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Chapter 6
Continuous Probability Distributions
Learning Objectives
1. Understand the difference between how probabilities are computed for discrete and continuous
random variables.
2. Know how to compute probability values for a continuous uniform probability distribution and be
able to compute the expected value and variance for such a distribution.
3. Be able to compute probabilities using a normal probability distribution. Understand the role of the
standard normal distribution in this process.
4. Be able to compute probabilities using an exponential probability distribution.
5. Understand the relationship between the Poisson and exponential probability distributions.
6-1
© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved.
May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Chapter 6
Solutions:
1. a.
b. P(x = 1.25) = 0. The probability of any single point is zero since the area under the curve above
any single point is zero.
c. P(1.0  x  1.25) = 2(.25) = .50
d. P(1.20 < x < 1.5) = 2(.30) = .60
2. a.
f (x)
.15
.10
.05
x
0 10 20 30 40
b. P(x < 15) = .10(5) = .50
c. P(12  x  18) = .10(6) = .60
10 + 20
d. E ( x) = = 15
2
(20 − 10)2
e. Var( x) = = 8.33
12
6-2
3. a.
b. P(x  130) = (1/20) (130 - 120) = 0.50
c. P(x > 135) = (1/20) (140 - 135) = 0.25
120 + 140
d. E ( x) = = 130 minutes
2
4. a.
b. P(.25 < x < .75) = 1 (.50) = .50
c. P(x  .30) = 1 (.30) = .30
d. P(x > .60) = 1 (.40) = .40
5. a. Length of Interval = 12 – 8.5 = 3.5
ì 1
ï for 8.5 £ x £ 12
f (x) = í 3.5
ï 0 elsewhere
î
b. P(x £ 10) = (10 - 8.5)(1/ 3.5) = 1.5 / 3.5 = .4286
c. P(x ³ 11) = (12 -11)(1/ 3.5) = 1/ 3.5 = .2857
d. P(9.5 £ x £ 11.5) = (11.5- 9.5)(1/ 3.5) = 2 / 3.5 = .5714
6-3
Chapter 6
e. P(x ³ 9) = (12 - 9)(1/ 3.5) = 3/ 3.5 = .8571
100 x (.8571) = 85.71 or rounding, 86 iPad Minis should have a battery life
of at least 9 hours.
ì 1
ï for a £ x £ b
6. a. For a uniform probability density function f (x) = í b - a
ï 0
î elsewhere
1
Thus, = .00625.
b- a
Solving for b - a , we have b - a = 1/.00625 = 160
In a uniform probability distribution, ½ of this interval is below the mean and ½ of this interval is
above the mean. Thus,
a = 136 – ½(160) = 56 and b = 136 + ½(160) = 216
b. P(100 £ x £ 200) = (200 -100)(.00625) = .6250
c. P(x ³150) = (216 -150)(.00625) = .4125
d. P(x £ 80) = (80 - 56)(.00625) = .1500
7. a. P(10,000  x < 12,000) = 2000 (1 / 5000) = .40
The probability your competitor will bid lower than you, and you get the bid, is .40.
b. P(10,000  x < 14,000) = 4000 (1 / 5000) = .80
c. A bid of $15,000 gives a probability of 1 of getting the property.
d. Yes, the bid that maximizes expected profit is $13,000.
The probability of getting the property with a bid of $13,000 is
P(10,000  x < 13,000) = 3000 (1 / 5000) = .60.
The probability of not getting the property with a bid of $13,000 is .40.
The profit you will make if you get the property with a bid of $13,000 is $3000 = $16,000 - 13,000.
So your expected profit with a bid of $13,000 is
EP ($13,000) = .6 ($3000) + .4 (0) = $1800.
If you bid $15,000 the probability of getting the bid is 1, but the profit if you do get the bid is only
$1000 = $16,000 - 15,000. So your expected profit with a bid of $15,000 is
EP ($15,000) = 1 ($1000) + 0 (0) = $1,000.
6-4
8.
s = 10
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
9. a.
s =5
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
b. .683 since 45 and 55 are within plus or minus 1 standard deviation from the mean of 50 (Use the
table or see characteristic 7a of the normal distribution).
c. .954 since 40 and 60 are within plus or minus 2 standard deviations from the mean of 50 (Use the
table or see characteristic 7b of the normal distribution).
10.
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
These probabilities can be obtained using Excel’s NORM.S.DIST function or the standard normal
probability table in the text.
a. P(z  1.5) = .9332
b. P(z  1.0) = .8413
c. P(1  z  1.5) = P(z  1.5) - P(z < 1) = .9932 - .8413 = .0919
d. P(0 < z < 2.5) = P(z < 2.5) - P(z  0) = .9938 - .5000 = .4938
6-5
Chapter 6
11. These probabilities can be obtained using Excel’s NORM.S.DIST function or the standard normal
a. P(z  -1) = .1587
b. P(z ≥ -1) = 1 - P(z < -1) = 1 - .1587 = .8413
c. P(z ≥ -1.5) = 1 - P(z < -1.5) = 1 - .0668 = .9332
d. P(-2.5 ≤ z) = 1 - P(z < -2.5) = 1 - .0062 = .9938
e. P(-3 < z ≤ 0) = P(z ≤ 0) - P(z ≤ -3) = .5000 - .0013 = .4987

a. P(0 ≤ z ≤ .83) = .7967 - .5000 = .2967
b. P(-1.57 ≤ z ≤ 0) = .5000 - .0582 = .4418
c. P(z > .44) = 1 - .6700 = .3300
d. P(z ≥ -.23) = 1 - .4090 = .5910
e. P(z < 1.20) = .8849
f. P(z ≤ -.71) = .2389
a. P(-1.98  z  .49) = P(z  .49) - P(z < -1.98) = .6879 - .0239 = .6640
b. P(.52  z  1.22) = P(z  1.22) - P(z < .52) = .8888 - .6985 = .1903
c. P(-1.75  z  -1.04) = P(z  -1.04) - P(z < -1.75) = .1492 - .0401 = .1091
14. These z values can be obtained using Excel’s NORM.S.INV function or by using the standard
normal probability table in the text.
a. The z value corresponding to a cumulative probability of .9750 is z = 1.96.
b. The z value here also corresponds to a cumulative probability of .9750: z = 1.96.
c. The z value corresponding to a cumulative probability of .7291 is z = .61.
d. Area to the left of z is 1 - .1314 = .8686. So z = 1.12.
e. The z value corresponding to a cumulative probability of .6700 is z = .44.
f. The area to the left of z is .6700. So z = .44.
15. These z values can be obtained using Excel’s NORM.S.INV function or by using the standard
normal probability table in the text.
a. The z value corresponding to a cumulative probability of .2119 is z = -.80.
6-6
b. Compute .9030/2 = .4515; z corresponds to a cumulative probability of .5000 + .4515 = .9515. So z

