Journal of the Indian Ocean Region

ISSN: 1948-0881 (Print) 1948-108X (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rior20

Mangrove cover and cover change analysis in the

transboundary area of Kenya and Tanzania during
1986–2016

Fredrick Mungai, James Kairo, John Mironga, Bernard Kirui, Mwita Mangora
& Nico Koedam

To cite this article: Fredrick Mungai, James Kairo, John Mironga, Bernard Kirui, Mwita Mangora
& Nico Koedam (2019) Mangrove cover and cover change analysis in the transboundary area of
Kenya and Tanzania during 1986–2016, Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, 15:2, 157-176, DOI:
10.1080/19480881.2019.1613868

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/19480881.2019.1613868

Published online: 20 May 2019.

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JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION
2019, VOL. 15, NO. 2, 157–176
https://doi.org/10.1080/19480881.2019.1613868

Mangrove cover and cover change analysis in the

transboundary area of Kenya and Tanzania during 1986–2016
Fredrick Mungaia, James Kairoc, John Mirongaa, Bernard Kiruib, Mwita Mangorad and
Nico Koedame
a
Department of Geography, Egerton University, Njoro, Kenya; bDepartment of Natural Resource, Egerton
University, Njoro, Kenya; cKenya Marine & Fisheries Research Institute, Mombasa, Kenya; dInstitute of Marine
Sciences, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; eLaboratory of Plant Biology and Nature
Management, Ecology and Biodiversity, Vrije Universiteit Brussel – VUB, Brussels, Belgium

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

Mangrove forests are among the most threatened ecosystems on Received 21 October 2018
earth. Some of these forests traverse national boundaries Accepted 23 April 2019
complicating their management due to differences in governance
KEYWORDS
structures between countries. To improve the management of Mangroves; transboundary
transboundary species regular monitoring is essential. Remotely conservation area; remote
sensed data were used to estimate forest cover and analyze sensing; Kenya
conditions of mangroves in the proposed transboundary
conservation area (TBCA) between Kenya and Tanzania. Image
analysis was performed using unsupervised and supervised
classification methods. The transboundary mangroves cover an
estimated 11,906 ha; 55% being in Kenya, 45% in Tanzania.
Ceriops tagal, Avicennia marina, and Rhizophora mucronata species
co-dominate the mangroves of the transboundary area. The
hotspot for loss and degradation of mangrove in the TBCA is
Vanga in Kenya with a loss of 27 ha/yr. Harvesting of mangrove
wood products have contributed to the loss of mangroves in the
transboundary area. TBCA formation could play a critical role in
ensuring sustainable mangrove resources utilization.

Introduction
Mangroves provide benefits to humans through provision of a wide range of goods and
services (Obura et al., 2017; UNEP, 2014). They filter land run-off, support coastal fisheries
through provision of nurseries breeding sites to marine biota and through transportation
of organic matter to the marine environment and they can protect the shoreline from
erosion. However, around the world, losses of mangroves in the past decades was esti-
mated at a rate of 1–2% per annum; which is significantly higher than the loss of any
natural habitat (FAO, 2007; Giri et al., 2011; Spalding, Kainuma, & Collins, 2010); although
other studies have shown a reduced rate of <1%/annum (Hamilton & Casey, 2016; Thomas
et al., 2017). Losses of mangroves are disproportionately higher in South East Asia and

CONTACT Fredrick Mungai mburufredrickm@gmail.com Department of Geography, Egerton University, Box 536,
Njoro, Kenya
© 2019 Indian Ocean Research Group
158 F. MUNGAI ET AL.

