CONFIDENTIAL

INTEC EDUCATION COLLEGE

TRIAL EXAMINATION
0B

ALEVEL GERMAN

EXAMINATION DETAILS TRIAL EXAMINATION

Course code ACST 20
Course name PROBABILITY & STATISTICS 1
Date 5 SEPTEMBER 2023
Time 1:00 PM – 2:15 PM
Total no. of pages (incl. cover sheet) 5

ANSWER SCHEME
 2

1. Jacob has constructed a biased spinner with six sectors labelled 0, 1, 1, 3, 4 and 5. The

probability of the spinner landing on each of the six sectors is shown in the following table.

Number
0 1 1 3 4 5
on sector

Probability 3 3 1 3 1
𝑥
10 20 4 20 20

(a) Find the value of 𝑥. [1]

! ! " ! " & "
𝑥 =1−% + + + + '=1− = B1
"# $# % $# $# "# "#

Jacob is playing a game with his biased spinner. The score for the game is the number

which the spinner lands on after being spun.

(b) Find the probability that Jacob’s score is at least 2. [2]

𝑃(𝑆 ≥ 2) = 𝑃(𝑆 = 3) + 𝑃(𝑆 = 4) + 𝑃(𝑆 = 5)

" ! "
= + + M1
% $# $#
𝟗
= A1
𝟐𝟎
(c) Find the expected value for Jacob’s score in a game. [2]
! ! # !
𝐸 (𝑆) = 1 '"( + 3 '"( + 4 '$%( + 5 '$%( M1

!*
= = 𝟏. 𝟖𝟓 A1
$#
(d) Find the standard deviation of Jacob’s scores. [2]

! ! # !
𝜎 (𝑆) = /1$ '"( + 3$ '"( + 4$ '$%( + 5$ '$%( M1

"$!
= ) = 𝟐. 𝟒𝟖 A1
$#
 3

2. In tests on a new type of light bulb it was found that the time they lasted followed a

normal distribution with standard deviation 41.3 hours. 10% lasted longer than 5240

hours.

(a) Find the mean lifetime of light bulb, giving your answer to the nearest hour. [3]

𝑃(𝐿 ≤ 5240) = 0.9 𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝐿~𝐿𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑛 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠

+$%#,-
𝑃 %𝑍 ≤ ' = 0.9 M1- standardising
%".!
𝑃(𝑍 ≤ 1.282) = 0.9 B1- inverse normal
5240 − 𝜇
= 1.282
41.3
∴ 𝜇 = 5187.05

≈ 𝟓𝟏𝟖𝟕 (𝑛𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟) A1

(b) Find the probability that a light bulb fails to last for 5100 hours. [3]

5100−5187
𝑃(𝐿 < 6000) = 𝑃 P𝑍 < 41.3
Q M1- standardising

= 𝑃(𝑍 < −2.107)

= 1 − Φ(2.107) M1-area using table

= 1 − 0.9824

= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟕𝟔 A1

(c) A warehouse buys 200 of these light bulbs. Using a suitable approximation, find the

probability that fewer than 25 light bulbs will last longer than 5240 hours. [4]
𝑋~ 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑏𝑢𝑙𝑏 𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 5240
𝑋~ 𝐵(200, 0.1) * Both 𝑛𝑝 > 5, 𝑛𝑞 > 5
𝑋~ 𝑁(20, 18) M1- mean & var seen
!".$%!&
𝑃(𝑋 < 25) = 𝑃 P𝑍 < Q M1- continuity correction
√()

= 𝑃(𝑍 < 1.061) M1- standardising

= Φ(1.061)
= 0.8556 A1- accept 0.856
 4

3. The measurements of bee lengths from two distinct countries, labeled as A and B, were taken.

The stem-and-leaf diagram below displays the collected data.

Country A Country B

(10) 9 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 2 76

(18) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 0 77 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 5 5 6 7 8 9 (13)

(16) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 78 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 m 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 (15)

(16) 8 7 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 79 0 1 2 2 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 (17)

(11) 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 80 0 0 1 2 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 (15)

81 1 2 n 3 3 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 (12)

82 0 1 2 2 3 5 5 5 8 9 9 (11)

Key: 5 | 78 | 4 means a bee from Country A has length 0.785 cm

and a bee from Country B has length 0.784 cm.

