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Chapter
8 Forecasting Demand
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
1. a. There is no apparent trend in the data. The naïve forecast method, exponential
smoothing or the simple moving average would be appropriate for estimating the
average.
b. The primary external factors that can be forecasted three days in advance and can
appreciably affect air quality are wind velocity and temperature inversions.
c. Weather conditions cannot be forecast two summers in advance. Medium-term causal
factors affecting air quality are population, regulations and policies affecting wood
burning, mass transit, use of sand and salt on roads, relocation of the airport, and
scheduling of major tourism events such as parades, car races, and stock shows.
d. In the area of technological forecasting, qualitative methods of forecasting are best. One
such approach is the Delphi method, whereby the consensus of a panel of experts is
sought. Here we would survey experts in the fields of electric-powered vehicles, coal-
fired combustion for electric utilities, and development of alternatives to sand and salt on
roads. We hope to determine whether to expect any technological breakthroughs
sufficient to affect air quality within the next 10 years.
2. What’s Happening? Our objective in writing this discussion question is to ensure students
recognize the difference between sales and demand. Demand forecasting techniques require
demand data. Michael is making the common mistake of using sales data as the basis for
demand forecasts. Sales are generally equal to the lesser of demand or inventory. Say that
inventory matches average demand at a particular location and is 100 newspapers. However,
for the current edition, demand is less than average, say 90. Michael enters sales (which
happens to be equal to demand in this period) into the forecasting system, resulting in an
inventory reduction at that location for the next edition. Now suppose that demand for the
next edition is 110. But because inventory has been reduced to 90, only 90 newspapers will
be sold. Michael would then enter sales (which happens to be equal to inventory, not
demand) into the forecasting system. This approach ratchets downward and tends to starve
the distribution system. Because the publication is not reliably available, some customers
eventually stop looking for What’s Happening? and demand truly declines. It is important
that data used for demand forecasting are demand data, not sales data.
8-1
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education Limited
8-2 ⚫ PART 2 ⚫ Customer Demand Management
PROBLEMS
Causal Methods: Linear Regression
1. Garcia’s Garage
a. The results, using the Regression Analysis Solver of OM Explorer, are:
The regression equation is Y = 42.464 + 2.452X
b. Forecasts
Y (Sep) = 42.464 + 2.452 (9) = 64.532 or 65
Y (Oct) = 42.464 + 2.452 (10) = 66.984 or 67
Y (Nov) = 42.464 + 2.452 (11) = 71.888 or 72
2. Hydrocarbon Processing Factory
Using the Regression Analysis Solver of OM Explorer, we get:
a. Relationship to forecast Y from X

Y = 0.888 + 0.622 X
b. Strength of relationship between Y and X is moderate as indicated by
R2 = 0.450

Forecasting Demand ⚫ CHAPTER 8 ⚫ 8-3
R = 0.671
Standard Error of Estimate = 0.331
3. Ohio Swiss Milk
The results from the Regression Analysis Solver are:
a. Y = 1,121.212. − 0.282 X
b. R2 = 0.888
R = −0.942 indicates a fairly strong negative relationship. Increases in costs explain
89% of the decreases in gallons sold
c. Y = 1,121.212 − 0.282 (325) = 1,029.562
Because these numbers are in terms of thousands of gallons, the cost per gallon is $1.03
at this production level.
4. Manufacturing firm skills test
The results from the Least Square Linear Regression module of POM for Windows are:

a. From the output, the relationship is

Rating = 4.184 + 0.943 (Score)
b. Score = 80
Rating = 4.184 + 0.943 (80) = 79.624
c. R = R2 = 0.934 = 0.966
There is a very strong positive relationship. Increases in scores explain 93% of increases
in ratings.
5. Materials handing
The results from the POM for Windows’ least squares-linear regression module are:

a. From the output shown, the relationship is

Cost = 323.6223 + 131.7165 (Age)
b. Annual Cost to maintain a three-year old tractor
y = 323.6223 + 131.7165 (3) = $718.77
Annual Cost to maintain a fleet of 20 three-year-old tractors
= (20) ($718.77) = $14,375.44
Time-Series Methods
6. Computer Store
a.
Week Forecast
6 30.6
7 32.2
8 33.6
9 35.4
10 36.4
The forecast for week 11 is 34.4 rentals.
b. The mean absolute deviation as of the end of week 10 is 5.16 rentals.
7. Computer Success

a. The three-month moving average forecast and forecast error calculations are shown in
the table below.
Actual Three-Month Simple Moving Absolute Absolute

Month Squared Error
Sales ($) Average Forecast Error Percent Error
January 3,000.00
February 3,400.00
March 3,700.00
April 4,100.00
May 4,700.00 (3,400+3,700+4,100)/3=3,733.33 966.67 20.57 934,444.44
June 5,700.00 (3,700+4,100+4,700)/3=4,166.67 1,533.33 26.90 2,351,111.11
July 6,300.00 (4,100+4,700+5,700)/3=4,833.33 1,466.67 23.28 2,151,111.11
August 7,200.00 (4,700+5,700+6,300)/3=5,566.67 1,633.33 22.69 2,667,777.78
September 6,400.00 (5,700+6,300+7,200)/3=6,400.00 - - -
October 4,600.00 (6,300+7,200+6,400)/3=6,633.33 2,033.33 44.20 4,134,444.44
November 4,200.00 (7,200+6,400+4,600)/3=6,066.67 1,866.67 44.44 3,484,444.44
December 3,900.00 (6,400+4,600+4,200)/3=5,066.67 1,166.67 29.91 1,361,111.11
Mean Absolute Deviation (Error) 1,333.33
Mean Absolute Percent Error 26.50
Mean Squared Error 2,135,555.56
b. The four-month moving average forecast and forecast error calculations are shown in
the table below.
Actual Sales Four-Month Simple Moving Average Absolute Absolute

