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Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

CHAPTER 9

Section 9.1

9.1.1 a) H 0 :  = 25, H1 :   25 Yes, because the hypothesis is stated in terms of the parameter of interest,
inequality is in the alternative hypothesis, and the value in the null and alternative hypotheses matches.
b) H 0 :   10, H1 :  = 10 No, because the inequality is in the null hypothesis.
c) H 0 : x = 50, H1 : x  50 No, because the hypothesis is stated in terms of the statistic rather than the
parameter.
d) H 0 : p = 0.1, H1 : p = 0.3 No, the values in the null and alternative hypotheses do not match and
both of the hypotheses are equality statements.
e) H 0 : s = 30, H1 : s  30 No, because the hypothesis is stated in terms of the statistic rather than the
parameter.

9.1.2
The conclusion does not provide strong evidence that the critical dimension mean equals 100nm. There is
not sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis.

9.1.3 a)  = P(reject H0 when H0 is true)

 X −  11.5 − 12 
= P( X  11.5 when  = 12) = P   = P(Z  −2) = 0.02275.
  / n 0.5 / 4 
The probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true is 0.02275.

(
b)  = P(accept H0 when  = 11.25) = P X  11 .5 |  = 11 .25 )
 X −  11.5 − 11.25 
P   = P(Z > 1.0) = 1 − P(Z  1.0) = 1 − 0.84134 = 0.15866
0.5 / 4 
=
 / n

The probability of failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is false is 0.15866

c)  = P(accept H0 when  = 11.25) =

 X −  11.5 − 11.5 
(
= P X  11 .5 |  = 11 .5 = ) P  
 / n 0.5 / 4 
= P(Z > 0) = 1 − P(Z  0) = 1 − 0.5 = 0.5

The probability of failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is false is 0.5

 X −  11.5 − 12 
9.1.4 a)  = P( X  11.5 |  = 12) = P   = P(Z  −4) = 0.
  / n 0.5 / 16 
The probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true is approximately 0 with a sample size of 16.
 X −  11.5 − 11.25 
b)  = P( X > 11.5 |  =11.25) = P  
 / n 0.5 / 16 
= P(Z > 2) = 1 − P(Z  2)= 1− 0.97725 = 0.02275.

c) The probability of failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is false is 0.02275.

9-1
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

 X −  11.5 − 11.5 
 = P( X > 11.5 |  =11.5) = P   = P(Z > 0) = 1 − P(Z  0) = 1− 0.5 = 0.5
 / n 0.5 / 16 
The probability of failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is false is 0.5.

 11.25 − 12 
9.1.5 a) x =11.25, then P-value= P Z   = P( Z  −3) = 0.00135
 0.5 / 4 

 11.0 − 12 
b) x =11.0, then P-value= P Z   = P( Z  −4)  0.000033
 0.5 / 4 

 11.75 − 12 
c) x =11.75, then P-value= P Z   = P( Z  −1) = 0.158655
 0.5 / 4 

9.1.6 a) β = P( X >11.59|µ=11.5) = P(Z>0.36) = 1-0.6406 = 0.3594

b) β = P( X >11.59|µ=11.5) = P(Z>0.72) = 1-0.7642 = 0.2358

c) Notice that the value of  decreases as n increases

9.1.7 a)  = P( X > 185 when  = 175)

 X − 175 185 − 175 
= P  
 20 / 10 20 / 10 
= P(Z > 1.58) = 1 − P(Z  1.58) = 1 − 0.94295 = 0.05705

b)  = P( X  185 when  = 185)

 X − 185 185 − 185 
= P   = P(Z  0) = 0.5
 20 / 10 20 / 10 

c)  = P( X  185 when  = 195)

 X − 195 185 − 195 
= P   = P(Z  −1.58) = 0.05705
 20 / 10 20 / 10 

9.1.8 a) α = 0.05, n =10, then the critical value 185.37 (from the previous exercise part (b))
 = P( X  185.37 when  = 185)

𝑋−185 185.37−185
= 𝑃( ≤ )= P(Z  0.05849) = 0.5199
20⁄√10 20⁄√10

b) α = 0.05, n =16, then the critical value 183.2 (from the previous exercise part (d)), then
 = P( X  183.2 when  = 185)

9-2
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

 X − 185 183.2 − 185 

= P   = P(Z  -0.36) = 0.3594
 20 / 16 20 / 16 
c) As n increases,  decreases

 20 
9.1.9 X  175 + Z   
 n

a) α = 0.01, n = 10, then z  =2.32 and critical value is 189.67

b) α = 0.05, n = 10, then z  =1.64 and critical value is 185.37
c) α = 0.01, n = 16, then z  = 2.32 and critical value is 186.6
d) α = 0.05, n = 16, then z  =1.64 and critical value is 183.2

9.1.10 a)  = P( X  4.85 when  = 5) + P( X > 5.15 when  = 5)

 X −5 4.85 − 5   X − 5 5.15 − 5 
= P   + P  
 0.25 / 8 0.25 / 8   0.25 / 8 0.25 / 8 
= P(Z  −1.697) + P(Z > 1.697) = P(Z  −1.697) + (1 − P(Z  1.697) = 0.045514 + (1 − 0.954486) = 0.0910

b) Power = 1 − 
 = P(4.85  X  5.15 when  = 5.1)
 4.85 − 5.1 X − 5.1 5.15 − 5.1 
= P   
 0.25 / 8 0.25 / 8 0.25 / 8 
= P(−2.828  Z  0.5657) = P(Z  0.5657) − P(Z  −2.828) = 0.712260 − 0.002401 = 0.70986
1 −  = 0.290141

9.1.11 X ~ bin(15, 0.4) H0: p = 0.4 and H1: p  0.4

p1= 4/15 = 0.267 p2 = 8/15 = 0.533

Accept Region: 0.267  pˆ  0.533

Reject Region: pˆ  0.267 or pˆ  0.533

Use the normal approximation for parts a) and b)

a) When p = 0.4,  = P ( p
ˆ  0.267 ) + P ( pˆ  0.533 )
   
   
0.267 − 0.4  0.533 − 0.4 
= P Z  + P Z 
 0.4(0.6)   0.4(0.6) 
   
 15   15 
= P( Z  −1.05) + P( Z  1.05)
= P( Z  −1.05) + (1 − P( Z  1.05))
= 0.14686 + 0.14686 = 0.29372

9-3
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

b) When p = 0.2
 
 
0.267 − 0.2 0.533 − 0.2 
 = P(0.267  pˆ  0.533) = P Z
 0.2(0.8) 0.2(0.8) 

