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 CHAPTER 6 EXERCISES

1. (a) The following graph shows the results of a simulation of the model with lambda=3
and w=0.25, starting with 2 blue and 5 red divisions. Red wins the battle in 39 hours with
2.2 divisions remaining.

b
l
1
u
e

0
0 1 2 3 4 5
red
(b) Repeated simulations as in part (a) but varying w yield the following results.

Weather Winning Hours of Divisions

(w) side combat remaining
0.1 Red 102 1.3
0.2 Red 49 2.0
0.25 Red 39 2.2
0.5 Red 20 2.7
0.75 Red 13 2.9
0.9 Red 11 3.0

(c) Red benefits from good weather, blue benefits from bad weather. We should expect
red to attack during good weather.

(d) Our conclusions from part (c) are still valid. Red would prefer to attack in good
weather. For example, in the scenario where 5 red divisions attack 2 blue divisions, and
the blue divisions have an equipment and training advantadge which makes one blue troop
as effective as 5 red troops, weather plays a deciding role. Red wins the war if the
weather is good, and blue wins if the weather is bad.
 Case of lambda = 1.5

Weather Winning Hours of Divisions

(w) side combat remaining
0.1 Red 58 3.3
0.2 Red 34 3.6
0.25 Red 29 3.7
0.5 Red 16 3.9
0.75 Red 11 4.0
0.9 Red 9 4.0

Case of lambda = 2.0

Weather Winning Hours of Divisions

(w) side combat remaining
0.1 Red 66 2.7
0.2 Red 38 3.1
0.25 Red 31 3.3
0.5 Red 17 3.6
0.75 Red 12 3.7
0.9 Red 10 3.7

Case of lambda = 4.0

Weather Winning Hours of Divisions

(w) side combat remaining
0.1 Blue 107 0.5
0.2 Red 113 0.4
0.25 Red 66 0.8
0.5 Red 26 1.7
0.75 Red 16 2.0
0.9 Red 13 2.1

Case of lambda = 5.0

Weather Winning Hours of Divisions

(w) side combat remaining
0.1 Blue 61 0.9
0.2 Blue 46 0.8
0.25 Blue 43 0.7
0.5 Blue 36 0.4
0.75 Red 28 0.6
0.9 Red 20 0.9
2. (a) We used a spreadsheet implementation of the algorithm in Figure 6.2 with x1=Red
and x2=Blue to obtain the following results. Some lines are omitted.

n x1 x2 lambda
0 3 2 2
1 2.74 1.82
2 2.508132 1.658066
3 2.300738916 1.511866158
4 2.114768207 1.379437166
5 1.947652592 1.259112806
6 1.797218168 1.149468605
7 1.661612849 1.049278467
8 1.539250057 0.957480352
9 1.428764005 0.87314884
10 1.328973884 0.795473022
11 1.238854953 0.723738514
12 1.157515031 0.657312731
13 1.084175265 0.595632732
22 0.695240263 0.185026569
23 0.675451227 0.149621366
24 0.659478471 0.115343495

(b) Next we continue the simulation but add reinforcements. In the case where we wait 1
day for reinforcements, Red wins after 17 hours with 2.9 divisions remaining.

n x1 x2 lambda
0 3 2 2
12 1.157515031 0.657312731
13 3.084175265 0.595632732
14 3.006241634 0.43223879
17 2.898358935 -0.023656879

In the case where we wait 2 days for reinforcements, Red wins after 26 hours with 2.6
units remaining.

n x1 x2 lambda
0 3 2 2
24 0.659478471 0.115343495
25 2.647183456 0.081989238
26 2.636814126 -0.051455137

(c) In the case where Red commits all 5 divisions at the beginning of the battle, Red wins
after 9 hours with 3.7 divisions remaining. See Table I on p. 160 of the text. This is the
best option for Red.
(d) Regardless of the magnitude of Blue's weapons effectiveness advantadge, it is optimal
for Red to attack full force on day one. Holding troops back in reserve only makes Red
do worse.

Advantadge Reinforcements Hours of Winning Remaining

(lambda) arrive on day combat side forces
1.0 0 8 red 4.4
1.0 1 15 red 4.1
1.0 2 16 red 2.1
1.5 0 9 red 4.1
1.5 1 16 red 3.5
1.5 2 19 red 1.5
3.0 0 10 red 3.0
3.0 1 29 red 0.8
3.0 2 13 blue 1.0
5.0 0 17 red 1.0
5.0 1 7 blue 1.4
5.0 2 7 blue 1.4
6.0 0 13 blue 0.6
6.0 1 5 blue 1.5
6.0 2 5 blue 1.5

3. (a) Using a spreadsheet implementation of the algorithm in figure 6.2 we see that in the
case where Blue calls for an immediate nuclear strike, Blue wins in 9 hours with 0.9
divisions remaining. In the conventional warfare scenario, Red won in 10 hours with 3.0
divisions remaining. So the nuclear strategy is to Blue's advantadge in this case.
n x1 x2 lambda
0 1.5 1.3 3
1 1.27575 1.21525
2 1.070207172 1.143710724
8 0.083924597 0.933595178
9 -0.057289954 0.929007191

