graph the constant rate
2.00
of rise in the Earning Per Share after
1.00
Dilution which has a constant return.
-
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
8. EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW:
We work continuously to improve our core products and to create new products
that meet consumers’ evolving needs and preferences. In addition, we build the
equity of our brands over time with strong consumer-directed marketing,
innovative new products, and effective merchandising. We believe our brand-
building approach is the key to winning and sustaining leading share positions in
markets around the globe.
Our fundamental financial goal is to generate competitively differentiated returns
for our shareholders over the long term. We believe achieving that goal requires
us to generate a consistent balance of net sales growth, margin expansion, cash
conversion, and cash return to shareholders over time.
We are executing our Accelerate strategy to drive sustainable, profitable growth
and top-tier shareholder returns over the long term. The strategy focuses on four
pillars to create competitive advantages and win:
Boldly building brands, Relentlessly innovating, Unleashing our scale, and
Being a force for good.
7
8. BUSINESS STRATEGY:
Our fundamental financial goal is to generate competitively differentiated returns
for our shareholders over the long term. We believe achieving that goal requires
us to generate a consistent balance of net sales growth, margin expansion, cash
conversion, and cash return to shareholders over time. Our long-term growth
objectives are to deliver the following performance on average over time:
• 2 to 3 percent annual growth in organic net sales;
• mid-single-digit annual growth in adjusted operating profit;
• mid- to high-single-digit annual growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share
(EPS);
• free cash flow conversion of at least 95 percent of adjusted net earnings after
tax
• cash return to shareholders of 80 to 90 percent of free cash flow, including an
attractive dividend yield.
9. BUSINESS RISK:
Business and Industry Risks
• The categories in which we participate are very competitive, and if we are
not able to compete effectively, our results of operations could be adversely
affected.
• We may be unable to maintain our profit margins in the face of a
consolidating retail environment.
• Price changes for the commodities we depend on for raw materials,
packaging, and energy may adversely affect our profitability.
• unable to anticipate changes in consumer preferences and trends, which
may result in decreased demand for our products.
Operating Risks
• If we are not efficient in our production, our profitability could suffer as a
result of the highly competitive environment in which we operate.
• Disruption of our supply chain could adversely affect our business.
• Business operations could be disrupted if our information technology
systems fail to perform adequately or are breached.
• Failure to successfully integrate acquisitions into our existing operations
could adversely affect our financial results.
8
Legal and Regulatory Risk
• Products become adulterated, misbranded, or mislabeled, we might need
to recall those items and may experience product liability claims if
consumers or their pets are injured.
• New regulations or regulatory-based claims could adversely affect our
business.
• Climate change and other sustainability matters could adversely affect our
business.
9
• International Operations: Expanding globally allows them to tap into
diverse markets.
• Foodservice and Commercial Sales: Supplying food to restaurants,
schools, and institutions.
• Licensing and Joint Ventures: Collaborations and licensing agreements.
• E-commerce and Direct-to-Consumer Sales: Capitalizing on online
platforms.
STRENGHTS WEAKNESS
OPPURTUNITIES THREATS
- Diversifying product lines (e.g., - Market Competiton and external
plant-based, organic, functional factor.
foods).
10
12. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:
• Revenue growth: Revenue
The revenue has been constantly 20,500.00
increasing, with 4.77% growth 20,000.00
USD in Millions
rates of from 2021 to 2022 and 19,500.00
19,000.00
5.80% from 2022 to 2023. 18,500.00
18,000.00
17,500.00
This indicates a positive trend in
17,000.00
revenue generation over upcoming 2021 2022 2023
year. Revenue 18,127.00 18,992.80 20,094.20
3400
The operating profit margin of 17% in 3200
2023 reflects that the company is 3000
efficient enough in managing 2800
operating expenses relative to 2600
2021 2022 2023
revenue. operating profit 2972.1 3499 3372.8
2,600.00 in 2023.