Month Squared Error
($) Forecast Error Percent Error
January 3,000.00
February 3,400.00
March 3,700.00
April 4,100.00
May 4,700.00 (3,000+3,400+3,700+4,100)/4=3,550.00 1,150.00 24.47 1,322,500.00
June 5,700.00 (3,400+3,700+4,100+4,700)/4=3,975.00 1,725.00 30.26 2,975,625.00
July 6,300.00 (3,700+4,100+4,700+5,700)/4=4,550.00 1,750.00 27.78 3,062,500.00
August 7,200.00 (4,100+4,700+5,700+6,300)/4=5,200.00 2,000.00 27.78 4,000,000.00
September 6,400.00 (4,700+5,700+6,300+7,200)/4=5,975.00 425.00 6.64 180,625.00
October 4,600.00 (5,700+6,300+7,200+6,400)/4=6,400.00 1,800.00 39.13 3,240,000.00
November 4,200.00 (6,300+7,200+6,400+4,600)/4=6,125.00 1,925.00 45.83 3,705,625.00
December 3,900.00 (7,200+6,400+4,600+4,200)/4=5,600.00 1,700.00 43.59 2,890,000.00

c. As seen in the tables above, the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the three-month
moving average forecast is $1,333.33 and the four-month moving average forecast has a
somewhat greater MAD of $1,559.38. Thus, the three-month moving average method is
recommended.
d. The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) provides a similar result with the three-month
moving average forecast (MAPE=26.50%) out performing the four-month moving
average (MAPE=30.69%) method.
e. In terms of mean squared error (MSE) the three-month moving average forecast (MSE
of $2,135,555.56) is again recommended over the four-month moving average forecast
(MSE of $2,672,109.38).
8. Karl’s Copiers
The forecast for week 6 is 29.45 service calls (enter your response rounded to two decimal
places.)

9. Computer Success (part 2)
a. The three-month weighted moving average forecast and forecast error calculations are
shown in the table below.
Actual Three-Month Weighted Moving Average Absolute Absolute

Month Squared Error
Sales ($) Forecast Error Percent Error
January 3,000.00
February 3,400.00
March 3,700.00
April 4,100.00 3,000(1/8)+3,400(3/8)+3,700(4/8)=3,500.00 600.00 14.63 360,000.00
May 4,700.00 3,400(1/8)+3,700(3/8)+4,100(4/8)=3,862.50 837.50 17.82 701,406.25
June 5,700.00 3,700(1/8)+4,100(3/8)+4,700(4/8)=4,350.00 1,350.00 23.68 1,822,500.00
July 6,300.00 4,100(1/8)+4,700(3/8)+5,700(4/8)=5,125.00 1,175.00 18.65 1,380,625.00
August 7,200.00 4,700(1/8)+5,700(3/8)+6,300(4/8)=5,875.00 1,325.00 18.40 1,755,625.00
September 6,400.00 5,700(1/8)+6,300(3/8)+7,200(4/8)=6,675.00 275.00 4.30 75,625.00
October 4,600.00 6,300(1/8)+7,200(3/8)+6,400(4/8)=6,687.50 2,087.50 45.38 4,357,656.25
November 4,200.00 7,200(1/8)+6,400(3/8)+4,600(4/8)=5,600.00 1,400.00 33.33 1,960,000.00
December 3,900.00 6,400(1/8)+4,600(3/8)+4,200(4/8)=4,625.00 725.00 18.59 525,625.00
b. The exponential smoothing forecast (α=0.6) and forecast error calculations are shown in
the table below.
Actual Absolute Absolute

Month Exponentially Smoothed Forecast (α=0.60) Squared Error
Sales ($) Error Percent Error
January 3,000.00 3,200.00
February 3,400.00 .6(3,000)+.4(3,200.00)=3,080.00
March 3,700.00 .6(3,400)+.4(3,080.00)=3,272.00
April 4,100.00 .6(3,700)+.4(3,272.00)=3,528.80 571.20 13.93 326,269.44
May 4,700.00 .6(4,100)+.4(3,528.80)=3,871.52 828.48 17.63 686,379.11
June 5,700.00 .6(4,700)+.4(3,871.52)=4,368.61 1,331.39 23.36 1,772,604.66
July 6,300.00 .6(5,700)+.4(4,368.61)=5,167.44 1,132.56 17.98 1,282,684.91
August 7,200.00 .6(6,300)+.4(5,167.44)=5,846.98 1,353.02 18.79 1,830,670.48
September 6,400.00 .6(7,200)+.4(5,846.98)=6,658.79 258.79 4.04 66,972.74
October 4,600.00 .6(6,400)+.4(6,658.79)=6,503.52 1,903.52 41.38 3,623,374.55
November 4,200.00 .6(4,600)+.4(6,503.52)=5,361.41 1,161.41 27.65 1,348,865.16
December 3,900.00 .6(4,200)+.4(5,361.41)=4,664.56 764.56 19.60 584,556.00

c. As seen in the tables above, the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the exponential
smoothing forecast is $1,033.88 and the three-month weighted moving average forecast has
a somewhat greater MAD of $1,086.11. Thus, the exponential smoothing method is
recommended.
d. The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) provides a similar result with the exponential
smoothing forecast (MAPE=20.49%) out performing the three-month weighted moving
average (MAPE=21.64%) method.
e. In terms of mean squared error (MSE) the exponential smoothing forecast (MSE of
$1,280,264.12) is again recommended over the three-month weighted moving average
forecast (MSE of $1,437,673.61).
10. Convenience Store
The trend progression with regression forecast:
The forecast for week 13 is 747 (enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.)
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) are:
MAD MAPE
37.66 5.51%
The exponential smoothing forecast:
The forecast for week 13 is 715 (response rounded to nearest whole number.)
The mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) are:
MAD MAPE
49.85 7.08%
Based on MAD, the best method is trend projection with regression.

Based on MAPE, the best method is trend projection with regression.
11. Community Federal
The trend projection with regression forecast:
Period Forecast (Ft)

13 763
14 766
15 770
16 773
12. Heartville General Hospital

8-10⚫ PART 2 ⚫ Customer Demand Management
If MAD is the performance criterion chosen by the administration, it would choose trend
progression with regression.
If MSE is the performance criterion chosen by the administration, it would choose trend
projection with regression.
If MAPE is the performance criterion chosen by the administration, it would choose trend
projection with regression.
13. Calculator sales
The trend projection with regression forecast for weeks 10–13 is:
Period Forecast (Ft)

10 62.92
11 64.97
12 67.02
13 69.07
The error measures are:
CFE MSE σ MAD MAPE

0 9.54 3.28 2.71 5.06%
The coefficient of determination (r2) is 0.75 (response rounded to two decimal places.)