(b) We multiply x1 by 0.3 and x2 by 0.65 at hour 6 and continue the simulation. Now
x1=Red wins in 16 hours with 0.7 divisions remaining. This is better than the
conventional scenario, but not as good as the immediate strike.
n x1 x2 lambda
0 5 2 3
1 4.55 1.7
5 3.425449827 0.779073247
6 0.980567608 0.386397293
15 0.673912692 0.01897323
16 0.670874913 -0.014786336
(c) A nuclear strike can be very effective. In this case, it makes the difference between
winning and losing the war. If tactical nuclear weapons are used, they should be used
immediately in order to produce the maximum benefit to Blue.

(d) For any value of the weapons effectiveness advantadge parameter lambda, we find
that the optimal strategy for Blue is to attack immediately with tactical nuclear weapons.
Advantadge Nuclear weapons Hours of Winning Remaining
(lambda) used on hour combat side forces
1.0 0 26 red 0.7
1.0 6 10 red 1.3
1.0 never 8 red 4.4
1.5 0 27 blue 0.4
1.5 6 11 red 1.2
1.5 never 9 red 4.1
2.0 0 16 blue 0.7
2.0 6 12 red 1.0
2.0 never 9 red 3.7
5.0 0 5 blue 1.1
5.0 6 12 blue 0.4
5.0 never 17 red 1.0
6.0 0 4 blue 1.1
6.0 6 9 blue 0.5
6.0 never 13 blue 0.6

4. (a) A spreadsheet implementation of the discrete time simulation yields the following
results. Recall that n is the number of 15 second time steps, x1 is the current velocity
(m/sec), and x2 is the previous velocity (m/sec). In this case, docking is achieved after 15
steps or 225 seconds.
n x1 x2 k
0 50 50 0.02
1 35 50
2 23 35
3 14.9 23
4 9.62 14.9
5 6.206 9.62
6 4.0028 6.206
7 2.58164 4.0028
8 1.665032 2.58164
9 1.0738616 1.665032
10 0.69258608 1.0738616
11 0.446682704 0.69258608
12 0.288087555 0.446682704
13 0.185801774 0.288087555
14 0.119832663 0.185801774
15 0.077285953 0.119832663
(b) We repeat the simulation of part (a) for each value of k and tabulate the results.
According to these results, the optimal value is k = 0.03 which results in a successful
docking in 6 steps or 90 seconds.

k Steps to dock Time to dock (sec)

0.01 36 345
0.02 15 225
0.03 6 90
0.04 8 120
0.05 8 120
0.06 11 165
0.07 12 180
0.08 14 210
0.09 15 225
0.10 17 255
0.11 22 330
0.12 25 375
0.13 31 465
0.14 37 555
0.15 46 690
0.16 58 870
0.17 82 1230
0.18 100+ 1500+
0.19 100+ 1500+
0.20 never docks infinity

(c) We repeat the simulation exercise of part (b) but change the initial velocity to 25
m/sec. In this case the optimal value is again k = 0.03 which results in a successful
docking in 5 steps or 75 seconds. We did not tabulate the cases k>0.10 since the time to
dock was much larger than the optimal.

k Steps to dock Time to dock (sec)

0.01 32 480
0.02 13 195
0.03 5 75
0.04 6 90
0.05 7 105
0.06 9 135
0.07 10 150
0.08 12 180
0.09 13 195
0.10 15 225

(d) We repeat the simulation exercise of part (b) but change the initial velocity to 100
m/sec. In this case the optimal value is again k = 0.03 which results in a successful
docking in 8 steps or 120 seconds. We did not tabulate the cases k>0.10 since the time to
dock was much larger than the optimal. On the basis of our sensitivity analysis we
conclude that a value of k = 0.03 is optimal for this control parameter. In other words, we
should apply an acceleration in the opposite direction as our velocity, and 3% as large,
each 15 seconds.

k Steps to dock Time to dock (sec)

0.01 40 600
0.02 16 240
0.03 8 120
0.04 9 135
0.05 10 150
0.06 11 165
0.07 13 195
0.08 16 240
0.09 17 255
0.10 19 285

5. (a) See exercise 10, chapter 4 for the complete description of this model. We let x1 =
number of currently infected persons and x2 = number of immune persons. We model this
problem as a discrete time dynamical system Delta x = F(x) where x = (x1, x2) and F =
(f1, f2) with
f1(x1,x2) = (40/18*70,000)*x1*(100,000-x1-x2) - (1/3)*x1
f2(x1,x2) =(1/3)*x1
Our state space is S = {(x1, x2): x1 >=0, x2 >=0}, and our initial condition is x1 = 18 and
x2 = 30,000. We use a spreadsheet implementation of the algorithm in figure 6.2 to obtain
the following results. Some lines are omitted. Eventually the entire population has been
infected and becomes immune.

