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Full download Essentials of Econometrics 4th Edition Gujarati Solutions Manual all chapter 2024 pdf
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CHAPTER
7
MODEL SELECTION: CRITERIA AND TESTS
QUESTIONS
7.1. Specification errors occur when the form of the relationship between the
dependent variable and the explanatory variables is wrongly specified
because of:
1. Exclusion of relevant variables from the model, or
2. Inclusion of redundant variables in the model, or
3. Incorrect functional form (e.g., a linear model is fitted whereas the
true model is log-linear), or
4. Wrong specification of the error term.
Notice that one or more of these problems might coexist.
7.2. Specification errors arise because:
1. The researcher is not sure of the theory underlying his research;
2. The researcher is not aware of the previous work in the area;
3. The researcher does not have data on the variables relevant for the
model.
4. Of errors of measurement in the data.
7.3. A good econometric model:
1. Should be parsimonious;
2. Should obtain unique estimates of the parameters of the model;
3. Should fit the data at hand reasonably well;
4. Should have the signs of the estimated coefficients in accordance
with theoretical expectations, and
5. Should have good (out of sample) predictive power.
7.4. Exclusion of relevant variables; inclusion of irrelevant variables; wrong
functional form; wrong specification of the error term. Yes, one or more
specification errors can occur simultaneously.
1
7.5. If a variable(s) is wrongly excluded from a model, the coefficients of the
variables included in the model can be biased as well as inconsistent, the
error variance is incorrectly estimated, the standard errors of the variables
included in the model can be biased, and the conventional hypothesis testing
based on the t and F tests can be unreliable.
7.6. The “relevance” of a variable depends on the theory underlying the model.
Thus, in a demand function for money, income of the consumer, the interest
rate, etc. are relevant variables but not, say, the amount of bananas produced
in Mexico.
7.7. In the presence of the irrelevant variables, the OLS estimators are LUE
(linear unbiased estimators) but not BLUE, that is, they are not efficient.
7.8. Since the inclusion of the irrelevant variables increases the standard errors
of the coefficients, one may tend to accept the null hypothesis that a
particular coefficient is zero, although in fact it may not be. Therefore, one
should not include unnecessary variables in the model.
7.9. See answers to questions (7.7) and (7.8) above.
7.10. This is a common problem that one faces in any econometric analysis. Here
theory should be the guide to model building. If the empirical results are not
in accord with theory, one should be very wary of accepting those results,
for in econometric model building our primary objective is to test a theory.
PROBLEMS
2
Since we have excluded the capital input variable from this model, the
estimated output-labor elasticity of 1.2576 is a biased estimate of the true
elasticity; in (a), the true model, this estimate was 0.7148, which is much
smaller than 1.2576.
As noted in the chapter, E(a 2 ) = B2 + B3b32 , where b32 is the slope in the
3
7.13. Here we commit the error of omitting a relevant variable, the intercept in the
present instance. The consequences of omitting a relevant error are
discussed in the chapter. Equation (5.40) gives the results of including the
intercept in the model. In this particular instance the intercept term turns out
to be statistically insignificant. Hence the results given in Equation (5.39)
may be appropriate. In general, however, unless there is a strong reason to
suppress the intercept, it is best to keep it in the model.
7.14. (a) Yˆ = 23.9869 – 4.3756 X 3
4
Yˆ = -3.3591 + 4.2531 X 2 – 1.6024 X 3 + 1.5156 D
7.15. (a) The regression results for the four modes are as follows:
R 2 = 0.9942
B: ln̂Yt = 1.5932 + 0.8353 ln X 2t + 0.1758 ln X 2(t −1) – 0.3526
ln X 3t
t = (12.219) (3.045) (0.652) (-12.511)
R 2 = 0.9942
C: ln̂Yt = 1.6295 + 1.0058 ln X 2t – 0.2363 ln X 3t – 0.1208 ln X 3(t −1)
t = (17.008) (52.027) (-3.951) (-1.920)
R 2 = 0.9950
D: ln̂Yt = 1.2490 + 0.6713 ln X 2t – 0.2704 ln X 3t + 0.3332 ln Y(t −1)
t = (11.599) (6.593) (-9.469) (3.404)
R 2 = 0.9964
5
C 1.0058 (-0.2363) + (-0.1208) = -0.3571
D 0.6713 / 0.6668 = 1.0067 (-0.2704) / 0.6668 = -0.4055
7.16. The results of the Cobb-Douglas production function including the trend
variable are as follows:
ln̂ Yt = 4.9443 – 0.1218 ln X 2t + 0.4034 ln X 3t + 0.1181 X 4t
t = (1.2285) (-0.4753) (1.3947) (3.6023)
R 2 = 0.9925
The trend variable is statistically significant at the 5% level. By not
including the trend variable in the original model, we have committed the
specification error of excluding a relevant variable. The consequence in the
present example are clearly visible. Neither the labor input not the capital
input seem to have any impact on output when the trend variable (perhaps
denoting technology) is included in the model.