= 1.66.
c. Compute .2052/2 = .1026; z corresponds to a cumulative probability of .5000 + .1026 = .6026. So z

= .26.
d. The z value corresponding to a cumulative probability of .9948 is z = 2.56.
e. The area to the left of z is 1 - .6915 = .3085. So z = -.50.
16. These z values can be obtained using Excel’s NORM.S.INV function or the standard normal
a. The area to the left of z is 1 - .0100 = .9900. The z value in the table with a cumulative probability
closest to .9900 is z = 2.33.
b. The area to the left of z is .9750. So z = 1.96.
c. The area to the left of z is .9500. Since .9500 is exactly halfway between .9495 (z = 1.64) and
.9505(z = 1.65), we select z = 1.645. However, z = 1.64 or z = 1.65 are also acceptable answers.
d. The area to the left of z is .9000. So z = 1.28 is the closest z value.
17.  = 385 and s = 110
x-m 550 - 385

a. z= = = 1.50
s 110
P (x ³ 550) = P (z ³ 1.50) = 1 - P (z £ 1.50) = 1 - .9332 = .0668
The probability that a domestic airfare will cost $550 or more is .0668.
Using Excel: 1 – NORM.DIST(550,385,110,TRUE) = .0668
x-m 250 - 385

b. z= = = -1.23
s 110
P (x £ 250) = P (z £ -1.23) = .1093
The probability that a domestic airfare will cost $250 or less is .1093.
Using Excel: NORM.DIST(250,385,110,TRUE) = .1099
x-m500 - 385
c. For x = 500, z = = = 1.05
s 110
x - m 300 - 385
For x = 300, z = = = -.77
s 110
P(300 £ x £ 400) = P (z £ 1.05) - P (z £ -.77)= .8531 - .2206 = .6325
The probability that a domestic airfare will cost between $300 and $500 is .6325.
Using Excel: NORM.DIST(500,385,110,TRUE) – NORM.DIST(300,385,110,TRUE) = .6323
6-7
Chapter 6
d. The upper 3%, or area = 1- .03 = .97 occurs for z = 1.88
x =  + zs = 385 + 1.88(110) = $592
For an airfare to be in the upper 3% it must be $592 or more.
18.  = 14.4 and s = 4.4
20 − 14.4
a. At x = 20, z = = 1.27
4.4
P(z  1.27) = .8980
P(x  20) = 1 - .8980 = .1020
Using Excel: 1-NORM.DIST(20,14.4,4.4,TRUE) = .1016
10 − 14.4
b. At x = 10, z = = −1.00
4.4
P(z ≤ -1.00) = .1587
So, P(x  10) = .1587
Using Excel: 1-NORM.DIST(10,14.4,4.4,TRUE) = .1587
c. A z-value of 1.28 cuts off an area of approximately 10% in the upper tail.
x = 14.4 + 4.4(1.28) = 20.03
A return of 20.03% or higher will put a domestic stock fund in the top 10%
Using Excel: 1-NORM.INV(.9,14.4,4.4) = 20.0388
19.  = 328 and s = 92
x− 500 − 328

a. z= = = 1.87
s 92
P(x > 500) = P(z > 1.87) = 1 - P(z ≤ 1.87) = 1 - .9693 = .0307
The probability that the emergency room visit will cost more than $500 is .0307.
Using Excel: 1-NORM.DIST(500,328,92,TRUE) = .0308
x− 250 − 328

b. z= = = −.85
s 92
P(x < 250) = P(z < -.85) = .1977
The probability that the emergency room visit will cost less than $250 is .1977.
6-8
x−
400 − 328
c. For x = 400, z = = = .78
s 92
x −  300 − 328
For x = 300, z = = = −.30
s 92
P(300 < x < 400) = P(z < .78) - P(z < -.30) = .7823 - .3821 = .4002
The probability that the emergency room visit will cost between $300 and $400 is .4002.
Using Excel: NORM.DIST(400,328,92,TRUE) - NORM.DIST(300,328,92,TRUE) = .4026
d. The lower 8%, or area = .08, occurs for z = -1.41
x =  + zs = 328 – 1.41(92) = $198.28
For a patient to have a charge in the lower 8%, the cost of the visit must have been $198.28 or less.
Using Excel: NORM.INV(.08,328,92) = 198.73
20. a. United States:  = 3.73 s = .25

3.5 − 3.73
At x = 3.50, z = = −.92
.25
P(z < -.92) = .1788
So, P(x < 3.50) = .1788
Using Excel: NORM.DIST(3.5,3.73,.25,TRUE) = .1788
b. Russia:  = 3.40 s = .20
3.50 − 3.40
At x = 3.50, z = = .50
.20
P(z < .50) = .6915
So, P(x < 3.50) = .6915
Using Excel: NORM.DIST(3.5,3.40,.20,TRUE) = .6915
69.15% of the gas stations in Russia charge less than $3.50 per gallon.
c. Use mean and standard deviation for Russia.
3.73 − 3.40
At x = 3.73, z = = 1.65
.20
P ( z  1.65) = 1 − P ( z  1.65) = 1 − .9505 = .0495
P( x  3.73) = .0495
Using Excel: 1-NORM.DIST(3.73,3.40,.20,TRUE) = .0495
6-9
Chapter 6
The probability that a randomly selected gas station in Russia charges more than the mean price in
the United States is .0495. Stated another way, only 4.95% of the gas stations in Russia charge more
than the average price in the United States.
21. From the normal probability tables, a z-value of 2.05 cuts off an area of approximately .02 in the
upper tail of the distribution.
x =  + zs = 100 + 2.05(15) = 130.75
A score of 131 or better should qualify a person for membership in Mensa.
22. Use  = 8.35 and s = 2.5
a. We want to find P(5 ≤ x ≤10)
At x = 10,
x− 10 − 8.35
z= = = .66
s 2.5
At x = 5,
x− 5 − 8.35
z= = = −1.34
s 2.5
P(5 ≤ x ≤ 10) = P(-1.34 ≤ z ≤ .66)= P(z ≤ .66) - P(z ≤ -1.34)