week x1 x2
0 18 30000
1 51.98971429 30006
2 150.0967978 30023.3299
3 432.7865971 30073.36217
4 1243.318284 30217.62437
5 3534.144352 30632.0638
6 9742.322383 31810.11192
7 24571.54913 35057.55271
8 47872.31871 43248.06909
9 45409.72439 59205.50866
10 23619.92862 74342.08345
39 0.228974136 99937.09938
40 0.153104985 99937.1757

(b) The maximum number of infected persons is about 48,000 on week eight. See above.
(c,d) We investigate the sensitivity of the maximum number of infected persons to the
number I infected on week one. Note that I effects our dynamical system equations as
well as our initial condition. In our new, generalized model we have
f1(x1,x2) = (40/I*70,000)*x1*(100,000-x1-x2) - (1/3)*x1
f2(x1,x2) =(1/3)*x1
with initial condition x1 = I and x2 = 30,000. This maximum varies significantly with I. If
the 18 cases reported on week 1 was underestimated by a factor of two, then the
maximum number of infected persons will be about half what we currently expect.
I Maximum
10 69104.06079
15 56850.06283
20 48954.92825
25 38728.39584
30 33752.68515
35 27932.75422
40 24047.28027

6. (a) See exercise 4 of chapter 4 for the complete model. We let x = Blue whales and
y = Fin whales and we write d(x,y)/dt = F(x,y) where F = (f1, f2) and
f1(x,y) = 0.05*x - alpha*x*y
f2(x,y) = 0.08*y - alpha*x*y
The state space is the set S consisting of all (x,y) for which x >= 0 and y >= 0. We
assume that alpha=10^(-7) and we use the initial conditions x = 5,000 and y = 70,000.
The results of the simulation are shown below. The Blue whales go extinct and the Fin
whale population just keeps increasing.
DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION
12000 7000000
10000 6000000
8000 5000000
4000000
x 6000 y
3000000
4000 2000000
2000 1000000
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
n n
(b, c) Essentially the same behavior occurs in each case.

(d) There is not much qualitative change in the behavior of the fin whale population. It
always continues to grow. There is also no change in the fact that the blue whales are
eventually extinct. But the time it takes for the blue whale population to become extinct is
quite sensitive to alpha.
 alpha time to extinction (years)
10^(-5) 10
10^(-6) 25
10^(-7) 60
10^(-8) 90
10^(-9) 120

DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION

alpha = 10^(-5) alpha = 10^(-6)
5000 5000
4000 4000
3000 3000
x x
2000 2000
1000 1000
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
n n
DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION
alpha = 10^(-8) alpha = 10^(-9)
50000 200000
40000
150000
30000
x 20000 x 100000
10000
50000
0
-10000 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
n n
7. (a) See exercise 5 of chapter 4 for the complete model. Let x1 = Blue whales and
x2 = Fin whales and let dx1/dt = f1(x1,x2) and dx2/dt = f2(x1,x2) where
f1(x1, x2) = 0.05*x1*(x1-3000)/(x1+3000)*(1-x1/150,000) - 10^(-8)*x1*x2
f2(x1, x2) = 0.08*x2*(x2-15,000)/(x2+15,000)*(1-x2/400,000) - 10^(-8)*x1*x2
The state space is the set S consisting of all (x1,x2) for which x1 >= 0 and x2 >= 0.
Starting at x1 = 5,000 and x2 = 70,000 the blue whale population grows back to around
140,000 blue whales in about 200 years, and the fin whale population settles down to
around 400,000 fin whales in about 100 years. The graphs below summarize the results
of our simulation. They were prepared using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet
implementation of the simple simulation method of Section 6.2, equivalent to the Euler
method of Section 6.3 with step size h=1.

160 450
140 400
350
120
Blue (1000s)

Fin (1000s) 300

100
250
80
200
60 150
40 100
20 50
0 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 0 50 100 150 200
t (years) t (years)

(b) There are two distinct cases depending on the initial population of the Blue whale. If
the Blue whale population starts below 4,000 then the behavior is much different than the
case considered in part (a). The Fin whale population grows back rapidly to its
equilibrium value of around 400,000 and the Blue whale population becomes extinct.
The case where we start with x1(0) = 2,000 Blue whales is shown below. The time it
takes for the Blue whale to become extinct is quite sensitive to the initial number of Blue
whales.

Initial Blue whale population time to extinction (years)

2,000 100
3,000 200
2.5 400
350
2
300
Blue (1000s)

Fin (1000s)

1.5 250
200
1 150
100
0.5
50
0 0
0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200
t (years) t (years)

If we start with 4,000 or more Blue whales then the Blue whale population does not
become extinct. Instead the Blue whales grow back to their equilibrium value of near
150,000. We conclude that our model is quite sensitive to the initial population of Blue
whales, which makes sense since our model was constructed to include the effects of a
minimum viable population.

