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Assessment of Karmi Landslide Zone, Bageshwar, Uttarakhand, India

Article in Journal of the Geological Society of India · October 2020

DOI: 10.1007/s12594-020-1567-0

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JOURNAL GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF INDIA
Vol.96, October 2020, pp.385-393
Assessment of Karmi Landslide Zone, Bageshwar, Uttarakhand,
India
V. N. Tiwari1,2*, V. H. R. Pandey3, Ashutosh Kainthola3*, P. K. Singh4, K. H. Singh1,
and T. N. Singh1
1
Department of Earth Sciences, IIT Bombay, Mumbai - 400 076, India
2
CE, PWD (UK), Almora – 263 601, India
3
Department of Geology, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi – 221 005, India
4
Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of Allahabad- Prayagraj - 211 002, India
*E-mail: ashutoshkainthola@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Slope instability is a big challenge for the population in
mountainous regions. It poses a threat to life, economy, and
infrastructure. For the safety of people, various prevention and
precautions are taken and hence many scientific studies are going
on. In the present study, the stability of the Karmi landslides zone,
Bageshwar, Uttarakhand, India is assessed. Karmi village lies quite
close to the northern border of India and the excavated roads are
the only means of commute. The area lies in a tectonically active
lesser Himalayan zone with high relief. Slope geometry was
extracted using a total station, and seven different slope geometries
were plotted. Soil and rock mass samples were taken and evaluated
from various field and laboratory investigations. The direct shear
test was performed to assess the friction angle and cohesion of the
soil and rock mass. Numerical simulations viz., finite element
analysis and probabilistic analysis have been applied on all seven
slope sections and found that the mean and median safety factor of
all the modeled slopes was 0.78 and 0.81, respectively. The study
ascertains that the whole area to be quite vulnerable to failure,
especially during rains, since the pore pressure build-up diminishes
the shear strength of the slope forming material. Possible mitigation
measures have been suggested based on the examined instability
of the hill slopes.
INTRODUCTION
Instability of slopes is a major problem in mountainous regions
all over the world. Each year, massive damage to life and property
results from natural and man-made slope failure incidents.
Developmental works such as roads, buildings, bridges, and dams
across various parts of the globe are the major contributor to landslides
and slope failures (Awasthi et al., 2019). Slope stability is the potential
of any excavated or naturally inclined slope of rock/ soil/ debris to
withstand or undergo downward and outward movement. In other
words, the resistance of an inclined surface to failure by collapsing or
sliding. There is a quantitative approach to measure slope stability
known as factor of safety (FOS), which is the ratio of movement
resisting forces (available shear strength) to driving forces (acting shear
stress). Factors affecting the slope stability are geometry of slope (such
as slope height and slope angle etc), discontinuities present in rock
mass and their orientation with respect to slope’s orientation,
geotechnical & mechanical properties of slope forming materials (such
as friction angle, cohesion, shear strength, pore pressure, Youngs’
modulus, and Poisson’s ratio, etc), hydrologic events (such as intense
or prolonged rainfall, rapid snowmelt, progressive soil saturation and
increase of water pressure within the slope, etc), anthropogenic
0016-7622/2020-96-4-385/$ 1.00 © GEOL. SOC. INDIA | DOI: 10.1007/s12594-020-1567-0
activities (such as undercutting, overloading, cutting of trees and
unplanned explosions, etc. for various construction activities) and
seismic events (Kainthola et al., 2015).
Stability analysis is carried out to assess the suitability of the
excavation design and also to understand the probability of collapse
so that damage to life and property can be avoided in the near future.
Usually, inference of the type of slope failures, possible causes, the
intensity of impact on local socio-economic conditions and the design
of an economical method of remediation is done (Singh et al., 2013).
One can also locate the parts of the slope which are unstable and
apply appropriate support and reinforcement to counter any untoward
slope movement. Hence, before carrying out any major construction
works such as roads, dams, and bridges in hilly terrain stability
assessment in a scientific manner is warranted. In the present study
area “Karmi village” (Bageshwar district of Uttarakhand), with a
total population of 2241 people (according to 2011 population census)
slope stability analysis has been carried out to assess the safety and
stability of natural and cut slopes for construction of Prime Minister
Village Road Scheme (PMGSY). Through the examination FEM and
probabilistic method, the vulnerable zones prone to failure and their
potential modes of failures have been identified.
There are various scientific methods for carrying out stability
assessment of slopes, with their own set of merits and demerits,
depending on the nature of the slope and purpose of the structure.
Finite element method is a type of continuum numerical method of
analysis employing approximation to the congruence of elements,
displacements, and stresses between elements using shear strength
reduction (SSR) technique (Dawson et al., 1999; Hammah et al., 2007;
Matsui and San, 1992). The probabilistic analysis considers the
variance in the values of geotechnical and mechanical properties of
the rock mass to provide a probability of failure. For this purpose,
firstly slope’s geometry was created through a total station survey which
was fed with the laboratory and field assessed geotechnical and
hydraulic parameters of the rock mass.
PREVIOUS WORK
The present study area is situated in Karmi village (Bageshwar,
Uttarakhand, India) and lies from 30.075° N to 30.175° N & 79.908°
E to 79.958° E (Fig. 1). The study area lies in one of the most
tectonically active zones of the world. The area has an average elevation
of 1900 m above mean sea level, with the highest point of 3200 m
above MSL. On a regional scale Himalayan have been divide into
four litho-tectonic zone from south to north, i.e., Outer Himalayan,
Lesser Himalayan, Higher Himalayan and Tethys Himalayan; and also
three zones from west to east i.e., Western Himalayan, Central


