High Female Literacy, Low Child Population: Is There a Threshold Effect?

Author(s): Satish B. Agnihotri

Source: Economic and Political Weekly , Sep. 28 - Oct. 4, 2002, Vol. 37, No. 39 (Sep. 28 -
Oct. 4, 2002), pp. 4054-4059
Published by: Economic and Political Weekly

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 High Female Literacy, Low
Child Population
Is There a Threshold Effect?
This paper examines the relationship between rural female literacy and the size of
the child population (0-6 years) using block level data from the, population census of 1991
for West Bengal. Its purpose is to find out if there is any threshold level of female
literacy associated with a rapid decline in the size of the under-6 population. The analysis is
done separately for three social groups; the tribals, the scheduled castes and the rest or
the 'general' population. The results have an important bearing on policy while processes
behind these are of considerable significance to researchers. Further validation of these
patterns using 2001 Census data and similar analysis for states is indicated.

SATISH B AGNIHOTRI

It was felt that the search for a thresholdIt was therefore decided to analyse the
block level data of the 1991 Census for
effect needs 'fine tuning' of both the unit
I^T"he primary motivation for this analy- of analysis and the composition of popu- rural West Bengal and see if any threshold
sis came from a report prepared by lation. Districts in India are often large effect was discernible. The results are
the IIM Kolkata on primary educa- sized and hide considerable variation within described in the next section.
tion in the state of West Bengal. The draft their boundaries. As such the data at dis-
report highlights, among other aspects, the trict level may be too aggregated to reveal II
existence of a strong negative correlation such 'threshold' effect. Second, the dy-
between rural female literacy and the size of namics behind such social effects may During the 1991 population census, West
the under-6 population at the sub-district differ from one social group to another.Bengal had 337 community development
and even at the village level. The findings The 'critical mass' of literate females that blocks in 17 districts. Primary Census
are important no doubt. Yet, from a policy may be needed to accelerate a decline inAbstracts (PCA) data for these blocks in
perspective, these leave some interesting fertility or child mortality or improvingrespect of the total population, the SC
issues unanswered. Is the relationship lin- access to health care system or modernpopulation and the tribal population were
ear or non-linear? Are there early gains that methods of contraception may differ amongcollected from the Regional Census Direc-
taper off later? Or are the gains sluggish communities. Hence, it is useful to looktorate. These abstracts contain informa-
to begin with and pick up after a 'critical for such an effect at sub-district level and tion on the total male and the female
mass' is attained? Do diminishing returns separately so for three social groups, i e, thepopulation in the community development
set in and if so at what level? These tribals, the scheduled castes and the rest(CD) block, the male and female popula-
or the 'general' category of the population. tion in the 0-6 years age group and the
questions are critical to policy formulation
and design of intervention strategies.The usefulness of separate analysis ofliterate male and female population. Using
The positive effects of female literacysocial indicators among the three social these, the proportion of the U-6 population
on fertility, child mortality and, conse-groups is amply demonstrated in my analy-in the total population and the literacy rates
quently, on small family norm, hassis been
of the sex ratio patterns in the countryamong females in the age group of seven
discussed in the received literature. We [Agnihotri 1996, 2000]. However, data on years and above were calculated for the
many items like fertility rates or even childthree social groups separately.
have on the authority of Mari Bhat (2000),
that the association between female mortality levels are not available for these Figures la to Ic give the distribution of
literacy and female fertility is one of thegroups at district level nor are thesethe proportion of the under-6 population
social
most widely discussed topics. However,available at sub-district level even for the (Pct06) among the three social groups.
the idea of threshold levels of femaleoverall population. Figures 2a to 2c provide this information
On the other hand, disaggregated data
literacy rates beyond which rapid decline in respect of rural female literacy rates
in female fertility sets in, has not found
on the age group composition of popula- (Rflr). For the ST population, blocks with
tionof
much favour. Based on an analysis are available at sub-district levels for less than 500 ST male children have been
district level data Visaria and Visaria social groups thanks to the census data. excluded.
(1994) and James (1999) even rule The outsize of the under-6 population, i e, 0-6 The distribution of both child popula-
the existence of such a threshold effect. popualtion as a percentage of the overall tion size (Pct06) and the rural female
Why another attempt then, to look for apopulation, is a good surrogate for the literacy rates (Rflr) differ significantly
'threshold level'? acceptance of the small population norm. among the three social groups. The mean