Initial Blue whale population time to grow back (years)

4,000 300
5,000 200
6,000 200
8,000 200

(c.) In all cases, the Fin whale population grows back rapidly to its equilibrium value of
around 400,000 and the Blue whale population also grows back. The time it takes for the
Blue whale to grow back is quite sensitive to the intrinsic growth rate of the Blue whales.

Intrinsic growth rate (%) time to extinction (years)

0.02 1000
0.03 500
0.04 300
0.06 200
0.07 200

(d) There are two distinct cases depending on the minimum viable population M for the
Blue whale. If we M <= 4000 then the behavior is like the case considered in part (a).
Instead the Blue whales grow back to their equilibrium value of near 150,000. We
conclude that our model is sensitive to the minimum viable population of Blue whales.

Minimum viable population time to grow back (years)

1000 200
2000 200
4000 300

If M >= 5000 then the Fin whale population grows back rapidly to its equilibrium value
of around 400,000 and the Blue whale population becomes extinct. The time it takes for
the Blue whale to become extinct is sensitive to the minimum viable population of the
Blue whales.

Minimum viable population time to extinction (years)

5000 200
6000 150
8. (a) See exercise 6 in chapter 4 for the complete model. Let x = Blue whales and y =
Fin whales and write d(x,y)/dt = F(x,y) where F = (f1, f2) and
f1(x, y) = 0.05*x*(1-x/150000) - 10^(-8)*x*y - 10^(-5)*E*x
f2(x, y) = 0.08*y*(1-y/400000) - 10^(-8)*x*y - 10^(-5)*E*y
The state space is the set S={(x, y): x >= 0 and y >= 0}. Our initial condition is x(0) =
5,000 and y(0) = 70,000 and we assume that E = 3,000 boat-days. We use a spreadsheet
to simulate the behavior of this dynamical system as in section 6.2 of the text. Some lines
are omitted. Eventually both species increase to around x=52,600 blue whales and
y=247,000 fin whales. It takes around 100 years for the fin whale population to grow
back, and around 300 years for the blue whales, which are more severely depleted and
have a lower intrinsic growth rate.
n x y E
0 5000 70000 3000
1 5088.166667 72516.5
2 5177.610426 75086.90669
3 5268.339044 77709.7556
4 5360.360013 80383.38814
5 5453.680554 83105.95089
10 5940.011064 97374.41773
20 7013.578163 128007.5693
50 11076.72132 206313.0089
100 20630.5365 245149.3537
200 41465.93119 248083.6598
300 50263.60821 247542.4757
400 52166.88457 247402.6375
500 52507.80541 247376.5432
600 52566.67762 247371.999
700 52576.77899 247371.2181
800 52578.51028 247371.0843
900 52578.80695 247371.0613
1000 52578.85779 247371.0574

(b) We repeat part (a) but now we assume that E=6000 boat-days per year. Now the fin
whale population increases in about 100 years to around 100,000 fin whales, while the
blue whales become extinct in a few centuries.
n x y E
0 5000 70000 6000
1 4938.166667 70416.5
2 4877.179219 70829.65602
3 4817.023979 71239.42662
4 4757.687545 71645.77235
5 4699.156791 72048.65578
10 4418.146875 74009.96711
20 3909.705184 77656.97289
50 2728.26245 86342.62428
 100 1522.311712 94482.38458
200 489.6120263 99197.60172
300 160.4351427 99882.10036
400 52.90858986 99980.82129
500 17.48592392 99996.29156
600 5.783129629 99999.12313
700 1.913113831 99999.75634
800 0.632926092 99999.92555
900 0.209399935 99999.97619
1000 0.069279356 99999.99223

(c) We repeat the above simulation for several different values of E and take x(1000) to
be the equilibrium value for blue whales. We judge that the blues are becoming extinct if
x(1000)<100. On this basis we conclude that the blues will become extinct if E>5,220
boat-days per year.

(d) We repeat part (c) for some different values of alpha, the parameter which measures
the extent of interspecies competition. We tabulate the largest value of E for which both
the Blue whales and Fin whales can coexist. This value is quite sensitive to alpha.
alpha Emax
10^(-9) 5 ,340
10^(-8) 5 ,220
10^(-7) 2 ,820
10^(-6) 0
10 ^(-5) 0

9. (a) We used a spreadsheet implementation of the simple simulation technique of

Section 6.2 to obtain the following results. The harvest rate in BWU at 300 years is taken
as the long-term harvest rate. We find the rate to be 3782.221196 or about 3780 BWU
per year.

n x y BWU E
0 5000 70000 1200 3000
1 5056.666667 72485 1238.975
2 5112.623459 75021.78171 1278.705429 LT Harvest
3 5167.807143 77608.86143 1319.167136 3782.221196
4 5222.154446 80244.57067 1360.333193
5 5275.602282 82927.05602 1402.173909
6 5328.087985 85654.28048 1444.656847
7 5379.54955 88424.026 1487.746876
8 5429.92588 91233.89748 1531.406239

