Indranil Ghosh BSE: 500825 | NSE: BRITANNIA

Financial Modeling
& Valuation Report
of Britannia
Industries
 Table of Contents

1 One Page Profile

2 Historical Financial Statement

3 Common Size Statement

4 Ratio Analysis

5 Forecasting

6 WACC

7 Intrinsic Growth

8 DCF Valuation

9 Relative Valuation

10 DuPont Analysis

11 Altman's Z Score Analysis

12 Value at Risk
 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD - One Page Profile
Britannia Industries is one of Indias leading food companies with a 100 year legacy and annual revenues in excess of
Rs. 9000 Cr. Britannia is among the most trusted food brands, and manufactures Indias favorite brands like Good
Day, Tiger, NutriChoice, Milk Bikis and Marie Gold which are household names in India. Britannias product portfolio
includes Biscuits, Bread, Cakes, Rusk, and Dairy products including Cheese, Beverages, Milk and Yoghurt.

INR (Cr.)
Key Financial Metrices 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Share Price - 5 Y

Total Sales 11,600 13,136 14,136 16,301 16,769

Sales growth (y-o-y) 4.93% 13.25% 7.61% 15.31% 2.88% 5200
Gross Profit Margin (%) 34.39% 34.88% 30.10% 33.12% 43.44%
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.80% 18.54% 14.51% 16.48% 18.93% 4200
EBIT Margin (%) 15.20% 17.03% 13.09% 15.09% 17.14%
Net Profit Margin (%) 12.92% 13.52% 9.66% 13.32% 12.77%
3200
Earning Per Share (in Rs.) 62 74 57 90 89
EPS growth (y-o-y) 43.29% 18.33% -23.13% 59.01% -1.37%
Dividend Per Share 35.00 157.50 56.50 72.00 73.50 2200
Dividend Growth (y-o-y) 133.33% 350.00% -64.13% 27.43% 2.08% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Key Financial Ratios 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Volume - 5 Y

60L
Price to Earnings 46.1x 46.9x 50.7x 44.8x 55.3x
EV/EBITDA 33.9x 36.6x 38.8x 39.8x 37.8x 40L
EV/Sales 5.7x 6.8x 5.6x 6.6x 7.2x
Price to Book Value 14.7x 24.6x 30.2x 29.5x 30.0x 20L
Return on Equity (%) 31.86% 52.54% 59.61% 65.69% 54.29%
0L
Return on Capital Employed (%) 37.13% 45.21% 41.51% 55.34% 49.09%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Top 5 Shareholders No.of Shares (in Cr.) % holding Market Value (in Cr.) Shareholding Pattern

Associated Biscuits International Limited 10.78 44.76% 58,810 Public 15.57%

Lici Asm Non Par 0.83 3.43% 4,510 DIIs 15.63%
Sbi Arbitrage Opportunities Fund 0.53 2.19% 2,878 FIIs 18.23%
Lici Index Plus Flexi Smart Growth Fund 0.48 1.98% 2,596 Promoters 50.55%
Quant Mutual Fund - Quant Small Cap Fund 0.32 1.32% 1,730

Managerial Remuneration Designation Remuneration Ratio to Median Pay Capital Structure

Mr. Rajneet Singh Kohli ED & CEO 26.03 Cr. 58.69 Share Price 5455
Mr. N. Venkataraman ED & CFO 38.20 Cr. 86.29 Shares Outstanding 24
Mr. T.V. Thulsidass CS - 16.93 Market Capitalizations 1,31,411
Mr. Nusli N. Wadia Chairman 68.10 Cr. 153.72 (+) Debt 2,065
Notes: (+) Minority Interest 24
(-) Cash & Equivalents 446
ED - Executive Director, CEO - Chief Executive Officer, CFO - Chief Financial Officer, CS - Company Secretary
Enterprise Value 1,33,054

SWOT Analysis
Strength:
• FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding Weakness:
• Improving Net Cash Flow for last 2 years • Declining Revenue every quarter for the past 2 quarters
• Improving Cash Flow from operation for last 2 years • Decline in Net Profit (QoQ)
• Company with Zero Promoter Pledge • Declining profits every quarter for the past 2 quarters

Opportunity: Threats:
• RSI indicating price strength • High PE (PE > 40)
• PEG lower than Industry PEG • Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income

Financial Highlights: 2023-2024

• The company's sales have shown a modest growth of 2.87% from 2023 to 2024.
• The gross profit has significantly increased by 34.96%, indicating an improvement in the company's profitability at the gross level.
• The EBITDA and EBIT have shown strong growth rates of 18.17% and 16.83%, respectively, suggesting an improvement in the compa ny's operating performance.
• The profit before tax has shown a slight growth of 1.14%, indicating relatively stable profitability at the pre -tax level.
• The net profit and EPS have slightly decreased by 1.34% and 1.11%, respectively, which may be due to factors such as increase d tax expenses or a higher number
of outstanding shares.
• The ROE has shown a declining trend, decreasing by 7.10% from 2022 to 2023.
• The ROCE has shown an improving trend, increasing by 10.18% from 2022 to 2023.
• The ROA has remained relatively stable, with a slight increase of 0.38% from 2022 to 2023.

Disclaimer: This report is made as part of educational assignment and is meant for educational purpose only. The author of the report is not liable for any losses due to actions
taken basis on this report. It is advisable to consult SBEI registered reserach analyst before making any investments

Source: screener.in
 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD
NSE: BRITANNIA | BSE: 500825

Historical Financial Statements

x Income Statement
Amounts in INR (Crs.) Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Sales 7,858 8,397 9,054 9,914 11,055 11,600 13,136 14,136 16,301 16,769
Sales Growth - 6.86% 7.82% 9.50% 11.51% 4.93% 13.25% 7.61% 15.31% 2.88%

COGS 5,419 5,627 6,311 6,711 7,468 7,611 8,555 9,881 10,902 9,485
COGS % of Sales 68.96% 67.01% 69.71% 67.69% 67.56% 65.61% 65.12% 69.90% 66.88% 56.56%

Gross Profit 2,439 2,771 2,743 3,203 3,586 3,989 4,581 4,255 5,398 7,285
Gross Profit Margin 31.04% 32.99% 30.29% 32.31% 32.44% 34.39% 34.88% 30.10% 33.12% 43.44%

