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Centre for Applied Climate Sciences

Climate Outlook Review –

Northern Australia

June 2024

Authors: Prof Roger C Stone &

Dr Christa Pudmenzky
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Overview

This is a review and opinion of various seasonal and other forecast systems
currently available from a range of sources, from Australia and internationally.

Most models suggest potential for a reasonably wet La Niña pattern for
2024/25 for much of Australia. However, other factors such as a northward
displacement of the sub-tropical ridge would be expected to occasionally
ameliorate rainfall over southern and central Queensland under this pattern
during our winter.

The SOI has moved into a ‘rapidly rising’ phase pattern, typical of moving from
El Niño to La Niña at this time of year. Rainfall patterns in history that have
followed such SOI activity have been generally above normal in southern
border regions (and through southern states and to the Gascoyne-Murchison)
and around the long-term median and patchy elsewhere.

ECMWF extended range outputs have again reverted to a reasonably high

probability of exceeding the respective median for this time of year for the
July to September period and into summer for many districts.
BoM/ACCESS-S and UKMO extended range outputs suggest values close to
climatology for northern areas for July to September. However, higher rainfall
probability values are forecast for many central Australian, NSW and western
Australian regions (eg Gascoyne-Murchison).

Please note page 3, the forecast pasture growth map (Queensland

Government: “DES”) that utilises the integrated SOI phase system and their
pasture growth model.
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Figure 1: The SOI phase system showing the ‘probability of exceeding median rainfall’
values for Australia for the total period June to August 2024, based on a ‘rapidly rising
Phase pattern’ during April/May. Light grey areas have probability values close to the
long-term normal for this time of year. Dark grey, light blue, and blue areas are those
with the higher rainfall probability values (60% to 80% or higher). (Yellow shaded regions
have ~30% chance of above median rainfall for this period). (After Stone, et al.,
1996/Queensland Govt ‘the Longpaddock’).
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Figure 2: Probability of exceeding median pasture growth for June to August 2024
(relative to this period of the year). This output integrates antecedent moisture and
forecast rainfall, temperature, within a pasture growth model and the SOI phase
forecast system (courtesy DES, Queensland Govt).

The Southern Oscillation Index:

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is an index based on the difference between
surface pressure anomalies between Tahiti and Darwin. In effect, the SOI measures
the strength of the important atmospheric component of ENSO (El Niño/Southern
Oscillation).
The SOI phases (constructed using principal components and cluster analysis) consist
of five different categories that consider both rate of change and consistency in the
SOI.
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Figure 3: The most recent SOI phase was ‘rapidly rising’. The monthly value for May
2024 was plus 3.93 (+3.93) (Courtesy the Longpaddock website).

Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts:

Figure 4: Bureau of Meteorology Forecast - the Bureau of Meteorology now forecasts

a high probability (65% to 80%) of receiving median rainfall (relative to this time of the
year) for many central Australian, the Gascoyne-Murchison and NSW regions and parts
of NE Qld. Far northern regions now have values close to 50% (ie close to the long-term
climatology for these regions).
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Figure 5: Bureau of Meteorology Forecast ‘Chance of exceeding median

maximum temperatures’ for northern Australia for the overall July to September
2024 period. Almost all regions continue to indicate a high probability of above
normal maximum temperature values.
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Figure 6: Bureau of Meteorology Forecast ‘Chance of exceeding median

minimum temperatures’ for northern Australia for the overall July to September
2024 period. All regions of northern Australia are forecast by BOM to have a high
probability of above median minimum temperatures (this would not include frost
forecasts).
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Longer-term forecasts:

The UKMO and ECMWF models provide useful assessments of longer-term rainfall
probability values for northern Australia. The UKMO example below suggests close
to normal rainfall probability values for the July to September period over much of
Australia, although with low values over the NW.

Figure 7: UK Met Office (UKMO) forecast map for the longer-term: Probability of
getting above median precipitation for the total period July to September 2024.
Regions shaded blue have ~60% to 80% probability of above normal autumn rain.
Regions shaded white and have close to normal rainfall probability values for this
time of the year (somewhat similar to BoM forecast).
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Figure 8: ECMWF forecast rainfall probability values for northern and eastern
Australia – and the region generally, for July to September 2024 (Courtesy ECMWF).
Light green shaded regions (e.g., NE Qld) depict rainfall probability values of 70% to
80% of exceeding median rainfall, relative to this time of the year.

Figure 9. ECMWF forecast of maximum temperatures for July to September

2024. This forecast shows the probability of temperatures being above the long-
term median relative to that time of the year. Those regions shaded dark red have a
90% probability of being above the long-term median.
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Explaining the differences between models:

Dynamical models use the current state of the oceans and atmospheres combined with
our understanding of the physical processes behind weather and climate to forecast
the likelihood of future rainfall. Each dynamical model is based on certain model
calibrations, which differ from model to model, providing slightly different outcomes.
Statistical models use historical climate data to determine when conditions were
similar in the past and what rainfall resulted from those past conditions.
While all of the models may be slightly different, it is important to focus on the overall
predicted outcomes.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

ENSO events generally begin in the Southern Hemisphere winter, peak during summer,
and then usually end during autumn. The El Niño phase is often (but not always)
associated with warmer and drier conditions while La Niña phases are often (but not
always) associated with cooler and wetter conditions. The main areas of Australia
impacted by ENSO phases are the eastern seaboard, north-eastern Australia, and
south-eastern Australia.

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

MJO impacts weather in tropical Australia (and occasionally in higher latitude

areas) on a weekly to monthly timescale. According to BoM‘s and NOAA’s
forecasting system and UniSQ’s analysis, the MJO is currently due again around
mid-July.
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Previous SOI-phase forecast maps.

As these seasonal climate forecasts are issued for a three-month validity on a rolling
monthly basis, it has been decided to provide a continuous reference to these
forecasts, as below.

SOI phase Forecast December to February 2023/24. SOI phase Forecast January to March 2024.

SOI phase Forecast February to April 2024. SOI phase Forecast March to May 2024.

SOI phase forecast April to June 2024 SOI phase forecast May to July, 2024
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For further information, click on the following links:

• For the MJO

• For weekly SSTs

• For easterly (and westerly) wind anomalies across the Pacific

• For sub-surface temperatures across the Pacific

• For ECMWF forecast products

• For ‘plume’ forecasts of SSTs in the central Pacific

• For a complete history of the SOI

• The Long Paddock

• Additional information on ENSO

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References:

Allan, R., J. and Stone, R.C (2024) An explanation as to why the major 1997-98
and 2023-24 El Niños failed to result in widespread drought in Australia and
India. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., (submitted).

Pittock, A.B. (1975). ‘Climatic Change and the Patterns of Variation in Australian
Rainfall’ Search, 6, 11-12, 498-503.

Stone, R.C., Hammer, G.L., and Marcussen, (1996). ‘Prediction of Global Rainfall
probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index’, Nature, 384,
November 1996.

Williams, A.J., and Stone, R.C. (2008) ‘An assessment of relationships between
the Australian sub-tropical ridge, rainfall variability, and high-latitude circulation
patterns’ Int J. Climatology, 29, 691-709.

University of Southern Queensland

Centre for Applied Climate Sciences

Please email Prof Roger Stone

roger.stone@unisq.edu.au

This work is currently funded by Meat and Livestock Australia Donor

Company, the Queensland State Government through the Drought and
Climate Adaptation Program and the University of Southern Queensland