SOC247: SOCIAL STATISTIC II: STATISTIC OF REGRESSION & CORRELATION (3

UNITS)
INSTRUCTORS: J.L OYEFARA/ K. EBORKA

Table of Contents
1). The Notion of Probability
2). Probability and Mathematics of Counting (Cont.)
3). Mutually Exclusive Events
4). Independent Events
5). Dependent Events
6). Permutation & Combination
7). Permutation & Combination of Like Objects

Date: Wednesday, 8th May, 2024.

Lecturer: Dr Eborka.
● Descriptive Statistics - First Semester
● Inferential Statistics - Second Semester

The Notion Of Probability

Probability has to do with the issue of “chance” or “likelihood.”
Probability is a measure of the likelihood of occurrence of an event. Since we can't be absolutely
certain of the occurrence of a certain event(s), we tend to base most of our decisions on
likelihood.
* It's a measure of random phenomenon.
In a situation where several different outcomes are possible, we define the probability of any
particular outcome as a Fraction. So, if the possible outcomes are A, B, C, D, the probability of
“A” will be;

Number of outcomes →A/Total number of outcomes

Examples:
1). In the toss of a coin, the probability of obtaining a Head P(H) in a single toss is defined as
P(H) = ½ = 0.50.

2). What is the probability of obtaining 8 tails?

P (8) T = ½ × ½ × ½ × ½ × ½ × ½ × ½ × ½ = (½)^8
½^8 = 1/256.

3). If you have a pack of 52 stack of cards, and there are 4 different sets of cards in this stack; (I).
Clubs
(II). Hearts
(III). Spades
(IV). Ace Diamonds
Each set of cards consists of 13 types:
[2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack (J), King (K), Queen (Q), Ace (A)]
* For the 52 cards, there will be four 2s.
What's the probability of drawing a King from this Stack?
4/52 = 1/13.

4). The probability of an Independent event using the toss coin experiment, the probability of an
event A occurring followed by an event B occurring defined by : P <A and then B> : P <A> × P
<B>

5). In a stack of 52 well shuffled card, the probability of drawing a King at the first draw and a
Queen on the second draw, assuming that the King is replaced after the first draw and the cards
are reshuffled, it becomes;
King (K) = 4/52 and Queen = P (A) = 4/52
4/52 × 4/52
II). Suppose the King was not replaced and a second draw was done to select a Queen. This is
equal to 4/52 × 4/51

6). If you have a coin and toss it twice, what is the probability of obtaining two tails of 2
consecutive tosses?
P (T) × (PT) = ½ × ½ = ¼ (0.25).

Concepts
1). Experiments: The concept of experiment in statistics means the process of obtaining raw data.
For example, when a coin is tossed, you are conducting an experiment and the possible outcome
is either the head or the tail, and if “A” is a set of throwing a coin, the element of the set is head
or tail i.e A = <H, T>.

2). Outcomes: The results that are actually obtained when an experiment is performed are
referred to as the outcome of the experiment.

3). Sample space: The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes in a
random experiment.
E.g. If you roll a fair dice, there are 6 possible outcomes. In Statistical terms, the symbol (S) is
use to represent a sample space or
Representation for a Sample Space of dice = S = {1,2,3,5,6}

4). Sample Point: The individual points of a Sample Space are the possible Individual outcomes,
and are referred to as Sample Points. For example, if you threw a coin twice, the Sample Space
is;
S = {HH, HT, TT, TH}
These individual outcomes represent a Sample Point.
So, the total Sample Point is 4.
– A Sample Space is called Discrete if it contains a finite number of a Sample Point, and it's
called Continuous if it contains an infinite number of Sample Points.
* By Discrete, we mean a variable/value that assumes only a finite or countable number of
values between any 2 fixed points, and continuous if it contains a countable number.

5). Events: An event can be defined as a subset of Sample Space. For instance, if you are looking
for an index of people who are graduates among 200 people, and you find 18 of them. The 18
people represent the event while 200 people represent the Sample Space.
A). Probability of an event doesn't occur =
1 - P(A)
B). Probability of an event not occuring = P(A)

I).

Age Group 18 23 21

No. Of Student 10 22 14

If you were to choose a student randomly in this group of students, what is the probability that
the student you will pick is 21 years of age?
∆ Total number of students = 10 + 22 + 14
Answer: 14/46 = 0.304.

II). Probability of not picking 21 years old

= 32/46 = 0.6965 (0.696)
Or 1 - 0.304 = 0.696.

III). Either 23 years or 21 years

23 years = 22/46 = 0.478
21 years = 14/46 = 0.304
0.478 + 0.304 = 0.782.
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Date: Wednesday, 15th May, 2024.
Lecturer: Dr Eborka.