= .7454 - .0901
= .6553
Using Excel: NORM.DIST(10,8.35,2.5,TRUE) – NORM.DIST(5,8.35,2.5,TRUE) = .6553
The probability of a household viewing television between 5 and 10 hours a day is .6553.
b. Find the z-value that cuts off an area of .03 in the upper tail. Using a cumulative probability of
1 - .03 = .97, z = 1.88 provides an area of .03 in the upper tail of the normal distribution.
x =  + zs = 8.35 + 1.88(2.5) = 13.05 hours
Using Excel: NORM.INV(.97,8.35,2.5) = 13.0530
A household must view slightly over 13 hours of television a day to be in the top 3% of television
viewing households.
x− 3 − 8.35
c. At x = 3, z = = = −2.14
s 2.5
P(x>3) = 1 - P(z< -2.14) = 1 - .0162 = .9838
Using Excel: 1-NORM.DIST(3,8.35,2.5) = .9838
The probability a household views more than 3 hours of television a day is .9838.
6 - 10
60 − 80
23. a. z= = −2 P(z ≤ -2) = .0228. So P(x < 60) = .0228
10
Using Excel: NORM.DIST(60,80,10,TRUE) =.0228
b. At x = 60
60 − 80
z= = −2 Area to left is .0228
10
At x = 75
75 − 80
z= = −.5 Area to left is .3085
10
P(60  x  75) = .3085 - .0228 = .2857
Using Excel: NORM.DIST(75,80,10,TRUE)-NORM.DIST(60,80,10,TRUE) =.2858
90 − 80
c. z= =1 P(z ≤ 1) = P(x ≤ 90) = .1587
10
Using Excel: 1-NORM.DIST(90,80,10,TRUE) =.1587
Therefore 15.87% of students will not complete on time.
(60) (.1587) = 9.522
We would expect 9.522 students to be unable to complete the exam in time.
24.  = 749 and s = 225
x-m 400 - 749

a. z= = = -1.55
s 225
P (x < 400) = P (z < -1.55) = .0606
The probability that expenses will be less than $400 is .0606.
x-m 800 - 749

b. z= = = .23
s 225
P (x ³ 800) = P (z ³ .23) = 1 - P (z £ .23) = 1 - .5910 = .4090
The probability that expenses will be $800 or more is .4090.
6 - 11
Chapter 6
x-m
1000 - 749
c. For x = 1000, z = = = 1.12
s 225
x - m 500 - 749
For x = 500, z = = = -1.11
s 225
P(500 £ x £ 1000) = P (z £ 1.12) - P (z £ -1.11) = .8686 - .1335 = .7351
The probability that expenses will be between $500 and $1000 is .7351.
d. The upper 5%, or area = 1-.05 = .95 occurs for z = 1.645
x =  + zs = 749 + 1.645(225) = $1119
The 5% most expensive travel plans will be $1119 or more.
25.  = 204 and s = 55
x-m 225 - 204

a. z= = = .38
s 55
P (x ³ 225) = P (z ³ .38) = 1 - P (z £ .38) = 1 - .6480 = .3520
The probability that the hotel room will cost $225 or more is .3520.
x-m 140 - 204

b. z= = = -1.16
s 55
P (x < 140) = P (z < -1.16)= .1230
The probability that the hotel room will cost less than $140 is .1230.
x-m
300 - 204
c. For x = 300, z = = = 1.75
s 55
x - m 200 - 204
For x = 200, z = = = -.07
s 55
P(200 £ x £ 300) = P (z £ 1.75) - P (z £ -.07)= .9599 - ..4721 = .4878
The probability that the hotel room will cost between $200 and $300 is .4878.
6 - 12
d. The upper 20%, or area = 1-.20 = .80 occurs for z = .84
x =  + zs = 204 + .84(55) = $250
The 20% most expensive hotel rooms will cost $250 or more per night.
Using Excel: NORM.INV(.80,204,55,TRUE) = 250.2892
26. a. P(x  6) = 1 - e-6/8 = 1 - .4724 = .5276
Using Excel: EXPON.DIST(6,1/8,TRUE) = .5276
b. P(x  4) = 1 - e-4/8 = 1 - .6065 = .3935
c. P(x  6) = 1 - P(x  6) = 1 - .5276 = .4724
Using Excel: =1-EXPON.DIST(6,1/8,TRUE) = .4724
d. P(4  x  6) = P(x  6) - P(x  4) = .5276 - .3935 = .1341
Using Excel: EXPON.DIST(6,1/8,TRUE)-EXPON.DIST(4,1/8,TRUE) = .1342
27. a. P( x  x0 ) = 1 − e − x0 / 3
b. P(x  2) = 1 - e-2/3 = 1 - .5134 = .4866
c. P(x  3) = 1 - P(x  3) = 1 - (1 - e −3/ 3 ) = e-1 = .3679
d. P(x  5) = 1 - e-5/3 = 1 - .1889 = .8111
e. P(2  x  5) = P(x  5) - P(x  2) = .8111 - .4866 = .3245
Using Excel: EXPON.DIST(5,1/3,TRUE)-EXPON.DIST(2,1/3,TRUE) = .3245
1 − x /20
28. a. With  =  f ( x) = e
20
− x/ 
b. P(x ≤ 15) = 1 − e = 1 − e −15/20 = .5276
c. P( x > 20) = 1 - P(x ≤ 20)
−20/20 −1
= 1 - (1 - e ) = e = .3679
6 - 13
Chapter 6
1 − x /7
d. With  =  f ( x) = e
7
P( x  5) = 1 − e − x /  = 1 − e −5/7 = .5105
29. a.
b. P(x  12) = 1 - e-12/12 = 1 - .3679 = .6321
c. P(x  6) = 1 - e-6/12 = 1 - .6065 = .3935
d. P(x  30) = 1 - P(x < 30)

= 1 - (1 - e-30/12)
= .0821
1 1 −x/2
30. a. f ( x) = e− x /  = e for x > 0
 2
P(x < x0) = 1 − e − x0 / 
P(x < 1) = 1 − e −1/ 2 = 1 − e −.5 = 1 - .6065 = .3935
b. P(x < 2) = 1 − e −2/ 2 = 1 − e −1.0 = 1 - .3679 = .6321
P (1  x  2) = P ( x  2) − P ( x  1) = .6321 - .3935 = .2386
c. For this customer, the cable service repair would have to take longer than 4 hours.
P ( x  4) = 1 − P ( x  4) = 1 −(1 − e −4/ 2 ) = e −2.0 = .1353
6 - 14
1 1 − x / 25
31. a. f ( x) = e− x /  = e for x > 0
 25
P(x < x0) = 1 − e − x0 / 
P(x < 20) = 1 − e −20/ 25 = 1 − e −.80 = 1 - .4493 = .5507
b. P(x  30) = 1 - P(x  30) = 1 - (1 - e-30/25) = e-1.2 = .3012
c. For the customer to make the 15-minute return trip home by 6:00 p.m., the order must be ready by
5:45 p.m. Since the order was placed at 5:20 p.m., the order must to be ready within 25 minutes.
P(x  25) = 1 - e −25/25 = 1 - e−1 = 1 - .3679 = .6321

