Unit – 2

DEMAND ANALYSIS

Introduction to Demand

Demand means the ability and willingness to buy a specific quantity of a commodity
at the prevailing price in a given period of time. Therefore, demand for a commodity implies
the desire to acquire it, willingness and the ability to pay for it.

Demand refers to how much (quantity) of a product or service is desired by buyers.

The quantity demanded is the amount of a product people are willing to buy at a certain price.
Demand for a good by a consumer is not the same thing as his desire to buy it. A desire
becomes a demand only when it is effective which means that, given the price of the good,
the consumer should be both willing and able to pay for the quantity which he wants to buy.

Thus three things are essential for a desire for a commodity to become effective demand

 Desire of a consumer to buy the commodity

 Willingness of a consumer to buy the commodity
 Ability of a consumer (having sufficient purchase power or money) to buy the
commodity

DEFINITION OF DEMAND

According to Ferguson, “Demand refers to quantities of a commodity that the consumers are
able and willing to buy at each possible price during a given period of time, other things
being equal.”

DEMAND FUNCTION:

In demand analysis, one should recognise that at any point in time the quantity of a
given product that will be purchased by the consumers depends on a number of key variables
or determinants. In technical jargon, it is stated in terms of demand function for the given
product. A demand function in mathematical terms expresses the functional relationship
between the demand for the product and its various determining variables.

Qd= f ( P,I,Ps, Pc, A, T, S,S&W, Ep, Ei,O)

Where

Qd= Quantity Demand

f= Functional Relationship
P = Price of the Product
I = Income level of consumer
Ps = Price of Substitute commodity
Pc = price of Complementarycommodity
A = Amount spent on Advertisement
T= Taste and Preference of the consumer
S = Size and Composition of population
S&W = Season and Weather
Ep = Expected Price in future
Ei = Expected Income in future
O = Other Factors

Determinates of Demand

 Price of the product: The price of a product or service is generally inversely

proportional to the quantity demanded while other factors are constant. Rational
consumer always preferred to purchase more quantity when the price of the
commodity is low and vice versa.

 Income level of consumer: The level of income of individuals determines their

purchasing power. Generally, income and demand are directly proportional to each
other. This implies that rise in the consumers‟ income results in rise in the demand for
a commodity.
 Price of Substitute commodity: The related goods are generally substitutes and
complementary goods. The demand for a product is also influenced by the prices of
substitutes. When a want can be satisfied by alternative similar goods, they are called
substitutes, such as coffee and tea. If the Price coffee quantity demanded of tea also
increases since consumer shifty for coffee to tea leading to direct relationship between
substitute goods.

 Price of Complementary Commodity: The demand for a product is also influenced

by the prices of complementary goods. The complementary goods are the goods
which are used by consumer together at same time. Whenever the price of one good
and the demand of another good are inversely related then the goods are said to be
complementary, such as car and petrol. If the price of the car increases, the quantity of
demanded of petrol is deceases and vice versa.

 Amount spent on Advertisement: In modern times, the preferences of consumers

can be altered by advertisement and sales propaganda. Advertisement helps in
increasing demand by informing the potential consumers about the availability of the
product, by showing the superiority of the product, and by influencing consumer
choice against the rival products. The demand for products like detergents and
cosmetics is mainly caused by advertisement.Hence amount spent on advertisement is
having direct relationship with quantity demanded of the commodity.

 Taste and Preference of the consumer: The demand for a product depends upon
tastes and preferences of the consumers. If the consumers develop taste for a
commodity they buy whatever may be the price. A favorable change in consumer
preference will cause the demand to increase. Likewise an unfavorable change in
consumer preferences will cause the demand to decrease.

 Size and Composition of population: Increase in population raises the market

demand, while decrease in population reduces the market demand. Composition of
population i.e. ratio of males, females, children and number of old people in the
population also affects the demand for a commodity.

 Season and Weather: Seasonal factors also affect the demand. The demand for
certain items purely depends on climatic and weather conditions. For example, the
growing demand for cold drinks during the summer season and the demand for
sweaters during the winter season.

 Expected Price in Future: One of the determinate demand buyers' expectations

about future price of the commodity. If a buyer expects the price of a good to go down
in the future, they hold off buying it today, so the demand for that good today
decreases. On the other hand, if a buyer expects the price to go up in the future, the
demand for the good today increases.

 Expected Income in future:If one expects an increase in future income, his demand
at present would also increase. On the other hand, if one expects a decline in future
 income earnings, his demand at present would fall and he would rather want to save
some money to take care of future expenses and uncertainties.

Nature and Types of Demand

1. Consumer Goods Demand Vs Producer Goods Demand:

Consumer goods refers to such products and services which are capable of
satisfying human need. Goods can be grouped under consumer goods and producer
goods. Consumer goods are those which are available for ultimate consumption.
These give direct and immediate satisfaction. Example are bread, apple, and rice and
so on. Producer goods are those which are used for further processing or production
of goods/services to earn income. Example are machinery or a tractor, and such
others.

2. Autonomous Demand Vs Derived Demand:.

Autonomous demand refers to the demand for products and services directly.
The demand for the services of a super speciality hospital can be considered as
autonomous whereas the demand for the hotels around that hospital is call a derived
demand. In case of a derived demand, the demand for a product arises out of the
purchase of a parent product. If there is no demand for houses, there may not be
demand for steel, cement, bricks and so on.Demand for houses is autonomous
whereas demand for these inputs is derived demand.

