Predicting Autism Spectrum Disorder

Using Machine Learning Technique

Research Project
Submitted to department of (Mathematics) in Partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the Degree BSc. in (Mathematics)

By:
Ruxosh Mohammad

Supervised by:
Dr. Awaz K. Muhammad

April-2024
 Certification of the Supervisor

I certify that this work was prepared under my supervision at the Department of
Mathematics / College of Education / Salahaddin University- Erbil in partial
fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of philosophy of Science
in Mathematics.

Signature:
Supervisor: Dr. Awaz K. Muhammad
Scientific grade: Lecturer
Date: 8 / 4 / 2024

In view of available recommendations, I forward this word for debate by the

examining committee.

Signature:
Name: Dr. Rashad Rashid Haji
Scientific grade: Assistant Professor
Chairman of the Mathematics Department
Date: 8/ 4 / 2024

i
 ACKNOWLEDGMENT

In the name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful, first of all. I want to
express my deepest praise to Allah Almighty for giving me patience,
I want to extend my sincere thanks to my math teacher, (Dr. Awaz K. Muhammad),
for her dedication and support in helping me complete my project. Her diligent
guidance and encouragement made all the difference.
Plus, I'm grateful for her patience as she guided me step-by-step through the math
project.
Also, I would like to express my special appreciation to our head of department
(Assi. Prof. Dr. Rashad Rashid) for his support for me during these years, and
thanks
to the entire staff of mathematics department.
I would like to express my gratitude to my parents, family, and friends for their
invaluable support in completing this project within a tight deadline. Thank you!

ii
 ABSTRACT

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a severe, life-prolonged neurodevelopmental

disease typified by disabilities that are chronic or limited in the development of
socio-communication skills, thinking abilities, activities, and behavior. In children
aged two to three vears1, the symptoms of autism are more evident and easier to
recognize. In this research we use several machine learning algorithms such as
support vector machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), K- nearest neighbors (K-nn),
Logistic Regression (LR) and Naive Bayes (NB) for predicting and analysis ASD
problem. The proposed models are validated by using performance measurement
parameters such as accuracy, precision, F-Measure, and recall. Accuracy is
measured over correctly and incorrectly classified instances. The results obtained
show that LR outperforms with the highest accuracy of 0.983% compared to other
algorithms.

iii
Table of Contents
Certification of the Supervisor.................................................................................................................... i
ACKNOWLEDGMENT ............................................................................................................................ ii
ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................ iii
List of tables................................................................................................................................................. 1
List of figures ............................................................................................................................................... 2
INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................... 3
CHAPTER ONE ......................................................................................................................................... 5
Classification Methods: .............................................................................................................................. 5
Naive Bayes Classifier: ............................................................................................................................... 5
Support Vector Machine (SVM): ........................................................................................................... 6
K-nearest neighbors (KNN): .................................................................................................................. 6
Decision Tree Classifier: ............................................................................................................................. 7
Logistic Regression (LR): ........................................................................................................................... 8
Classifier Evaluation Measures ................................................................................................................. 9
Accuracy: ................................................................................................................................................. 9
Sensitivity: ............................................................................................................................................... 9
Specificity: ............................................................................................................................................... 9
Precision: ............................................................................................................................................... 10
Recall: .................................................................................................................................................... 10
F-measure: ............................................................................................................................................. 10
ROC(Receiver Operating Curve): ....................................................................................................... 10
Confusion Matrix: ..................................................................................................................................... 11
CHAPTER TWO ...................................................................................................................................... 12
Dataset........................................................................................................................................................ 12
Description of Data Set Attributes: ......................................................................................................... 14
Representation graph for the data set ..................................................................................................... 16
CHAPTER THREE .................................................................................................................................. 19
Experiments And Results ..................................................................................................................... 19
Representation graph for the results ....................................................................................................... 22
CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................................... 24
Reference ................................................................................................................................................... 25

iv
List of tables

Table 1 : Confusion Matrix ............................................................................... 11

