COUNTRIES & REGIONS

Recession risk in the largest

economies globally
 Are we on the brink of a global recession?
Key questions answered in this report
1 2
What is causing the current
economic slowdown?
• Inflation in Russia increased to 6.7
percent in October 2023 after
decreasing in the previous months.
• Inflation in the UK stood at 4.7
percent in October 2023.
• Inflation in Italy decrease to 1.7
percent in October 2023, after
peaking in late 2022.
• Inflation in the U.S. was down to
3.2 percent in October 2023.
2
Is the global economy headed
toward a recession?
• Real GDP growth worldwide is
projected to reach three percent in
2023.
• Real GDP growth in the eurozone is
forecast to slow to 0.7 percent in
2023.
• Real GDP in Russia has fallen 2.1
percent in 2022.
• Real GDP in the Germany is set to
decrease by 0.5 percent in 2023.
3
How are the largest economies
faring?
• In Q2 2023, real income fell by 0.3
percent in Italy and Japan, while it
increased slightly in France and
Germany.
• In September 2023, industrial
production decreased by 1.6
percent in Germany and 0.6 percent
in the U.S..
• In September 2023, retail sales
declined by one percent in France
and by 0.4 percent in Italy.
 What is causing
the current
economic
1 slowdown?

Global recession timeline

Major events that shaped the global economy between 2020 and 2023

COVID-19 pandemic Negative GDP growth Spiraling energy prices U.S. banking crisis scare

The first wave of the pandemic During the first two waves of Despite increasing demand, A banking crisis led to
resulted in economic the pandemic, countries energy supplies were low. the collapse of several
restrictions that varied in struggled to contain outbreaks. Energy began to contribute American regional banks as
severity. Demand for goods Lockdowns and closures meant significantly to high inflation well as the buyout of Credit
and services fell. economic output fell in 2020. towards the end of 2021. Suisse by UBS in Switzerland.

2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023

Crashing stock markets Rising prices for food and
raw materials
In March 2020, stock markets
worldwide suffered dramatic Demand for goods and
falls. They would take some services recovered quickly
time to recover due to the throughout 2021. Supply
long crisis. chains struggled to return to
normal, driving up prices.
Russia-Ukraine invasion
The global economic recovery
from the COVID-19 pandemic
stalled following Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine in
February 2022.
Emerging regional
conflicts
A series of coups, armed
conflicts, and political crises
broke out in Africa. The
Israel-Hamas war escalated
in October.

3 3

Sources: Bloomberg; FAO; IMF; OECD; Reuters; Statista; The Economist; World Bank
 What is causing
the current
economic
1 slowdown?

Global growth forecast to stall between 2023 and 2024

GDP growth in 2022 and forecasts for 2023 and 2024

Eurozone
World Emerging and
developing Asia
3.3% 1.2%
0.7%
5.2% 4.8%
3.5% 2022 2023 2024
4.5%
3% 2.9%
United States
Middle East and
2022 2023 2024 Central Asia 2022 2023 2024

2.1% 2.1% 1.5% 5.6%

2022 2023 2024 3.4%

2%
2022 2023 2024

Latin America and the

Sub-Saharan Africa
Caribbean

4.1% 4% 4%
3.5%
2.3% 2.3%

2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024

4 Notes: Worldwide; 2022; 2023 and 2024 forecasts; annual percent change

Sources: IMF; ID 1340688

 What is causing
the current
economic
1 slowdown?

Despite energy prices fluctuating, inflation is slowly decreasing

The IMF primary commodity price index showed global fuel prices decreased throughout the first half of 2023, leading to lower – but still high – inflation levels

Russia invades Ukraine

The cost of fuel returned to Inflation is decreasing but
Price index pre-invasion levels after Russia invades Ukraine 18% remains high. While China is
(2016=100) peaking in August 2022. Since experiencing deflation,
June 2023, however, the cost 16% inflation in the UK was at 4.7
400 of fuel has increased again. percent in October 2023.
376.41 14%

12%
350 331.78
10%
300
256.86 8%
256.46
250 6%
202.89
4%
200
2%

150 138.45 0%

-2%
93.23
100 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct
'20 '21 '21 '21 '21 '21 '21 '22 '22 '22 '22 '22 '22 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23
50
Brazil China Eurozone France
Apr '20

Feb '21
Apr '21

Feb '22
Apr '22

Feb '23
Apr '23
Oct '20
Dec '20

Oct '21

Oct '22

Oct '23
Dec '21

Dec '22
Jun '20
Aug '20

Jun '21
Aug '21

Jun '22
Aug '22

Jun '23
Aug '23

Germany Italy Japan Russia

United Kingdom United States

5 Notes: (1) Worldwide; April 2020 to October 2023; (2) Worldwide; December 2020 to October 2023; inflation compared to the same month of the previous year

Sources: (1) IMF, ID: 1302801; (2) Bureau of Labor Statistics; Eurostat; INSEE; National Bureau of Statistics of China; Office for National Statistics of UK; Russian Federal State Statistics Service; Statistics Bureau of Japan; Statistisches Bundesamt, ID: 1034154
 Is the global
economy
headed towards
2 a recession?