3. Durable Goods Demand Vs Perishable Goods Demand:

Here the demand for goods is classified based on their durability. Durable
goods are those goods which give service relatively for a long period. The life of
perishable goods is very lessmay be in hours or days. Example of perishable goods
are milk, vegetables, fish, and such. Rice , wheat , sugar, and so on. such others can
be examples of durable goods.
4. Firm Demand Vs Industry Demand:
The firm is a single business units whereas industry refers to the group of
firms carrying on similar activity. The quantity of goods demanded by a single firm is
called firm demand and the quantity demanded by the industry as a whole is called
industry demand. One construction company may use 100 tonnes of cement during a
given month which is firm demand. The construction industry in a particular state
may have used ten million tonnes which is industry demand.

5. Short – run Demand Vs Long – run Demand:

Joel Dean defines short – run demand as „the demand with its immediate
reaction to price changes, income fluctuations and so on. Long run demand is that
demand which will ultimately exist as a result of the changes in pricing, promotion or
 product improvement, after enough time is allowed to let the market adjust itself to
the given situation.

6. New Demand Vs Replacement Demand:

New demand refers to the demand for the new products and it is the addition
to the existing stock. In replacement demand, the item is purchased to maintain the
asset in good condition. The demand for cars is new demand and the demand for spare
parts is replacement demand.

7. Total Market Vs Segment Market Demand:

Consider the consumption of sugar in a given region. The total demand for
sugar in the region is the total market demand. The demand for sugar comes from the
sweet making industry from this region is the segment market demand. The market
segmentation concept is very useful because it enables the study of its specific
requirements, if any, such as taste and preferences, and so on. A markets segment can
be defined in terms of specific criteria such as location, age, sex or income and so on.
The aggregate demand of all the segment markets is called the total market demand.

LAW OF DEMAND

The law of demand is one of the most important laws of economics theory. According
to law of demand, other things being equal, if the price of a commodity falls, the quantity
demanded of it will rise and if the price of a commodity rises, its quantity demanded will
decline. Thus, there is an inverse relationship between price and quantity demanded, other
things being same.

Definition of law of demand

According to Marshal, “The law of demand states that other things being equal the quantity
demanded increases with a fall in price & diminishes when price increases.”

According to Ferguson, “According to the law of demand, the quantity demanded varies
inversely with price.”

The law of demand may be explained with the help of demand schedule.

Price of Apple (in. Quantity Demanded

Rs.) (in Units)

10 1

8 2
 6 3

4 4

2 5

Assumptions of Law of Demand:

 No change in Income level of consumer

 No change in Price of Substitute commodity
 No change in Price of Complementary Commodity
 No change in the Amount spent on Advertisement
 No change in Taste and Preference of the consumer
 No change in Size and Composition of population
 No change in Season and Weather
 No change in Expected Price in Future
 No change in Expected Price in Future

Exceptions to the law of Demand:

There are certain exceptions to the law of demand in other words, the law of
demand is not applicable in the following cases.

 Giffen Goods: People whose incomes are low purchase more of a commodity such as
broken rice, barley, Java , bread, potato etc (which is their staple food) when its price
rises. Inversely when its price falls, instead of buying more, they buy less of this
commodity and use the savings for the purchase of better goods such as meat. This
phenomenon is called Giffens paradox and such goods are called Giffen goods.
 Veblen Goods: Products such as jewels, diamonds and so on confer distinction on the
part of the user. In such case, the consumers tend to buy more goods when price
increased and less purchase when price decreased. Such goods are called Veblen
Goods. Or prestige good which shows their status.
  Speculative Effect: If the price of the commodity is increasing the consumers will
buy more of it because of the fear that it increase still further in future and vice versa,
for example price of shares, etc. Thus, an increase in price may not be accomplished
by a decrease in demand.
 Fear Shortages: If the consumers fear that there may be shortage of goods, then law
of demand does not applicable. They may tend to buy more than what they require
immediately, even if the price of the product increases.
 In case of ignorance of price changes/ impulse buying: When the customer is not
familiar with the changes in the price, he tends to buy even if there is increase in
price. Consumers tend to buy more even the price is high because of impulse
behaviour.
 Necessities: In the case of necessities like salt, match box, etc. Demand would not
change evens price of this items changes.

ELASTICITY OF DEMAND

Prof. Marshall introduced the concept of elasticity of demand to measure the change in
demand. Thus elasticity of demand is the measurement of the change in demand in response
to a given change in the price of a commodity. It measures how much demand will change in
response to a certain increase or decrease in the price of a commodity.

Elasticity of demand is defined as the ratio of the percentage change in quantity demanded to
the percentage change in the demand determinant under consideration.

DEFINITIONS OF ELASTICITY OF DEMAND

According to E.K. Estham “Elasticity of demand is measure of the responsiveness of

quantity demanded to a change in price”
According to Prof. Benham “The concept relates to the effect of a small change in price
upon the amount demanded”.

According to Prof. Boulding. “The elasticity of demand may be defined as the percentage
change in the quantity demanded which would result from percent change in price.”