2,500.00
2,400.00 The net income has also shown
2,300.00 growth over the years, from $2378
2,200.00
2021 2022 2023
million in 2021 to $2601 million
net profit 2,378.20 2,441.40 2,601.20 2023.
Which shows that the company’s net profit id increasing year by year but at a
minimal rate hence there is comparatively less risk.
11
Return on capital employed ROCE
(ROCE): 33%
The table is showing a drastic downward 32%
shift from 2022 to 2023 which means the 32%
company is efficiently using its capital 31%
resources to generate returns hence it may 31%
2021 2022 2023
create a negative sign. ROCE 32% 32% 31%
13. VALUATION’S:
Enterprise Value:
The discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis yields an enterprise value of $89,122
million for operating business, representing the present value of expected future
cash flows.
Non-Operating Assets:
Non-operating assets, totalling $1,184 million, are added to the enterprise value
to account for assets that are not directly related to the core operating business.
12
Terminal value Gordon
Total Value of the Firm: growth
Long Term Growth Rate 2.0%
The total value of the firm, including
Terminal Value 93,514
both the operating business and non- Present Value of TV 76,295
operating assets, is estimated at $ DCF Value of Firm / Operating Business Enterprise Value 87,938
89,122 million. Add: Non Operating Assets 1,184
Debt and Cash: Total Value of Firm 89,122
Less: Gross Debt & Debt Equivalents 12,651
Gross debt and debt equivalents of Add: Cash 594
$12,651 million are subtracted from Less: Non Controling Interest 253
the total firm value, while cash DCF value of Common Equity 76,812
holdings of $ 594 million are added No. of shares o/s 587
back. This adjustment accounts for DCF value per share 131
the company's financial obligations
and available cash resources.
Minority Interest:
The value of the non-controlling Terminal Value Exit Multiple Method
interest that the company has in the LTM EV/EBITDA 9.4
books of account is $253 million. Terminal Year EBITDA 4,981
Terminal Value 47,042
Equity Value:
Present Value of TV 38,380
The DCF analysis results in a DCF Value of Firm / Operating Business Enterprise Value 50,023
common equity value of $ 76,812 Add: Non Operating Assets 1,184
million, representing the estimated Total Value of Firm 51,206
value attributable to common Less: Gross Debt & Debt Equivalents 12,651
shareholders. Add: Cash 594
Less: Non Controling Interest 253
Share Count: DCF value of Common Equity 38,896
No. of shares o/s-Diluted 587
With a total of 587 million shares
DCF value per share 66
outstanding, the DCF-derived value
per share for GIS is $ 131.
13
General Mills Inc WACC Calculation
(in USD million except per Share Data) ➢ WACC Sensitivity:
The sensitivity analysis below
Bottoms Up explores various WACC scenarios
1 beta
Cost of equity
ranging from 4% to 6%. This analysis
Particulars Notes Value allows for a comprehensive
Risk-free rate (%) 4.06% assessment of how changes in the
Beta 0.36 discount rate impact the valuation of
Equity market risk premium (%) 4.6% the company.
Cost of equity capital (%) 5.7%
➢ LTGR Scenarios:
Cost of debt Multiple LTGR scenarios are
Particulars Notes Value considered, ranging from 1% to 3%.
Debt borrowing rate (%) 5.5% These scenarios reflect different long-
Expected income tax rate (%) 27.0% term growth expectations for the
After-tax cost of debt (%) 4.0% company's cash flows.
2.00% 229.0 201.7 179.9 162.0 147.1 134.5 123.7 114.4 106.2
2.25% 262.1 227.3 200.2 178.5 160.8 146.0 133.5 122.8 113.5 Average Cost of Capital) and LTGR
2.50% 306.3 260.2 225.6 198.7 177.2 159.6 144.9 132.5 121.9
2.75% 368.2 304.1 258.3 224.0 197.3 175.9 158.4 143.9 131.5
(Long-Term Growth Rate) can have
3.00% 461.0 365.5 301.9 256.4 222.3 195.8 174.6 157.2 142.8 a notable impact on the projected
share value. Elevated WACC or
WACC
66 4.0% 4.25% 4.50% 4.75% 5.00% 5.25% 5.50% 5.75% 6.00%
diminished LTGR may heighten the
7.0x 52.3 51.8 51.2 50.6 50.0 49.5 48.9 48.4 47.9 perceived investment risk.
