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Bayesian Analysis with Excel and R
Conrad G. Carlberg
Contents at a Glance

Preface
Bayesian Analysis and R: An Overview
Generating Posterior Distributions with the Binomial Distribution
Understanding the Beta Distribution
Grid Approximation and the Beta Distribution
Grid Approximation with Multiple Parameters
Regression Using Bayesian Methods
Handling Nominal Variables
MCMC Sampling Methods
Appendix A Installation Instructions for RStan and the rethinking Package on the Windows
Platform
Glossary
Index

Downloadable Bonus Content

Excel Worksheets

Book: Statistical Analysis: Microsoft Excel 2016 (PDF)

To access bonus materials, please register your book at informit.com/register and enter ISBN
9780137580989.
Bayesian Analysis with Excel and R

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ISBN-13: 978-0-13-758098-9

ISBN-10: 0-13-758098-3

Library of Congress Control Number: 2022945423

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Contents

Preface
1 Bayesian Analysis and R: An Overview
Bayes Comes Back
About Structuring Priors
Watching the Jargon
Priors, Likelihoods, and Posteriors
The Prior
The Likelihood
Contrasting a Frequentist Analysis with a Bayesian
The Frequentist Approach
The Bayesian Approach
Summary
2 Generating Posterior Distributions with the Binomial Distribution
Understanding the Binomial Distribution
Understanding Some Related Functions
Working with R’s Binomial Functions
Using R’s dbinom Function
Using R’s pbinom Function
Using R’s qbinom Function
Using R’s rbinom Function
Grappling with the Math
Summary
3 Understanding the Beta Distribution
Establishing the Beta Distribution in Excel
Comparing the Beta Distribution with the Binomial Distribution
Decoding Excel’s Help Documentation for BETA.DIST
Replicating the Analysis in R
Understanding dbeta
 Understanding pbeta
Understanding qbeta
About Confidence Intervals
Applying qbeta to Confidence Intervals
Applying BETA.INV to Confidence Intervals
Summary
4 Grid Approximation and the Beta Distribution
More on Grid Approximation
Setting the Prior
Using the Results of the Beta Function
Tracking the Shape and Location of the Distribution
Inventorying the Necessary Functions
Looking Behind the Curtains
Moving from the Underlying Formulas to the Functions
Comparing Built-in Functions with Underlying Formulas
Understanding Conjugate Priors
Summary
5 Grid Approximation with Multiple Parameters
Setting the Stage
Global Options
Local Variables
Specifying the Order of Execution
Normal Curves, Mu and Sigma
Visualizing the Arrays
Combining Mu and Sigma
Putting the Data Together
Calculating the Probabilities
Folding in the Prior
Inventorying the Results
Viewing the Results from Different Perspectives
 Summary
6 Regression Using Bayesian Methods
Regression à la Bayes
Sample Regression Analysis
Matrix Algebra Methods
Understanding quap
Continuing the Code
A Full Example
Designing the Multiple Regression
Arranging a Bayesian Multiple Regression
Summary
7 Handling Nominal Variables
Using Dummy Coding
Supplying Text Labels in Place of Codes
Comparing Group Means
Summary
8 MCMC Sampling Methods
Quick Review of Bayesian Sampling
Grid Approximation
Quadratic Approximation
MCMC Gets Up To Speed
A Sample MCMC Analysis
ulam ’s Output
Validating the Results
Getting Trace Plot Charts
Summary and Concluding Thoughts
Appendix Installation Instructions for RStan and the rethinking Package on the Windows
Platform
Glossary
Index
Downloadable Bonus Content

Excel Worksheets

Book: Statistical Analysis: Microsoft Excel 2016 (PDF)

To access bonus materials, please register your book at informit.com/register and enter ISBN
9780137580989.
About the Author

Conrad Carlberg is a nationally recognized expert on quantitative analysis, data analysis, and
management applications such as Microsoft Excel, SAS, and Oracle. He holds a Ph.D. in
statistics from the University of Colorado and is a many-time recipient of Microsoft’s Excel
MVP designation. He is the author of many books, including Business Analysis with Microsoft
Excel, Fifth Edition, Statistical Analysis: Microsoft Excel 2016, Regression Analysis Microsoft
Excel, and R for Microsoft Excel Users.

Carlberg is a Southern California native. After college he moved to Colorado, where he worked
for a succession of startups and attended graduate school. He spent two years in the Middle East,
teaching computer science and dodging surly camels. After finishing graduate school, Carlberg
worked at US West (a Baby Bell) in product management and at Motorola.

In 1995 he started a small consulting business (www.conradcarlberg.com), which provides

design and analysis services to companies that want to guide their business decisions by means
of quantitative analysis—approaches that today we group under the term “analytics.” He enjoys
writing about those techniques and, in particular, how to carry them out using the world’s most
popular numeric analysis application, Microsoft Excel.
Preface

This book has several aspects that I want to let you know about up front. If you’re already
comfortable with terminology and concepts such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling,
conjugate pairs, and posterior distributions, then this book is probably not for you. You already
know a lot about those topics, and if you need more you know where to find it.

