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Zikmund 4e Marketing Research Instructor’s Manual 07-1
Chapter 7
Experimental research and test
marketing
Learning objectives
• Understand the steps in experimental research.
• Decide on a field or laboratory experimental design.
• Decide on the choice of independent and dependent variable(s).
• Select and design the test units.
• Address issues of validity in experiments.
• Select and implement an experimental design.
• Address issues of ethics in experimentation.
• Understand the steps in test marketing.
• Decide whether to test market or not.
• Work out the function of the test market.
• Decide on the type of test market.
• Decide the length of the test market.
• Decide where to conduct the test market.
• Estimate and project the results of the test market.
Chapter summary
Continuing part three of the text, Chapter 7 covers experimental research (basic and factorial)
and test markets. The chapter begins by explaining the nature of experiments and the key
issues in experimental design (internal and external validity). Several equations (experimental
techniques) are presented and ethical issues are also considered. The second portion of the
chapter deals with test markets; various complex designs used to test new products under
realistic market conditions to obtain a measure of sales or profit potentials. The chapter
concludes with a discussion of the increasingly popular use of simulated test markets (virtual-
reality and online).
© 2017 Cengage Learning Pty Ltd

Teaching notes
The nature of experiments
The purpose of experimental research is to allow the investigator to control the research
situation so that causal relationships among variables may be evaluated. Events may be
controlled in an experiment in a way not possible in a survey. In an experiment, one variable
(the independent variable) is manipulated and its effect upon another variable (the dependent
variable) is measured, while other variables that may confound the relationship are eliminated or
controlled.
Step 1: Field and laboratory experiments

A marketing experiment can be conducted in a natural setting (field experiment) or in an artificial
setting that has been contrived for a specific purpose (laboratory experiment). In a laboratory
experiment, the researcher has almost complete control over the research setting. Some
laboratory experiments are more controlled than others. Field experiments are generally used to
fine-tune marketing strategies and to determine sales volume. As experiments increase in
naturalism they begin to approach the pure field experiment, and as they become more artificial
they approach the laboratory type (see Exhibit 7.1, page 195). Market researchers always trade
off internal versus external validity in experiments.
Research done by P!nk on the success of her songs in music clubs is realistic – and therefore it
has high external validity – although she cannot be absolutely sure that people danced only
because her music was played, since other factors (time of night, previous music played,
alcohol and drug consumption, number of available partners etc.) may have influenced the
results. Thus her field experiment may have problems in internal validity (knowing for sure that
people danced more only because of P!nk’s music). It is important to remember that market
researchers trade off external and internal validity. The greater the control of factors and
conditions of the experiment (high internal validity), the less realistic are the results (low external
validity). On the other hand the What went wrong box entitled ‘Does “Greenwashing” Coffee
Work?’ on page 197, shows a laboratory experiment describing that consumers are more willing
to pay more for eco-friendly coffee, but this experience did not take place in a realistic setting (a
coffee shop) and so lacks external validity.
The degree of artificiality in experiments refers to the amount of manipulation and control of
the situation created to ensure that the subjects are exposed to the exact conditions desired.
Generally, subjects will be aware of their participation in laboratory experiments and it is

common to debrief subjects of laboratory experiments to explain the purpose of the research.
One common hybrid between a laboratory experiment that simulates a controlled purchasing
environment and a test market that provides a natural testing of consumers’ reactions is the
controlled store test. The products are put into stores in a number of small cities or into selected
supermarket chains. Such tests offer secrecy, and sales movement and market share can be
measured weekly. However, national sales projections cannot be made – only benchmark sales
data can be obtained because of the relatively small sample of stores and the limitation on the
type of outlet where the product is tested.
Step 2: Decide on the choice of independent and

dependent variable(s)
Manipulation of the independent variable
The experimenter has some degree of control over the independent variable. Its value may be
changed or altered independently of any other variable. The independent variable is
hypothesised to be the causal influence. Experimental treatments are the alternative
manipulations of the independent variable being investigated. In marketing research, the
independent variable is often a categorical or classificatory variable representing some
classifiable or qualitative aspect of marketing strategy. But in some situations, the independent
variable is a continuous variable. The researcher must select the appropriate levels of the
variable as experimental treatments. For example, the number of dollars that can be spent on
advertising may be any number of different values.
• Experimental and control groups: in the simplest form of experiment, only two values of the
independent variable are manipulated. By holding conditions in a control group at zero, or
unchanged, the researcher can control for potential sources of error in the experiment and
get a better measure of the effect that the independent variable had on the experimental
group.
• Several experimental treatment levels: if the use of only two groups does not tell the
researchers everything that they wish to know about the relationship between the dependent
and independent variable, then additional experimental groups can be added (each with the
independent variable at different levels) to get a better idea of the relationship.
• More than one independent variable: it is possible to assess the effects of more than one
independent variable. For example, a restaurant chain might investigate the combined effects
on sales of an increase in advertising and a change in prices.

Selection and measurement of the dependent variable

The dependent variable is the criterion or standard by which the results are judged. It is
presumed that changes in the dependent variable are a consequence of changes in the
independent variable. Selecting the dependent variable is a crucial decision when designing an
experiment. Often the researcher does not consider their selection of the dependent variable as
carefully as theyshould. The experimenter’s choice of a dependent variable determines what
type of answer is given to the research question. For example, in a test market, researchers
should consider the time it takes the effects to become evident carefully. Consumers may try a
‘loser’ once, but they may not re-buy.
Step 3: Select and assign test units

Test units are the subjects or entities whose responses to the experimental treatment are
measured or observed. People are the most common test units in organisational behaviour and
consumer behaviour experiments.
Sample selection and random sampling errors

Sample selection error may occur because of the procedure used to assign subjects or test
units to either the experimental group or the control group. Random sampling errors may occur
if repeating the basic experiment sometimes favours one experimental condition and sometimes
the other on a chance basis. However, it is generally accepted that randomly assigning
participants to groups and experimental treatments is still the best procedure.
Randomisation
This is the random assignment of subjects and treatments to groups. Randomisation is one
device for equally distributing or scattering the effects of extraneous variables. Thus, the chance
of unknown nuisance effects piling up in particular experimental groups can be identified.
Random assignment of subjects allows the researcher to assume that the groups are identical
with respect to all variables except the experimental treatment.
Matching
Matching the respondents on the basis of pertinent background information is another technique
for controlling assignment errors. For example, if age is expected to influence savings
behaviour, a savings and loan organisation conducting an experiment may have greater
assurance that there are no differences among subjects if subjects in all experimental conditions
are matched according to age.