Africa, with conservative annual declines of 8% and 6.5% respectively during the last four
decades (FAO, 2007; Giri et al., 2008, 2015; Spalding et al., 2010).
Major drivers of loss and degradation of mangroves around the world include clearing
mangroves for development, overharvesting of wood products, conversion to aquaculture
and other uses, pollution, and climate change (Mukherjee et al., 2014; Richards & Friess,
2016; Thomas et al., 2017). The underlying causes of loss and degradation of mangroves
in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) region have been identified as population growth,
poverty and inequality, poor governance, and economic drivers (Bosire et al., 2016;
UNEP, 2009). Poor governance manifests itself through illegal harvesting and forest
encroachment (UNEP, 2009). For instance, between 1980 and 2005, Tanzania lost 18%
of its mangroves; translating to a loss of 0.7% per year. Similarly, Kenya lost 18% of its man-
groves between 1985 and 2010, while Mozambique lost 27% of its mangroves between
1990 and 2002 (FAO, 2007; Kirui et al., 2012; UNEP, 2009). Losses and degradation of man-
groves have negative effects on fisheries, resource sustainability, shoreline stability, and
community livelihoods (GoK, 2017; Obura et al., 2017; UNEP, 2009, 2014).
Some mangrove areas around the world transverse territorial borders with different
legislation, policies, planning and management structures (Bunting et al., 2018; Spalding
et al., 2010). These differences lead to poor institutional coordination and are a setback
to the implementation of a conservation agenda in the affected areas (UNEP, 2014). To
address these governance deficiencies, some countries have opted for Transboundary
Conservation Area (TBCA) initiatives to manage areas of common interests. An example
of such TBCA is Waterton-Glacier which was established in 1932 to protect the area
between Kootenay Lakes Forest and Glacier National Park in Canada and the U.S.A.,
respectively (Dallen, 2009). Only a few TBCA exist in Africa, mostly due to institutional fail-
ures and inadequate capacity. Examples include the Greater Virunga Landscape TBCA
between Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda and Uganda in 1929, Mount Elgon
TBCA between Kenya and Uganda, Lubombo TBCA between South Africa, Mozambique
and Swaziland, and Nyika Plateau located between Malawi and Zambia (UNEP, 2009).
The Mnazi Bay/Quirimbas Complex straddling the border between Tanzania and
Mozambique is the only marine based TBCA in the WIO region. This seascape is character-
ized by dense stands of mangroves, coral reef, and seagrass beds. Mnazi Bay/Quirimbas
TBCA has served to protect mangroves and associated biodiversity from illegal activities
including unsustainable resource utilization, overfishing, pollution, and habitat conversion
(Nicolau, Macamo, Mabilana, Taju, & Bandeira, 2017).
The governments of Kenya and Tanzania have initiated plans to establish a marine
TBCA to lie in the coast region of Kwale County on the Kenyan side and in Mkinga district,
Tanga Region in Tanzania. The proposed conservation area extends from the northern
boundary of Diani Chale Marine Reserve in Kenya in the north to the southern boundary
of Mkinga District in Tanzania in the south (Wells, 2016). Conservation issues in the pro-
posed TBCA have been identified as follows: illegal and unsustainable removal of
marine living resources, alteration of the freshwater flow, habitat degradation and trans-
formation, pollution from domestic waste, saltwater intrusion, climate change-related
changes and increased sedimentation associated with poor land use in the hinterlands.
Consequences of these include shortage of harvestable products, loss of marine biodiver-
sity, reduction in fisheries, increased shoreline erosion, loss of livelihood, loss of potable
water and resource use conflicts (GoK, 2017; Semesi, 1992; UNEP, 2009, 2014).
 JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION 159

The overall objective of a TBCA is to contribute to regional integration by ensuring more

effective, coherent and collective biodiversity management, in line with international and
regional agreements and priorities for sustainable development, and to promote sustain-
able livelihoods; and this also applies to the Kenya–Tanzania TBCA. To achieve the goals
and objectives of the TBCA, there is a need to map the current status and conditions of
critical ecosystems in the area. The present study aimed to (1) assess the status of man-
groves in the Kenya–Tanzania transboundary areas in terms of areal extent, density and
diversity and (2) map out degradation hotspots and identification of drivers of change.

Methods
Study area
The study is located within the proposed TBCA between Kenya and Tanzania. It extends
from Diani in Kenya to the north (39°0’0′′ E, 4°25’0′′ S) to Tanga in Tanzania in the South
(39°40’0′′ E, 5°10’0′′ S); a Euclidean distance of approximately 101.9 km (MPRU & KWS,
2015). The TBCA present a narrow strip along the 175 km coastline in Kenya and Tanzania,
with an estimated area of 2440.7 km2. This area falls within Kwale County in Kenya and
Mkinga district in Tanzania along the coast with the Diani-Tanga road forming the land-
ward boundary whereas depth of 200 m is the seaward boundary (Figure 1).
The proposed TBCA seascape is endowed with critical habitats (including; mangroves,
seagrass beds and coral reefs) that support biodiversity and community livelihoods. Due to
its rich biodiversity and contribution to the socio-economics of coastal communities, the
area has been recognized by several conservation agencies such as the World Wildlife
Fund (WWF) and the Convention for Biological Diversity (CBD) as an area of significance
deserving special conservation attention (MPRU & KWS, 2015).
According to the Köppen climate classification system, the TBCA falls under tropical
savanna/tropical wet and dry (Aw/As) category supporting mixed woodland and grassland
vegetation (Anderson and Samoilys, 2015). Minimum and maximum annual rainfall ranges
from 1000 to 1200 mm (Bosire et al., 2016). Rainfall is bimodal with two distinct periods;
the long rains between March and May, and the short rains usually between October
and December. Minimum and maximum temperatures range between 18°C and 26°C
respectively. The area experiences high mean annual relative humidity of 74–78%
(Bosire et al., 2016). A variation in the annual average temperature as well as the dates
of onset of long and short rains and the annual amount of precipitation received have
been reported over the last decade (Nicholson, 2016).
The study area experiences semi-diurnal tides, common on the east African coast
(Obura et al., 2017). The intertidal area of the TBCA is characterized by rocky outcrops
and a layer of fossilized coral limestone (Lind, Morrison, & Hamilton, 1974). Present
along the flood plains are quaternary deposits of clay, sand as well as coral limestone
(Lind et al., 1974). The clay, sand and corals have been and continue to be exploited for
the construction industry (Kairu & Nyandwi, 2000; UNEP, 2009). Soils within the TBCA
are well drained although the depth and structure vary from site to site. The soils and
the favorable climatic condition experienced in the region supports many other land
uses including pond aquaculture, salt farming, forestry, mixed farming, animal husbandry,
subsistence and plantation agriculture (Bosire et al., 2016; UNEP, 2009).
160 F. MUNGAI ET AL.

Figure 1. Map of the study area: proposed transboundary conservation area (area of interest TBCA)
between Kenya and Tanzania. Source: Adopted from Semesi (1992) and KMFRI data.