(b) We repeat the limulation in each of the cases E = 500, 1,000, 1,500, ..., 7,500, boat-
days per year. We find that 4000 boat days per year yields the maximum long term yield
of about 4000 BWU per year.
 n x y BWU E
0 5000 70000 1600 4000
1 5006.666667 71785 1635.966667
2 5012.437406 73589.8424 1672.294344 LT Harvest
3 5017.30049 75413.45667 1708.961153 4008.832932
4 5021.245196 77254.71985 1745.944205
5 5024.261858 79112.4588 1783.21965
6 5026.341903 80985.45276 1820.762731
7 5027.477893 82872.4361 1858.547838
8 5027.66356 84772.10147 1896.548572
9 5026.893835 86683.10314 1934.737816
10 5025.164877 88604.06051 1973.087805

(c) It seems that the blue whales will go extinct in a few centuries and the fin whale
population will stabilize at about 200,000 whales. Since there are less fins than this now,
we wonder whether this is really the way whalers are behaving.

DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION

6000 200000
5000 180000
4000 160000
140000
x 3000 y
120000
2000 100000
1000 80000
0 60000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
n n
(d) As stated in part (c), this would cause the Blue whale to become extinct.

10. (a) We used a spreadsheet implementation of the model to produce the following
results. The total discounted REVENUE converges as n increases. We took the total
discounted revenue to be the total after 300 years. In the case of 3000 boat-days we
obtain 158354728.2 or approximately $158 billion.

n x y REVENUE E BWU
0 5000 70000 12000000 3000 1200
1 5056.666667 72485 23150775 1238.975
2 5112.623459 75021.78171 33508288.98 Total REV 1278.705429
3 5167.807143 77608.86143 43125017.4 158354728.2 1319.167136
4 5222.154446 80244.57067 52050163.48 1360.333193
5 5275.602282 82927.05602 60329860.19 1402.173909
6 5328.087985 85654.28048 68007358.99 1444.656847
7 5379.54955 88424.026 75123206.18 1487.746876
8 5429.92588 91233.89748 81715407.89 1531.406239
9 5479.157036 94081.32822 87819584.32 1575.594634
 10 5527.184485 96963.58673 93469114.17 1620.269335

(b) The highest yield was at 7500 boat-days, which resulted in a total discounted revenue
of 272841399.2 or about $273 billion.

n x y REVENUE E BWU
0 5000 70000 30000000 7500 3000
1 4831.666667 69335 56661937.5 2962.4375
2 4669.592972 68686.70619 80362302.24 Total REV 2925.970955
3 4513.510885 68054.49311 101434461.4 272841399.2 2890.556808
4 4363.16605 67437.7663 120173685.7 2856.15369
5 4218.316942 66835.96045 136841578.6 2822.722287
6 4078.734093 66248.5376 151669979.4 2790.225217
7 3944.199366 65674.98553 164864406.3 2758.62691
8 3814.505289 65114.81618 176607093.4 2727.893504
9 3689.454426 64567.56433 187059670.1 2697.992744
10 3568.858798 64032.78617 196365527.7 2668.893891

(c) A few more simulations as in part (b) seem to indicate that total discounted revenue
keeps increasing as level of effort increases. Thus the whalers will try to maximize their
level of effort. For example if the level of effort is 10,000 boat-days per year, the total
discounted revenue is $305 billion. In this case the behavior of the populations of blue
whales (x) and fin whales (y) are shown below. Both species will become extinct within a
few centuries. This model seems more likely to describe the real behavior of whalers than
the model in problem 9, since whalers do seem to have depleted both populations of
whales. If we assume E=7,500 then blue whales go extinct and fins decline to 25,000.

DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION

DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION
5000 70000
60000
4000 50000
3000 40000
x y
30000
2000
20000
1000 10000
0 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
n n
(d) The general behavior remains the same. Total discounted revenue is monotone
increasing as a function of level of effort, and so whalers will harvest as many whales as
the can as fast as they can, resulting in the eventual extinction of both species. Since there
is an economic incentive for the whalers to extinct the whales, outside intervention is
necessary in order to save the whales. It is interesting to observe that, when we take into
account the discount rate, it is economically optimal for the whalers to put themselves out
of business. But after all, the stock of whales can never increase by as much as 10% per
year, which is how fast the profit from harvesting will appreciate if we invest it in some
other enterprise (assuming a 10% discount rate).

11. (a) As in exercise 7 of chapter 4 we let

x1 = number of blue whales
x2 = number of fin whales
The dynamical system is
x1' = f1(x1,x2)
x2' = f2(x1,x2),
where
f1(x1,x2) = .05x1(1-x1/150,000)+(.02/500) x1 x2
f2(x1,x2) = .25 x2(1-x2/500)-(.10/150000) x1 x2.
The state space is
S = {(x1,x2): x1>= 0, x2>= 0}.
Starting at any initial condition x1>0, x2>0, and using a computer simulation based on the
simple simulation techniques of section 6.2, the state variables x1 and x2 eventually
stabilize at their equilibrium levels. For example we have

n x1 x2
0 50000 500
1 52666.66667 483.3333333
2 55393.62963 470.3907407
3 58182.75906 459.9836011
4 61034.01047 451.3449681
5 63945.88992 443.960141
6 66915.73585 437.4735886
(intermediate steps deleted)
493 181034.4828 258.6206897
494 181034.4828 258.6206897
495 181034.4828 258.6206897
496 181034.4828 258.6206897
497 181034.4828 258.6206897
498 181034.4828 258.6206897
499 181034.4828 258.6206897
500 181034.4828 258.6206897