4054 Economic and Political Weekly September 28, 2002

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 Figure 1: Percentage of 0-6 Age Group to Total Population: Figure 2: Female Literacy Ra
Rural West Bengal - Block Level Data 1991 Level Data 1991
a: Non-SC/ST Population a: Non-SC/ST Population
60 60-

50 ' Std Dev = 2.81 50 * Std Dev = 16.06

Mean = 46
a;-.<: : ,' Mean = 18
40- N = 331.00 40 N =334.00

30o 30

10 ; ' ' , .;i*, ,-^ . .; ': ' ';?, : - E ~.. h- * V

20'

10.
0

11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Rural
Percentage of U-6 Population (General) Female Literacy (Gen

b Scheduled Castes
b SC Population
1001 70

Std Dev = 1.63

40i * f Mean = 19 "lllll', Std Dev = 11.83
60
40

40 \ 30

20

10

0
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

~ ~6500-: .a_'~ ;~.,[:~^~W.~~StMeaN=d De161.nv =13= 0100.06

Percentage of U-6 Population (SC) Rural Female Literacy (SC

c .Scheduled Tribe c 'ST Population

50 70

Std Dev = 1.68

40 Mean = 20
N= 161.00
30.. 40

30

20 .|_
10
10

0
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Rural
Percentage of U-6 Population (ST) Female Literacy (ST)

value of Pct06 spreads for over a wider range.

the generalThis popula-Thepopulation
spatial distribution of the two vari-
is 18 per cent in tion appears
a block to be less homogeneous
(six outliersables provides certain striking
have patterns.
been excluded),compared while to the SCit is
and the 19 per Figures 5a and
ST population. 5b provides blockwise
cent and maps
20 per cent for Lower
the literacySC
rates among
and the tribal
theof literacyST popu-
rates and the size of the under-
lation. Paired t-test indicated that Pct06 females are strikingly apparent. The mean 6 population among scheduled castes. The
differs significantly between the general literacy rates are 13 per cent with a stan-
congruence between the two maps is quite
and the SC categories (t = 6.9) and betweendard deviation of about 10 per cent. Amongclear. Low levels of female literacy and
general and the ST category (t = 8.9) at the scheduled castes, the literacy rates are
higher size of the under-6 population seem
1 per cent level. Between the SC and the higher, the mean being 26 per cent with to go hand in hand. The converse also
a standard deviation of about 12 per cent.
ST population this difference is significant holds except in certain pockets in the
at 5 per cent level (t = 1.87). The distri-It is among the general category that the south-wester part.
bution of PctO6 is quite close to a normal rates are the highest with the mean beingThe maps for the general category of the
distribution among the SC and ST popu- population, Figures 3a and 3b show simi-
46 per cent. The standard deviation is once
lation and has low standard deviation of again high, 16 per cent. The shape of the lar congruence. Once again a strong nega-
1.63 and 1.68 per cent. For the 'general' distribution again suggests less homoge- tive correlation between female literacy
category the standard deviation is rather neity compared to the SC and the ST rates and the size of the under-6 population
large, (2.81 per cent) and the distributionpopulation. is brought out. Among tribals however,

Economic and Political Weekly September 28, 2002 4055

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 Figure 3a: Percentage of under-6 Population (General) Figure 3b: Rural Female Literacy Rate (General)
West Bengal - 1991 West Bengal - 1991

[I Less than 15.00 per cent Less than 46.00 per cent

-~ 15.01-17.00 per cent

I 46.01-60.00 per cent

_I Above 17.00 per cent E Above 60.00 per cent

mI INo Data No Data

Figure 4a: Percentage of under-6 Figure

Population (ST)
4b: Rural Female Literacy Rate (ST)
West Bengal - 1991 West Bengal - 1991

E Less than 19.00 per cent

Less than 8.00 per cent

N 19.01-22.00 percent
i 8.01-20.00 per cent
Above 22.00 per cent
Above 20.00 per cent

I No Data or Pop <5000

I No Data or Prop<5000

Figure 5a: Percentage of under-6 Population (SC) Figure 5B: Rural Female Literacy Rate (SC)
West Bengal - 1991 West Bengal - 1991

[ Less than 18.29 per cent Less than 21.00 per cent

L/;~ ~18.29-19.80 per cent 21.00-32.00 per cent

II Above 19'.80 per cent W Above 32.00 per cent

IZ INo Data [ No Data

4056 Economic and Political Weekly September 28, 2002

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such clear correlation is not seen (Figures 4a Figure 6:
(a) Rural Female Literacy (General): West Bengal 1991
and 4b). Lower size of the under-6 popu-
26
lation can be noticed even in pockets of m 0
low literacy. 00 0