 15 15 
= P(0.65  Z  3.22)
= P( Z  3.22) − P( Z  0.65)
= 0.99936 − 0.74215 = 0.2572

9.1.12 X ~ Bin(10, 0.3) Implicitly, H0: p = 0.3 and H1: p < 0.3
n = 10
Accept region: pˆ  0.1
ˆ  0 .1
Reject region: p
Use the normal approximation for parts a), b) and c):
 
 
0. 1 − 0 . 3
a) When p =0.3  = P ( pˆ  0.1) = P Z  
 0.3(0.7) 
 
 10 
= P( Z  −1.38) = 0.08379
 
 
0 .1 − 0 .2
b) When p = 0.2  = P ( pˆ  0.1) = P Z  
 0.2(0.8) 
 
 10 
= P( Z  −0.79 ) = 1 − P( Z  −0.79 ) = 0.78524
c) Power = 1 −  = 1 − 0.78524 = 0.21476

9.1.13 a) Operating characteristic curve:

x = 185
 x−   185 −  
 = P Z   = P Z  
 20 / 10   20 / 10 

 185 −  
 P Z  =
 20 / 10   1−
178 P(Z  1.11) = 0.8665 0.1335
181 P(Z  0.63) = 0.7357 0.2643
184 P(Z  0.16) = 0.5636 0.4364
187 P(Z  −0.32) = 0.3745 0.6255
190 P(Z  −0.79) = 0.2148 0.7852
193 P(Z  −1.26) = 0.1038 0.8962
196 P(Z  −1.74) = 0.0409 0.9591
199 P(Z  −2.21) = 0.0136 0.9864

9-4
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

Operating Characteristic Curve

0.8

 0.6

0.4

0.2

0
175 180 185 190 195 200


b)
Power Function Curve

0.8

0.6
1−
0.4

0.2

0
175 180 185 190 195 200


Section 9-2

9.2.1 a) H 0 :  = 10, H 1 :   10
b) H 0 :  = 7, H 1 :   7
c) H 0 :  = 5, H 1 :   5

9.2.2 a) α = 0.01, then a = z1−  -2.33

b) α = 0.05, then a = z1−  -1.64
c) α = 0.1, then a = z1−  -1.29

9.2.3 a) StDev = N SE Mean = 0.7495

19.889 − 20
z0 = = −0.468
0.75 / 10
P-value = 1 −  ( Z 0 ) = 1 −  ( −0.468 ) = 1 − 0.3199 = 0.6801

9-5
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

Because the P-value >  = 0.05, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that  = 20 at the 0.05 level of
significance.

b) A one-sided test because the alternative hypothesis is  > 20

c) 95% CI of the mean is x − z 0.025     x + z 0.025 
n n
0.75 0.75
19.889 − (1.96)    19.889 + (1.96)
10 10
19 .4242    20 .3539
d) P-value = 21 −  ( Z 0 ) = 21 −  (0.468 ) = 21 − 0.6801  = 0.6398

9.2.4 a) P-value = 1-  ( Z 0 ) = 1-  ( 2.05 )  0.02

b) P-value = 1-  ( Z 0 ) = 1-  (−1.84 )  0.97
c) P-value = 1-  ( Z 0 ) = 1-  (0.4)  0.34

s 2.365
9.2.5 a) SE Mean from the sample standard deviation = = = 0.6827
N 12
b) A one-sided test because the alternative hypothesis is  > 99.
100.039 − 98
c) If the null hypothesis is changed to the  = 98, z0 = = 2.8253
2.5 / 12
Because  ( 2.8253 ) is close to 1, the P-value = 1 −  ( 2.8253 ) = 0.002 is very small and close to 0.
Thus, the P-value <  = 0.05, and we reject the null hypothesis at the 0.05 level of significance.
d) 95% lower CI of the mean is x − z 0.05   
n
2.5
100.039 − (1.645) 
12
98 .8518  
100.039 − 99
e) If the alternative hypothesis is changed to the mu ≠ 99, z0 = = 1.4397
2.5 / 12
P-value = 2[1 −  ( Z 0 )] = 2[1 −  (1.4397 )] = 2[1 − 0.9250 ] = 0.15
Because the P-value >  = 0.05, we fail to reject the null hypothesis at the 0.05 level of significance.

9.2.6 a)
1) The parameter of interest is the true mean crankshaft wear, .
2) H0 :  = 3
3) H1 :   3
x−
4) z0 =
/ n
5) Reject H0 if z0 < −z /2 where  = 0.05 and −z0.025 = −1.96 or z0 > z/2 where  = 0.05 and z0.025 =
1.96
6) x = 2.78,  = 0.9

9-6
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

2.78 − 3
z0 = = −0.95
0.9 / 15
7) Because –0.95 > -1.96, fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is not sufficient evidence to support the
claim the mean crankshaft wear differs from 3 at  = 0.05.

 3 − 3.25   3 − 3.25 
b)  =  z 0.025 +  −  − z 0.025 + 
 0.9 / 15   0.9 / 15 
= (1.96 + −1.08) − (−1.96 + −1.08)
= (0.88) − (-3.04) = 0.81057 − (0.00118) = 0.80939

(z  /2 + z )  2
2
(z 0.025 + z 0.10 )2  2 (1.96 + 1.29) 2 (0.9) 2
c) n= = = = 15.21, n  16
2 (3.75 − 3) 2 (0.75) 2

9.2.7 a)
1) The parameter of interest is the true mean battery life in hours, .
2) H0 :  = 40
3) H1 :  > 40
x−
4) z0 =
/ n
5) Reject H0 if z0 > z where  = 0.05 and z0.05 = 1.65
6) x = 40 .5 ,  = 1.25
40.5 − 40
z0 = = 1.26
1.25 / 10

7) Because 1.26 < 1.65, fail to reject H0. There is not sufficient evidence to conclude that the mean battery
life exceeds 40 at  = 0.05.

b) P-value = 1 −  (1.26 ) = 1 − 0.8962 = 0.1038

 40 − 42 
c)  =  z 0.05 +  = (1.65 + −5.06) = (-3.41)  0.000325
 1.25 / 10 
(z + z  )2  2 (z0.05 + z 0.10 )2  2 (1.65 + 1.29) 2 (1.25) 2
d) n = = = = 0.844, n  1
2 (40 − 44) 2 (4) 2

e) 95% Confidence Interval

x − z 0.05 / n  
40.5 − 1.65(1.25) / 10  
39.85  
The lower bound of the 90 % confidence interval must be greater than 40 to verify that the true mean
exceeds 40 hours.

