Journal of Environmental Management 345 (2023) 118870

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Journal of Environmental Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jenvman

Research article

Exploring the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of carbon emissions and air

pollution in Chinese cities
Zaenhaer Duman a, b, Xianqiang Mao a, b, *, Bofeng Cai c, **, Qingyong Zhang a, b,
Yongpeng Chen a, b, Yubing Gao a, b, Zhi Guo a, b
a
School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, PR China
b
Center for Global Environmental Policy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, PR China
c
Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing, 100012, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Handling Editor: Jason Michael Evans Based on data from 335 cities in China, this study employs the standard deviation ellipse method to portray
unbalanced and differential spatiotemporal evolution patterns of environmental emissions and socioeconomic
Keywords: elements. A logarithmic mean Divisia index analysis and in-depth discussion are carried out to disclose the main
Carbon emissions driving factors and underlying reasons for the differences. Decoupling trends exist among carbon emissions, gross
Air pollution
domestic product (GDP) and population in terms of their gravity center migrations. The standard deviation el­
Standard deviation ellipse
lipse direction of carbon emissions gradually changed from ‘northeast‒southwest’ to ‘northwest‒southeast’, and
Logarithmic mean Divisia index
City level the standard deviation ellipse areas of carbon emissions and air pollution continuously expanded over time; at
the same time, that of GDP contracted. Economic growth has always been the main driver of carbon emissions
and air pollution nationally, but its role has weakened. Moreover, decreases in the energy intensity and carbon
and pollution intensities are the main factors contributing to emissions reductions. Differentiated spatiotemporal
economic structure evolution, regional heterogeneities in the energy intensity and efficiency, and cross-region
power energy transmissions are identified as the underlying reasons for the unbalanced spatiotemporal pat­
terns of the environmental emissions and socioeconomic elements. Based on these findings, policy suggestions
can be made to address the imbalances and promote carbon mitigation, air quality improvement and high-quality
social-economic development at the city level.

1. Introduction
Fossil energy consumption not only constitutes the main source of
carbon emissions (Wang et al., 2017) but also leads to air pollution,
which deeply troubles the world and poses a great threat to human
health (Burkart et al., 2022). At present, the challenge of air pollution
prevention and combating climate change remains formidable.
As a major carbon emitter China plays a crucial role in carbon
reduction (Shan et al., 2016). To fulfill its carbon-reduction re­
sponsibilities, China has committed to expanding its Nationally Deter­
mined Contribution and achieving carbon emissions peak and neutrality
by 2030 and 2060, respectively (The State Council of the People’s Re­
public of China, 2020). Moreover, China has made considerable efforts
to explore co-control strategies for carbon and air pollution reductions
(Yang et al., 2021). Studies have verified that the co-control strategy
achieves favorable pollution reduction and health benefits and offers
significant cost-effectiveness advantages (Liu et al., 2014; Mao et al.,
2014; Zeng et al., 2017). However, being the world’s biggest developing
country with significant variations in physical topography, economic
development level, and demographic conditions (Feng et al., 2012),
China still faces complicated and varying situations (Qian et al., 2021).
To formulate more effective strategies for carbon emissions and air
pollution reductions, it is important to clarify their evolutionary
spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors.
Studies on the spatiotemporal patterns of carbon emissions and air
pollution have covered multiple scales at the global, national, provin­
cial, and urban levels (Liang et al., 2019; Qin et al., 2019; Wang et al.,
2020; Zhao et al., 2021). In terms of research methods, exploratory
spatial data analysis, gravity models, and the standard deviation ellipse
(SDE) method have been used (Han et al., 2021; Kim and Dall’erba,

* Corresponding author. School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, PR China.
** Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: maoxq@bnu.edu.cn (X. Mao), caibf@caep.org.cn (B. Cai).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118870
Received 23 May 2023; Received in revised form 4 August 2023; Accepted 26 August 2023
Available online 6 September 2023
0301-4797/© 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Z. Duman et al. Journal of Environmental Management 345 (2023) 118870