Table 2: Q-CHAT-10 ........................................................................................... 13
Table 3. Description of dataset for attributes. ................................................... 14
Table 4: Confusion Matrix of Support Vector Machine (SVM). ........................ 19
Table 5: Confusion Matrix of Decision Tree ..................................................... 19
Table 6: Confusion Matrix of K-nearest neighbor (KNN). ................................ 19
Table 7: Confusion Matrix of Logistic Regression (LR). ................................... 19
Table 8: Confusion Matrix of Naive Bayes........................................................ 20
Table 10: Comparative Performance of Classification Algorithms on Various
Measures. .......................................................................................................... 20
Table 11: Classifier's Performance on The Basis of Classified Instances. ........ 21

1
List of figures
Figure 1. Target: ASD class ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 16
Figure 2:Histogram of A1 in Q-CHAT-A10 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------4
Figure 3:Histogram Ethnicity ------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 16
Figure 4:Histogram Genetic Disorders---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4
Figure 5:Histogram Qchat 10 Score ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 16
Figure 6Figure 5: Age Distribution --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17
Figure 7 Gendar distribution --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17
Figure 8:Histogram Childhood Autism Rating Scale --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17
Figure 10: sex distribution -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6
Figure 11: Histogram Anxiety disorder -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18
Figure 12:Histogram Jaundice -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6
Figure 13:patient has jaundice at the birth ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18
Figure 14: Histogram Family member with ASD -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18
Figure 15: Precision of all Classification Algorithms.
Figure 16: Recall of all Classification Algorithms.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22
Figure 17: F-measure of all Classification Algorithms. --------------------------------------------------------------------------9
Figure 18: Accuracy of all Classification Algorithms. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22
Figure 19: ROC of all Classification Algorithms. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22
Figure 21: correctly classified instances Algorithm ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 23
Figure 20:incorrectly classified instances Algorithm ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23

2
 INTRODUCTION

The Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) comprises of an autism disorder,

Asperger's syndrome, and pervasive developmental disorder, not otherwise
mentioned [1]. Genetic factors play a significant role in ASD. Autism is
convincingly attributed to genetic mutations, gene deletions, variations of copy
number (CNVs), and other genetic anomalies. Some individuals with ASD are
very verbal and commutative, while others do not use any means of
communication that are verbal. Additionally, some individuals with ASD are
very distracted from all aspects of social contact, while others have relationships
and careers. Studies show that the brain development of ASD individuals grows
differently from the brain of typical controls. Autism is the most rapid
developmental disorder in male and is four times more common than in female.
In fact, the ASD identification depends mainly on the medical experience used
during direct interviews to determine patient's behavior. The last 25 years are of
great importance because it has seen enormous improvements in the detection
of autism at an early stage. Before children learned vocabulary and iconic play
skills, there was a debate about whether they could recognize autism.
Improvements in early activity and structural changes in the brain have been
reported in 6–12-month-old babies who continue to develop autism [2]. Many
researchers are conducting experiments for diagnosing the diseases using
various classification algorithms of machine learning approaches like J48,
SVM, Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree, Logistic regression (LR). as researches have
proved that machine-learning algorithms works better in diagnosing different
diseases. Muhammad Shuaib Qureshi [3] suggested that predict of ASD for the
data set, they found that the best algorithm is RF which accuracy 89.23%
According to Jabber Alniditan they used Accuracy, Recall, Precision and F-

