Professional Documents
Culture Documents
forecast crime for law enforcement
forecast crime for law enforcement
C O R P O R AT I O N
Predictive Policing
Forecasting Crime for Law Enforcement
P
redictive policing—the application of analytical tech-
niques, particularly quantitative techniques, to identify Key findings:
promising targets for police intervention and prevent or • Predictive policing is the application of analytical tech-
solve crime—can offer several advantages to law enforcement niques to identify promising targets for police intervention,
agencies. Policing that is smarter, more effective, and more with the goal of reducing crime risk or solving past crimes.
proactive is clearly preferable to simply reacting to criminal
acts. Predictive methods also allow police to make better use • Predictive policing techniques can be used to identify
of limited resources. places and times with the highest risk of crime, people at
To increase understanding of how predictive policing risk of being offenders or victims, and people who most
methods can be used, RAND researchers, with sponsorship likely committed a past crime.
from the National Institute of Justice, reviewed the literature
• To be effective, predictive policing must include interven-
on predictive policing tools, compiled case studies of depart-
tions based on analytical findings. Successful interven-
ments that have used techniques that appear promising, and tions typically have top-level support, sufficient resources,
developed a taxonomy of approaches to predictive policing. automated systems to provide needed information, and
assigned personnel with both the freedom to resolve
Predictive Policing Taxonomy crime problems and accountability for doing so.
The researchers found four broad categories of predictive
policing methods, with approaches varying in the amount • Many agencies may find simple heuristics sufficient for
and complexity of the data involved: their predictive policing needs, though larger agencies
• Methods for predicting crimes: These are approaches used to that collect large amounts of data may benefit from more
forecast places and times with an increased risk of crime. complex models.
• Methods for predicting offenders: These approaches iden-
tify individuals at risk of offending in the future.
• Methods for predicting perpetrators’ identities: These tech-
niques are used to create profiles that accurately match Predictive Policing Process
likely offenders with specific past crimes. Making “predictions” is only half of prediction-led policing.
• Methods for predicting victims of crime: Similar to those The other half is carrying out interventions based on the
methods that focus on offenders, crime locations, and predictions to reduce criminal activity or solve crimes.
times of heightened risk, these approaches are used to At the core of the process is a four-step cycle, as shown
identify groups or, in some cases, individuals who are in the figure on page 3. The first two steps involve collect-
likely to become victims of crime. ing and analyzing data on crimes, incidents, and offenders
to produce predictions. The third step is conducting police
The table on the next page summarizes each category operations to intervene on the basis of the predictions. Such
and shows the range of approaches that law enforcement interventions, as shown at the bottom of the figure, may be
agencies have employed to predict crimes, offenders, perpe- generic (i.e., an increase in resources), crime-specific, or prob-
trators’ identities, and victims. The researchers found a near lem-specific. Ideally, these interventions will reduce criminal
one-to-one correspondence between conventional crime activity or lead police to solve crimes, the fourth step. Law
analysis and investigative methods and the more recent enforcement agencies should assess the immediate effects
“predictive analytics” methods that mathematically extend or of the intervention to ensure that there are no immediately
automate the earlier methods. visible problems. Agencies should also track longer-term
–2–
Data
t
nm d
Collection
en
ro re
D ct i
co
at o
vi lte
lle
a n
en A
D sio
at n
fu
a
Criminal
Analysis
Response
A
ss
es
sm
en
t
n
io
In
t
ic
t
er
ed
ve
Police
Pr
ntio
Operations
RAND RR233-S.1
changes by examining collected data, performing additional pret analysis findings (and exclude erroneous findings),
analysis, and modifying operations as needed. recommend interventions, and take action to exploit the
findings and assess the impact of interventions.
Predictive Policing Myths and Pitfalls • You need a high-powered (and expensive) model. In fact,
While predictive policing has much promise and has received most departments do not need the most sophisticated
much attention, there are myths to be aware of and pitfalls to software packages or computers to launch a predictive
avoid when adopting these approaches. Many of the myths policing program. In several of the case studies, simple
stem from unrealistic expectations: Predictive policing has heuristics were nearly as good as analytic software in
been so hyped that the reality cannot match the hyperbole. performing some tasks for predictive policing. While
There are four common myths when it comes to predictive complex models can offer increased predictive power,
policing: there may be diminishing returns.
• The computer actually knows the future. Although much • Predictions automatically lead to major crime reductions.
news coverage promotes the meme that predictive polic- Predictions are just that. Actual decreases in crime
ing is a “crystal ball,” the resulting algorithms predict the require taking action based on predictions. Predictive
risk of future events, not actual events. Computers can policing is part of an end-to-end process.
dramatically simplify the search for patterns, but their
predictions will be only as good as the data used to make To ensure that predictive policing realizes its potential,
them. law enforcement agencies need to avoid some common pitfalls:
• The computer will do everything for you. On the con- • Focusing on accuracy instead of utility. It may be accurate
trary, even with the most complete software suites, to characterize an entire city as a crime hot spot, but
humans must find the relevant data, process these data such a large area is not “actionable” when it comes to
for analysis, design and conduct analyses in response to planning police interventions with limited resources.
ever-changing crime characteristics, review and inter- To identify hot spots that are small enough for police to
–4–
This research brief describes work done for RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Environment and documented in Predictive Policing: The
Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations, by Walter L. Perry, Brian McInnis, Carter C. Price, Susan C. Smith, and John S.
Hollywood, RR-233-NIJ (available at http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR233.html), 2013. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit
research institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © RAND 2013
www.rand.org
RB-9735-NIJ (2013)
CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and
EDUCATION AND THE ARTS
decisionmaking through research and analysis.
ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
NATIONAL SECURITY
PUBLIC SAFETY
Support RAND
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Browse Reports & Bookstore
TERRORISM AND Make a charitable contribution
HOMELAND SECURITY
Research Brief
This product is part of the RAND Corporation research brief series. RAND research briefs present
policy-oriented summaries of individual published, peer-reviewed documents or of a body of published
work.