2014; Song et al., 2019). Among them, SDE can better describe the (1) Gravity center:
distribution range and migration trend of the concerned elements and
∑
n ∑
n
has been widely used at the national and provincial levels. However, wi xi wi yi
studies using the SDE approach to describe distribution of carbon X = i=1
∑n , Y = i=1
∑n (3)
emissions at the city level have been limited, and most existing studies wi wi
have been confined to the regional or provincial levels (Chen et al.,
i=1 i=1

2021; Yang et al., 2020). Moreover, there is a lack of studies that

included carbon emissions and air pollution in the same framework to
analyze and compare their gravity center migration routes for all cities (2) Coordinate deviations:
either in China or other countries.
Identifying the driving-force mechanisms of carbon emissions and air xi = xi − X, ̃
̃ yi = yi − Y (4)
pollution is important for understanding the courses of carbon and
pollution reductions (Fan and Lei, 2017). Current research in this regard
has varied from the country to the city scale (Chang et al., 2019; Feng
et al., 2019; Ma et al., 2019; Moutinho et al., 2018). Although a wealth (3) Azimuth:
of research has studied the drivers at these two issues separately, there is ( ) √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
( n )2
∑
n ∑
n ∑ 2 2 ∑ n ∑ n
still a paucity of literature analyzing and comparing their spatiotem­ 2 2
wi ̃xi − 2
yi
wi ̃ 2
+ wi ̃ xi − wi 2̃ yi 2 + 4 wi 2̃ xĩyi
porally differentiated drivers at the all-city level. tan θ =
i=1 i=1 i=1 i=1 i=1

This study is aimed at filling the aforementioned research gaps by ∑

n
2 wi 2̃xĩyi
using the carbon emissions and air pollution (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2 i=1

and O3) data of 335 cities in China and carrying out an analysis based on (5)
the framework of “Spatiotemporal patterns analysis → SDE analysis →
Driving factors analysis”. In particular, the previously neglected north­
west cities of China are included in this study to avoid distortion or
misrepresentation of the migration of the carbon emissions gravity (4) Standard deviations of the long axis and short axis:
center. The spatial corelationships among the gravity centers of carbon √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
√∑
√ n (w ̃x cos θ − w ̃
emissions, air pollution, GDP and population are examined. The driving
2
√ i i i yi sin θ)
√i=1
factors of carbon emissions and air pollution are decomposed within the δx = √ ∑ n (6)
√
same framework. wi 2
i=1

2. Methods and data √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅

√∑
√ n (w ̃ yi cos θ)2
√ i xi sin θ − wĩ
√i=1
2.1. Hot spot analysis δy = √ (7)
√ ∑ n
wi 2
Hot spot analysis can help to measure the spatial dependence of a i=1

point within a specific range with other points in the study area, and to
identify high-value and low-value areas in the vast territory (Getis and
Ord, 1992). This study uses the hotspot analysis tool in ArcGIS 10.2 to
(5) Area of the SDE:
identify high-value and low-value areas of carbon emissions and air
pollution in China. The calculation formulas used are expressed as S = π δx δy (8)
follows:
where n represents the number of cities; (xi, yi) represents the latitude
∑
n ∑
n
Wij Xi Xj and longitude of each city; wi represents the carbon emissions or con­
Gi = ∑
i=1 j=1
n ∑
n (1) centration of air pollutants in city i; (X, Y) represents the coordinates of
Xi Xj the weighted average center of gravity; ̃ xi and ̃yi are the coordinate
i=1 j=1
deviations of each city to the mean center of gravity; θ is the azimuth of
the ellipse; δx and δy represent the standard deviations of the long axis
Gi − E(Gi )
Z(Gi ) = √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ (2) and short axis of the ellipse; and S represents the area of the ellipse,
Var(Gi )
respectively.
The SDE gravity centers and their changing trajectories represent the
where Wij is the spatial weight matrix, Xi and Xj are the carbon emissions
relative location of geographically dispersed elements and the spatial
or concentrations of air pollutants of regions i and j, and E(Gi) and Var
development directions of those elements in space. The long axis rep­
(Gi) are the mathematical expectation and coefficient of variation of Gi,
resents the element’s distribution direction, while the short axis repre­
respectively.
sents its distribution range. The azimuth angle reflects the predominant
distribution direction of an element (Bai et al., 2021).
2.2. Standard deviation ellipse The variation in the SDE area reveals the spatial contraction or
expansion trend of the elements. The spatial distribution ellipse of
Standard deviation ellipse (SDE) is widely applied in numerous dis­ geographic elements tends to expand if the geographic elements outside
ciplines for measuring the spatial statistical distribution features of the SDE grow faster than those inside the ellipse, and vice versa. As is
geographical elements (Lefever, 1926), including economics, demog­ done in most studies, this study selected the system default of the
raphy, climate change, health, and ecology (Johnson and Wilson, 2009; “Ellipse_Size” option, indicating that 68% of the total number of the
Ma et al., 2022; Rogerson, 2021; Wang et al., 2022). Taking the gravity elements in question were included. In this study, the variations in the
center, long axis, short axis, and azimuth of a spatial distribution ellipse ellipse area were considered for carbon emissions, air pollution, GDP
as the basic parameters, the SDE method depicts the spatial distribution and population. For carbon emissions, GDP, and population, 2005 was
characteristics of the research object. This SDE analysis was performed taken as the base year (i.e., the area in 2005 was set equal to 1), and for
in ArcGIS 10.2 with the following calculation formulas:

2
Z. Duman et al.
air pollutants, 2015 was taken as the base year.
In addition, this study constructed a spatial coupling analysis model
to measure the spatial coupling degree between two elements in two
dimensions, namely, the distance and direction. Specifically, the dis­
tance coupling index (DIS) is defined as the inverse of the distance be­
tween the two elements’ gravity centers, and the larger this value is, the
higher the coupling degree is. The directional coupling index (DIR) is
defined as the cosine value of the vector angle β between the migration
directions of two elements’ gravity centers in two periods, and a larger
DIR indicates higher consistency of their migration directions (Gao
et al., 2018). The calculation formulas used are expressed as follows:
(6) Distance coupling index:
1 CT1 − CT0
DIS = √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
R × (xA − xB )2 + (yA − yB )2
(7) Direction coupling index:
( 2 ) ( ) [( 2
ΔxA + Δy2A + Δx2B + Δy2B − ΔxA − Δy2A + Δx2B − Δy2B
DIR = cos β = √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
2 (Δx2A + Δy2A ) + (Δx2B + Δy2B )
ΔxA ΔxB + ΔyA ΔyB
= √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
̅ from the China Air Quality Online Monitoring and Analysis Platform (htt
(Δx2A + Δy2A )(Δx2B + Δy2B )
where (xA, yA) and (xB, yB) represent the coordinates of the gravity
centers of different elements A and B; Δx and Δy represent the amounts
of change in the longitude and latitude of the gravity center from the
previous time period, respectively; and R represents the conversion rate
between geographic and plane projection coordinates.
2.3. LMDI model
Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and index decomposition
analysis (IDA) are two methods commonly used in analyses of the
driving factors of carbon emissions (Liu et al., 2021). As an IDA method,
the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) has the advantages of
generating no residual values during the decomposition process,
allowing zeros in the data (Ang et al., 1998), and avoiding potential
multicollinearity and endogeneity problems in regression analyses
(Shan et al., 2022). Thus, this study employed LMDI to explore the
drivers of carbon emissions and air pollution. The calculation formula is
expressed as follows:
G E C
C=P × × × = Cp × Cgdp × Ce × Ct
P G E
where C represents the carbon emissions or concentration of air pol­
lutants, G represents GDP, P represents population, and E represents
energy consumption; Cp = P denotes the population scale effect, Cgdp =
G/P denotes the economic growth effect, Ce = E/G denotes the energy
intensity (energy consumption per unit economic output), and Ct = C/E
denotes the carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of energy con­
sumption) or pollution intensity (pollution per unit of energy
consumption).
Further decomposition can be carried out using the additive
decomposition method (Ang, 2004), and the formula used to calculate
the change in carbon emissions or concentration of air pollutants from
period T0 to T1 is expressed as follows:
ΔC = CT1 − CT0 = ΔCp + ΔCgdp + ΔCe + ΔCt
The contribution of each driving factor is shown in Equations (13)–
(16); ω in Equation (17) represents the logarithmic average weight.
Journal of Environmental Management 345 (2023) 118870
( )
CpT1
ΔCp = ω × ln (13)
CpT0
( T )
Cgdp
1
ΔCgdp = ω × ln T0 (14)
Cgdp
( T1 )
C
ΔCe = ω × ln eT0 (15)
Ce
( T1 )
Ct
ΔCt = ω × ln (16)
CtT0
(9) ω= (17)
ln CT1 − ln CT0
2.4. Data sources
The city-level carbon emissions, population, and GDP data in China
) ( )] from 2005 to 2020 used in this study were obtained from the China City
̅ Greenhouse Gas Working Group (CCG, 2021). The city-level air pollu­
tion data in China from 2015 to 2020 used in this study were obtained
ps://www.aqistudy.cn/historydata/). It was difficult to obtain energy
(10) consumption data at the city level. Therefore, annual electricity con­
sumption data collected from the China City Statistical Yearbook (Urban