SG&A 1,630 1,556 1,573 1,689 1,964 2,041 2,146 2,205 2,712 4,111
SG&A % of Sales 20.74% 18.53% 17.37% 17.04% 17.77% 17.59% 16.34% 15.60% 16.64% 24.51%

EBITDA 810 1,215 1,170 1,514 1,622 1,948 2,435 2,051 2,686 3,174
EBITDA Margin 10.30% 14.47% 12.92% 15.27% 14.67% 16.80% 18.54% 14.51% 16.48% 18.93%

Depreciation 144 113 119 142 162 185 198 201 226 300
Depreciation % of Sales 1.84% 1.35% 1.32% 1.43% 1.46% 1.59% 1.51% 1.42% 1.39% 1.79%

EBIT 665 1,102 1,051 1,372 1,460 1,764 2,237 1,850 2,460 2,874
EBIT Margin 8.46% 13.12% 11.60% 13.84% 13.21% 15.20% 17.03% 13.09% 15.09% 17.14%

Other Income 228 115 151 166 206 263 313 222 597 211
Other Income % of Sales 2.90% 1.37% 1.66% 1.68% 1.87% 2.27% 2.38% 1.57% 3.66% 1.26%

Interest Expenses 4 5 5 8 9 77 111 144 169 164

Interest Expenses % of EBIT 0.58% 0.44% 0.52% 0.55% 0.62% 4.36% 4.96% 7.80% 6.87% 5.71%

PBT 889 1,212 1,196 1,531 1,658 1,949 2,439 1,928 2,888 2,921
PBT % of Sales 11.31% 14.43% 13.21% 15.44% 14.99% 16.81% 18.57% 13.64% 17.72% 17.42%

Tax 261 396 420 514 612 451 663 562 716 779
Effective Tax Rate 29.38% 32.68% 35.10% 33.59% 36.95% 23.12% 27.18% 29.17% 24.81% 26.68%

Net Profit 628 816 776 1,017 1,045 1,499 1,776 1,365 2,171 2,142
Net Profit Margin 7.99% 9.72% 8.57% 10.25% 9.45% 12.92% 13.52% 9.66% 13.32% 12.77%

Shares Outstanding 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Earning Per Share 26 34 32 42 43 62 74 57 90 89

EPS Growth % - 29.92% -4.89% 30.96% 2.72% 43.29% 18.33% -23.13% 59.01% -1.37%

Dividend Per Share 8 10 11 12 15 35 158 56 72 74

Dividend Payout Ratio 30.58% 29.42% 34.02% 29.52% 34.49% 56.16% 213.59% 99.68% 79.88% 82.68%

Retained Earnings 69.42% 70.58% 65.98% 70.48% 65.51% 43.84% -113.59% 0.32% 20.12% 17.32%

x Balance Sheet
Amounts in INR (Crs.) Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Equity Share Capital 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
Reserves 1,221 2,068 2,672 3,382 4,229 4,379 3,524 2,534 3,510 3,917
Borrowings 145 131 125 201 156 1,538 2,122 2,481 2,997 2,065
Other Liabilities 1,403 1,271 1,288 1,581 1,829 1,889 2,331 2,487 2,819 3,067
Total Equity & Liabilities 2,793 3,494 4,109 5,188 6,238 7,830 8,000 7,527 9,351 9,074

Net Block 844 950 1,160 1,346 1,688 1,878 1,793 1,753 2,655 2,771
Capital Work in Progress 48 90 30 203 101 40 117 536 105 188
Investments 518 788 487 1,079 1,476 2,893 2,781 1,762 3,324 2,767
Other Assets 617 966 1,471 1,416 1,687 1,834 1,750 1,591 1,546 1,327
Total Non-Current Assets 2,027 2,795 3,147 4,044 4,953 6,645 6,440 5,642 7,631 7,053

Receivables 136 171 179 305 394 320 257 332 329 393
Inventory 404 441 661 653 781 741 1,091 1,367 1,193 1,181
Cash & Bank 226 88 121 186 110 123 211 185 198 446
Total Current Assets 766 699 961 1,144 1,285 1,184 1,560 1,884 1,720 2,021

Total Assets 2,793 3,494 4,109 5,188 6,238 7,830 8,000 7,527 9,351 9,074

Check TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD
NSE: BRITANNIA | BSE: 500825
Cash Flow Statement
Amounts in INR (Crs.) Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Cash Flow from Operating Activities:
Profit from operations 861 1,230 1,289 1,517 1,754 1,860 2,540 2,214 2,846 3,177
Receivables (25) (32) (9) (125) (87) 79 61 (72) 1 (64)
Inventory 17 (35) (221) 9 (127) 43 (351) (275) 177 13
Payables - - - - - - 402 64 292 237
Loans Advances 14 - - - - - (144) - - -
Other WC items 18 200 (221) 345 211 6 - (44) (65) (25)
Working capital changes 25 133 (451) 228 (2) 127 (32) (327) 406 161
Direct taxes (301) (403) (397) (496) (596) (503) (633) (587) (726) (765)
Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities: 609 1,093 (10) 1,478 1,153 1,612 1,843 973 2,931 2,734

Cash from Investing Activities:

Fixed assets purchased (118) (251) (360) (423) (401) (244) (241) (550) (711) (562)
Fixed assets sold 164 1 8 2 2 1 2 3 78 65
Investments purchased (277) (211) - (537) (334) (1,327) - (21) (1,468) (191)
Investments sold - - 359 - - - 179 1,069 443 771
Interest received 30 66 75 109 117 128 233 207 175 170
Dividends received - - - - - - - - - -
Investment in group cos - - (14) - - - - - (215) -
Redemp n Canc of Shares - - - - - - - - 262 -
Inter corporate deposits (250) (311) (218) (107) (239) (89) 289 202 88 250
Other investing items - - - - 3 6 (29) 5 (159) (28)
Net Cash Flow from Investing Activities: (451) (706) (150) (956) (852) (1,525) 433 915 (1,507) 475

Cash from Financing Activities:

Proceeds from shares - 4 6 15 30 24 103 - - -
Proceeds from debentures - - - - - 721 - 699 - -
Redemption of debentures - - - - - (869) - - (721) -
Proceeds from borrowings 17 - - - - 641 1,533 645 1,312 209
Repayment of borrowings (27) - - - (42) - (964) (984) (70) (1,141)
Investment subsidy - - - - - - - - - -
Interest paid fin (3) (5) (6) (7) (9) (36) (102) (119) (196) (165)
Dividends paid (168) (231) (288) (317) (354) (433) (2,824) (2,485) (1,359) (1,732)
Financial liabilities - - - - - (2) (3) (2) (3) (4)
Share application money - - - - - - - - - -
Other financing items - (15) (7) 78 23 12 14 - 9 2
Net Cash Flow from Financing Activities: (181) (247) (295) (231) (352) 58 (2,243) (2,246) (1,028) (2,831)

Net Cash Flow (23) 140 (455) 291 (51) 145 33 (358) 396 378
 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD
NSE: BRITANNIA | BSE: 500825
Common Size Statement
Income Statement
Particulars Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Sales 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
COGS 68.96% 67.01% 69.71% 67.69% 67.56% 65.61% 65.12% 69.90% 66.88% 56.56%
Gross Profit 31.04% 32.99% 30.29% 32.31% 32.44% 34.39% 34.88% 30.10% 33.12% 43.44%
SG&A 20.74% 18.53% 17.37% 17.04% 17.77% 17.59% 16.34% 15.60% 16.64% 24.51%
EBITDA 10.30% 14.47% 12.92% 15.27% 14.67% 16.80% 18.54% 14.51% 16.48% 18.93%
Depreciation 1.84% 1.35% 1.32% 1.43% 1.46% 1.59% 1.51% 1.42% 1.39% 1.79%
EBIT 8.46% 13.12% 11.60% 13.84% 13.21% 15.20% 17.03% 13.09% 15.09% 17.14%
Other Income 2.90% 1.37% 1.66% 1.68% 1.87% 2.27% 2.38% 1.57% 3.66% 1.26%
Interest Expenses 0.05% 0.06% 0.06% 0.08% 0.08% 0.66% 0.84% 1.02% 1.04% 0.98%
PBT 11.31% 14.43% 13.21% 15.44% 14.99% 16.81% 18.57% 13.64% 17.72% 17.42%
Effective Tax Rate 29.38% 32.68% 35.10% 33.59% 36.95% 23.12% 27.18% 29.17% 24.81% 26.68%
Net Profit 7.99% 9.72% 8.57% 10.25% 9.45% 12.92% 13.52% 9.66% 13.32% 12.77%

Balance Sheet
Particulars Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Equity Share Capital 0.86% 0.69% 0.58% 0.46% 0.39% 0.31% 0.30% 0.32% 0.26% 0.27%
Reserves 43.72% 59.18% 65.04% 65.19% 67.80% 55.93% 44.04% 33.67% 37.54% 43.17%
Borrowings 5.19% 3.75% 3.03% 3.87% 2.50% 19.64% 26.52% 32.97% 32.05% 22.76%
Other Liabilities 50.23% 36.38% 31.34% 30.47% 29.32% 24.13% 29.14% 33.05% 30.15% 33.80%
Total Equity & Liabilities 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Net Block 30.22% 27.20% 28.23% 25.94% 27.06% 23.99% 22.41% 23.29% 28.40% 30.54%
Capital Work in Progress 1.73% 2.58% 0.73% 3.91% 1.62% 0.51% 1.46% 7.12% 1.12% 2.07%
Investments 18.54% 22.56% 11.85% 20.80% 23.67% 36.95% 34.76% 23.42% 35.55% 30.49%
Other Assets 22.08% 27.66% 35.79% 27.30% 27.04% 23.43% 21.87% 21.14% 16.54% 14.63%
Receivables 4.86% 4.88% 4.36% 5.87% 6.32% 4.09% 3.22% 4.41% 3.52% 4.33%
Inventory 14.46% 12.61% 16.10% 12.58% 12.53% 9.46% 13.64% 18.17% 12.76% 13.02%
Cash & Bank 8.10% 2.51% 2.94% 3.59% 1.76% 1.57% 2.64% 2.46% 2.12% 4.92%
Total Assets 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD
NSE: BRITANNIA | BSE: 500825

Ratio Analysis
Ratios Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Trend Mean Median
x Performance Ratio (y-o-y):
Sales Growth - 6.86% 7.82% 9.50% 11.51% 4.93% 13.25% 7.61% 15.31% 2.88% 8.85% 7.82%
Gross Profit Growth - 13.59% -1.01% 16.78% 11.97% 11.22% 14.85% -7.11% 26.85% 34.94% 13.57% 13.59%
EBITDA Growth - 50.09% -3.72% 29.43% 7.13% 20.11% 24.98% -15.78% 30.97% 18.17% 17.93% 20.11%
EBIT Growth - 65.65% -4.64% 30.60% 6.43% 20.77% 26.86% -17.30% 32.95% 16.81% 19.79% 20.77%
PBT Growth - 36.36% -1.35% 28.03% 8.28% 17.61% 25.13% -20.97% 49.79% 1.15% 16.00% 17.61%
Net Profit Growth - 29.97% -4.89% 31.01% 2.81% 43.41% 18.52% -23.13% 59.01% -1.37% 17.26% 18.52%
EPS Growth - 29.92% -4.89% 30.96% 2.72% 43.29% 18.33% -23.13% 59.01% -1.37% 17.20% 18.33%
Dividend Growth - 25.00% 10.00% 13.63% 20.00% 133.33% 350.00% -64.13% 27.43% 2.08% 57.48% 20.00%