This may seem surprising high since the mean time is 25 minutes. But, for the exponential
distribution, the probability x being greater than the mean is significantly less than the probability of
x being less than the mean. This is because the exponential distribution is skewed to the right.
32. a. Because the number of calls per hour follows a Poisson distribution, the time between calls follows
an exponential distribution. So,
for a mean of 1.6 calls per hour, the mean time between calls is
60 minutes/hour
m= = 37.5 minutes per call
1.6 calls/hour
æ 1 ö - x/37.5
b. The exponential probability density function is f (x) = ç e for x ³ 0
è 37.5 ÷ø
where x is the minutes between 911 calls.
c. Using time in minutes,
( )
P x < 60 = 1- e-60/37.5 = 1- .2019 = .7981
d. ( )
P(x ³ 30) = 1- P x £ 30 = 1- (1- e-30/37.5 ) = 1- .5507 = .4493
e. ( )
P 5 £ x £ 20 = (1- e -20/37.5 ) - (1- e5/37.5 ) = .4134 - .1248 = .2886
33. a. Let x = sales price ($1000s)
1
 for 200  x  225
f ( x) =  25
 0 elsewhere

b. P(x  215) = (1 / 25) (225 - 215) = 0.40
c. P(x < 210) = (1 / 25)(210 - 200) = 0.40
6 - 15
Chapter 6
d. E (x) = (200 + 225)/2 = 212,500
If she waits, her expected sale price will be $2,500 higher than if she sells it back to her company
now. However, there is a 0.40 probability that she will get less. It’s a close call. But, the expected
value approach to decision making would suggest she should wait.
34. a. Find the z value that cuts off an area of .10 in the lower tail.
From the standard normal table z ≈ -1.28. Solve for x,
x − 19, 000
z = −1.28 =
2100
x = 19,000 – 1.28(2100) = 16,312
10% of athletic scholarships are valued at $16,312 or less.
Using Excel: NORM.INV(.90,19000,2100) = 16,308
x− 22, 000 − 19, 000

b. z= = = 1.43
s 2100
P(x ≥ 22,000) = 1 – P(z ≤ 1.43) = 1 - .9236 = .0764
7.64% of athletic scholarships are valued at $22,000 or more.
Using Excel: 1-NORM.DIST(22000,19000,2100) = .0766
c. Find the z value that cuts off an area of .03 in the upper tail: z = 1.88. Solve for x,
x − 19, 000
z = 1.88 =
2100
x = 19,000 + 1.88(2100) = 22,948
3% of athletic scholarships are valued at $22,948 or more.
Using Excel: NORM.INV(.97,19000,2100) = 22,949.6666
35. a. P(defect) = 1 - P(9.85  x  10.15)
= 1 - P(-1  z  1) = 1 - .6826 = .3174
Expected number of defects = 1000(.3174) = 317.4

b. P(defect) = 1 - P(9.85  x  10.15)
= 1 - P(-3  z  3) = 1 - .9974 = .0026
Expected number of defects = 1000(.0026) = 2.6
c. Reducing the process standard deviation causes a substantial reduction in the number of defects.
6 - 16
36.  = 658
a. z = -1.88 cuts off .03 in the lower tail
So,
610 − 658
z = −1.88 =
s
610 − 658
s= = 25.5319
−1.88
x− 700 − 658

b. At 700, z = = = 1.65
s 25.5319
x− 600 − 659

At 600, z = = = −2.31
s 25.5319
P(600 < x < 700) = P(-2.31 < z < 1.65) = .9505 - .0104 = .9401
c. z = 1.88 cuts off approximately .03 in the upper tail
x = 658 + 1.88(25.5319) = 706.
On the busiest 3% of days 706 or more people show up at the pawnshop.
37.  = 4.5 and s = .82
x-m 5 - 4.5
a. z= = = .61
s .82
P (x < 5) = P (z < -.61) = .7291
Using Excel: NORM.DIST(5,4.5,.82,TRUE) = .7290
x-m 3- 4.5
b. z= = = -1.83
s .82
P (x ³ 3) = P (z ³ -1.83) = 1 - P (z £ -1.83) = 1 - .0336 = .9664
Using Excel: 1-NORM.DIST(3,4.5,.82,TRUE) = .9663
x-m 4 - 4.5
c. For x = 4, z = == -.61
s .82
x - m 3- 4.5
For x = 3, z = = = -1.83
s .82
P(3 £ x £ 4) = P (z £ -.61) - P (z £ -1.83) = .2709 - .0336 = .2373
Using Excel: NORM.DIST(4,4.5,.82,TRUE) – NORM.DIST(3,4.5,.82,TRUE) = .2373
6 - 17
Chapter 6
d. 85% of the weekly cargo volumes can be handled without requiring the port to extend
operating hours; 15% of the time the tons of cargo is so large it requires the port to extend operating
hours.
The upper 15%, or area = 1-.15 = .85 occurs for z = 1.04
x =  + zs = 4.5 + 1.04(.82) = 5.35 tons
A weekly volume of 5.35 tons or more will require the port to extend operating hours.
Using Excel: NORM.INV(.85,4.5,.82) = 5.3499
38. a. At x = 200
200 − 150
z= =2
25
P(x > 200) = P(z > 2) = 1 - P(z ≤ 2) = 1 - .9772 = .0228
b. Expected Profit = Expected Revenue - Expected Cost
= 200 - 150 = $50
39. a. Mean monthly revenue = ($368)(330)/12 = $10,120
b.  = 10,120 and s = 2200
x-m 12,000 -10,120

z= = = .85
s 2200
P (x > 12,000) = P (z > .85) = 1 - P (z £ .85) = 1 - .8023 = .1977
x-m 7,500 -10,120

c. z= = = -1.19
s 2200
P (x < 7,500)= P (z < -1.19) = .1170
d. Mean monthly revenue = ($420)(330)/12 = $11,550
 = 11,550 and s = 2500
x-m 12,000 -11,550

z= = = .18
s 2500
P (x > 12,000) = P (z > .18) = 1 - P (z £ .18) = 1 - .5714 = .4286
x-m 7,500 -11,550