3
Measure algorithms they obtained the best classifier is WCBA which Accuracy
97% .
This project contains three chapter. In chapter one we illustrate several
classification algorithms and materials. This classifiers such as support vector
machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), K- nearest neighbors (K-nn), Logistic
Regression (LR) and Naive Bayes (NB) are used to predict and analysis the
ASD problem.
Chapter two includes the dataset which is composed of survey results of people
who filled an app form. There are labels portraying whether the person received
a diagnosis of autism. This dataset contains factors involved in developing ASD
in children. It consists of the following features: A10 Autism Spectrum
Quotient, Social Responsiveness Scale, Age Years, Qchat_10_Score, Speech
Delay/Language Disorder, Learning disorder, Genetic Disorders, Depression,
Global developmental delay/intellectual disability, Social/Behavioural Issues,
Childhood Autism Rating Scale, Anxiety disorder, Sex, Ethnicity, Jaundice,
Family mem with ASD along with various information. The data here consists
of different quantities and factors which have characteristics of ASD in
children. It is collected from AUTISM RESEARCH: UNIVERSITY OF
ARKANSAS Computer Science Department.
Chapter three, includes all the experiments and results. We use WEKA tools to
obtain the results. Naive Bayes machine learning classification algorithms,
SVM, Decision Tree, KNN and LR are used. The experimental performances of
all five algorithms are compared on different metrics such as Accuracy, F-
Measure, ROC and Recall. Accuracy is measured on correctly and incorrectly
classified instances. The obtained results show that LR outperforms other
algorithms with the highest accuracy of 0.983%.

4
 CHAPTER ONE
Classification Methods:

In this chapter we show several classification algorithms which we used in this

research project

Naive Bayes Classifier:

Naive Bayes is a classification technique with a notion which defines all
features are independent and unrelated to each other. It defines that status of a
specific feature in a class does not affect the status of another feature. Since it is
based on conditional probability it is considered as a powerful algorithm
employed for classification purpose. It works well for the data with unbalancing
problems and missing values. Naive Bayes is a machine learning classifier
which employs the Bayes Theorem. Using Bayes theorem posterior probability
P(C|X) can be calculated from P(C), P(X) and P(X|C).Therefore,

P(C|X) = (P(X|C) P(C))/P(X). Where,

P(C|X) = target class’s posterior probability .

P(X|C) = predictor class’s probability.

P(C) = class C’s probability being true.

P(X) = predictor’s prior probability. [4]

5
Support Vector Machine (SVM):

SVM is one of the standard set of supervised machine learning model employed
in classification. Given a two-class training sample the aim of a support vector
machine is to find the best highest-margin separating hyperplane between the
two classes. For better generalization hyperplane should not lies closer to the
data points belong to the other class. Hyperplane should be selected which is far
from the data points from each category. The points that lie nearest to the
margin of the classifier are the support vectors. The Accuracy of the experiment
is evaluated using WEKA interface. The SVM finds the optimal separating
hyperplane by maximizing the distance between the two decision boundaries.
Mathematically, we will maximize the distance between the hyperplane which is
defined by 𝑤 𝑇 𝑥 + 𝑏 = −1 and the hyperplane defined by 𝑤 𝑇 𝑥 + 𝑏 = 1
2
This distance is equal to This means we want to solve max
||𝑤||
2 ||𝑤||
Equivalently we want min . The SVM should also correctly classify all
||𝑤|| 2

𝑥(𝑖), which means 𝑦 𝑖 (𝑤 𝑇 𝑥 𝑖 + 𝑏) ≥ 1, ∀𝑖 ∈ {1 ∈ 𝑁}.[5]

K-nearest neighbors (KNN):

Knn is a type of supervised learning algorithm used for both regression and
classification. KNN tries to predict the correct class for the test data by
calculating the distance between the test data and all the training points. Then
select the K number of points which is closet to the test data. The KNN
algorithm calculates the probability of the test data belonging to the classes of
'K' training data and class holds the highest probability will be selected. In the
case of regression, the value is the mean of the 'K' selected training points.

d(x,y)=√∑𝑛𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑌𝑖 )2

6
The K-NN working can be explained on the basis of the below algorithm:

• Step-1: Select the number K of the neighbors

• Step-2: Calculate the Euclidean distance of K number of neighbors
• Step-3: Take the K nearest neighbors as per the calculated Euclidean
distance.
• Step-4: Among these k neighbors, count the number of the data points in
each category.
• Step-5: Assign the new data points to that category for which the number
of the neighbor is maximum.
• Step-6: Our model is ready.[6]

Decision Tree Classifier:

Decision Tree is a supervised machine learning algorithm used to solve
classification problems. The main objective of using Decision Tree in this
research work is the prediction of target class using decision rule taken from
prior data. It uses nodes and internodes for the prediction and classification.
Root nodes classify the instances with different features. Root nodes can have
two or more branches while the leaf nodes represent classification. In every
stage, Decision tree chooses each node by evaluating the highest information
gain among all the attribute. J48 Decision Tree (J48 DT) J48 algorithm is a kind
of decision tree which belongs to the supervised learning algorithm. It is one of
the most important classifiers as it is easy and simple to implement. Using the
decision tree, a dataset is broken down into smaller and smaller subsets while at
the same time an associated decision tree is incrementally developed. [7]

7
 𝑛
|𝑃𝑗 | |𝑃𝑗 |
𝐸(𝑃) = − ∑ log
|𝑃| |𝑃|
𝑗=1

|𝑃𝑗 | |𝑃𝑗 |
𝐸 (𝑗 |𝑃 ) = log
|𝑃| |𝑃|

𝐺𝑎𝑖𝑛(𝑃, 𝑗) = 𝐸(𝑃 − 𝐸 ( 𝑗|𝑃))

Logistic Regression (LR):

The classifier works with the class and uses multinomial logistic regression
model with a ridge estimator. For k number of classes and for instances n with
attributes m, the parameter matrix B can be calculated with the matrix given in
Eq(1).

𝐵 = 𝑚 ∗ (𝑘 − 1)
(1)

The probability for class j with the exception of the last class is stated in (8) and
the last class probability given in (3).

∑𝑘−1
𝑗=1 𝑋𝑖 𝐵𝑖
𝑒
𝑃𝑗 (𝑋𝑖 ) = ∑𝑘−1
(2)
(1+𝑒) 𝑗=1 𝑋𝑖 𝐵𝑖

1
𝑃′𝑗 (𝑋𝑖 ) = ∑𝑘−1 𝑋 𝐵
(3)
(1+𝑒) 𝑗=1 𝑖 𝑖

Thus, the negative multinomial log-likelihood is

𝐿 = − ∑𝑛𝑖=1[∑𝑘−1 𝑘−1 𝑘−1

𝑗=1 (𝑌𝑖𝑗 ∗ ln(𝑃𝑗 (𝑋𝑖 ))) + ( 1 − ∑𝑗=1 ) ∗ ln(1 − ∑𝑗=1 𝑃𝑗 (𝑋𝑖 )))] +

𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒 ∗ 𝐵2 (4)

8
Classifier Evaluation Measures

Accuracy: Is the degree to which an expression or measurement conforms to

a true value. It also has to do with correctness or absence of error. The term is
more tightly defined in certain fields, for example scientists distinguish it from
precision.
Accuracy = (number of true positives + number of true negatives) / (number of
true positives + number of false positives + number of false negatives + number
of true negatives)

Sensitivity: Consider the example of a medical test for diagnosing a

condition. Sensitivity (sometimes also named the detection rate in a clinical
setting) refers to the test's ability to correctly detect ill patients out of those who
do have the condition.

Mathematically, this can be expressed as:

Sensitivity = (number of true positives) / (number of true positives + number of

false negatives)

= (number of true positives) / (total number of sick individuals in

population)

= probability of a positive test given that the patient has the disease

Specificity: Consider the example of a medical test for diagnosing a disease.

Specificity refers to the test's ability to correctly reject healthy patients without a
condition.

Mathematically, this can be written as:

specificity = (number of true negatives) / (number of true negatives + number of

false positives)
9
 =(number of true negatives) /(total number of well individuals in
population)

= probability of a negative test given that the patient is well

Precision: (also called positive predictive value) is the fraction of relevant

instances among the retrieved instances. Written as formula :
Precision = (relevant_retrieved_instances) / (all relevant_ instances)

Recall: Also known as sensitivity) is the fraction of relevant instances that

were retrieved. Written as a formula:
Recall = (relevant_retrieved_instances) / (all relevant_ instances)

F-measure: also known as the F1 score, is a metric that is used to evaluate the
performance of a binary classification model. It is defined as the harmonic mean
of precision and recall, and is used to balance the precision and recall of a
model in a single metric.
The F-measure is calculated using the following formula:
F-measure = 2 * (Precision * Recall) / (Precision + Recall)

ROC(Receiver Operating Curve): curves are used to compare the

usefulness of tests.