7.5x 56.0 55.4 54.7 54.1 53.5 53.0 52.4 51.8 51.2
8.0x 59.6 59.0 58.3 57.7 57.0 56.4 55.8 55.2 54.6 ➢ Investment Decision:
Exit Multiple
8.5x 63.2 62.6 61.9 61.2 60.6 59.9 59.2 58.6 58.0
9.0x 66.9 66.2 65.4 64.7 64.1 63.4 62.7 62.0 61.4 It is advisable for investors to
9.5x 70.5 69.8 69.0 68.3 67.6 66.8 66.1 65.4 64.7
10.0x 74.1 73.4 72.6 71.8 71.1 70.3 69.6 68.8 68.1
thoroughly evaluate their risk
10.5x 77.8 77.0 76.2 75.4 74.6 73.8 73.0 72.2 71.5 tolerance and market outlooks while
11.0x 81.4 80.6 79.7 78.9 78.1 77.2 76.4 75.6 74.9
considering this sensitivity analysis
14
14. TRADING COMPRABLES:
Comparable company analysis is that similar companies provide an informative
point of reference that can be used to derive an estimated valuation of the target
company.
Some of the peer companies of General Mills Inc are, Kraft Heinz, Kellenova,
Conagra Brands, Mondelez, Hershey, Campbell Soup.
15
15. APPENDIX:
➢ INCOME STATEMENT:
Net Operating Revenues - Reported 16,865.20 17,626.60 18,127.00 18,992.80 20,094.20 10,044.10 10273 20,317.02 21,415.32 22,582.28 23,822.92 25,142.66
Other Items 342.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Operating Revenues - Normalised 17,207.30 17,626.60 18,127.00 18,992.80 20,094.20 10,044.10 10,272.92 20,317.02 21,415.32 22,582.28 23,822.92 25,142.66
Cost of Goods & Services Sold - Reported 11108.4 11496.7 11678.7 12590.6 13548.4 6507.7
Impact of Special Items 285 50.2 172.7 -23.2 61 0
Cost of Goods and Services Sold - Normalised 11393.4 11546.9 11851.4 12567.4 13609.4 6507.7 6,600.27 13,107.97 14,176.18 14,948.67 15,769.93 16,643.55
Cost of Goods and Services Sold (Other than Dep.) 10983.4 11195.6 11551 12123.3 13193.9 6246.2 6,388.50 12,634.70 13,729.75 14,477.91 15,273.31 16,119.42
Depreciation 410 351.3 300.4 444.1 415.5 261.5 211.8 473.3 446.43 470.75 496.62 524.13
Gross Profit - Normalised 5,813.90 6,079.70 6,275.60 6,425.40 6,484.80 3,536.40 3,672.66 7,209.06 7,239.14 7,633.61 8,052.99 8,499.11
Selling, General and Administrative Expense - Reported 2935.8 3151.6 3079.6 3147 3500.4 1669.8
Impact of Special Items 0 0 0 0 0 0
Selling, General and Administrative Expense - Normalised 2935.8 3151.6 3079.6 3147 3500.4 1669.8 1,783.75 3453.5 3,495.65 3,665.69 3,853.15 4,057.13
Selling, General & Admin Exp. (Excluding Amortisation Exp) 2,725.70 2,908.20 2,778.70 3,020.80 3,369.30 1,665.50 1,703.44 3368.9 3,441.05 3,628.56 3,827.91 4,039.97
Corporate Dep. - - - - - -
Amortisation 210.1 243.4 300.9 126.2 131.1 4.3 80.3 84.6 54.6 37.1 25.2 17.2
Operating Income - Normalised 2,573.0 2,903.7 2,972.1 3,499.0 3,372.8 1,741.8 1,761.27 3503.1 3,741.25 3,965.57 4,197.35 4,439.35