The strong negative correlation between 24 0 "

the two variables was checked further
through a scatter diagram. Figure 6b gives 0 0

the scatter for the SC population. A locally

weighted sum of squares (LOWESS) curve o
Co
0
0 EC B
0--
drawn provide a clear evidence of a 'thresh-
old effect'. The size of the under-6 popu- o 0 ?
lation is lesser in the blocks with higher
CY 03? * 0 0 ; 00 -'C
female literacy no doubt, but the effect is
oD 18 0o a 0
pronounced once a level of about 30 per
cent literacy rate is crossed. A similar effect 2-
? Da-0
14 "' "
-L--- _0i "ff
-" ,r
r' , a a
can be seen for the 'general' category of MO 00
1 0
the population (Figure 6a). The threshold
literacy level is once again around 30 per
cent. But one can also notice a plateau
between the literacy level of 50 per cent
to 60 per cent after which there is another
zone of significantly lower size of under-6 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
population (less than 16 per cent).
The reason why a clear-cut pattern does 26 ____ (b) Rural Fem
not emerge among the tribals (Figure 6c)
is not far to seek. In most of the blocks,
24
the tribal female literacy rates are well

,. 0.?? ,
below the 30 per cent level. In a few blocks
where the rates are high, the size of the
under-6 population is low. But this num- 10 ^0 30 40 50 0 0 0 8
ber is too small to draw any definite 0 o2 oD o o a_
conclusions. o. 20 e, ??3-o -i- ,____
24 ,,B_h' BE -j08 m o
'0 2 0 30 4+0 50 6l0 7( 0
Ill 0 18 o
^ ? o n o "o^ o a
o ? o a 30a

What are the implications of above find-

ings? First, it is clear that there is a thresh- 2 16 -- -0 -? %, ,.- -- --
old effect in the way literacy rates affects
the child population size. It is also clear c
aQ
that such effect can be discerned by look-
ing at the sub-district data be it at the level
of the CD block, the tehsil or the thana.
v 1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Further, this effect could differ between
different social groups. As such, it is (c) Rural Female Literacy
C 2o
necessary to disaggregate the data appro-
priately. That the threshold levels of fe-
male literacy rate are quite similar among 24

the scheduled castes and the general cate-

gory, could well be fortuitous. It is neces-
sary to examine if this pattern holds in
other states as well. o o

The implications of above findings for

the policy are obvious. It shows that the
adoption of small family norm need not 0 18 20 3
be 'scalpel driven' alone. Blackboard can
be an equally effective tool for this pur-
pose. This can bring the health and family
welfare sector and the mass education sector 0 10 m 20 30 4 50 60 70 80
together to create a synergy. The National
Literacy Mission may find these results
useful for advocacy purposes and can

Economic and Political Weekly September 28, 2002 4057

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 Figure 7: Female Literacy - Child Population Size: West Bengal 2001
(Block Level Data Excluding Certain Outliers with 06 Pct>22 Per Cent
(a) Rural Female Literacy 2001 (b) Rural Female Literacy 2001 (Midnapore excluded)
22 0 22 -
o o x x

20,
20 a %0
o0200
20 x x
x x

E: 18 18 x
o ?a o X , x-
U.
16'. o1
o.2~
- 4*
0x o o
<X16
ao
_- 10
a
o
d o
X.
x
xo 0
xxx 1
<x x
x <

1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 x
10, 0 ?o ,

18 0C 8

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Figure 8: J and K, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Val

(a) Female Literacy (Rural) (b) Female Literacy Rate

J)15 2 . + ++ 152.
~ 20 J ~i~L~~d;~th ,,~t~LS1+ i ~+

o - - .+ +

0 ++ ++i+on
. + - + --+'