River Pangani in the Tanzanian side of the transboundary area is among the major rivers
draining into the Indian Ocean. The river is about 432 km long with a catchment area of
43,650 km2 and an average flow rate of 850 mm3/yr (Komakech & Van der Zaag, 2011).
The other large river in the TBCA is Umba which originates from the Usambara Mountains,
draining into the Indian Ocean with its mouth near Vanga at the Kenyan side. Construction
 JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION 161

of reservoirs along the Umba and Pangani rivers have led to trapping of the sediment,
which negatively impacts on the lives of artisanal fishers and other coastal communities
(UNEP, 2009; 2014).

Mangroves of the Kenya –Tanzania TBCA

All nine mangrove species described in the WIO region occur in the TBCA. The key species
are Rhizophora mucronata, Ceriops tagal and Avicennia marina which occupy 70% of the
mangrove forest formation in the area (Bosire et al., 2016). Similar to most mangrove
areas in the region, different species in the TBCA exhibit horizontal distribution patterns
(Bosire et al., 2016). The seaward side is occupied by Sonneratia alba and tall A. marina.
This is followed by C. tagal, R. mucronata, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza and Xylocarpus granatum
mosaics in the middle zone; while the landward side is occupied by dwarf A. marina, Her-
itiera littoralis and Lumnitzera racemosa (Bosire et al., 2016). Mangroves within TBCA are
exploited for wood and non-wood resources. Trees are harvested for wood and energy,
whereas forest adjacent communities frequent mangrove areas for fishing. The major
drivers of losses and degradation of mangroves in the transboundary area have been
identified as overharvesting of wood products, conversion of mangrove areas for other
land uses such as solar salt works, human settlement, and rice farming, pollution
effects, and climate change (Bosire et al., 2016).

Data acquisition
The study used Global Land Survey (GLS) data supplemented by freely available
Landsat imagery from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth
Resources Observation and Science (EROS) website (www.glovis.usgs.gov). Ten satellite
images that met quality standards (cloud-free scenes within the area of interest and
acquired within the same season for the period between 1980 and 2018) were selected
for analysis. The 1986, 1991, 2003 and 2016 scenes were Landsat imagery at 30 m
spatial resolutions while the 2018 scenes were Sentinel (product of European Space
Agency (ESA)) at 10 m spatial resolutions. Additional information of the study area
was obtained from the national mangrove database archived at Kenya Marine and Fish-
eries Research Institute (KMFRI) and Forest and Beekeeping Division (FBD) of Tanzania,
Google Earth Pro, and land cover/use reference maps. Other data sets included the
World Mangrove Atlas (URL:http//data.unep-wcmc.org/datasets/6) and the 2011 man-
grove map from ocean data viewer website. The Ground Control Points (GCP) were
sourced from the GPS coordinates collected during fieldwork exercise. Different
remote sensing data and products have enabled estimation of mangrove extent,
although giving different area coverage. This variation has been attributed to
different methodologies example Spalding et al. (2010) used the best available national
and regional maps to generate a global mangrove maps (15,336,100 ha), while Giri et al.
(2011) classified the USGS Landsat remotely sensed data (1997–2000) to generate
global mangrove map extending 13,776,000 ha; which has been regarded as the
most global consistent area. More recently Bunting et al. (2018) using Landsat and
ALOS PALSAR data got almost similar result (13,760,000 ha) to that of Giri et al.
(2011) but varying at the regional level.
162 F. MUNGAI ET AL.

Field work
A systematic random sampling approach was adopted. Randomly, a total of six study sites
were selected with three sites falling on each side of the transboundary area that is on
both Kenyan and Tanzanian sides. At each study site, four transect lines were laid perpen-
dicular to the shoreline/creeks along which plots of 10 m × 10 m were systematically
established at 15–50 m interval depending on mangrove species formation and the
spatial extent of the forest between the seaward and the landward edges. The following
parameters were obtained during the fieldwork: tree height (m), stem diameter at 130 cm
height (D130 (cm)), vegetation cover (%), and forest quality. For natural regeneration, all
juveniles inside the 5 m × 5 m subplots of the main quadrats were identified, counted
and arbitrarily assigned Regeneration Classes (RC) based on their heights. RCI constituted
newly recruited seedlings with a height of less than 40 cm; whereas RCII and RCIII rep-
resented samplings of between 40 and 150 cm and above 150 cm in height respectively
(Kairo, Kivyatu, & Koedam, 2002).

Data analysis
Geo-referencing of acquired spatial data (Landsat imagery, Ground Control Points (GCP))
to a common global geo-referencing system that is World Geodetic System (WGS) 1984
was performed. The data was then registered to the local area coordinate system of Uni-
versal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 37S with first-degree polynomial adjustment using
ArcGIS geo-referencing tools.
A normalization process was performed on all imagery to eliminate variation brought
about by solar angle and the Sun-Earth distance. This process entailed conversion of
Digital Numbers (DN) to top of atmosphere reflectance in two steps: First, the DN was
returned to values that can be compared between scenes. Secondly, the values obtained
in step one were converted to account for the difference in solar irradiance due to earth/
sun geometry (orbital distance and tilt). The conversion was carried out in ArcMap using a
raster calculator tool while the scene variables were sourced from metadata files acquired
together with the imagery. To improve clarity and quality of the outputs, image enhance-
ment was performed in the image analysis window in ArcMap.
Geometric correction was executed to improve the geo-location to a Root Mean Square
(RMS) of 0.5 of a pixel as recommended by Ghosh, Kumar, and Roy (2016). According to
Long and Skewes (1996), mangroves will rarely occur further away from the coastline,
thus a 10 km buffer was set around the coastline of the transboundary area to define
the area of interest. The area of interest thus included mangrove cover and the adjacent
land uses/cover along the transboundary area. The corrected images were then subset and
clipped out to include only areas within and adjacent to where mangroves are likely to
occur. This process is imperative as it improves overall image classification accuracy by
reducing image spectral variations as well as the total number of land cover types (Dan
et al., 2016; Ghosh et al., 2016).