Forecasting Demand ⚫ CHAPTER 8 ⚫8-11
14. Krispee Crunchies
The Trend Projection with Regression Solver of OM Explorer gives the following results:

Detailed analysis from the TPWorksheet is:
If current conditions remain in place, the r2 of better than 80% provide some measure of
confidence that the downward trend (estimated at 22,030 boxes per month) will continue.
15. Forrest’s boxes of chocolates
a. One possible estimated forecast for Year 4:

Quarter Forecast
1 3,700
2 2,700
3 1,900
4 6,500
14,800
b. Multiplicative seasonal method

Average
Seasonal Seasonal Seasonal Seasonal
Quarter Year 1 Factor Year 2 Factor Year 3 Factor Factor
1 3,000 1.20 3,300 1.1 3502 1.03 1.11
2 1,700 0.68 2,100 0.7 2448 0.72 0.70
3 900 0.36 1,500 0.5 1768 0.52 0.46
4 4,400 1.76 5,100 1.7 5882 1.73 1.73
Totals 10,000 12,000 13,600
Averages 2,500 3,000 3,400
Forecast for year 4, 14,800. Average = 3,700.
Quarter Average Factor Forecast
1 3,700 1.11 4,107
2 3,700 0.70 2,590
3 3,700 0.46 1,702
4 3,700 1.73 6,401
14,800

This technique forecasts that the third-quarter sales will decrease compared to sales for
the third quarter of the third year. Betcha thought it would increase. Mamma always
said: “Life is full of surprises!”
Just to make sure, we find confirmation of our calculations using the Seasonal
Forecasting Solver of OM Explorer:
16. Alaina’s Garden Center
Average
Seasonal Seasonal
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Seasonal
Factor Factor
Factor
1 45 0.1989 67 0.2386 0.2188
2 339 1.4983 444 1.5815 1.5399
3 299 1.3215 329 1.1719 1.2467
4 222 0.9812 283 1.0080 0.9946
Totals 905 1,123
Averages 226 281
Forecast for year 3 1850
Average
Average Year 3
Quarter Seasonal
Forecast Forecast
Factor
1 463 0.2188 101
2 463 1.5399 712
3 463 1.2467 577
4 463 0.9946 460
1,850

17. Utility company
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

1 103.5 94.7 118.6 109.3
2 126.1 116.0 141.2 131.6
3 144.5 137.1 159.0 149.5
4 166.1 152.5 178.2 169.0
Totals 540.2 500.3 597.0 559.4
Averages 135.05 125.075 149.25 139.85
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Average
Seasonal Index
1 0.7664 0.7571 0.7946 0.7816 0.7749
2 0.9337 0.9274 0.9410 0.9410 0.9371
3 1.0700 1.0961 1.0653 1.0690 1.0751
4 1.2299 1.2193 1.1940 1.2084 1.2129
Totals 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Forecast for Year 5

Quarter Average Demand Adjusted
per Quarter Demand
1 150 116.235 = 116
2 150 140.565 = 141
3 150 161.265 = 161
4 150 181.935 = 182
600 600
Turning to the Seasonal Forecasting Solver of OM Explorer, we get the same results:

18. Franklin Tooling
(i) Naïve (1-Period Moving Average) Forecasting results
Demand for 1-Period Moving Average (Naïve) Forecast

Component ABS Square Percent
135.AG Forecast Error
(Error) (Error) (Error)
137
136 137.00
143 136.00
136 143.00
141 136.00 5.00 5.00 25.00 3.55
128 141.00 -13.00 13.00 169.00 10.16
149 128.00 21.00 21.00 441.00 14.09
136 149.00 -13.00 13.00 169.00 9.56
134 136.00 -2.00 2.00 4.00 1.49
142 134.00 8.00 8.00 64.00 5.63
125 142.00 -17.00 17.00 289.00 13.60
134 125.00 9.00 9.00 81.00 6.72
118 134.00 -16.00 16.00 256.00 13.56
131 118.00 13.00 13.00 169.00 9.92
132 131.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.76
124 132.00 -8.00 8.00 64.00 6.45
121 124.00 -3.00 3.00 9.00 2.48
127 121.00 6.00 6.00 36.00 4.72
118 127.00 -9.00 9.00 81.00 7.63
120 118.00 2.00 2.00 4.00 1.67
115 120.00 -5.00 5.00 25.00 4.35
106 115.00 -9.00 9.00 81.00 8.49
120 106.00 14.00 14.00 196.00 11.67
113 120.00 -7.00 7.00 49.00 6.19
121 113.00 8.00 8.00 64.00 6.61
119 121.00 -2.00 2.00 4.00 1.68
Forecast 119.00
CFE -17.00
MAD 8.68
MSE 103.68
MAPE 6.86

(ii) 3-Period Moving Average
Demand for 3-Period Moving Average Forecast

137
136
143
136 138.67
141 138.33 2.67 2.67 7.11 1.89
128 140.00 -12.00 12.00 144.00 9.38
149 135.00 14.00 14.00 196.00 9.40
136 139.33 -3.33 3.33 11.11 2.45
134 137.67 -3.67 3.67 13.44 2.74
142 139.67 2.33 2.33 5.44 1.64
125 137.33 -12.33 12.33 152.11 9.87
134 133.67 0.33 0.33 0.11 0.25
118 133.67 -15.67 15.67 245.44 13.28
131 125.67 5.33 5.33 28.44 4.07
132 127.67 4.33 4.33 18.78 3.28
124 127.00 -3.00 3.00 9.00 2.42
121 129.00 -8.00 8.00 64.00 6.61
127 125.67 1.33 1.33 1.78 1.05
118 124.00 -6.00 6.00 36.00 5.08
120 122.00 -2.00 2.00 4.00 1.67
115 121.67 -6.67 6.67 44.44 5.80
106 117.67 -11.67 11.67 136.11 11.01
120 113.67 6.33 6.33 40.11 5.28
113 113.67 -0.67 0.67 0.44 0.59
121 113.00 8.00 8.00 64.00 6.61
119 118.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.84
Forecast 117.67
CFE -39.33
MAD 5.94
MSE 55.59
MAPE 4.78

