IMAN Report India’s Coal Imports – May 2024

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This report is not for sale and has no commercial value. It is prepared for the trading partners of Iman Resources for a better
understanding of the Indian imported coal market.

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applicable. If we have inadvertently missed crediting a source, we apologize.

The figures in our report are estimates and not exact numbers. There is a likelihood of variance from official sources or other
agencies.

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Resources as the source.
Section - 1 Macro-Economic Dashboard
Highlights
• In May 2024, in the midst of intense heatwaves and decline in water levels at reservoirs, India hit a record high in
electricity demand and generation. Most of the electricity generated was coal fired and Indian utilities burned a record
amount of coal ~ 79.7 million metric tonnes (MMT). Coal’s share in power generation was about 72%
• The utilities received 79.5 mmt of which 72.6 mmt was domestic coal and 6.9 mmt was imported coal.
• During the month, India also lit up the gas based thermal power stations and their contribution in electricity generation
was about 3%.
• India’s total installed capacity is 444 GW of which 217 GW is coal fired theral capacity, Gas based is ~ 25 GW and diesel is
~ 6GW. Hydro ~ 47 G, Nuclear ~ 8 GW and Renewables account for ~ 147 GW (about 33% of total installed capacity).
• Renewables account for about 33% of installed capacity but account for ~12 – 15% of total electricity generated.
• India’s peak daily demand has topped 250 GW and India doesn’t have sufficient coal based thermal capacity to meet this
demand which led the government to fire up all idled gas based capacity to ensure that there is sufficient supply.
• However, the grid did get strained ad there were grid issues in Northern India including the National Capital territory in
June.
• Looking at the spot daily prices on the Indian Energy Exchange what is noticeable is that there is sufficient supply of
electricity during the day but there is a shortage of supply at night.
• The government has not added coal based thermal capacity in the last 10 years but has encouraged the growth of the
renewable sector. Over the next few years, we will see a reversal in trend where coal fired capacity will see a rapid
expansion.
 GROWTH OF INSTALLED CAPACITY ( RES )

GROWTH OF INSTALLED CAPACITY ( Nuclear )

125 160
156 608
6 780
109 885
6 780
94 434
6 780
77 642
6 780
69 022 6 780
57 244 6 780
45 924 6 780
38 959 5 780
34 988 5 780
27 542 4 780
24 504 4 780
18 455 4 780
15 521 4 780
13 242 4 560
11 125 4 120
RES

Nuclear

7 761 4 120
1 628 3 900
902 2 720
32 2 225
18 1 785
0 1 565
0 1 095
0 640
0 640
0 640
0 0
0 0
0 0
0
0
0
GROWTH OF INSTALLED CAPACITY ( Thermal )

GROWTH OF INSTALLED CAPACITY ( Hydro )

237 269 46 850

236 109 46 723
236 109 46 723
234 728 46 209
Power Gen – Capacity Addition

226 279 45 399

45 293
222 906
44 478
218 330
42 783
210 676
Source: National Power Portal, Ministry of Power

41 267
188 898
40 531
168 255
39 491
151 531
38 990
131 603
37 567
112 824
36 863
102 454
36 878
93 725
35 909