Probability and Mathematics of Counting (Cont.)

Examples:
The hospital record indicates that maternity patients

Number of Days Frequency

3 15

4 32

5 56

6 19

7 5

132

What's the probability that;

I). A patient stayed exactly 5 days.

II). A patient stayed less than 6 days.
III). A patient stayed at most 4 days.
IV). A patient stayed at least 5 days.

Solutions:
I). P(5) = 56/127 = 0.44.
II). P(3) = 15/127 + P(4) = 32/127 + P(5) = 56/127 = 103/127.
III). 15/127 + 32/127 = 47/137.
IV). 56/127 + 19/127 + 5/127 = 80/127.
Mutually Exclusive Events
Events are said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one cannot affect the occurrence of
others. So, if A & B are two events, their intersection under mutually exclusive events becomes
Zero i.e A & B = 0 . So, we can say events A & B are disjoint - which means that they cannot
occur together.

Examples:
1). A research student attended three (3) different interviews to defend a research proposal for a
Grant.
I). What is the probability of passing all interviews or failing all interviews?
II). What's the probability of passing the interviews more than failing them?
III). A union B = A U B
IV). A intercession B = A n B

Solutions:
X = P, F
No of interviews (N) = 3
Sample Space = (PPP, PPF, PFP, FPP, FFP, FFF, PFF, FPF) = 8.

I). Probability of passing all or failing all = P (A) = {PPP, FFF)

= 2/8 = ¼ = 0.25.

II). Probability of passing more than failing:

P (B) = {PPP, PPF, PFP, FPP}
= 4/8 = ⅓ = 0.5.

III). A U B = {PPP, FFF, PPF, PFP, FPP}

= ⅝ = 0.63.

IV). A n B = {PPP} = ⅛ = 0.13.

If we say that mutually exclusive events are disjoint i.e if A and B are disjoint, this means that
probability of A and probability of
A U B = P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B)
⅝ = 2/8 + 4/8 - P(A n B)
P(A n B) = 2/8 + 4/8 - ⅝
= ⅛.

2). The purchase section of a certain company

Departments

Type of Sales Purchase Production Acc Maintenan Total

Order ce

Consumabl 10 12 4 8 4 38
es

Equipment 1 3 9 1 1 15

Special 0 0 4 1 2 7

11 15 17 10 7 60

From this table, an error was detected in one of the orders required. Find the probability the error
was;
I). Consumables
II). Not for consumables
III). The error came from maintenance department
IV). The error is from production
V). The error came from maintenance or production
VI). The error came from neither maintenance nor production
VII). Was from an equipment order of purchase

Solutions:
I). Consumables= 38/60 = 0.63.
II). 1 - 38/60 = 0.37.
III). 7/60 = 0.117
IV). 17/60 = 0.283
V). Maintenance + Production = 0.117 + 0.283 = 0.4.
VI). 1 - 0.4 = 0.6.
VII). 3/60 = 0.05.

Independent Events
Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one occurrence has no inference on
the occurrence or non-occurrence of other, i.e the probability of;
AnB
P(A n B) = P(A). P(B)
In other words, A and B are Independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is equal
to the product of the probability that they occur separately.

1).
I). If a Coin or a Die are thrown appear on a Coin and on a Die are independable
The probability of occuring
II). Probability of a 6 occurrence
III). Probability of A and B means

Solutions:
I). ½
II). ⅙
III). ½ × ⅙

2). IF a group of students consists of 5 male students and 3 female students and a student is
chosen at random with replacement. What is the probability of;
I). Choosing a male
II). Choosing a female
III). Choosing a male and a female student.

Solutions:
I). ⅝
II). ⅜
III). ⅝ × ⅜ = 15/64 = 0.235.

3). Three students A, B, C aimed at a target together. They have the probability of 0.4, 0.5 and
0.9 respectively of getting the target required.

I). Find the probability only the first student got the target
II). The first and second student got the target
III). None of the student got the target
IV). Exactly two of the students got the target
V). At least one of the students got the target.

Solutions:
I). A, B¹, C¹
P {A, B¹, C¹}; The complement means B and C didn't occur.
P {A n B¹ n C¹} = 0.4 × 0.5 × 0.9
= 0.18.
II). P (A n B n C¹) = 0.4 × 0.5 × 1 - 0.9
= 0.4 × 0.5 × 0.1
= 0.02.
III). 1 - 0.4 × 1 - 0.5 × 0.9
= 0.27.
IV). P (A n B n C) or
P (A n B n C) or P (A¹ n B n C)
= (0.4) × (0.5) × (0.9) + (0.4) × (0.5) × (0.1) + (0.6) × (0.5) × (0.1)
= 0.18 + 0.02 + 0.03 = 0.23.
V). 1 - 0.27
= 0.73.