Developed economies expected to struggle the most with growth

GDP growth for 2022 and forecasts for 2023 and 2024 in selected countries worldwide

2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024

Argentina 5% -2.5% 2.8% Iran 3.8% 3% 2.5% Poland 5.1% 0.6% 2.3%

Australia 3.7% 1.8% 1.2% Italy 3.7% 0.7% 0.7% Russia -2.1% 2.2% 1.1%

Brazil 2.9% 3.1% 1.5% Japan 1% 2% 1% Saudi Arabia 8.7% 0.8% 4%

Canada 3.4% 1.3% 1.6% Kazakhstan 3.3% 4.6% 4.2% South Africa 1.9% 0.9% 1.8%

China 3% 5% 4.2% Malaysia 8.7% 4% 4.3% Spain 5.8% 2.5% 1.7%

Egypt 6.7% 4.2% 3.6% Mexico 3.9% 3.2% 2.1% South Korea 2.6% 1.4% 2.2%

France 2.5% 1% 1.3% Netherlands 4.3% 0.6% 1.1% Thailand 2.6% 2.7% 3.2%

Germany 1.8% -0.5% 0.9% Nigeria 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% Turkey 5.5% 4% 3%

India 7.2% 6.3% 6.3% Pakistan 6.1% -0.5% 2.5% UK 4.1% 0.5% 0.6%

Indonesia 5.3% 5% 5% Philippines 7.6% 5.3% 5.9% U.S. 2.1% 2.1% 1.5%

6 6 Notes: Worldwide; 2022; 2023 and 2024 forecasts; the selected countries represent 83 percent of the world output; annual percent change

Sources: IMF; ID: 1365937

 Methodology
According to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), “a recession
involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the
economy and lasts more than a few months.” As this definition is broad and could
leave room for interpretation, the NBER provides five key indicators to track the
development of the economy.
Using multiple sources, Statista compiled an overview of the development of the
five key indicators of a recession in the largest economies worldwide in 2022. The
traffic light system is designed to provide a visual aid to identify the state of the
various indicators. For each indicator, the dial position is based on the weighted
average over the three periods according to the scheme below.

Real GDP Significant growth of 3% or better

Real disposable income Moderate growth between 1% and 2.9%

Industrial production Weak growth between 0% and 0.9%

Unemployment rate Moderate decrease between 0.1% and 1%

Wholesale/retail sales Significant decrease of 1.1% or worse

Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research

 How are the
largest
economies
3 faring?

Brazil

REAL GDP DISPOSABLE INCOME

Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023

1.4% 1% 0.1% - 1.9 2.1%

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNEMPLOYMENT RETAIL TRADE

Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023

-0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 8.3% 8.1% 7.9% 0.7% -0.1% 0.6%

8 Notes: (1) Brazil; Q1 to Q3 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (2) Brazil; Q1 and Q2 2023, data for Q4 2022 not available; growth compared to the previous quarter; (3) Brazil; July to September 2023; growth compared to the previous month;
(4) Brazil; July to September 2023; three-month moving average; (5) Brazil; July to September 2023; growth compared to the previous month
Sources: (1) OECD, ID: 276943; (2) Central Bank of Brazil, ID: 1343338; (3) (4) (5) Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, ID: 1342976; ID: 276771; ID: 1342970
 How are the
largest
economies
3 faring?

China

REAL GDP DISPOSABLE INCOME

Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023

2.3% 0.5% 1.3% 3.8% 5.8% 5.9%

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNEMPLOYMENT RETAIL TRADE

Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023

0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 5.2% 5% 5% 0% 0% 0.1%

9 Notes: (1) (2) China; Q1 to Q3 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (3) China; August to October 2023; growth compared to the previous month; (4) China; August to October 2023; refers to urban areas;
(5) China; August to October 2023; growth compared to the previous month
Sources: (1) OECD, ID: 1341661; (2) (3) (4) (5) National Bureau of Statistics, ID: 1342025; ID: 1342067; ID: 1109881; ID: 1342306
 How are the
largest
economies
3 faring?