Step 4: Address issues of validity in experiments

The major difference between experimental research and other research is an experimenter’s
ability to hold conditions constant and to manipulate the treatment. When extraneous variables
cannot be eliminated, experimenters may strive for constancy of conditions; that is, they make
efforts to expose all subjects in each experimental group to situations that are exactly alike,
except for the differing conditions of the independent variable.
Constant experimental error

Occurs when the extraneous variables or the conditions of administering the experiment are
allowed to have an influence on dependent variables every time the experiment is repeated. For
example, if the subjects of the experimental group are always administered the treatment in the
morning and the subjects of the control group are always administered the treatment in the
afternoon, this will result in a constant, systematic error that must be taken into account.
Internal validity
Internal validity refers to whether or not the experimental treatment was the sole cause of
observed changes in the dependent variable. It is helpful to classify several different types of
extraneous variables that may jeopardise internal validity.
• History: refers to specific events in the environment between the first and second
measurement that are beyond the control of the experimenter. A common history effect
occurs when competitors change their marketing strategies during a test marketing
experiment. A special case of the history effect takes place when a change in the dependent
variable occurs because members of one experimental condition experienced historical
situations different from those of the other experimental conditions. This is referred to as the
cohort effect.
• Maturation: changes within the respondents that operate as a function of time rather than of a
specific event. For example, during a day-long experiment subjects may grow tired, bored or
hungry.
• Testing: these are also called pretesting effects because the initial measurement or test
alerts respondents to the nature of the experiment and respondents may act differently than
they would have if no pretest measures were taken. In a before-and-after study, taking a
pretest before the independent variable is manipulated may sensitise respondents when they
are taking the test for a second time.
• Instrumentation: to avoid the effects of testing, an alternate form of the measuring instrument
may be given during the post-measurement. Although this may reduce the effect of testing

because of a change in the measuring instrument, it may result in an instrumentation effect.

There are numerous sources of instrument decay or variation (i.e. a change in the wording of
questions or a change in interviewers).
• Selection: the selection effect is a sample bias resulting in differential selection of
respondents for the comparison groups.
• Mortality: if the experiment is conducted over a period of a few weeks or more, there may be
some sample error due to mortality or sample attrition. This occurs when subjects withdraw
from the experiment before it is completed. Mortality effects may occur if many subjects drop
from one experimental group and not from other treatment or control groups.
• Demand characteristics: refers to experimental design procedures that unintentionally hint to
subjects about the experimenter’s hypothesis. If participants recognise the experimenter’s
expectation or demand, they are likely to act in a manner consistent with the experimental
treatment; even slight nonverbal cues may influence their reactions.
− The guinea pig effect: subjects exhibit the behaviour that they feel is expected of them
rather than their actual behaviour.
− The Hawthorne effect: caused by demand characteristics, describes the phenomenon
where people tend to perform differently just because they know they are experimental
subjects.
− People in an experiment interact and this may result in joint decisions rather than a
desired individual decision.
To reduce demand characteristics, researchers typically take steps to make it difficult for
subjects to know what they are trying to find out. If the purpose of the experiment is
disguised, the participant does not know how to be a good subject to help confirm the
hypothesis. Of course, the use of deception presents an ethical question that must be
resolved by the researcher. The ‘Tips of the Trade’ box on page 204 outlines some useful
ways to reduce demand characteristics (artefacts) in experiments.
Teaching tip: Conduct a cola taste test experiment in class. Instructors may find that after
students have tasted three of four colas in a blindfold test, a presentation of Sprite to the
blindfolded subject will elicit a response such as, ‘I can’t tell what kind of cola this is.’ This will
demonstrate the guinea pig effect. Another class participation exercise is suggested in
discussion question seven.
External validity
External validity is being able to generalise beyond the data of the experiment. In essence, it is
a sampling question: To what extent can we transfer the results of a simulated shopping

experiment to real-world supermarket shopping? Of course, if an experiment lacks internal

validity, projecting the result is not possible. Thus, the threats to internal validity may also
jeopardise external validity.
• Student surrogates: one issue of external validity concerns the common use of students as
experimental subjects. The student population is atypical and, although students are easily
accessible, they often are not representative of the total population.
• Extraneous variables: a number of extraneous variables may affect the dependent variable,
thus distorting the experiment.
• Problems controlling extraneous variables: in marketing, it is not always possible to control
everything that should be controlled. For example, a competitor may bring out a rival product
during the course of an experiment.
Teaching tip: Ask students, ‘Is internal validity needed to achieve external validity?’ The answer
to this question is yes. Data projection is not possible without first attaining a high level of
internal validity.
Step 5: Select and implement an experimental design

There are two broad choices of experimental design: basic and factorial.
Basic versus factorial experimental designs

In basic experimental designs, a single independent variable is manipulated to observe its effect
on another, single dependent variable. Factorial experimental designs are more sophisticated
than basic experimental designs. They allow for an investigation of the interaction of two or
more independent variables.
Repeated measures or not

A repeated measure refers to realistic experiments where the same subjects are exposed to all
experimental treatments. The technique eliminates any problems due to subject differences, but
it causes other problems, such as demand characteristics.
Basic experimental designs

There are various types of experimental designs. If only one variable is manipulated, the
experiment is a basic design. If the experimenter wishes to investigate several levels of the
independent variable (for example, four price levels), or if he or she wants to investigate effects
of two or more independent variables, then the experiment requires a complex, or statistical
experimental design.