9.2.8 a)
1) The parameter of interest is the true mean speed, .
2) H0 :  = 100
3) H1 :  < 100

9-7
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

x−
4) z0 =
/ n
5) Reject H0 if z0 < −z where  = 0.05 and −z0.05 = −1.65
6) x = 102 .2 ,  = 4
102.2 − 100
z0 = = 1.56
4/ 8
7) Because 1.56 > −1.65 fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is insufficient evidence to conclude that the
true mean speed is less than 100 at  = 0.05.

b) z 0 = 1.56 , then P-value=  ( z 0 )  0.94

 (95 − 100) 8 
c)  = 1 −  − z 0.05 −  = 1-(-1.65 - −3.54) = 1-(1.89) = 0.02938

 4 
Power = 1- = 1-0.0294 = 0.9706

d) n =
(z  + z )  2
2

=
( z 0.05 + z 0.15 )  2
2

=
(1.65 + 1.03) 2 (4) 2
= 4.60, n  5
2 (95 − 100) 2 (5) 2
e) 95% Confidence Interval
  
  x + z 0.05  
 n
 4 
  102.2 + 1.65 
 8
  104.53
Because 100 is included in the CI, there is not sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis.

9.2.9 a)
1) The parameter of interest is the true average battery life, .
2) H0 :  = 4
3) H1 :  > 4
x−
4) z0 =
/ n
5) Reject H0 if z0 > z where  = 0.05 and z0.05 = 1.65
6) x = 4.05 ,  = 0.2
4.05 − 4
z0 = = 1.77
0.2 / 50
7) Because 1.77 > 1.65, reject the null hypothesis. Conclude that the true average battery life exceeds 4
hours at  = 0.05.

b) P-value=1-  ( Z 0 ) =1-  (1.77 )  0.04

 (4.5 − 4) 50 
c)  =  z0.05 −  = (1.65 – 17.68) = (-16.03) = 0

 0.2 
Power = 1- = 1-0 = 1

9-8
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

(z  + z )  2
2
(z 0.05 + z 0.1 )2  2 (1.65 + 1.29) 2 (0.2) 2
d) n = = = = 1.38,
2 (4.5 − 4) 2 (0.5) 2
n2

e) 95% Confidence Interval

  
x − z0.05  
 n
 0 .2 
4.05 − 1.65 
 50 
4.003  
Because the lower limit of the CI is greater than 4, we conclude that average life is greater than 4 hours at 
= 0.05.

9.2.10
a) The alternative hypothesis should be one-sided because the scientists are interested in high adhesion.
b)
1) The parameter of interest is the true mean adhesion,  .
2) H0 :  = 2.5
3) H1 :  > 2.5
x − 0
4) z0 =
/ n
5) Reject H0 if z0  z where α = 0.05 and z0.05 = 1.65
6) x = 3.372 ,  = 0.66

3.372 − 2.5
z0 = = 2.95
0.66 / 5
7) Because 2.95 > 1.65, reject H0. The true mean adhesion is greater than 2.5 at α = 0.05.
c) P-value = 1 −  (2.95) = 1 − 0.998 = 0.002

Section 9-3

9.3.1 a) α = 0.01, n = 20, the critical value = 2.539

b) α = 0.05, n = 12, the critical value = 1.796
c) α = 0.1, n = 15, the critical value = 1.345
S 0.717
9.3.2 a) SE Mean = = = 0.1603
N 20
92.379 − 91
t0 = = 8.6012
0.717 / 20
t 0 = 8.6012 with df = 20 – 1 = 19, so the P-value < 0.0005. Because the P-value <  = 0.05 we reject the
null hypothesis that  = 91at the 0.05 level of significance.

9-9
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

95% lower CI of the mean is x − t 0.05,19 S  

n
0.717
92.379 − (1.729) 
20
92 .1018  

b) A one-sided test because the alternative hypothesis is  > 91.

92.379 − 90
c) If the alternative hypothesis is changed to  > 90, then t 0 = = 14.8385
0.717 / 20
t 0 = 14 .8385 with df = 20 – 1 = 19, so the P-value < 0.0005. The P-value <  = 0.05 and we reject the
null hypothesis at the 0.05 level of significance. Hence the conclusion remains the same as in part a.

9.3.3 a) 2 * 0.025  p  2 * 0.05 then 0.05  p  0.1

b) 2 * 0.025  p  2 * 0.05 then 0.05  p  0.1
c) 2 * 0.25  p  2 * 0.4 then 0.5  p  0.8

9.3.4 a) degrees of freedom = N – 1 = 16 – 1 = 15

S 1.783
b) SE Mean = = = 0.4458
N 16
35.274 − 34
t0 = = 2.8581
1.783 / 16

c) 0.01<p-value < 0.02.

We reject the null hypothesis if the P-value < . Thus, we can reject the null hypothesis at significance
levels greater than p-value.

d) If the alternative hypothesis is changed to the one-sided alternative  > 34, the 0.005<p-value<0.01.

e) If the null hypothesis is changed to  = 34.5 versus the alternative hypothesis ( ≠ 34.5) the t statistic is
35.274 − 34.5
reduced. In particular, t 0 = = 1.7364 and t 0.025,15 = 2.131
1.783 / 16
Because t 0 = 1.7364  t 0.025,15 , we fail to reject the null hypothesis at the 0.05 level of significance

9.3.5 a) 1 − 0.05  p  1 − 0.025 then 0.95  p  0.975

b) 0.025  p  0.05
c) 1 − 0.4  p  1 − 0.25 then 0.6  p  0.75

9.3.6 a)
1) The parameter of interest is the true mean interior temperature life, .
2) H0 :  = 22.5
3) H1 :   22.5

9-10
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

x−
4) t0 =
s/ n
5) Reject H0 if |t0| > t/2,n-1 where  = 0.05 and t/2,n-1 = 2.776 for n = 5
6) x = 22.496 , s = 0.378, n = 5 (To=-0.02366)
22.496 − 22.5
𝑡0 = = −0.02366
0.378⁄√5
7) Because –0.02366 > –2.776, we fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is not sufficient evidence to
conclude that the true mean interior temperature differs from 22.5 C at  = 0.05.
Also, 2(0.4) < P-value < 2(0.5). That is, 0.8 < P-value < 1.0.

b) The points on the normal probability plot fall along a line. Therefore, the normality assumption is
reasonable.

Normal Probability Plot for temp

ML Estimates - 95% CI

99 ML Estimates
Mean 22.496
95
StDev 0.338384
90

80
70
Percent

60
50
40
30
20

10
5

21.5 22.5 23.5

Data

 |  −  0 | | 22.75 − 22.5 |
c) d = = = = 0.66
  0.378
Using the OC curve, Chart VII e) for  = 0.05, d = 0.66, and n = 5, we obtain   0.8 and power of 1−0.8 =
0.2

 |  −  0 | | 22.75 − 22.5 |
d) d = = = = 0.66
  0.378
Using the OC curve, Chart VII e) for  = 0.05, d = 0.66, and   0.1 (Power=0.9), n = 40

e) 95% two sided confidence interval

 s   s 
x − t 0.025, 4      x + t 0.025, 4  
 n  n
 0.378   0.378 
22.496 − 2.776     22.496 + 2.776 
 5   5 
22.027    22.965
We cannot conclude that the mean interior temperature differs from 22.5 at  = 0.05 because the value is
included in the confidence interval.

