A personal take on science and society

World view By Carissa Bryce

Christensen

Every nation needs

a space agency
As commercial firms transform the space
economy, each country’s space governance will
shape its opportunities for decades to come.
depend on satellite imagery.
National-security agencies in the United States and
elsewhere are expanding their long-standing cooperation
Nations with commercial space firms to access satellite hardware
without

L
ast month’s dramatic test launch and explosion of
SpaceX’s uncrewed Starship vehicle highlighted
the opportunities — and risks — of commercial
space flight. A new breed of space company is
shaping the space environment and life on Earth.
In the past decade, the investment of some US$60 billion by
venture firms and space-enthusiast billionaires has yielded
more than 500 space start-ups. The number of functioning
satellites in orbit has ballooned from around 1,000 in 2013
to more than 7,000 today. People have reached space on
commercial flights for the first time.
The activities of commercial companies offer new capa-
bilities that could improve quality of life, safety, sustaina-
bility, science and security for billions around the world.
But they also pose environmental and operational risks,
ranging from satellite collisions to light pollution to reli-
ance on high-risk ventures that could go out of business.
Regulatory and governance structures need to evolve
quickly to keep up.
Throughout my career, I’ve tracked the space economy,
developed tools to measure trends and models to predict
outcomes, and advised on government strategy. As an analyst
focusing on the space ecosystem, particularly the interplay
between the commercial, civil and national-security sectors,
I can say that, compared with previous waves of commercial
space activity, we are seeing a tsunami today. The institutions
put in place to deal with established aerospace contractors
and satellite operators, which are typically large and govern-
ment-focused, don’t work for today’s challenges.
Major space-faring nations — those with launch capa-
bility, sizeable government space budgets and significant
space industries — are already implementing new ways of
managing space activities nationally and globally. Nations
without major space programmes will be affected by these
changes, and need to consider how to avoid losing out.
My view is that every country should consider establish-
ing its own space agency to protect its interests and meet
national objectives in this period of rapid change.
Almost every nation is already a regular consumer of
some level of space capability, mostly satellite services.
Satellites are integral to global telecommunications, carry-
ing television and Internet traffic. Precision timing, used by
financial systems and energy grids, is based on satellite sig-
nals. Satellite observations drive forecasting models that
predict both daily weather and life-threatening events such
BRYCETECH
and acquire intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
major space imagery and analytics. Nations are benefiting from tech-
programmes nology transfer from space programmes, gaining access to
advanced computing and products such as microelectronics,
need to along with developments in areas such as food safety. They
consider are also sharing in insights gained from space exploration.
how to avoid In an era of commercial space exploration, a nation that
has not previously viewed itself as a space actor might find
losing out.” that it has a long-term future interest in the sector. This might
be in planetary resources, for example, because of a strong
mining industry, or in space exploration, if it can acquire
access to commercial launch vehicles and space stations. It
might want to influence competitive policies in other nations
seeking to attract businesses from abroad. Now is the time
for nations to protect their future interests by joining the
discussions and negotiations on the global stage.
Established international structures are changing, and
nations risk losing out if they are not part of the conversa-
tion. Increased commercial space activity is leading to new
governance in areas such as the management of space traffic
(including questions about who is responsible and liable for
collisions); preventing the accumulation of orbital debris;
licensing satellite services; and managing the competing
uses of the electromagnetic spectrum. The role of the
International Telecommunications Union, which has long
managed orbital access rights and spectrum management,
is under reconsideration as satellites expand drastically
into new orbits. Countries and organizations of the United
Nations have proposed rules for responsible space actors.
A number of nations have signed NASA’s Artemis Accords,
which seek to establish a shared vision to enhance the gov-
ernance of civil exploration and the use of outer space.
In this context, a dedicated public space agency can
improve a nation’s standing and help it to achieve its objec-
tives. Even if a nation’s space activities are minimal and
Carissa Bryce its agency small, the organizational construct could have
Christensen value. For example, the head of a space agency might have
is founder and access that a lower-level space lead in a larger agency (say,
chief executive of a telecommunications regulator) might not, even if the
BryceTech, based in budgets and authorities of the two are roughly the same.
Alexandria, Virginia, Different nations will have different objectives: to
and a Fellow of the expand their space presence, build space alliances, take
American Institute fuller advantage of commercial products and services,
of Aeronautics and or protect national rights and equities. In this period of
Astronautics. rapid change, in which space-based activities will become
e-mail: carissa. increasingly important to every country, national space

as hurricanes. Transportation infrastructure, land man- christensen@ agencies will help nations to achieve equitable treatment
agement and a host of industries, including agriculture, brycetech.com and meet their goals in space.

Nature | Vol 617 | 4 May 2023 | 9

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