Benefits plan non -service income 87.9 112.8 132.9 113.4 88.4 37.1
Impact of Special Items 285.00 154.30 181 -285.7 84.9 146.7
other Income 372.90 267.1 313.9 -172.3 173.3 183.8 0 183.8 0 0 0 0
Interest ,net 521.8 466.5 420.3 379.6 382.1 234.8 348.9 583.7 301.7 279.7 233.3 200.8
EBT- Normalised 2,424.10 2,704.30 2,865.70 2,947.10 3,164.00 1,690.80 1,412.40 3,103.20 3,439.51 3,685.90 3,964.02 4,238.54
After tax Earnings from joint ventures 72 91.1 117.7 111.7 81.3 47.7 0 47.7 0
Net Income-Normalised 1,968.50 2,236.90 2,378.20 2,441.40 2,601.20 1,384.30 1,116.52 2,500.82 2,666.43 2,801.87 2,953.51 3,094.14
Net Income attributable to shareholders of General Mills 1,935.00 2,207.30 2,372.00 2,413.70 2,585.50 1,370.70 1,105.55 2,476.25 2,639.64 2,773.71 2,923.83 3,063.05
Average Shares Outstanding( Assuming Dilution) 605.4 613.3 619.1 612.6 601.2 587.4 587.4 587.4 587.4 587.4 587.4 587.4
Diluted EPS 3.20 3.60 3.83 3.94 4.30 2.33 1.88 4.22 4.49 4.72 4.98 5.21
Average Share Outstanding 600.4 608.1 614.1 607.5 594.8 583.2 583.2 583.2 583.2 583.2 583.2 583.2
Basic EPS 3.22 3.63 3.86 3.97 4.35 2.35 1.90 4.25 4.53 4.76 5.01 5.25
16
➢ BALANCE SHEET:
Total asset 30111.2 30806.7 31841.9 31090.1 31451.7 31233.4 32828.3 33777.1 33815.5 34450.4 34957.1
Total current liabilities 7087.1 7491.5 8265.8 8019.9 7535.7 7902.2 6,556.7 7,766.5 7,491.6 7,952.5 6,807.8
Total liabilities 22191.8 21912.6 21463.8 20302.1 20751.7 21601.5 23359.5 22965.7 21592.8 20740.1 19687.4
Total equity 7367.7 8349.5 9773.2 10788 10700 9631.9 9468.82 10811.45 12222.65 13710.31 15269.72
Total liabilities and equity 30111.2 30806.7 31841.9 31090.1 31451.7 31233.4 32,828.29 33,777.14 33,815.48 34,450.41 34,957.13
Check - - - - - - - - - - -
Source 10K may 2020 Pg:58 10K may 2022 Pg:45 10K May 23 10Q Nov23 Pg11 Calculation
17
➢ CASH FLOW STATEMENT:
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities 3,209.46 3,377.51 3,469.09 3,643.81 3,813.58
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities -723.27 -449.18 -698.69 -738.94 -781.90
Net Cash Provided by/(Used for) Financing Activities -1370.9 -2228.6 -3180.7 -2761.1 -3057.1
Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents 1,115.28 699.76 -410.30 143.75 -25.46
Cash and Cash Equivalents, Beginning of Year 593.8 1,709.08 2,408.84 1,998.54 2,142.29
Cash and Cash Equivalents, End of Period 1,709.08 2,408.84 1,998.54 2,142.29 2,116.83
Source Calculation
18
➢ DISCOUNTING CASH FLOW:
93,514.41
Terminal value Gordon WACC
growth
Long Term Growth Rate 2.0%
131 4.0% 4.25% 4.50% 4.75% 5.00% 5.25% 5.50% 5.75% 6.00%
Terminal Value 93,514