On the other hand, if you don’t feel quite at home with the purpose of random samples, R’s user
interface, and why you might want to work with mean-corrected instead of with raw values, then
it’s just possible that this book offers something that you might want to know about. Both this
book and I assume that you have some background in statistical analysis—say, at the
introductory college level, where you can expect to study some probability theory and how it
applies to the assessment of sample means, variances, and correlations. Particularly if you have
studied these problems in the past, you will be better placed to understand how Bayesian analysis
differs from traditional approaches, and how it works out in the context of the functions and
packages found in R. And if you feel as though you could use some refresher work in traditional
statistical analysis, Pearson is making available to you for download an e-book titled Statistical
Analysis: Microsoft Excel 2016. You’ll find details on obtaining that book at the end of this
Preface.

You’re experienced. You probably have something close to the background in Bayesian analysis
that I had in mind when I laid out the topics that I wanted this book to cover. It seemed to me
that the world already has plenty of books about statistics and experimental methodology: one
more isn’t going to help much. Something similar can be said about using syntax and diction that
R recognizes: we already have as many elementary to intermediate texts on R as we need.

What we did need, I thought, was a source of information that connected the simplistic
capabilities of VBA (the programming language historically offered by Microsoft Excel to give
the user more control over the application) with the more sophisticated capabilities of
programming languages such as R and C.

Similarly, we were missing information about three basic types of sampling that range from the
simplistic, univariate sort of categorical analysis that you find in undergraduate texts to the
complex sampling methods used by techniques such as quadratic approximation and Markov
Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Richard McElreath has written, and has supplied to R, helper
functions that ease the task of designing, writing, and installing the code that does the heavy
lifting for you.

I have done what I can in this book to leverage the Excel skills that you have already developed
in the areas of managing functions, handling data, and designing graphs and plots. The point will
come that you see that Excel too handles the necessary tools of calculus in the form of function
arguments—albeit more slowly and awkwardly. Shortly thereafter you’ll see how the three
fundamental approaches to building posterior distributions by sampling are in fact wonderfully
creative solutions to the same problem.

Now let’s see how I propose to get us there.

Chapter 1: Bayesian Analysis and R: An Overview

When I first approached Pearson about writing this book, I came away from the discussions just
a little discouraged. The editors and their advisors were polite and really good at listening, but I
didn’t think that I heard much in the way of encouragement. In particular, they wanted to know
why I would want to write this book.

Good question. I had several reasons in mind, but it wasn’t easy to articulate them. Still, I did so,
and apparently I did so successfully because, well, look at what you’re holding. And those
reasons made sense as a place to start out, but I’ll keep it to the first two that occurred to me:

Why would you want to read it? There are several reasons, but if you are like most of us you
use Microsoft Excel for most numeric purposes, even though Excel was designed as a
general-purpose calculation engine. You might have stayed away from Bayesian analysis
because you heard that Excel is comparatively slow. And you’re right: because of both
software problems and hardware issues, there was a time when you had to wait and wait for a
solution to the problem that you posed to Bayesian software. No longer. Now you can get an
 answer in a reasonable length of time, and without making assumptions that you don’t feel
quite comfortable with.
People I work with were using familiar words in unfamiliar ways. They were using terms like
prior, likelihood, and parameter in contexts that they did not seem to fit. I wanted to find out
more about what they were saying. But I needed a starting point, and because I was quite
familiar with Excel’s numeric capabilities, I decided to work from the platform of Excel and
toward a platform based on R. It’s true that Excel is comparatively slow and doesn’t have
many functions that you would like to have in a Bayesian-oriented platform. But for certain
problems, Excel works great and returns accurate results in a short timeframe. Fine; I can
work from there.

That’s what’s going on in Chapter 1. Let’s move ahead.

Chapter 2: Generating Posterior Distributions with the Binomial Distribution

The basic idea behind a Bayesian analysis is to create a posterior distribution that informs you
about the parameters that bring about the results of the simulation. You do not want to start a
sequence with one family of distributions and then try to finish the sequence in another family,
so you should aim for a situation in which the prior and the likelihood are from the same family.

That, of course, implies that you select the distributional family from which the product will
stem. You have several families from which to choose, but your choice will almost inevitably
depend on the specific questions that you want to answer, which in turn depend on the nature of
the data that you want to analyze.

One basic family of distributions is the binomial distribution. The term binomial itself implies
the nature of a binomial distribution: two names, such as win and loss, buys and doesn’t buy,
survives and fails to survive, and so on. Consider your lifetime experience with coins. You have
almost surely come to expect that when you pull a coin at random from your pocket and flip it,
the probability is 50% that it will come up heads and 50% that it will come up tails. That’s a
binomial distribution: two names, two outcomes, two results.
The distinctive feature of a binomial distribution is that its values are discrete rather than
continuous. When you flip the coin, you do not anticipate that the flip could come up with any of
an infinite number of results. You anticipate two and only two outcomes, heads and tails.

This can be a very different situation from that of a person’s height or weight. Then, each
measurement is just one of an infinite number of possible heights or weights. The beta
distribution, discussed in Chapter 3, is an example of a continuous distribution as distinct from a
discrete one, such as the binomial. When you set up your analysis using R, for example, you can
specify that a given parameter should be distributed as binomial, or any of R’s distributional
families. This flexibility is one characteristic that makes R’s structure, and its design, so useful in
Bayesian analysis.

Right here’s a good spot to stress that it’s important to specify the distributional characteristics of
the parameters you use in an analysis, but don’t let them blind you to other aspects—aspects that
you might well ignore if you were to ignore all the good reasons for adding Bayes to your
toolkit.