(b) We repeat the simulation of part (a) starting at

x1(0) = 0.80 (181034.4828) = 144827.5862
x2(0) = 0.20 (258.6206897) = 51.72413793.
The following graphs show the results of this simulation. Both species grow back to
equilibrium in about 100 years. The whale population increases gradually over this period.
The krill population actually overshoots the equilibrium and then it comes back down.
 185000 300
180000
w 175000 250
170000 k
h
a 165000 r 200
i
l 160000 l 150
e 155000
s l
150000 100
145000
140000 50
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
years years

(c) We repeat the simulation of part (a) starting at

x1(0) = 0.05 (181034.4828) = 9051.724095
x2(0) = 258.6206897.
The following graphs show the results of this simulation. Again it takes about 100 years
for both populations to return to their equilibrium levels. The whale population grows
slowly and steadily. The krill population grows rapidly to a level near the environmental
carrying capacity for krill in the absence of whales (500 tons/acre), and then as the whale
population grows the krill population is again forced down to its equilibrium level.

200000 500

w 150000 450
k
h
r 400
a
100000 i
l
l 350
e
s 50000 l
300

0 250
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
years years
(d) To be definite we measure the time T it takes for the blue whale population to grow
back to 180,000 whales. We repeat the simulation of part (c) starting at p = 1, 3, 5, 7, and
10 percent of the equilibrium value of 181034.4828 whales to obtain the results tabulated
below. There is not too much sensitivity to this parameter. In every case it takes about
100 years for the whales to grow back. Numerically we approximate S(T,p) = -0.1.

x1(0) p T
1810.34 0.01 133
5431.03 0.03 117
9051.72 0.05 109
12672.41 0.07 104
18103.45 0.10 98

12. (a) We assume d(x,y)=F(x,y) where F=(f1,f2) and

f1(x, y) = 0.10*x-(0.10/10000)*x^2-(0.05/10000)*x*y
f2(x, y) = 0.25*y-(0.25/6000)*y^2-(0.125/6000)*x*y
on the state space S={(x,y):x>=0 and y>=0} starting at x(0)=100 tons/acre of hardwoods
and y(0)=1500 tons/acre of softwoods. We use a spreadsheet implementation of the
simulation technique in section 6.2 of the text. Some lines are omitted. On p. 121
equation (2) in the text we calculated that the equilibrium point is at (9333,1333). The
hardwoods increase to (0.9)*9333=8400 in about 100 years. The softwoods overshoot
the equilibrium and then start back down. They come back down to (1.1)*1333=1467 in
about 150 years.
n x y
0 100 1500
1 109.15 1778.125
2 118.9754511 2086.87418
3 129.4900106 2421.959923
4 140.7032369 2776.504084
5 152.6222711 3141.284001
10 223.2407272 4750.592156
20 439.0361206 5738.715955
50 2546.091487 4979.097908
75 6178.030154 3370.748499
100 8372.7694 2157.477294
125 9032.582288 1653.02917
150 9224.62208 1461.858243

(b) After 63 years there are 4407 tons/acre of hardwoods and 4187 tons/acre of
softwoods. At this point the hardwoods are increasing by 154 tons/acre per year, the
maximum rate. This number is f1(x,y).

(c) After 63 years the value of the forest timber is increasing at the fastest rate. In units
of one ton/acre of softwood the rate is 549 per year, i.e. this is the value of V=4*f1(x,y) +
f2(x,y) at this point, and this is the maximum of this quantity.

13. (a) See exercise 12 above. We compute A=V/n where V=4*f1(x,y) + f2(x,y) and n is
time in years. The units are in the value of one ton/acre of softwood. The maximum
occurs at n=75 years. So this model suggests that we should clear-cut in intervals of 75
years.
DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION
600
550
500
450
400
A
350
300
250
200
150
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
n
(b) If we only plant hardwoods then it is optimal to clear-cut on intervals of 55 years.
This also produces about 50% higher value than in part (a). Note that the highest value
occurs after one year, but our model is not really valid over such a short range. The new
saplings are not as valuable as older trees.
DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION
900
800
700
600
A
500
400
300
200
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
n
(c) If we only plant softwoods then it is optimal to clear-cut on intervals of 20 years. The
value here is the lowest of the three options considered.
DISCRETE TIME SIMULATION
250

200

A 150

100

50
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
n
(d) We do not really know how much one ton/acre of softwoods is worth, or how many
acres in the forest tract. Suppose that one ton of softwood will generate P dollars of
profit for the company. The best use that the company can make of the land under the
clear-cutting scheme is to clear-cut every 55 years, and replant only hardwoods. This will
generate 600*P dollars per year per acre. Suppose that the company can sell the land for
a price of Q dollars per acre, and that the company can put the money to another use
which will net a return of R% per year. Then the company should sell the land if
(R/100)*Q exceeds 600*P.