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Date: Wednesday, 22nd May, 2024.
Lecturer: Dr Kennedy Eborka.

Dependent Events
Two events are said to be dependent if the occurrence of one influences/affects the
occurrence of the other. So, when two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is
equal to the probability of both P(A and B) = P(A) . P(B/A).

Example:
1). A student has a collection of 30 CDs. Out of these 30 CDs, 5 are rock music. So, if 2 CDs are
selected at random, find the probability that both CDs are rock music.

Solution:
P(C1 and C2) = P(C1) . P(C2/C1)
= 5/30 . 4/29 = 20/870 = 2/87.

2). If there are two (2) boxes, and Box 1 contains two (2) red balls, and one (1) blue ball. Box 2
contains three (3) blue balls and one (1) red ball. Then a coin is tossed. If the coin falls head up,
Box 1 is selected, and a ball is drawn from Box 1. If the coin falls tail up, Box 2 is selected, and
a ball is drawn from Box 2. Now, find the probability of selecting a red ball.

Solution:
Box 1 = 2 red balls and 1 blue ball.
Box 2 = 3 blue balls and 1 red ball.
I). Box 1;
Probability of selecting a head tail = ½ . ⅔ = 2/6 (red)
½ . ⅓ = ⅙ (blue).

II). Box 2;
½ . ¼ = ⅛ (red)
½ . ¾ = ⅜ (blue).
Since red ball can be selected from box 1 and 2;
P(Red) = 2/6 + ⅛ = 8 + 3/24 = 11/24.

Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is used to determine the probability that an event A will occur on the
condition that another event B has occurred. The probability that the second Event B occurs
given that the first event A has occurred, can be found by dividing the probability that both
events occurred by the probability that the first event has occurred.

Example:
1). A Box contains black pens and white pens. So, a person selects two pens without
replacement. If the probability of selecting a black pen and a white pen is equal to 15/56, and the
probability of selecting a black pen on the first draw is ⅜, find the probability of selecting a
white pen on the second draw, given that the first pen selected was the black pen.

Solution:
P(B/A) = P(A and B)/P(A)
= 15/56/⅜
15/56 ÷ ⅜
15/56 × 8/3 = 5/7.
Permutation & Combination
A permutation is an arrangement of objects in a definite order, referred to as Ordered Sample.
While Combination is a selection of objects without regard to order, called Unordered Sample.

E.g. If we have these items - A, B, C, D - to select from, AB is one selection (combination of two
items), other possible combinations of these items are AC, AD, BC, and CD. Now, AB is a
combination of two items for which there are two separate permutations AB & BA. ABC is also
a combination of 3 items for which there are 6 separate permutations - ABC, ACB, BAC, DCA,
CAB, CBA. Rearranging the items within a combination does not give a different combination,
but rearranging them within a permutation gives a different permutation.

Factorial Notation

A factorial gives an idea of possible listing of combination and permutation in a given situation.
The factorial of a positive whole number is denoted by an exclamation mark (!), and can be
expressed as follow;
6! = 6×5×4×3×2×1

Factorial Numbers
n1 = n(n - 1) (n - 2)....
o! = 1! = 1.

An n! factorial is spoken of as the product of n with each of the positive counting numbers less
than n.
As Statistics students, we may want to know how many different arrangements are possible from
the letters A, B, and C. Or how many different arrangements are possible by taking the letters A,
B, C two at a time. To get this, we have to look at the number of different permutations of n
distinct items taking out at a time. The number of permutations of r ( < n) from n distinct object
is called “n permutation r” and denoted as nPr = n!/(n - r)!
Example:
1). How many permutations of 3 letters can be formed from the letter A, B, C, D and E? Since
the permutation consists of 3 letters, 3 events are involved - Event A1, A2, and A3.
Therefore, the 1st letter can be any of the 5 letters. Then the 2nd letter can be any of the
remaining 4 letters. And the 3rd will be 3 ways.
A1 = 5 ways
A2 = 4 ways
A3 = 3 ways

Solution:
nPr = n!/(n - r)!
5P3 = 5!/(5 - 3)! = 5!/2!
=5×4×3×2×1/2×1 = 120/2
= 60.

2). 2 names are to be drawn from 30 students in a class for the position of class rep and assistant
class rep. How many different ways can this be done?

Solution:
n = 30, r = 2
30Pr = 30!/(30 - 2)! = 30!/28!
30×29×28×1/28×1 = 870.

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Date: Wednesday, June 5th, 2024.
Lecturer: Dr. Eborka.
Permutation & Combination of Like Objects
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