It’s all too easy to forget that one of the key assumptions underlying a binomial test is that any
two tests in your experiment are independent of one another. Suppose that you are studying the
distribution of political party membership; one of the questions you ask is therefore which party,
if any, a respondent belongs to.

To make a valid inference regarding the probability of a participant’s response, you must be sure
that the response is independent of any other response in your survey. So, the value of George’s
response must be unaffected by the value of Ellen’s response. If that is the case, you’re able to
add and subtract subtotals directly (for example, to derive cumulative totals) without having to
adjust for some probably unknowable dependency in the data.

Chapter 2 discusses this sort of concern in greater detail.

Chapter 3: Understanding the Beta Distribution

Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
 THE BATTLE OF APACHE CAÑON.

March 28, 1862.

The immediate consequence of the battle of Valvende was that the

insurgents marched directly past Fort Craig, which for want of men
and provisions they were powerless to invest or capture, direct on
Albuquerque and Santa Fé, which fell into their power without
resistance. Albuquerque was the depot of United States Government
stores, most of which was removed on the advance of the insurgents,
and the rest destroyed. The occupation of Santa Fé was followed by
the proclamation of a provisional government, which however never
entered into practical operation. Fort Craig still remained in the
rebel rear, and Fort Union in the possession of the national troops,
on the north-east, from which direction reinforcements might be
expected. The policy of the insurgents was therefore either to capture
Fort Union before relief could arrive, or maintain their position,
isolating Fort Craig until that post should be compelled to surrender
for want of supplies.
Meantime, news of the critical condition of affairs having reached
the Colorado territory and Kansas, troops were at once organized to
go to the relief of the threatened positions. By forced marches,
scarcely paralleled in history, a Colorado regiment 950 strong, under
Colonel Hough, reached Fort Union on the 13th of March. Here he
gathered around him all the troops available, or possible to obtain,
and marched for Santa Fé, to give battle to the invaders. The latter
moved their forces forward to meet him. The numbers on both sides
were nearly equal—between 1,200 and 1,500. They met at a point
called Apache Pass.
 The main fight took place at Apache Cañon, eighty miles from Fort
Union, and twenty miles from Santa Fé. Three battalions, one under
Major Chivington, one under Captain Lewis, and one under Captain
Wynkoop, advanced to the cañon, on the 28th, when the pickets
reported no enemy in sight. The command then advanced, when
shots were fired at them by the Texans, who were in ambush and
succeeded in killing four privates. The Union men, under Hough,
rushed on them, killing 20 or 30 Texans, wounding many of them,
and taking seven prisoners, four officers and three privates. Major
Chivington’s command, which went ahead and surprised the Texan
pickets, taking 67 prisoners, and 64 provision wagons, now arrived,
and a plan of action was determined upon. It was to meet the enemy
in front and flank them at the same time.
About 12 o’clock they advanced, and the action became general,
the Coloradans doing wonders. The battery under Captain Ritter,
and also the howitzer battery under Lieutenant Claflin, swept the
Texans from the field. The fight lasted until four o’clock, when flags
of truce were interchanged to bury the dead and care for the
wounded. The enemy had about 2,000 men and one 6-pounder. The
Unionists had 1,300 men, one six and one 12-pounder, and four
howitzers. The enemy lost their entire train (64 wagons and
provisions), 230 mules, about 150 killed, 200 wounded and 93 taken
prisoners, among whom were 13 officers.
The Texans, when surprised, supposed it was Colonel Canby’s
force that was coming. The Texan officer in command, with two of
his companies, made several attempts to charge on the Union men
and seize their batteries, but they were each time repulsed, with
tremendous loss, while daring, noble deeds were performed by the
Federal soldiers. At one time, the Texan companies charged within a
few yards of the Union batteries.
The defeat at Apache Pass proved an effectual check on the
invaders, and so far weakened their forces as to compel their
abandonment of the territory, and its complete restoration under the
national authority.
The enemy fled into Arizona, where they found it useless to
remain, and applied to the authorities of Mexico for permission to
cross their territory on their return home, but were refused; they
however succeeded in reaching Texas. A reinforcement of Federal
troops soon after arrived in New Mexico.
 FIGHT AT BLOOMING GAP, VA.

February 14, 1862.