(iii) Exponential Smoothing, with =.28
Demand for Exponential Smoothing Forecast

137 137.00
136 137.00
143 136.72
136 138.48
141 137.78 3.22 3.22 10.34 2.28
128 138.68 -10.68 10.68 114.17 8.35
149 135.69 13.31 13.31 177.07 8.93
136 139.42 -3.42 3.42 11.69 2.51
134 138.46 -4.46 4.46 19.91 3.33
142 137.21 4.79 4.79 22.92 3.37
125 138.55 -13.55 13.55 183.68 10.84
134 134.76 -0.76 0.76 0.57 0.57
118 134.55 -16.55 16.55 273.76 14.02
131 129.91 1.09 1.09 1.18 0.83
132 130.22 1.78 1.78 3.18 1.35
124 130.72 -6.72 6.72 45.11 5.42
121 128.84 -7.84 7.84 61.40 6.48
127 126.64 0.36 0.36 0.13 0.28
118 126.74 -8.74 8.74 76.42 7.41
120 124.29 -4.29 4.29 18.44 3.58
115 123.09 -8.09 8.09 65.48 7.04
106 120.83 -14.83 14.83 219.82 13.99
120 116.67 3.33 3.33 11.06 2.77
113 117.61 -4.61 4.61 21.21 4.08
121 116.32 4.68 4.68 21.94 3.87
119 117.63 1.37 1.37 1.88 1.15
Forecast 118.01
CFE -70.62
MAD 6.29
MSE 61.88
MAPE 5.11

(iv) Trend Projection with Regression: model Y=143.1613-1.1289X obtained from the Time Series Forecasting
Solver of OM Explorer for Trend Projection with Regression
Demand for Trend Projection with Regression

137 142.03
136 140.90
143 139.77
136 138.64
141 137.52 3.48 3.48 12.12 2.47
128 136.39 -8.39 8.39 70.39 6.55
149 135.26 13.74 13.74 188.76 9.22
136 134.13 1.87 1.87 3.49 1.37
134 133.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 0.74

142 131.87 10.13 10.13 102.53 7.13
125 130.74 -5.74 5.74 32.97 4.59
134 129.62 4.38 4.38 19.22 3.27
118 128.49 -10.49 10.49 109.92 8.89
131 127.36 3.64 3.64 13.26 2.78
132 126.23 5.77 5.77 33.30 4.37
124 125.10 -1.10 1.10 1.21 0.89
121 123.97 -2.97 2.97 8.83 2.45
127 122.84 4.16 4.16 17.28 3.27
118 121.71 -3.71 3.71 13.77 3.14
120 120.59 -0.59 0.59 0.34 0.49
115 119.46 -4.46 4.46 19.86 3.88
106 118.33 -12.33 12.33 151.97 11.63
120 117.20 2.80 2.80 7.85 2.33
113 116.07 -3.07 3.07 9.40 2.72
121 114.94 6.06 6.06 36.71 5.01
119 113.81 5.19 5.19 26.91 4.36
Forecast 112.68
CFE 9.36
MAD 5.23
MSE 40.06
MAPE 4.16

These results are confirmed by the output from the Time Series Forecasting Solver of OM
Explorer:

(v). As seen in the summary table, the Trend Projection with Regression method provides superior
results across all performance criteria.The reason that it does not have a CFE of 0.0 is that the
regression begins with period 1, but the error analysis begins in period 5.
CFE MAD MSE MAPE

1-Period Moving Average (Naïve) Forecast -17.00 8.68 103.68 6.86%
3-Period Moving Average Forecast -39.33 5.94 55.59 4.78%
Exponential Smoothing Forecast -70.62 6.29 61.88 5.11%
Trend Projection with Regression 9.36 5.23 40.06 4.16%

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They filled up the first table, putting a little child in here and there.
The tea and coffee steamed out their appetizing fragrance, and as
we had no vases, we placed mounds of fern, grasses and wild
flowers on the table. Every body ate and drank and had a good time.
The dishes were washed, wiped, and put on again, the children
summoned, and after a while all had been feasted. Then there was a
general clearing away, except at one end of the long table where the
fragments were collected for those who might get hungry by and by.
“ Sweets to the Sweet.” Page 181.
CHAPTER X.
FTER the eating and drinking, the elders gathered for a