9-11
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

9.3.7 a)
1) The parameter of interest is the true mean of body weight, .
2) H0:  = 300
3) H1:   300
x−
4) t0 =
s/ n
5) Reject H0 if |t0| > t/2,n-1 where  = 0.05 and t/2,n-1 = 2.056 for n = 27
6) x = 325.496 , s = 198.786, n = 27
325.496 − 300
t0 = = 0.6665
198.786 / 27
7) Because 0.6665 < 2.056 we fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is not sufficient evidence to conclude
that the true mean body weight differs from 300 at  = 0.05. We have 2(0.25) < P-value < 2(0.4). That is,
0.5 < P-value < 0.8

b) We reject the null hypothesis if P-value < . The P-value = 2(0.2554) = 0.5108. Therefore, the smallest
level of significance at which we can reject the null hypothesis is approximately 0.51.

c) 95% two sided confidence interval

 s   s 
x − t0.025, 26      x + t0.025, 26  
 n  n
 198.786   198.786 
325.496 − 2.056     325.496 + 2.056 
 27   27 
246.8409    404.1511
We fail to reject the null hypothesis because the hypothesized value of 300 is included within the
confidence interval.

9.3.8 a)
1) The parameter of interest is the true mean rainfall, .
2) H0 :  = 25
3) H1 :   25
x−
4) t0 =
s/ n
5) Reject H0 if t0 > t,n-1 where  = 0.01 and t0.01,19 = 2.539 for n = 20
6) x = 26.04 s = 4.78 n = 20
26.04 − 25
t0 = = 0.97
4.78 / 20
7) Because 0.97 < 2.539 fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is insufficient evidence to conclude that the
true mean rainfall is greater than 25 acre-feet at  = 0.01. The 0.10 < P-value < 0.25.

b) The data on the normal probability plot falls along a line. Therefore, the normality assumption is
reasonable.

9-12
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

 |  −  0 | | 27 − 25 |
c) d = = = = 0.42
  4.78
Using the OC curve, Chart VII h) for  = 0.01, d = 0.42, and n = 20, obtain   0.7 and power of 1 − 0.7 =
0.3.

 |  −  0 | | 27.5 − 25 |
d) d = = = = 0.52
  4.78
Using the OC curve, Chart VII h) for  = 0.01, d = 0.52, and   0.1 (Power=0.9), n = 75

e) 99% lower confidence bound on the mean diameter

 s 
x − t0.01,19  
 n
 4.78 
26.04 − 2.539  
 20 
23.326  
Because the lower limit of the CI is less than 25 there is insufficient evidence to conclude that the true mean
rainfall is greater than 25 acre-feet at  = 0.01.

9.3.9 a)
1) The parameter of interest is the true mean female body temperature, .
2) H0 :  = 98.6
3) H1 :   98.6
x−
4) t0 =
s/ n
5) Reject H0 if |t0| > t/2,n-1 where  = 0.05 and t/2,n-1 = 2.064 for n = 25
6) x = 98 .264 , s = 0.4821, n = 25
98.264 − 98.6
t0 = = −3.48
0.4821 / 25

9-13
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

7) Because 3.48 > 2.064, reject the null hypothesis. Conclude that the true mean female body temperature
differs from 98.6 F at  = 0.05.
P-value = 2(0.001) = 0.002

b) The data on the normal probability plot falls along a line. The normality assumption is reasonable.

Probability Plot of Ex9-59

Normal - 95% CI
99
Mean 98.26
StDev 0.4821
95 N 25
AD 0.238
90
P-Value 0.759
80
70
Percent

60
50
40
30
20

10
5

1
97.0 97.5 98.0 98.5 99.0 99.5 100.0
Ex9-59

 |  − 0 | | 98 − 98.6 |
c) d = = = = 1.24
  0.4821
Using the OC curve, Chart VIIe for  = 0.05, d = 1.24, and n = 25, obtain   0 and power of 1 − 0  1

 |  − 0 | | 98.2 − 98.6 |
d) d = = = = 0.83
  0.4821
Using the OC curve, Chart VIIe for  = 0.05, d = 0.83, and   0.1 (Power=0.9), n =20

e) 95% two sided confidence interval

 s   s 
x − t0.025, 24      x + t0.025, 24  
 n  n
 0.4821   0.4821 
98.264 − 2.064     98.264 + 2.064 
 25   25 
98.065    98.463
We conclude that the mean female body temperature differs from 98.6 at  = 0.05 because the value is not
included inside the confidence interval.

9.3.10 a)
1) The parameter of interest is the true mean sodium content, .
2) H0 :  = 300
3) H1 :  > 300

9-14
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

x−
4) t0 =
s/ n
5) Reject H0 if t0 > t,n-1 where  = 0.05 and t,n-1 = 1.943 for n = 7
6) x = 315 , s = 16 n=7
315 − 300
t0 = = 2.48
16 / 7
7) Because 2.48 > 1.943 reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the leg strength exceeds 300 watts at 
= 0.05.

The P-value is between 0.01 and 0.025

 |  − 0 | | 305 − 300 |
b) d = = = = 0.3125
  16
Using the OC curve, Chart VII g) for  = 0.05, d = 0.3125, and n = 7,   0.9 and power = 1−0.9 = 0.1.

c) If 1 -  > 0.9 then  < 0.1 and n is approximately 100

 s 
d) Lower confidence bound is x − t ,n−1   = 303.2 < 
 n
Because 300 is not include in the interval, reject the null hypothesis

9.3.11 a)
1) The parameter of interest is the true mean height of female engineering students, .
2) H0 :  = 65
3) H1 :  > 65
x−
4) t0 =
s/ n
5) Reject H0 if t0 > t,n-1 where  = 0.05 and t0.05,36 =1.68 for n = 37
6) x = 65.811 inches s = 2.106 inches n = 37
65.811 − 65
t0 = = 2.34
2.11 / 37
7) Because 2.34 > 1.68 reject the null hypothesis. There is sufficient evidence to conclude that the true mean
height of female engineering students is greater than 65 at  = 0.05. We obtain 0.01 < P-value < 0.025.

b) From the normal probability plot, the normality assumption seems reasonable:

9-15
 Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

Probability Plot of Female heights

Normal
99

95

90

80
70
Percent

60
50
40
30
20

10

1
60 62 64 66 68 70 72
Female heights

68 − 65
c) d = = 1.42 , n=37
2.11
From the OC Chart VII g) for  = 0.05, we obtain   0. Therefore, the power  1.