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

perhaps support can be offered level

block for this. First, that the lit-
literacy have a bearing
cam- on the lower size of the
paigns. Identification of
eracy figures may the
have been threshold
inflated child population. An increase in female
in the
levels allows a more efficient use of the wake of the literacy campaign undertaken literacy may contribute to this by way of
available resources. The benefits of cros- in the district in late 1980s. Less charita-
a better access to the health care system.
bly, one could expect a 'time lag' between But one has to await the results of the 2001
sing the first threshold are clear and need
to get first priority when it comes to the spread of literacy and its effect on the Census to opine further on this.
spreading female literacy. It will makeunder-6 population. Disaggregated data The threshold levels discussed above,
sound socio-economic sense to step upfrom 2001 Census may throw more light should not be confused with the threshold
on this issue.
efforts of spreading literacy in the blocks in terms of an individual's educational
below the threshold level. Funds under The relatively lower size of the childlevel. Mari Bhat (2000) has dealt with the
tribal sub-plan and special component plan
population among tribals given abysmallyquestion of a threshold effect in terms of
could be earmarked for.this purpose lowfor female literacy level, suggests thatyears of schooling completed by the mother
the ST and the SC population. and has concluded that there is no such
female literacy may not be a proximate
variable in influencing the size of the childaffect. The threshold level discussed here
It is necessary to flag a couple of issues
here. The scatter diagrams exclude population. It may actually be creating ais in terms of a 'critical mass' of literate
Midnapore district as an outlier. The situation conducive to providing morefemales at the community level. When this
reported literacy levels for Midnapore were
space to women in terms of autonomy incritical mass is reached the child popula-
quite high during the 1991 Census. The personal decision-making, information and tion size does show a fast decline. The
size of the under-6 population was not access to health care system. Among tribals,dynamics of this process is related to
correspondingly low in different blockswomen
of certainly enjoy more freedom indiffusion of a new idea. Elaborating this
the district. Two plausible explanations
personal decision-making and this mayis beyond the scope of the present analysis.

4058 Economic and Political Weekly September 28, 2002

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However, one could roughly trace three cates a continuous decline in child Note
elements in the process. First, there is a population size as the female literacy levels
shift in attitude at the individual level from go up. [While UNICEF has supported the analysis
a fate-oriented one-to-one with an element The 2001 district level data on an all- initiative, views are authors own.]

of choice in fertility related matters. To India basis corroborates this pattern fur- 1 I am thankful to Jayant Banthia and Kalpana
sustain this transition, a 'critical mass' of ther in both rural (Figure 8a) and the urbanBardhan for stimulating suggestions on this
literate females in one's 'reference social(Figure 8b) areas although the threshold'process dynamics' and Amiya Bagchi on
group' is needed to endorse such an at- levels are different. In a sense, it indicatessome of the implications of the analysis.
titude. This would then lead to a willing- that the effect is observable even with
ness and better ability to access the healthdistrict level data. References
infrastructure.1 A recent analysis of the The above analysis certainly suggestsAgnihotri, S B (1996): 'Juvenile Sex Ratios in
NFHS-II data by Roy et al (2002) indicates the need for a scrutiny of similar block India- A Disaggregated Analysis', Economic
sharp differences in exposure to media level data from other states. This is cur- and Political Weekly, 31 (52), December 28,
between illiterate and literate women. This 3369-82.
rently in progress. If female literacy rate
may have a bearing on the dynamics thresholds turn out to be quite similar- (2000): Sex Ratio Patterns in the Indian
outlined above. Population -A Fresh Exploration, Sage, New
across different states, it will raise intrigu- Delhi.
One of the nagging doubts I had wasing questions about the dynamics of theBhat, M (2000): 'Returning a Favour: Changing
whether the pattern observed above is aprocess. If the threshold levels differ Relationship between Female Education and
one-off case for West Bengal observablebetween different states and groups then Family Size in India' paper prepared for the
only for 1991 data. Fortunately, the 2001it will provide an important methodologi- workshop on Fertility Change in Developing
block level data reveals similar trend even Countries held at King's Collage, Cambridge,
cal tool for the policy. Further, there is the
UK, May 25-26.
though it relates to the total population issue of the dynamic aspects of the thresh-James, K S (1999): 'Fertility Decline in Andhra
(Figure 7a). Interestingly, the Midnaporeold. Does it move with the general literacy Pradesh: A Search for Alternative Hypo-
puzzle remains. Analysis that includes levels or is independent of these? A trend thesis', Economic and Political Weekly,
February 20-26.
block level data from Midnapore show a analysis based on the 1981, 1991 and 2001
Visaria, P and L Visaria, (1994): 'Demographic
'tapering' effect on the child population data may provide rich insights to scholars
Transition: Acclerating Fertility Decline in the
size at higher literacy levels (Figure 7b) interested in seeking answers to these 1980s', Economic and Political Weekly, 24(51
whereas exclusion of Midnapore indi- questions. lI and 52), 3281-92.

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