sociable chat. It was as good as old-fashioned country
visiting. Modern calls seem to have carried away the
charm of social intercourse. After you have staid five
minutes you begin to think you must go. You cannot stop
to tell this or that bit of pleasantness, or get near to each other. But
there was no hurry here. Phases of religious experiences were
compared in a homely way, mixed up with the turning of a gown, or
buying of a new carpet. With others grace and gardening went hand
in hand. Such magnificent clove pinks, great double luscious
blossoms!—blue salvias that were quite a rarity—ivies, geraniums—
sick neighbors who enjoyed them—odd enough snatches where one
couldn’t understand.
Well, is it not the true living after all? Is religion the sacred Sunday
thing that must be laid by and not profaned by common every-day
uses? Did anyone ever hear of it wearing out? When these people
had exchanged thoughts on trials and mercies, faith that could see,
and weak faith that stumbled, compared and comforted each other,
who shall say it was not as good as a sermon? Why should we not
help to lift each other up in our common needs?—Great things come
to very few, only.
I lingered for quite a while, resting myself and answering questions
about mamma, baby and Mr. Duncan. It was so dreamily pleasant.
The sun high over head had found our little nook and was making it
all alight with quivering golden rays. Hill seemed to lapse into hill,
tree interlaced with tree, nook, corner and ravine added their
suggestive tender gloom. People came and went, groups of children
rushed in and devoured plates of fragments. They played various
games, and at last settled to a tremendous circle of Copenhagen.
“Where is your sister?” asked Winthrop, “I have been hunting
everywhere for her. Will you not take a walk with me?”
We had not gone very far before the bell rang.
“The children are to sing their carols now.”
“I suppose you have heard them fifty times?”
“Fifty-one will not surfeit me. Besides, I must look after my class.”
“O, bother! Look after me a little while. I am going back to the city
on Saturday, and I shall not see you for ever so long. I actually envy
that dolt of a Duncan who is sick at your house. I never met two girls
that I liked so well. I don’t see how there is any goodness left for the
parish.”
He uttered all this in a rather cross, aggrieved tone which made it
sound so comically I could not forbear laughing.
“O, you don’t know—I wonder if I might trust you with—a—
secret?”
He flushed to the roots of his hair. An uncomfortable chill went
over me.
“There are your Aunts!” I said, glad to be relieved from the sudden
embarrassment.
The carriage came up through the opening. Miss Lucy dressed in
white and looking very sweet. Papa went to speak to them.
The children were gathering from “near and from far.” We teachers
“counted noses,” begged the groups not to disperse, ran hither and
thither, and at last settled to the business before us. I was so glad
that Miss Churchill and Miss Lucy had reached us in time for the
singing. What if dresses were a little limp and stained and soiled,
hats awry and curls blown in tangles, there were hosts of happy
faces and lightsome, ringing voices.
Papa generally wrote a childish hymn for special occasions and
mamma arranged the music. They sang that, then several Easter
Carols.
Miss Lucy beckoned me toward her.
“How delightful it is!” she exclaimed. “And you’ve had a good time
all day long. I wish I was a little girl! Oh, they are not going to stop?
Please ask them to sing again. Would Christmas carols be out of
place?”
I mentioned it to papa who smiled in his sweet fashion and
acquiesced. We had the “Kings of Orient,” “Wonderful Night,” and
“Ring out merry bells for Christmas.” How sweet those young voices
sounded on the summer air! I was really proud of the children.
“Now,” began papa after the last echoes had dropped from the
tree-tops, “we must form a line for our homeward march. We have
had a pleasant day and enjoyed ourselves to the uttermost. Let us
thank God for this great blessing.”
They stood reverently until he dismissed them with the
benediction.
The wagons and carriages began to come in and were filled.
Some chose to walk home and let others ride. Mr. Trafford started to
form the ranks again. Fan came up and we paused to say a few
words to the Churchills, then to Mrs. Ryder who declared that
everything had been just delightful, and that she felt ten years
younger. Dick was very grave, I remarked, and scarcely spoke.
The very last of the line was Fan and Mr. Ogden. I gave them a
quick glance but was hurried on by the throng behind me, and
occupied with answering the childrens’ questions. Yet I wondered a
little what she had been about since dinner.
We heard it all afterward, but it is fresher just as it happened to
her. She and Jennie Ryder, and Annie and Chris Fellows went first to
gather ferns and mosses. Of course some of the young men
followed in their wake. When their basket had been filled they
strolled off two and two, presently losing sight of each other. The day
gave its touch of grace and romance to their lives. We all guessed
that Mr. Hunter cared for Annie Fellows, and were not much
surprised when we heard a little later, that they had “made up their
minds” during the ramble.
Fan and Dick strolled onward as well. Dick was unusually silent.
“Shall we go back?” Fan asked softly by and by.
“Go back!” and Dick looked surprised. “Not unless you are tired of
me.”
He seemed so down-hearted that Fan had not the courage to
confess even in her laughing way.
“I am afraid you have not enjoyed yourself very well. But you have
given a great pleasure to Mrs. Ryder—and Jennie could not have
come without her. She has to stay at home so much.”
“She is a splendid girl,” said Dick.
“Indeed she is. Dick, I have a bright idea! Why couldn’t we when
the evenings are a little cooler, get up a surprise party for her? It
would be jolly.”
“Yes.”
“But you do not seem very much interested.”
“I am interested in anything you like. Only I was thinking;” and he
paused to study her face.
“How queer you are!” with an embarrassed laugh.
“Am I? And you don’t like queerness—you don’t like me?”
Fan began to pull a fern leaf to pieces. It was an odd personal
question, but it could not mean anything. Still her heart beat
strangely, and her breath seemed to tangle as it came up.
“You know I like you of course,” in a sharp, saucy way, flinging out
her curls. “And you are good and pleasant and clever. Don’t I ask
favors first of you?”
“You never ask—for yourself.”
“Why, yes, it is because it pleases me.”
“I wish I could do something for you, alone.”
He snapped off a dry twig and began to break it into bits. Then he
kicked a stone out of the path, keeping his face away from her.
She experienced a peculiar embarrassment. Where was the
happy medium between warmth and coolness? She liked the
brotherly friendship they had fallen into. Was it friendship really?
“If I did want anything,—I should not hesitate—to come to you.”
Then they walked on in uncomfortable silence. It was very
awkward. In the new light coming to Fan, she felt there was
something unsaid. Was it best to get over it as rapidly as possible,
