Operations Management

TUTORIAL NUMBER – 05
TIME: 01 Hour
1. Develop an adjusted exponential forecast for the week of 5/14 for a firm with the
following demand. Let α = 0.1 and β = 0.2. Begin with a previous average of Ft = 650
units, and let the initial trend adjustment, Tt = 0.
Week 3/19 3/26 4/1 4/9 4/16 4/23 4/30 5/7
Demand 700 685 648 717 713 728 754 762
(711.91 units)
2. Bharat lab ran an average of 28 blood tests per week during the past four weeks. The
trend over that period was 3 additional patients per week. This week’s demand (April 12,
2021) was 27 blood tests. Using α = 0.2 and β = 0.2,
i) Calculate the forecast for the next week (April 19, 2021).
ii) If the actual number of blood tests requested in the week of April 19 came out to
be 44, what would be the updated forecast for the week of April 26, 2021?
(Answers: 33.04 and 38.51 respectively)
3. Find the quarterly forecast for the number of products expected next year. The product is
seasonal with a peak in the third quarter and a trough in the first quarter. The quarterly
demand data for the past four years is as follows. Let the forecasted average demand for
the year 5 be 2600 units.
Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
1 45 70 100 100
2 335 370 585 725
3 520 590 830 1160
4 100 170 285 215
(Answer: 130, 845, 1300, 325 for Q1 to Q4 respectively)
4. Asian Paints analyzed the demand time series of their product range and concluded that
product demand has seasonal and random components in it with a seasonal peak in the
fourth quarter. The estimate of the total demand in 2015 is 90x105 liters.
Quarter 1 2 3 4
2010 5x105 2x105 14x105 25x105
2011 7x105 4x105 18x105 27x105
2012 11x105 7x105 22x105 28x105
2013 15x105 10x105 23x105 31x105