BASIC PROBABILITY

Probability is a measure of how likely something is to happen. It ranges from 0 (impossible)

to 1 (certain). For example, if you flip a fair coin, there is a 50% chance it will land on heads
and a 50% chance it will land on tails. This is because there are two possible outcomes, and
each one is equally likely. Probability helps us understand and predict the chances of different
events occurring.
It’s used in everyday life, like when weather forecasts predict the chance of rain, or in games
and sports to figure out the odds of winning. Understanding probability helps us make better
decisions by knowing what to expect.
Experiment, Outcome, and Event in Probability (Concepts)
 Experiment: In probability, an experiment is any process or action that can
produce a set of outcomes. It is a procedure that is repeated under the same conditions
to observe the possible results. Experiments can be as simple as flipping a coin or
rolling a die, or they can be more complex, like conducting a survey, running a
scientific trial, or observing traffic patterns at an intersection. The key feature of an
experiment is that it must be repeatable, meaning it can be performed multiple times
under the same conditions, and the outcomes must be well-defined and measurable.
This repeatability allows us to gather data and analyze the frequency of different
outcomes, which is essential for calculating probabilities and making predictions.
Example: Rolling a six-sided die.
When you roll a six-sided die, you perform an experiment. The process of rolling the
die under the same conditions repeatedly is what defines the experiment. The key
characteristics of this experiment are that it is repeatable and the outcomes are well-
defined and measurable.

 Outcome: An outcome is a possible result of an experiment. It is the basic unit that

cannot be broken down any further. For example, when flipping a coin, the possible
outcomes are "heads" or "tails." Each individual result that can occur from the
experiment is considered an outcome. When rolling a six-sided die, the possible
outcomes are the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Outcomes are used to define the sample
space of an experiment, which is the set of all possible outcomes. Understanding
outcomes is crucial for identifying events and calculating probabilities. In more
complex experiments, such as clinical trials, outcomes might include various health
 responses to a treatment, which helps researchers determine the effectiveness of the
treatment.
Example: The result of rolling the die.
In the experiment of rolling a six-sided die, the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and
6. Each of these numbers represents a single outcome of the experiment. These
outcomes are the basic results that cannot be broken down further and are mutually
exclusive—only one can occur at a time.
 Event: An event is a set of one or more outcomes from an experiment. It is a subset
of the sample space. Events can be simple or compound. A simple event consists of a
single outcome, such as rolling a 4 on a die. A compound event includes multiple
outcomes, such as rolling an even number (which includes rolling a 2, 4, or 6). Events
can be used to describe more complex scenarios and are the main focus when
calculating probabilities. For example, in a deck of cards, an event could be drawing a
red card, which includes the outcomes of drawing any heart or diamond. Events can
also be defined using specific conditions, like drawing a face card or a card greater
than 7. Understanding events allows us to group outcomes in meaningful ways and
assess the likelihood of various scenarios occurring. This is fundamental in fields like
risk assessment, where we need to evaluate the probability of different events that
could impact a project or decision.
Example: Rolling an even number.
In the experiment of rolling a six-sided die, an event could be "rolling an even
number." This event includes the outcomes of rolling a 2, 4, or 6. Another example of
an event could be "rolling a number greater than 4," which includes the outcomes of
rolling a 5 or 6. These events are subsets of the sample space (which consists of all
possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6) and help us calculate the probability of specific
scenarios. For instance, the probability of the event "rolling an even number" is 3/6 or
1/2, since there are three favorable outcomes (2, 4, 6) out of six possible outcomes.

Formula for Probability

The probability formula is defined as the possibility of an event to happen is equal to the ratio
of the number of favourable outcomes and the total number of outcomes.

Probability of event to happen P(E) = Number of favourable outcomes/Total Number of outcomes

Solved Examples
1) There are 6 pillows in a bed, 3 are red, 2 are yellow and 1 is blue. What is the
probability of picking a yellow pillow?
Ans: The probability is equal to the number of yellow pillows in the bed divided by the total
number of pillows, i.e. 2/6 = 1/3.
2) There is a container full of coloured bottles, red, blue, green and orange. Some of the
bottles are picked out and displaced. Sumit did this 1000 times and got the following
results:
 No. of blue bottles picked out: 300
 No. of red bottles: 200
 No. of green bottles: 450
 No. of orange bottles: 50
a) What is the probability that Sumit will pick a green bottle?
Ans: For every 1000 bottles picked out, 450 are green.
Therefore, P(green) = 450/1000 = 0.45
b) If there are 100 bottles in the container, how many of them are likely to be green?
Ans: The experiment implies that 450 out of 1000 bottles are green.
Therefore, out of 100 bottles, 45 are green.