14. (a) See exercise 5 in chapter 4 for the complete model. Let x = Blue whales and y =
Fin whales and write d(x, y)/dt = F(x,y) where F = (f1, f2) and
f1(x1, x2) = 0.05*x1*(x1-3000)/(x1+3000)*(1-x1/150,000) - 10^(-8)*x1*x2
f2(x1, x2) = 0.08*x2*(x2-15,000)/(x2+15,000)*(1-x2/400,000) - 10^(-8)*x1*x2
The state space is the set S consisting of all (x1,x2) for which x1 >= 0 and x2 >= 0.
Starting at x1 = 5,000 and x2 = 70,000 the blue whale population grows back to around
140,000 blue whales in about 200 years, and the fin whale population settles down to
around 400,000 fin whales in about 100 years. The graphs below summarize the results
of our simulation. They were prepared using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet
implementation of the Euler method of Section 6.3 with step size h=0.5. The picture are
more or less indistinguishable from the results of Exercise 6.7 using the simple
simulation method of Section 6.2, evidence that h=1.0 is small enough for this problem.
160 400
140 350
120 300
Blue (1000s)

Fin (1000s)

100 250
80 200
60 150
40 100
20 50
0 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 0 50 100 150 200
t (years) t (years)

(b, c, d) For most initial the solution curve tends towards the stable equilibrium near
(140,000, 400,000) so that both species coexist. For initial values of Blue or Fin whales
near or below the minimum viable population, that species goes extinct.
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 GLOSSARY OF WORDS
USED IN TEXT OF THIS VOLUME
Accelerated. Quickened; hurried.
Acquiesced. Agreed to.
Admonished. Warned; notified to be careful, or concerning an event.
Affirmed. Proven; shown that the statement was true.
Alternative. Either one or the other.
Anointing. The rite of applying oil for the purpose of setting apart an individual for a certain
purpose.
Aphasia. The disease which causes loss of memory.
Appellation. The term used to designate a name of a person.
Archeological. Relating to the science of antiquities.
Arsenal. A store house of weapons and ammunition.
Arteries. The ducts in the body which carry the blood from the heart.
Averting. The act of preventing; keeping from doing things.
Bacterial. Pertaining to the infection of the blood or system by poisonous germs.
Cavalcade. A parade; originally a troop of horsemen.
Cessation. The act of quitting or stopping.
Cementing. Bringing together; to cause to adhere.
Circulatory. The term applied to anything which has free movement.
Circulation. Applied to the movement of the blood through the arteries and veins.
Coveted. Wished for; usually applied to a wrongful desire to take something from another.
Climatic. Pertaining to the seasons or the weather.
Characterized. Named; designated.
Cohesion. Attracted; sticking together.
Consternation. Awe; fear; afraid of consequences.
Consecrated. Set apart for a purpose or a use.
Coagulated. To curdle or form into a clot.
Confederate. An ally; a friend in the same cause.
Concord. In agreement with. Having the same feelings.
Congenial. Friendly feeling; pleasant relations.
Congested. To collect in a mass; an unhealthy accumulation.
Cowered. Subdued; made to feel fear.
Cooperative. The joining together for a mutual aid or encouragement.
Concerted. Acting together.
Coalition. The term applied to the uniting of various parties to effect a purpose in concert.
Deference. Showing obedience, or willingness; to yield.
Delectable. Pleasant; agreeable; satisfactory.
Detour. Going around; making a sweeping movement about a certain point.
Detached. Taken away from; separated from others.
Decomposition. To go back into its original elements.
Derange. Out of order; not in proper condition.
Desist. To stop; to quit.
Depicted. Explained, either by words or pictures.
Depleted. To reduce; to lessen; to take away from.
Dissecting. To cut apart or to pieces.
Disorganize. To make disorderly; to badly arrange.
Diplomatic. The term used to designate the science of conducting negotiations wisely.
Discerned. Noticed; observed.
Diagnosed. The course of a disease noted and discovered.
Exuberance. Elated; exceedingly happy.
Eluding. To avoid; to get away from.
Encounter. To meet; to come into contact with.
Enveloping. A term applied to a military movement, which has reference to a force surrounding
or encircling another.
Extract. To take out of; to obtain the essence.
Execution. To perform; to carry out.
Exacted. To demand of; to require some particular thing.
Facilitate. To hurry up; speedily doing a thing.
Faction. A small party or portion of a main body or people.
Gesticulate. Bodily motions which indicate excitement, or a desire to impart information.
Gratification. Satisfaction over the outcome; agreeable feeling.
Gruesome. An object which excites loathsome feelings.
Groin. The fold or crease where the thigh joins the abdomen.
Guttural. Of or pertaining to the throat.
Hazardous. Involving danger, risk or loss.
Hemorrhages. Discharge of blood from a wounded blood vessel.
Hilarity. Being jubilant; happy; joyous.
Imperious. In a haughty manner.
Immeasurably. Beyond measure; a large amount or quantity.
Impression. An effect produced.