leave it behind?
“I think we must return. Papa may want me.”
He turned reluctantly. She quickened her pace at first.
“Don’t hurry. The day will come to an end soon enough. I should
like it to last a week, at least.”
“What an odd idea. We only want pleasant days to last.”
“Isn’t this pleasant to you?”
“Why—yes. All my days are pleasant for that matter. But I thought
it was beginning to bore you.”
He did not answer for quite a while, then he seemed to go far
away from the subject.
“It’s been nice for you at the Churchills.”
“Well—yes. Though I don’t want you to think I was pleased with
the notice because they are rich.”
“I know that does not make any difference with you.”
“But then for that matter your father is rich, too. And there are only
two children.”
“Yet I wish the home—was like yours.”
“With seven girls? You would have no comfort of your life if you
were the only boy among them,” and Fan laughed merrily.
“I would not mind trying it. Or at least—”
“Be warned in time,” and Fan shook her fore-finger threateningly.
“I can’t,” he exclaimed, with a sudden vehemence in his tone.
“Only—I’d be contented with one. Fanny, couldn’t you?—I mean—I
love you!”
It was all out then! Fan stood still and white while he was scarlet
and trembling. Both were surprised with a deep solemn awe, as if
amazed to have reached such a point.
“I didn’t mean to tell you so soon. I had hardly put it into shape
myself. But when I saw that Winthrop Ogden hanging round after
you, I knew it all then just like a flash. And why shouldn’t it be? They
have enough at home without you. And it would be so sweet! I
should think of nothing but your happiness. I dreamed it all out on
the porch last night, sitting alone with father.”
His eyes and voice were alike imploring, and he had spoken so
rapidly that it carried her right along. Now she put up her hand with a
gesture of pain.
“Oh, Dick, dear Dick, I am so sorry! I never thought of this!”
“Well!” with a kind of manly assurance, “think of it now. I will be
patient. We can ask your mother and see what she says.”
“Dick, I had better tell you just the truth. I am sorry there is any
need to say it. I like you very much in the pleasant, sisterly fashion
that has grown up between us. I do not believe it can ever be any
different. So it is best not to hope, not to plan—”
“Oh, Fanny, I cannot help it. How could I stop all at once?”
She was touched to the heart. What should she do? The tears
came into her eyes.
“I must have acted very wrongly to make you care so much for me
in this way. I can never, never forgive myself.”
He could not bear to hear the woman he loved blamed, and the
tears conquered him.
“It is nothing you have done, don’t think that,” he said earnestly.
“You can’t help being sweet and pretty, any more than that bird up
there can help singing. And you can’t help being just what I want.
You have treated me the same as you have others, that is, I mean
you never tried in any way to make me love you. It just came. And if
you will only try—”
“If I did try, Dick, I should be ashamed to confess that I could not
love so good, and tender, and true a man as you are. Then, perhaps
I might marry you, not loving you the best, which would be very, very
wicked, and ruin your happiness. Oh, Dick, forgive me and let me be
your sister or your friend, or else let me go quite away. I am so
sorry.”
They walked on until the sound of voices reached them. “Please
leave me here,” she entreated falteringly.
“I’m a great blundering chap, I know. I might have said it all better
—”
“It isn’t the saying, it is the thing itself.—O, Dick, don’t you see that
if I had loved you, one word would have been enough. I should be
too honest to tease or make excuses.”
“Yes, I suppose it is so,” in a slow, pathetic way that made Fan
think she was a miserable wretch. “And you can’t help it, I know. I’ll
try to—leave matters as they were, to be a—brother.”
He swallowed over a great lump in his throat, and turned away
without another word. When she found herself quite alone she threw
her trembling figure on the mossy tree-roots and sobbed bitterly. The
glad unconsciousness of girlhood was over.
“If he were not so good,” she thought, “or so rich, or so kind! If I
could find some fault. And that makes it appear all the worse in me.
Oh, papa, dear, what have I done? Why does every one want to—?”
And then she knew it was the old, old story, that had began way
back in Eden-days. People always did, and always would, and
sometimes there was a hitch and a snarl, and the thread broke.
She heard the bell calling the children together, so she rose, and
went to the tiny brook to bathe her face. But she felt so shame-faced
and cowardly that she did not dare join them until the singing was
done. Then Dick would be putting Mrs. Ryder in his wagon, and all
the others bustling about. No one would take much notice of her.
“O, here you are, run-away!” said a bright, rather imperious voice.
“Your sister has been worried to death about you. I thought I should
have to begin and search the mountains. Come along. I shall not
give you another chance to go astray.”
With that Winthrop Ogden took possession of her. The carriages
began to move on. The line was forming, and Mr. Endicott walked
down its length.
“I have Miss Fannie here, safe;” Mr. Ogden said, with a confident
nod.
Fan was so glad to escape observation that she uttered not a
word.
“My Uncle and Aunts are here waiting to speak to you.”
She suffered herself to be led thither, listened to the chat and
answered again without understanding a word.
They fell in the rear of the procession. Indeed she hardly noticed
how they lagged behind, until the tramp of the feet had quite a
distant sound.
“Where were you all the afternoon?” Mr. Ogden asked. “Your sister
and I started once to find you.”
“Did you?” absently.
“Yes. We did not know but the bears might have come out and
eaten you up.”
“Hardly.”
“You were not alone?”
“No. We went for ferns. Jennie Ryder and the rest.”
“Miss Ryder has been back this hour. She and her mother went
away with the very first—with Mr. Fairlie.”
“Oh,” indifferently.
“Well, what were you doing?”
“I won’t be questioned, there!”
“You are sure you were not in mischief?”
No answer to this, and a long silence.
“Well, Miss Obstinacy,” he began at length, “I really am afraid
something has occurred to ruffle your temper.”
“I do not know as you are compelled to suffer from it!” she
returned, positively provoked.
“Ah, but I couldn’t leave you here in a howling wilderness, with the
others miles ahead.”
“You exaggerate. Suppose we walk on and overtake them?”
“We are walking on.”
She was in no mood for badinage. Indeed, her heart smote her
bitterly for the pain she had unwittingly caused. She was upbraiding
herself and trying to think where the first false step had begun.
“Are you tired?” he asked presently in a gentler tone.
“Not much. But a day like this always finds one rather stupid at its
close.”
“Were your mental exertions in the woods very severe? Did you
stop to analyze and classify the ferns?”
“No.”
“You must have found some delightful employment.”
No answer again.
“Do you know that I am going back to the city on Saturday?”
“Are you?—indeed!”
“I dare say you will not miss me.”
