Pakistan’s Relations with Afghanistan and the challenge of the Taliban

Dated: 10-05-2024

1. Background of the relations

 Few other countries are closer to Pakistan in culture and history than Afghanistan.
 The economic interests of the two countries are intertwined.
 Pakistan provides access to sea for landlocked Afghanistan, which in turn is a bridge
from Pakistan to Central Asia.
 Durand line treaty signed by Amir (King) Abdur Rahman Khan and British Government
in 1893, established boundary between Afghanistan and British India, the treaty explicitly
prohibited cross-border interference.
 On 30 September 1947, Afghanistan voted against Pakistan’s admission to the United
Nations.
 When Sardar Muhammad Daoud assumed power on July 1973, supplanting King
Mohammad Zahir Shah, his cousin and brother-in-law, apprehensions of deterioration of
bilateral relations rose in Islamabad, as he was a known Pakistan-baiter.
 Daoud entered into close relationships with the Soviet Union.
 By 1976, Daoud appeared to have realized that the Soviets had an agenda of their own.
They had penetrated the internal politics of the country, providing support and assistance
to the revolutionary People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA).
 The contest culminated in a coup on 27 April 1978 that PDPA called the ‘Saur
Revolution’. Daoud and members of his family were murdered, the constitution was
abrogated and a revolution proclaimed by a clique of communist intellectuals.
 Nur Muhammad Taraki assumed the office of president in the name of the PDPA.
 The party lacked a popular base. From the beginning, the new regime was faced with
opposition in the traditional and conservative Afghan society.
 Infighting led to Taraki’s murder in September 1979. He was succeed by Hafizullah
Amin, whose readical reforms evoked even stronger opposition from the Afghan people.

2. Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan December 1979

 On 26 December 1979, the Soviet forces rolled into Afghanistan, eliminated Amin, and
installed Babrak Karmal as president in his place.
 The intervention provoked a deep sense of alarm in Pakistan. Suddenly the buffer
disappeared, and the Soviet superpower advanced to Pakistan’s borders. The security
strategists believed that if allowed to consolidate its hold, the Soviet Union could later
leap down the Bolan and Khyber passes to fulfil the historical czarist ambition for access
to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea.
 The initial thrust of Pakistan’s policy was diplomatic in orientation. Pakistan and other
like-minded countries opposed Soviet invasion of Afghanistan on the platform of the
United Nations.
3. Revival of the US-Pakistan Alliance on Afghanistan

 Pakistan’ decision to oppose Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, provided reason to

revival of US-Pakistan relations.
 US approved economic aid and security assistance for Pakistan.
 New US administration, provided security guarantees and waiver of nuclear sanctions.
 Provided guarantees to support Pakistan in case of possible Soviet-Indian aggression.
 As an earnest of US concern for Pakistan’s security, the US agreed to consider the sale of
forty F-16 aircrafts.
 ON nuclear issue, Washington turned the pressure off and Pakistan achieved the most
important foreign policy goal, nuclear technology.
 US provided around three billion dollars’ aid over five years.
 The United States raised covert allocations for supply of arms to the mujahedeen from
$250 million in 1985 to $ 470 million in 1986, and $630 million in 1987.

4. Geneva Accord (1988) and Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan

 The Soviet system was faltering in mid-1980s

 The economy was in decline
 The people were alienated
 The cost of military confrontation and arms race with the West, occupation of Eastern
Europe, tension with China, and finally intervention in Afghanistan had ‘ruined’ the
Soviet Union.
 The foreign ministers of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Soviet Union, and the Secretary
of State of the United States signed the Geneva Accords on 14 April 1988.
 The Geneva Accord marked the first time for the Soviet Union to agree to withdraw from
a ‘fraternal state’
 Over 13,000 Soviet soldiers were killed and 35,000 wounded. The financial drain was
estimated at 100 billion rubles.
 Gorbachev acknowledged that the intervention was a ‘mistake’.

5. The Afghanistan Civil War, and Rise of Taliban, 1990-2001

 The Afghan people suffered grievously in the struggle to recover freedom.

 Infighting among the Mujahideen led the total collapse of the state.
 Taliban movement started in Qandahaar province of Afghanistan under the leadership of
Mullah Muhammad Umer.
 Later on, the movement spread in other regions of the country.
 In December 1996, Taliban took control of Kabul.
 Taliban established government in Kabul and started their strict brand of sharia rule.
 Only Pakistan, UAE, and Saudi Arab Recognized Taliban Government in Kabul.
 Taliban government’s record of human rights and treatment of minorities became source
of serious criticism.
 Women political, economic and socio-cultural rights were also seriously compromised.
 They harbored terrorists’ organizations such as Al-quaeda in Afghanistan.