TYPES OF ELASTICITY OF DEMAND:

1. Price elasticity of demand

2. Income elasticity of demand
3. Cross elasticity of demand
4. Promotional elasticity of demand

1. Price elasticity of demand:Elasticity of demand in general refers to price elasticity of

demand. In other words, it refers to the quantity demanded of a commodity in response to a
given change in price. Price elasticity is always negative which indicates that the customer
tends to buy more with every fall in the price, the relationship between the price and the
demand is inverse.

OR

Where:

Q1 = Quantity demand before change

Q2 = Quantity demand after change

P1 = Price before change

P2 = Price after change

2.Income elasticity of demand: Income elasticity of demand refers to the quantity demand
of a commodity in response to a given change income.

OR

Where:

Q1 = Quantity demand before change

Q2 = Quantity demand after change

I1 = Income before change

I2 = Income after change

3. Cross elasticity of demand:Cross elasticity of demand refers to the quantity demanded of

a commodity in response to a change in the price of a related good, which may be substitute
or complement.
OR

Where:

Qx1 = Quantity demand before change

Qx2 = Quantity demand after change

Py1 = Price before change

Py2 = Price after change

4. Advertising elasticity of demand: It refers to increase in the sales revenue because of

change in the advertising expenditure. In other words, there is a direct relationship between
the amount of money spent on advertising and its impact on sales. Advertising elasticity is
always positive.

OR
Where:

Q1 = Quantity demand before change

Q2 = Quantity demand after change

A1 = Advertising expenditure before change

A2 = Advertising expenditure after change

Measurement Elasticity of Demand

1. Perfectly elasticity of demand

2. Perfectly inelasticity of demand
3. Relatively elasticity of demand
4. Relatively inelasticity of demand
5. Unity elasticity of demand

1. Perfectly Elastic Demand (Ep = ∞): When any quantity can be sold at a given price and
when there is no need to reduce price, the demand is to be perfectly elastic. In such cases,
even a small increase in price will lead to complete fall in demand. The shape of demand
curve is horizontal. In simple words where no reduction in price is needed to cause an
increase in quantity demanded.
2. Perfectly Inelastic Demand (Ep = 0): In perfectly inelastic demand the demand of a
commodity does not changes, whatever be the change in its price. Arithmetically, it is known as zero
elastic demand. The shape of demand curve is vertical. In simple words where a change in price,
however large, causes no change in quantity demanded.

3. Relatively elastic of demand (Ep > 1): Demand changes more than proportionately to change
in price. i.e., a small change in price leads to a very big change in the quantity demanded. The shape
of demand curve is in the semi – horizontal or flat. In simple word the demand is said to be
relatively elastic when the change in demand is more than the change in the price.

Relatively inelastic of demand (Ep < 1): The quantity demanded changes less than
proportionately to a change price. A large change in price leads to a small change in amount
demanded. The shape of demand curve is semi - variable or steep. In simple word the demand is said
to be relatively inelasticity when the change in demand is less than the change in the price.
Unitary elastic demand (Ep =1): In unitary elastic demand proportionate change in the price of a
commodity and proportionate change in its demand are equal. It is called as unitary elastic demand.
The shape of demand curve is rectangular hyperbola. In simple word the elastic in demand is said
to be unitary when the change in demand is equal to the change in price.

FACTORS DETERMINING ELASTICITY OF DEMAND

1. Nature of commodity: According to the nature of satisfaction the goods give, they
may be classified into luxury, comfort or necessary goods. In general, luxury and
comfort goods are price elastic, while necessary goods are price inelastic, thus, for
example, the demand for food grains, cloth, salt etc. is generally inelastic while that
for radio, furniture, car, etc. is elastic.
2. Substitutes: Demand is elastic for those goods which have substitutes and inelastic
for those goods which have no substitutes. The availability of substitutes, thus,
determines the elasticity of demand. For instance, tea and coffee are substitutes. The
change in the price of tea affects the demand for coffee. Hence, the demand for coffee
is elastic.
3. Number of Uses:Elasticity of demand for any commodity depends on its number of
uses. Demand is elastic; if a commodity has more uses and inelastic if it has only one
use. As coal has multiple uses, if its price falls it will be demanded more for cooking,
heating, industrial purposes etc. But if its price rises, minimum will be demanded for
every purpose.
4. Postponement:Demand is more elastic for goods the use of which can be postponed.
For example, if the price of silk rises, its consumption can be postponed. The demand
for silk is, therefore, elastic. Demand is inelastic for those goods the use of which is
 urgent and, therefore, cannot be postponed. The use of medicines cannot be put off.
Hence, the demand for medicines is inelastic.
5. Raw Materials and Finished Goods: The demand for raw materials is inelastic but
the demand for finished goods is elastic. For instance, raw cotton has inelastic
demand but cloth has elastic demand. In the same way, petrol has inelastic demand
but car itself has only elastic demand.
6. Price Level: The demand is elastic goods at higher prices but inelastic goods at lower
prices. The rich and the poor do not bother about the prices of the goods that they buy.
7. Nature of Expenditure: The elasticity of demand for a commodity also depends as to
how much part of the income is spent on that particular commodity. The demand for
such commodities where a small part of income is spent is generally highly inelastic
i.e. newspaper, boot-polish etc. On the other hand, the demand of such commodities
where a significant part of income is spent, elasticity of demand is very elastic.
8. Hobbits farming characteristic: In case of hobbit farming characteristic goods like
tobacco cigarettes, alcohol etc. demand is inelastic for the reason even price increases
the demand remain same.