To General F. W. Lander’s brigade had been assigned the perilous

duty of protecting the Baltimore and Ohio railroad at Cumberland,
Md., and the various towns and strategic points in Virginia within a
radius of forty or fifty miles from that centre, at several of which his
troops were quartered.
On the 13th of February, Lander received information that a
brigade of rebels under General Carson had occupied Blooming Gap,
a strong pass in the mountains seven miles beyond the Cacapon
river, whose turbid waters, swollen by the storms of winter, were
deemed an impassable barrier to the advance of the Federal forces.
No bridge spanned the torrent, and the blackened buttress and
crumbled pier gave evidence that the incendiary torch had been at
work.
Lander was then at Pawpaw Tunnels, on the Maryland shore of the
Potomac, a station on the Baltimore and Ohio railroad, midway
between Hancock and Cumberland, with a small force. He
immediately marched to New Creek, in Hampshire county, Va., to
join the detachment of troops at that point, where he also hastily
concentrated all his available command. Taking twenty wagons
loaded with lumber, he proceeded to a point on the Cacapon river,
seven miles south of the railroad, and between the hours of nine and
one o’clock at night he improvised a bridge one hundred and eighty
feet long, by placing the wagons in the river as a foundation, over
which he marched his force of four thousand men, and advanced
upon the enemy’s pickets before the dawn of day.
 With five hundred of the First Virginia cavalry, under Colonel
Anastanzel, he had designed to charge through the rebel camp at the
Gap, and then form immediately in his rear, cut off the retreat, and
capture the whole force, after the Federal infantry, following up the
cavalry charge, should have completed the discomfiture of the
enemy. But the rebels had retired before Lander’s approach; and
when led by the General and his staff, the cavalry flew through the
Gap and beyond it, they met with no opposition. Colonel Anastanzel
was at once ordered to push forward on the Winchester road with the
cavalry, reconnoitre, and, if possible, overtake and capture the
baggage of the enemy.
General Lander meantime brought up Colonel Carroll with the
Eighth Ohio regiment, and the Seventh Virginia, Colonel Evans, for a
support. Colonel Anastanzel encountered the enemy at the head of
the pass, two miles from Blooming. He was met by a sharp fire, and
halted his command. On hearing the firing, General Lander came up
and led the charge, followed by Major Armstrong, Assistant
Adjutant-General; Lieutenants Fitz-James O’Brien, the well-known
poet of his staff, and Major Bannister, Paymaster U.S.A., who had
volunteered for the expedition. A group of rebel officers were distant
about three hundred yards, encouraging their men. General Lander
being the best mounted, outran the rest of the party, and cut off the
retreat of the rebel officers.
“Surrender, gentlemen,” he said, coolly dismounting, and
extending his hand to receive the sword of Colonel Baldwin, over
whom an instant before he had appeared to be riding.
Five of the rebel officers surrendered to General Lander, and four
others immediately afterward, to the officers of his staff, among them
the Assistant Adjutant-General of General Carson.
By this time the rebel infantry, perceiving the small number of
their adversaries, commenced a heavy fire from the woods, but the
cavalry had recovered from its panic, and now rushed up the hill.
General Lander ordered Anastanzel to charge up the road, and
capture the baggage of the enemy. The cavalry dashed forward, and
the advance guard soon overtook and turned fifteen wagons and
horses out of the road. Colonel Evans now came up with his regiment
of infantry, and captured many more of the rebels. Colonel Carroll
cleared the road as he went, both infantry regiments behaving
admirably, following and engaging the enemy to the last, until
ordered back. The pursuit was continued eight miles.
The result of this affair was the capture of eighteen commissioned
officers, and forty-five non-commissioned officers and privates.
Thirty-three of the rebels were killed and wounded, with a loss on the
Union side of seven killed and wounded.
During this engagement Lieutenant Fitz-James O’Brien was shot
mortally while in advance of his comrades, and like the author-
soldier Winthrop, immortalized his name with the sword, as he had
before proved himself great with the pen.
General Dunning, of Lander’s command, returned to New Creek
the same day from an expedition to Moorfield, forty miles south of
Romney, having captured 225 beef cattle and 4,000 bushels of corn.
In a skirmish two of his men were wounded, and several rebels
killed.
 EAST TENNESSEE UNDER CONFEDERATE
RULE.

The history of the world has never exhibited more exalted devotion
to an idea, nor a more splendid patriotism than that of the people of
East Tennessee. We may almost challenge the records of religious
history to produce anything more like holy enthusiasm, than the lofty
inspiration which has characterized these people. In no country, and
among no class can be found more heroic persistence or unfaltering
adherence to principle than has exalted the patriotism of this region.
With many inhabitants of the eastern portion of the State, loyalty
and devotion to the Union became in truth a part of their religion.
The rebel leaders knew that they had very little sympathy in East
Tennessee, and took measures to crush out all Union sentiment with
the iron heel of military despotism. Any expression of sympathy with
the Union cause, any co-operation of its inhabitants with the
loyalists, either for their own protection or for the aid of the
Government, was punished as a crime. The presses of that part of the
State had all been silenced or converted to their own use by the
Secessionists, with one exception. The Knoxville Whig remained true
to the Union. Its vigorous defence of the Government, its exposures
and denunciations of the rebel leaders, its unsparing invective
against the rebellion, and its bold, defiant appeals to the people, rang
like a clarion through the hills and valleys of East Tennessee, and as
the echo gathered from thousands of loyal voices, it made itself heard
through all the valleys and mountain passes of that noble border
State.
The heroic editor of this paper was not to be silenced either in his
voice or his press without a vigorous struggle. The Rev. Wm. G.
Brownlow had learned how to denounce and how to endure, for that
is a lesson most Methodist clergymen are called upon to learn; and
being brave in deeds as well as words, he stood forth in defence of
the country he loved, when she greatly needed the power of his
eloquence and the strength of his arm. The popularity which this
man had won by his uprightness, his courage, and firm adherence to
the Constitution, gave his opinions a force that made him an object
of peculiar importance to the enemy—yet they hesitated to lay violent
hands upon a man whose words were more potent than their
bayonets.
He was frequently threatened by soldiers passing through
Knoxville from other States, yet none dared to execute their threats.
His family were inspired with the same lofty heroism, and on one
occasion when a company of rebels came to his house to haul down
the Stars and Stripes, which was kept floating over his domicil, one
of his daughters stepped out to meet them, and by her courage and
decision protected the flag.
The suppression of this undaunted advocate of the Union, and
faithful and fearless witness against secession, became an inevitable
necessity; and at last, in the hope that he would at least become
silent on political affairs, it was resolved to offer him the alternative
of the oath of allegiance or the cell of a prison. He chose the latter,
and in a valedictory to his readers, published October 26, which must
ever be memorable for its heroic defence of the Union, its bold
denunciation of the rebels and their course, he announced to his
readers the suspension of his paper. This remarkable address, which,
under the circumstances, rises to the sublime in its moral courage,
closed with these words:

“Exchanging, with proud satisfaction, the editorial chair and the sweet
endearments of home for a cell in the prison, or the lot of an exile, I have the honor
to be, &c.