Applications of Probability
Probability finds applications in various fields and everyday situations.
 Weather Forecasting: Meteorologists rely on probability to provide accurate weather
forecasts, crucial for planning daily activities and mitigating risks from severe
weather events. By analyzing historical data, satellite imagery, and computer models,
meteorologists assign probabilities to different weather outcomes. For example, they
might predict a 70% chance of rain in a specific region based on observed
atmospheric conditions and past patterns. This information guides decisions ranging
from agricultural planning to emergency preparedness, helping communities brace for
potential impacts like flooding or droughts.
 Gaming and Gambling: Probability governs outcomes in gaming and gambling,
influencing both player strategies and casino operations. In games like roulette, the
probability of the ball landing on a specific number or color determines payout odds.
For instance, the probability of landing on red or black in European roulette is nearly
50%, except for the green zero. This understanding allows players to make informed
 betting decisions based on risk and potential reward. Casinos use probability to set
house edges and ensure profitability over time, balancing risk and reward for both
players and operators.
 Insurance and Risk Assessment: Insurance companies use probability to assess risks
associated with policyholders and determine appropriate premiums. Accountant
analyze vast datasets to estimate the likelihood of future events such as accidents,
illnesses, or property damage. For example, life insurance premiums are based on
probabilities derived from factors like age, health status, and lifestyle habits. By
quantifying risks accurately, insurers can price policies competitively while
maintaining financial stability to meet future claims obligations.
 Finance and Stock Markets: Probability models support financial analysis and
decision-making in stock markets and investment portfolios. Investors use probability
distributions to assess the potential returns and risks of various assets. For example,
the Black-Scholes model uses probabilities to price options contracts based on factors
like underlying asset volatility and time until expiration. Monte Carlo simulations
simulate thousands of possible market scenarios to measure portfolio performance
under different conditions. These tools help investors manage risk, optimize asset
allocation, and strategize for long-term financial goals.
 Medicine and Healthcare: Probability is essential in medical research, diagnosis,
and treatment planning. Clinical trials employ probabilistic methods to evaluate the
effectiveness and safety of new drugs or therapies. Doctors use probabilistic models to
assess disease risks, predict patient outcomes, and personalize treatment plans based
on genetic factors and diagnostic test results. For instance, risk calculators estimate
the likelihood of developing cardiovascular diseases based on factors such as
cholesterol levels, blood pressure, and lifestyle choices. Probability-based approaches
improve healthcare decision-making, enhancing patient outcomes and resource
allocation.
 Sports and Gaming Industry: Probability models are integral to sports analytics,
aiding teams, analysts, and fans in predicting game outcomes and player performance.
Statistical metrics like expected goals (xG) in soccer or player efficiency ratings in
basketball quantify the likelihood of scoring opportunities and player contributions.
For example, sports analysts use historical data and predictive models to forecast
match outcomes and inform strategic decisions for teams and coaches. Fans engage in
 fantasy sports leagues using probabilistic forecasts to draft players and compete based
on expected performances.
 Quality Control and Manufacturing: Probability supports quality assurance in
manufacturing processes, ensuring consistent product standards and operational
efficiency. Statistical process control (SPC) methods monitor production outputs and
detect deviations from desired quality metrics. Probability distributions assess the
likelihood of defects or variations in product specifications, guiding corrective actions
to improve manufacturing processes. For instance, in automotive manufacturing,
probabilistic models analyze component reliability and durability to enhance vehicle
performance and customer satisfaction.
 Risk Management and Decision-Making: Businesses employ probability to
quantify risks, make informed decisions, and optimize strategies across diverse
operational domains. Risk management frameworks assess the likelihood and
potential impact of risks, enabling organizations to prioritize mitigation efforts and
safeguard against uncertainties. For example, project managers use probabilistic risk
analysis to evaluate project timelines and budget allocations, anticipating potential
delays or cost overruns. Probability-based decision-making enhances resilience,
fosters innovation, and supports sustainable growth in dynamic business
environments.

Types of Probability
 Classical Probability: Classical probability is based on the assumption of equally
likely outcomes within a sample space. It's often used in situations where we can
enumerate all possible outcomes and assume each outcome has an equal chance of
occurring. For example, when rolling a fair six-sided die, there are 6 possible
outcomes (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), and each outcome has an equal probability of 1/6 {1}{6}61
or approximately 16.7%. Another example is drawing a card from a standard deck of
52 cards, where each card has an equal probability of 1/52 {1}{52}521 if drawn
randomly.
 Empirical Probability: Empirical probability is based on observed data and
experimentation. It involves conducting experiments or gathering data to determine
the likelihood of an event occurring. For example, flipping a coin 100 times and
observing that it lands on heads 48 times gives an empirical probability of
48/100=0.48 {48}{100}. Similarly, if you record the number of times a specific event
 happens over a period, like the number of rainy days in a month, you can calculate the
empirical probability based on the observed data.
 Subjective Probability: Subjective probability is based on personal judgment,
opinions, or beliefs about the likelihood of an event happening. It varies from person
to person and is influenced by individual experiences, knowledge, and biases. For
example, if someone says there's a "good chance" it will rain tomorrow based on their
experience living in a certain climate, they're expressing a subjective probability.
Another example could be a sports fan's belief that their team has a 70% chance of
winning a game based on their assessment of the team's recent performance and
opponents.