Image classification
A hybrid Supervised Maximum Likelihood Classifier (SMLC) and Iso cluster Unsupervised
Classification (IUC) algorithm was used in the image analysis using ESRI ArcGIS 10.5
 JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION 163

software. First, IUC was performed on the clipped images of 2016 and 2018 Landsat and
Sentinel to guide the initial Ground-truthing. These data were critical during generation of
training samples for accuracy assessment processes. Use of two sensors (in this case
Landsat and Sentinel), brings about a number of problems attributable to the differences
in viewing angle, solar illumination condition, radiometric precision and spectral band
pass (Zhang et al., 2018). To overcome the challenge, all cover change comparisons
used Landsat imagery while sentinel was used for mangrove species formation
mapping. The study used SMLC as is well developed theoretically, ease of use, and is a
well-known parametric classifier (Dan et al., 2016; Ghosh et al., 2016; Giri et al., 2008). Train-
ing samples were generated to obtain mangrove and adjacent land use/cover from 1986,
1991, 2003 and 2016 imagery and species cover from 2018 image. To detect changes in
mangrove cover spanning from the 1986 to 2016 period, a postclassification technique
(Nearest Neighbor and Boundary Clean) were employed. This approach provided a
‘from–to’ change information and has been considered the most common change detec-
tion method (FAO, 1994; Giri et al., 2015, 2016). Changes in mangrove cover were carried
out by comparing data of different periods, viz.: 1986–1991, 1991–2003, 2003–2016 and
1986–2016.

Hotspot analysis
Hotspots in this context are locations where observed patterns are not likely the result of
random processes or of subjective cartographic design decisions; they represent places
where there are underlying spatial processes at work (Getis & Ord, 1996). For this study
hotspots of mangrove cover/change were analyzed using spatial statistics tools (integrate,
collect events, incremental spatial out correction and hotspot analysis). High-resolution
imageries from Google Earth were used to validate the observed changes and the ident-
ified drivers.

Structural data analysis

The structural data generated from the field was used to derive the importance value
index (%), stand density (stems/ha), basal area (m2/ha) and stand volume (m3/ha) using
the following equations:
Importance value (%) = Relative dominance% + relative frequency%
+ relative density% (1)

Stand density(stems/ha) = (number of stems in plots × 10,000)/area of the plot (2)

Basal area} = p/4D2130 = 0.00007854D2130 (3)

Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) calculation

NDVI is calculated from the red and the near infrared spectral bands. Other studies have
used NDVI to assess the conditions/status/health of mangrove forests (Muhsoni, Sambah,
Mahmudi, & Wiadnya, 2018; Wachid et al., 2017). For this study NDVI was estimated from
the relation:
NDVI} = (NIR − Red)/(NIR) + Red) (4)
164 F. MUNGAI ET AL.

Ordinarily, an NDVI output varies between −1 to +1. The higher/positive NDVI values
closer to +1 means a healthy ecosystem in this case high density, while on the other
hand the lower NDVI value close to −1 means low density and/or absence of vegetation.

Assessment of classification accuracy

ArcGIS 10.5, Google Earth Pro and part of the data obtained during the fieldwork cam-
paigns were used in assessing the accuracy of all the generated maps of the TBCA.
Thus, an error matrix was generated to derive Producer’s Accuracy (PA), User’s Accuracy
(UA), Overall Accuracy (OA) and Kappa coefficient statistics using the equation:

r
i=1
L i=1 xii − r(Xi + ∗X + i)
K =
r (5)
N − i̇=1 (Xi + ∗X + i)
2

where Kʌ is the kappa coefficient; r the number of rows in the matrix; xii the number of
rows in row i and column i; xi+ and x + i the marginal totals of row i and column i; n the
total number of observations.

Results
Accuracy assessment result
The classification accuracy result for both mangroves cover and species formation was sat-
isfactory, thus warranting output interpretation. The majority of the randomly generated
points on classification outputs were correctly classified. A summary of the overall and
Kappa coefficient accuracies were 87% & 0.76, 87% & 0.83, 92% & 0.89, 91% & 0.88 and
89% & 0.87 for 1986, 1991, 2003, 2016 and 2018 respectively. Table 1 shows an
example of error matrix tables generated for the 2018 epoch in the calculation of
overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient.

