PART I

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strongest-earthquake-in-decades-a-reminder-that-california-is-way-
overdue-for-the-big-one/

What is the big one ?

"The Big One" is a term commonly used to refer to a hypothetical large-scale earthquake in
California.

Why do scientists predict the big one will happen soon ?

The last big earthquake on San Andreas fault was in 1680 ? That’s over 300 years ago, but the cycle
time for breaks of earthquake on San Andreas fault is 130 years. So there is a long overdue that
makes scientists think that a big earthquake will certainly happen soon.

What is the probability of the big one happening ?

The probability of the Big One occuring in every given year is 3%.

Are scientists able to predict when the big one will happen ?

They are not able to predict exactly when the big one will happen. The best prediction that can be
made nowadays is few seconds before the eathquake happens.

https://www.newyorker.com/video/watch/the-new-yorker-festival-the-really-big-one

Explain, what major problems will the population have to face after a big earthquake ?

This will cause an environmental disaster because a lot of fuel is stocked in this area and will be
released in the Columbia River. Moreover, the infrastructures will be partly destroyed like pipes that
brings the water to the population. So there will be problems to have drinkable water.

How can the population be protected from these risks?

They need to retrofit buildings, especially the water system, to ensure that the population will have
access to drinkable water after the earthquake.

PART II

On computers
https://www.geolsoc.org.uk/Plate-Tectonics

https://www.geolsoc.org.uk/Plate-Tectonics/Chap3-Plate-
Margins/Conservative/San%20Andreas%20Fault

Using the site below, write a paragraph to explain what geological processus are taking place near San
Andreas fault.

You can illustrate your work with a diagram (don’t forget to label it).

Is the same geological context happening in the West of South America ? Explain what is happening
there.
 Epicentre, magnitude : how to determine them?

Seismic waves, felt as the shaking motion when an earthquake occurs, are generated when energy is
released during an earthquake. The difference in time is takes for the two primary types of seismic
body waves—P waves and S waves—to travel to and be recorded by a seismometer, is used to
determine where the epicenter of the earthquake is located. Primary waves (P waves) travel faster
than secondary waves (S waves), therefore the P waves will arrive at a recording station first.

Virtual Earthquake is an interactive Web-based activity designed to introduce you to the concepts of
how an earthquake EPICENTER is located and how the RICHTER MAGNITUDE of an earthquake is
determined. The Virtual Earthquake program is running on a Web Server at California State University
at Los Angeles. You can interact with Virtual Earthquake using either a Netscape or Internet Explorer
Web Browser running on Macs or PCs.
Go here: https://www.sciencecourseware.org/VirtualEarthquake/ and click on that button below :

Then, after reading the information, please select one region (I took the Japan as example) and carry
on!
Here you have the situation and the results. Try and then calculate the magnitude. Have fun.

Record your results in your copybook

 Lesson « the big one »

What is an earthquake? An earthquake is simply a vibration of the Earth’s crust. Every thirty seconds
there is an earthquake somewhere in the world. Some earthquakes are barely detected while others
cause immense damage and loss of life.

Where do earthquakes occur? Like volcanoes, earthquakes mostly occur along plate boundaries. As
we know the plates are not motionless but move across the mantle.

Can earthquakes be predicted? Although it is known that most earthquakes occur at the plate
boundaries, there is no reliable method of predicting the exact time, place or magnitude of an
earthquake. This means it is hard to evacuate an area prior to an earthquake and instead a lot of effort
has been put into ensuring that new buildings are constructed to withstand an earthquake; that people
know what to do in the event of an earthquake and that warning systems are in place.

The Big One: This is a hypothetical earthquake with a magnitude of 8 or greater that is expected to
happen along the San Andreas Fault. See the Factsheet for more information.

The San Andreas Fault marks the boundary between two tectonic plates: The Pacific plate and the
North American plate. This is a transform plate boundary; the Pacific plate (on the west) moves in a
north westerly direction, relative to the North American plate (on the east). This causes earthquakes
along the fault. The entire San Andreas Fault is 1287 km long (800 miles) and reaches to depths of 16
km (10 miles). In places the Fault is 1.5 km wide (1 mile).

Cartoon sketch of the Pacific Plate-North American Plate boundary showing the San Andreas Fault.
(Public domain.)
Map of faults in southern California. Bold numbers show the average time between big earthquakes,
determined at paleoseismic sites (triangles). Thick red lines show the extent of historic ruptures.
(Credit: Kate Scharer, USGS. Public domain.)

The paleoseismic data on different parts of the San Andreas Fault Zone are all telling us that some
sections appear to be past the average, or "overdue" for a significant earthquake. But the data can’t
be used to make predictions: we do not understand earthquakes well enough to know exactly where
the next earthquake will occur, what the magnitude will be, or exactly when it will happen.

In order to protect the population, people have to learn how to react when a earthquake happen and
after that.

To limit the material impact, buildings and infrastructure must be designed so it would be able to
withstand the earthquake shaking or be easily repaired