In this example, what is happening is that there is a significant trend in Y,
X 2 , and X 3 . Therefore, what this regression shows is the relationship
between output and the two inputs after the (common) trend in them has
been removed. In other words, this regression gives the short-run
relationship between output and labor and capital inputs, which in the
present instance is not statistically significant.
Caution: The practice of introducing the trend variable in a regression has
now come under scrutiny. The regression results presented here assume that
the trend is deterministic and not stochastic. On this, see Chapter 12 where
this topic is discussed at some length.
6
7.17. (a) The EViews output of the log-linear model is as follows:
Note 2: In this example, there is a sixth variable, X 6 , which is not used here
as it is a composite of X 4 and X 5 .
(b) Using EViews, we obtain the following linear model:
Dependent Variable: Y
Sample: 1960 1982
(c) We cannot directly compare the two models for reasons stated in the
text. To choose between the two models, we can use the MWD test
discussed in the text. After constructing variables Z1 and Z2 in the manner
described in the text, we obtain the following regressions:
7
Dependent Variable: Y
Sample: 1960 1982
Dependent Variable: Y
Sample: 1968 1987
8
(b) Since the time-squared term is borderline statistically significant (using a
one-tail test, it is significant at the 10% level), model (7.13) is mis-specified.
(c) In the present case we have omitted a significant variable from the
model. As noted in the text, the presence of such a specification error leads
not only to biased but also inconsistent estimates of the regression model
that omits relevant variable(s). This can be seen from the regression results
presented above.
7.19. If we include all the variables in the model as a startup model, we get the
following EViews results:
You can try other variations. In the preceding regression all the variables
are individually statistically significant. But the positive value of the STR
9
coefficient would suggest that, ceteris paribus, the higher the student-
teacher ratio, the higher the MAP. This is counter-intuitive.
It would seem both social and economic factors are important in the MAP
test outcome.
7.20. Econometrically speaking, the Supreme Court's decision is incorrect, for the
consequences of excluding relevant variables can be serious. Of course, the
defendants in this case simply argued that the plaintiff's model had not
included all the relevant variables. If the defendants were serious, they
should have presented their own regression results to buttress their argument
that as a result of omitting the relevant variables the results submitted by the
plaintiffs were seriously biased. In the absence of such evidence, the
Supreme Court did the best it could.
Analysis of Variance
Source DF SS MS F P
Regression 2 9.87319E+16 4.93659E+16 1243.51 0.000
Residual Error 48 1.90554E+15 3.96987E+13
Total 50 1.00637E+17
10
Predictor Coef SE Coef T P
Constant 3.8876 0.3962 9.81 0.000
ln Worker Hrs 0.46833 0.09893 4.73 0.000
ln Expend 0.52128 0.09689 5.38 0.000
Analysis of Variance
Source DF SS MS F P
Regression 2 91.925 45.962 645.93 0.000
Residual Error 48 3.416 0.071
Total 50 95.340
Results are:
Regression Analysis: Output versus ln Worker Hrs, ln Expend,
Z1
Analysis of Variance
Source DF SS MS F P
Regression 3 7.29896E+16 2.43299E+16 41.36 0.000
Residual Error 47 2.76478E+16 5.88252E+14
Total 50 1.00637E+17
11
Regression Analysis: ln Output versus ln Worker Hrs, ln
Expend, Z2
Analysis of Variance
Source DF SS MS F P
Regression 3 92.040 30.680 437.01 0.000
Residual Error 47 3.300 0.070
Total 50 95.340
12
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While it is manifestly impossible to use the same scale for charts and
maps, it is feasible and desirable that they be constructed upon scales
readily convertible into each other. This is most satisfactorily
accomplished by means of the decimal system, and the various type
scales are 10:1, 100:1, 1000:1, etc. The first two or three scales are
used for charts of quadrats, transects, and circles; the remaining
ones are employed in making maps of large areas. No attempt has
been made to draw an absolute line between charts and maps, but an
endeavor is made to restrict the term chart to the record of the
number and position of plants, while maps deal with the
arrangement and location of formational areas. It is hardly necessary
to point out the reasons why all charts and maps should be based
upon the decimal system of scales. Experience will furnish the very
best of arguments.