10
Confusion Matrix:
The confusion matrix is a matrix used to determine the performance of the
classification models for a given set of test data. It can only be determined if the
true values for test data are known. The matrix itself can be easily understood,
but the related terminologies may be confusing. Since it shows the errors in the
model performance in the form of a matrix, hence also known as an error
matrix.

Table 1 : Confusion Matrix

True False

True Positives False Positives

Predicted class

(TP) (FP)

False Negative True Negative

(FN) (TN)

False True

11
 CHAPTER TWO
Dataset
Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopment condition associated
with significant healthcare costs, and early diagnosis can significantly reduce
these. Unfortunately, waiting times for an ASD diagnosis are lengthy and
procedures are not cost effective. The economic impact of autism and the
increase in the number of ASD cases across the world reveals an urgent need for
the development of easily implemented and effective screening methods.
Therefore, a time-efficient and accessible ASD screening is imminent to help
health professionals and inform individuals whether they should pursue formal
clinical diagnosis. The rapid growth in the number of ASD cases worldwide
necessitates datasets related to behavior traits. However, such datasets are rare
making it difficult to perform thorough analyses to improve the efficiency,
sensitivity, specificity and predictive accuracy of the ASD screening process.
Presently, very limited autism datasets associated with clinical or screening are
available and most of them are genetic in nature.
In this work we use a dataset related to autism screening of adults that contained
20 features to be utilized for further analysis especially in determining
influential autistic traits and improving the classification of ASD cases. In this
dataset, ten behavioral features (AQ-10-Adult (see table below)) plus ten
individuals characteristics that have proved to be effective in detecting the ASD
cases from controls in behavior science.
This dataset contains factors involved in developing ASD in children. It consists
of the following features: A10 Autism Spectrum Quotient, Social
Responsiveness Scale, Age Years, Qchat_10_Score, Speech Delay/Language
Disorder, Learning disorder, Genetic Disorders, Depression, Global
developmental delay/intellectual disability, Social/Behavioral Issues, Childhood
Autism Rating Scale, Anxiety disorder, Sex, Ethnicity, Jaundice, Family mem
with ASD along with various information. The data here consists of different
quantities and factors which have characteristics of ASD in children. It is
collected from Autism Research: University of Arkansas Computer Science
Department. Around 77% of the target is ASD negative (0) and 23% ASD
positive (1)

12
Table 2: Q-CHAT-10

13
 Description of Data Set Attributes:
Table 3. Description of dataset for attributes.

Attributes Elucidation of attributes

No
1. Age Years -Patient age is represented in complete
Years
2. Sex -Ether male or female
3. Ethnicity An ethnicity or ethnic group is a grouping of people who identify with
each other on the basis of perceived shared attributes that distinguish them
from other groups.
4. Jaundice also known as hyperbilirubinemia, is defined as a yellow discoloration of
the body tissue resulting from the accumulation of excess bilirubin.
Deposition of bilirubin happens only when there is an excess of bilirubin,
and this indicates increased production or impaired excretion.
5. Social The SRS is a 15-minute questionnaire that measures the severity of
Responsiveness autistic social impairment across the entire range of the autism spectrum.
Scale
6. Q chat 10 Score is a measure of autism risk in toddlers (18 months- 3 years) but does not
actually diagnose a child with autism.
7. Speech Delay A speech and language delay is when a child isn’t developing speech and
Language Disorder language at an expected rate. It’s a common developmental problem that
affects as many as 10% of preschool children.
8. Learning Disorder Having a learning disorder means that a child has difficulty in one or more
areas of learning, even when overall intelligence or motivation is not
affected.
9. Genetic Disorders is a health problem caused by one or more abnormalities in the genome.
10. Depression (major depressive disorder) is a common and serious medical illness that
negatively affects how you feel.
11. Global when a child takes longer to reach certain development milestones than
developmental other children their age.
delay intellectual
disability