Socio-Economic Survey Department of the National Bureau of Statistics,
2006–2021) were used to measure urban energy consumption. Since the
China City Statistical Yearbook includes only 287 prefecture-level cities,
this study estimated the missing electricity consumption data for the
remaining 48 cities by dividing rural electricity consumption data by the
proportion of the primary industry (mainly agriculture) product to GDP
(see Text S1 and Fig. S1).
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Descriptive spatiotemporal analysis
(1) Carbon emissions and air pollution time series
From 2005 to 2020, China’s carbon emission variations at the city
level went through three stages: rapid growth (2005–2010), slow
growth (2010–2015), and stable growth (2015–2020), with average
annual growth rates of 7.96%, 4.47%, and 0.80%, respectively. From
Fig. 1, it can be found that carbon emissions growth in China saw a
(11) slowed trend, especially during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and it is
likely due to China’s stringent pollution-control and energy-saving
measures (Huang and Yi, 2023; Huang and Tian, 2023). Moreover,
from 2015 to 2020, China achieved great success in air pollution control.
Compared to 2015, the average concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO,
and NO2 in 2020 decreased by 32.81%, 31.34%, 59.52%, 32.36%, and
16.08%, respectively, although the concentration of O3 increased by
7.73%.
(2) Spatiotemporal variation in carbon emissions and air pollution
The spatial distributions of carbon emissions and air pollution are
generally similar, with decreasing trends from east to west and the main
areas of high carbon emissions and high pollution clustered in northern
and central cities (Fig. 2 and Fig. S2). Notably, carbon emissions in
(12)
Northwest and Northeast China showed rapid growth from 2010 to
2020. The number of cities that achieved carbon emission reductions
increased in 3 periods. From 2005 to 2010, only 50 cities achieved
carbon emission reductions; this number reached 85 from 2010 to 2015
and then increased significantly to 138 from 2015 to 2020. After China
3
Z. Duman et al.
Fig. 1. Carbon emissions (2005–2020) and concentration of air pollutants (2015–2020) in China.
took massive action to control air pollution, remarkable carbon miti­
gation was achieved as a co-benefit (Zhang et al., 2022).
Hotspot analysis found that the spatial clustering characteristics of
carbon emissions and air pollution coincide with each other. Northern
and Central cities are characterized as High-High clusters, while the
cities in the South and Southwest regions are characterized as Low-Low
agglomerations. A High-High agglomeration containing 86 cities can be
identified as an overlapping region of high carbon emissions and high air
pollution distributions (Fig. S3).
These 86 cities accounted for 41% of the CO2 emissions of all 335
cities, while their average concentrations (over the study period) of
PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, NO2 and O3 were 10.98%, 11.33%, 50.68%,
7.60%, 14.52% and 4.40% higher than the average concentrations of
other cities, respectively. The High-High agglomeration of carbon
emissions and air pollution in this region can be attributed to extensive
economic development, highly concentrated populations, heavy indus­
trial structures, and most importantly, an overdependence on coal
consumption. Although the energy consumption mix in these cities has
improved in recent years, the shares of coal consumption in Hebei,
Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia still exceeded 50% in 2019 (Energy Statis­
tics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, 2020).
3.2. Spatiotemporal analysis with the standard deviation ellipse
3.2.1. Gravity center distribution and migration
(1) Gravity center distribution
The geographic center of China is located in Lanzhou, Gansu Prov­
ince, while the average gravity centers of carbon emissions, air pollu­