Fig. 1. Karmi (the study area), Bageshwar, Uttarakhand, India
(Modified after Tripathi, 2018).
Himalayan and Eastern Himalayan (Yin, 2006). The study area falls
under the Central Himalayan region as well as the lesser Himalayan
region, MCT being just north of the area. Since the study area lies in
Fig. 2. Tectonic cross-section map of Kumaon Himalayan along SSW-NNE (modified after Merh, 1977).
Fig. 3. Geological map of the study area (Bageshwar district, Uttarakhand, India) (modified after Valdiya, 1980).
386
between main boundary thrust (MBT) and main central thrust (MCT),
it is intensively deformed and mechanical properties of the rocks and
rock masses have been greatly affected. Earlier workers have also
categorized the study area under the northern Kumaon Himalayan
region and have depicted a four-generation of folding and few local
faults, but in the vicinity of the study area, only two generations of
folding are present (Fig. 2) (Chamyal, 1991). Geologically Bageshwar
district is divided into six lithological divisions namely Berinag,
Tejam and Rautgara formations, Jutogh Group nappe, central
crystalline, and granitoid of Almora (Fig. 3) (Valdiya, 1983). Rocks
of the study area mainly consist of fine to coarse-grained massive
quartzite, often sericitic and schistose with pebble beds, chlorite schist
and interbedded metabasics of Berinag Formation towards north and
limestone, slate, dolomite and conglomerate of Tejam Formation in
the southern part (Prakash et al., 1978). Here, the rocks are weathered
and moderately to highly jointed, hence the mechanical properties of
rock mass are degraded which makes the area susceptible to slope
failure.
The area receives an average annual rainfall of 1336 mm, while


