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Frontier in Sustainable Agromaritime and Environmental Development Conference IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1359 (2024) 012089 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1359/1/012089

Historical and projected rainfall climatology in Sumatra

based on the CMIP6

L Mareta1, HM Agiel2, T Hadiningrum2

1
Atmospheric science, Department of Atmospheric and Planetary Science, Institut
Teknologi Sumatra
2
Departmen of atmospheric and planetary science, Institut Teknologi Sumatra

*E-mail: lesi.mareta@sap.itera.ac.id

Abstract. Sumatra is the largest island in Indonesia and has a vital role in maintaining
Indonesia's food security. Deformation on the island of Sumatra has resulted in severe seasonal
haze. Apart from this, the deformation has also caused the Climate, especially rainfall in
Sumatra, to change, thereby disrupting agricultural processes, which have disrupted food
security in Sumatra. We can compare the historical and projected monthly rainfall climatology
to see changes in rainfall patterns in Sumatra. The monthly rainfall climatology is the average
rainfall over at least 30 years. Monthly rainfall climatology is used to identify the general rainfall
situation in a region. Sumatra's historical rainfall climatology uses CRU TS data, while the
projected monthly rainfall climatology uses CMIP6 model data. Historical monthly rainfall
climatology shows that Sumatra has a monsoon pattern: one peak of the rainy season and one
peak of the dry season. The peak of the rainy season occurs in the wet season (December,
January, and February), while the dry season occurs in the dry season (June, July, and August).

1. Introduction
Indonesia's Climate as a whole is tropical. Warm waters in Indonesia play a very important role in
keeping land temperatures constant, with an average temperature of 28°C in coastal areas, 26°C in inland
and highland areas, and 23°C in mountainous regions. The average annual rainfall in the lowlands is
around 1,800 millimeters (mm) to 3,200 mm compared to the mountainous areas, which can reach 6,000
mm [1]. Climate variability in Indonesia is influenced by several factors, including Climate in Indonesia
is mainly influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole, Midden Julian
Oscillation, ITCZ, and monsoons.
Generally, Indonesia exhibits three rainfall patterns: monsoonal, equatorial, and local. Therefore,
the Indonesian Climate is primarily influenced by the Indian and Pacific oceans, with at least five factors
affecting rainfall variabilities. These factors encompass local effects (topography), meridional (Hadley)
circulation, zonal (Walker) circulation, monsoon activity, and tropical cyclones [2]. There has been an
overall decrease in average annual precipitation. However, rainfall trends vary across the country.
Studies covering Kalimantan, Java, Sumatra, and Papua found an increase in rainfall between 1998 and
2010. On the other hand, some regions along the western and southern coasts of Sumatra, eastern Java,
south Sulawesi, the Maluku Islands, west Papua, and Bali experienced a decline in rainfall [1].
Geographically, Sumatra Island is one of Indonesia's islands, located above the equator and
surrounded by the ocean. In Sumatra, rainfall is influenced by interactions of land, the atmosphere, and

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Frontier in Sustainable Agromaritime and Environmental Development Conference IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1359 (2024) 012089 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1359/1/012089

the oceans around it [3]. Sumatra is one of the largest islands in Indonesia. Sumatra has the highest daily
temperature of 32 degrees and high humidity. Sumatra has monsoonal and equatorial rainfall patterns.
most of the rainfall occurs in November - February [4]. The rainfall parameter is one of the crucial
climatic factors to understand the climate characteristics of a region. One can refer to climatology to
assess the average rainfall conditions in Sumatra. Information from rainfall climatology can provide
valuable insights, including the onset of the rainy season or the beginning of the planting season.
Rainfall is a critical factor that must be considered in adapting and mitigating hydrometeorological
disasters. Successfully addressing these disasters necessitates comprehensive data, encompassing
historical and projected rainfall data. In this research, historical data is derived from the Climatic
Research Unit (CRU) Time Series (TS), while projection data utilizes CMIP6. The Coupled Model
Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) were established to facilitate examining and comparing climate
simulations generated by integrating global circulation models of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere,
and land. CMIP aims to enhance our comprehension of past, present, and future climate changes from
natural climate variability and external radiative forcing. This is achieved by implementing multiple
climate models' simulations [5], [6]. CMIP6 is the most recent iteration of the CMIP model. This version
addresses long-standing challenges in quantifying and understanding radiative forcing in CMIP for
improved accuracy [7] [8]. By understanding the projected rainfall climatology, we can gain insights
into the potential changes in rainfall patterns, rainfall intensity, and rainy seasons in a specific region.
This has significant implications, particularly in water resource planning, disaster management, and
adaptation to climate change.

2. Methodology
Sumatra is the largest island in Indonesia and plays a crucial role in maintaining the country's food
security. Geographically, the island of Sumatra is situated between approximately 0° 55' N to 6° 20' S
latitude and 95° 00' to 108° 00' E longitude. The island extends from northwest to southeast and is
bordered by the Indian Ocean to the west, the Sunda Strait to the south, Malacca to the north, and the
Bay of Bengal to the north and northeast (Figure 1.).