Significance and Importance of Elasticity of Demand

a. Planning the levels of output and price:

The knowledge of price elasticity is very useful to producers. The producer
can evaluate whether a change in price will bring in adequate revenue or not. In
general, for items whose demand is elastic, it would benefit him to charge relatively
low price. On the other hand, if the demand for the product is inelastic, a little higher
price may be helpful to him to get huge profits without losing sales.

b. Price fixation:
The manufacturer can decide the amount of price that can be fixed for his
product based on the concept of elasticity. If there is no competition, in other words in
the case of a monopoly, the manufacture is free to fix his price as long as it does not
attract the attention of the government. When there are close substitutes, the product
is such that its consumption can be postponed, it cannot be put to alternative uses and
so on, then the price of the product cannot be fixed very highly.
c. Price of factors of production:
The factors of production are land, labour, capital, organization and
technology. These have a cost: hence manufactures have to pay rent, wages, interest,
 profits and price for these factors of production. Elasticity of demand help to
determinant how much should be paid for this factors of production.
d. Government policies:
1. Tax policies: Government extensively depends on this concept to finalize its
polices relating to taxes and revenues. Where the product is such that the people
cannot postpone its consumptions, the government tends to increase its price, such
as petrol and diesel, cigarettes, and so on.
2. Raising bank deposits: If the government wants to mobilize larger deposits from
the consumer it propose to raise the rates of fixed deposits marginally and vice
versa.
3. Public utilities: Government uses the concept of elasticity in fixing charges for
the public utilities such as elasticity tariff, water charges, ticket fare in case of
road or rail transport .
e. Forecasting demand:
Income elasticity is used to forecast demand for a particular product or
services. The demand for the products can be forecast at a given income level. The
trader can estimate the quantity of goods to be sold at different income levels to
realize the targeted revenue.

DEMAND FORECASTING

Future is uncertain. There is great deal of uncertainty with regard to demand. Since
the demand is uncertain, production, cost, revenue, profit etc. are also uncertain. Through
forecasting it is possible to minimise the uncertainties.

Demand forecasting can be defined as a process of predicting the future demand for
an organisation‟s goods or services. It is also referred to as sales forecasting as it involves
anticipating the future sales figures of an organisation.

Demand forecasting helps an organisation to take various business decisions, such as

planning the production process, purchasing raw materials, managing funds, and deciding the
price of its products. Demand can be forecasted by organisations either internally by making
estimates called guess estimate or externally through specialised consultants or market
research agencies.

Definition of demand forecasting

According to Evan J. Douglas, “Demand estimation (forecasting) may be defined as a

process of finding values for demand in future time periods.”
According to Cundiff and Still, “Demand forecasting is an estimate of sales during a
specified future period based on proposed marketing plan and a set of particular
uncontrollable and competitive forces.”

DEMAND FORECASTING METHODS

SURVEY METHODS
Survey methods are the most commonly used methods of forecasting demand in the
short run. This method relies on the future purchase plans of consumers and their intentions
to anticipate demand. Thus, in this method, an organization conducts surveys with consumers
to determine the demand for their existing products and services and anticipate the future
demand accordingly. As consumers generally plan their purchases in advance, their opinions
and intentions may be sought to analyse trends in market demand.

Survey of Buyers’ Intentions Method: It is also known as consumers‟ expectations or

opinions survey. It is commonly used method for sales forecasting. A sale is the result of
consumer intention to buy the product. Many companies conduct periodical survey of
consumers‟ buying interest to know when and how much they will buy.

Census Method: the census method is also called as a Complete Enumeration Survey Method
wherein each and every item in the universe is selected for the data collection. The universe might
constitute a particular place a group of people or any specific locality which is the complete set of
items and which are of interest in any particular situation.

The census methods is most commonly used by the government in connection with the national
population, housing census, agriculture census, etc. where the vast knowledge about these fields is
required. Whenever the entire population is studied to collect the detailed data about every unit, then
the census method is applied.

Sample Methods: Useful data for forecasting demand can also be obtained from surveys of
consumer plans. Unlike the complete enumeration method, under the sample survey method, only a
few potential consumers from the relevant market selected through an appropriate sampling method
are interviewed. The survey may be conducted either through direct interview or mailed questionnaire
to the sample consumers.

SALES FORCE METHODS: Sometimes, it is called sales force estimate method. Company
can ask, either all or some of salesmen, to estimate demand for a given time. Each sales
representative estimates how much each current and prospective customer will buy the
company‟s product. They are offered certain incentives to encourage them better estimate.

Here, for estimating the future demand, the company‟s sales force opinions are taken
as a base. Since salesmen have direct and close contact with customers, competitors, dealers,
and overall market environment, they can provide more reliable estimates of the future sales.

STATISTICAL METHODS

Statistical method is used for long run forecasting. In this method, statistical and
mathematical techniques are used to forecast demand. This relies on past data.