232. Color scheme. The first requisite for the graphic
representation of formations, regions, etc., is that each class of
formations be invariably indicated by the same color. It is also
necessary that the colors and shades be easily distinguishable, and it
is at least desirable that they be referred to the different classes in
some consistent sequence. Uniformity in all these points is greatly to
be desired at the hands of all ecologists. Here, as in the case of the
standard scale, uniformity will be found the more desirable the more
impossible it is made by ignoring it. In the use of color to represent
regions and provinces, on maps too small to indicate formations, the
color of each division is represented by the color of its dominant
formation; thus the prairie province is colored ochroleucus on
account of the color used to represent prairie formations, the boreal-
subalpine zone atrovirens on account of the typical coniferous
forests, etc. No endeavor has been made to take account of the
various types of formations, e. g., the different coniferous forests, as
this is a problem to be worked out for more local maps in various
shades of dark green, etc. The following color scheme which has been
based upon the points made above is proposed as a satisfactory
solution of the problem. The color standard used is that of Saccardo’s
Chromotaxia.
1. Marine: cyaneus
2. Brackish: ardesiacus
3. Freshwater: caeruleus
4. Swamps and marshes: caesius
1. Meadows: melleus
2. Prairies: ochroleucus
1. Fields: ruber
2. Groves and orchards: atropurpureus
3. Wastes: purpureus
1. Deserts: isabellinus
2. Plains and steppes: avellaneus
3. Saline formations: umbrinus
4. Arctic-alpine formations: testaceus
233. Formation and vegetation maps are detailed maps of a
single formation or a series of them, showing the formational limits,
and when the scale is not too small, the ecotones of zones and
consocies. In the cases where the topography is level, as sometimes
happens in mapping single formations, the chain and pedometer
must be used to ascertain the size of the different areas. Indeed in all
mapping of vegetation, the methods of surveying are directly
applicable. Over large areas, however, it is not necessary that limits
be drawn with mathematical accuracy, and for the purposes of the
ecologist, the plane table and camera are satisfactory substitutes for
the surveyor’s transit, at least in the present aspect of the subject.
When the formation or group of formations is commanded by an
elevation of some height, the latter is used as a base. A plane table is
established upon it and the topographical and vegetational features
are recorded in the usual way. This map is usually supplemented by a
series of views from the same base. Indeed it has come to be
recognized that a complete series of photographs of this kind give a
more valuable record than the plane table, and that the construction
of an accurate map from them is an easy matter. Since the camera
saves much time and energy also, it is used almost exclusively to
furnish the data for map making. In hilly, and especially in
mountainous regions, the photographic method is indispensable. Its
application is extremely simple. A central hill or mountain is
selected, and from it a series of views is taken so that the edge of one
exactly meets the edge of the other. This is an extremely important
matter, and demands much nicety of judgment. The camera is kept
in the same spot, and after each exposure it is turned as the operator
looks through it until a landmark at one edge just passes from view
at the other. As soon as the new position is determined, the tripod
screw is turned to hold the box firmly in position. In case of a slight
jar, the exact position should again be obtained. If the series is
accurately made, the resulting prints will give a complete panoramic
view of the region, without overlap or omission. For this purpose, a
6½ × 8½ camera is desirable, since the topographic and
vegetational features are larger and stand out more distinctly. A large
camera requires fewer changes of position, and hence saves time and
reduces the chance of error. A 4 × 5 camera serves the purpose
sufficiently well, though it requires a little more care in operation on
account of the greater number of exposures necessary. This may be
avoided in some degree by the use of a wide-angle lens if the depth of
the area is not too great. Whatever camera may be used, a telephoto
lens is a very desirable adjunct, since it enables one to choose
between three different sizes of the view without changing the
position of the camera. To avoid possible confusion, the exposures
are always made from right to left, and the plates are used in the
numerical order of their holders. For the same reason the landmarks
are described and numbered in their proper order. The prints
obtained are mounted on a card in sequence. The view map may be
preserved in this form, or it may be reduced or enlarged by making a
copy to the size desired. Outline maps of topography may be traced
from the resulting negative, and the formations filled in by means of
the proper colors. The most satisfactory method, however, is to have
the original views or the copy printed “light” and to color the
formations just as they appear there, with all the wealth of
topographic and vegetational detail. If a detailed topographic map
alone is desired, this is traced directly from the large copy.
