Axioms of Probability

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Axioms,Interpretations,and Properties of Probability

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/HW 6 EH D VDPSOH VSDFH $ SUREDELOLW\ IXQFWLRQ 3 IURP WKH VHW RI DOO HYHQWV LQ 6 WR
WKH VHW RI UHDO QXPEHUV VDWLV¿HV WKH IROORZLQJ WKUHH D[LRPV )RU DOO HYHQWV $ DQG %
LQ 6
  ≤ 3($) ≤ 
 3(∅) =  DQG 3(6) = 
 ,I $ DQG % DUH GLVMRLQW WKDW LV LI $ ∩ % = ∅) WKHQ WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI WKH XQLRQ
RI $ DQG % LV
3($ ∪ %) = 3( $) + 3(%).

Example &RQVLGHUWRVVLQJDWKXPEWDFNLQWKHDLU:KHQLWFRPHVWRUHVWRQWKHJURXQGHLWKHULWV
SRLQWZLOOEHXS WKHRXWFRPH8 RUGRZQ WKHRXWFRPH' 7KHVDPSOHVSDFHIRUWKLV
HYHQWLVWKHUHIRUHS^8'`7KHD[LRPVVSHFLI\3 S VRWKHSUREDELOLW\DVVLJQ
PHQWZLOOEHFRPSOHWHGE\GHWHUPLQLQJ3 8 DQG3 ' 6LQFH8DQG'DUHGLVMRLQWDQG
WKHLUXQLRQLVS WKHIRUHJRLQJSURSRVLWLRQLPSOLHVWKDW

 3 S 3 8  3 '


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WLQJSUHSUHVHQWDQ\IL[HGQXPEHUEHWZHHQDQG3 8 S3 ' SLVDQ
DVVLJQPHQWFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHD[LRPV■

7KH3UREDELOLW\RIWKH&RPSOHPHQWRIDQ(YHQW

6XSSRVHWKDW$LVDQHYHQWLQDVDPSOHVSDFH6'HGXFHWKDW3($F)=−3( $)
6ROXWLRQ 6SOD\LQJWKHUROHRIWKHXQLYHUVDOVHW8 
$ ∩ $F = ∅ DQG $ ∪ $F = 6.
7KXV 6 LV WKH GLVMRLQW XQLRQ RI $ DQG $F  DQG VR
3($ ∪ $F ) = 3($) + 3($F ) = 3(6) = .
6XEWUDFWLQJ 3($) IURP ERWK VLGHV JLYHV WKH UHVXOW WKDW 3($F ) =  − 3($)

3UREDELOLW\ RI WKH &RPSOHPHQW RI DQ (YHQW


,I $ LV DQ\ HYHQW LQ D VDPSOH VSDFH 6 WKHQ
3( $F ) =  − 3($).
3UREDELOLW\ RI D *HQHUDO 8QLRQ RI 7ZR (YHQWV
,I 6 LV DQ\ VDPSOH VSDFH DQG $ DQG % DUH DQ\ HYHQWV LQ 6 WKHQ
3( $ ∪ %) = 3($) + 3(%) − 3( $ ∩ %).

$ %

$± $ % $ % %± $ %

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Part 1: Show that A∪B⊆(A−(A∩B))∪(B−(A∩B))∪(A∩B) *LYHQ DQ\


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 [ ∈ $ DQG [ ∈ %
 [ ∈ $ DQG [ ∈
/ %
 [ ∈ % DQG [ ∈
/ $
 ,Q WKH ¿UVW FDVH [ ∈ $ ∩ % DQG VR [ ∈ ($ − ($ ∩ %)) ∪ (% − ($ ∩ %)) ∪ ($ ∩ %)
E\ GH¿QLWLRQ RI XQLRQ
 ,Q WKH VHFRQG FDVH [ ∈
/ $ ∩ % EHFDXVH [ ∈
/ %) DQG VR [ ∈ $ − ($ ∩ %) 7KHUHIRUH
[ ∈ ($ − ($ ∩ %)) ∪ (% − ( $ ∩ %)) ∪ ($ ∩ %) E\ GH¿QLWLRQ RI XQLRQ
 ,Q WKH WKLUG FDVH [ ∈
/ $ ∩ % EHFDXVH [ ∈
/ $  DQG KHQFH [ ∈ % − ($ ∩ %) 6R DJDLQ
[ ∈ ($ − ($ ∩ %)) ∪ (% − ($ ∩ %)) ∪ ($ ∩ %) E\ GH¿QLWLRQ RI XQLRQ
+HQFH LQ DOO WKUHH FDVHV [ ∈ ($ − ($ ∩ %)) ∪ (% − ($ ∩ %)) ∪ ($ ∩ %) ZKLFK FRP
SOHWHV WKH SURRI RI SDUW 
0RUHRYHU VLQFH WKH WKUHH FRQGLWLRQV DUH PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYH WKH WKUHH VHWV $ − ($ ∩ %)
% − ($ ∩ %) DQG $ ∩ % DUH PXWXDOO\ GLVMRLQW
Part 2: Show that ( A − ( A ∩ B)) ∪ (B − ( A ∩ B)) ∪ ( A ∩ B) ⊆ A ∪ B  6XSSRVH [
LV DQ\ HOHPHQW LQ ( $ − ( $ ∩ %)) ∪ (% − ($ ∩ %)) ∪ ($ ∩ %) %\ GH¿QLWLRQ RI XQLRQ
[ ∈ $ − ($ ∩ %) RU [ ∈ % − ($ ∩ %) RU [ ∈ $ ∩ %
 ,Q FDVH [ ∈ $ − ($ ∩ %) WKHQ [ ∈ $ DQG [ ∈
/ $ ∩ % E\ GH¿QLWLRQ RI VHW GLIIHUHQFH
,Q SDUWLFXODU [ ∈ $ DQG VR [ ∈ $ ∪ %
 ,Q FDVH [ ∈ % − ($ ∩ %) WKHQ [ ∈ % DQG [ ∈
/ $ ∩ % E\ GH¿QLWLRQ RI VHW GLIIHUHQFH
,Q SDUWLFXODU [ ∈ % DQG VR [ ∈ $ ∪ %
 ,Q FDVH [ ∈ $ ∩ % WKHQ LQ SDUWLFXODU [ ∈ $ DQG VR [ ∈ $ ∪ %
+HQFH LQ DOO WKUHH FDVHV [ ∈ $ ∪ % ZKLFK FRPSOHWHV WKH SURRI RI SDUW 