Mangrove cover and cover change along the TBCA

Analyses of satellite imagery indicate the area of mangroves in the proposed TBCA to be
11,906 ha. These forests are distributed in 12 distinct ‘pockets or blocks’ along the 175 km
coastline in Kenya and Tanzania. Some 6195 ha (or 55%) of mangrove occur on the Kenyan
side of TBCA, with the remaining 45% occurring in Tanzania. Vanga (in Kenya) contains the
largest single expanse of mangroves (3035 ha) in the TBCA; followed by the areas of
Manza, Tanzania (2863 ha), and Funzi, Kenya (2226 ha).
Both loss and gain of mangrove cover were observed over the study period. Although
the mean mangrove cover change was higher on the Kenyan side of the TBCA, using the
correlational algorithm in Minitab, no significant difference was noted between the two
sides of the transboundary area (t = 1.01 p < 0.05, DF = 5). Over the last three decades,
mangroves in the TBCA declined from 15,015 ha in 1986 to 11,906 ha in 2016; translating
to a loss of 0.69% per annum or 104 ha per year. The loss was particularly higher between
1986 and 1991 (13%) compared to 6.5% and 1.1% losses recorded between 1991 and 2003
and 2003 and 2016 respectively. Loss and degradation of mangroves were disproportio-
nately higher closer to human settlements in both Kenya (Vanga-Funzi system and at
the mouth of Mkurumudzi & Mwachema rivers for Gazi bay and Ukunda systems) and
Table 1. Mangrove species formation error matrix of the 2018 sentinel classified image.
Avicennia Ceriops Ceriops Mixed stand of
Rhizophora mixed Avicennia mixed Sonneratia Rhizophora Rhizophora- pure Ceriops and Raw Producer User
Classified mixed stands stands pure stands stands pure stands pure stands Sonneratia stands Rhizophora Total Accuracy Accuracy
Rhizophora 49 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 52 85.96 94.23
mixed stands
Avicennia mixed 3 53 1 3 0 0 0 0 1 61 84.13 86.89
stands
Avicennia pure 1 4 123 7 1 1 8 1 0 146 93.89 84.25
stands
Ceriops mixed 3 0 6 115 0 0 0 10 0 134 82.14 85.82
stands
Sonneratia pure 0 2 0 4 87 0 0 0 1 94 96.67 92.55
stands

JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION

Rhizophora pure 0 0 0 0 2 96 0 1 0 99 95.05 96.97
stands
Rhizophora– 0 0 1 11 0 4 105 1 2 124 89.74 84.68
Sonneratia
Ceriops pure 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 48 1 54 76.19 88.89
stands
Mixed stand of 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 43 46 89.58 93.48
Ceriops and
Rhizophora
Column total 57 63 131 140 90 101 117 63 48 719
Overall accuracy = 0.89; Kappa = 0.87.

165
166 F. MUNGAI ET AL.

Tanzania (Mafurikoni & Mabokweni within Tanga system, Boda, Mwaboza, and close to
Mhandakini within Manza-Moa systems).
Over the 30 years, the highest loss of mangroves was recorded in the Kenyan side of
TBCA (1248 ha) as compared to the Tanzanian (992 ha). Changes in mangrove cover
were not uniform along the TBCA. Hotspot of losses and degradation of mangrove
forests were identified as Vanga (27 ha/yr) in Kenya, Tanga in Tanzania, (14.5 ha/yr) and
Funzi in Kenya (12.3 ha/yr) as shown in Figure 2.

Structural attributes of mangroves in TBCA

Structural studies of the mangroves were restricted to the Kenya side of TBCA particularly
the Vanga-Funzi systems. At least seven mangrove species were encountered in the area.
These species exist in either single or mixed stands. Based on importance value (IV) index,
the common species of mangroves in Vanga-Funzi mangrove system are R. mucronata C.
tagal, S. alba and A. marina that occupy 81.3% of forest formation (Table 2). Major man-
grove formation in the TBCA is discussed below.

Rhizophora mixed stands

This formation consists of R. mucronata as the dominant species with the occurrence of C.
tagal, S. alba, A. marina and B. gymnorrhiza. This is the most extensive formation occupying
979 ha (or 10%) of the mangroves in the TBCA. Rhizophora mucronata is the most
exploited mangrove species in the study area. This is because it produces quality poles
that are straight and resistance to termites (GoK, 2017). The forest is exploited for building
poles and firewood; with localized overharvesting experienced close to human settlement.

Avicennia mixed stands

In this formation, A. marina is the dominant species mixed with C. tagal, L. racemosa, X.
granatum or/and Xylocarpus moluccensis (where present). The formation is distributed in
both seaward and landward side of the intertidal complex. Across the TBCA, mixed
stands of A. marina occupied about 1450 ha (or 15%) of the mangrove coverage.

Avicennia pure stands

Almost pure stands of A. marina were observed mainly to occur on the landward side of
the mangroves of the study area. On the seaward, A. marina occurs as large trees of up to
20 m tall; whereas on the landward side the species exist as scrub forests with truncated

Table 2. The importance value (IV) of mangroves in the Kenyan side of the transboundary conservation
area.
Species Relative density (%) Relative frequency (%) Relative dominance (%) Importance value
R. mucronata 33.8 33.33 45.41 112.54
C. tagal 52.04 28.57 19.35 99.96
A. marina 8.36 12.7 16.53 37.59
B. gymnorrhiza 3.58 14.29 7.62 25.49
S. alba 2.06 4.76 10.38 17.2
X. granatum 0.12 4.76 0.7 5.58
L. racemosa 0.04 1.59 0.01 1.64
Note: Total number of plots 40. Number of individual encountered 1380.
 JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION 167

Figure 2. Mangrove cover change within the proposed TBCA in Kenya and Tanzania degradation
hotspot areas with an indication of average annual loss (period 1986–2016). Source: Author.

trees of less than 2.0 m tall even if not exploited. Pure A. marina stands occupy some 10%
(956 ha) of mangroves in the TBCA.