66 − 65
d) d = = 0.47
2.11
From the OC Chart VIIg) for  = 0.05 and   0.2 (power = 0.8). Therefore, n  30 .

9.3.12 a) In order to use t statistics in hypothesis testing, we need to assume that the underlying distribution is
normal.
1) The parameter of interest is the true mean concentration of suspended solids, .
2) H0 :  = 55
3) H1 :   55
x−
4) t0 =
s/ n
5) Reject H0 if |t0 | > t/2,n-1 where  = 0.05 and t0.025,59 =2.000 for n = 60
6) x = 59.87 s = 12.50 n = 60
59.87 − 55
t0 = = 3.018
12.50 / 60
7) Because 3.018 > 2.000, reject the null hypothesis. There is sufficient evidence to conclude that the true
mean concentration of suspended solids is not equal to 55 at  = 0.05.

From Table V the t0 value is between the values of 0.001 and 0.0025 with 59 degrees of freedom.
Therefore, 2(0.001) < P-value < 2( 0.0025) and 0.002 < P-value < 0.005. Computer software generates a P-
value = 0.0038.

b) The data tend to fall along a line. The normality assumption seems reasonable.

9-16
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

Probability Plot of Concentration of solids

Normal
99.9

99

95
90
80
70
Percent

60
50
40
30
20
10
5

0.1
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Concentration of solids

50 − 55
c) d = = 0.4 , n = 60 so, from the OC Chart VII e) for  = 0.05, d= 0.4 and n = 60 obtain  
12.50
0.2. Therefore, the power = 1 - 0.2 = 0.8

d) From the same OC chart, and for the specified power, we would need approximately 75 observations.
50 − 55
d= = 0.4
12.50
Using the OC Chart VII e) for  = 0.05, d = 0.4, and   0.10 so that the power = 0.90, n = 75

9.3.13
a) 95% two sided confidence interval
 s   s 
x − t0.025,99      x + t0.025,99  
 n  n
 79.01   79.01 
299,852.4 − 1.984     299,852.4 + 1.984 
 100   100 
299,836.7244    299,868.0756
b) Michelson's measurements do not seem to be accurate because the true value of 299,734.5 is not
included in the confidence interval at α = 0.05.

9-17
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

Section 9-4

9.4.1 a) α = 0.01, n = 20, from Table V we find the following critical values 6.84 and 38.58
b) α = 0.05, n = 12, from Table V we find the following critical values 3.82 and 21.92
c) α = 0.10, n = 15, from Table V we find the following critical values 6.57 and 23.68

9.4.2 a) 0.1 < 1-P < 0.5 then 0.5 < P-value < 0.9
b) 0.1 < 1-P< 0.5 then 0.5 < P-value < 0.9
c) 0.99 <1-P <0.995 then 0.005 < P-value < 0.01

9.4.3
a) In order to use the 2 statistic in hypothesis testing and confidence interval construction, we need to assume
that the underlying distribution is normal.
1) The parameter of interest is the true standard deviation of performance time . However, the solution
can be found by performing a hypothesis test on 2.

2) H0 : 2 = 0.752
3) H1 : 2 > 0.752
( n − 1)s2
4)  20 =
2
5) Reject H0 if  02  2 ,n−1 where  = 0.05 and  02.05,16 = 26 .30
6) n = 17, s = 0.09
(n − 1) s 2 16(0.09) 2
 20 = = = 0.23
2 .75 2
7) Because 0.23 < 26.30, fail to reject H0. There is insufficient evidence to conclude that the true variance
of performance time content exceeds 0.752 at  = 0.05. Because  20 = 0.23, the P-value > 0.995

b) The 95% one sided confidence interval given below includes the value 0.75. Therefore, we are not be
able to conclude that the standard deviation is greater than 0.75.
16(.09) 2
2
26.3
0.07  

9.4.4
a) In order to use the 2 statistic in hypothesis testing and confidence interval construction, we need to assume
that the underlying distribution is normal.
1) The parameter of interest is the true standard deviation of titanium percentage, . However, the solution
can be found by performing a hypothesis test on 2.
2) H0 : 2 = (0.25)2
3) H1 : 2  (0.25)2
( n − 1)s2
4)  20 =
2
5) Reject H0 if 20  12−  / 2,n −1 where  = 0.05 and  20.995,50 = 32.36 or 20  2 ,2,n −1 where  = 0.05 and
 20.005,50 = 71.42 for n = 51
6) n = 51, s = 0.37
( n − 1)s2 50(0.37) 2
 20 = = = 109.52
2 (0.25) 2

9-18
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

7) Because 109.52 > 71.42 reject H0. The standard deviation of titanium percentage is significantly
different from 0.25 at  = 0.01. P-value/2 < 0.005, then P-value < 0.01

b) 95% confidence interval for :

First find the confidence interval for 2 :
For  = 0.05 and n = 51, 2 / 2 , n−1 =  20.025,50 = 71.42 and 12−  / 2,n −1 =  20.975,50 = 32.36
50(0.37) 2 50(0.37) 2
2 
71.42 32.36
0.096  2  0.2115
Taking the square root of the endpoints of this interval we obtain, 0.31 <  < 0.46

Because 0.25 falls below the lower confidence bound we conclude that the population standard deviation is
not equal to 0.25.

9.4.5
a) In order to use the 2 statistic in hypothesis testing and confidence interval construction, we need to assume
that the underlying distribution is normal.
1) The parameter of interest is the standard deviation of tire life, . However, the answer can be found by
performing a hypothesis test on 2.
2) H0 : 2 = 40002
3) H1 : 2 < 40002
(n − 1) s 2
4)  20 =
2
5) Reject H0 if  02  12− ,n−1 where  = 0.05 and  02.95,15 = 7.26 for n = 16
6) n = 16, s2 = (3645.94)2
(n − 1) s 2 15(3645.94) 2
 20 = = = 12.46
2 40002
7) Because 12.46 > 7.26 fail to reject H0. There is not sufficient evidence to conclude the true standard
deviation of tire life is less than 4000 km at  = 0.05.

P-value = P(2 <12.46) for 15 degrees of freedom. Thus, 0.5 < 1-P-value < 0.9 and 0.1 < P-value < 0.5

b) The 95% one sided confidence interval below includes the value 4000. Therefore, we are not able to
conclude that the variance is less than 40002.
15(3645.94) 2
2  = 27464625
7.26
  5240

Section 9-5

9.5.1 a) A two-sided test because the alternative hypothesis is p not = 0.4

X 98
b) sample p = = = 0.3564
N 275
x − np0 98 − 275(0.4)
z0 = = = −1.4771
np0 (1 − p0 ) 275(0.4)(0.6)

9-19
Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers, 7h edition

P-value = 2(1 – (1.4771)) = 2(1 – 0.9302) = 0.1396

c) The normal approximation is appropriate because np > 5 and n(1 - p) > 5.