x Profitability Ratios:
Gross Profit Margin 31.04% 32.99% 30.29% 32.31% 32.44% 34.39% 34.88% 30.10% 33.12% 43.44% 33.50% 32.72%
EBITDA Margin 10.30% 14.47% 12.92% 15.27% 14.67% 16.80% 18.54% 14.51% 16.48% 18.93% 15.29% 14.97%
EBIT Margin 8.46% 13.12% 11.60% 13.84% 13.21% 15.20% 17.03% 13.09% 15.09% 17.14% 13.78% 13.52%
Operating Ratio 91.54% 86.88% 88.40% 86.16% 86.79% 84.80% 82.97% 86.91% 84.91% 82.86% 86.22% 86.48%
PBT Margin 11.31% 14.43% 13.21% 15.44% 14.99% 16.81% 18.57% 13.64% 17.72% 17.42% 15.35% 15.22%
Net Profit Margin 7.99% 9.72% 8.57% 10.25% 9.45% 12.92% 13.52% 9.66% 13.32% 12.77% 10.82% 9.98%
Return on Capital Employed 47.84% 49.56% 37.24% 38.04% 33.12% 29.69% 39.46% 36.72% 37.66% 47.84% 39.72% 37.85%
Return on Equity 50.41% 39.00% 28.78% 29.84% 24.57% 34.04% 50.07% 53.38% 61.43% 54.33% 42.59% 44.54%
Self-Sustained Growth Rate 35.00% 27.53% 18.99% 21.03% 16.10% 14.92% -56.88% 0.17% 12.36% 9.41% 9.86% 15.51%
Retained Earnings 69.42% 70.58% 65.98% 70.48% 65.51% 43.84% -113.59% 0.32% 20.12% 17.32% 31.00% 54.67%
Return on Assets 22.47% 23.35% 18.88% 19.59% 16.75% 19.14% 22.20% 18.14% 23.22% 23.60% 20.74% 20.90%
Dividend Payout Ratio 30.58% 29.42% 34.02% 29.52% 34.49% 56.16% 213.59% 99.68% 79.88% 82.68% 69.00% 45.33%

x Liquidity Ratios:
Current Ratio 0.5x 0.5x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 0.6x 0.7x 0.8x 0.6x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x
Quick Ratio 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x
Operating Cash Flow Ratio 0.4x 0.9x 0.0x 0.9x 0.6x 0.9x 0.8x 0.4x 1.0x 0.9x 0.7x 0.8x
Cash Ratio 0.2x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x

x Solvency Ratios:
Debt-Equity Ratio 0.1x 0.1x 0.0x 0.1x 0.0x 0.3x 0.6x 1.0x 0.8x 0.5x 0.4x 0.2x
Debt to Asset Ratio 5.19% 3.75% 3.03% 3.87% 2.50% 19.64% 26.52% 32.97% 32.05% 22.76% 15.23% 12.42%
Proprietary Ratio 44.57% 59.87% 65.63% 65.66% 68.18% 56.23% 44.35% 33.99% 37.80% 43.44% 51.97% 50.40%
Interest Coverage Ratio 172.3x 226.2x 192.8x 180.8x 160.6x 22.9x 20.2x 12.8x 14.5x 17.5x 102.1x 91.8x

x Expense Ratios:
COGS % of Sales 68.96% 67.01% 69.71% 67.69% 67.56% 65.61% 65.12% 69.90% 66.88% 56.56% 66.50% 67.28%
SG&A % of Sales 20.74% 18.53% 17.37% 17.04% 17.77% 17.59% 16.34% 15.60% 16.64% 24.51% 18.21% 17.48%
D&A % of Sales 1.84% 1.35% 1.32% 1.43% 1.46% 1.59% 1.51% 1.42% 1.39% 1.79% 1.51% 1.45%

x Activity Ratios:
Inventory Turnover Ratio 13.4x 12.8x 9.5x 10.3x 9.6x 10.3x 7.8x 7.2x 9.1x 8.0x 9.8x 9.5x
Trade Receivables Turnover 57.9x 49.2x 50.5x 32.5x 28.0x 36.2x 51.1x 42.6x 49.6x 42.6x 44.0x 45.9x
Trade Payables Turnover 3.9x 4.4x 4.9x 4.2x 4.1x 4.0x 3.7x 4.0x 3.9x 3.1x 4.0x 4.0x
DSO 6 Days 7 Days 7 Days 11 Days 13 Days 10 Days 7 Days 9 Days 7 Days 9 Days 9 Days 8 Days
DIO 27 Days 29 Days 38 Days 36 Days 38 Days 36 Days 47 Days 51 Days 40 Days 45 Days 39 Days 38 Days
DPO 95 Days 82 Days 74 Days 86 Days 89 Days 91 Days 99 Days 92 Days 94 Days 118 Days 92 Days 91 Days
CCC -61 Days -46 Days -29 Days -39 Days -38 Days -45 Days -46 Days -33 Days -47 Days -64 Days -45 Days -45 Days
Fixed Assets Turnover 9.3x 8.8x 7.8x 7.4x 6.5x 6.2x 7.3x 8.1x 6.1x 6.1x 7.4x 7.3x
Assets Turnover Ratio 2.8x 2.4x 2.2x 1.9x 1.8x 1.5x 1.6x 1.9x 1.7x 1.8x 2.0x 1.9x
Capital Turnover Ratio 6.3x 4.0x 3.4x 2.9x 2.6x 2.6x 3.7x 5.5x 4.6x 4.3x 4.0x 3.9x

x Operating Efficiency Ratios

CFO/Sales 0.1x 0.1x 0.0x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 0.2x 0.2x 0.1x 0.1x
CFO/Total Assets 0.2x 0.3x 0.0x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.1x 0.3x 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x
CFO/Total Debt 4.2x 8.3x -0.1x 7.4x 7.4x 1.0x 0.9x 0.4x 1.0x 1.3x 3.2x 1.2x
 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD
NSE: BRITANNIA | BSE: 500825
Forecasting
Year Weight Year Sales Sales Growth Year Weight Year EBITDA EBITDA Growth
1 2015A 7,858 - 1 2015A 810 -
2 2016A 8,397 6.86% 2 2016A 1,215 50.09%
3 2017A 9,054 7.82% 3 2017A 1,170 -3.72%
4 2018A 9,914 9.50% 4 2018A 1,514 29.43%
5 2019A 11,055 11.51% 5 2019A 1,622 7.13%
6 2020A 11,600 4.93% 6 2020A 1,948 20.11%
7 2021A 13,136 13.25% 7 2021A 2,435 24.98%
8 2022A 14,136 7.61% 8 2022A 2,051 -15.78%
9 2023A 16,301 15.31% 9 2023A 2,686 30.97%
10 2024A 16,769 2.88% 10 2024A 3,174 18.17%
11 2025E 17,527 4.52% 11 2025E 3,165 -0.29%
12 2026E 18,752 6.99% 12 2026E 3,405 7.59%
13 2027E 19,966 6.47% 13 2027E 3,692 8.44%
14 2028E 21,150 5.93% 14 2028E 3,936 6.61%
15 2029E 22,311 5.49% 15 2029E 4,202 6.75%