Symbolism for diagramming experimental designs

The following symbolism facilitates the description of the various experimental designs:
X = exposure of a group to an experimental treatment.
O = observation or measurement of the dependent variable; if more than one observation is

taken, subscripts will be given to indicate temporal order.
R = random assignment of test units.
When analysing diagram designs that use these symbols, the reader should assume a time
flow from left to right.
Three examples of quasi-experimental designs

Quasi-experimental designs do not qualify as true experimental designs because they do not
adequately control for the problems associated with loss of external or internal validity.
• One-shot design, or the after-only design:
X O1
This one-shot design is a case study fraught with problems. In this experiment, we do not
have any kind of comparison. We have no means of controlling extraneous variables. We
need a measure of what would happen when the test units have not been exposed to X to
compare with the measure when the subjects have been exposed to X. Nevertheless, under
certain circumstances this design is the only viable choice.
• One-group pretest–posttest design:
O1 X O2
This design offers a comparison on the same individuals before and after training. Although
this is an improvement over the one-shot design, it still has certain weaknesses – such as
maturation, testing effect and mortality – that may jeopardise internal validity. However,
despite its weaknesses, this design is used frequently in marketing research.
• Static group design:
Experimental group: X O1
Control group: O2
The results of a static control group are computed by subtracting the observed results in the
control group from those in the experimental group (O1 – O2).

A major weakness of this design is that we have no assurance that the groups were
equal on variables of interest before the experimental group received the treatment. If the
groups were selected arbitrarily by the investigator, or if entry into either group was voluntary,
then there may be systematic differences between the groups that could invalidate the
conclusions about the effect of the treatment. Random assignment of subjects may minimise
problems with group differences. If the groups can be determined by the experimenter rather
than existing as a function of some other causation, the static group design is referred to as
an after-only design with control group. On many occasions, after-only designs are the only
ones possible. This is particularly true when conducting use tests for new products or brands.
Three better experimental designs

The following three basic experimental designs have the symbol R to the left of the diagram to
indicate that the first step in a true experimental design is the randomisation of subject
assignment.
• Pretest–posttest control group design (before–after with control):
Experimental group: R O1 X O2
Control group: R O3 O4
− This design has the advantage of the before–after design with the additional advantages
gained from having a control group. The effect of the experimental treatment equals
(O2 − O1) − (O4 − O3).
− It is assumed that the effect of extraneous variables will be the same on both the
experimental and the control groups. This assumption is also made for history, maturation,
testing effects, instrument decay and regression effects. However, the interactive testing
effect is possible when the subjects are sensitised to the subject of the research. This
weakness in the before–after with control group design can be corrected (see the next two
designs).
• Posttest–only control group design (after–only with control):
Experimental group: R X O1
Control group: R O2
The effect of the experimental treatment is equal to O1 – O2. In some situations no pretest
measure is possible about the effect of the treatment (for example, an experiment testing the
effectiveness of athlete’s foot remedy). With only posttest measurement, the effects of testing

and instrument decay are eliminated. Further, all the same assumptions about extraneous
variables are made; that is, they operate equally on both groups.
• Solomon four-group design:
Experimental group 1: R O1 X O2
Control group 1: R O3 O4
Experimental group 2: R X O5
Control group 2: R O6
Although this text does not go through the calculations, it is possible to isolate the effects of
the experimental treatment and interactive testing in this design. Although this design allows
researchers to isolate the various effects, it is rarely used in marketing research because of
the time, effort and cost of implementing it.
• Compromise designs: in many instances of marketing research, true experimentation is not
possible so the best the researcher can do is approximate an experimental design. These
compromise designs may fall short of the requirements of assigning subjects or treatments
randomly to groups. The alternative to the compromise design is to conduct the experiment
without a control group. Generally, this is considered a greater weakness than using groups
that have already been established. When the experiment involves a longitudinal study,
circumstances usually dictate a compromise with true experimentation.
Time series designs

Marketing experiments that are investigating long-term structural change may require a time
series design. When experiments are conducted over long periods, they are most vulnerable to
historical changes. In such cases, the following quasi-design is used:
O1 O2 O3 X O4 O5 O6
Several observations are taken to identify trends before the treatment is administered. After the
treatment, several observations are made to determine if the patterns after the treatment are
similar to those before. Of course, this time series design cannot give the researcher complete
assurance that the treatment caused the change in the trend, but it does enable the researcher
to distinguish temporary changes from permanent changes. An improvement on the basic time
series design is to use a time series with control group design.

Complex experimental design

Complex experimental designs allow more than one independent variable to be manipulated or
they allow the researcher to isolate the effects of confounding extraneous variables. They use
advanced statistical designs. This is discussed further in Chapter 13.
Completely randomised design

This design uses a random process to assign experimental units to treatments. Randomisation
of experimental units is the researcher’s attempt to control all extraneous variables while
manipulating a single factor, the treatment variable. An example is provided in Table 7.1.
Randomised block design