14
12. Social Behavioral acting out and showing unwanted behavior towards others.
Issues
13. Childhood Autism There is a lot of assessment tools to help in the diagnosis of autism
Rating Scale available. One of them is the Childhood Autism Rating Scale (CARS).
14. Anxiety disorder is a type of mental health condition. If he has anxiety disorders, he may
respond to certain things and situations with fear. She may also experience
physical symptoms of anxiety, such as palpitations and sweating.
15. Family mem with affects the entire family—parents, siblings, and in some families,
ASD grandparents, aunts, uncles, and cousins
16. Who completed Family member , Health Care Professional
the test
17. ASD traits People with ASD often have problems with social communication and
interaction, and restricted or repetitive behaviors or interests.

15
Representation graph for the data set

Figure 1. Target: ASD class

Figure 2:Histogram of A1 in Q-CHAT-A10 Figure 3:Histogram Ethnicity

Figure 4:Histogram Genetic Disorders Figure 5:Histogram Qchat 10 Score

16
 Figure 6Figure 5: Age Distribution

Figure 7 Gendar distribution

Figure 8:Histogram Childhood Autism Rating Scale

17
 Figure 9: sex distribution Figure 10: Histogram Anxiety disorder

Figure 11:Histogram Jaundice Figure 12:patient has jaundice at the birth

Figure 13: Histogram Family member with ASD

18
 CHAPTER THREE

Experiments And Results

Experiments were conducted with Weka tool.

Table 4: Confusion Matrix of Support Vector Machine (SVM).

A B

A-Tested negative 23 888

B-Tested positive 1043 31

Table 5: Confusion Matrix of Decision Tree

A B

A-Tested negative 17 894

B-Tested positive 1042 32

Table 6: Confusion Matrix of K-nearest neighbor (KNN).

A B

A-Tested negative 32 879

B-Tested positive 1033 41

Table 7: Confusion Matrix of Logistic Regression (LR).

A B

A-Tested negative 14 897

B-Tested positive 1056 18

19
Table 8: Confusion Matrix of Naive Bayes.

A B

A-Tested negative 280 631

B-Tested positive 728 346

Table 9: Comparative Performance of Classification Algorithms on Various Measures.

Classification Algorithms Precision Recall F-Measure Accuracy %

Naïve Bayes 0.369 0.685 0.685 0.684

SVM 0.945 0.973 0.973 0.972

Decision Tree 0.950 0.975 0.975 0.975

KNN 0.926 0.926 0.963 0.963

Logistic Regression 0.967 0.984 0.984 0.983

Table-10 represents different performance values of all classification algorithms

calculated on various measures. From Table-10 it is analyzed that LR showing
the maximum accuracy. So, the LR machine learning classifier can predict the
chances of autism with more accuracy as compared to other classifiers.

Performances of all classifier's based on various measures are plotted via a

graph in Figure-(15-18). Figure-19 represents ROC area of all classification
algorithms.

20
 Table 10: Classifier's Performance on The Basis of Classified Instances.

Total no Classification Algorithms Correctly Classified Incorrectly Classified

of Instances Instances
instances
Naive Bayes 1936 68.4635% 49 31.5365%
SVM 1931 97.2794% 54 2.7204%
1985 Decision Tree 1936 97.5315% 49 2.4685%
KNN 1912 96.3224% 73 3.6776%
Logistic Regression (LR) 1953 98.3879 % 32 1.6121%

Table 11 shows the Classification Algorithms for Correctly Classified Instances and
Incorrectly Classified Instances. We can see that for LR we have 1953 correctly instance
while for Knn we have 1912 correctly instance. Figure-19 represents ROC area of all
classification algorithms.
Figure-20-21 represents Correctly Classified Instances and incorrectly Classified
Instances of all classification algorithms

21
Representation graph for the results

Figure 14: Precision of all Classification Algorithms. Figure 15: Recall of all Classification Algorithms.