(a) Find the interquartile range of the lengths of the bees from Country A. [2]

𝐹𝑜𝑟 𝐶𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑦 𝐴: 𝑄( = 18*+ = 0.774

𝑄, = 54*+ = 0.793 M1

∴ 𝐼𝑄𝑅 = 0.793 − 0.774 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟗 A1

(b) The interquartile range of the lengths of the bees from Country B is 0.03 cm. Find the

values of m and n. [2]

𝑚 = 0.783 𝑜𝑟 0.784, 𝑛 = 0.812 𝑜𝑟 0.813

To get 𝐼𝑄𝑅 = 0.03 , ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝒎 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟖𝟑 B1

𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝒏 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟏𝟑 B1
 5

(c) On the same diagram, draw a pair of box-and-whisker plots to represent the data in

Country A and Country B. [4]

Country B

Country A

0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.82

Country A Country B B1 – label & linear scale

Min 0.762 0.771
Q1 0.774 0.783 B1 ft – Median & Quartiles Country A

Median 0.785 0.797 B1 ft – Median & Quartiles Country B

Q3 0.793 0.813
B1- whiskers
Max 0.808 0.829

(d) Compare the lengths of the bees from the two countries. [2]

Overall, Country B has longer bees B1

Country B has larger variation of lengths B1
 3

!
4. In a group of Korean students, are female. The proportion of female students who like
%
! %
their kimchi hot is and the proportion of male students who like their kimchi hot is .
+ +
One student is chosen at random.

(a) Find the probability that the student chosen is either male, or likes their kimchi hot, or

is both female and likes their kimchi hot. [4]

3/5 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝐻′) + 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐻) + 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐻)

1 1 3 3 1 4
3/4 =q × s+ q × s+q × s
4 5 4 5 4 5
2/5
B1 M1 A1

4/5 𝟕
= A1
1/4 𝟏𝟎

1/5

(b) Showing your working, determine whether the events ‘the student chosen is female’

and ‘the student chosen likes their kimchi hot’ are independent. [2]

3 9 1 13
𝑃(𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐻) = + =
4 20 5 20
39
𝑃(𝐹) × 𝑃(𝐻) =
80
M1
9
𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐻) =
20
𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐻) ≠ 𝑃(𝐹) × 𝑃(𝐻)
Hence, not independent. A1
 4

5. Sophie is a birdwatcher. The probability that she will see a woodpecker on any given day is
"
. It is assumed that this probability is unaffected by whether she has seen a woodpecker
"#
on any other day.

(a) Calculate the probability that Sophie first sees a woodpecker on the third day. [3]
𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝑋~ 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑙 𝑆𝑜𝑝ℎ𝑖𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑒 𝑎 𝑤𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑟
1
𝑋~𝐺𝑒𝑜 q s
10
9 ! 1
𝑃(𝑋 = 3) = q s q s = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟖𝟏
10 10
M1 M1 A1

(b) Find the probability that Sophie first sees a woodpecker after the third day. [3]

9 ,
𝑃(𝑋 > 3) = q s = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟐𝟗
10
M1 M1 A1

(c) Find the expectation of the number of days up to and including the first day on which
she sees a woodpecker. [1]

1
𝐸(𝑋) = = 𝟏𝟎
1
10
B1
 5

6. Find the number of ways in which all 9 letters of the word ABUNDANCE can be arranged

in each of the following cases.

(a) All the vowels are together. [3]

(AAUE) * * * *. *

4!
× 6! = 𝟖𝟔𝟒𝟎
2!
M1 M1 A1

(b) The letter N is in the central position and each end position is occupied by one of the

other consonants. [3]

X * * * N * * * X

"
Arrangements of 2 consonants from B, D, N, C = 𝑃! = 12 M1

9!
Arrangements of remaining letters = = 360 M1
$!

Total = 360 × 12 = 𝟒𝟑𝟐𝟎 A1

7. The heights of the 15 students from batch Alevel32 are denoted by 𝑥cm. It is given that

Σ𝑥 = 2623 and Σ 𝑥 ! = 459 751. The Alevel32 are joined by 3 new students from YTN

whose heights are 165 cm, 171 cm and 180 cm.

Find the standard deviation of the heights of all 18 students from batch Alevel32.

[4]
∑ 𝑥 = 2623 + 165 + 171 + 180 = 3139 M1
∑ 𝑥 ! = 459 751 + 165! + 171! + 180! = 548 617 M1
∑ 𝑥 3139
𝜇- = = = 174.39
18 18
∑ 𝑥! 548 617
𝜎- !
= − 𝜇- ! = − 174.39! = 66.85 M1
18 18
𝜎- = 8.18 A1