1. Trend projection method: these are generally based on analysis of past sales
patterns.
These methods dispense with the need for costly market research because the necessary
information is often already available in company files. This method is used in case the sales
data of the firm under consideration relate to different time periods, i.e., it is a time – series
data. There are five main techniques of mechanical extrapolation.

a. Trend line by observation: this method of forecasting trend is elementary, easy and
quick. It involves merely the plotting of actual sales data on a chart and then estimating
just by observation where the trend line lies. The line can be extended towards a future
period and corresponding sales forecast is read form the graph.

b. Least squares methods: this technique uses statistical formulae to find the trend line
which best fits the available data. The trend line is the estimating equation, which can
be used for forecasting demand by extrapolating the line for future and reading the
corresponding values of sales on the graph.
The equation for straight line trend is
 y= a+bx

Where “a” is intersect and “b” shows the impact of independent variable. Sales are dependent
on variable “y” since sales vary with time period which will be the independent variable “x”
thus “y” intercept and the slope of line are formed by making appropriate substitutions in the
following normal equations

c. Time series analysis:Where the surveys or market tests are costly and time
consuming, statistical and mathematical analysis of past sales data offers another
method to prepare the forecasts, that is, time series analysis. One major requirement to
administer this technique is that the product should have actively been traded in the
market for quite some time in the past.
The following are the four major components analysed from time series while
forecasting the demand:
Tends (T): It also called the long term trend. The result of basic developments in the
population, capital formation and technology. These development relate to over a
period of long time say five to ten years, not definitely overnight. The trend is
considered statistically significant when it has reasonable degree of consistency. A
significant trend is central and decisive factor considered while preparing a long range
forecast.
Cyclic Trend (C): it is seen in the wave like movement of sales. The sales data is quite
often affected by swings in the levels of general economic activity, which tend to be
somewhat periodic. These could be related to the business cycles in the economy such
as inflation or recession.
Seasonal Trend (S): It refers to a consistent pattern of sales movements within the
year. More goods are sold during the festival seasons. The seasonal component may
be related to weather factors, holidays, etc.
Erratic Trend (E): It results from the sporadic occurrence of strikes, riots, and so on.
These erratic components can even damage the impact of more systematic
components and thus make the forecasting process much more complex.

Classical time series analysis involves procedures for decomposing the original sales
series (Y) into the components T,C,S,E. there are different models in the time series
analysis. While one model states that these components interact linearly, that is, Y =
T+C+S+E, another model states that Y is the product of all these component that is,
 d. Moving average method:A moving average is a technique that calculates the overall
trend in sales volume from historical data of the company. This techniques is very
useful for forecasting short – term trends. It is simply the average of select time
periods. It called moving as a new demand number is calculated for an upcoming time
period.

Moving Average = (n1+n2+n3+ …….)/n

e. Exponential smoothing:It uses all the time series values to generate a forecast with
lesser weights given to the observations further back in time. Exponential smoothing
is actually a way of “smoothing” out the data by eliminating much of the “noise”(
random effects). At each period t, an exponentially smoothed level , L is calculated
which updates the previous level, L1, as the best current estimate of the unknown
constant level, β, of the time series by the following formula:

2. Barometric Technique: Simple trend projections are not capable of forecasting turning
points. Under Barometric method, present events are used to predict the directions of change
in future. This is done with the help of economics and statistical indicators. Those are (1)
Construction Contracts awarded for building materials (2) Personal income (3) Agricultural
Income. (4) Employment (5) Gross national income (6) Industrial Production (7) Bank
Deposits etc.

3Correlation and regression methods: correlation and regression methods are statistical
techniques. Correlation describes the degree of association between two variable such as
sales and advertisement expenditure. When the two variable tend to change together, then
they are said to be correlated.
Regression method: An equation is estimated which best fits in the sets of observations of
dependent variables and independent variables. The best estimate of the true underlying
relationship between these variables is thus generated. The dependent (unknown) variable is
the forecast based on this estimated equation for a given value of the independent (known)
variable. The method of least squares is applied in most regression. As the regression
coefficients estimated from the sample observations are the best estimate of true population
parameters, the regression equation cannot exactly predict the dependent variable for a given
value of the independent variable.
4. Simultaneous equation method:Under simultaneous equation model, demand forecasting
involves the estimation of several simultaneous equations. These equations are often the
behavioral equations, market-clearing equations, and mathematical identities.

The regression technique is based on the assumption of one-way causation, which means
independent variables cause variations in the dependent variables, and not vice-versa. In
simple terms, the independent variable is in no way affected by the dependent variable. For
example, D = a – bP, which shows that price affects demand, but demand does not affect the
price, which is an unrealistic assumption.

Expert opinion methods:

Well informed persons are called experts; experts constitute yet another source of
information. These persons are generally the outside experts and they do not have any vested
interest in the results of a particular survey. As expert is good at forecasting and analysis the
future trend in a given product or service at a given level of technology. The service of an
expert could be advantageously used when a firm uses general economic forecasting or
special industry forecasting prepared outside the firm.

Delphi Method: It refers to a group decision making technique of forecasting demand. In this
method, questions are individually asked from a group of experts to obtain their opinions on
demand for products in future. These questions are repeatedly asked until a consensus is
obtained.

In other words the Delphi method is a structured communication technique, originally

developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.

Advantages:

 Opportunities for large number of people to participate.

 Focus is on “ideas” rather than “individuals”.
 Anonymity for participants which make contributions of ideas as safe activity.
 Opportunities for participants to reconsider their opinions.
 Allows for identification of priorities.