z= = = -1.62
s 2500
6 - 18
P (x < 7,500)= P (z < -1.62)= .0526
Current annual revenue = ($368)(330) = $121,400
New annual revenue = ($420)(330) = $138,600
The increase in annual revenue $138,600 - $121,400 = $17,160 (14.1%) and the higher probability
of monthly revenues over $12,000 make the upgraded minibar service worthwhile.
40. a. At 400,
400 − 450
z= = −.500
100
Area to left is .3085
At 500,
500 − 450
z= = +.500
100
P(400  x  500) = .6915 - .3085 = .3830
38.3% will score between 400 and 500.
b. At 630,
630 − 450
z= = 1.80
100
96.41% do worse and 3.59% do better .
c. At 480,
480 − 450
z= = .30
100
38.21% are acceptable.
41. a. At 100,000
100, 000 − 88,592
z=  .57
19,900
P(x > 100,000) = P(z > .57) = 1 - P(z  .57) = 1 - .7157 = .2843
The probability of a Houston brand manager having a base salary in excess of $100,000 is .2843.
b. At 100,000
100, 000 − 97, 417
z=  .12
21,800
P(x > 100,000) = P(z > .12) = 1 - P(z  .12) = 1 - .5478 = .4522
The probability of a Los Angeles brand manager having a base salary in excess of $100,000 is .4522
6 - 19
Chapter 6
c. At x = 75,000
75, 000 − 97, 417
z=  −1.03
21,800
P(x < 75,000) = P(z < -1.03) = .1515
The probability of a Los Angeles brand manager receiving a base salary below $75,000 is small:
.1515
d. The answer to this is the Houston brand manager base salary that cuts off an area of .01 in the upper
tail of the distribution for Houston brand managers.
Use z = 2.33
x = 88,592 + 2.33(19,900) = 134,959
A Los Angeles brand manager who makes $134,959 or more will earn more than 99% of the
Houston brand managers.
42. s = .6
At 2%
z ≈ -2.05 x = 18
x− 18 − 
z=  −2.05 =
s .6
 = 18 + 2.05 (.6) = 19.23 oz.
0.02
18  =19.23
The mean filling weight must be 19.23 oz.
43. a. Given P( x  5) = 1 − e − x /  = 1 − e −5/  = .53
Compute P ( x  5) for µ= 5.8, 6.2 and 7.0
P( x  5) = 1 − e −5 / 5.8 = .5777
P ( x  5) = 1 − e −5/5.8 = .5777
6 - 20
Another random document with
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Robespierre, 178
Rochambeau, 164, 166, 170
Rochefort, 174, 192
Rodney, Admiral, in battle with De Guichen, 155, 159–164
Roman Empire, 301
Rooke, British Admiral, 156, 157
Rosily, French Admiral, 199, 208, 221
Rotterdam, 336
Royal Sovereign, British ship, 123–217
Rozhestvensky, Russian Admiral, 66, 70, 82–84, 257, 265, 270, 274,
276–282
Russia, trade of, 25;
alliance of, 53;
in Asia, 76–78, 153, 300;
in Seven Years’ War, 147;
in Napoleonic Wars, 184–190, 192, 224–226;
a member of the Entente, 305, 317–318;
decreased strength of, 322;
her need of a navy, 327, 355–356.
See Russo-Japanese War
Russo-Japanese War, 56–57, 64, 66, 82–84, 88, 256–282, 355
Sackett’s Harbor, 232, 239

St. George’s Channel, 37
St. Helena, 20, 152
St. Lawrence, Gulf of, 20;
river, true frontier in 1812, 230 ff.
St. Thomas, 103
St. Vincent, Lord, policy of, 5, 193
Saint-André, French Commissioner, 173, 179
Saints’ Passage, battle of, 160, 169
Samana Bay, 103
Sampson, Admiral, #$1#, 241, 249, 250–255
Santa Lucia, 74, 103, 105, 108
Santiago de Cuba, 71, 103, 104, 107, 241, 243, 246, 247;
blockade and battle of, 250–255
Santisima Trinidad, Spanish ship, 214, 215, 217, 218, 220
Sardinia, 37
Scheldt River, 30, 248
Schleswig Holstein, 349
Schley, Admiral, 241, 246
Sea Power, dependence on, a British policy, #$1#;
scope of history of, 3;
elements of, 16–47;
conditions affecting, 21;
growth of British, 141–146, 151–152;
controls communications, 77–78;
decisive in warfare, 98, 99;
an important element in national growth, 154, 286–287;
in Napoleonic Wars, 191–197, 221–224;
a protection against aggressions by land powers, 306–308;
interest in, 326–327
Secession, War of. See Civil War
Semenoff, Russian Captain, quoted, 280
Seven Years’ War, 85–86, 142–144, 147–154, 307
Shafter, General, 269
Sherman, General, quoted, 335
Ship design, unity of purpose in, 61–62
Sicily, 37, 38, 39, 42
Situation, determines strategic value of a point, 69–70, 110
Smith, Sir Sidney, 126
Socotra, 152
Sound, between North and Baltic Seas, 51, 185, 186, 190
South Africa, 290;
war in, 293–295, 347
South America, unstable political conditions in, 148–149;
application of Monroe Doctrine to, 290
Spain, position of, 26;
dependence on sea power, 38, 39;
colonial policy of, 45;
in 18th century, 141–142, 143–144, 151–152;
in Napoleonic Wars, 81, 221, 226;
colonial empire of, lost, 291, 342.
See Spanish-American War
Spanish-American War, strategy of, #$1#, 59–60, 88–90;
Cervera’s fleet in, 241–249;
Santiago blockade, 250–255;
strengthened Anglo-American unity, 291–295;
could not have been avoided by arbitration, 342, 348–349
Speed, of battleships, 61, 246–248
Strasburg, 71, 137
Strategic Lines and Positions, in the Caribbean, 65–78, 100–112;
in the War of 1812, 238–240
Strategy, defined, 4, 12, 49;
value of study of, 5;
in War of 1812, 229–240;
must take into account political conditions, 250–253, 320–327;
illustrated by mistakes, 257;
must be exercised in time of peace, 274;
chief aim of, 311
Submarines, 70, 99
Suez Canal, 26, 28, 51, 70, 77, 152, 252, 261, 289, 290
Suffren, French Admiral, 86, 153
Sully, French Minister, 38
Suvarof, General, 262
Sweden, trade of, 25;
in Thirty Years’ War, 53;
in 1800, 184–190
Tactics, defined, 4, 49;

illustrated in history, 5–7;
in naval combats, 62–64;
formalism in, 155–158;
changes in, at close of 18th century, 159 ff., 168;
chief aim of, 311
Territory, extent of, affecting sea power, 39–42
Texel, 193
Tobago, 160
Togo, Japanese Admiral, 60, 66, 82–84, 90, 270, 276–280
Torbay, 24
Toronto, 231, 236
Torpedo craft, 130–134
Torrington, British Admiral, 242, 248
Toulon, 57, 58, 154, 174, 192, 193, 196, 248
Tourville, French Admiral, 80, 81, 155, 159, 207
Trade. See Commerce
Trafalgar, battle of, 5, 62, 192, 194, 196–223, 248
Trieste, 306
Trincomalee, 86
Triple Alliance, 53, 304–306, 317–318
Triple Entente. See Entente
Tsushima, battle of, 64, 70, 82–84, 88, 265, 276–282
Turkey, 33, 148, 150
Ulm, 50, 71, 76, 191

United States, merchant marine of, 18, 35;
geographical position of, 22;
and Panama Canal, 27–29;
seacoasts of, inadequately protected, 34–36;
exposed only by sea, 39;
deficient in seafaring population, 44;
colonial policy of, 46;
seacoasts of, regarded as a line, 65–67;
naval requirements of, 133–134;
community of interests with Great Britain, 291–295, 306–308,
318–327;
expansion of, 297–298;
and the Open Door Policy, 299;
political ideals of, 302;
policy of, regarding commerce warfare, 331–333.
See Navy, United States
Utrecht, peace of, 141–142
Vengeur, French ship, 180–182