European Union

REAL GDP DISPOSABLE INCOME

Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023

0.1% 0% 0% -0.3% 0.5% 0.3%

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNEMPLOYMENT RETAIL TRADE

Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023

-1.2% 0.6% -0.9% 6% 6% 6% -0.1% -0.5% -0.2%

10 Notes: (1) European Union; Q1 to Q3 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (2) European Union; Q4 2022 to Q2 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (3) European Union; July to September 2023; growth compared to the previous month;
(4) European Union; August to October 2023; (5) European Union; July to September 2023; growth compared to the previous month
Sources: (1) OECD, ID: 1341661; (2) (3) (4) (5) Eurostat, ID: 1342029; ID: 1342033; ID: 264887; ID: 1342292
 How are the
largest
economies
3 faring?

France

REAL GDP DISPOSABLE INCOME

Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023

0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.4% -0.5% 0.1%

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNEMPLOYMENT RETAIL TRADE

Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023

0.5% -0.1% -0.5% 7.4% 7.3% 7.3% -1.1% 0.2% -1%

11 Notes: (1) France; Q1 to Q3 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (2) France; Q4 2022 to Q2 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (3) France; July to September 2023; growth compared to the previous month;
(4) France; August to September 2023; (5) France; July to September 2023; growth compared to the previous month
Sources: (1) (2) OECD, ID: 1341661; ID: 1341807; (3) Eurostat, ID: 1342033; (4) Ycharts, ID: 1342007; (5) Eurostat, ID: 1342292
 How are the
largest
economies
3 faring?

Germany

REAL GDP DISPOSABLE INCOME

Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023

0% 0.1% -0.1% -1% -0.4% 0.5%

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNEMPLOYMENT RETAIL TRADE

Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023

-1.3% 0.4% -1.6% 5.8% 5.7% 5.7% -1.1% -0.1% 1.1%

12 Notes: (1) Germany; Q1 to Q3 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (2) Germany; Q4 2022 to Q2 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (3) Germany; August to September 2023; growth compared to the previous month;
(4) Germany; August to September 2023; (5) Germany; August to September 2023; growth compared to the previous month
Sources: (1) (2) OECD, ID: 1341661; ID: 1341807; (3) Eurostat, ID: 1342033; (4) Bundesagentur für Arbeit, ID: 1304278; (5) Eurostat, ID: 1342292
 How are the
largest
economies
3 faring?

Italy

REAL GDP DISPOSABLE INCOME

Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023

0.6% -0.4% 0% -4% 3% -0.3%

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNEMPLOYMENT RETAIL TRADE

Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023

-0.9% 0.3% 0% 7.5% 7.6% 7.8% -0.1% -0.7% -0.4%

13 Notes: (1) Italy; Q1 to Q3 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (2) Italy; Q4 2022 to Q2 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (3) Italy; July to September 2023; growth compared to the previous month; (4) Italy; April to June 2023;
(5) Italy; July to September 2023; growth compared to the previous month
Sources: (1) (2) OECD, ID: 1341661; ID: 1341807; (3) Eurostat, ID: 1342033; (4) ISTAT, ID: 575787; (5) Eurostat, ID: 1342292
 How are the
largest
economies
3 faring?

Japan

REAL GDP DISPOSABLE INCOME

Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023

0.9% 1.1% 0.5% -0.6% -0.2% -0.3%

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNEMPLOYMENT RETAIL TRADE

Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023

-0.7% 0.5% 1% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% -0.2% -0.1% -1.6%

14 Notes: (1) Japan; Q1 to Q3 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (2) Japan; Q4 2022 to Q2 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (3) Japan; August to October 2023; growth compared to the previous month; (4) Japan; August to October 2023;
(5) Japan; August to October 2023; growth compared to the previous month
Sources: (1) OECD, ID: 1341661; (2) Cabinet Office of Japan, ID: 1342204; (3) METI, ID: 1342132; (4) Statistics Bureau of Japan, ID: 276787; (5) METI; Trading Economics, ID: 1342311
 How are the
largest
economies
3 faring?

Russia

REAL GDP DISPOSABLE INCOME

Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023

-1.8% 4.9% 5.5% -18.8% -21.9% 13.5%

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNEMPLOYMENT RETAIL TRADE

Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023

2% 1% 4.9% 3% 3% 2.9% 3.2% -2.1% 2%

15 Notes: (1) Russia; Q1 to Q3 2023; growth compared to the same quarter of the previous year; (2) Russia; Q4 2022 to Q2 2023; growth compared to the same quarter of the previous year; (3) Russia; August to October 2023; growth compared to the previous month;
(4) Russia; August to October 2023; (5) Russia; August to October 2023; growth compared to the previous month
Sources: (1) (2) Russian Federal State Statistics Service, ID: 276951; ID: 1342481; (3) Russian Federal State Statistics Service; Trading Economics, ID: 1342213; (4) Russian Federal State Statistics Service, ID: 277043; (5) Russian Federal State Statistics Service;
Trading Economics, ID: 1313911
 How are the
largest
economies
3 faring?