tion, GDP and population deviate from the geographic center and were
located in Henan Province during the study period (Fig. S4). Specif­
ically, the geographic center (103.37◦ E, 36.65◦ N) is located in the far
west, while the average gravity center of GDP (115.04◦ E, 32.77◦ N) and
the average (during the study period) gravity center of population
(113.49◦ E, 32.66◦ N) were located in the far southeast, and the average
gravity center of carbon emissions (114.32◦ E, 34.69◦ N) and those of air
pollutants (111.42–112.39◦ E, 33.67–34.68◦ N) were located in between.
The distance of the gravity center of each element to the geographic
center varied from 1367 to 925 km.
All the gravity centers were located to southeast relative to the
geographic center, reflecting the fact that most of the economic-social
activities and emissions are distributed to the southeast. The gravity
centers of carbon emissions and air pollution departed from those of
GDP and population and were located towards the northwest. This
indicated spatial differentiation in the industrial and energy structures
4
Journal of Environmental Management 345 (2023) 118870
between the southeast and northwest parts of the territory, leading to
unbalanced spatial distributions of social-economic elements and
emissions.
(2) Gravity center migration path
Fig. 3 shows the migration paths of the element gravity centers and
their spatial coincidence. The gravity center of carbon emissions
generally migrated northwestward during the 2005–2020 period
(113.86◦ –114.58◦ E, 34.45◦ –34.96◦ N) and migrated approximately 78
km. Specifically, the migration of the gravity center of carbon emissions
can be divided into four stages: (1) it hovered over Kaifeng
(114.51–114.58◦ E, 34.45–34.51◦ N) from 2005 to 2010; (2) from 2010
to 2013, it moved rapidly northwestward, coinciding with the rapid
economic development that occurred after China joined the WTO and
the energy-intensive industrialization in Northwest China, especially in
Inner Mongolia; (3) it moved southwestward from 2013 to 2017 to
Zhengzhou (114.15◦ E, 34.70◦ N), largely associated with the rapid
development occurring in Southwest China (including in Chongqing,
Sichuan and Guizhou provinces) and the mounting carbon emissions;
and (4) from 2017 to 2020, it was directed again northwestward and
moved to Xinxiang (113.95◦ E, 34.96◦ N) in 2020, closely related to the
accelerated development of Xinjiang and Shaanxi, where heavy in­
dustries and fossil energy production dominated.
Moreover, Fig. 3 shows general decoupling tendencies between the
carbon emissions gravity center migration and those of GDP and pop­
ulation. When the gravity center of carbon emissions generally moved
northwestward, the gravity centers of GDP and population continuously
migrated southward. After 2017, these divergence tendencies even
strengthened. Fig. 4 A-B presents the changes in the coupling degrees of
the gravity center migrations between carbon emissions and GDP and
between carbon emissions and population. The DIS values remained
positive, indicating the continuous spatial departure of the gravity
centers, and the DIR values became positive and negative, showing
back-and-forth changes in the migration directions.
Fig. 3 also shows that SO2 and NO2 shared similar gravity center
migration paths with that of carbon emissions from 2015 to 2020,
whereas no such strong similarity was found for other pollutants. Fig. 4
C–F further explore the differences in the degree of spatial coincidence
between the gravity center migration paths of carbon emissions and air
pollutants. Among them, the higher coupling degrees between carbon
emissions and SO2 and between carbon emissions and NO2 were
reconfirmed; CO and O3 had lower coupling degrees with carbon
emissions; and PM2.5 and PM10 had no obvious coincidence with carbon
emissions. At the same time, the changes in the gravity center migration
directions of air pollutants were found to lag behind those of carbon
 Z. Duman et al.
5