This is an extension of the completely randomised design. A form of randomisation is used to
control most extraneous variables. However, if the researcher has identified a single extraneous
variable that might affect test units’ response to the treatment, then the researcher will attempt
to isolate the single variable by blocking out its effects. By grouping test units into homogeneous
blocks of some relevant characteristic, one known source of extraneous variation may be
separately accounted for. The logic behind the randomised block design is similar to the logic
underlying the selection of a stratified sample rather than a simple random sample. By isolating
the block effects, one type of extraneous variation is partitioned out and a more efficient
experimental design results. An example is provided in Table 7.2.
Factorial designs
Even though the single-factor experiments already considered may have one specific variable
blocked and others controlled for, they are still limited. Factorial designs allow two or more
treatments (factors) at various levels to be tested.
A factorial design allows for the simultaneous manipulation of two or more independent
variables at various levels. The main effect is the influence on the dependent variable by each
independent variable, and the interaction effect is the effect of the combination of the
independent variables on the dependent variable. A major advantage of the factorial design is
its ability to measure the interaction effect, which may be more or less than the total of the main
effects.
Table 7.3 shows a 3 x 2 factorial design. The first factor (price) is varied in three ways and
the second factor (package design) is varied in two ways. A 3 x 2 design requires six cells or six
experimental designs (3 x 2 = 6). It is not necessary that the treatments have the same number
of levels. For example, a 3 x 2 x 4 factorial design (with 24 cells) is possible. Factorial designs

also allow researchers to measure the interaction effects of the independent variables. Table
7.4 shows the result of a believability study conducted using a factorial design.
Graphic interaction
Exhibit 7.3 portrays a graph of the same believability study that is portrayed in Table 7.4. The
slopes of the two lines are different, which indicates interaction between the two treatment
variables. In other words, the believability of the advertising copy depends on whether a man or
a woman views the advertisement.
Step 6: Address ethical issues in experimentation

There are many ethical issues in experimentation. The researchers must concern themselves
with issues relating to privacy, confidentiality, deception and other ethical concerns. Debriefing
is the process of providing subjects with all the pertinent facts about the experiment after the
experiment has been completed. When deception is used, it is recommended that researchers
debrief subjects of laboratory experiments to explain the purpose of the research.
Test marketing: An application of field

experiments
Test marketing refers to scientific testing and controlled experimentation rather than merely
‘trying something out in the marketplace.’ This an experimental procedure provides an
opportunity to test a new product or a new marketing plan under realistic market conditions to
obtain a measure of sales or profit potentials. The major advantage of test marketing is that no
other form of research can beat the ‘real world’ when it comes to testing actual purchasing
behaviour and consumer acceptance of a product.
Step 1: Decide whether to test market or not

Test marketing is an expensive research procedure. Testing a packaged goods product can
cost several million dollars and before the test begins, the cost of such research should be
compared with the value of the information it provides. The appropriate period for a test market
varies depending on the research objectives, but on average, it takes 9 to 12 months to do it
properly. Test marketing is warranted only if it saves the company money in the long run.
Because of time and money, test markets tend to be used only after other options for research
have been exhausted.
As already mentioned, the major advantage of a test market is the possibility of a trial run in
the marketplace. The benefits of this trial run have to be compared with the probabilities of

potential losses or failures inherent in a national introduction. Using test marketing, risks may be
minimised but never eliminated.
Loss of secrecy
When conducting a test market a company runs the risk of exposing a new product or its plans
to a competitor. If the competitor finds the product easy to imitate, it may beat the originating
company to the national marketplace.
When not to test market

Not all product introductions are test marketed. Expensive durables, such as refrigerators, line
extensions and me-too products are rarely test marketed before their introduction. In other
cases, test marketing is used as the last resort because competitors might easily imitate a new
concept; secrecy is more important than research.
Step 2: Work out the functions of test market

Test marketing provides the opportunity to estimate the outcomes of alternative courses of
action, and from that information, the best alternative may be selected. Test marketing allows
the proposed national marketing mix to be evaluated. It is also the best way to establish market
share relationships and to understand the problems of cannibalism (when a new product causes
a drop in sales of another already profitable company line). The second useful function is that
test marketing allows management to identify and correct any weakness in either the product or
its marketing plan before making the commitment to a national sales launch, by which time it will
be too late to incorporate product modifications and improvements. Information demonstrating
marketing failures does not make the product a failure; rather, it indicates research success.
Encountering problems in a local testing situation enables management to make adjustments in
marketing strategy before national introduction.
Step 3: Decide on the type of test market

The standard method of test marketing requires that the organisation choose test markets and
then obtains distribution using its own sales force. This method has considerable external
validity. However, there may be several problems (cost, lack of secrecy, etc.).
Recently, researchers have used the control method of test marketing. The control method
uses a minimarket test in a small city using control store distribution, or forced distribution. A
market research company specialising in test marketing performs the entire test-marketing task,
from initial sales to the retailers, to shelving the product in the stores. Thus, the organisation is
guaranteed distribution in stores representing a predetermined percentage of the market.

The research company performs the warehousing and retailer’s stocking functions. Thus,
the retailer is more willing to cooperate with the research because selling the product is
effortless. Also, stock-outs rarely occur. Despite the fact that both these situations have
advantages, they may be unlikely to occur in a traditional channel of distribution and can be
non-representative as a result. The advantages of using the control method of test marketing
are as follows:
• reduced costs because of smaller test units
• shorter time needed to read test market results
• increased secrecy from competitors because the market is not automatically audited
• no distraction of company salespeople from regular product line.
The potential problems with the control method relate to the fact that distribution is
abnormally high. Therefore, if the organisation’s objective is to see if it can get distribution, a
standard test market will be much more appropriate. But, when the problem is to test a specific
set of alternatives and determine which is the most appropriate marketing activity, controlled
tests may be superior.
High-technology systems using scanner data

Electronic test markets enable researchers to measure the impact of the commercial television
viewing of specific programs on unit sales volume. Using computers and UPC consumer panels,
companies can monitor the household’s item-by-item purchases and link them with television
viewing data. Behaviourscan is a very successful test marketing system that combines with
UPC consumer panels in such a way.
However, a feature of greater significance to researchers interested in experimentation is
the Behaviourscan system that allows the researcher to manipulate what advertising the panel
households see. For example, test commercials may be substituted for regular commercials, or
special print editions of newspapers may be delivered to test households. Thus, experimental
and control groups may be established and the effects of variations in certain variables can be
measured. The electronic high-technology test marketing system increases the speed and
accuracy of test marketing, but it can be expensive.
Simulated test markets

Simulated test markets are research laboratories in which the traditional shopping process is
compressed into a short time span. Marketing researchers use the data from the shopping
experiments as input for computer models of sales that produce estimates of sales volume.