JOUR.GEOL.SOC.INDIA, VOL.96, OCT. 2020
75% of total rainfall is received between June and September (Kumar,
2017). The high amount of rainfall in the area increases the pore fluid
pressure of the rock mass and hence effectively reducing the shear
strength (Kainthola et al., 2011). Water also enters the discontinuity
planes (joints and fracture surfaces) present in the rock mass and
reduces the friction of these surfaces and makes them prone to
movement. The whole study area is made up of high ridges together
with deep and narrow valleys following sub-rectangular, sub-dendritic
and also sub-trellis drainage patterns. Therefore, the influence of water
on the strength reduction of rocks is rampant. The main river present
in the study area is Saryu flowing from NNE towards SSW, which is
mainly fed by glacier melting and occasionally by groundwater. The
river causes slope instability in the area by undercutting the base of
the slopes. The annual average temperature of the study area is
20.4 °C and the warmest month is June with an average temperature
of 27.3 °C. The area has a higher potential of seismic events of larger
scales (sometimes of magnitude >7.5), as it lies in the Himalayan
region, home to many major and minor faults which often get active
and cause small to large scale earthquakes, which ultimately results in
slope failure events (Keefer, 2002). The area has a well-known history
of slope failure events, which are quite likely to take place in the future
too. One of the most hazardous slope failures as of July 1983, which
resulted in huge loss of life, property and catastrophic environmental
degradation (Pande, 1992). Vulnerable zones of the landslides present
in the study area are marked in Fig. 4. A lot of research work is going
on in this area to determine possible zones of slope failure; to
understand the mechanism and causes behind slope failure; to predict
the possible type of slope failures; to devise new techniques of support
and reinforcement for the safety of natural or excavated slopes & also
to assess the possible damage to life and property in case any slope
failure events in future.
Fig. 4. Vulnerable zones of landslides present in the study area.
JOUR.GEOL.SOC.INDIA, VOL.96, OCT. 2020
METHODOLOGY
The Topography of the Study Area
The topographical survey of the area depicts steep sloping
ground, with ridges on both the eastern and the western ends
(Fig. 5). Since the region is undergoing continuous uplift and neo-
tectonism the topography is rugged and dynamic. Locally, the left
spur of the western ridge is steeper than the right spur of the
eastern ridge. And the depression present in between the ridges is
moderately dipping toward the south, through which the Saryu river
flows.
Material Testing
A total of sixteen representative samples of slope mass were
collected from the five slip sites (locations) and with each sample
three tests were performed for strength assessment and hence a
total of forty-eight tests were conducted for the study (Fig. 6 a, b
and 7). The samples were tested for their shear strength and other
deformational attributes. Shear strength of the soil/rock mass was
assessed through direct shear testing (Fig. 6 c, d and 8). In this test,
the value of shear stress is obtained for any given normal stress. Graph
of shear stress vs normal stress is plotted from the obtained values
(Fig. 9). The slope of the line (m) plotted between shearing stress and
normal stress ascribes the value of internal friction (Equation 1) and
the intercept of the same line on the y-axis (along shear stress
axis) depicts the value of cohesion of the soil/rock mass (Labuz and
Zang, 2012).
Φ = tan-1 m (1)
where, Φ = internal friction, and m = slope of the line.

387
 Table 1. Averaged material properties obtained after various field investigations
and laboratory testing.
Unit Weight (MN/m3) 0.025
Young’s Modulus (MPa) 5000
Poisson’s ratio 0.29

Table 2. Statistical data of friction angle and cohesion of rock mass

Frictioni angle Cohesion
“Φ” (in degree) (MPa)
Minimum 31.00 0.01500
Q1 32.50 0.01575
Median 33.50 0.01600
Q3 34.75 0.01900
Maximum 37.00 0.02800
Mean 33.75 0.01875
Range 06.00 0.01300
Standard Deviation 02.50 0.00618


Fig. 5. Contour map of the study area (not to scale) (DEM generated
using USGS data).
MATERIAL PROPERTIES
Statistical Analysis
To gain a better understanding of the variability of geo-mechanical
parameters, a statistical analysis was performed on Unit weight, Young's
modulus, and Poisson's ratio obtained at different locations through
laboratory testing (Table 1). Examination of different statistical
parameters such as minimum, Q1, median, Q3, maximum, mean, range
and standard deviation of angle of internal friction and cohesion was
done (Table 2).
The above graphical analysis depicts a higher dispersion in
cohesion values when compared to the angle of internal friction,
which can be attributed to varying amounts of clay content (Fig.10
and 11).
SIMULATION
Numerical simulation is a robust approach to visualize and solve
complex geo-engineering problem. In traditional slope stability analysis
methods, the shape/ location of the slip surface have to be presumed
but in numerical modelings, no such presumptions are required
(RocScience, 2004). Cheaper computation technologies have enabled
their widespread use in research and practice. Numerical simulations
are generally done using three approaches i.e., continuum,
discontinuum, and hybrid (Pain et al., 2014).


Fig. 6. Sample collection and direct shear test.

388 JOUR.GEOL.SOC.INDIA, VOL.96, OCT. 2020

 
Fig. 7. Sample locations along road section in the study area (Google Earth).

Fig. 8. Experimental setup for the direct shear test.

Fig. 9. Shearing stress vs Normal stress distribution of the soil sample

collected at N30.039° & E79.925° in the study area.

Fig. 10. Statistical distribution of internal angle of friction. Fig. 11. Statistical distribution of cohesion.