Journal of Environmental Management 345 (2023) 118870

Fig. 2. Spatiotemporal distribution patterns of carbon emissions at the all-city level in China. The first row presents the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon emissions, and the second row presents the reductions in
carbon emissions across different time periods.
Z. Duman et al.
Fig. 3. The gravity center migration paths of carbon emissions, GDP, population and air pollution.
emissions. For example, the gravity center of carbon emissions migrated
northwestward in 2017, while the gravity centers of SO2, NO2 and PM2.5
started to migrate northwestward in 2018.
3.2.2. Ellipse azimuth and area variation
To illustrate the distributional direction changes of the SDE for each
element (Fig. S5), the Hu Huanyong line, a well-known geographical
line connecting Heihe and Tengchong (Chen et al., 2016; Hu, 1935) is
referred to. This line is a symbol of the unbalanced spatial distributions
of the social economic elements and territory of China, and can also help
explain the unbalanced spatiotemporal distributions of carbon emissions
and air pollution.
From Fig. S5, it can be seen that the SDE directions (or Azimuth) for
GDP, population and most air pollutants generally show “northeast‒
southwest” distributions, consistent with the Hu Huanyong line. The
direction of the SDE of carbon emissions gradually changed from
“northeast‒southwest” to “northwest‒southeast”, caused by the high
growth rate of carbon emissions in the northwest regions. It can also be
found that the main distribution areas of GDP and population are
located to the southeast side of the Hu Huanyong line, whereas those of
6
Journal of Environmental Management 345 (2023) 118870
carbon emissions and air pollution surpassed the line to the northwest to
varying degrees.
As for SDE areas, that of carbon emission remained relatively stable
from 2005 to 2010 and then expanded from 2011 to 2020 (increased by
19.43% in 2020 compared to 2005); those of air pollution showed yearly
expansions, except that of O3 in recent years (Fig. S6). The changes in
the SDE areas of PM2.5 and PM10 presented “N”-shaped temporal paths;
that of SO2 showed a yearly expansion of 17.30% from 2015 to 2020;
that of CO expanded by 4.66% from 2015 to 2020 in a fluctuating
manner; and that of NO2 expanded by 1.83% in 2020 compared to 2015.
For GDP, the SDE area experienced a small expansion from 2005 to
2010, followed by a gradual contraction from 2011 to 2020, and this
trend became more obvious after 2015.
The obvious departure of the SDE area variation time series between
the emissions and GDP reiterates the unbalance of the spatiotemporal
distribution of emissions and economic development. The spatial dis­
tributions of carbon emissions and air pollution tended to expand in
general during the study period, whereas the GDP agglomeration
strengthened since 2010. This phenomenon can be largely attributed to
the tremendous development of high-emission energy and heavy
Z. Duman et al.
Fig. 4. Distance and direction coupling index values of the gravity centers of carbon emissions, GDP, population and air pollution. (A. DIS of CO2 and GDP; B. DIR of
CO2 and GDP; C. DIS of CO2 and air pollution; D. DIR for CO2 and air pollution; E. Box line diagram of the DIS of CO2 and air pollution; and F. Box line diagram of the
DIR of CO2 and air pollution).
chemical industries in Northwest China, especially in Inner Mongolia
and Xinjiang Provinces. During the study period, southeast China
benefited from the energy production and transmission of the northwest
region to fuel relatively clean economic growth. If this situation con­
tinues, it will exacerbate the inequity between regions regarding eco­
nomic development and carbon and pollution emissions.
3.3. Driving factor analysis
Although the total carbon emissions continued to grow throughout
the study period, the growth rate was noticeably reduced. The in­
crements of carbon emissions were 2892.73 Mt, 1762.57 Mt, and
327.80 Mt during the 2005–2010, 2010–2015, and 2015–2020 periods,
respectively. Fig. 5A reports the total carbon emissions decomposition
results of 335 cities in China in these three periods.
Economic development and population growth were found to be the
main factors driving the growth of carbon emissions. Among them,
although the impact decreased, economic growth was the most critical
factor driving the growth of carbon emissions. During the 2005–2010,
2010–2015, and 2015–2020 periods, the carbon emissions driven by
economic growth were 5835.51 Mt, 4735.38 Mt, and 3137.13 Mt,