Sales Growth EBITDA Growth

25,000
4,500
20,000 3,500
15,000 2,500
10,000 1,500

5,000 500

Year Weight Year PAT PAT Growth Year Weight Year EPS EPS Growth
1 2015A 628 - 1 2015A 26 -
2 2016A 816 29.97% 2 2016A 34 29.92%
3 2017A 776 -4.89% 3 2017A 32 -4.89%
4 2018A 1,017 31.01% 4 2018A 42 30.96%
5 2019A 1,045 2.81% 5 2019A 43 2.72%
6 2020A 1,499 43.41% 6 2020A 62 43.29%
7 2021A 1,776 18.52% 7 2021A 74 18.33%
8 2022A 1,365 -23.13% 8 2022A 57 -23.13%
9 2023A 2,171 59.01% 9 2023A 90 59.01%
10 2024A 2,142 -1.37% 10 2024A 89 -1.37%
11 2025E 2,283 6.62% 11 2025E 95 6.59%
12 2026E 2,482 8.69% 12 2026E 103 8.66%
13 2027E 2,699 8.77% 13 2027E 112 8.74%
14 2028E 2,882 6.77% 14 2028E 120 6.76%
15 2029E 3,074 6.66% 15 2029E 127 6.65%

PAT Growth EPS Growth

3,000 140
2,500
100
2,000
1,500 60
1,000
500 20
 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD
NSE: BRITANNIA | BSE: 500825
WACC
All figures are in INR (Crs.) unless stated otherwise

Peer Comps
Total Total Tax Debt/ Debt/ Levered Unlevered
Name Country Debt Equity Rate 1 Equity Capital Beta 2 Beta
Hindustan Unilever India 1,484 5,80,584 30.00% 0.26% 0.25% 0.08 0.08
Nestle India India 345 2,44,091 30.00% 0.14% 0.14% 0.06 0.06
Varun Beverages India 5,431 2,12,647 30.00% 2.55% 2.49% 0.59 0.58
Godrej Consumer India 3,222 1,43,502 30.00% 2.25% 2.20% 0.36 0.35
Britannia Industries India 2,065 1,30,802 30.00% 1.58% 1.55% 0.50 0.49
Dabur India India 1,365 1,06,782 30.00% 1.28% 1.26% 0.25 0.25

Average 30.00% 1.34% 1.32% 0.31 0.30

Median 30.00% 1.43% 1.41% 0.31 0.30

Cost of Debt Cost of Equity

Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 12.00% Risk Free Rate 7.01%
Tax Rate 30.00% Levered Beta 0.30
Post Tax Cost of Debt 8.40% Equity Risk Premium 11.02%
Cost of Equity 10.36%

Capital Structure Levered Beta

Current Target Comps Median Unlevered Beta 0.30
Total Debt 2,065 1.55% 1.32% Target Debt/Equity 1.33%
Market Capitalization 1,30,802 98.45% 98.68% Tax Rate 30.00%
Total Capital 1,32,867 100.00% 100.00% Levered Beta 0.30

Debt/Equity 1.58% 1.33% Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Cost of Equity 10.36%

1. Tax Rate considered as Marginal Tax Rate of the country Equity Weight 98.68%
2. Levered Beta is based on 5 years monthly data
Cost of Debt 8.40%
Debt Weight 1.32%

WACC 10.33%
 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD
NSE: BRITANNIA | BSE: 500825
Calculation of ROIC Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Current Assets
Inventories 741 1,091 1,367 1,193 1,181
Trade receivables 320 257 332 329 393
Cash Equivalents 123 211 185 198 446
Short term loans - 5 3 1 460
Other asset items 1,834 1,745 1,588 1,545 867
Total Current Assets 3,018 3,309 3,475 3,266 3,347

Current Liabilities
Trade Payables 1,047 1,313 1,323 1,449 1,627
Advance from Customers 78 55 34 55 -
Other liability items 729 927 1,103 1,285 1,415
Total Current Liabilities 1,854 2,295 2,460 2,789 3,042

x Net Working Capital 1,164 1,014 1,015 477 305

Non-Current Assets
Land 319 326 334 376 392
Building 732 758 782 1,143 1,193
Plant Machinery 1,305 1,407 1,546 2,303 2,404
Equipments 40 46 52 61 64
Furniture n fittings 31 32 32 43 45
Vehicles 5 5 6 10 10
Intangible Assets 143 136 140 130 141
Other fixed assets 43 46 57 86 90
Gross Block 2,618 2,756 2,949 4,152 4,339
Accumulated Depreciation (739) (963) (1,195) (1,495) (1,562)
x Net Non-Current Assets 1,879 1,793 1,754 2,657 2,777

x Invested Capital 3,043 2,807 2,769 3,134 3,082

EBIT 1,764 2,237 1,850 2,460 2,874
Tax Rate 23.12% 27.18% 29.17% 24.81% 26.68%
NOPAT 1,356 1,629 1,311 1,850 2,107
x ROIC 44.55% 58.04% 47.33% 59.02% 68.37%

Calculation of Reinvestment Rate Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24

Net CAPEX 243 239 547 633 497
Changes in Working Capital - (150) 1 (538) (172)
NOPAT 1,356 1,629 1,311 1,850 2,107
Reinvestment - 89 548 95 325
Reinvestment Rate - 5.46% 41.82% 5.14% 15.43%
4 Year Average 16.96%
4 Year Median 10.44%

Calculation of Growth Rate Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24

Reinvestment Rate - 5.46% 41.82% 5.14% 15.43%
ROIC - 58.04% 47.33% 59.02% 68.37%
Intrinsic Growth - 3.17% 19.79% 3.03% 10.55%
4 Year Average 9.13%
4 Year Median 6.86%
 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD
NSE: BRITANNIA | BSE: 500825
DCF Valuation
Amounts in INR (Crs.) Mar-24A Mar-25E Mar-26E Mar-27E Mar-28E Mar-29E
EBIT 2,874 3,071 3,281 3,506 3,747 4,004
Tax Rate 26.68% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00%
NOPAT 2,107 2,149 2,297 2,454 2,623 2,803
Less: Reinvestment Rate 16.96% 29.77% 42.59% 55.40% 68.21% 68.21%
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) 1,750 1,509 1,319 1,095 834 891
Mid Year Convention - 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5
Discount Factor - 0.95 0.86 0.78 0.71 0.64
PV of FCFF - 1,437 1,138 856 591 572