Limitations:

 Large amount of time to conduct several rounds.

 The complexity of data analysis.
 The difficulty of maintaining participant enthusiasm throughout the process.
 The problem of keeping statements value free and clearly defined.
 Self-reporting data is subject to respondent biases and memories.

Test marketing:
 It is likely that opinions given by buyers, salesman or other experts may be, at times,
misleading. This is the reason why most of the manufactures favour to test their product or
service in a limited market as test – run before they launch their product nationwide.

Controlled experiments:

Controlled experiment refer to such exercise where some of the major determinants of
demand are manipulated to suit to the customers with different tastes and preferences, income
groups, and such others. It is further assumed that all other factors remain the same.

Judgmental approach:

When none of the above methods are directly related to the given product or service, the
management has no alternative other than using its own judgment. Even when the above
methods are used, the forecasting process is supplemented with the factor of judgment for the
following reasons

 Historical data for significantly long period is not available

 Turning point in terms of policies or procedures or causal factors cannot be precisely
determined
 Sale fluctuation are wide and significant
 The sophisticated statistical techniques such as regression and so on, may not cover
all.

Determinants of supply

Determinants of supply are the factors that can causes changes to, or affect, the supply of a
product in the market.

There are a number of factors that can affect, influence and determine supply, and they tend
to define the state, nature and trend of supply over time. They serve as the bedrocks that limit
what sellers make available in the market at a certain price and quantity.

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One of the principal factors that affect supply is the price of products in the market. Thus the
law of supply will say that producers offer more products for sale when its price increases.

Other major determinants of supply are changes in raw materials such as labor, other inputs
used in the production of a good or service, improvement in technology that reduces the cost
of producing the good and service, an improvement in weather (especially for agricultural
products), an increase in the number of suppliers, an expectation of lower price in the future
and many other factors to be discussed.

List of Determinants of Supply

Below is a list of the major factors which can affect the supply of products:
 1. Price
2. The number of sellers in the market
3. The price of resources used to produce the product
4. Tax rates and subsidies
5. Improvements in technology and automation
6. Expectations of the suppliers
7. The price of related products
8. The price of joint products made in the same process

Determinants of Supply Example

Assuming an agriculturist who ventures into crop farming works for seven years by manual
cropping techniques. For the period mentioned it is obvious that if all things remain equal, the
quantity produced and supplied to a market would remain the same.

If for a given year the agriculturist has an encounter with the government which could give
him support by providing machinery to practice mechanized farming, that implies effort will
be reduced, size of human labor reduced and if more lands are acquired, then on the eighth
year the man is likely to produce more than the formal quantity of goods for sale. This
suggests that supply is affected by a determinant factor – technology replacing manual
means.

Determinants of Supply Analysis

A good point to note about supply is that a “change in supply” refers to a shift in the entire
supply curve, as opposed to a movement along the curve, which could be referred to as
“change in the quantity supplied.” A seller will offer more units if the benefit of selling extra
output increases relative to the cost of producing it. And since the benefit of selling output in
a perfectly competitive market is a fixed market price that is beyond the seller‟s control, one
concern about the determinants of supply that influence supply naturally focuses on the cost
side of the calculation. The preceding instances suggest that the following factors, among
others, will affect the likelihood that a product will satisfy the cost-benefit test for a given
supplier.

Predicted Variations

Expectations about future price changes can affect how much sellers choose to offer in the
current market. Suppose, for example, that a soap producer expects the future price of its
product to be much higher than the current price because of the growing use of its resources.
The rational producer would then have an incentive to withhold some of his products from
the market at today‟s lower price, so as to have more available to sell at a higher price in the
future.

Price Variation

Variation in the prices of other goods and services that sellers might produce is another
significant factor. Prospectors, for example, will search for those precious metals for which
the surplus of benefits over costs is greatest. When the price of silver rises, many will stop
looking for gold and start looking for silver. Mining silver at the current price is now more
profitable than gold. This shift will affect the supply of gold in the market.

Technology Costs

One of the most important determinants of production cost is technology. Improvements in

technology make it possible to produce additional units of output at a lower cost. This shifts
each individual supply curve downward (or, equivalently, to the right) and hence shifts the
market supply curve downward as well. Over time, the introduction of more sophisticated
machinery has resulted in dramatic increases in the number of goods produced per hour of
effort expended. Every such development gives rise to a rightward shift in the market supply
curve. But how do we know technological change will reduce the cost of producing goods
and services? What if the new equipment is so expensive that producers who use it will have
higher costs than those who rely on earlier designs? If so, then rational producers simply
would not use the new equipment. The only technological changes that rational producers
will adopt are those that will reduce their cost of production.

Whereas technological change generally (although not always) leads to gradual shifts in
supply, changes in the prices of important inputs can give rise to large supply shifts literally
overnight. For example, the price of crude oil, which is the most important input in the
production of gasoline, often fluctuates sharply, and the resulting shifts in supply cause
gasoline prices to exhibit corresponding fluctuations.

Labor Rates

Similarly, when wage rates rise, the marginal cost of any business that employs labor also
rises, shifting supply curves to the left (or, equivalently, upward). When interest rates fall, the
opportunity cost of capital equipment also falls, causing supply to shift to the right.