Venice, 306
Victory, Nelson’s flagship, 213–214
Vigo Bay, 157
Villaret-Joyeuse, French Admiral, 178
Villeneuve, French Admiral, quoted, 173;
in Trafalgar campaign, 196, 199, 202, 210–223
Vistula River, 12, 78
Vladivostok, 66, 73, 82, 83, 88;
squadron based on, 256–261, 265, 266, 270, 274;
objective of Rozhestvensky, 276–282
Von der Goltz, General, quoted, 321
War, principles of, 6;
causes of, 148;
preparedness for, 128–134;
beneficial results of, 292–295, 342–354
War of 1812, commerce warfare in, 91–99, 226–228;
strategy of, 229–240
Washington, General, 164;
quoted, 169, 170
Washington, city of, 31
Waterloo, battle of, 82, 239
Weapons, changes in, 6
Wellington, Duke of, 82, 234, 239
West Indies, a source of wealth for Spain, 37;
Nelson in, 196–197, 202.
See Caribbean Sea
William II, of England, 81, 277, 281
Wilkinson, General, 238
Windward Passage, 102
Wireless, in war, 84, 85
Yalu River, 268

Yang-tse River, 276
Yeo, British Commodore, 235
Yucatan Passage, 102, 104
Zuyder Zee, 34
1. “From Sail to Steam,” p. xiv.
2. “From Sail to Steam,” p. 55.
3. See pp. 328–341.
4. Rear Admiral Bradley A. Fiske, U. S. Naval Institute, January–February,
1915, p. 2.
5. “La Maîtrise de la Mer,” Auguste Moireau, Revue des Deux Mondes,
October, 1902.
6. “Of Kingdoms and Estates.”
7. “The Revival of Naval History,” Contemporary Review. November, 1917.
While the term “political pamphlet” suggests the influence of the book abroad, it is
obviously inappropriate in describing its purpose and method of treatment.
8. “The Kaiser’s Dreams of Sea Power,” Archibald Hurd, Fortnightly Review,
August, 1906.
10. “Captain Romeo Bernotti,” letter to the editor, April 25, 1918.
11. “A Great Public Servant,” The Outlook, January 13, 1915.
13. “The Influence of Sea Power upon History,” pp. 1–2, 8–10.
14. “Naval Administration and Warfare,” Objects of the Naval War College
(1888), pp. 193–194, 233–240.
15. In a preceding passage the author shows that American naval thought has
been preoccupied with problems of material.—Editor.
16. “The Influence of Sea Power upon History,” pp. 25–59. Mr. S. G. W.
Benjamin has pointed out (N. Y. Times Book Review, Feb. 2, 1902) that it was in
the preface and opening chapter of this book, “comprising only eighty-nine pages,
that Captain Mahan brought forward his famous presentation of the theory about
the influence of sea power on empire.” The present selection includes the major
part of the first chapter.—Editor.
17. For the author’s later opinion on the need of a navy, see pp. 355–357.—
Editor.
18. Written before 1890.—Editor.
19. By a base of permanent operations “is understood a country whence come
all the resources, where are united the great lines of communication by land and
water, where are the arsenals and armed posts.”
20. “Naval Administration and Warfare,” pp. 199, 206. For the distinction
drawn, see also pp. 4, 12.—Editor.
21. “Naval Strategy,” pp. 31–53.
22. An interesting instance of the method and forethought which cause
German naval development of all kinds to progress abreast, on parallel lines, is
found in the fact that by the time the three Dreadnoughts laid down in 1911 are
completed, and with them two complete Dreadnought squadrons of eight each,
which probably will be in 1914, the Kiel Canal will have been enlarged to permit
their passage. There will then be a fleet of thirty-eight battleships; including these
sixteen, which will be stationed, eight in the North Sea, eight in the Baltic, linked
for mutual support by the central canal. The programme contemplates a
continuous prearranged replacing of the present pre-Dreadnoughts by
Dreadnoughts.
23. See map on page 278.
25. “Naval Strategy,” pp. 166–167. For illustration and further discussion of
strategic lines, see “General Strategy of the War of 1812,” in this volume, pp. 229–
240.—Editor.
26. “The Problem of Asia” (1900), pp. 124–127.
29. “Sea Power in its Relations to the War of 1812,” Vol. I, pp. 284–290.
30. “History of the United States,” Vol. VIII, chap. VIII.
31. “The Influence of Sea Power upon History,” p. 138.
32. This immunity of enemy property in neutral ships, guaranteed by the
Declaration of Paris in 1856, has been to a large extent nullified in recent practice
by extension of the lists of contraband, to say nothing of the violations of all law in
submarine warfare.—Editor.
33. “Naval Strategy,” pp. 303–304, 356–367, 381–382.
34. “Naval Administration and Warfare” (1903), pp. 5–11.
35. “Naval Administration and Warfare” (1903). pp. 26–31.
36. “Naval Administration and Warfare” (1903), pp. 46–48.
37. These bureaus are seven in number: Yards and Docks, Navigation,
Ordnance, Construction and Repairs, Steam Engineering, Supplies and Accounts,
and Medicine and Surgery. The Chief of Naval Operations, whose office was
created in 1915, stands second to the Secretary and acts as his expert professional
adviser, with the specific task of co-ordinating the work of the navy, preparing
plans, and directing operations in war. He is, ex officio, a member of the General
Board of the Navy, created in 1900, which serves as an expert advisory body.—
Editor.
38. “Retrospect and Prospect,” pp. 258–259, 270–272.
39. “The Interest of America in Sea Power” (1896), pp. 192–200.
40. Bombardment of undefended ports, towns, etc., is forbidden by
Convention IX of the Hague conference of 1907, with the broad concession,
however, that depots, store houses, and all constructions that serve military
purposes may be destroyed.—Editor.
41. “The Influence of Sea Power upon History” (1660–1783), pp. 197–200.
Admiral Mahan’s major historical works treat consecutively the history of naval
warfare from 1660 to 1815; and his essays and shorter studies cover subsequent
wars. The selections in Part II are arranged in chronological order.—Editor.
42. “The Influence of Sea Power upon History,” pp. 63–67.
43. An interesting proof of the weight attributed to the naval power of Great
Britain by a great military authority will be found in the opening chapter of
Jomini’s “History of the Wars of the French Revolution.” He lays down, as a
fundamental principle of European policy, that an unlimited expansion of naval
force should not be permitted to any nation which cannot be approached by land,—
a description which can apply only to Great Britain.
44. “The Influence of Sea Power upon History,” pp. 323–329. By the Treaty of
Paris, 1763, England secured Canada, all French possessions east of the
Mississippi, and Florida; she also retained Gibraltar and Minorca, and gained
ascendancy in India.—Editor.
45. See Annual Register, 1762, p. 63.
46. Campbell, “Lives of the Admirals.”
47. These remarks, always true, are doubly so now since the introduction of
steam. The renewal of coal is a want more frequent, more urgent, more
peremptory, than any known to the sailing-ship. It is vain to look for energetic
naval operations distant from coal stations. It is equally vain to acquire distant
coaling stations without maintaining a powerful navy; they will but fall into the
hands of the enemy. But the vainest of all delusions is the expectation of bringing
down an enemy by commerce-destroying alone, with no coaling stations outside
the national boundaries.
48. “Types of Naval Officers,” pp. 14–17.
49. A celebrated French admiral, in command at the battles of Beachy Head
(1690) and La Hogue (1692).—Editor.
50. The most famous of these were issued in 1665 by the Duke of York,
afterward James II, who was then Lord High Admiral. They were revised but not
greatly altered in 1740 and again in 1756.—Editor.
51. Byng’s offense, for which he was sentenced to be shot, occurred in an
action with a French squadron off Minorca in 1756.—Editor.
52. “The Influence of Sea Power upon History,” pp. 377–380.
53. De Grasse, whose victory over Graves off the Chesapeake forced the
surrender of Cornwallis, was afterward defeated by Rodney in the famous battle of
the Saints’ Passage, April 12, 1782. Three days earlier, De Grasse had neglected an
opportunity to attack in superior force.
While the battle of the Saints’ Passage is more celebrated, the action here
described better illustrates Rodney’s merits as a tactician. In his later years Rodney
wrote that he “thought little of his victory of the 12th of April,” and looked upon
this earlier action as “one by which, but for the disobedience of his captains, he
might have gained immortal renown.”—Mahan, “Types of Naval Officers,” p. 203.
—Editor.
54. The black ships, in position A, represent the English ships bearing down
upon the French center and rear. The line v r is the line of battle from van to rear
before bearing down. The positions v´, r´ are those of the van and rear ships after
hauling up on the port tack, when the French wore.—Editor.