Virtual-reality simulations
Advances in computer graphics and three-dimensional modelling have led to the development
of virtual-reality simulated test markets. These are attempts to reproduce the atmosphere of an
actual retail store with visually compelling images appearing on a computer screen.
Online test markets

Online test markets are a type of online panel used to test market new products and advertising
copy. They have global coverage and respondents are usually paid to participate.
Step 4: Decide on the length of the test market

Test markets should be long enough for consumers to become aware of the product and to try it
more than once. Test marketing for an adequate period minimises potential biases due to
abnormal buying patterns.
Teaching tip: Ask students to name some products or services they think would require a short
test market time. Conversely, which would require a long test market time? How do the
characteristics of these products or services differ? Of course, the time required for test
marketing depends on the product. A pack of chewing gum is consumed substantially sooner
than a bottle of shampoo. However, after high initial penetration and once the novelty of the
product has reached a normal level, the researcher may make an estimate of market share.
Step 5: Decide where to conduct the test market

Selecting test markets is for the most part a sampling problem. The researcher wishes to
choose a sample of markets that are representative of the population, of all cities and towns
throughout the country. There is no ideal test market that is a perfect miniature of say, Malaysia,
but it is important for researchers to avoid cities that are not representative of the nation.
Factors to consider in test market selection

Obtaining a representative test market requires consideration of many factors that may not be
obvious to the inexperienced researcher. The following factors should be considered when
selecting a test market:
• Population size: the population should be large enough to provide reliable, projectable
results, yet small enough to ensure that the costs will not be prohibitive.
• Demographic composition and lifestyle considerations: ethnic backgrounds, incomes, age
distributions, lifestyle etc., should be representative of the nation.

• Competitive situation: competitive market shares, competitive advertising and distribution

patterns should be typical so that the test market represents other geographical regions. If
they are not representative, it will be difficult to project the test market results to other
markets. Similarly, selecting an area with an unrepresentative market potential may cause
innumerable problems.
• Media coverage and efficiency: local media will never be exactly the same as national media.
However, duplicating the national media plan or one similar to it is important.
• Media isolation: advertising from outside communities that could contaminate the test market
should be minimised. A company should also avoid having its advertising spill over into areas
where the product is not available.
• Self-contained trading area: distributors should sell primarily or exclusively in the test market
area. Shipments into and out of markets from chain warehouses can produce confusing
shipping figures.
• Overused test markets: if people become aware of the tests (either consumers or retailers),
they react in a manner different from their norm. Thus, it is important that one great test
market not be established and overused.
• Availability of scanner data: markets that have a high proportion of grocery stores supplying
checkout scanner data are attractive to many test marketers.
Step 6: Estimate and project test market results

The main reasons for conducting a test market are to be able to estimate sales, attitude change,
repeat-purchase behaviour and to project the results on a national level. A number of
methodological factors may cause problems in estimating the results on a national level as
described below.
Over-attention
If too much attention is paid to the testing of a new product, it can make the product more
successful than it normally would be. For example, salespeople may spend unusual amounts of
time making the product more available or they may display it better.
Unrealistic store conditions

Store conditions may be set at the level of the market leader rather than at the national level.
For example, eye-level stocking, resulting from artificially high distribution, may be obtained in
the test market.

Reading competitive environment incorrectly

There can be an erroneous assumption that the competitive environment will be the same
nationally as it was in the test market. If the competition is unaware of the test market, the
results will not measure competitive reaction to strategy. Conversely, competitors may react to a
test market in an attempt to undermine it.
Incorrect volume forecasts

In the typical test market, share of market or unit sales volume is the focus of the attention.
Forecasted volume for test markets should be adjusted for differences between test markets
and national markets. Also, researchers must be concerned with repurchase rates as well as
initial trial purchases by consumers.
Time lapse
If there is a large time lapse between the test market experiment and the national introduction of
the product, it can have an important effect on the consumer’s receptivity to the product.
Projecting test market results

• Consumer surveys: help measure levels of change in consumer awareness of a product;
consumer attitudes towards a product, and rates of purchasing and repeat purchasing. This
information is often acquired via consumer panels and can be used to project sales volume
nationwide.
• Straight trend projections: can be used to assess the market share nationwide. For example,
suppose the market share is 3 per cent in the test market region. A straight-line projection
assumes the market share nationwide will be 3 per cent. Of course, rarely will every market
be identical; yet, this guesstimate may indicate whether the product has a viable marketing
mix.
• Ratio of test product sales to total company sales: calculating a ratio of test product sales to
total company sales in the area may provide a benchmark for modifying projections into other
markets.
• Market penetration x repeat-purchase rate: to calculate market share for products where
there will be repeat purchases, the following formula is used:
Market penetration (trial buyers) x repeat-purchase rate = market share

The repeat-purchase rate must be obtained from some form of historical record. Traditionally,
the consumer panel has been used for recording purchases over time. Panel data may
indicate a cumulative product class buying rate, or market penetration, in the early weeks of
the test market. As the test market continues, repeat purchases from these buyers can be
recorded until the number of trial purchases has levelled off. Exhibit 7.5 indicates a typical
purchase and repeat-purchase pattern for a new product in a test market.