The perfectly competitive firm faces a horizontal demand curve for its product, meaning that
it can sell any quantity it wishes at the market price. In the short run, the firm‟s goal is to
choose the level of output that maximizes its profits. It will accomplish this by choosing the
output level for which its marginal cost is equal to the market price of its product, provided
that price exceeds the average variable cost.

Therefore Supply is the quantity of commodity a seller is willing to sell at some price over a
certain period.

Factors that influence the supply of goods and services are termed determinant of supply.

Some of the determinants of supply are technology, the number of suppliers, expectation of
suppliers, feedback from consumers, increase in tax, high wage rate, etc.

The change in prices of other products which a producer can produce may cause a change in
supply for the product.

1. What are determinants of supply?

Some of the determinants of supply are technology, the number of suppliers, expectation of
suppliers, feedback from consumers, increase in tax, high wage rate, etc.

2. What are the factors affecting the supply of products?

Factors that influence the supply of goods and services are termed determinants of supply.
Some of the factors which can affect the supply of products are technology, the number of
suppliers, expectations of suppliers, feedback from consumers, increase in tax, high wage
rates etc.

3.What is the law of supply determinants?

The law of supply is the relationship between the quantity supplied and the factors which
affect it. The most important determinants of supply are technology, the number of suppliers,
expectation of suppliers, feedback from consumers, freeze in tax etc.

4. What is the most important determinant of supply?

Technology, the number of suppliers, expectation of suppliers, feedback from consumers etc.
are some of the factors which can affect the supply of products.

5. How does technology influence supply?

Innovations in technology have resulted in a dramatic increase in the number of goods being
produced per hour expended. Every such development gives rise to rightward shift in the
supply curve and higher equilibrium price.

Supply

supply is the number of goods and services that the suppliers are both willing and able to
supply at a particular price during a given period of time. To point out, the willingness to
supply should be backed by the ability to supply.

supply depends on a large number of factors. A change in any of these factors induces a
change in the supply. Of all these determinants of supply, the price is the most important one.

The Law of Supply

As mentioned in the introduction, a man of normal intellect always prefers to increase his
profit. Talking about the suppliers, when a supplier gets more price for his supply, the normal
behavior would be to increase the supply, in order to extract greater profits. This is the law of
supply.

Technically, the law of supply states that other factors remaining constant, the quantity of a
good produced and offered for sale would increase with an increase in its price and decrease
as the price falls.
Thus the law of supply acts as a bridge between the supply of a commodity and its price.
Further, we can say that there is a direct relationship between the supply of a commodity and
its price.

Again, this law is a result of common sense, as at higher prices a supplier would be looking at
greater profit margins and hence it acts as an incentive for increasing the supply.

This law is true for a majority of day-to-day occurrences of supply. However, there are some
exceptions to the law of supply. The supply of labor at high wages, for example, decreases
instead of increasing.

This is because an employer pays more only when you possess a skill which is not so
common. Thus, the supply depends upon the phenomenon under consideration and the extent
to which supply can be altered.

Further, the behavior of supply is also the slave of time, for obvious reasons. When talking
about short-run, we can play with supply only up to a certain extent, permissible under the
short time frame.

On the contrary, in the long run, changes on a large scale become a part of the equation
allowing us to alter the supply to a greater extent. Below, is the graphical representation of
the law of supply, the supply curve.

Example on Law of Supply

Q: Which of the following is/are not characteristic(s) of the law of supply

a. All factors other than price are constant

b. Establishes that there is a direct relationship between the price and the supply of a
commodity

c. There are no exceptions to the law of supply

d. Establishes that there is an inverse relationship between price and supply of a

commodity
Ans: Options „c‟ and „d‟ are not affirmations of the law of supply.

In the context of Business Economics and Financial Analysis (BEFA), non-conventional

sources of finance refer to funding options that are outside the traditional avenues of equity
and debt financing. These sources can be innovative and unconventional, and they can
provide alternative ways for businesses to raise capital or manage their finances. Here are
some non-conventional sources of finance in BEFA:

1. **Crowdfunding:** Crowdfunding platforms allow businesses to raise funds from a large

number of individual investors or backers. This method is often used for startups or projects
in exchange for rewards, equity, or debt.

2. **Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Lending:** P2P lending platforms connect borrowers directly with
individual lenders or investors. Businesses can obtain loans through these platforms, which
may offer competitive interest rates compared to traditional banks.

3. **Angel Investors:** Angel investors are individuals who provide capital to startups or
small businesses in exchange for equity ownership. They often offer not only financial
support but also mentorship and expertise.

4. **Venture Capital:** While venture capital is not entirely unconventional, it is a source

of equity financing that primarily targets high-growth startups with the potential for
substantial returns. Venture capitalists invest in exchange for equity and actively participate
in the company's growth.

5. **Revenue-Based Financing:** Some financing providers offer funds based on a

percentage of a company's future revenues. Businesses repay the funding provider with a
predetermined portion of their sales over time.

6. **Factoring and Invoice Financing:** Factoring companies purchase a business's

outstanding invoices at a discount, providing immediate cash flow. Invoice financing allows
a business to use its unpaid invoices as collateral for a loan.

7. **Asset-Based Lending:** This form of financing involves using a company's assets,

such as accounts receivable, inventory, or equipment, as collateral to secure a loan.

