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Full download EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts Ashoka Mody file pdf all chapter on 2024
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EuroTragedy
EuroTragedy
Ashoka Mody
A Drama in Nine Acts
1
1
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers
the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education
by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University
Press in the UK and certain other countries.
1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2
Printed by Sheridan Books, Inc., United States of America
To Shalini,
Who never asks for anything in return
CON TEN TS
List of Figures ix
Acknowledgments xiii
List of Abbreviations xvii
x l i s t of figures
8.2. Italy seen in the mirror of Japan’s lost decade. 345
8.3. Young, college-educated Italians leave Italy in growing
numbers. 347
8.4. The euro area’s inflation divergence. 355
8.5. US and Japanese QE cause the euro to strengthen. 358
8.6. Italian banks struggle to collect debts. 380
8.7. ECB’s QE fails to move inflation. 383
8.8. Italians lose their trust in Europe. 389
9.1. The crisis sets the euro area back, both compared with the United
States and relative to its own pace after the Great Depression. 392
9.2. Asia surges ahead of Europe in the technology race. 393
9.3. The great euro-area north-south divergence: public debt and youth
distress. 394
9.4. Southern euro area suffers from weak governance and
institutions. 398
9.5. Flight of foreign investors from Italy, Spain, and Portugal. 413
9.6. German exporters shift their sights away from the euro area. 423
9.7. Support for and trust in the EU has declined along with the reduced
share of trade with EU partners. 424
10.1. Euro-area growth marches to the drum of world trade growth. 439
list of figures xi
ACK NOW LEDGME NTS
xiv a c k n o w l e d g m e n t s
And Bobray Bordelon surely knows more about economic databases than any
other human being.
I am grateful also to Jean Pisani-Ferry and, especially, to Guntram Wolff
and Matt Dann for welcoming me over many summers to Bruegel and giving
me access to their valuable platform to test some of my ideas. Jan Krahnen
at Goethe University and the Centre for Financial Studies in Frankfurt also
generously hosted me for a summer. Through these visits, I was able to meet
and correspond with Otmar Issing, Horst Köhler, Romano Prodi, and Jean-
Claude Trichet, to all of whom I am most grateful for their valuable time.
Thomas Moser of the Swiss National Bank graciously gave me the opportu-
nity to spend several weeks there.
On yet another roll of honor are my research assistants and students. With
extraordinary diligence and pride in her work, Uuriintuya Batsaikhan did
several iterations leading to the final production of the charts in the book.
Several others helped me with the data analysis, proof reading, and edit-
ing: Nidhi Banavar, Rachel Lurie, Graham McKee, Giulio Mazzolini, Arvind
Natarajan, Brandon Tan, Fabian Trottner, Aron Villarreal, Nancy Wu, and
especially Junho Choi. Anton Pluschke was with me from the very start;
with Daniela Gandorfer, at first, he translated German texts and gave com-
ments on various aspects of the book. Hartley Miller and Andrew Atkins
were my French consultants; and Maria Rusak worked on Italian translations.
Quentin Becheau, Nick Ligthart, and Daniel Kang were students who gave
me many specific data and written inputs; they also critically read large parts
of the manuscript with the diligence and candor that makes students so spe-
cial. Christine Östlund helped with many aspects of the book; perhaps most
important, she pitilessly reminded me of opposing views and perspectives.
My editor, David McBride, gently pushed me to attempt greater clar-
ity in my writing, all the while reassuring me that I was making progress.
My previous editor, Scott Parris, was an especially important influence. He
commissioned the book, commented on several drafts of chapters, and reread
the final manuscript. From the very start, Scott gave me the opportunity
to talk to him at great length about where I was going, and he expanded
my horizons with several important suggestions. The ever-courteous Emily
Mackenzie at Oxford University Press helped keep things moving. Deepti
Agarwal shepherded the complex production process.
Through this all, Jyothsna, my wife for thirty-eight years, allowed the
book to live with us for, oh, so many years. With her instinctive intelligence
and empathy, she probably now knows more about Europe than I do. This is
as much her book as it is mine.
acknowledgments xv
L IST O F ABBR EV IATIONS
xviii l i s t of abbreviations
SRB Single Resolution Board
SRM Single Resolution Mechanism
SSM Single Supervisory Mechanism
TAF Term Auction Facility
TARP Troubled Asset Relief Program
UKIP UK Independence Party
VIX Measure of expected volatility in the US stock market
WAMU Washington Mutual
WEO “World Economic Outlook”