E 3($ ∪ %) = 3(($ − ($ ∩ %)) ∪ (% − ($ ∩ %)) ∪ ($ ∩ %)) E\ SDUW D


= 3($ − ($ ∩ %)) + 3(% − ($ ∩ %)) + 3($ ∩ %)
E\ H[HUFLVH  DW WKH HQG RI WKH VHFWLRQ DQG WKH IDFW WKDW
$ − ($ ∩ %), % − ($ ∩ %) DQG $ ∩ % DUH PXWXDOO\ GLVMRLQW
= 3($) − 3($ ∩ %) + 3(%) − 3($ ∩ %) + 3($ ∩ %)
E\ H[HUFLVH  DW WKH HQG RI WKH VHFWLRQ
EHFDXVH $ ∩ % ⊆ $ DQG $ ∩ % ⊆ %
= 3($) + 3(%) − 3($ ∩ %) E\ DOJHEUD ■
Example
3URYHWKDWLI6LVDQ\VDPSOHVSDFHDQG8 DQG9 DUHHYHQWV LQ 6 ZLWK 8 ⊆ 9  WKHQ 3(8 ) ≤ 3(9 )

Example
3URYHWKDWLI6LVDQ\VDPSOHVSDFHDQG8DQG9DUHDQ\HYHQWVLQ6 WKHQ  3(9−8 )=3(9)−3(8∩9)

Example
8VHWKHD[LRPVIRUSUREDELOLW\DQGPDWKHPDWLFDOLQGXFWLRQWRSURYHWKDWIRUDOOLQWHJHUVQ≥LI
$,$,$, . . . ,  $QDUHDQ\PXWXDOO\GLVMRLQWHYHQWVLQDVDPSOHVSDFH6 WKHQ


Q
3( $ ∪ $ ∪ $ ∪ · · · ∪ $Q ) = 3($N ).
N=
7KHRUHP7KH,QFOXVLRQ([FOXVLRQ5XOHIRU7ZRRU7KUHH6HWV

,I$,%DQG&DUHDQ\ILQLWHVHWVWKHQ

1 ($ ∪ %) = 1 ($) + 1 (%) − 1 ($ ∩ %)
DQG
1 ($ ∪ % ∪ &) = 1 ($) + 1 (%) + 1 (&) − 1 ($ ∩ %) − 1 ($ ∩ &)
−1 (% ∩ &) + 1 ($ ∩ % ∩ &).

ExampleCountingtheNumberofElementsinanIntersection
A professor in a discrete mathematics class passes out a form asking students to check
all the mathematics and computer science courses they have recently taken. The finding
is that out of a total of 50 students in the class,
30 took precalculus; 16 took both precalculus and Java;
18 took calculus; 8 took both calculus and Java;
26 took Java; 47 took at least one of the three courses.
9 took both precalculus and calculus;
Note that when we write “30 students took precalculus,” we mean that the total num-
ber of students who took precalculus is 30, and we allow for the possibility that some of
these students may have taken one or both of the other courses. If we want to say that
30 students took precalculus only (and not either of the other courses), we will say so
explicitly.
a. How many students did not take any of the three courses?
b. How many students took all three courses?
c. How many students took precalculus and calculus but not Java? How many students
took precalculus but neither calculus nor Java?
For any three events A, B, and C,
P(A  B  C)  P(A)  P(B)  P(C)  P(A  B)  P(A  C)
 P(B  C)  P(A  B  C)

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