234. Continental maps. A method of determining the general
outlines of regions, provinces, and vegetational zones as a
preliminary to their detailed study has been used successfully for
several years.[22] This is based upon provincial and continental maps
on which are traced the geographical areas of the species of genera
typical of the various formations. Detail topographic maps of the
prairie province and the North American continent have been used
for this purpose. A number of the facies of extensive and
representative formations of the different portions of the continent
are selected and grouped according to genera. One map is devoted to
each genus, unless the number of species is large. In this case a
number of maps are used, since the limits are apt to become
confused. The range of each species is determined from all the
reliable sources, and a corresponding line is drawn upon the map to
delimit its geographical area. The limits of the area of each species
are drawn in a different color, and the name of the species printed in
the same color in the legend. Although this work has as yet been
done only for the trees of North America, and for the grasses and
principal species of the prairie province, it promises to constitute a
final method for the limitation of vegetational divisions. It is clear
that if the original data concerning ranges are accurate, the
increasing study of formations will do little more than rectify the
detailed course of the limiting line, since in most cases facies and
formations coincide in distribution. The limiting line or ecotone of a
zone or province is a composite obtained from the limits of certain
representative facies and principal species, and checked by the limits
of species typical of the contiguous vegetations. Thus, the boreal-
subalpine zone is clearly outlined by combining the limits of Populus
tremuloides, Larix americana, Pinus banksiana, Abies balsamea,
Picea mariana, Picea canadensis, and Betula papyracea, and
checking the results by the areal limits of the hardwoods and grasses
to the southward.
PHOTOGRAPHY
235. The camera is an indispensable instrument for the ecologist.
Although it has too often been employed to give an air of
thoroughness to work of no ecological value, it is as important for
recording the structure of vegetation as the automatic instrument is
for the study of the habitat. No ecologist is equipped for systematic
field investigation until he is provided with a good camera and has
become skilful in its use. For this reason, it is felt that a few hints
concerning photographic methods and their application in ecology
may not be out of place. No written advice can take the place of
experience, but certain elementary suggestions and cautions will
greatly shorten the apprenticeship of one who does not have the
good fortune to be taught by a professional photographer. To the
student of ecology, the camera is not a toy. It must be understood
and operated with as much thoroughness as any other instrument,
and when this is done, the results will be equally certain and
desirable.
I. II.
For developing, equal parts of I and II are mixed, and a few drops of
a 10 per cent solution of potassium bromide added, unless there is
reason to suspect that the plate has been seriously underexposed.
The fixing bath is a concentrated solution of sodium hyposulphite,
“hypo,” to which a few drops of acetic acid are added. It should be
replaced every week or two, depending upon how much it is used. A
tray of water is kept at hand for bringing out the detail in
underexposed negatives, and a second tray is used for washing. The
“pyro” and the bromide solution should always be within reach, the
former for accelerating, and the latter for retarding the development
of unsatisfactory plates.
The image will begin to show on a properly exposed plate within
one to three minutes after it has been put in the developer. If the
image appears almost instantly, and then recedes quickly, the plate is
badly overexposed, and should be thrown away. In case it “comes up”
less quickly, indicating that it is not greatly overexposed, it can be
saved by the addition of more bromide. When the image does not
show till the end of five to ten minutes, the plate has been
underexposed. It is then necessary to add more “pyro,” taking care
not to pour it on the plate, and, after the image appears with its
striking contrast, to leave the plate in water until as much detail as
possible is brought out in the shadows. In the case of a normal
exposure, when greater detail is desired, the negative is left for some
time in water, and when contrast is sought more “pyro” is used.