United Kingdom

REAL GDP DISPOSABLE INCOME

Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023

0.3% 0.2% 0% 1.4% -0.1% 1.1%

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNEMPLOYMENT RETAIL TRADE

Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023

-0.7% -0.7% 0% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 0.4% -1.1% -0.3%

16 Notes: (1) United Kingdom; Q1 to Q3 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (2) United Kingdom; Q4 2022 to Q2 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (3) United Kingdom; July to September 2023; growth compared to the previous month;
(4) United Kingdom; ; July to September 2023; (5) United Kingdom; August to October 2023; growth compared to the previous month
Sources: (1) OECD, ID: 1341661; (2) (3) (4) (5) Office for National Statistics of UK, ID: 1341952; ID: 1342035; ID: 279898; ID: 1342302
 How are the
largest
economies
3 faring?

United States

REAL GDP DISPOSABLE INCOME

Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023

0.6% 0.5% 1.3% 0.1% 2.3% 0.5%

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UNEMPLOYMENT RETAIL TRADE

Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023 Aug 2023 Sep 2023 Oct 2023

0% 0.1% -0.6% 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 0.8% 0.8% -0.2%

17 Notes: (1) United States; Q1 to Q3 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (2) United States; Q4 2022 to Q2 2023; growth compared to the previous quarter; (3) United States; August to October 2023; growth compared to the previous month;
(4) United States; August to October 2023; (5) United States; August to October 2023; growth compared to the previous month
Sources: (1) (2) OECD, ID: 1341661; ID: 1341807; (3) Federal Reserve System, ID: 1342034; (4) Bureau of Labor Statistics, ID: 273909; (5) St. Louis Fed; U.S. Census Bureau, ID: 1342312
 The inflation crisis
Outlook
1 2
What is causing the current economic
slowdown?
Triggered by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine
war and later aggravated by emerging
regional crises – geopolitical and trade
tensions, as well as pushes for
deglobalization, caused soaring high
inflation and slower economic activity
throughout 2022 and 2023. As the
crises persist, it is unlikely that the outlook
for the global economy will improve in
2024, with the largest economies
especially struggling with growth.
Pressure on global supply chains remains
high, while inflation is decreasing slowly,
and economies worldwide are stagnating.
18
Sources: IMF; ID: 1315308; ID: 1313373; ID: 1332257; ID: 1207726; ID: 1034304; ID: 1027931
Is the global economy headed towards
a recession?
Recently aggravated by the Israel-Hamas
war, geopolitical risk and economic
instability are expected to keep hindering
economic growth globally.
In October 2023, the IMF published
updated GDP growth forecasts, revising
figures from its previous releases.
Developed countries are most impacted:
Economic activity in Europe and North
America is set to slow in 2023 and 2024,
while China is predicted to experience its
slowest GDP growth in years.
3
How are the largest economies faring?
While unemployment remains stable,
industrial production has kept slowing
down in the largest economies worldwide,
and so has consumption. The U.S. Federal
Reserve, the Bank of England, and the
European Central Bank raised interest
rates throughout 2022 and 2023 to slow
down inflation, which is inhibiting
investments and caused mortgage and
loan interest rates to increase
dramatically. As GDP and income are
stagnating, analysts predict a soft landing
for 2023, but the scenario is not expected
to improve in 2024.
 Sources Further reading
If you would like to know more about this topic and related topics, check out
our recommendations below:

Bloomberg Office for National Statistics of UK This report presents the latest estimates on

Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics Organisation for Economic Co-operation the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the

and Development (OECD) global, Russian, and Ukrainian economies, as

Bundesagentur für Arbeit
well as on selected industries affected by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics Reuters
war and the sanctions imposed on Russia.
Cabinet Office of Japan Russian Federal State Statistics Service

Central Bank of Brazil Statista

Eurostat Statistics Bureau of Japan This report analyzes the economic

Federal Reserve System Statistisches Bundesamt development following the COVID-19 outbreak
St. Louis Fed and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) The Economist

Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) Trading Economics

Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry U.S. Census Bureau

of Japan (METI)
National Bureau of Statistics of China
National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER)
National Institute of Statistics and Economic
Studies (INSEE)
World Bank This report compares the events that led to
YCharts the last two recessions and the present
economic conditions. Additionally, it provides
insights into public sentiment regarding the
next recession as well as an outlook for the
future.

19
Author

Sebastiano Lucchitta
Financial Services and Real Estate Expert

sebastiano.lucchitta@statista.com

Sebastiano Lucchitta is a researcher working on financial services

and real estate research topics. Since joining Statista, he has built
expertise on the impact of technology in the financial services
sector, focusing on fintech, digital banking, and alternative finance.

www.statista.com