Ceriops mixed stands

The formation occupies 18% (1712 ha) of the mangroves in TBCA. The trees in this for-
mation range from 2–10 m tall. As observed by Kairo et al. (2002) Ceriops has a higher
168 F. MUNGAI ET AL.

potential to regenerate as compared to the associated species within the formation.

Where R. mucronata were harvested for wood products (such as in Vanga, Funzi and
Mafuriko (Tanga)) C. tagal were observed to recolonize the exploited sites; transforming
what was superior to inferior forest of low productivity (Kairo et al., 2002).

Sonneratia pure stands

Along the transboundary area pure stands of S. alba are a common feature on the seaward
side of the mangrove forests. The trees with characteristic upright pneumatophores
occupy the Inundation Class 1 of Watson (1928) where they receive daily tides. Pure
stands of S. alba occupy about 3% (319 ha) of the total mangrove forests in the TBCA.
Trees of Sonneratia are exploited for boat building as well as for house construction.

Rhizophora pure stands

Pure stands of R. mucronata occupy only 5% (467 ha) of the mangroves in the TBCA. Selec-
tive logging of Rhizophora mucronata has contributed to localized over-exploitation of the
species in most parts of the transboundary area. To counter this, local communities within
the TBCA have promoted reforestation of R. mucronata among other mangroves species.
For instance, at Gazi Bay small-scale mangrove reforestation dating since the 1990s has
successfully returned the lost R. mucronata, C. tagal and S. alba forests in the degraded
sites. Similar initiatives have been carried out in Moa (Tanzania) and Vanga (Kenya) sites
of TBCA.

Sonneratia–Rhizophora stands
This formation occurs immediately after pure stands of S. alba from the seaward side. Trees
of Sonneratia in the mixed zone appear less productive and with inadequate natural
regeneration compared to the same species in pure stands. Total area occupied by Sonner-
atia-Rhizophora stands is estimated at 6% (521 ha) of mangroves in the TBCA.

Ceriops pure stands

Pure stands of C. tagal are observed in patches across the entire TBCA. They occur in the
middle zone of mangrove formation as well as in the outer zone close to the land. The
species is exploited for building and fuel. Where sediment is suitable for the species,
such as in Sii Island in Kenya, the trees grow to a height of 27 m. In drier parts landward,
however, Ceriops stands to exist as thickets of scrub forests that are difficult to pene-
trate. The total coverage of pure stands of C. tagal in the TBCA is about 1708 ha
(18%). Good stands of C. tagal occur in the Vanga-Funzi system, Gazi and Mafuriko
(near Tanga).

Mixed stands of Ceriops and Rhizophora

This formation occurs on slightly raised ground along the transboundary area within inun-
dation classes 3 and 4 (Watson, 1928). The total coverage of this formation is 15%
(1422 ha) of the total mangroves in TBCA. Selective logging of market superior Rhizophora
trees is promoting recolonization by less desirable C. tagal (Kairo et al., 2002).
 JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION 169

Variation in (NDVI value) mangrove density

The reclassified images after NDVI calculation show a variation in TBCA mangrove density.
The reclassification was based on the mangrove vegetation vigor, which are the dense
vegetation (apparently healthy mangroves) and the sparse vegetation (unhealthy man-
groves including dieback trees, the dead standing and the widely spaced mangroves)
(Table 3). The dense mangroves were dominant compared to the sparse mangrove
though the trend indicated a continuous decline reducing from 92% (13,812 ha) to 69%
(8216 ha) from 1986 and 2016 respectively (Figure 3). On the other hand, the percentage
of sparse mangrove showed an increasing trend from 8% (1203 ha) to 31% (3690 ha) over
the same period.
A variation in the rate of change between dense and sparse mangroves was noted over
the study period. Over the last three decades, from 1986 to 2016, dense mangrove within
the TBCA reduced at a rate of 187 ha per year (1.4%/annum); whereas, sparse mangroves
increased at a rate of 83.0 ha per year (6.9%/annum).