William G. Brownlow.”

Mr. Brownlow was sent to prison, and for months occupied a room
with several other patriots who preferred imprisonment to denial of
the government they loved. Here he was in daily expectation of being
led forth to execution. Though suffering from ill-health he was no
way daunted by the dark fate that threatened him. Nor were these
anticipations groundless, for during his stay there, many a brave
man left that prison to meet a violent death, and he had no reason to
expect a happier destiny.
During the closing months of the summer and fall the hopes of the
people were excited by promises of aid from the government. Loud
and earnest appeals were made for help, and with the energy of
despair the people clung to their principles, through every species of
persecution, robbery, arson, and imprisonment. Hundreds were
hung or assassinated, and the records of Tennessee are among the
most heart-rending that this war for the Union will leave to posterity.
The position of the rebel armies in western Tennessee was at that
time very strong, but the importance of keeping their lines of
communication open with the Atlantic States was great, and
thoroughly understood by the loyalists. To cut these lines was to the
Federals a work of pressing necessity; and in view of the probable
redemption of East Tennessee, the loyalists organized, and on the
night of November 8 they destroyed several bridges, and broke the
lines. Two of these were on the Georgia State road, two on
Chickamanye Creek, Hamilton county, and one on the East
Tennessee and Georgia railroad, on Hiawassee river, Bradley county.
Besides these, two bridges on the East Tennessee and Georgia
railroad on Lick Creek, Green County, and another on Holstein river,
were also burned. The rebels were thrown into consternation by
these events, and their leaders took the most active measures to
arrest and punish the perpetrators. A correspondence between some
of the prominent men ensued, and a large portion of the letters was
discovered among other papers and effects captured after the battle
of Mill Spring, which took place on the 19th of January, 1862. This
correspondence, in which the names Colonel William B. Wood and
General F. K. Zollicoffer appear, prove that the majority of the people
were unalterably for the Union, and that they could only be
restrained by the most oppressive and cruel measures. Colonel Wood
wrote to J. P. Benjamin, the Secretary of War, asking what
disposition should be made of the bridge-burners, to which Mr.
Benjamin replied—“All such as can be identified as having been
engaged in bridge-burning are to be tried summarily by drumhead
court-martial, and if found guilty, executed on the spot by hanging. It
would be well to leave their bodies hanging in the vicinity of the
burnt bridges.”
The loyalists were encouraged in their cause by the devotion of
Hon. Andrew Johnson, U. S. Senator, and Hon. Horace Maynard, M.
C., for Tennessee, whose eloquent and powerful appeals, and
confident assurances of aid, cheered the hearts of the people.
Thousands of East Tennesseeans escaped by night, wandering
along unfrequented roads, until they reached Kentucky, where they
organized regiments, under the direction of the Federal
commanders. Their cherished desire was to return to their own State,
with a powerful army, and redeem their soil. The atrocity of the rebel
guerrillas drove them almost to a passion of revenge, and when
disappointed at the announcement that their time had not come, and
that they must await a more favorable condition of the army,
hundreds of them, when ordered to retreat from the border lines of
their State, strayed from the ranks, despairing and heart-sick, and
falling down by the way, wept bitterly. Several of them, exhausted by
hard labor and forced marches, never rose again, but were
afterwards found dead on the road to Mount Vernon.
On the 26th of November the house of a gentleman named Bell
was attacked by an armed party of the enemy and set on fire. The
inmates, a large family of nine persons, were consigned to the
flames. Two alone of the whole household escaped this horrible fate.
On the 29th a band of twenty-one Union prisoners at Nashville
were compelled to take the oath of allegiance, and enter a company
in the rebel army.
Leadbetter, the secession commander in East Tennessee, had his
headquarters at Greenville, and on the 30th of November issued a
proclamation promising protection and pardon to all who would lay
down their arms and submit to the Confederate government. From
this clemency he excepted bridge-burners and destroyers of railroad
tracks. He closed his proclamation with the assurance that “they will
be tried by drumhead court-martial, and be hung on the spot.” This
terrible order was put into execution a few days afterward. Jacob M.
Hemslier and Henry Fry, two Unionists, being tried and pronounced
guilty of these offences, were hung.
 The days of hope for the Unionists were weary and prolonged, but
deliverance was drawing nigh. The loyal men of the western part of
the State organized to oppose the measures of the leaders, and early
in January a bold resistance was made in Carroll, Weakly, McNairy,
and other counties, against the conscription act. Rebel troops were
sent into these counties to compel submission, and enforce
obedience.
The defeat and death of Zollicoffer, the breaking up of his army,
and the destruction of his stronghold, at last gave a brilliant promise
to these persecuted people that their deliverance was drawing nigh.
This event, succeeded in a few weeks by the capture of Fort Henry,
Fort Donelson, the evacuation of Bowling Green and Columbus, and
the occupation of Nashville, filled every true heart with rejoicing, and
the good old flag once more swept its folds freely over the houses of
East Tennessee.