Initiative. To start; to make the first effort.
Instinct. A mental knowledge which precedes actual information.
Intuitively. Knowing a thing without being directly told.
Injunction. To warn; to advise concerning.
Inflamed. The term applied to a portion of the body where the blood by congestion causes
redness. Also exciting another to do a certain thing.
Infection. To communicate a thing or a disease to another.
Incautiously. Without much care; or in an unwise manner.
Intimately. Closely associated with.
Inaction. Quiet; not vigorous.
Injection. To insert into; to place within.
Interred. Buried.
Invariable. The same; without any change.
Invasion. To enter; to come into.
Incumbent. Necessary; desirable.
Inaccessible. Not easily gotten at; difficult to approach.
Insisted. To continuing a request.
Intervening. Placing between; something interposed.
Incantation. The saying or singing of magical words, in a religious ceremony.
Intercept. To go between; that which is cut off.
Infinite. Without end; continuous.
Inventory. To list; to take stock or account of.
Indignant. Anger or scorn aroused by a wrong.
Isolation. Left alone; without company.
Jargon. Confused; unintelligible speech.
Limitation. A small amount; a definite portion or part.
Malignant. Having or exhibiting extreme viciousness.
Modified. Changed to suit; newly arranged.
Momentary. For the time being only.
Numerically. Judged by numbers.
Nutriment. Substances necessary to sustain life.
Obliterate. To wipe out; to extinguish.
Obeisance. To bow to; acknowledgment of superiority.
Obnoxious. Unsavory; not pleasant; objectionable.
Parley. To talk with; conference.
Paralysis. A species of disease, wherein the motor nerves are deranged and made useless.
Pantomimic. A show wherein the features and actions are designed to describe or display words
or intentions.
Perplexities. Difficulties not easily surmounted in the mind.
Peremptory. Determined order; decision without delay.
Perceptible. Noticeable: easily seen.
Perceived. Something readily noticed.
Physique. Pertaining to the outlines of the human form.
Physical. Relating to the characteristics of the body.
Portable. That which may be moved.
Presumption. That which is judged from a certain act or thing.
Proximity. Close to; very near.
Prediction. Stating what will happen as a consequence, or in the future.
Privation. Being denied what is necessary for comfort or convenience.
Pronounced. Very evident; something that is plain.
Precaution. Taking care; the act of making sure.
Protracted. Stretching out; continuing for some time.
Putrefaction. Matter which is in a state of decomposition, or being disorganized.
Recess. A space cut out of material. Also an interim.
Refrain. To keep from; to avoid.
Reluctantly. Not willingly; drawing back.
Restraining. Holding back; to keep from.
Reciprocate. To repay; to do an act in exchange for another.
Reconnoiter. To examine, or make preliminary survey of in military operations.
Recreation. To put in its former condition.
Reinstalled. To put in the same condition it was designed to be placed; to set up again.
Reversing. In the opposite direction.
Reconciliation. To have the affections restored; an agreement.
Requisition. A demand; something that is required.
Reproachful. Looking on the act of another with sorrow.
Resentment. The act of repaying another for a wrong, or for some deed.
Rudimentary. The elements which originally form the subject of matters of things.
Ruptured. Breaking; torn; to rend asunder.
Saponify. To convert into soap by the action of an alkali.
Semi-tropical. Pertaining to or characteristics of regions near the tropics.
Septic. That which is productive of putrefaction.
Sortie. A rush upon a foe.
Spinal Column. The backbone.
Species. A group of animals or plants, which have slight changes from each other.
Speculation. The act of man to theorize on certain subjects. Also business of investing and
carrying on trade.
Surveyed. Looking over. Also to lay out or describe meets and bounds.
Supremacy. Having the power; one capable of commanding.
Stratagems. The art of arranging troops. The act of planning.
Synthetic. Making up from original elements. The opposite of analysis.
Symptoms. Indications; in illness, the appearance of the body.
Talisman. Something that produces or is capable of producing a wonderful effect.
Tissues. The parts of the body, like the flesh and muscles.
Toxic. A poison; that which has an effect like alcohol.
Tribute. To give what is due; to repay.
Trepidity. Trembling with fear.
Traversed. Traveled over.
Tracts. A term applied to the veins, pores, arteries, or any other ducts or passages in the
body.
Tumult. An uproar; a commotion.
Unique. Something out of the ordinary.
Unstable. That which is not rigid; yielding.
Vanished. Gone out of sight; that which has left.
Vanquished. Beaten; defeated.
Vantage. A position of superiority; an advantage.
Venom. Poison; that which has an ill effect; also applied to a wish which indicates harm.
Virulent. Extreme; the desire to do wrong.
Vindictive. An act which shows a design to do a wrong.
Voluble. Very talkative.
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