Negatives with unusual detail lack “snap”; they are “flat,” and fail to
make artistic pictures. Contrast, on the other hand, often obscures
detail, and the best results can only be obtained by a happy
combination of the two. The most important maxim in developing is
that the process shall be continued until the image has become
indistinct. The universal tendency of the beginner is to remove the
negative the moment the outlines grow dimmer, and the result is a
thin, lifeless negative. It is almost impossible to develop too far, if the
image is not allowed to disappear. Negatives of this sort are “thick,”
and though they print more slowly, produce brilliant pictures. A
large quantity of the developing solution is used with single plates in
small trays, and is allowed to act without rocking the tray. Much time
is saved, however, by developing several plates together, and to avoid
using a large quantity of the solution, the tray is gently rocked from
time to time. This movement is particularly necessary at the
beginning, in order that the plates may be covered evenly, and at
once. Fifty cubic centimeters of the solution will develop three or
four 6½ × 8½ plates, and twice as many 4 × 5’s. After the developer
has once been used, it is kept for several days to restrain overexposed
plates. As soon as the plate is developed, it is rinsed in water, and
placed in the fixing fluid, until the white opaqueness is entirely
removed. The “hypo” is then washed out by immersing the negatives
for one to two hours in running water. If the latter can not be
secured, the water in which they are placed should be changed
frequently. The negatives are then air-dried within doors, in a place
free from dust. Finally, they are filed away in negative envelopes,
each bearing the name and number of the negative, and preferably
also, the time and other exposure data.
242. Finishing. On account of the time demanded by other field
tasks, it has not been found desirable to make and finish prints in the
field. This, with the making of lantern slides, enlargements, etc., may
well be turned over to a professional photographer. It is the custom
to make a proof of each negative to meet the casual needs that arise
in the field. For this purpose, solio “seconds” are used, since they are
both cheap and satisfactory. When an urgent demand for a finished
print does arise, it is met by using “velox” paper, which can be
exposed in the dark room, and then developed and fixed exactly like
a plate. Two standard papers for views are “solio” and “platina.” The
former gives brown tones, and is used for contrast and brilliancy,
hence it is especially good for printing from negatives that have too
much detail and too little contrast. “Platina,” on the contrary, yields
soft gray tones, and softens contrasts.
FORMATION AND SUCCESSION HERBARIA
243. Concept and purpose. A formation herbarium is a
collection of exsiccati, in which the species are arranged with respect
to their position in the formation, instead of being grouped in genera
and families. Its primary purpose is to furnish a record of the
constitution and the structure of a formation or a series of
formations. At the same time, it affords the basal material for
developing the subject of comparative phytogeography. It is
impossible for one ecologist to visit many remote regions, to say
nothing of spending a period sufficient for obtaining even a fair
knowledge of the vegetation. He can at the best acquire an
acquaintance with but few regions at first hand. In consequence, a
method that brings a vegetation to him, with its structure carefully
wrought out by years of study, is of the highest value. Time, as well as
distance, sets a narrow limit to the number of formations which one
man can investigate critically in a lifetime. It is no longer possible for
a botanist to explore vast regions, and to bring back results which
have anything more than a very general value. This fact, far from
restricting the comparative study of vegetation, will serve to make it
more accurate and systematic. The exact results of numerous
resident investigators, expressed in formation herbaria, with the
proper series of quadrat maps and photographs, will be worked over
by men who are themselves specially acquainted with a particular
vegetation. Comparisons will be founded upon a definite basis, and
the relationship of various vegetations can then be expressed in
precise rather than general terms. It is hardly too sweeping to assert
that accurate work in the field of comparative phytogeography can be
done only in this fashion. The value of formation herbaria in class
work is evident. On account of the limitations of time and distance,
classes can touch but few formations, and these at every time except
the growing period. For these reasons, an accurate and complete
formational record that can be consulted or studied at any time is
almost indispensable to class study in the development and structure
of formations.