respectively. The role of population growth was relatively limited,
contributing to carbon emission growth by 203.48 Mt, 355.45 Mt, and
278.71 Mt in 2005–2010, 2010–2015, and 2015–2020, respectively.
In addition, it is worth noting that the contribution of the energy
intensity to carbon emissions was substantial from 2005 to 2015.
Moreover, the decrease in the carbon intensity became the most
important driver of reduced carbon emissions growth during
2015–2020. Combining the effects of the energy intensity and carbon
intensity on carbon emissions, it can be inferred that the transition in
China’s energy mix and improvement in energy efficiency as well as the
improvements in the economic structure and production efficiency
7
Journal of Environmental Management 345 (2023) 118870
effectively curbed the rapid growth of carbon emissions. Nationwide,
the share of coal consumption in total energy consumption decreased
from 73.26% in 2005 to 55.82% in 2020, and the share of solar, nuclear,
hydro, wind, and other renewable energy sources increased from 6.21%
in 2005 to 16.44% in 2020 (BP Statistical Review of World Energy,
2022). Meanwhile, the energy consumption per GDP (tons of standard
coal per 10,000 Yuan) decreased from 0.14 in 2005 to 0.05 in 2020
(calculated according to the China Statistical Yearbook).
From Fig. 5B, it can be found that the impacts of all driving factors on
different air pollutants were relatively similar, with the population scale
and energy intensity being the two weak drivers and economic growth
being the strong driver of air pollution. The pollution intensity was the
main driver of air pollutant concentration reductions.
3.4. Discussion
The obvious unbalanced spatiotemporal distributions of emissions
and GDP deserves more discussion, and several reasons for this unbal­
ance can be raised.
First, the differentiated spatiotemporal economic structure evolution
should not be ignored. Significant growth occurred in the high energy
consumption and heavy chemical industry in the northwest region
during the study period, whereas southern China saw an increase in the
tertiary industry. Accordingly, the gravity center of carbon emissions
from the industrial sector migrated westward, while that of the service
sector migrated southward. In 2020, the SDE area of carbon emissions in
the industrial sector almost doubled compared to 2005, while that of the
service sector contracted (see Fig. S7).
Second, the regional heterogeneities in energy intensity and effi­
ciency are important (see Fig. S8). Although all regions presented GDP-
driven carbon growth, only in Northwest, Northeast and North China
was the energy intensity found to drive up carbon emissions. Especially
Z. Duman et al.
Fig. 5. Driving factor decomposition results of carbon emissions and air pollutants at the all city level in China. Note: Cp = P denotes the population scale effect, Cgdp
= G/P denotes the economic growth effect, Ce = E/G denotes the energy intensity effect, and Ct = C/E denotes the carbon intensity effect.
in the Northwest region, the energy intensity contributed largely to the
growth of carbon emissions. Improving the energy efficiency here is
critical if we expect a decrease in carbon emissions in the region.
Finally, cross-region power energy transmissions could be another
crucial reason for the observed imbalance. China’s fossil energy resource
distribution is characterized by a strong spatial imbalance, with energy
production distributed mainly in the west, while consumption is
concentrated mainly in the densely populated eastern and central re­
gions. Cross-region power transmission from west to east has long been
the major means for resolving this contradiction (Fig. S9). There are
three passageways for power transmission from west to east; among
them, the north passageway is dominated by thermal power, while the
middle and south passages rely mainly on hydropower (Zeng et al.,
2013). When the western regions transmit large amounts of coal-fired
power electricity to the eastern region to support the rapid economic
development in the eastern regions, an imbalance in the spatiotemporal
distributions of carbon emissions, among other emissions, and economic
development inevitably occurs.
Although the hot spot analysis, SDE analysis and LMDI analysis used
in this study are helpful to characterize the spatial distribution and
temporal evolution trend of elements from multidimensional perspec­
tives, however, these methods could not support quantitative causal
analysis and draw more specific research findings. The causal analysis to