Expected Growth 6.86%

Terminal Growth 6.00%
WACC 10.33% Sensitivity Analysis - Enterprise Value
WACC
Calculation of Terminal Value 18,610 9.33% 10.33% 12.00% 14.00%
FCFF*(1+g) 944 4.00% 16,316 14,000 11,414 9,445
WACC 10.33% 5.00% 19,141 15,871 12,484 10,071
Terminal Growth 6.00% 6.00% 23,663 18,608 13,911 10,853
Terminal Value 21,813 6.50% 27,123 20,512 14,819 11,323
Growth
Calculation of Equity Value per share
PV of FCFF 4,595
Terminal Value 21,813 Sensitivity Analysis - Equity Value Per Share
PV of Terminal Value 14,015 WACC
Enterprise Value 18,610 705 9.33% 10.33% 12.00% 14.00%
Add: Cash 446 4.00% 610 514 407 325
Less: Debt 2,065 5.00% 727 592 451 351
Equity Value 16,992 6.00% 915 705 510 383
Shares Outstanding 24 6.50% 1,059 784 548 403
Equity Value per share 705 Growth

Share Price 5455

Discount/Premium 7.7x
 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD
NSE: BRITANNIA | BSE: 500825

Comparable Company Valuation

Amounts in INR (Cr.)
Market Data Financials Valuation
Share Share Equity Enterprise
Company Ticker Net Debt Revenue EBITDA Net Profit EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA P/E
Price Outstanding Value Value
Britannia Industries BRITANNIA 5467 24 1,31,706 1,619 1,33,325 16,769 3,381 2,134 8.0x 39.4x 61.7x
Hindustan Unilever HINDUNILVR 2502 235 5,87,929 (6,075) 5,81,854 61,896 15,483 10,282 9.4x 37.6x 57.2x
Nestle India NESTLEIND 2567 96 2,47,496 (434) 2,47,061 24,394 5,963 3,933 10.1x 41.4x 62.9x
Varun Beverages VBL 1607 130 2,08,840 4,971 2,13,811 16,467 3,878 2,211 13.0x 55.1x 94.4x
Godrej Consumer GODREJCP 1396 102 1,42,778 2,675 1,45,453 14,096 3,214 (561) 10.3x 45.3x -
Dabur India DABUR 611 177 1,08,252 699 1,08,951 12,404 2,883 1,811 8.8x 37.8x 59.8x
High 13.0x 55.1x 94.4x
th
75 Percentile 10.3x 44.3x 62.9x
Average 9.9x 42.8x 67.2x
Median 9.8x 40.4x 61.7x
25th Percentile 8.9x 38.2x 59.8x
Low 8.0x 37.6x 57.2x

Britannia Industries Comparable Valuation EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA P/E

Implied Enterprise Value 1,63,739 1,36,706 1,33,325
Net Debt 1,619 1,619 1,619
Implied Equity Value 1,62,121 1,35,087 1,31,706
Shares Oustanding 24 24 24
Implied Value per share 6730 5608 5467
Source: screener.in Undervalued Undervalued Overvalued
 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD
(BRITANNIA | BSE code: 500825)
INR 5476
52 Week (High - INR 5725.00 & Low - 4347.70)

About the company:

Britannia Industries is one of Indias leading food companies with a 100 year legacy and annual revenues in excess of Rs.
9000 Cr. Britannia is among the most trusted food brands, and manufactures Indias favorite brands like Good Day, Tiger,
NutriChoice, Milk Bikis and Marie Gold which are household names in India. Britannias product portfolio includes Biscuits,
Bread, Cakes, Rusk, and Dairy products including Cheese, Beverages, Milk and Yoghurt.

Financial Summary:

Revenues (INR Crs.) Net Profit Margin (INR Crs.) Total Assets (INR Crs.)

2,171 2,142 9,212

16,301 16,769

14,136 1,776
13,136
1,365 8,439

7,915
7,763

2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024

Total Equity (INR CRs.) Net Profit Margin (%) Financial Leverage
2.8x
13.52% 13.32% 2.5x 2.5x
12.77%
3,975
3,738 2.0x
3,053 3,046 9.66%

2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024

Asset Turnover Ratio ROE (%) ROA (%)

1.9x
71.28%
25.73%
1.8x 1.8x 57.29% 22.44% 23.25%
44.69% 44.73% 17.59%
1.7x

2021 2022 2023 2024

2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024

Recent Updates:
• Britannia Industries reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 538.28 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2024, down 3.6% from
Rs 558.66 crore in the year-ago period. The company's total revenue stood at Rs 4,069.36 crore, up nearly 1% from the previous
year.
• Britannia's stock price has shown positive momentum in recent months. After hitting a record high of Rs 5,386 on December 29,
2023, the stock price declined but has since recovered, crossing the 5,000 level in May 2024.
• The company's board approved a final dividend of Rs 73.5 per share for FY2024. The board also fixed the date of the 105th Annual
General Meeting to be held on August 12, 2024.
 DuPont Analysis - Return on Equity & Return on Asset
Return on Equity (ROE)
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Net Profit 1,017 1,045 1,499 1,776 1,365 2,171 2,142
Average Shareholder's Equity 3,051 3,830 4,328 3,975 3,053 3,046 3,738
Return on Equity 33.32% 27.29% 34.63% 44.69% 44.73% 71.28% 57.29%

ROE - DuPont Equation

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Net Profit 1,017 1,045 1,499 1,776 1,365 2,171 2,142
Revenue 9,914 11,055 11,600 13,136 14,136 16,301 16,769
Net Profit Margin (A) 10.25% 9.45% 12.92% 13.52% 9.66% 13.32% 12.77%

Revenue 9,914 11,055 11,600 13,136 14,136 16,301 16,769

Average Total Assets 4,648 5,713 7,034 7,915 7,763 8,439 9,212
Asset Turnover Ratio (B) 2.1x 1.9x 1.6x 1.7x 1.8x 1.9x 1.8x