“I do not know why I should, specially.”
“That is unfriendly.”
“Is it? Well,” rousing herself a trifle, “I suppose we do miss any one
with whom we have had a bright, pleasant time. And your Aunt Lucy
will be very sorry to have you go.”
“And yet, she will have you.”
“I am only one of the incidentals, Mr. Ogden. People who don’t
belong truly, step into each others’ lives and when the time comes,
step out again. But one born in the household is different.”
“They all like you—so much. I am almost jealous of uncle
Churchill’s regard.”
“O, you need not be.”
“He is old-fashioned and strict in some of his notions, but he has a
splendid heart.”
“I believe that.”
“O, Miss Endicott, please look back at this sunset! It is still more
glorious than the one we saw the evening of our ride! Do you know, I
hate to return. Everything is so lovely here.”
Some of the wide fields lay in the shade, some in the bronze light
of the dying sun. All the tree-tops were burnished, and now it was so
still that not a leaf stirred. A distant Whip-poor-will began his
melancholy lay.
“Oh, we must hurry on;” said Fanny recollecting herself. “The
others have passed the curve of the road and are out of sight.”
They quickened their pace a trifle. Presently he inquired—
“What is to be done to-morrow?”
“Why—nothing.”
“No tea parties nor croquet?”
“I believe not. We shall all be tired. I have had two or three weeks
of dissipation and think it high time to rest up a little.”
“Suppose you take a drive with me? That will not be tiresome.
About four in the afternoon, say.”
Fan started again.
“I think I would rather not;” she replied, curtly.
“Why?”
“For various reasons that I cannot enumerate.”
“I am glad you have more than one, for that might be rather hard
upon me. Well, can I come over to tea then? that is if you are not to
have other company.”
“I dare say they will all be glad to entertain you.”
“I don’t wish any one but just you. I shall have to take the others
part of the time. But on my last day I deserve some indulgence.”
“I may not feel indulgent;” she answered carelessly.
“Miss Fanny—and I have so many things to ask!”
“Don’t ask them;” she said recklessly. Was she walking into
another fire?
“I must ask one.”
She expressed no curiosity or anxiety, but her heart beat so loudly
it seemed as if he must hear it. Dick Fairlie’s love-making had been
honest and true, but this young man?—So she walked on more
rapidly.
“Yes; one question. How else should I know? And it is too great a
risk to leave you here with no word—”
“Mr. Ogden, I think you have lost your senses;” she interrupted
sharply.
“I thought so myself to-day. When you went off with that Fairlie! I
know he was with you this afternoon, and I resolved then to have my
say. I do not mean to lose through being a laggard. My darling, can
you—do you—?”
Fan turned and faced him. She was cool and angry.
“Mr. Ogden,” she said decisively, “that is enough! It may be your
habit to make love to city girls on a fortnight’s acquaintance, but it is
not mine to receive it. I have been friendly because I thought you a
gentleman!”
“Fanny! Miss Endicott,” and he confronted her in so authoritative a
fashion, that she felt his strength at once. “You mistake me
altogether. I am not in the habit of trifling. If I speak soon it is
because I must leave you, and I know another loves you. You have
only to say that you prefer him, and I will be silent.”
He waited several minutes for her to answer, but how could she? It
was a cruel strait. Her cheeks were crimson with shame.
“Then I think I have a right to be heard.”
She summoned all her reckless bravery.
“Mr. Ogden,” she began in an ironical tone; “how long do you
suppose you could remember? It would be the wildest of folly to
listen to you.”
“You doubt me altogether! What shall I do to convince you? Let me
have that withered rose at your throat. I gave it to you this morning
and it will be precious to me. How long a probation will you set me—
a year? Well, when you receive this rose back some day you will
know that I am of the same mind.”
He took it and dropped it into his pocket memorandum. Then they
walked on in silence.
On the way the children were dispersed nearest their homes. By
the Church, Fanny and Mr. Ogden came up with the last. She did not
dare leave him or she would have joined her father. A kind of
fascination kept her under his influence.
They paused at the gate. The others had entered.
“Do you want me to come to-morrow?” His tone was almost
peremptory.
“I—no—” Hers sounded as if tears were not far off, and the long
lashes shaded her eyes, but still he read the face, and read in it,
furthermore, something she did not know was there.
“Very well. If you love me, as I hope you will some day, I can wait.
You will learn how truly every word was meant. I think then you will
be noble enough to admit it. Good by, little darling.”
He gave her one kiss and was gone. She flew up the path and into
the wide hall, pale as a ghost.
We were all there, mamma with baby in her arms, tiny Tim
hanging to her skirt, Lily and Daisy talking like two chatter-boxes.
There was a promiscuous heap of hats and baskets on the floor.
“Children!” exclaimed papa, “don’t set your mother crazy! Take
some of these articles to the kitchen. There, I nearly stepped into
some one’s hat. Rose my dear—”
Fan entered at this moment. Papa stood first, so she put her arm
around his neck and gave a little sob.
“My dear girl, you are tired to death! How pale you look. Mamma
would a cup of tea do her any good? And isn’t our supper ready?”
I hung up the hats, and sent Daisy off with a cargo of baskets.
“No, I don’t want a mouthful,” Fan said. “It was a splendid day, but
I am tired to the uttermost and would like to drop into bed without a
word. Or if I was Edith and mamma could cuddle me in her arms. Oh
dear!”
I think that mamma guessed something was amiss. She gave
baby to me and went straight to Fan.
“Oh, mamma, darling, what would the world be without you? I feel
as if I had been lost somewhere and just come to light. Do I really
belong to you?”
With that she gave a little hysterical laugh which ended with
passionate crying.
“I am a baby, there! I am ashamed of myself. Let me run and put
away my toggery, and maybe I shall come to my senses.”
The children were washed and brushed. Stuart had just come in,
and we sat down to the table. Fanny entered presently, but she
neither ate nor drank, and seemed to be quite unlike herself.
Indeed, I do not think she came to her senses until she and
mamma had a good long talk, she lying in her fresh, cool bed. The
friendly dusk hid her scarlet cheeks, but it could not keep her voice
steady. All the naughtiness was confessed except the little that could
not be told until long afterward, when events justified it.
“My dear girl, I am extremely sorry, and yet I do not know how you
could have avoided the trouble. You did quite right if you could not
love Mr. Fairlie, and Mr. Ogden’s haste was ungenerous and
inexcusable. I am glad you had the good sense to see this. And now
go to sleep my darling. If we have any better thoughts to-morrow we
will comfort one another with them.”
So she kissed her and left her alone.
CHAPTER XI.
E were all pretty tired the next morning. The children