55. In a severe reprimand addressed to Captain Carkett, commanding the
leading ship of the English line, by Rodney, he says: “Your leading in the manner
you did, induced others to follow so bad an example; and thereby, forgetting that
the signal for the line was at only two cables’ length distance from each other, the
van division was led by you to more than two leagues distance from the center
division, which was thereby exposed to the greatest strength of the enemy, and not
properly supported” (Life, Vol. I, p. 351). By all rules of tactical common-sense it
would seem that the other ships should have taken their distance from their next
astern, that is, should have closed toward the center. In conversation with Sir
Gilbert Blane, who was not in this action, Rodney stated that the French line
extended Your leagues in length, “as if De Guichen thought we meant to run away
from him” (Naval Chronicle, Vol. XXV, p. 402).
56. “The Influence of Sea Power upon History,” pp. 387–391, 397.
57. Now Cape Haitien, Haiti.—Editor.
58. Bancroft, “History of the United States.”
59. With the reinforcement brought by De Grasse, Lafayette’s army numbered
about 8,000; the troops brought by Washington and Rochambeau consisted of
2,000 Americans and 4,000 French.—Editor.
60. The action itself is more fully described in Mahan’s “Major Operations of
the Navies in the War of American Independence,” from which the diagram on
page 167 is taken. In the diagram, a a indicates the positions of the two fleets when
De Grasse came out of the bay; b b, the positions when the order to engage was
given; f, Graves’s flagship, and h, Hood. Having approached the enemy with his
twelve leading ships, Graves gave the order to bear down and engage, though he
still kept the signal for “line ahead” flying. Whether through inability or
misinterpretation of orders, the rear under Hood failed to get in range.
Hood afterward criticised his superior severely on the grounds, (1) that the
fleet was not brought into proper position to engage, and (2) that, upon engaging,
the “line ahead” signal should have been hauled down. He interpreted this signal
as meaning that no ship could close beyond a line through the flagship and parallel
to the enemy line.
Graves next day issued a memorandum to the effect that the line ahead was a
means to an end, not an end in itself, and “that the signal for battle should not be
rendered ineffective by strict adherence to the former.” The confusion was such as
frequently arose in this period of transition from one system of tactics to another.
—Editor.
61. “Types of Naval Officers,” pp. 35–37, 41.
62. Chevalier, “Mar. Fran, sous la République,” p. 49.
63. Nap. to Decrès, Aug. 29, 1805.
64. Troude, “Batailles Nav.,” Vol. III, p. 370.
65. Commodore de Rions, a member of the nobility, who was imprisoned at
Toulon and afterward fled from the country.—Editor.
66. “Types of Naval Officers,” pp. 308–317. The “Glorious First of June” is one
of the most important naval actions in the wars of the French Revolution, and
illustrates the work of an officer who stood in his own day conspicuously at the
head of his profession. The selection is interesting also as showing that, when it
suited his purpose, Admiral Mahan could write with notable ease and pictorial
vigor.—Editor.
67. “The Influence of Sea Power upon the French Revolution and Empire,”
Vol. II, pp. 42–47. The campaign is treated more fully in “The Life of Nelson,” Vol.
II, p. 70 ff.—Editor.
68. Nelson’s Letters and Dispatches, Vol. IV, p. 295.
69. Nelson’s Dispatches, Vol. IV., p. 355.
70. Nelson’s Dispatches, April 9, 1801, Vol. IV, pp. 339, 341.
71. “The Influence of Sea Power upon the French Revolution and Empire,” Vol.
II, pp. 117–120.
72. Ibid., p. 106.
73. See “Naval Chronicle,” Vol. X, pp. 508, 510; Vol. XI, p. 81; Nelson’s
Dispatches, Vol. V, p. 438.
74. Pellew’s “Life of Lord Sidmouth,” Vol. II, p. 237.
75. Nelson’s Dispatches, Vol. IV, p. 452.
76. “The Influence of Sea Power upon the French Revolution and Empire,”
Vol. II, pp. 184–197, 199–202, 356–357.
77. “The Influence of Sea Power upon the French Revolution and Empire”,
Vol. II, p. 181.
78. Napoleon to St. Cyr, Sept. 2, 1805.
79. Napoleon to Decrès, Sept. 15.
80. Ibid., Sept. 4.
81. Nelson’s Dispatches, Vol. VII, p. 80.
82. The following account of Nelson’s arrival and his plan of battle is taken
from the fuller narrative in “The Life of Nelson,” Vol. II, pp. 339–351.—Editor.
83. Inserted by author.
84. Here the narrative is resumed from “The Influence of Sea Power upon the
French Revolution and Empire.”—Editor.
85. Fyffe’s “History of Modern Europe,” Vol. I, p. 281.
86. To the King of Wurtemburg, April 2, 1811; “Corr.,” Vol. XXII, p. 19.
87. “Sea Power in its Relations with the War of 1812,” Vol. I, pp. 295–308; Vol.
II, pp. 121–125.
88. Kingsford’s “History of Canada,” Vol. VIII, p. 111.
89. Drummond to Prevost, Oct. 20, 1814. Report on Canadian Archives, 1896,
Upper Canada, p. 9.
90. Ibid., Oct. 15.
91. Prevost to Bathurst, Aug. 14, 1814. Report on Canadian Archives, 1896,
Lower Canada, p. 36.
92. “Travels,” J. M. Duncan, Vol. II, p. 27.
93. “Life of Brock,” p. 193.
94. Smyth, “Précis of the Wars in Canada,” p. 167.
95. The United States Secretary of War.—Editor.
96. December 17, 1813. Captain’s Letters, Navy Department.
97. “Lessons of the War with Spain” (1899), pp. 75–85.
98. Ibid., p. 157.
99. In this number is included the Emperador Carlos V, which, however, did
not accompany the other four under Cervera.
100. “Lessons of the War with Spain” (1899), pp. 184–191.
102. The Kobe Chronicle, February 25, 1904; an English newspaper published
in Japan.
103. “Naval Administration and Warfare,” Retrospect upon the War between
Russia and Japan (March, 1906) pp. 167–173.
105. “The rise or fall of the Empire depends upon to-day’s battle. Let every
man do his utmost.”—Editor.
106. “The Interest of America in Sea Power,” Hawaii and Our Future Sea
Power (1893), pp. 51–54.
107. “The Problem of Asia” (1900), pp. 133–144.
108. “The writer has been assured, by an authority in which he entirely trusts,
that to a proposition made to Great Britain (at the time of the Spanish-American
War) to enter into a combination to constrain the Use of our power,—as Japan was
five years ago constrained by the joint action of Russia, France, and Germany,—the
reply was not only a passive refusal to enter into such combination, but an
assurance of active resistance to it, if attempted.”—Mahan, “The Problem of Asia”
(1900), p. 187.—Editor.
109. “Retrospect and Prospect” (1902), pp. 15–17.
110. “The Interest of America in International Conditions,” The Open Door
(1910), pp. 198–202.
111. “The Interest of America in International Conditions” (1910), pp. 38–46.
112. The Mail, April 20, 1910.
113. “The Interest of America in International Conditions” (1910), pp. 161–164.
114. “Retrospect and Prospect,” Considerations Governing the Disposition of
Navies (1902), pp. 151–170.
115. “Naval Strategy” (1911), pp. 104–112.
116. Since this was written, a new Treaty of Alliance between Great Britain and
Japan, operative for ten years, has been signed—July 13, 1911. By its terms either
Power will be released from its military obligation to the other, as against a third
with which it may have a treaty of general arbitration, such as that framed between
Great Britain and the United States.
117. Since these words were written such formal announcement has been
made by a member of the British Cabinet, Sir Edward Grey, the Secretary for
Foreign Affairs, on May 23, 1911. The Mail, May 24, 1911.
118. “Some Neglected Aspects of War” (1907), pp. 171–191.
119. The Napoleonic Wars, the War of 1812, and the American Civil War. For
the effect of commerce warfare in these struggles, see pp. 91–99.—Editor.
120. Vol. I, pp. 146–148.
121. The “Times” of October 14, 1905.
122. Indirect, I presume.
123. “Some Neglected Aspects of War,” The Peace Conference and the Moral
Aspect of War (1899), pp. 45–52.
124. Lest this be misunderstood to be an allusion to the recent measures of
Japan in Korea, I renew here the caution that in this article all references to the
Peace Conference are to that of 1899.
125. “Some Neglected Aspects of War,” The Hague Conference and the
Practical Aspect of War (1907), pp. 75–80, 90–93.
TRANSCRIBER’S NOTES
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variations in spelling.
2. Retained archaic, non-standard, and uncertain spellings
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3. Re-indexed footnotes using numbers and collected
together at the end of the last chapter.
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4. Be able to compute probabilities using an exponential probability distribution.