9.5.2 a)
1) The parameter of interest is the true fraction of satisfied customers.
2) H0 : p = 0.9
3) H1 : p  0.9
x − np0 pˆ − p 0
4) z 0 = or z0 = ;
np0 (1 − p0 ) p 0 (1 − p 0 )
n
Either approach will yield the same conclusion
5) Reject H0 if z0 < − z/2 where  = 0.05 and −z/2 = −z0.025 = −1.96 or z0 > z/2 where  = 0.05 and z/2
= z0.025 = 1.96
850
6) x = 850 n = 1000 pˆ = = 0.85
1000
x − np0 850 − 1000(0.9)
z0 = = = −5.27
np0 (1 − p0 ) 1000(0.9)(0.1)
7) Because -5.27 < -1.96 reject the null hypothesis and conclude the true fraction of satisfied customers
differs from 0.9 at  = 0.05.

The P-value: 2(1-(5.27)) ≤ 2(1-1) ≈ 0

b) The 95% confidence interval for the fraction of surveyed customers is:

pˆ (1 − pˆ ) pˆ (1 − pˆ )
pˆ − z / 2  p  pˆ + z / 2
n n
0.85(0.15) 0.85(0.15)
.85 − 1.96  p  .85 + 1.96
1000 1000
0.827  p  0.87
Because 0.9 is not included in the confidence interval, reject the null hypothesis at  = 0.05.

9.5.3 a)
1) The parameter of interest is the true success rate
2) H0 : p = 0.78
3) H1 : p > 0.78
x − np0 pˆ − p 0
4) z 0 = or z0 = ; Either approach will yield the same conclusion
np0 (1 − p0 ) p 0 (1 − p 0 )
n
5) Reject H0 if z0 > z . Since the value for  is not given. We assume  = 0.05 and z = z0.05 = 1.65
289
ˆ=
6) x = 289 n = 350 p  0.83
350
x − np0 289 − 350(0.78)
z0 = = = 2.06
np0 (1 − p0 ) 350(0.78)(0.22)

9-20
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
women were now devoted to Jah and the children were empty and
their bellies were pinched.
Nicholas Bly cursed Jah. The sight of the little coffins being taken out
of Tib Street reminded him of his own children and he went near mad
and vowed that Jah was taking them because He was a jealous
God, one who had taken Hell from the devil and their children from
men in the purblindness of His fury.
And he began to preach at the corner of Tib Street.

VIII: MR. BLY’S SERMON

He said:
“There are many filthy streets in this town, but this is the filthiest.
Who made it filthy? Jah! It is the nature of man to love his wife and
his children, to dwell with them in peace and loving-kindness. But for
all his love, wherewith shall a man feed his wife and children? What
clothing shall he give them? What shelter find for them? Go you into
this street and look into the houses. You will find crumbling walls,
broken stairs, windows stuffed with clouts: you will find bare shelves
and cupboards: you will find dead children with never so much as a
whole shroud among them. You will say that perhaps they are better
dead, but I say unto you that if a man’s children be dead wherewith
shall he feed his love? And without a full love in his heart how shall a
man work or live or die? Are we born only to die? And if life ends in
death what matters it how life be lived? But, I say unto you, that
because life ends in death a man must see to it that all his days are
filled with love, which is beauty, which is truth. And I say unto you
when your eyes are filled and bleeding with the pain of the sights you
shall see here, go out into the fields and to the hills and the great
waters and see the sun rise and shed his light and go down and cast
his light upon the moon, and draw vapour from the earth and bring it
again in the rain; and feel the wind upon your faces, and see the
sodden air hang upon the earth until the coming of the storm to
cleanse its foulness: and do you mark the flight of the birds, the
nesting of the birds, the happy fish in the waters, the slow beasts in
the fields: observe the growth of trees and plants, and grasses and
corn. Then you shall know the richness of love among the creatures
that know not Jah. They die and are visited with sickness even as
we, but theirs is a free life and a free death unconfined by any
sickness of the mind or tyranny of Gods and Demons. We alone
among creatures are cheated of our desires and perish for the want
of food amid plenty, and are cut off each from his full share of the
abounding love of the world. Who takes our share? Jah! Who kills
our love? Jah! Who filches the best of our thoughts, the keenest sap
of our courage? Who fills our lives and homes with darkness and
despair, and meanness and emptiness? Jah! I know not who Jah is,
nor whence He came, but I will dethrone Him.”

IX: THE EFFECT OF MR. BLY’S SERMON

Street oratory was at that time very common, but there was a note
in Mr. Bly’s eloquence which attracted many of the inhabitants of the
district, especially the young, and he achieved a certain fame. No
one knew exactly what he was talking about, for, except for expletive
purposes, the word Jah had dropped out of the vernacular. Mr. Bly
was assumed to be some kind of politician, and he was certainly
more exciting than most. Therefore his audiences were twice as
large as those of any other speaker. Seeing this, a Labour Agitator
came to him and offered him a place on his committee and a pound
a week as a lecturer.
“I can speak about nothing but Jah,” said Mr. Bly.
“Speak about anything you like so long as you catch their ears,” said
the agitator.
So Mr. Bly accepted the offer.

X: THE WIDOW MARTIN

When Mr. Bly told his infernal companion of his engagement Mr.
Nicodemus said:
“Talking is a very human way of creating a disturbance. My way and
Jah’s way is the way of corruption. We unseat the mind and poison
the soul with unsatisfiable desires. But if you wish it I will go with you.
We have lit a fire in Tib Street that will burn itself out without us.”
“I should like your company,” replied Mr. Bly. “It helps me to be
reminded that Jah has been unjust to more than human beings. It
redoubles my fury and kindles my eloquence. I am determined to
earn my pound a week and drive Jah out of the land.”
The devil began to draw on his shabby fur coat. Mrs. Martin had
been listening to their conversation. She burst in upon them and
vowed that her Nick should never, never leave her. With horrible
callousness Mr. Nicodemus told her that he was pledged to Mr. Bly,
and asked her for his tail. She refused to give it up, and was so
stubborn that, at last, after they had argued with her, and pleaded
and stormed, and bribed and bullied, she said she would produce his
tail if she might go with them; and they consented, for Mr.
Nicodemus said that if he were ever returned to power he would be
in need of his tail, and indeed would be a ridiculous object without it,
his system of damnation being supported by tradition and symbol
and ritual.
They had a merry supper-party, and that night took train for the town
appointed for Mr. Bly’s first appearance on a political platform.