JOUR.GEOL.SOC.INDIA, VOL.96, OCT. 2020 389

 In the present study, a 2D finite element method (FEM) and
probabilistic analysis were used to assess the stability of the concerned
slopes. FEM uses computer-aided design to simulate real-world
problems, having a continuous variation of material properties and a
user-defined stress environment to come to a solution (Griffith and
Lane, 1999). These models are specified by specific geometry, material
properties, stress conditions, and constraints. FEM utilizes two
approaches to solve stability related issues, either through an increase
in the gravity load or by a reduction in the strength characteristics of
the geological material (Ugai, 1989). In the present study, shear strength
reduction (SSR) technique was utilized to calculate the factor of safety
(FOS) (Equation 2).
FOS = τ / τf (2)
where, τ = shear strength of the slope material.
Shear strength (τ ) of the slope material, while ensuing normal
and shear stress was calculated using coded programs (Equations 3
and 4). Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria is a tangent to the Mohr's circle
surface and its slope gives the value of friction angle and its intercept
on the shear stress axis gives the value of cohesion (Hackston and
Rutter, 2016; Mahanta et al., 2016). Mathematically, it defines the
linear relationship between the parameters such as shear strength,
normal stress, friction angle and cohesion of the material.
τ = c + σn tanφ (3)
τf = cf + σn tanφf (4)
where, c = cohesion of the slope material, cf = factored cohesion of
the slope material, σ n = normal stress on the slope material,
φ = friction angle of the slope material, φf = factored friction angle of
the slope material.
And for SSR technique Cf and Φf are calculated using the formulas
given in Equations 5 and 6 respectively.
cf = c / SRF (5)
Φf = tan–1(tanΦ/SRF) (6)
Fig. 12. Working principle of Rosenblueth's point estimate method (for two-variable input parameters) (after Valley and Duff, 2011).
390
where, SRF is strength reduction factor, equivalent to FOS in the
SSR technique of FEM. In this process of iteration, the rock/soil mass
strength parameters are reduced in small steps until the slope
equilibrium gets disturbed and fails (Kainthola et al., 2012). To obtain
the accurate SRF value, algorithm iterates until it finds the value of
FOS which will just cause the slope to fail (Laouafa and Royis, 2004).
In the present study, a realistic 2D representation of the problem
was created. The altitude and slope angle were retrieved through a
total station (TS) survey of the area. The boundary conditions included
unrestrained slope face, i.e., free movement in the x-y plane, however,
the remaining boundaries of the model are restrained. The slope model
meshed into a finite number of elements. There are various mesh types
and various meshing elements, but in the present study, the meshing
is performed using a uniform mesh with six noded triangular elements.
Thereafter, discretization was done to change the whole model to an
assemblage of elements for determining its response to the applied
stress conditions (Arnold, 1981).
Simultaneously, slope stability was also analyzed using the
probabilistic analysis to determine the effect of strength variability
and include the uncertainty in the slope mass properties (Valley and
Duff, 2011). Here, Rosenblueth's point estimate method has been used
for carrying out probabilistic analysis, in which each numerical value
point between one standard deviation on either side of the mean of
variable input parameters are selected to achieve possible solution
(Fig. 12) (Christian and Baecher, 1999; Valley and Duff, 2011). For
any function y = f (x1, x2, …, xn), where x1, x2, …, xn are variable
input parameter, its solution distribution is given by Equations 7 & 8.
2
=
(7)
=1
2
2 2
= 2
− (8)
=1
In the present study only two variable input parameters i.e., angle of

JOUR.GEOL.SOC.INDIA, VOL.96, OCT. 2020
internal friction (Φ) and cohesion (c) are taken into consideration to Table 3. Results of FEA and Probabilistic analysis for various models
ascertain possible critical SSR and hence FOS. Therefore, only two Model 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
numerical values i.e., "mean - standard deviation" and "mean + standard
Mean FOS 1.15 0.89 0.81 0.82 0.57 0.61 0.62
deviation" of each variable input parameters are employed to get a
possible solution. Also, 2n solutions are derived using this method, Std. Dev. FOS 0 0.0462 0.0216 0.0656 0.005 0.0126 0.034
where n is the number of variable input parameters. PF 0% 99.29% 100% 99.7% 100% 100% 100%
For FEA and probabilistic analysis, various slope geometries were
designed using topographical survey data. Finally, the results of Finite
Element Analysis (FEA) and probabilistic analysis for all the models FEA offers myriad advantages over other analysis techniques
were ascertained (Table 3). Here, two representative computer aided viz., traditional equilibrium methods; which require a prior assumption
designs (CAD) with their slope geometries (Fig. 13 and 16), as well of shape and location of failure surfaces. FEA calculates the stress-
as their maximum strain (Fig. 14 and 17) and displacement distributions strain dynamics in the model and its more appropriate for complex
(Fig. 15 and 18) are shown. geometry and material distribution (Duncan, 1996; Griffiths and

 

Fig. 13. Slope model I. Fig. 14. Maximum shear strain distribution with deformed boundaries
(in gray color) and deformed mesh along the analyzed slope (Slope
model I).