Figure 1. Study area the Sumatra (8°S - 8°N to 95°E - 108°E)

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1359 (2024) 012089 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1359/1/012089

2.1. Data
The data used in this study includes monthly rainfall data, with two types of precipitation data being
utilized: historical (1901 – 2020) and projection data (2015 – 2100). Historical data relies on the CRU
TS model (0.5° x 0.5°)[9], while projection data uses the output from the CMIP6 model. CMIP6 data
was obtained from https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. Ten CMIP6 were used in this study; the
selection of these models was based on several studies that have been carried out specifically for the
Southeast Asian region [10] [11], [12]. Table 1 shows information from five CMIP6 models.

Table 1 Data CMIP6 models used in the research

Model Institution Resolution

Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological 1.125°×1.125°

BCC – CSM2 –MR Administration
EC – Earth3 – Veg – EC-Earth Consortium 1.1° × 1.1°
LR
Canadian Centre for Climate 2.79 × 2.81º
CanESM5.
Modeling and Analysis
Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques and 1.40 × 1.40º
CNRM– CM6– 1
Cerfacs

MRI– ESM2– 0 Meteorological Research Institute 1.12 1.12º

2.2. Climatology of Rainfall

Rainfall climatology is the average condition of rainfall over a certain time period. Rainfall climatology
can describe the characteristics of rainfall in an area. Climatology calculation uses the following
equation: 1 [13]. The climatological analysis will be divided into four seasons, namely the Wet Season
(December – February) or DJF, the first transition Season (March – May, MAM), the Dry Season (June
– August, JJA), and the second Transition Season (September – November, SON).

∑𝑁
𝑗=1 𝑥𝑖𝑗
𝑋̅𝑖 = 𝑁
(1)

Where 𝑋̅𝑖 is the climatological value for a particular month, N is the sum of data for the year of
observation, and 𝑖 and 𝑗 are the month and year of observation, respectively.

3. Result and Analysis

3.1. Historical Rainfall Climatology

Based on the monthly rainfall climatology data (1901–2020) for Sumatra using CRU TS data presented
in Figure 2, it can be observed that the highest rainfall intensity occurs at the beginning and end of the
year, specifically in December–January (wet season DJF). In December, rainfall intensity ranges from
200 to 350 mm/month; in January, it varies from 175 to 350 mm/month. Subsequently, during February–
March–April (Transition season 1 MAM), it is noted that rainfall intensity ranges from 100 to 350
mm/month, and in May, there is a decrease in intensity ranging from 100 to 250 mm/month. The lowest
rainfall intensity is experienced in June–July (Dry season, JJA), where in June, intensity ranges from 0
to 175 mm/month, and in July, it varies from 0 to 150 mm/month.
However, there is a noticeable increase in rainfall intensity in August, with values ranging from 0
to 225 mm/month. Meanwhile, rainfall intensity rises from September to October to November
(Transition season II, SON). In September, it ranges from 75 to 250 mm/month, followed by October,

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1359 (2024) 012089 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1359/1/012089

with intensity ranging from 125 to 350 mm/month, and November, with intensity ranging from 150 to
350 mm/month. According to Figure 2, the Sumatra region is divided into two rainfall patterns: the
Southeastern and Southwest. According to [G], the Sumatra region has two rainfall patterns, namely the
Monsoonal pattern and the Equatorial pattern. The areas with the monsoonal pattern include Southeast
Sumatra, namely Lampung, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, and Bangka Belitung, as well as parts of West
Sumatra and North Sumatra.

Figure 2. Rainfall Climatology (1901 – 2020)

Meanwhile, the regions in Sumatra with the Equatorial pattern include Aceh, Riau, and parts of
North Sumatra. This aligns with the information provided by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
According to ADB, the lowest rainfall is observed during the dry season, from June to September, with
average monthly rainfall in June and July ranging from around 160 mm to 180 mm. Conversely, the
months with the highest rainfall, linked to monsoons, occur between October to May. On average, there
is about 300 mm of rainfall from May to November, approximately twice that of the driest months [1].

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1359 (2024) 012089 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1359/1/012089

3.2. Projected Rainfall climatology

3.2.1. Model BCC-CSM2-MR
The seasonal rainfall in the Sumatra region for 2015 to 2100 (figure 3), based on the BCC-CSM2-MR
model, indicates high values during the MAM season, with an average rainfall of 200-400 mm.
Conversely, the lowest rainfall is observed during the JJA season, averaging 100-200 mm. The seasonal
rainfall distribution shows lower values in the northern part during DJF and in the southern part during
SON. The influence of the orography of the Bukit Barisan is not prominently observed in the seasonal
rainfall of the BCC-CSM2-MR model.