XI: MAKING A STIR

Where other politicians dealt in statistics, which, after all, are but an
intellectual excitement, a kind of mental cats’-cradle, our orator
sounded three notes: he appealed to a man’s love of women, his
love of children, and led his audience on to hatred of Jah. To the first
two they responded, were persuaded that they were as he said,
cheated and betrayed, and, though they could not follow him further
without losing their heads, they lost them and were filled with hatred.
And as Mr. Bly never made any reference either to Government or
Opposition his speeches were reported in the newspapers on both
sides, and aroused the greatest interest through the country. The
well-to-do found breakfast insipid without his utterances, and, to
support him, they subscribed largely to the funds of the organisation
which promoted his efforts. His salary was raised to two pounds a
week on the day when a Conservative organ published his portrait
and a leading article on the golden sincerity of the Working Classes.

XII: MAKING A STIRABOUT

Where other orators damned everything from sewing cotton to
battleships, and so could not avoid giving offence, Mr. Bly damned
only Jah and hurt nobody’s feelings. But he produced an effect. He
laid every grievance at Jah’s door, and roused so much enthusiasm
that at last he began to believe in his power.
It is not often that the people find a leader, and when they do they
expect him to lead. They were impatient for Mr. Bly to reveal to them
a line of action, and here he was puzzled. It was one thing (he found)
to talk about Jah, another to bring Jah to book. He had no other
machinery than that of the Labour Agitators, who had been making
elaborate preparations for a strike. Their preparations were
excellent, but their followers were reluctant. They could provide them
with no adequate motive. In vain did they talk of the dawn of Labour,
the Rights of the Worker, and a Place in the Sun; to all these the
people preferred the prospect of pay on Saturday. Nothing could stir
them, until, at last, at one of Mr. Bly’s meetings when he was being
hailed as a leader and implored to lead, and at his wit’s end what to
do, upon a whisper from behind, he said:
“Strike! Strike against Jah! You are workers! Why do you work? To
feed your children. Your children die. Strike, I say, strike while the
iron is hot, the iron that has entered into your souls from the cruel
tyranny of Jah! There is no other enemy. You have no other foe....”
He did not need to say more. The fat was in the fire.

XIII. SPARKS FLYING

The fat crackled and sputtered. In thirty-six hours the business of the
town was at a standstill, and by that time Mr. Bly had visited three
other towns, and they too succumbed to his passion. At every town
he visited he was welcomed with brass bands and red carpets, and
his orders were obeyed. The Labour Agitators of the neighbouring
countries desired his services and cabled for him, and he promised
to go as soon as Jah was driven out of Fatland.
The strikes were begun in feasting and merrymaking, and things
were done that delighted Mr. Nicodemus and the widow Martin’s
heart:
“The men are becoming quite themselves again.”
And Mr. Nicodemus gazed upon it all and sighed:
“Ah! If only Hell were open!”
The widow Martin gazed upon him voluptuously and muttered:
“It would be just ’Eaven to keep that public you’re always talking
about for ever and ever with you.”

XIV: SMOULDERING
The strikers soon came to grips with want and the very poor were
brought to starvation. Only the more fiercely for that did their passion
glow. They forgot all about Mr. Bly and Jah: they were only
determined not to give in. They knew not wherefore they were
fighting, and were savagely resolved not to return to their old ways
without some palpable change. Forces and emotions had been
stirred which led them to look for a miracle, and without the miracle
they preferred to die. The miracle did not come and many of them
died.

XV: SUCCOUR
With a moderate but assured income the Fattish are humane, that is
to say, they grope like shadows through life and shun the
impenetrable shadow of death. They shuddered to think of the very
poor dying with their eyes gazing forward for the miracle that never
came, and they said:
“To think of their finding no miracle but death! It is too horrible. Can
such things be in Fatland? Why don’t we do something?”
So they formed committees and wrote to the newspapers and
started various funds; and they invited Mr. Bly to lecture in aid of
them.
He came to Bondon, lectured, and became the fashion. He
discovered to his amazement that there were rich people in Fatland,
and these rich people formed Anti-Jah societies. Enormous sums of
money were collected for the strikers, because the rich were so
delighted to be amused. Mr. Bly amused them enormously. Mr.
Nicodemus gave a course of lectures on the Kingdom from which
Jah had deposed him, and Mrs. Martin held meetings for women
only, to expound her views of men. For years the rich people had not
been so vastly entertained, and they poured out money for the
strikers.
Unfortunately their subscriptions could buy little else for the very
poor but coffins, and of them the supply soon came to an end.
Famine and pestilence stalked abroad, but only the more fiercely did
Mr. Bly urge the destruction of Jah, and the more blindly and
desperately did the starving poor of Fatland look for the miracle.
But soon not only were the poor starving, but the comfortable, the
tradespeople, the professional classes, the humane persons with
moderate but assured incomes were faced with want. Rats were now
five shillings a brace, and a nest of baby mice was known to fetch
four shillings.
When the rich found their meals were costing them more than a
pound a head then they forgot their craze and Mr. Bly, and Mr.
Nicodemus and the widow Martin withdrew from Bondon. Mr. Bly
was no longer reported in the newspapers. His name had become
offensive, the bloom had gone from his novelty, the varnish from his
reputation, and the sting out of his power.
In all the towns gaunt spectre-like men began to sneak back to work,
and Mr. Bly was nigh frenzied with rage, disgust and despair.
“It is Jah!” he said. “It is Jah. He has crept into the hearts of men. He
has stirred their minds against me. Oh! my grief. He has used me to
bring men lower yet, so that they will live in viler dwellings, and eat of
fouler food, and be more meanly clad, more verminous than ever.
The women will be lower sluts and shrews than they have ever been,
and of their children it will be hard to see how they can ever grow
into men and women. Deeper and deeper into the pit has Jah
brought us, and there is now no hope.”
And in his agony he remembered how in his childhood he had been
taught to pray to Jah, and he knelt and prayed that he might come
face to face with Jah, to tell Him what He had done, and to implore
Him to make an end of His cruelty and to destroy all at once.
Hearing him pray Mr. Nicodemus fled from his side and left him
alone with the Widow Martin. Said she:
“Don’t take on so, dearie. A man’s no call to take on so when he has
a woman by his side. There’s nothing else in the nature of things, but
men and women only. If we starve, we starve: and if we die, we die,
it’s all one. Have done, I say, there’s always room for a bit o’ fun.”
“Fun!” cried Mr. Bly.
And the comfortable creature took his head to her bosom, and there
he sobbed out his grief.