Solutions
Questions for review and critical thinking
1 Read the opening vignette of this chapter. What are some potential problems in using an
online panel as a test market?
As discussed in chapter 5, online panels may not be representative for all markets and
often respondents are paid to take part, which means that there is a self-selection and
possible response bias. The marketing conditions at point of sale, along with retail and
distribution factors may not be addressed in an online test market.
2 Name some independent and dependent variables that a marketing manager would be
interested in including in an experiment in beer tasting.
Student responses will vary, although some possible answers might include:
• Independent variables: advertising dollar volume, alternate advertising copy, alternate
packages designs, product sampling versus couponing.
• Dependent variables: sales, market share, attitude change, brand awareness,
advertising recall.
3 In a test of a new coffee, three Styrofoam cups – labelled A, B and C – are placed before
subjects. The subjects are instructed to taste the coffee from each cup. What problems
might arise in this situation?
There might be two problems in this experiment. First the letters A, B and C have definite
connotations, especially among student populations. Thus because the three different
coffees are always labelled A, B and C, there is a constant error. To improve on this
condition it may be that cups should be labelled with more neutral letters such as H and M
and S. Then the order of the coffees should be rotated within the various cups. A second
problem occurs because the same subjects are exposed to all experimental treatments.
Suppose consumers cannot tell the difference between the coffees. This condition of
repeated measures may be necessary if they have influenced subjects to provide a
constant bias, such as a tendency to prefer the first drink tested. Or it is possible that the
first taste neutralises the taste buds and a respondent cannot objectively evaluate the
coffees. Often when wine tasting, the judges will clear their palates with cheese to make
sure that their taste buds are not been biased.

4 What are demand characteristics? Give some examples.
The term demand characteristic refers to experimental design procedures that

unintentionally provide hints about the experimenter’s hypothesis to the subjects.
Situational aspects of the experiment demand the participant respond in a particular way.
Thus, subjects act in a manner consistent with the experimental treatment. The students
may be able to give several examples. A common demand characteristic occurs during
studies of social responsibility. In a typical study where demand characteristics are present,
the subjects learn because of the nature of situations or measurements presented that the
study is to evaluate, for example, whether an organisation should be socially responsible or
not.
5 What is the difference between a main effect and an interaction in an experiment? In

Question 3 what will create a main effect? Is an interaction possible?
A main effect is the change in a dependent variable caused by altering one experimental
condition (independent variable). In Question 3, as there is only one independent variable,
the type of coffee, there is no interaction as this requires at least two independent or
experimental variables.
6 Why is an experimental confound so damaging to the conclusions drawn from an

experiment?
For experiments to be valid there must be a clear link between a change in experimental
conditions (independent variables) and outcomes (dependent variables). Confounding
variables (confounds) threaten internal and external validity of an experiment and so
conclusions about the changes in experimental conditions to outcomes cannot be made.
7 Name the type of experiment described in each of the following situations. Evaluate the
strengths and weaknesses of each design.
a. A major petroleum corporation is considering phasing out premium unleaded petrol. It

selects Queenstown, New Zealand, as an experimental market in which the product
might be eliminated and decides to watch product line sales results.
This is a one-shot design with the dependent variable measured as an after–only

observation. Technically it is not an experiment because experimental controls have
not been implemented.
b. A soft-drink manufacturer puts the same brand of orange drink in two different
containers with different designs. Two groups are given a package and asked about

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The Project Gutenberg eBook of Research
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Title: Research methods in ecology
Author: Frederic E. Clements
Release date: April 18, 2024 [eBook #73420]
Language: English
Original publication: Lincoln: University Publishing Co, 1905
Credits: Richard Tonsing and The Online Distributed

Proofreading Team at https://www.pgdp.net (This file
was produced from images generously made available
by The Internet Archive)
*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK RESEARCH

METHODS IN ECOLOGY ***
Transcriber’s Note:
New original cover art included with this eBook is
granted to the public domain.
RESEARCH METHODS
IN
ECOLOGY
BY
FREDERIC EDWARD CLEMENTS, Ph.D.

ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF PLANT PHYSIOLOGY IN THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA
ILLUSTRATED
LINCOLN, NEBRASKA
The University Publishing Company
1905
Copyright, 1905
By FREDERIC E. CLEMENTS AND IRVING S. CUTTER
All rights reserved
Press of Jacob North & Company

Lincoln, Nebraska
PREFACE
The present volume is intended as a handbook for investigators

and for advanced students of ecology, and not as a text-book of the
subject. An elementary text-book covering the same field, but
adapted to the needs of undergraduate students, is in preparation.
The handbook is essentially an account of the methods used by the
author in his studies of the last eight years, during which a serious
attempt has been made to discover and to correlate the fundamental
points of view in the vast field of vegetation. No endeavor is made to
treat any portion of the subject exhaustively, since a discussion of
general methods and general principles is of much greater value in
the present condition of ecology. The somewhat unequal treatment
given the different subjects is due to the fact that it has been found
possible to develop some of these more rapidly than others. Finally,
it must be constantly kept in mind that ecology is still in a very
plastic condition, and in consequence, methods, fundamental
principles, and matters of nomenclature and terminology must be
approached without prejudice in order that the best possible
development of this field may be attained.
Grateful acknowledgment for criticisms and suggestions is made to
Professor Doctor Charles E. Bessey and Professor Doctor Roscoe
Pound, who have read the text. The author is under especial
obligations to Doctor Edith S. Clements for the drawings of leaf
types, as well as for reading and criticising the manuscript. Professor
Goodwin D. Swezey, Professor of Astronomy in the University of
Nebraska, has kindly furnished much material for the determination
of the sun’s altitude, and consequent light intensities, and has read
the section devoted to light. Mr. George A. Loveland, Director of the
Nebraska Section of the U. S. Weather Bureau, has contributed many
helpful suggestions to the discussion of meteorological instruments.
To Nella Schlesinger, Alice Venters, and George L. Fawcett, advanced
students in experimental ecology, the author is indebted for many
experiments which have been used in the discussion of adjustment
and adaptation.
Acknowledgment is also made to the following for various cuts:
Henry J. Green, Brooklyn, New York; Julien P. Friez, Baltimore,
Maryland; C. H. Stoelting Co., Chicago, Illinois; Draper
Manufacturing Co., New York city; Gundlach-Manhattan Optical Co.,
Rochester, New York; Rochester Optical Co., Rochester, New York;
Bausch and Lomb Optical Co., Rochester, New York.
FREDERIC EDWARD CLEMENTS.
The University of Nebraska,