c. P(1.0  x  1.25) = 2(.25) = .50

d. P(1.20 < x < 1.5) = 2(.30) = .60

b. P(x < 15) = .10(5) = .50

c. P(12  x  18) = .10(6) = .60

b. P(x  130) = (1/20) (130 - 120) = 0.50

c. P(x > 135) = (1/20) (140 - 135) = 0.25

b. P(.25 < x < .75) = 1 (.50) = .50

c. P(x  .30) = 1 (.30) = .30

d. P(x > .60) = 1 (.40) = .40

5. a. Length of Interval = 12 – 8.5 = 3.5

b. P(x £ 10) = (10 - 8.5)(1/ 3.5) = 1.5 / 3.5 = .4286

c. P(x ³ 11) = (12 -11)(1/ 3.5) = 1/ 3.5 = .2857

d. P(9.5 £ x £ 11.5) = (11.5- 9.5)(1/ 3.5) = 2 / 3.5 = .5714

e. P(x ³ 9) = (12 - 9)(1/ 3.5) = 3/ 3.5 = .8571

Solving for b - a , we have b - a = 1/.00625 = 160

a = 136 – ½(160) = 56 and b = 136 + ½(160) = 216

b. P(100 £ x £ 200) = (200 -100)(.00625) = .6250

c. P(x ³150) = (216 -150)(.00625) = .4125

d. P(x £ 80) = (80 - 56)(.00625) = .1500

7. a. P(10,000  x < 12,000) = 2000 (1 / 5000) = .40

b. P(10,000  x < 14,000) = 4000 (1 / 5000) = .80

c. A bid of $15,000 gives a probability of 1 of getting the property.

d. Yes, the bid that maximizes expected profit is $13,000.

The probability of getting the property with a bid of $13,000 is

P(10,000  x < 13,000) = 3000 (1 / 5000) = .60.

EP ($13,000) = .6 ($3000) + .4 (0) = $1800.

EP ($15,000) = 1 ($1000) + 0 (0) = $1,000.

70 80 90 100 110 120 130

a. P(z  1.5) = .9332

b. P(z  1.0) = .8413

c. P(1  z  1.5) = P(z  1.5) - P(z < 1) = .9932 - .8413 = .0919

a. P(z  -1) = .1587

b. P(z ≥ -1) = 1 - P(z < -1) = 1 - .1587 = .8413

c. P(z ≥ -1.5) = 1 - P(z < -1.5) = 1 - .0668 = .9332

d. P(-2.5 ≤ z) = 1 - P(z < -2.5) = 1 - .0062 = .9938

e. P(-3 < z ≤ 0) = P(z ≤ 0) - P(z ≤ -3) = .5000 - .0013 = .4987

a. P(0 ≤ z ≤ .83) = .7967 - .5000 = .2967

b. P(-1.57 ≤ z ≤ 0) = .5000 - .0582 = .4418

c. P(z > .44) = 1 - .6700 = .3300

d. P(z ≥ -.23) = 1 - .4090 = .5910

e. P(z < 1.20) = .8849

f. P(z ≤ -.71) = .2389

a. The z value corresponding to a cumulative probability of .9750 is z = 1.96.

b. The z value here also corresponds to a cumulative probability of .9750: z = 1.96.

c. The z value corresponding to a cumulative probability of .7291 is z = .61.

d. Area to the left of z is 1 - .1314 = .8686. So z = 1.12.

e. The z value corresponding to a cumulative probability of .6700 is z = .44.

f. The area to the left of z is .6700. So z = .44.