Fig. 15. Total displacement distribution with deformed boundaries

(in gray color) and deformed mesh along the analyzed slope (Slope
model I). Fig. 16. Slope model II.

 

Fig. 17. Maximum shear strain distribution with deformed boundaries Fig. 18. Total displacement distribution with deformed boundaries
(in gray color) and deformed mesh along the analyzed slope (Slope (in gray color) and deformed mesh along the analyzed slope (Slope
model II). model II).

JOUR.GEOL.SOC.INDIA, VOL.96, OCT. 2020 391

Fenton, 2004). Its simplicity as well as high degree of realism in slope
modeling by dealing with intricate boundary conditions, inhomogeneity
and anisotropic slope mass properties, groundwater conditions, and
dynamic stress environment make it quite popular among present
researchers and professionals (Matthews et al., 2014). Progressive slope
failures can also be simulated through FEA, which is not possible in
other traditional methods (Zheng et al., 2005). However, the FEA tool
is a continuum approach and relatively better tools are available when
simulating a jointed rock mass, namely distinct element modelling
(Eberhardt, 2003).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The results of FEA along with probabilistic analysis show that out
of seven modeled slope geometries, only one was found to be stable
(FOS > 1) and rest others were unstable (FOS < 1) (Table 3). The
mean and median FOS of all the seven modeled slope geometries was
found to be 0.78 and 0.81, respectively (Fig. 19). Hence, it can be said
that most of the slopes are unstable in the area and possible reasons
behind these failure activities could be greater slope angles, and owing
to its being fractured and decomposed, very low shear strength of
Fig.19. FOS distribution of various slope geometries.
rock/soil material. In rainy seasons frequency of landslides increases
since the discontinuities and void space of the slope mass is filled
with water, so pore pressure within them increases and eventually
their effective shear strength decreases. This causes a decrease in
frictional forces at the slip surface as well as there is an increase in
weight of overburden above slip surface due to additional weight of
absorbed water molecules within the slope mass, and combined effect
of both of these factors increases the frequency of landslides.
Groundwater conditions were not included in this study due to their
complexity but they also influence slope stability to a greater extent.
From the field study, it was established that slope mass is composed
of fractured and weathered slates, talc, quartzites and also debris
deposited due to earlier landslides. The Saryu river flows beside the
slopes which causes erosion of the toe of these slopes and makes them
prone to instability. Hence, overall a little alteration in the geo-
mechanical properties or rainfall activity or any seismic event will
result in slope failure activity (Solanki et al., 2019).
In the study area various support systems for vulnerable slopes
can be adopted such as retaining structures (gravity walls, soil-nailed
walls, sheet pile walls and mechanically stabilized embankments
including geosynthetic and geogrid reinforced walls), benching
technique, and bio-stabilization techniques. Drainage diversion can
also play a vital role in controlling slope failure activities in study
area, as this will play a key role in avoiding undercutting.
CONCLUSION
The present research work, has analyzed the stability of the
Karmi area, Bageshwar, Uttarakhand, India. The area has been a
witness to several landslide activities in the past. Initially, representative
samples were collected from several locations, which were further
392
tested for their strength parameters in the laboratory. The tests were
done with their natural moisture content. Afterward, the strength
parameters were used to simulate the stability of the hill slope through
FEM. A total of seven models were simulated to have a comprehensive
investigation of the slope health, aided by probabilistic analysis. The
hill slope was found to be in a critical state; the mean factor of safety
being 0.81. The results are close to the ground reality since the area
sees recurrent collapses of varying magnitude. The major reasons for
the instability are the crushed nature of the in-situ rocks, together with
a thick veneer of debris material. During monsoons, when this debris
is water-laden, the incidents of failures amplify. Prominent mode of
failure was found to be circular, mostly due to the fractured nature of
the slope forming material. Since the expanse of the area is large, an
economic stabilization approach should consist of bio-stabilization.
Proper drainage of excess water during rains in another critical aspect
that needs to be incorporated in the mitigation design.
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