Figure 3. Seasonal Rainfall Climatology Model BCC-CSM2-MR (2015 -2100)

3.2.2. Model CanESM5

The CanESM5 rainfall for 2015-2100 in Figure 4 shows high precipitation during the SON season, with
an average rainfall range of 300-500 mm. Conversely, low precipitation occurs during the JJA season,
ranging from 100 to 300 mm. The seasonal distribution of CanESM5 rainfall shows low values in the
southern region during JJA and SON, while the northern areas exhibit a decrease during DJF.

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Frontier in Sustainable Agromaritime and Environmental Development Conference IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1359 (2024) 012089 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1359/1/012089

Figure 4. Seasonal Rainfall Climatology model CanESM5 Periode 2015 – 2100

3.2.3. Model EC-Earth3-Veg-LR

The future projections from the EC-Earth3-Veg-LR model (Figure 5) indicate high average rainfall
during the SON season, ranging from 100-500 mm, and low rainfall during JJA, ranging from 0-300
mm. The seasonal distribution of EC-Earth3-Veg-LR rainfall shows lower precipitation in the southern
region during JJA and SON, while the northern areas tend to have relatively higher values in almost all
seasons. In the EC-Earth3-Veg-LR model, the orographic effect of the Barisan Mountains is quite
evident, with higher rainfall values observed to the west of Sumatra.

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Frontier in Sustainable Agromaritime and Environmental Development Conference IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1359 (2024) 012089 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1359/1/012089

Figure 5. Seasonal Rainfall Model EC-Earth3-Veg-LR 2015 – 2100

3.2.4. Model CNRM-CM6-1

The CNRM-CM6-1 model (Figure 6) exhibits high rainfall values during the DJF season, with an
average 200-400 mm range. Conversely, the lowest rainfall occurs during JJA. The CNRM-CM6-1
model tends to accumulate rainfall in the western region, and the orographic effect of the Barisan
Mountains influences the high rainfall in this western area. The rainfall distribution indicates lower
values in the east during all seasons and in the south during JJA and SON.

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1359 (2024) 012089 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1359/1/012089

Figure 6. Seasonal Rainfall Climatology Model CNRM-CM6-1 Peroode 2015 - 2100

3.2.5. Model MRI-ESM2-0

The rainfall projections from the MRI-ESM2-0 model (Figure 7) show high values during the MAM
season, with an average range of 200-400 mm. In contrast, low rainfall is projected during JJA, with a
range of 0-300 mm. The rainfall distribution from the MRI-ESM2-0 model indicates lower values in
the northern part during DJF and low values in the southern part during SON. The orographic effect in
the MRI-ESM2-0 model is not prominently observed, as the rainfall values do not accumulate
significantly to the west or east.

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Frontier in Sustainable Agromaritime and Environmental Development Conference IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1359 (2024) 012089 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1359/1/012089

Figure 7. Seasonal Rainfall Climatology model MRI-ESM2-0 Periode 2015 – 2100

The rainfall patterns in several models exhibit similar trends. In models BCC-CSM2-MR,
CanESM5, and MRI-ESM2-0, there is high rainfall in Sumatra's central and southern regions during the
DJF season. Additionally, there is moderate and relatively uniform rainfall during the MAM season. On
the other hand, models EC-Earth3-Veg-LR and CNRM-CM6-1 show a more evenly distributed rainfall
during DJF and MAM.
The JJA rainfall patterns in models CanESM5, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, CNRM-CM6-1, and MRI-
ESM2-0 are similar, with high rainfall in the central to northern regions and a tendency for lower rainfall
in the southern part. Meanwhile, the JJA pattern in the BCC-CSM2-MR model has consistently low and
uniform values across the entire region. The DJF rainfall pattern shows a similar distribution for each

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Frontier in Sustainable Agromaritime and Environmental Development Conference IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1359 (2024) 012089 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1359/1/012089

model, with moderate to high rainfall in the central and northern areas and low rainfall in the southern
part.

4. Conclusion
Based on the monthly rainfall climatology data (1901–2020) for Sumatra using CRU TS data, it can be
observed that the highest rainfall intensity occurs at the beginning and end of the year, specifically in
December–January (wet season DJF). In December, rainfall intensity ranges from 200 to 350
mm/month; in January, it varies from 175 to 350 mm/month. The rainfall patterns in several models
exhibit similar trends. In models BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, and MRI-ESM2-0, there is high rainfall
in Sumatra's central and southern regions during the DJF season. Additionally, there is moderate and
relatively uniform rainfall during the MAM season. On the other hand, models EC-Earth3-Veg-LR and
CNRM-CM6-1 show a more evenly distributed rainfall during DJF and MAM.
The JJA rainfall patterns in models CanESM5, EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, CNRM-CM6-1, and MRI-
ESM2-0 are similar, with high rainfall in the central to northern regions and a tendency for lower rainfall
in the southern part. Meanwhile, the JJA pattern in the BCC-CSM2-MR model has consistently low and
uniform values across the entire region. The DJF rainfall pattern shows a similar distribution for each
model, with moderate to high rainfall in the central and northern areas and low rainfall in the southern
part.

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