Average Total Assets 4,648 5,713 7,034 7,915 7,763 8,439 9,212
Average Shareholder's Equity 3,051 3,830 4,328 3,975 3,053 3,046 3,738
Financial Leverage Ratio ( C ) 1.5x 1.5x 1.6x 2.0x 2.5x 2.8x 2.5x

Return on Equity (A*B*C) 33.32% 27.29% 34.63% 44.69% 44.73% 71.28% 57.29%

Return on Asset (ROA)

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Net Profit 1,017 1,045 1,499 1,776 1,365 2,171 2,142
Average Total Assets 4,648 5,713 7,034 7,915 7,763 8,439 9,212
Return on Asset 21.87% 18.29% 21.31% 22.44% 17.59% 25.73% 23.25%

ROA - DuPont Equation

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Net Profit 1,017 1,045 1,499 1,776 1,365 2,171 2,142
Revenue 9,914 11,055 11,600 13,136 14,136 16,301 16,769
Net Profit Margin (A) 10.25% 9.45% 12.92% 13.52% 9.66% 13.32% 12.77%

Revenue 9,914 11,055 11,600 13,136 14,136 16,301 16,769

Average Total Assets 4,648 5,713 7,034 7,915 7,763 8,439 9,212
Asset Turnover Ratio (B) 2.1x 1.9x 1.6x 1.7x 1.8x 1.9x 1.8x

Return on Assets (A*B) 21.87% 18.29% 21.31% 22.44% 17.59% 25.73% 23.25%
DuPont Summary:
• The ROE of Britannia Industries has shown a significant upward trend over the analyzed period. Starting from 33.32% in 2018, it
has risen to 57.29% in 2024, with a peak of 71.28% in 2023, followed by a 13.99% decline in 2024.
• The Net Profit Margin of Britannia Industries has shown fluctuations over the years, but with an overall positive trajectory. Starting
at 10.25% in 2018, it reached its lowest point of 9.45% in 2019 before climbing to a high of 13.52% in 2021. After a dip to 9.66% in
2022, it has stabilized around 13% in recent years.
• In terms of asset utilization, Britannia Industries has experienced a gradual decline in its Asset Turnover Ratio. From a high of 4.8x
in 2018, the ratio has generally decreased, reaching 3.6x in 2024. Despite a slight decline in Asset Turnover Ratio, the company has
managed to improve its ROE through better profit margins and increased leverage.
• The Financial Leverage Ratio of Britannia Industries has shown a clear increasing trend. It remained constant at 0.7x from 2018 to
2020 but then began to rise, reaching 1.3x in 2024. This trend suggests that Britannia has increasingly relied on debt financing to
support its operations and growth, which has contributed to the improved ROE but also increased the company's financial risk.
• Revenue has shown consistent growth from INR 9,914 Cr in 2018 to INR 16,769 Cr in 2024 and The Net Profit of Britannia
Industries has generally followed an upward trajectory, albeit with some fluctuations. A significant leap was observed from INR
1,365 Cr in 2022 to INR 2,171 Cr in 2023. Although there was a slight decrease to INR 2,142 Cr in 2024.
• Return on Assets (ROA) shows a fluctuating trend, starting at 49.48% in 2018, dipping to 40.29% in 2019, recovering to 48.05% in
2020, then declining to 45.38% in 2021 and 34.14% in 2022, before surging to a peak of 57.70% in 2023, and finally moderating to
45.80% in 2024.

Disclaimer: This report is made as part of educational assignment and is meant for educational purpose only. The author of the report is not
liable for any losses due to actions taken basis on this report. It is advisable to consult SBEI registered reserach analyst before making any
investments.
Altman's Z Score Analysis
Financial Summary:
Working Capital/Total Assets Retained Earnings/Total Assets EBIT/Total Assets
13.13% 31.67%
12.23% 4.67% 4.09% 27.96%
0.06% 26.31%
24.58%

2021 2022 2023 2024

4.78%
3.10%

2021 2022 2023 2024 -25.22%

2021 2022 2023 2024

Market Cap./Long term liability Sales/Total Assets Final Score

37
187.82%
184.81%
5729.51% 27
174.32% 24
22
4116.29%
3113.10% 3473.73%
164.20%

2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024

Altman's Z Score Analysis:

• The Altman's Z-Score has shown a significant decline from 288 in 2019 to 22 in 2022, which indicates a deteriorating financial h ealth
and an increased risk of bankruptcy for the company. Although there is a slight improvement in the Z-Score from 2022 to 2024, the
scores remain at low levels, suggesting that the company is still facing ongoing financial concerns.
• The Working Capital to Total Assets ratio has been consistently declining from 18.88% in 2018 to 3.10% in 2024.
• The Retained Earnings to Total Assets ratio has decreased significantly from 13.81% in 2018 to -25.22% in 2021, which suggests a
substantial loss in the company's retained earnings during this period. Despite a slight improvement in the ratio from 2022 to 2024,
it remains at low levels, indicating limited profitability and reinvestment capacity for the company.
• The EBIT to Total Assets ratio has shown a general upward trend from 22.52% in 2020 to 31.67% in 2024. This positive trend in the
ratio suggests an improvement in the company's operational efficiency and profitability in recent years.
• The Sales to Total Assets ratio has remained relatively stable over the years, with values ranging from 148.15% to 191.10%. This
stability in the ratio suggests that the company has been able to generate consistent sales relative to its asset base.
 Altman's Z Score Analysis Calculation

Working Capital / Total Assets

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Working Capital 979 1,143 1,129 979 988 447 281
Total Assets 5,188 6,238 7,830 8,000 7,527 9,351 9,074
Working Capital / Total Assets (A) 18.88% 18.33% 14.43% 12.23% 13.13% 4.78% 3.10%

Reatined Earnings / Total Assets

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Reatined Earnings 716 685 657 (2,018) 4 437 371
Total Assets 5,188 6,238 7,830 8,000 7,527 9,351 9,074
Reatined Earnings / Total Assets (B) 13.81% 10.98% 8.39% -25.22% 0.06% 4.67% 4.09%

EBIT / Total Assets

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
EBIT 1,372 1,460 1,764 2,237 1,850 2,460 2,874
Total Assets 5,188 6,238 7,830 8,000 7,527 9,351 9,074
EBIT / Total Assets ( C ) 26.45% 23.41% 22.52% 27.96% 24.58% 26.31% 31.67%