8. **Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Funding:** Some companies raise capital through

Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) or Security Token Offerings (STOs) by issuing digital tokens
or coins on blockchain platforms.

9. **Government Grants and Subsidies:** Government agencies often provide grants and
subsidies to businesses engaged in specific industries or projects, such as research and
development, renewable energy, or export promotion.

10. **Corporate Venturing:** Established companies may invest in or partner with startups
or innovative ventures through corporate venture capital arms or strategic partnerships.
11. **Strategic Alliances and Joint Ventures:** Businesses can form strategic alliances or
joint ventures with other companies to share resources, reduce costs, and access new
markets or technologies.

12. **Supplier Financing:** Negotiating extended payment terms with suppliers or utilizing
supply chain financing programs can free up working capital for a business.

13. **Sale and Leaseback:** Companies can sell their assets (e.g., real estate or equipment)
to a leasing company and then lease them back, freeing up cash while retaining access to the
assets.

Non-conventional sources of finance can offer flexibility and innovative solutions to meet
the specific financial needs and growth strategies of businesses. However, they may also
involve unique risks and terms, so careful consideration and due diligence are essential when
exploring these options in BEFA.

What are Sources of Funding?

Companies always seek sources of funding to grow their business. Funding, also called
financing, represents an act of contributing resources to finance a program, project, or need.
Funding can be initiated for either short-term or long-term purposes. The different sources of
funding include:

1. Retained earnings
2. Debt capital
3. Equity capital

The main sources of funding are retained earnings, debt capital, and equity capital.

Companies use retained earnings from business operations to expand or distribute dividends
to their shareholders.

Businesses raise funds by borrowing debt privately from a bank or by going public (issuing
debt securities).

Companies obtain equity funding by exchanging ownership rights for cash coming from
equity investors.
Retained Earnings

Businesses aim to maximize profits by selling a product or rendering service for a price
higher than what it costs them to produce the goods. It is the most primitive source of
funding for any company.

After generating profits, a company decides what to do with the earned capital and how to
allocate it efficiently. The retained earnings can be distributed to shareholders as dividends,
or the company can reduce the number of shares outstanding by initiating a stock repurchase
campaign.

Alternatively, the company can invest the money into a new project, say, building a new
factory, or partnering with other companies to create a joint venture.

Debt Capital

Companies obtain debt financing privately through bank loans. They can also source new
funds by issuing debt to the public.

In debt financing, the issuer (borrower) issues debt securities, such as corporate bonds or
promissory notes. Debt issues also include debentures, leases, and mortgages.

Companies that initiate debt issues are borrowers because they exchange securities for cash
needed to perform certain activities. The companies will be then repaying the debt (principal
and interest) according to the specified debt repayment schedule and contracts underlying
the issued debt securities.

The drawback of borrowing money through debt is that borrowers need to make interest
payments, as well as principal repayments, on time. Failure to do so may lead the borrower
to default or bankruptcy.

Equity Capital

Companies can raise funds from the public in exchange for a proportionate ownership stake
in the company in the form of shares issued to investors who become shareholders after
purchasing the shares.

Alternatively, private equity financing can be an option, provided there are entities or
individuals in the company‟s or directors‟ network ready to invest in a project or wherever
the money is needed for.

Compared to debt capital funding, equity funding does not require making interest
payments to a borrower.

However, one disadvantage of equity capital funding is sharing profits among all
shareholders in the long term. More importantly, shareholders dilute a company‟s ownership
control as long as it sells more shares.

Other Funding Sources

Funding sources also include private equity, venture capital, donations, grants, and subsidies
that do not have a direct requirement for return on investment (ROI), except for private
equity and venture capital. They are also called “crowdfunding” or “soft funding.”

Crowdfunding represents a process of raising funds to fulfill a certain project or undertake a

venture by obtaining small amounts of money from a large number of individuals. The
crowdfunding process usually takes place online

The 4 Types of Money are Commodity Money, Fiat Money, Fiduciary Money and
Commercial Bank Money.

Definition of Money: Money is defined as a generally accepted medium of exchange for goods and
services and is studied in the macroeconomics section of economics. Money serves as a medium of
exchange, enabling individuals and organisations to get the things they require to survive and

prosper. Before the invention of money, one method of exchange used by people was barter

Types of Money

Under macroeconomics, there are 4 major types of money, such as:

Commodity Money: Whenever a commodity is used for exchange, the commodity becomes
equal to money and is called commodity money. It is the simplest type of money used in a
barter system where valuable resources perform the functions of money.

Fiduciary Money: The value of money depends on the belief that it will be generally
accepted as a medium of exchange. Whenever a bank gives an assurance to the customers to
pay various types of money, and the customer sells the promise or transfers it to someone
else, it is called fiduciary money. Payment of fiduciary money is usually made in gold,
silver, or paper currency.

Fiat Money: The value of fiat money is derived from a government order. Fiat currency is a
type of money that has no intrinsic value and cannot be converted into a valuable resource.
The value of fiat money is determined by government orders which makes it a legal
instrument for all transaction purposes. Fiat money is the basis of all modern money
systems.

Commercial Bank Money: Commercial bank money is described as claims against financial
institutions that can be used to purchase goods or services. It represents that part of a
currency that is made up of loans generated by commercial banks. Commercial bank money
mainly consists of deposit balances that can be transferred either through paper orders or
electronically.