XVI: ON THE ROAD

So the strike ended, and Nicholas Bly walked from town to town
marking its effects. It was as he had foreseen, and men were lower
than before, and every night he prayed that he might meet Jah to
curse Him to His face. For days on end he would utter never a word,
but the widow Martin stayed with him and saw that he ate and drank,
stealing, begging, wheedling, selling herself to get him food. She
would say:
“It’s not like Mr. Nicodemus. There’s very little fun in him, but a
woman doesn’t care for fun when she’s sorry for a man.”
He was a grim sight now, was Nicholas Bly. His ragged clothes hung
and flapped on him as on a scarecrow. His cheeks were sunken and
patched with a dirty grey stubble. His eyes glared feverishly out of
red sockets, and they seemed to see nothing but to be asking for a
sight of something. There was a sort of film on them, but the light in
the man shone through it. His shoulders were bowed and his thin
arms hung limply by his side, but always his face was upturned, and
he shook as he walked, like a flame.
The malady in him drove him to the heights. His desire was to be
near the sky. Presently he forsook the towns and went from one
range of hills to another seeking the highest in Fatland.
At last after many days he reached the highest hill, and there he lay
flat on his face and would neither eat nor drink. By his side sat the
widow Martin, and she made certain that he was going to die, and
produced two pennies to lay upon his eyelids when death should
come.
On the third day he turned over on his back and said:
“Jah is coming.”
And it was so.
Up the steep path came a man with a great beard and a huge nose
and eyes that twinkled with the light of merriment and shone with the
tenderness of irony, and blazed with the fire of genius. By his side
walked a slim dark figure, and with a joyful cry the widow Martin
declared it to be Mr. Nicodemus.
Nicholas Bly sat up and began to rehearse all the curses that in his
bitterness he had prepared.

XVII: JAH
He began:
“By the dead bodies of the children of men; by the plagues and
diseases of the bodies of women; by the festering——”
Very quietly Jah took His seat by his side and motioned to Mr.
Nicodemus to take up his position in front of them. In a voice of the
most musical sweetness and with a rich full diction He said:
“As we made the ascent I was expostulating with my friend here for
the absurdity of his attempt to reinstate himself in the world. There is
no Hell. Neither is there a Heaven. These places live by faith as we
have done. It is a little difficult for us to understand, but we have no
occasion for resentment. Separately it is impossible for us to
understand. My meeting with my dark friend here led me a little way
on the road towards a solution. The four of us may arrive at
something.”
The widow Martin scanned Jah closely:
“You’ve been a fine man in your time.”
“I have never been a man,” replied Jah sadly. “Nor have I been able
to play my part in human affairs. Like my friend here I have been an
exile. I have been forced to dwell in the mists of superstition, even as
he has been confined in the dark depths of lust. Until now I never
understood our interdependence. I am the imagination of man. He is
man’s passion. Together we can bring about the release of love in
his soul. Separately we can do nothing to break his folly, his stupidity,
his brutality, his vain selfishness. Without us he can be inquisitive
and clever, vigorous and energetic, but he remains insensible,
unjust, cruel and cowardly.”
And Nicholas Bly roused himself and he seemed to grow, and the
film fell from his eyes and he cried:
“Blessed be Jah, blessed be Nicodemus, blessed be man and the
heart of man, blessed be woman and the love of woman, blessed be
life, blessed be death!”
So saying he rose to his feet. Before his face the sun was sinking in
the evening glory: behind him the moon rose.
XVIII: JAH SPEAKS
A great wind blew through Nicholas Bly’s hair and he bowed his
head in acceptance of the wonder of the universe.
As the moon rose to her zenith Jah said:
“There are Wonders beyond me and God is beyond imagination. My
dwelling is in the mind of men, but I have been driven therefrom. My
friend here should dwell in the heart of man, but he has been
unseated. Together we should win for man his due share of the
world’s dominion and power, and should be his sweetest stops in the
instrument of life. For without us is no joy, and with us joy is fierce. I
speak, of the woman also, for she is the equal of man and his
comrade.”
And as the moon was sinking to the west Jah said:
“We have suffered too long, and we have brought forth nothing. Let
us no longer be separate, but let us, man, woman, God and Devil,
join together to bring forth joy, for until there is joy on earth there
shall not be justice, nor kindness, nor understanding, nor any good
thing. We are but one spirit, for the spirit is one, and none but the
undivided spirit can see the light of the sun.”
Even as he spoke the sun came up in his majesty, dwarfing the
mighty hills, and Nicholas Bly raised his head and saw Nicodemus in
the likeness of a lusty young man, fine and splendid in his desire,
and Jah in the shape of a winged boy. And as he saw them they
disappeared, and he said:
“They have vanished into the air.”
From the scarred hillside came an echo:
“Into the air.”

XIX: SONG
Then did Nicholas Bly sing:
“I have lived, I have loved, I have died,
And my spirit has burned like a flame;
In the furnace of life my soul has been tried,
I have dwindled to ashes of shame.

I have glowed to the winds of my own desire,

I have flickered and flared and roared,
Through the endless night has flashed my delight
To declare my joy in the Lord.

For the Lord is life and I am His,

And His are my shame and my pride.
My song is His: my Lord sings this:
I have lived, I have loved, I have died.”

XX: MORNING
Waking, the woman said:
“How is it with you, my man?”
He answered:
“I feel truly that I am a man.”
Gazing upon the woman, he saw that she was beautiful.

XXI: HOPE
They came down from the hills, and a mist descended upon them,
and presently a driving rain. They were glad of each other, and
smiled their joy upon all whom they met. Nicholas Bly never ceased
to make songs, and as he sang the woman laughed merrily. The
songs he made he sang to many men, but none would listen except
the drunken man in the public-houses.
One day a very drunken man asked Nicholas Bly to sing a song
again, and he refused, because he wished to sing a better song. The
man offered him a mug of beer to sing again, but he refused, saying:
“I do not sing for hire.”
The man despised him and drank the beer himself, saying:
“It’s a silly kind of sod will sing for nothing.”
And he would hear no more.
So it was everywhere. None could understand that Nicholas Bly
should sing for the delight of it or that there could be a joy to set him
singing. In the end, and that soon, his heart broke and he died, and
Fatland is as it is.
Mr. Nicodemus and Jah were never seen again, nor in Fatland is
there trace or memory of them.
But within the womb of the woman was the child of her man, so that
she gazed in upon herself with a great hope. In this she was so
absorbed that the insensibility of the Fattish moved her not at all and
she forgot to apply for her maternity benefit.
THE END OF
WINDMILLS
 TRANSCRIBER’S NOTES:
Obvious typographical errors have been corrected.
Inconsistencies in hyphenation have been
standardized.
Archaic or variant spelling has been retained.
*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK WINDMILLS: A
BOOK OF FABLES ***

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