Midterm Exam

Probability and Statistics, GENG200

Spring 2019

Date Start time Duration No. of pages

Mon. 18th March 2019 9:00 am 80 minutes 9

INSTRUCTIONS
1. All writings must be on this booklet only.

Caution – Candidates guilty of any of the following, or similar, dishonest

practices shall be immediately dismissed from the examination and shall
be liable to disciplinary action: Question Mark
• Making use of any books, papers or memoranda, cell phones,
(1) /4
audio or visual cassette players or other memory aid devices, other
than as authorized by the examiners. (2) /4
• Speaking or communicating with other candidates. (3) /5
• Purposely exposing written papers to the view of other candidates. (4) /6
• The plea of accident or forgetfulness shall not be received. (5) /6
2. Show all your work. Justify your answers. Partial credit is possible for (6) /5
an answer, but only if you show the intermediate steps in obtaining the
/
answer.
/
/

Total / 35

STUDENT NAME :_________________________________

STUDENT ID :_________________________________

Answer All the following questions

Student Name:

Student ID:

Question 1: [6 Marks]
A lot of 50 balls contains 30 red balls, 15 green balls, and 5 blue balls. Suppose that two
balls are selected at random, without replacement, from the lot.

a) What is the probability that both balls are red? [2 Marks]

30 29
𝑃(𝑅$ ∩ 𝑅& ) = 𝑃(𝑅& |𝑅$ )𝑃(𝑅$ ) = ∗
50 49

b) What is the probability that the second ball selected is red if the first selected ball is green? [2
Marks]

If the first selected ball is green, after that, a lot has 49 balls with 30 red balls, 14 green balls, and 5
blue balls.
30
𝑃(𝑅& |𝐺$ ) =
49

c) What is the probability that the second ball selected is blue? [2 Marks]

𝑃(𝐵& ) = 𝑃(𝐵& |𝑅$ )𝑃(𝑅$ ) + 𝑃(𝐵& |𝐵$ )𝑃(𝐵$ ) + 𝑃(𝐵& |𝐺$ )𝑃(𝐺$ )

5 4 5
𝑃(𝐵& |𝑅$ ) = , 𝑃(𝐵& |𝐵$ ) = , 𝑃(𝐵& |𝐺$ ) =
49 49 49

5 30 4 5 5 15 5
𝑃(𝐵& ) = ∗ + ∗ + ∗ =
49 50 49 50 49 50 50

Question 2: [7 Marks]
Errors in an experimental transmission channel are found when the transmission is checked by a
certifier that detects missing pulses. The number of errors found in eight bits byte is a random variable
with the following distribution.

0 𝑥<1
0.6 1 ≤ 𝑥 < 3
𝐹(𝑥) = 9
0.8 3 ≤ 𝑥 < 7
1 7≤𝑥

a) Determine the probability mass function for the above random variable. [1 Mark]

𝑓A (1) = 0.6, 𝑓A (3) = 0.2, 𝑓A (7) = 0.2

b) What is the probability that at least 5 bits are transmitted by error? [1 Mark]

𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 5) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 7) = 0.2

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Student Name:

Student ID:

c) What is the probability that exactly 5 bits are transmitted by error? [1Mark]
𝑃(𝑋 = 5) = 0

d) Determine the mean and the variance of the random variable X. [2 Marks]

𝐸(𝑋) = 1 × 0.6 + 3 × 0.2 + 7 × 0.2 = 2.6

𝐸(𝑋 & ) = 1 × 0.6 + 3& × 0.2 + 7& × 0.2 = 12.2

𝑉(𝑋) = 𝐸(𝑋 & ) − 𝜇& = 12.2 − 2.6& = 5.44

e) Consider the random variable Y=2X+3. Find the mean and variance of the random variable Y
[2 Marks]

𝐸(𝑌) = 2 × 𝐸(𝑋) + 3 = 2 × 2.6 + 3 = 8.2

𝑉(𝑌) = 4 × 𝑉(𝑋) = 4 × 5.44 = 21.76

Question 3: [6 Marks]
Heart failure is due to either natural occurrence (87%) or outside factors (13%). Assume that causes
of heart failure between individuals are independent.

a) Suppose that 20 patients will visit an emergency room with heart failure. What is the probability
that three or more individual have condition caused by outside factor? [2 Marks]

Binomial Distribution: 𝑛 = 20, 𝑝 = 0.13

&
20
𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 3) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 < 3) = 1 − L M N 0.87&OPQ 0.13Q
𝑥
QRO

b) What is the probability that the third patient with heart failure who enters the emergency room the
first one due to outside factors? [2 Marks]
Geometric Distribution: 𝑝 = 0.13
𝑃(𝑌 = 3) = 0.87& × 0.13

c) Suppose that the fifth patient with hearth failure who enter the emergency room is due to natural
occurrence, what is the probability that the sixth patient with hearth failure who enter the
emergency room is due to outside factors? [2 Mark]

Patients are independent. Hence, probability that the sixth patient with hearth failure who enter the
emergency room is due to outside factors is 0.13.

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Student Name:

Student ID:

Question 4: [6 Marks]
Lifetime of a lamp in an overhead projector installed at QU is normally distributed random
variable X with mean of 8000 hours and standard deviation of 500.

(a) What is the probability that an overhead projector fails after 8750 hours?

𝑋 − 8000 8750 − 8000

𝑃(𝑋 > 8750) = 𝑃 T > U = 𝑃(𝑍 > 1.5) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑍 < 1.5) = 0.066807
500 500

(b) What is the lifetime x in hours such that 90% of projectors will exceed that?

𝑥 − 8000
𝑃(𝑋 > 𝑥) = 0.9 → 𝑃(𝑋 < 𝑥) = 0.1 → 𝑃 T𝑍 < U = 0.1
500
𝑥 − 8000
= −1.28 → 𝑥 = 7360
500

(c) Find the lifetime x such that 𝑃(−𝑥 < 𝑋 < 𝑥) = 0.94.

0.06
𝑃(−𝑥 < 𝑋 < 𝑥) = 0.94 → 𝑃(𝑋 < 𝑥) = 0.94 + = 0.97
2
𝑥 − 8000 𝑥 − 8000
𝑃 T𝑍 < U = 0.97 → = 1.89 → 𝑥 = 8945
500 500

Question 5: [5 Marks]
Assume that the flaws along a magnetic tape follow a Poisson distribution with a mean of 0.2
flaw per meter.
a) What is the probability that there are no flaws in 2 meters of a magnetic tape?

𝜆 = 0.2 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟 → 𝜆 = 0.4 𝑝𝑒𝑟 2 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠

𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = 𝑒 PO.^

b) What is the probability that the first flaw occurs between 5 and 10 meters after the start of
the tape?
Exponential with 𝜆 = 0.2 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟
$O
𝑃(5 < 𝑌 < 10) = _ 0.2𝑒 PO.&` 𝑑𝑦 = 𝑒 P$ − 𝑒 P&
c

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Student Name:

Student ID:

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