Present Value of TV 76,295 1.00% 151.6 138.7 127.6 117.9 109.5 102.1 95.5 89.6 84.3
DCF Value of Firm / Operating Business Enterprise Value 87,938 1.25% 165.7 150.5 137.6 126.6 117.0 108.7 101.3 94.7 88.9
Add: Non Operating Assets 1,184 1.50% 182.6 164.5 149.4 136.6 125.6 116.2 107.8 100.5 94.0
Total Value of Firm 89,122 1.75% 203.2 181.2 163.2 148.2 135.6 124.7 115.3 107.0 99.7
Less: Gross Debt & Debt Equiv alents 12,651
LTGR
2.00% 229.0 201.7 179.9 162.0 147.1 134.5 123.7 114.4 106.2
Add: Cash 594
Less: Non Controling Interest 253 2.25% 262.1 227.3 200.2 178.5 160.8 146.0 133.5 122.8 113.5
DCF value of Common Equity 76,812 2.50% 306.3 260.2 225.6 198.7 177.2 159.6 144.9 132.5 121.9
No. of shares o/s 587 2.75% 368.2 304.1 258.3 224.0 197.3 175.9 158.4 143.9 131.5
DCF value per share 131 3.00% 461.0 365.5 301.9 256.4 222.3 195.8 174.6 157.2 142.8
19
➢ TRADING COMPARABLE ANALYSIS:
Industry Multiple Range Implied EV-GeneralMills Debt Cash & Cash Implied Equity-GeneralMills Diluted Implied Per Share Value-GeneralMills
Metrics Lower Higher Lower Higher Minority Interest Total Debt Equivalent Eq Investments Lower Higher Shares O/S Lower Higher
10% 10%
LTM EV/EBITDA 4,004 10.08x 12.32x 40,347 49,313 253 12650.7 656.6 593.8 0 27,381 36,347 592 46.2 61.4
FY1 EV/EBITDA 4,153 9.97x 12.19x 41,418 50,622 253 12650.7 656.6 593.8 0 28,451 37,655 592 48.0 63.6
FY2 EV/EBITDA 4,266 9.59x 11.72x 40,921 50,015 253 12650.7 656.6 593.8 0 27,954 37,048 592 47.2 62.6
Industry Multiple Range Implied EV-GeneralMills Debt Cash & Cash Implied Equity-GeneralMills Diluted Implied Per Share Value-GeneralMills
Metrics Lower Higher Lower Higher Minority Interest Total Debt Equivalent Eq Investments Lower Higher Shares O/S Lower Higher
10% 10%
LTM EV/EBIT 3,457 12.6x 15.4x 43,475 53,136 253 12650.7 656.6 593.8 0 30,509 40,170 592 51.5 67.8
FY1 EV/EBIT 3,586 12.2x 14.9x 43,819 53,556 253 12650.7 656.6 593.8 0 30,852 40,590 592 52.1 68.5
FY2 EV/EBIT 3,654 11.5x 14.0x 41,957 51,281 253 12650.7 656.6 593.8 0 28,991 38,315 592 49.0 64.7
Industry Multiple Range Implied EV-GeneralMills Debt Cash & Cash Implied Equity-GeneralMills Diluted Implied Per Share Value-GeneralMills
Metrics Lower Higher Lower Higher Minority Interest Total Debt Equivalent Eq Investments Lower Higher Shares O/S Lower Higher
10% 10%
LTM EV/Sales 20,094 2.0x 2.4x 39,890.32 48,754.83 253 12650.7 656.6 593.8 0 26,924 35,788 592 45.5 60.4
FY1 EV/Sales 20,021 2.0x 2.5x 40,761.59 49,819.72 253 12650.7 656.6 593.8 0 27,795 36,853 592 46.9 62.2
FY2 EV/Sales 20,319 2.0x 2.4x 40,374.73 49,346.89 253 12650.7 656.6 593.8 0 27,408 36,380 592 46.3 61.4
20