May, 1905.
CONTENTS
Chapter I. The Foundation of Ecology
THE NEED OF A SYSTEM

PAGE
1. The scope of ecology 1
2. Ecology and physiology 1
Historical Development
3. Geographical distribution 2
4. The plant formation 2
5. Plant succession 3
6. Ecological phytogeography 4
7. Experimental ecology 4
8. Ecology of the habitat 5
9. The evidence from historical development 6
Present Status of Ecology
10. The lack of special training 6
11. Descriptive ecology 7
12. The value of floristic 8
13. Reconnaissance and investigation 8
14. Resident investigation 9
15. The dangers of a restricted field 9
Applications of Ecology
16. The subjects touched by ecology 10
17. Physiology and pathology 11
18. Experimental evolution 11
19. Taxonomy 12
20. Forestry 14
21. Physiography 15
22. Soil physics 15
23. Zoogeography 15
24. Sociology 16
THE ESSENTIALS OF A SYSTEM
25. Cause and effect: habitat and plant 16

26. The place of function 17
Chapter II. The Habitat
CONCEPT AND ANALYSIS
27. Definition of the habitat 18

28. Factors 18
Classification of Factors
29. The nature of factors 19
30. The influence of factors 19
Determination of Factors
31. The need of exact measurement 20
32. The value of meteorological methods 20
33. Habitat determination 21
34. Determinable and efficient differences 21
Instrumentation
35. Methods 22
36. Method of simple instruments 22
37. Method of automatic instruments 23
38. Combined methods 23
CONSTRUCTION AND USE OF INSTRUMENTS
39. The selection of instruments 24

Water-content
40. Value of different instruments 25
Geotome methods
41. The geotome 25
42. Soil borers 26
43. Taking samples of soil 26
44. Weighing 27
45. Computation 28
46. Time and location of readings 28
47. Location of readings 29
48. Depth of samples 30
49. Check and control instruments 30
Physical and Physiological Water
50. The availability of soil water 30
51. Terms 31
52. Chresard determination under control 32
53. Chresard readings in the field 33
54. Chresard values of different soils 34
Records and Results
55. The field record 35
56. The permanent record 36
57. Sums and means 36
58. Curves 37
Humidity
59. Instruments 37
Psychrometers
60. Kinds 37
61. The sling psychrometer 38
62. Readings 39
63. Cog psychrometer 39
64. Construction and use 40
65. Hygrometers 40
Psychrographs
66. The Draper psychrograph 41
67. Placing the instrument 42
68. Regulating and operating the instrument 43
69. The weekly visit 44
Humidity Readings and Records
70. The time of readings 44
71. Place and height 45
72. Check instruments 45
73. Humidity tables 46
74. Sums, means, and curves 47
Conversion scale for temperatures
75. Records 48
Light
76. Methods 48
The Photometer
77. Construction 49
78. Filling the photometer 50
79. Making readings 50
80. The Dawson-Lander sun recorder 51
81. The selagraph 52
Standards
82. Use 53
83. Making a standard 53
84. Kinds of standards 54
Readings
85. Time 55
Chart for determining sun’s altitude 57
86. Table for determining apparent noon 58
87. Place 59
Table of intensity at various angles 60
Reflected and Absorbed Light
88. The fate of incident light 60
89. Methods of determination 61
90. Leaf and epidermis prints 62
Expression of Results
91. Light records 63
92. Light sums, means and curves 63
Temperature
93. 64
Thermometers
94. Air thermometers 64
95. Soil thermometers 64
96. Maximum-minimum thermometers 65
97. Radiation thermometers 67
98. Thermographs 67
Readings
99. Time 69
100. Place and height 70
Expression of Results
101. Temperature records 70
102. Temperature sums and means 70
103. Temperature curves 71
104. Plant temperatures 71
Precipitation
105. General relations 72
106. The rain gauge 73
107. Precipitation records 74
Wind
108. Value of readings 74
109. The anemometer 75
110. Records 76
Soil
111. Soil as a factor 76
112. The value of soil surveys 77
113. The origin of soils 77
114. The structure of soils 78
115. Mechanical analysis 79
116. Kinds of soils 79
117. The chemical nature of soils 80
Physiography
118. Factors 80
Altitude
119. Analysis into factors 81
120. The barometer 82
Slope
121. Concept 83
122. The clinometer 83
123. The trechometer 84
Exposure
124. Exposure 85
125. Surface 85
126. Record of physiographic factors 86
127. Topography 86
Biotic Factors
128. Influence and importance 86
129. Animals 87
130. Plants 87
METHODS OF HABITAT INVESTIGATION