the unbalanced spatiotemporal distributions of emissions and GDP de­
serves closer observation in the next step research.
8
Journal of Environmental Management 345 (2023) 118870
4. Conclusion and policy implications
Based on the SDE analyses of carbon emissions, air pollution and
socioeconomic elements, this study portrayed an unbalanced and dif­
ferential spatiotemporal pattern for environmental emissions and so­
cioeconomic elements. An LMDI analysis and in-depth discussion were
carried out to disclose the main driving factors and underlying reasons
for this imbalance. The main findings are summarized as follows.
The hotspot areas of carbon emissions and air pollution greatly
overlapped, covering 86 cities and contributing more than 41% of the
total carbon emissions; in addition, the average concentration of air
pollutants was significantly higher in these 86 cities than in the other
cities in China.
Generally, decoupling trends exist between CO2 and GDP and be­
tween CO2 and population in terms of their gravity center migration
results. At the same time, spatial coincidence is observed among the
gravity center migrations of CO2, NO2 and SO2.
The SDE directions obtained for CO2, GDP, population and most air
pollutants generally showed “northeast‒southwest” distributions. The
direction of the SDE of CO2 gradually changed from “northeast‒south­
west” to “northwest‒southeast”. Furthermore, the SDE areas of CO2 and
air pollution continued to expand over time, whereas that of GDP
contracted.
Economic growth has always been the main driver of CO2 and air
pollution nationally, but its role is weakening. However, the effects of
Z. Duman et al.
population on CO2 and air pollution are not obvious. Moreover, de­
creases in the energy, carbon and pollution intensities were the main
factors contributing to the reductions in CO2 and air pollution.
Differentiated spatiotemporal economic structure evolution,
regional heterogeneities in the energy intensity and efficiency, and
cross-region power energy transmission were identified as the under­
lying reasons causing the unbalanced spatiotemporal pattern between
environmental emissions and socioeconomic elements.
Based on these results, policies need to be raised to address the un­
balanced spatiotemporal pattern of environmental emissions and so­
cioeconomic development to promote carbon mitigation and improve
the air quality at the city level.
Measures need to be taken to prevent the less-developed north­
western regions from becoming pollution havens. Energy mix transitions
are the key to reducing the carbon intensity, and the vast renewable
energy potential needs to be exploited to replace the dominant fossil fuel
production and power energy exports, through providing financial and
pricing policy support for the wind and photovoltaic power generation.
It is essential to provide more financial support to help these areas
achieve green development by upgrading their industrial structures, e.
g., by expanding the weight of the low-carbon tertiary sector in the
economy, increasing the energy efficiency and reducing the energy in­
tensity. More favorite policies need to be oriented to the enterprises in
northwestern regions by reducing or exempting taxes to encourage
entrepreneurial innovation.
At the same time, it is important to take advantage of the symbiosis
between CO2 and air pollution, and co-control strategies should be
prioritized in hotspot areas to achieve the effect of synergistic carbon-
traditional air pollution management. Such systematic low-carbon
economic and energy transition strategies must be undertaken at the
city level in the near future to emphasize fulfilling carbon emissions and
traditional pollution co-reduction goals alongside higher-quality eco­
nomic development.
Credit author statement
Zaenhaer Duman: Methodology, Formal Analysis, Visualization,
Writing-Original Draft. Xianqiang Mao: Conceptualization, Supervision,
Methodology, Writing-Review & Editing. Bofeng Cai: Data Curation,
Writing-Review & Editing, Methodology. Qingyong Zhang: Methodol­
ogy, Software. Yongpeng Chen: Data Curation, Writing-Review. Yubing
Gao and Zhi Guo: Data Curation.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the science and technology project of the
Global Energy Interconnection Group Co., Ltd. (SGTYHT/21-JS-223)
(contract No. SGGEIG00JYJS2200059).
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118870.
9
Journal of Environmental Management 345 (2023) 118870
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