Discussion
Advancements in technology have enabled accurate assessment of mangrove coverage as
well as changes occurring on these important ecosystems over time. In the present study,
mangroves of the Kenya–Tanzania transboundary area with a North–South stretch of
101.9 km and a coastline of 175 km were mapped using a combination of Landsat and
Sentinel imagery; supplemented with detailed ground-truthing. This area is being pro-
posed for Transboundary Conservation Area (TBCA) by the two governments (Figure 1).
The total area of mangroves in TBCA is estimated at 11,906 ha. The forest is in a
different health state, with sparse, high number of stumps and low-quality poles
(bowed poles) presenting as a sign of degradation; with the mangroves at Kenya’s side
of TBCA showing more losses and degradation than those in Tanzania. Losses and degra-
dation of mangroves in the TBCA have been associated with overharvesting of mangrove
wood products (as indicated by a large number of stumps encountered during ground-
truthing), conversion of mangrove areas for other land uses (such as pond aquaculture
and rice farming) and pollution from municipal wastes (UNEP, 2009). There were observa-
ble increases in mangrove area in the Tanzanian side of the TBCA over the 1986–1991
period; coinciding with a 1987 national ban on mangrove harvesting in Tanzania (Wang
et al., 2003).
Overall, the average rate of mangroves loss in the TBCA during the 2003–2016 epoch
reduced to 0.12%/annum. The reduced rate could be attributed to the ban on domestic
harvesting of mangrove wood products, restoration effort at different sites within the
TBCA, as well as increased awareness of true values of mangroves amongst the commu-
nities (Bosire et al., 2016). A good example is at Gazi Bay (Kenya) and Moa (Tanzania)
where community participation in mangrove restoration has significantly contributed to
rehabilitation, conservation and sustainable utilization of mangroves in the area (Bosire
et al., 2016; Kairo, Dahdouh-Guebas, Bosire, & Koedam, 2001). Expansions of mangrove
cover along the channels and upstream may be attributed to changes in salinity
regimes as a result of sea level rise and altered fresh water discharge through increased
 170
F. MUNGAI ET AL.
Table 3. Class cover distribution classified by threshold.
Thresholds (NDVI values) 1986 1991 2003 2016
Class cover 1986 1991 2003 2016 Area (ha) % Area (ha) % Area (ha) % Area (ha) %
Dense mangroves 0.21–0.67 0.21–0.69 0.21–0.49 0.21–0.46 13,812 91.99 11,468 89.18 10,517 87.10 8216 69.01
Sparse mangroves 0.3–0.2 0.38–0.2 0.46–0.2 0.14–0.2 1203 8.01 1391 10.82 1557 12.90 3690 30.99
Total area 15,015 100 12,859 100 12,074 100 11,906 100
 JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION 171

Figure 3. Spatiotemporal variation in the density of mangrove generated from Landsat images along
the TBCA over the study period (1986–2016). Each epoch represents compilation of images either
obtained a year before, during or after the mentioned year. Source: Author.

upstream damming of the major rivers (Bosire et al., 2014). New stands of A. marina were
observed along the channels and mudflats of rivers Umba, Mkurumudzi and Pangani.
Although the pattern of degradation can largely be attributed to anthropogenic causes,
natural factors have also contributed to the observed changes in the forest conditions.
Climate-mediated events, including increased sea level rise, extended drought, flooding,
and increased sedimentation have been reported to contribute to loss and degradation
172 F. MUNGAI ET AL.

of mangroves in Kenya (Bosire et al., 2014; Kitheka, Ongwenyi, & Mavuti, 2002). Temporal
and spatial variations in mangroves of the TBCA could be attributed to both anthropogenic
(selective harvesting, land use changes, obstruction of freshwater flow) and natural causes
(pest attack and sediment dynamics) (Bosire et al., 2014; GoK, 2017; UNEP, 2009).
Selective logging of R. mucronata over other species within the TBCA has led to loca-
lized over-exploitation of the species. This has a long-term effect on the structural trans-
formation of the forest from superior to inferior stands of low productivity (Kairo et al.,
2002). Rhizophora poles are preferred in the market because of their height and straight
form, and the fact that they are resistant to termites (Bosire et al., 2014; UNEP, 2009).

Conclusion
From the image analysis, it is evident that transboundary mangroves of Kenya and Tanza-
nia are not pristine. The rates of mangrove degradation are higher on the Kenyan side of
the proposed TBCA as compared to the Tanzanian side. It is also evident that the rate of
mangrove loss within TBCA has slightly decreased; however, without management inter-
ventions removal of mangrove wood products is likely to increase. The results of this study
could provide a good baseline for initiating mangrove conservation within the trans-
boundary area. This could include promotion of conservation incentive involving man-
grove forests. Perhaps a good learning point would be Mikoko Pamoja, a community-
type project in Kenyan side of TBCA that is restoring and protecting mangrove forests
through the sale of carbon credits (www.mikokopamoja.org). Mikoko Pamoja is verified
by the Plan Vivo system and standards to sell ca. 3000 tCO2-e/yr in the international
market for a crediting period of 20 years. Revenue generated from the sale of carbon
credits (of about US$15,000/yr) is channeled into the community for use in local develop-
ment projects in water and sanitation, education, health and environmental conservation.
With additional financing through UNEP/GEF Blue Forest Project, Leonardo Di Caprio
Foundation as well as through International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI) activities of
Mikoko Pamoja are being promoted in the mangrove of Vanga (Kenya). The new
carbon incentive scheme in Vanga will offset 7000tCO2-e/yr with the income ploughed
back into the community (www.planvivo.org/docs). In both Kenya and Tanzania mangrove
monitoring is carried out using similar standards and methodology (structural surveys and
use of remotely sensed data); similar governance structures exist for mangrove forests
within and outside protected areas. Lastly, diverging economic and resources legislation
needs brings about changes in resource utilization in both Kenya and Tanzania. This simi-
larities and differences provide a basis for the two countries to coordinate, mutually
consult as well as align for a TBCA to enhance management of the critical ‘blue carbon’
ecosystems among others of the two countries. It is anticipated that results of this
study can be used to strengthen the capacity of the institutions mandated to manage
mangroves in the two countries, as well as proving baselines for improved management
of mangroves in the transboundary area.

Acknowledgement
We wish to express our appreciation to all those who provided data and information towards suc-
cessful implementation of the project. Communities in Vanga and Tanga are thanked for their
 JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION 173

support and hospitality during the fieldwork. FM is a postgraduate student in the Trans-Coast project
under the direct supervision of JK, JM and BK. JK and NC designed the project. BK assisted in data
analysis. NK, MM and JK coordinated the Trans-Coast project and initiated the research for policy-
support under this program.

Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Funding
The authors acknowledge financial support of the Flemish Interuniversity Council – University Devel-
opment Cooperation (VLIR-UOS) through the TEAM project ‘Transboundary coastal processes and
human resource utilisation patterns as a basis for a Kenya-Tanzania conservation area initiative
(Trans-Coast)’ ZEIN2016PR425. Additional support was through UNEP/International Coral Reef Initiat-
ive (ICRI) grant, UNEP/GEF Blue Forest Project, as well as Leonardo Di Caprio Foundation.

Notes on contributors
Fredrick Mungai is a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and RS expert currently interning at
Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute expecting to obtain MSc in Geography from
Egerton University in June 2019. He has extensive training that has covered GIS, Remote Sensing,
environment conservation, computer-aided cartography, applied statistics, research methods and
environmental impact assessment. Fredrick is skilled in ArcGIS 10.x with its related data processing,
input and output as well as open Source GIS Products e.g. Google Earth, QGIS, Google Maps. In
addition, he has Remote Sensing skills in using ERDAS 2014, ENVI 5.x and knowledge in handling
raster data as well as sound GPS skills and applications. Fredrick has recently gained extensive knowl-
edge in mapping of resources and extraction of valuable information from satellite imagery by
working in various projects including Trans-Coast and National Determined Contributions projects
as the lead GIS analyst.
James Kairo initiated his university career at the University of Nairobi in Kenya; where he obtained
BSc and MSc in Biology. He then obtained PhD at the University of Brussels (Belgium) on the theme
of ecology and restoration of mangrove systems. Dr Kairo is currently a Chief Scientist at the Kenya
Marine and Fisheries Research Institute; and the coordinator of mangrove research program in
Kenya. Dr Kairo has vast working experience on the conservation, rehabilitation and sustainable util-
ization coastal and marine resources, which has earned him several national and international
awards. In 2010, he was awarded the Kenya’s Presidential Award of the ‘Moran of the Order of
the Burning Spear (MBS) for his contribution in the advancement of marine conservation in the
country. In addition, he was recently awarded the 2019 global Pew Fellowship award in Marine Con-
servation. Dr Kairo is currently serving the global community as a member of Scientific Working
Group on Blue Carbon He is the coordinating author of the IPCC’s special report on oceans and cryo-
sphere (SROCC).
John Mironga is a senior lecturer in Department of Geography in Faculty of Environmental and
Resources Development, Egerton University. Dr Mironga has specialized in Geographic Information
Systems and Remote Sensing, Biogeography, Ecology of Invasive Species, Conservation Agriculture,
Wetland Ecology, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Impact Assessment, Strategic Environ-
mental Assessment. Currently, Dr Mironga is also serving as an Environmental Management Repre-
sentative in the university and has previously served as the Dean of Faculty of Environment and
Resource Development, Egerton University between 2013 and 2015. As a principle investigator,
he has been involved in the assessment of the dynamics of land cover changes in Lake Naivasha
Basin, Kenya a project funded by Egerton University Internal Research Funds Research and Extension
Division from 2014 to 2016.
174 F. MUNGAI ET AL.

Bernard Kirui is a Post-doc Fellow in Mangrove Ecology. He has specialized in Forest Ecology, Inter-
tidal Ecology (Mangroves), Biodiversity and Ecosystem function. Dr Kirui is currently the Chair and a
senior lecturer in the Department of Natural Resources in Faculty of Environment and Natural
Resources Development, Egerton University. Previously Dr Kirui worked as a research officer at
Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute and was a Co-Principle Investigator of Earth-watch
mangrove forests of Kenya Expedition Project. In addition, he has been involved in the assessment
of Effects of Climate change-related factors on mangrove forest provisioning of goods and services;
Case Study of Tana River Delta, Kenya funded by Africa Climate Change Fellowship Programme
(ACCFP).
Mwita Mangora is a doctor teaching at the Institute of Marine Sciences University of Dar es Salaam.
Dr. Mangora is trained in Biological Oceanography and Marine Ecology which is his area of special-
ization. In addition, he has acquired skills in Mangrove Ecology and Management; Forest Biodiversity
Assessment, Community Forestry, Aspects of Marine Protected Areas’ Management. Dr. Mangora has
recently been involved in several activities which include Ecology and stress ecophysiology of man-
groves forests; responses to climate change and related environment and anthropogenic pressures.
Socio-ecological studies on mangroves: understanding dynamics of mangrove ecosystem services,
management and restoration, and livelihoods of dependent communities. Management and
socio-ecological impact assessment of Marine Protected Areas.
Nico Koedam is a full professor at the Faculty of Sciences and Bio-engineering Sciences. Trained as a
plant scientist (MSc and PhD), his initial doctoral and postdoctoral research in physio-ecology
evolved to plant–microorganism interactions. When appointed as the Head of the research group
Plant Biology and Nature Management at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel in 1993, research was oriented
and widened, with ‘mangrove ecology and physiology’ as an overarching theme. His teaching
assignment covers a wide range of courses on ecology, biogeography, nature management and
policy and governance, for BSc and MSc students’ biology, geography and bio-engineering. He is
the promotor of the MSc programme Marine and Lacustrine Science and Management (‘Oceans &
Lakes’), an International Course Programme financially supported by the University Development
Cooperation section of the Flemish Interuniversity Council (VLIR UOS), jointly organized with the
universities of Ghent and Antwerp.

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