131. 88
Method of Simple Instruments
132. Choice of stations 88
133. Time of readings 89
134. Details of the method 89
135. Records 91
Method of Ecograph Batteries
136. 92
Expression of Physical Factor Results
137. The form of results 94
Factor Records
138. 94
Factor Curves
139. Plotting 95
140. Kinds of curves 96
141. Combinations of curves 96
142. The amplitude of curves 98
Factor Means and Sums
143. 98
Chapter III. The Plant
STIMULUS AND RESPONSE
General Relations
144. The nature of stimuli 100
145. The kinds of stimuli 100
146. The nature of response 101
147. Adjustment and adaptation 102
148. The measurement of response 103
149. Plasticity and fixity 104
150. The law of extremes 105
151. The method of working hypotheses 106
Hydroharmose
Adjustment
152. Water as a stimulus 107
153. The influence of other factors upon water 107
154. Response 108
155. The measurement of absorption 109
156. The quantitative relation of absorption and transpiration 111
157. Measurement of transpiration 113
158. Field methods 114
159. Expression of results 116
160. Coefficient of transpiration 117
Adaptation
161. Modifications due to water stimuli 118
162. Modifications due to a small water supply 118
163. The decrease of water loss 118
164. The increase of water supply 121
165. Modifications due to an excessive water supply 121
166. Plant types 122
167. Xerophytic types 122
168. Types of leaf xerophytes 123
169. Types of stem xerophytes 125
170. Bog plants 126
171. Hydrophytic types 127
Photoharmose
Adjustment
172. Light as a stimulus 129
173. The reception of light stimuli 131
174. The response of the chloroplast 132
175. Aeration and translocation 134
176. The measurement of responses to light 135
Adaptation
177. Influence of chloroplasts upon form and structure 138
178. Form of leaves and stems 139
179. Modification of the epidermis 140
180. The differentiation of the chlorenchym 142
181. Types of leaves 144
182. Heliophytes and sciophytes 144
EXPERIMENTAL EVOLUTION
183. Scope 145
184. Fundamental lines of inquiry 146
185. Ancestral form and structure 146
186. Variation and mutation 147
187. Methods 149
Method of Natural Experiment
188. Selection of species 149
189. Determination of factors 151
190. Method of record 152
Method of Habitat Cultures
191. Scope and advantages 153
192. Methods 153
193. Transfer 154
194. Modification of the habitat 156
Method of Control Cultures
195. Scope and procedure 157
196. Water-content series 158
197. Light series 160
Chapter IV. The Formation
METHODS OF INVESTIGATION AND RECORD
198. The need of exact methods 161

Quadrats
199. Uses 161
200. Possible objections 163
Kinds of Quadrats and Their Use
201. Size and kinds 164
202. Tapes and stakes 164
203. Locating quadrats 165
The List Quadrat
204. Description 165
205. Manner of use 166
206. Table of abundance 166
The Chart Quadrat
207. Description and use 167
208. The chart 168
209. Mapping 168
210. Factors and photographs 170
The Permanent Quadrat
211. Description and uses 170
212. Manner of use 172
The Denuded Quadrat
213. Description 173
214. Methods of denuding and recording 174
215. Physical factors 175
Aquatic Quadrats
216. Scope 175
Transects
217. The transect 176
The Line Transect
218. Description and method 176
219. The location and size 177
The Belt Transect
220. Details 178
The Permanent Transect
221. Advantages 179
222. Details 179
The Denuded Transect
223. 180
The Layer Transect
224. 180
Ecotone Charts
225. 181
The Migration Circle
226. Purpose 182
227. Location and method 182
228. The denuded circle 183
229. Photographs 183
Cartography
230. Value of cartographic methods 183
231. Standard scale 184
232. Color scheme 184
233. Formation and vegetation maps 185
234. Continental maps 187
Photography
235. 188
236. The camera and its accessories 188
237. The choice of a camera 190
238. The use of the camera 191
239. The sequence of details 192
240. The time of exposure 193
241. Developing 194
242. Finishing 195
Formation and Succession Herbaria
243. Concept and purpose 196
244. Details of collecting 197
245. Arrangement 197
246. Succession herbaria 198
DEVELOPMENT AND STRUCTURE
247. Vegetation an organism 199

248. Vegetation essentially dynamic 199
249. Functions and structures 199
Association
250. Concept 200
251. Causes 201
252. Aggregation 203
Kinds of Association
253. Categories 204
254. Stratum association 204
255. Ground association 205
256. Species guild association 206
257. Light association 206
258. Water-content association 208
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORMATION

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Step 1: Field and laboratory experiments

© 2017 Cengage Learning Pty Ltd

Step 2: Decide on the choice of independent and

© 2017 Cengage Learning Pty Ltd

Selection and measurement of the dependent variable

Step 3: Select and assign test units

Sample selection and random sampling errors

© 2017 Cengage Learning Pty Ltd

Step 4: Address issues of validity in experiments

Constant experimental error

© 2017 Cengage Learning Pty Ltd

because of a change in the measuring instrument, it may result in an instrumentation effect.

© 2017 Cengage Learning Pty Ltd

experiment to real-world supermarket shopping? Of course, if an experiment lacks internal

Step 5: Select and implement an experimental design

Basic versus factorial experimental designs

Repeated measures or not

Basic experimental designs

© 2017 Cengage Learning Pty Ltd

Symbolism for diagramming experimental designs

X = exposure of a group to an experimental treatment.

O = observation or measurement of the dependent variable; if more than one observation is

R = random assignment of test units.

Three examples of quasi-experimental designs

• One-shot design, or the after-only design:

• One-group pretest–posttest design:

• Static group design:

© 2017 Cengage Learning Pty Ltd

Three better experimental designs

• Pretest–posttest control group design (before–after with control):

• Posttest–only control group design (after–only with control):

© 2017 Cengage Learning Pty Ltd

• Solomon four-group design:

Time series designs

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Complex experimental design

Completely randomised design

Randomised block design

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Step 6: Address ethical issues in experimentation

Test marketing: An application of field

Step 1: Decide whether to test market or not

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When not to test market

Step 2: Work out the functions of test market

Step 3: Decide on the type of test market

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High-technology systems using scanner data

Simulated test markets

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Online test markets

Step 4: Decide on the length of the test market

Step 5: Decide where to conduct the test market