BOMBARDMENT OF FORT HENRY, FEB. 6, 1862.

The appointment of Hon. Andrew Johnson as military governor of

Tennessee was greeted with enthusiasm by the people. His
reputation and conservative principles were a guarantee for the
character of his administration, and he soon began to rally to his
support the wavering and timid of the people who were still
apprehensive that the Confederates would return and restore their
rule.
Parson Brownlow, after having borne a long and severe
confinement in prison, in which his health suffered terribly, was
released, and sent beyond the military lines of the Confederates. His
reception by the Federal guards was enthusiastic and joyous in the
extreme. As soon as his health permitted he visited several cities in
the West, where he was greeted with overwhelming demonstrations
of popular admiration and respect. On his arrival at New York, May
17th, he was honored with a public reception at the Academy of
Music, which was densely filled with a brilliant audience, eager to
welcome him.
 CAPTURE OF FORT HENRY, TENN.

February 6, 1862.

The brilliant victory obtained by General Thomas’ army over the

Confederate forces at Mill Spring, on the 19th of January, laid open
the rebel lines to the successful advance of the Federal arms, and
served to stimulate the commanders of the land and naval forces to
avail themselves of the opportunity thus afforded.
Previous to the battle of Mill Spring, General Grant, with a large
force, had left Cairo and marched toward Columbus, for the purpose
of reconnoitering the country, and to prevent rebel reinforcements
moving from that point to the assistance of General Buckner, at
Bowling Green, Ky., who was then threatened by the approach of
General Buell’s army. Upon the return of General Grant’s division to
Cairo, a combined movement of the land and naval forces was
determined on for the purpose of capturing Fort Henry, on the
Tennessee river, in Henry county, Tenn., just beyond the Kentucky
State line.
Fort Henry and its approaches were reconnoitered on the 21st
January by the United States gunboat Lexington, with a view to
ascertain its strength and the position of the rebels. She went within
two miles of the fort, and flung a number of shells into it without
eliciting any reply. At first it was thought the rebels had evacuated
the work, but on approaching it still nearer pickets were discovered
at various points. The heavy guns on the work were seen distinctly;
also a number of field pieces. In addition to the fort proper,
numerous earthworks had been thrown up on a high bluff above the
fort, on the west bank of the river. This additional work, named Fort
Hieman, commanded Fort Henry.
 On the 22d January, Brigadier-General C. F. Smith, commanding
the second division of General Grant’s army, was at Crown Point,
Ky., where he had arrived with 6,000 men after a fatiguing march of
over 100 miles from Paducah. He proceeded thence on a personal
reconnoissance, on the gunboat Lexington, in the direction of Fort
Henry. The gunboat advanced up the west channel of the river to a
point within one mile and a half from the fort. General Smith
obtained an excellent view of the rebel fort, camp and garrison, and
sent his report to headquarters. He then marched his division back to
Paducah.
The flotilla of gunboats, which had been so long in course of
preparation on the Ohio and Mississippi, was now ready to take part
in the impending battles of the nation, and to assume that
prominence in the momentous events which were to follow to which
they have proved themselves justly entitled.
Flag-officer Andrew H. Foote was appointed by the Government to
command the naval forces on the Upper Mississippi and the Western
waters, and now led forth his gallant fleet to attack the enemy, in
conjunction with the land forces under General Ulysses S. Grant. The
fleet consisted of
Fleet Officers.—Flag-Officer Andrew H. Foote; Fleet Captain,
Commodore A. M. Pennock; Ordnance Officer, Lieutenant J. F.
Sanford; Ordnance Lieutenant, Byron Wilson; Flag Lieutenant,
James M. Prickett. Essex, 9 guns, Commander William D. Porter. St.
Louis, 13 guns, Lieutenant-Commanding Leonard Paulding.
Cincinnati, 13 guns, Commander R. N. Stembel. Carondelet, 13
guns, Commander Henry Walke. Conestoga, 9 guns, Lieutenant-
Commanding —— Phelps. Tyler, 9 guns, Lieutenant-Commanding
W. Gwin.
For several days, at Paducah, the utmost vigilance was exercised at
the headquarters of the Provost Marshal, in issuing passes, and on
Sunday and Monday, the 3d February, no persons were allowed in or
out of the lines. Half a dozen gunboats steamed leisurely into port
and brought their black forms to anchor opposite the levee, in the
centre of the river.
Monday afternoon, steamers commenced coming up from Cairo,
laden with troops and stores, and by night the whole landing in front
of the town was crowded with the arrivals. The fleet which came up
brought General Grant and Staff, and the first division, under
command of Brigadier-General McClernand. The steamers were
under command of Commodore G. W. Graham, and consisted of the
following boats: City of Memphis, Iatan, D. A. January, Chancellor,
Alp, “W. H. B.,” New Uncle Sam, Rob Roy, Alex. Scott, Minnehaha,
Illinois, Emerald, and Fanny Bullett.
The first division, on these boats, was made up of two brigades,
composed as follows, and commanded by General John A.
McClernand:—First Brigade, Colonel Oglesby, Commanding.—
Seventh Illinois, Colonel Cook; Eighth Illinois, Lieutenant-Colonel
Rhoades; Eighteenth Illinois, Lieutenant-Colonel Lawler; Twenty-
ninth Illinois, Colonel Reardon; Thirtieth Illinois, Lieutenant-
Colonel Dennis; Thirty-first Illinois, Colonel John A. Logan; Swartz’s
and Dresser’s Batteries; Stewart’s, Dollins’, O. Harnett’s and
Carmichael’s Cavalry.
Second Brigade, W. H. L. Wallace, Commanding.—Eleventh
