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Outline

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1. Current scenario
2. Perspective
3. Intro to Afghanistan
4. A short history of Afghanistan
5. Pak-Afghan relations—A history
6. Pakistan’s concerns in Afghanistan
7. Afghanistan’s issues with Pakistan
8. Pakistan’s objectives
9. Way forward

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Current
Scenario

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US withdrawal and Taliban Takeover
Resurgent terrorist organizations
Humanitarian crisis
International Isolation

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 Taliban Takeover of government

Features:
• Strict Sharia rule
• Women rights issues, esp. education
• International criticism and Isolation
• Humanitarian crisis
• Resurgent terrorist organizations

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Deportation of (illegal) Afghan Refugees (2023)

• Over 4 million refugees in Pakistan since Soviet

Occupation
• Some also arrived post Taliban takeover 2021
• About 375,000 Afghans forced out. 20,000 deported
• Criticism by human rights organizations

Factors in Pakistan’s decision

• Concerns over rise in Terrorist incidents
• Diplomatic impasse with Taliban over TTP

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 Intro to
Afghanistan

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 Afghan
Society
Pre-dominantly rural and conservative society
One of the least urbanized: 26% , and centered around a few
cities
Urban Rural divide
Ethnic divide
Tribal structure
Economy based on agriculture and mining

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 Afghan
Geography
Mountainous and harsh terrain and climate
one of the factors in poverty and unending wars
Always at the crossroads of invaders
Difficult to govern

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 Afghan
Governance
Tribal governance structure
Central urban governments little power over peripheries
Very hard to govern

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Key players

Mujahideen
Warlords
Taliban
Al-Qaeda
IS

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A Short
History

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  2nd Anglo-Afghan war and estb of Durant
Line in 1893
3rd Anglo-Afghan war and Rawalpindi
treaty 1919
 King Zahir Shah’s rule since 1930s
Pre-1947
 Demands revising Durant Line agreement
 M Daud Khan becomes PM in 1953
 Daud Khan forced to resign in 1963
 Daud Khan stages Coup against King in
1973
Interlude Saur Revolution and rise of communists
1947-1979
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  USSR invades Afghanistan
 Resistance and rise of Mujahideen
 US supports Mujahideen against USSR
 Inflow of fighters from Muslim world
Soviet Invasion  Estb of Al-Qaeda
and war
1979-1989
 Power Vacuum war for power
 Multiple warlords vie for power
 Destruction, chaos and instability
 Rise of Taliban

Civil War
1989-1996
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  Establishment of Islamic Emirate
 Imposition of strict interpretation of
Sharia
 International isolation
Taliban
 Al-Qaeda’s use of Afghan soil for attacks
Government abroad
1996-2001
 9/11 attack and pressure on Taliban govt
 Fall of Taliban
 Attempt at reestablishing democratic
governance
 Taliban resurgence
Post 9/11  US withdrawal
2001-
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Pak-Afghan
History

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1947 and start of hostilities
 Afghan refusal to accept Durand Line
 Voted against Pakistan’s membership in UN
 Claim over Pashtun / Baloch areas
 Demand for renegotiating border agreement

Pressure on western border

Afghan Support for Pakhtun
secessionists
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Growing Indian Influence in
Afghanistan

Soviet Invasion
 Pakistan’s role in resistance: Operation Cyclone

Afghan Civil War

 Pakistan’s support for warlords: Hekmatyar’s Hizb e Islami
Pakistan’s role in sponsoring Taliban and Taliban
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9/11 and Onwards
 Back to square one
 Pakistan’s dilemma
 Resurgent Indian influence
 Afghan harboring of anti-Pakistan militant and
secessionist groups and vice-versa
 Biding time

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 Pakistan’s concerns in
Afghanistan
• Two-border situation
• Indian influence
• Anti-Pakistan militant / terrorist organizations in Afghanistan
• Baloch / Pashtun secessionists in Afghanistan
• Economic interests

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 Afghanistan’s concerns with
Pakistan
• Grievances related to Durand Line
• Pakistan’s interference in Afghan governance
• Pakistan’s support for Taliban (previously)

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 Pakistan’s objectives
• Influence over Afghan government
• Countering Indian influence
• Denial of safe haven to anti-Pakistan militant groups
• Trade and energy routes to Central Asia
• Strategic depth?

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 Way
Forward

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