Market Cap. / Long term liability

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Market Cap. 59,672 74,145 64,669 87,327 77,242 1,04,121 1,18,312
Long term Liability 201 156 1,538 2,122 2,481 2,997 2,065
Market Cap. / Long term liability (D) 29731.96% 47522.47% 4205.88% 4116.29% 3113.10% 3473.73% 5729.51%

Sales / Total Assets

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Sales 9,914 11,055 11,600 13,136 14,136 16,301 16,769
Total Assets 5,188 6,238 7,830 8,000 7,527 9,351 9,074
Sales / Total Assets (E) 191.10% 177.22% 148.15% 164.20% 187.82% 174.32% 184.81%

Altman's Z Score
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Final Score 182 288 28 27 22 24 37
Financial Stability Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong

Disclaimer: This report is made as part of educational assignment and is meant for educational purpose only. The author of the report is not liable
for any losses due to actions taken basis on this report. It is advisable to consult SBEI registered reserach analyst before making any investments
 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD
NSE: BRITANNIA | BSE: 500825
Value at Risk - Historical Approach
Date Adj Close Returns Sorted Returns Calculation of Value at Risk - Historical Approach
24-09-1999 82 -0.7136 0.4502
27-05-2013 285 0.4212 0.1581 Mean 0.11%
08-09-2010 201 0.9983 0.1368 Std. Deviation 1.89%
04-12-2008 100 -0.7610 0.1162 Min -27.99%
11-06-2014 421 -0.8030 0.1066 Max 45.02%
24-03-2020 2135 -0.1657 0.1061 CMP 5455
07-04-2020 2559 43.7190 0.1058
01-03-1999 57 1.3723 0.1009 Percentile Confidence VAR Stock Price VAR (INR)
01-04-1998 24 -0.1328 0.0999 5.00% 95.00% -2.43% 5587 -132
09-06-1998 28 2.4494 0.0998 1.00% 99.00% -4.43% 5697 -242
02-02-1996 8 -0.9501 0.0955 0.50% 99.50% -5.43% 5751 -296
20-01-2011 161 -0.9376 0.0955
20-09-2019 2588 0.8472 0.0935
08-08-2016 1401 156.2966 0.0928
09-02-1996 9 -0.1628 0.0926
27-08-1996 11 -0.8978 0.0898
19-12-2008 104 2.9638 0.0893
15-04-1998 26 -0.9935 0.0889
07-11-2022 4069 0.6765 0.0881
31-03-2020 2427 22.8207 0.0870
29-09-2005 102 1.4566 0.0864
05-05-2000 41 2.0992 0.0849
03-03-1997 13 -0.4050 0.0831
19-03-1998 22 -0.2147 0.0827
06-07-1998 29 1.5460 0.0814
16-05-1996 11 -0.7500 0.0811
08-01-1999 45 -0.0741 0.0800
11-01-1999 49 -0.1375 0.0800
23-09-1999 56 -0.1825 0.0800
31-03-1999 69 0.0393 0.0800
08-06-1999 66 0.3402 0.0800
21-01-1999 49 -0.1804 0.0800
07-01-2000 60 -0.1681 0.0800
 BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD
NSE: BRITANNIA | BSE: 500825

Value at Risk - Monte Carlo Simulation

Sorted Simulated
Date Adj Close Returns Replication
Returns Returns Calculation of Value at Risk - Monte Carlo Simulation
24-09-1999 82 -0.7136 0.4502 1 -0.0252
27-05-2013 285 0.4212 0.1581 2 0.0522 Historical Approach
08-09-2010 201 0.9983 0.1368 3 0.0062 Mean 0.11%
04-12-2008 100 -0.7610 0.1162 4 0.0016 Std. Deviation 1.89%
11-06-2014 421 -0.8030 0.1066 5 -0.0118 Min -27.99%
24-03-2020 2135 -0.1657 0.1061 6 -0.0093 Max 45.02%
07-04-2020 2559 43.7190 0.1058 7 0.0081 CMP 5455
01-03-1999 57 1.3723 0.1009 8 -0.0038
01-04-1998 24 -0.1328 0.0999 9 -0.0146 Monte Carlo Simulation
09-06-1998 28 2.4494 0.0998 10 0.0195 Mean 0.12%
02-02-1996 8 -0.9501 0.0955 11 0.0074 Std. Deviation 1.87%
20-01-2011 161 -0.9376 0.0955 12 0.0183 Min -8.06%
20-09-2019 2588 0.8472 0.0935 13 -0.0029 Max 7.60%
08-08-2016 1401 156.2966 0.0928 14 -0.0188 CMP 5455
09-02-1996 9 -0.1628 0.0926 15 -0.0028
27-08-1996 11 -0.8978 0.0898 16 0.0187 Percentile Confidence VAR Stock Price VAR (INR)
19-12-2008 104 2.9638 0.0893 17 -0.0032 5.00% 95.00% -3.01% 5619 -164
15-04-1998 26 -0.9935 0.0889 18 0.0120 1.00% 99.00% -4.09% 5678 -223
07-11-2022 4069 0.6765 0.0881 19 -0.0207 0.50% 99.50% -4.61% 5706 -251
31-03-2020 2427 22.8207 0.0870 20 -0.0308
29-09-2005 102 1.4566 0.0864 21 0.0143
05-05-2000 41 2.0992 0.0849 22 0.0156
03-03-1997 13 -0.4050 0.0831 23 -0.0005
19-03-1998 22 -0.2147 0.0827 24 0.0211
06-07-1998 29 1.5460 0.0814 25 0.0012
16-05-1996 11 -0.7500 0.0811 26 0.0373
08-01-1999 45 -0.0741 0.0800 27 -0.0052
11-01-1999 49 -0.1375 0.0800 28 0.0026
23-09-1999 56 -0.1825 0.0800 29 0.0023
31-03-1999 69 0.0393 0.0800 30 -0.0141
08-06-1999 66 0.3402 0.0800 31 0.0237
21-01-1999 49 -0.1804 0.0800 32 -0.0231
07-01-2000 60 -0.1681 0.0800 33 -0.0094
16-04-1999 73 0.2123 0.0798 34 0.0175
17-03-1999 60 0.5200 0.0786 35 0.0025