Illinois, Lieutenant-Colonel Hart; Twentieth Illinois, Colonel Marsh;
Forty-fifth Illinois, Colonel Smith; Forty-eighth Illinois, Colonel
Harney; Taylor’s and McAllister’s Batteries—in the latter four siege
guns; Fourth Illinois Cavalry, Colonel Kellogg; Seventh Illinois
Cavalry, Colonel Dickey.
Soon after arriving, General Grant and staff paid a visit to General
Smith, and had a conference, in which it was determined to forward
the division of General McClernand that night, and after landing
them at some point below Fort Henry, out of range of its guns, send
the boats back after General Smith’s division at Paducah. It was
nearly midnight before the boats took their departure.
The point at which the troops were landed is about four or five
miles below Fort Henry, opposite a small town in Kentucky, called
Buffalo. Immediately at the place is a clearing of about one hundred
acres, surrounded on three sides by high bluffs densely timbered,
and reaching down to the river. The troops, on landing, immediately
took possession of these eminences, and planted batteries which
commanded the country in every direction, and then awaited the
arrival of the remaining forces, under General Smith.
Tuesday afternoon, while the troops were disembarking, the
Osband Cavalry, with Carson’s and Carpenter’s scouts thoroughly
examined the country in every direction, even up to within two miles
of Fort Henry. Tuesday night was beautiful; a thousand camp-fires
flashed through the shadows that lay upon the amphitheatre of
wooded hills. The sky was warm and serenely purple, as if brooding
over the first sweet blossoms of May. The silver crescent of a new
moon glittered in the western sky, shedding a faint radiance over the
tree-tops and sloping hill sides. All at once the music of half a dozen
bands broke through the stillness of this lovely scene, and the “Star-
Spangled Banner,” “Red, White and Blue,” and “Columbia the Gem
of the Ocean,” filled the night with bursts of patriotic music. Then
some dreamy strain followed, hushing the soldier’s heart with
thoughts of “Home, Sweet Home.”
On Wednesday, parties were out reconnoitering near the enemy’s
works, and in one case a squad of cavalry went within a mile of the
fort and encountered two hundred rebel horsemen. Both sides fired,
when the rebels ran, leaving one of their number dead, and carrying
off three severely wounded. One man on the Union side was shot
through the brain, and killed instantly. He was the first man who
gave up his life in the vicinity of Fort Henry.
It had been noticed that a steamer belonging to the rebels was
busily engaged in running from the fortifications to some point up or
across the river, which was doubtless bringing in reinforcements.
Two of the gunboats—the Taylor and Conestoga, ran up to nearly the
centre of the island, and dropped a few shells in the direction of the
fort and the steamer, with what result was not known. They effected
a thorough reconnoissance on both sides, and discovered two ugly
torpedoes sunk in the west channel, which they carefully hauled out
and towed down to the shore below.
During the day and night the division of General Smith, from
Paducah, arrived, and was landed on the west shore of the river, with
a view of operating against batteries supposed to be on that side, and
also to counteract a large body of troops, which scouts reported to be
concentrating opposite the fort.
Wednesday night was cold and most disagreeable. About eight
o’clock a heavy storm set in, which speedily quenched the camp-fires,
and sent the troops wet and disconsolate under any shelter that
could be found. All over the southern horizon, in the direction of Fort
Henry, a tremendous thunder storm swept its way, filling the hills
with flashes of fiery blue lightning, and shaking the forests with loud
reverberations of thunder. Hailing this burst of heaven’s artillery,
rolling southward toward the enemy, as a good omen, the Union
soldiers pulled the wet blankets closer around them, turned drearily
in the yielding mud, and fell asleep.
Thursday dawned cloudily, but towards nine o’clock it cleared up
and the sun came out warm and gloriously. Nature nowhere seemed
to anticipate the bloody event which gives the day prominence. A few
more troops arrived, among whom were the Ohio Seventh, Colonel
Lauman, and the Ohio Twelfth, Colonel Wood, both from Smithland,
and which, together with the Seventh Illinois, Lieutenant-Colonel
Bancock; Thirteenth Missouri, Colonel Wright; the Fifteenth Illinois,
Colonel ——, and Company D, First Missouri Artillery, made the
Third Brigade, Colonel John Cook commanding, assigned the right
wing of the advance up the Tennessee shore.
About ten o’clock the gunboats started slowly up the river, four
iron clad steamers leading abreast—the Essex, Captain Porter, on the
right, and the Cincinnati, Commodore Foote, on the left. The three
wooden gunboats ranged themselves abreast and followed, half a
mile or so to the rear.
The iron-clad boats moved up abreast, keeping up the west or high
water channel. Almost immediately on passing the lower end of the
island, the boats and the forts were in each others’ range, but on both
sides an ominous silence was preserved—a silence that betokened
deadly intent on the part of the belligerents. On swept the boats,
coming in full view of the long line of breastworks that broke the east
shore—in full view of the black muzzles of the heavy guns which
seemed watching the approach of the gallant little fleet in ominous
silence—in full view of the flag waving defiantly from a high staff in
the centre of the works, until one could almost see down the huge
bore of the guns, the bright straps of the shells, which seemed like
leashes to prevent the deadly missiles from springing forth upon
their work of destruction—and yet not a trigger was pulled on either
side.
Less than a mile separated the fleet and the fort, and yet not a