slept late, and Fanny was unusually languid for her.—
Stuart was the only one who did not appear to feel the
effects of dissipation, for he was off bright and early on
another excursion with the boys.
It seemed so strange to think of Fan having had two offers of
marriage; at least, one we knew was made in good faith. The other
mamma was not decided about.
“Poor little girl;” said papa kissing her. “Your troubles are beginning
early in life.”
“You think like the old lady in the couplet—
‘Wires and briars, needles and pins,

When you are married your trouble begins.’”
and Fan laughed with a trifle of the old archness.

“Not exactly. Your mamma and I have been very happy.” Still there
was a perplexed expression on papa’s face as if he could not quite
explain the puzzle.
“But then no one ever could be as good or as splendid or as lovely
as you!”
“Any more adjectives, Fanny!” and he smiled.
“Yes, a host of them, but I am generous and spare your blushes.
Mamma—” in a sort of absent, thoughtful way, “there is one man
who, I think, would make a royal husband.”
“Are you quite sure you understand the requisite qualities?”
Fanny blushed.
“It is Stephen Duncan. I don’t know what put it in my mind. But he
seems so tender and thoughtful and patient.”
“He must have taken all the family virtues,” I made answer.
“He was different in his boyhood from the others;” said papa. “He
is a fine and noble man.”
“But what troubles me most now,” began Fanny with a certain
funny lugubriousness, “is how I am to meet all these people again.
What will the Churchills think? And oh, if Dick had not—”
“Such matters have to settle themselves,” returned mamma. “In all
probability the Churchills will know nothing about it. Try and be a little
careful in the future. You are no longer a child.”
“Must I wear a veil or enter a convent? Papa, suppose you lock
me up in the study? Then they will all flock to Rose, and it will be the
same trouble over again. What are we to do?”
“Just now you had better find some employment. I cut out half a
dozen aprons for Daisy yesterday;” said mamma.
“Then I will open my beloved machine, so good-bye to romance.
Work and you are adversaries.”
I wondered how she could take events so coolly. She sang with
her sewing as if her heart was as light as thistle-down.
Nelly in the meanwhile was made ready and sent off to visit an old
parishioner, living on a farm thirty miles away. One of the children
went for awhile every summer.
Louis improved rapidly. He had fretted somewhat about accepting
the Churchills’ carriage, and begged papa to hire one for him, which
had been done. He went out nearly every morning now, or if it was
too warm, late in the afternoon. I think he was getting a little
humanized, too. Occasionally he joined our circle and would often
play with baby Edith, who laughed and talked her fashion if you
looked at her. She was just as good and sweet as she could be.
Mr. Ogden did not come over, and went away on Saturday. That
somehow stamped the episode as pastime. With all her gayety Fan
did feel badly over it—a trifle mortified, I think, that he should have
ventured upon such a freedom.
It was to make no change with the Churchills however. Indeed, we
received quite a handsome compliment from them the next week.
Mr. Churchill invited papa to go up in the mountains with him. He had
some business with a tract of woodland that the railroad company
wanted to purchase, and thought it would be a nice trip. They were
to start Tuesday night and return Saturday noon.
The house always appeared so strange without him. Not but what
mamma was quite capable of carrying it on, yet we missed him
sadly. Ann lamented Nelly’s absence, and declared “there wasn’t a
childer too many”. Fan and I sewed and had peculiar talks with
Louis. I never could tell what he thought or what he believed, or
whether he advanced these opinions for arguments’ sake. He had a
great deal of morbid pride, and a way of putting all the briary parts
outside. Everybody was selfish, he averred.
And he did have a fearful temper. Beside the quickness, it had in it
a brooding vindictiveness. He couldn’t seem to forgive injuries or
slights, and he was very jealous of Stuart, though he affected a lofty
indifference to those bright engaging qualities.
Stuart on the other hand did get into a good deal of mischief. He
headed raids on the farmers’ trees and melon-patches, and one
night the water was let out of the dam, which caused a great
commotion. Of course he was an immense favorite with the boys.
When papa came home there was a letter from Stephen,
answering the one announcing the illness. He had been very much
perplexed in the business and found it necessary to go to Paris. He
would not be able to return until late in the Fall. As school began the
tenth of September it would be best to send Stuart immediately.
Would Mrs. Endicott see that his clothes were in order? If Louis
preferred, when he was well enough to resume his studies, to board
in some quiet family and take the lessons he needed, Stephen
considered it a better plan.
“Not that I mean this to be construed into a desire for you to keep
him, my dear friend,” he wrote. “You have too much on your hands
already, and I feel as if I had added a great burthen. But if he
decides upon this course will you make some inquiries for him, and
help him to find a suitable person? I do not think him strong enough
to be regularly in school.”
Louis made no comment for several days, then declared that he
did not mean to be buried alive in a country village through a dreary
winter. He would go back to Wilburton, but not enter the school.
There were plenty of families who would take him to board, and he
liked it there.
Just at this juncture one of his cousins, a year or two older than
himself, invited him to go to Canada to recruit his health. He was to
start early in September and would call for him.
He accepted the invitation at once, without even consulting papa.
“I suppose it is as well, though,” papa said thoughtfully. “He does
need bracing up, and the change will be just the thing for him. We
can hear meanwhile from Stephen about this Wilburton
arrangement.”
The boys both went to Westburg with papa to get some new
clothes. Mamma packed Stuart’s trunk, and then he was frantic to
return to the boys. Monday would be the tenth but he insisted upon
starting on Friday. He wanted to get a good room, to see old friends
and feel settled before school began. He had enjoyed himself
splendidly, to be sure, and there were lots of jolly fellows in
Wachusett, to say nothing of the girls. He meant to come back some
time and have it all over. But since he couldn’t go to Canada, which
he thought rather rough, he might as well march off at once. The
sooner a thing was well over, the better.
He spent a day and evening saying good-bye to his friends in the
village. The stage was to come at eight Friday morn. He had his
trunk strapped and out on the porch; ate his breakfast in a hurry,
kissed the children and bade Ann a laughing farewell accompanied
with a new calico gown, which she thought an immense favor.

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Download Operations Management Processes and Supply Chains Global 11th Edition Krajewski Solutions Manual all chapters

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Operations Management Processes and

Supply Chains Global 11th Edition

Operations Management Processes and Supply Chains 11th

Operations Management Processes and Supply Chains 11th

Operations Management Processes and Supply Chains 10th

Operations Management Processes and Supply Chains 12th

Operations Management Processes and Supply Chains 12th

Operations Management Managing Global Supply Chains 1st

Operations Management Managing Global Supply Chains 1st

Operations Management 9th Edition Krajewski Solutions

Causal Methods: Linear Regression

a. The results, using the Regression Analysis Solver of OM Explorer, are:

The regression equation is Y = 42.464 + 2.452X

2. Hydrocarbon Processing Factory

Using the Regression Analysis Solver of OM Explorer, we get:

a. Relationship to forecast Y from X

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3. Ohio Swiss Milk

The results from the Regression Analysis Solver are:

4. Manufacturing firm skills test

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a. From the output, the relationship is

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a. From the output shown, the relationship is

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Actual Three-Month Simple Moving Absolute Absolute

Actual Sales Four-Month Simple Moving Average Absolute Absolute

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Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education Limited

9. Computer Success (part 2)

Actual Three-Month Weighted Moving Average Absolute Absolute

Actual Absolute Absolute

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10. Convenience Store

The trend progression with regression forecast:

The exponential smoothing forecast:

Based on MAD, the best method is trend projection with regression.

11. Community Federal

The trend projection with regression forecast:

Period Forecast (Ft)

12. Heartville General Hospital

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13. Calculator sales

Period Forecast (Ft)

The error measures are:

CFE MSE σ MAD MAPE

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14. Krispee Crunchies

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Detailed analysis from the TPWorksheet is:

15. Forrest’s boxes of chocolates

a. One possible estimated forecast for Year 4:

b. Multiplicative seasonal method

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16. Alaina’s Garden Center

Forecast for year 3 1850

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17. Utility company

Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Forecast for Year 5

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18. Franklin Tooling

(i) Naïve (1-Period Moving Average) Forecasting results

Demand for 1-Period Moving Average (Naïve) Forecast