CE 4255-Urban Transportation

Planning and Management

Mode Choice
Dr. Farzana Rahman
Professor,
Department of Civil Engineering,
United International University
Fall 2023
Mode Choice
 In this phase of travel-demand forecasting, we
analyze people’s decisions regarding mode of travel:

 Auto
 Bus
 Train, etc.

 In the flow-chart of the travel demand forecasting

process, mode choice comes after trip distribution.

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Mode Choice
 However, mode choice analysis can be done at various point in
the forecasting process- during trip generation, after trip
generation but before trip distribution, and after trip distribution
phase.

 The most common point is after trip distribution, because the

information on where the trips are going allows the mode choice
relationship to compare the alternative transportation services
competing for users.

 Before we can predict how travel will be split among the modes
available to the users, we must analyze the factors that the affect
the choices that people make.

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Mode Choice
 Three factors affect the mode choice of the travelers:

 The characteristics of the trip maker (e.g., family

income, number of autos available, family size,
residential density)

 The characteristics of the trip (e.g., trip distance,

time of travel)

 The characteristics of the transportation system

(e.g., riding time, excess time)
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Mode Choice

● The mode choice models can be classified into three

broad categories:

● Direct Generation models (during trip

generation)

● Trip End models (after trip generation, before

trip distribution)

● Trip Interchange models (after trip distribution)

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Mode Choice

Direct Generation Models

In direct generation models, transit trips

are generated directly, by estimating either
total person trips or auto driver trips.

These mode choice models are

developed during the trip generation phase.

This approach is generally appropriate to

smaller urban areas without major transit
services.
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Mode Choice
Direct Generation Models

Direct generation works in a two mode situation:

generation of auto trips and transit trips
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Mode Choice
Trip End Models

 Trip end models are

developed using trip
generation models and
are based on land use
and socioeconomic
characteristics of the
zone.
 They do not, however,
incorporate the quality of
High income, 2+ auto ownership,
available transport transit usage is zero.
services.

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 Mode Choice

Trip Interchange Models

Trip Interchange mode

choice models are
developed after trip
distribution phase.
They incorporate system level of
service variables such as
●Relative travel time
●Relative travel cost
●Economic status of traveler
●Relative travel service 9
Mode Choice
Trip Interchange
Models

 Look at this mode

choice model:
When auto in-vehicle
time is 15 min less than
transit in-vehicle time;
auto usage costs 25
cents more than transit
usage; excess time for
auto is 3 min more than
transit, then transit
usage is 37%.
Ref: FHWA/UMTA (1977)
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Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models

 This model is an
example of a family of
models using a logit
formulation.

 The term logit refers to

the S-shaped logit curve
used to fit the model
data.
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Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models

The logit formulation is a share model (as

was the gravity model) that divides the
person trips among the various modes
depending on each mode’s relative
desirability (utility) for any given trip.
Modes are said to be more desirable if they
are faster, cheaper, or have other more
favorable features than competitive modes.
The better a mode is, the more utility it has
for the potential traveler.
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Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models
Utility and Disutility Functions

Utilityfunction: measures satisfaction

derived from choices
Disutility function: represents generalized
costs of each choice
Usually expressed as the linear weighted
sum of the independent variables of their
transformation
V = a0 + a1X1 + a2X2 + ….. + arXr

V: utility derived from choice

Xr: attributes
ar: model parameters
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Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models

 The Logit Model of mode choice is expressed

as follows:
e V (i )

P n
e
i
V (r )

r 1

Where,
Pi = probability of using mode i
V(i) = utility of mode i
V(r) = utility of mode r
n = number of modes in consideration
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Mode Choice

Trip Interchange Models

EXAMPLE

The calibrated utility functions for auto and transit travel

are:
Auto: Va = -0.3 – 0.04X – 0.1Y - 0.03C Transit: Vt = -0.04X
– 0.1Y – 0.03C
Where,
Vi = utility function of mode i
X = in-vehicle travel time (min)
Y = out-of-vehicle travel time (min)
C = ratio of cost of travel/income (cents/$) 15
Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models

 A traffic zone has the following characteristics:

Auto Travel Transit Travel

In-vehicle time (min) 15 40
Out-of-vehicle time (min) 5 10
Travel cost (cents) 300 75

What is the probability that a person with

an income of $10,000 will travel by transit?
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Mode Choice
Trip Interchange Models
SOLUTION
 The utility of using auto:
Va = -0.3 – 0.04 (15) – 0.1 (5) - 0.03 (300/10000)= -1.4
 The utility of using transit:
Vt = -0.04 (40) – 0.1 (10) – 0.03 (300/10000) = -2.6

Then, the probability of the trip maker using transit is

e e
Vt 2.6

P   0.23 or
t
e eVa
e e Vt 1.4  2.6

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 Independence of Irrelevant
Alternatives (IIA) Property
Note that for two modes in the choice set, say I and k:

(Pit/Pkt) = exp(Vit)/exp(V
ktkt kt) = exp(Vit-Vkt
ktk)t ktkt

I.e., relative probability of choosing mode i vs. mode j depends only on the
utilities of i and j, independent of what other alternatives are in the choice set.

Problems with this?

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IIA, cont’d
If the IIA assumption is not valid and make another
distributional assumption for the error term, which will
generate a new model with different characteristics.

The two most common alternatives to the logit

model are:

1.Nested logit (can handle complex decision

structures).
2.Probit (normal error terms; very general model,
but difficult to work with). 51