word was said. The insurgents appeared to be confidently
anticipating the conflict; and grouped like statues around their guns,
with lanyards stretched, they waited for the onset.
 When about six hundred yards from the fort, the bow-guns of the
flag-ship poured their contents into it, and so close after, that the
reports seemed almost one, the other three poured in their fire.
Scarcely had the smoke cleared from the muzzles of the pieces, ere
the whole ten guns of the rebels belched forth their contents, sending
a terrific iron shower in, above and around the gunboats. Taking
their cue from the others, the three wooden gunboats, which were
about a mile below, opened from their bow-guns, and then the
contest was fairly begun. For one hour the roar was so incessant that
the successive reports of the guns could not, in many cases, be
distinguished. Occasionally there would be a momentary lull—then a
single reverberating roar would give the key-note, and an instant
after all the voices would swell together in one tremendous chorus.
A thick cloud of smoke enveloped the boats, hiding them
completely from view. Over them hovered a dense white vapor, from
which quick flashes of flame leaped and quivered, incessantly
followed by delicate balloon-like forms of smoke, which burst like
ghostly shadows from the enemy’s shells.
From the very first, the fire of the rebel guns seemed directed at
the Essex. In their first volley two thirty-two pound shots struck the
Essex on the starboard bow, indenting deeply the iron sheathing, and
then glanced off, down the river, while a perfect storm of the iron
missiles whistled over her decks, and plowed into the water on either
side. She received in all eleven shots—one of which carried death
through the whole length of the vessel. It entered a larboard port,
carried off the head of the master’s mate, and passing on, entered the
boiler. The steam and water poured out, filling the whole space
between decks, and causing more destruction than all the enemy’s
missiles put together—four men were instantly suffocated, and some
twenty-five severely scalded, among whom was the gallant
Commander Porter. The two pilots, who were in the pilot-house
above, had no escape except through a passage from below, and up
this the steam rushed, as if coming from a safety-valve, and of course
with fatal effect. Both these poor men perished.
Of course the Essex was thenceforth unmanageable. She slowly
drifted down the main channel, and was soon after met by a steamer,
which towed her down to the place occupied by the boats before
starting. Soon after the Essex became disabled, the pelting of the iron
storm proved too hot for endurance, and the rebel flag came rapidly
down. The firing on the part of the gunboats immediately ceased,
and messengers were sent off from the flag-boat, which found, upon
landing, that the rebels were disposed to an unconditional surrender.
In scarcely more than an hour after the first attack, the flag of Fort
Henry was in the dust.
The fort was soon after taken possession of, and it was found that
the sum total of rebel prisoners was between seventy and one
hundred, the balance having left the night before on the steamer
Dunbar.
Among those who surrendered were Brigadier-General Tilghman,
Major Corrico, Colonel Carmichael, Captain Hayden, of the
Engineers, and Captain Miller, with several other commissioned
officers.
Ten of the rebels were found killed, and some twelve or fifteen
wounded. Three hundred and six tents were found on the west side
of the river, and about as many near the fort, all of which bore
evidences of the haste with which the rebels had evacuated their
quarters. Several hundred stands of arms were found, chiefly squirrel
rifles and double-barrelled shot-guns, also a large amount of
clothing, forage, provisions, wagons, mules and horses.
There was a large supply of ammunition, and when the Union
forces entered the fort there was beside each gun an abundance
unexpended. The tents were new and of excellent make, sufficient to
shelter five or six thousand men. The enemy had flour, corn, bacon
and sugar in large quantities, but no salt, and not a large supply of
beef.
There were nineteen guns in position, of the following calibre: two
128-pounders, one 80-pounder, two 42-pounders, rifled, ten 32-
pounders, two 24-pound howitzers, two 12-pound howitzers. Three
6-pound smooth bores, five 6-pound rifles, found outside the
intrenchments.
A twenty-four-pound rifled gun exploded on the fourth round, and
near the close of the fight a shell from one of the Union boats entered
the eighty-pounder and burst, disabling it. Several caissons were
captured in the redan upon the west side of the river, but no guns
were in position.
 Evidences abounded on all sides of the deadly accuracy of the
Federal gunners. Every one of the eleven log buildings within the
ramparts was perforated with shot, the roof of one of the small
magazines was torn open, hurdle-work scattered in all direction, half
the guns knocked out of place, and great gulleys cut in the parapet
and the ground. A thirty-two pounder bearing upon the gunboats
had been struck by a Union shell, completely shattering the muzzle.
The ground beside the embrasure was stained with blood, which lay
in pools on the uneven surface. Beside one of the buildings, with gray
blankets thrown hastily over them, lay six dead soldiers, all fearfully
mutilated. Inside, ten wounded men were stretched upon cots, or on
the ground, some insensible, and others rending the air with groans,
while the surgeons of the garrison were attending upon them. Just
above, on the river, was the hospital ship of the rebels, the stern-
wheel steamer R. M. Patten, which had been captured with the fort.
The ensign of disease, the yellow flag, was flying from the staff,
waving off destruction from sixty invalids.