Figure 16: F-measure of all Classification Algorithms. Figure 17: Accuracy of all Classification Algorithms.

Figure 18: ROC of all Classification Algorithms.

22
 Figure 19: correctly classified instances Algorithm

Figure 20:incorrectly classified instances

Algorithm

Table-10 determines classifiers performance on the basis of classified instances.

According to these classified instances, accuracy is calculated and analyzed.
Table 11 shows Performance of individual algorithm. It is evaluated on the basis
of correctly classified instances and incorrectly classified instances out of a total
number of instances. From Table-10 and Table-11 we can conclude that LR
classification algorithm outperforms comparatively other algorithms. So, LR
algorithm is considered as the best supervised machine learning method of this
experiment because it gives higher accuracy in respective to other classification
algorithms with an accuracy of 0.983 %.

23
 CONCLUSION

In this work we want to predict autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using machine
learning technique. we use a dataset related to autism screening of adults that
contained 20 features to be utilized for analysis especially in determining
influential autistic traits and improving the classification of ASD cases. This
dataset contains 1985 participants which was collected from Autism Research:
University of Arkansas Computer Science Department. Around 77% of the
target is ASD negative (0) and 23% ASD positive (1).
In this work, we apply five datamining classifiers. Data mining techniques
constitute essential aids in the decision-making processes in many critical areas
such as the medical field, online phishing prevention, text analysis, social
media, and many others. Based on that, all of these algorithms showed good
performance in serving the autism patients, in addition to enhance the prediction
process that decide if the person has autism spectrum disorder or not. algorithms
in terms of seven common statistical measures: Accuracy, Recall, Precision and
F-Measure and ROC and sensitivity and specificity in order to achieve high
level of accuracy when applied on such related domains from the confusion
matrix, the accuracy is calculated from there we found that the LR algorithm
with the best accuracy in percentage split evaluation test with an accuracy of
0.983%.

24
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25
 ‫پوختە‬

‫دەمارەکانە‬ ‫گەشەکردنی‬ ‫درێژخایانی‬ ‫توندوو‬ ‫نەخۆشیەکی‬ ‫(‪)ASD‬‬ ‫ئۆتیزم‬ ‫نەخۆشی‬

‫کەدرێژخایان یان سنورداربیت لەگەشەکردنی پەیوەندی کۆمەالیەتی ‪،‬بیرکردنەوە‪ .‬نیشانەکانی‬
‫ئۆتیزم لەمنداڵی دوو بۆ سێ ساڵی زیاتر دەردەکەون و ئاسانتر دەناسرێنەوە‪ .‬لەم لێکۆلینەوە‬
‫وەک‬ ‫(‪)ASD‬‬ ‫شیکردنەوەی‬ ‫و‬ ‫پێشبینی‬ ‫بۆ‬ ‫بەکاردەهێنین‬ ‫ئەلگۆریتمێک‬ ‫چەند‬
‫‪ .SVM,DT,KNN,LR,NB‬وەبەکارهێنانی پارامیتەرەکان بۆپێوانەکردنی ئەدای کارکردن‪ .‬ئەنجامی‬
‫‪Accuracy ,‬‬ ‫هەر پێنج ئەلگۆریتمەكە لەسەر پێوانی جۆراوجۆر هەڵدەسەنگێنین وەك (‬
‫‪ )ensitivity Specificity , Precision , Recall , F-measure‬ئەنجامەكان بەشێوەی ڕاست و‬
‫هەڵە دەپێورێت ‪ ،‬ئەنجامە بەدەستھێنراوەكان ‪ LR‬بەرزترین ‪ %0.983 Accuracy‬بە بەراورد بە‬
‫ئەلگۆریتمەكان لە ئاستێكی باشتر دایە‪.‬‬

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