6. The 9/11 incident, US invasion of Afghanistan and its impacts on Pakistan

 The 9/11 act of transnational terrorism terrorized the world.
 Within 72 hours, US reached on the conclusion that Osama Bin Laden-led Al-quaeda was
behind the attacks.
 US demanded Bin Laden and operation against Al-quaeda.
 US also asked Pakistan to decide ‘either you are with us or against us’?
 Pakistan decided to go with the US in ‘War Against Terrorism’.
 Pakistan lost around 80,000 precious lives in the War against Terrorism.
 More refugees in Pakistan.
 The 20 years’ long War against Terrorism cost Pakistan around $125 billion collateral
damage.
 The social fabric of society totally damaged.
 Terrorism and religious extremism penetrated in Pakistan.
 On 16 December 2014, the APS attack shocked the whole nation.
 In the face of APS attack, Pakistan designed decisive policy against countering terrorism
and extremism.
 National Action Plan, (NAP), formulation of National Counter Terrorism Authority
(NACTA).
 Pakistan decisively acted against terrorism by 2020.

7. The US Withdrawal from Afghanistan, August 2021, and the Taliban’s return to the
Kabul
 The US withdrew from abruptly in 2021, after the signing of Doha agreement in Qatar.
 After spending around $ 1.2 trillion, and loss of around 3500 soldiers, US could not stay
and consolidated power in Afghanistan and left it for Pakistan to pick up the pieces.
 US president Biden announced ‘we are not here to nation-building process of
Afghanistan’.
 US left Afghanistan more fragile, polarized, and broken.
 That would be consider in the history as US ‘Shameful Flight’ from Afghanistan.

8. Afghanistan under the ‘New Taliban’

 The New Taliban regime committed better and inclusive government, fair treatment of
minorities and guarantees to fundamental rights.
 The international community do not believe on the Taliban’s promises and do not
recognize their government.
 That creates so many problems for Taliban regime including credibility issue and trust
deficit in the eyes of global powers.
 Taliban banned International NGOs’ operations in Afghanistan.
 Strict Sharia laws imposed.
 Government is not inclusive.
 Minorities are living under constant fear.
 Women rights are not guaranteed, especially, girls’ right to education is seriously
undermined.
 Music, art, and TV are practically banned.
 Outdoor sports for women is not allowed
 Serious governance crisis.
 Technically sound and educated youth see no future in Taliban’s Afghanistan.

9. Implications for the region and Pakistan

 Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been emboldened by the Taliban’s victory. It is
using its sanctuary in Afghanistan to pose a growing threat to Pakistan at a time when the
country is grappling with political and economic instability.
 The return of the Taliban in Afghanistan has caused rise of terrorism in Pakistan.
 Hard-won gains against terrorism are at stakes.
 TTP has reestablished sanctuaries in Afghanistan.
 The key terrorist threat in the region is the Afghanistan-based affiliate of the Islamic
State, ISIS Khorasan (ISIS-K).
 The group has ambitions to directly strike the United States, Europe, and Russia,
Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arab and Turkey.
 Security experts expect another 9/11 like situation in future.
 Beyond the direct threat to the United States, Europe, Russia, and regional countries,
ISIS-K’s attacks stoke regional tensions, breed mistrust between governments and
distract allies from strategic competition.
 At the end of March, an Afghanistan-based affiliate of ISIS launched a devastating attack
outside of Moscow, killing over 140 people.
 By reaching Moscow, ISIS-K is trying to signal it has the geographic reach to hit
anywhere in the world.
 Though the Taliban has incentives to counter ISIS-K, its ability to conduct multiple
attacks outside of Afghanistan demonstrates that the Taliban is either unable or unwilling
to fulfill its pledge in the U.S.-Taliban Doha agreement to prevent terrorism emanating
from Afghanistan.
 Victory of Taliban strengthen moral of other regional terrorist and extremists’
organizations as well.
 Though the Pakistani security force has restrained anti-India militant groups in recent
years, a terrorist attack in India with links back to Pakistan still has the potential to ignite
a conflict between the two nuclear-armed states.
Current Situation in Afghanistan
 Afghanistan is now facing one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
 The Afghan economy has no cash to pay salaries or buy food.
 Western aid has been suspended because the Taliban government includes designated
terrorists.
 And millions of Afghans face acute malnutrition and starvation in the coming months.
 The Taliban lack capacity to manage these monumental challenges, but there is no clear
alternative to their rule.

10. Pakistan’s Policy Options for Afghanistan/the Taliban

 Pakistan choose to build relations with the Taliban after the chaotic withdrawal of U.S.
forces from Afghanistan in 2021.
 Pakistan is trying to pick up the pieces after 20 years’ mess which was created by US
invasion.
 All regional and International powers have left Afghanistan alone once again.
 Pakistan cannot ignore and leave war-torn Afghanistan; Pakistan cannot afford anarchy
and chaos at its backyard
 Pakistan leveraging its influence on the Taliban.
 Trying to convince the Taliban to engage with International community.
 Abandon support of TTP and other regional terrorists and extremists’ organizations.
 Respect and recognize Durand Line as an International Border.
 Afghanistan’s land should not be used against any neighbor or any other state in the
world.
 Make sure provision of rights to all communities including women.
 Girls’ educations should be guarded.
 Inclusive government should be formed with the support of all communities.
 Currently, around 3.5 million refugees are residing in Pakistan. Now it is a time for their
respectful deportation from Pakistan and sooth rehabilitation in Afghanistan.
 Pakistan’s political, economic, socio-economic dynamics do not allow to host Afghan
refugees any longer.