244. Details of collecting. Formational collections, unlike the
ordinary sets of exsiccati, can not be made upon the first visit to a
region, or by a single journey through it. The determination of
formation limits, and of developmental stages, of aspects, layers,
abundance, etc., must necessarily precede, a work which alone takes
several years. Moreover, collecting itself requires more than one year
in a region containing numerous formations. This is exemplified by
the Herbaria Formationum Coloradensium.[23] The preliminary
study for this was made from 1896–1899, the collecting was done
chiefly in 1900 and 1901, while additional numbers were added in
1902–3. For the purposes of the formation herbarium, specimens
should be collected and pressed in such fashion as to show all the
ecological features possible. Plants must be collected both in flower
and in fruit, with the underground parts as perfect as may be.
Seedlings and rosettes should be included whenever present. In
pressing, one or two leaves should be arranged with the lower side
uppermost to admit of the ready comparison of both surfaces.
Opened flowers are valuable for flower biology, while seeds and
fruits are desirable for showing migration contrivances. The ferns,
mosses, and lichens of the formation should be fully represented,
together with the more important fungi and algae. The number of
photographs taken for each herbarium should be limited only by
considerations of time and expense. The ideal series consists of a
general view of each formation, showing its physiographic setting,
nearer views of each of its aspects, detail views of its consocies,
societies, and layers, and flower portraits of all the constituent
species. Such a series can only be obtained by residence through a
long term of years, and in most cases general and aspect views, with
portraits of the facies and a few of the striking principal species,
must suffice. Quadrat and transect charts, together with formational
maps, are extremely desirable, and, indeed, all but indispensable.
245. Arrangement. The arrangement of species within each
formation herbarium is based upon the structure of the vegetation.
The primary groupings are made with reference to time of
appearance and abundance; when definite zones, associations, or
layers are present, they must likewise be taken into account. In the
Colorado collection, the first division is into three aspects based
upon the period of flowering (aspectus vernalis, aestivalis,
autumnalis). Within each aspect, the species are arranged with
respect to abundance in the groups, facies, principal species, and
secondary species. Each group is placed in an ordinary manila cover,
which bears a printed label indicating the aspect and the group. The
species labels give, in addition to the name, date, and place of
collection, the phyad or vegetation form, the geographical area, the
rank of the species, the aspect, and the formation. To these may well
be added data concerning migration contrivances, seed production,
pollination, period of flowering, etc. The photographs are mounted
on the usual herbarium sheets, and placed in the proper order in the
various groups, and a similar disposition is made of quadrat and
transect charts, and such physical factor summaries as seem
desirable.
246. Succession herbaria. The arrangement of formation
herbaria may follow the classification of formations with respect to
character, region, or development. The first is the most convenient
for purposes of instruction, and has distinct advantages in permitting
a close comparison of the vegetation of different habitats. The second
basis, which is the one used in the Herbaria Formationum
Coloradensium, is peculiarly adapted to mountain vegetation in
which the zones are usually very distinct. The arrangement of
herbaria in a developmental series, however, is the most logical and
the most illuminating, since the structure of the ultimate formations
is not only made plain, but the stages in their development are also
laid bare. Such succession herbaria are the natural outgrowth of
formational ones. Indeed, the latter should be made merely the
starting point for these in all regions where the causes which bring
about successions are active. Where weathering is still an important
factor, as in mountains, the initial and intermediate formations
which lead to the final grassland or forest are often in evidence. After
a formation herbarium of each stage has been made in the way
indicated, a succession herbarium is obtained merely by arranging
the various herbaria in the sequence of the developmental stages.
Thus, in the Colorado collection, the subalpine formations are
arranged according to altitude in the following series: (1) the pine
formation, (2) the gravel slide formation, (3) the half gravel slide
formation, (4) the aspen formation, (5) the balsam-spruce formation,
(6) the spruce-pine formation, (7) the meadow thicket formation, (8)
the brook bank formation. Of these, five belong to the same
succession, and it is possible to indicate the development of the
spruce-pine forest by arranging these five formations in their proper
order in a succession herbarium, as follows: (1) the gravel slide
formation, (2) the half gravel slide formation, (3) the pine formation,
(4) the balsam-spruce formation, (5) the spruce-pine formation.