Hydro
91 907

Thermal
34 654
86 014
26 269
74 429
21 658
61 010
19 194
48 054
18 307
43 746
14 460
27 030
11 384
16 424 10 833
15 207 6 966
9 058 5 907
7 050 4 124
4 903 1 917
2 736 1 061
1 825 560
1 153
24 hour daily spot Power price
Source: India Energy Exchange
Macro-Economic Dashboard
• Here are some recent PMI values for India:
• April 2024
• 58.8, the second-strongest expansion in 3.5 years, though slightly lower than March's 16-year high of 59.1. This value
was above the neutral mark of 50.0 and the long-run average of 53.9.
• May 2024
• 57.5, below preliminary estimates and market forecasts of 58.4. This indicated a slower but still substantial improvement
in the manufacturing sector, with a softer rise in new orders and output. Companies also reported reduced working
hours due to the heatwave, which may have affected production volumes.
• +India’s core sector growth reached 6.2% in April (vs 6% in March). Except for fertilisers, all other sectors recorded
output growth: Commerce Ministry.
• India’s fiscal deficit stood at 5.6% (Rs 16.54 trillion) in 2023-34. It was 95.3% of the budget estimate.
• India’s fiscal deficit for April-May stood at Rs 506.15 billion or 3% of the total estimated fiscal deficit for the entire
financial year.
• India’s infrastructure output rose 6.3% year-on-year in May (vs 6.7% in April): Commerce Ministry.
• The water level of India’s 150 main reservoirs has dropped to 23%: Central Water Commission data.
• Temperature in Delhi reached a record high – 52.3 degree Celsius.
• India’s GDP growth rate stood at 8.2% in 2023-24 (vs 7% in 2022-23). It was 7.8% in the Jan-March quarter.
• India’s exports rose 9.1% year-on-year to $38.13 billion in May. Imports also rose 7.7% to $61.90 billion in May. Trade
deficit stood at $23.78 billion.
Macro-Economic Dashboard
• Retail inflation in India fell to a 12-month low of 4.75% in May (vs 4.83% in April). And food inflation fell to 8.62% in May
(vs 8.75% in April).
• India’s wholesale price inflation was 2.61% year-on-year in May (vs 1.26% in April).
• India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 5% year-on-year in April (vs 4.6% in 2023). Mining and power sectors rose
the most.
• Forex reserves rose by $4.3 billion to an all-time high of $655.8 billion as of 7 June: RBI data.
• RBI has kept the interest rate (repo rate) unchanged at 6.5%. Inflation projection is also unchanged at 4.5% for the
current financial year.
• Job growth in the US was higher than expected in May. However, the unemployment rate still rose to 4% from 3.9% in
April.
• The Chinese central bank has reportedly paused adding gold to its reserves after 18 months of buying.
• Number of High Net Worth Individuals (HNIs) in India increased by 12.2% year-on-year in 2023 to 35.89 lakh. Their
wealth increased 12.4% to $1,445.7 billion.
• BHEL: received Rs 7,000 cr order from Adani Group for 2 power plants in Raipur and Mirzapur.
• Ambuja Cement: will acquire Penna Cement Industries for Rs 10,422 cr.
• The total micro-loans lending in India rose 27% year-on-year in the Jan-March quarter: Crif High Mark report.
• Domestic passenger vehicle sales rose 4% year-on-year in May. Also, 2-wheeler sales rose around 10% and 3-wheeler
sales rose around 15% in May: SIAM.
Macro-Economic Dashboard
• Auto retail sales in May fell 5.28% compared to the previous month. Sales were up 2.6% when compared to May 2023.
(FADA Press Release)
Section - 2 India – Total Imports Overview
India’s Imports – Coal & Coke (MT)

India Coal and Coke Import (MT) • Total Solid Fuel imports touched
300,000,000 about ~ 26 MMT with Non coking
imports exceeding 17 MMT.
250,000,000 • In the first 4 months of 2024, solid fuel
imports exceed 91 MMT vs 81 MMT in
200,000,000
first 4 months of 2023. Pet coke
imports grew 34.42% to 5.61 MMT vs
150,000,000
4.17 MMT in first 4 months of 2023.
100,000,000 • PCI imports also continue their secular
growth growing 16% in the first 4
50,000,000 months of 2024.
• Coking coal imports have grown ~ 12%
-
CY 2020 CY 2021 CY 2022 CY2023 CY2024 YTD and non coking coal imports ~ 10%.
PET COKE 9,817,673 4,893,871 9,832,224 12,287,443 6,844,087 (Details on next slide)
MET COKE 2,632,358 2,173,538 3,323,603 3,860,862 1,820,023
PCI 12,754,716 14,186,766 15,248,388 17,318,975 8,455,183
ANTHRACITE 1,953,790 2,185,118 2,299,231 2,264,125 748,507
NON COKING COAL 157,926,183 137,412,586 160,874,687 180,157,235 75,617,579
COKING COAL 45,648,295 53,887,510 52,912,960 57,060,221 23,699,083
India’s Imports – Coal & Coke

% Change % Change % Change

May 24 Apr 24 MoM May 23 YoY Jan-May2024 Jan-May2023 YoY

COKING COAL 4,899,410 4,965,680 -1.33% 6,277,416 -21.95% 23,699,083 23,044,776 2.84%

NON COKING COAL 17,093,472 17,244,139 -0.87% 19,362,357 -11.72% 75,617,579 72,268,850 4.63%

ANTHRACITE 117,697 58,571 100.95% 329,906 -64.32% 748,507 995,208 -24.79%

PCI 1,763,810 1,841,879 -4.24% 2,236,339 -21.13% 8,455,183 7,903,019 6.99%

MET COKE 461,195 376,208 22.59% 192,078 140.11% 1,820,023 1,563,006 16.44%

PET COKE 1,231,348 1,460,484 -15.69% 1,156,728 6.45% 6,844,087 5,332,360 28.35%

TOTAL COAL AND COKE IMPORT 25,566,933 25,946,962 -1.46% 29,554,824 -13.49% 117,184,461 111,107,220 5.47%
 -
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
11,000,000
13,000,000
15,000,000
17,000,000
19,000,000
21,000,000

5,000,000
7,000,000
9,000,000
Apr 22
Apr 22
May 22 May 22
Jun 22 Jun 22
Jul 22 Jul 22
Aug 22 Aug 22
Sep 22 Sep 22
Oct 22 Oct 22
Nov 22 Nov 22
Dec 22 Dec 22
Jan 23 Jan 23
Feb 23 Feb 23
Mar 23 Mar 23
Apr 23 Apr 23

PET COKE
India’s Import trends

May 23 NON COKING COAL May 23

Jun 23 Jun 23
Jul 23
Pet Coke Import trends
Jul 23
Aug 23 Aug 23
Non Coking Coal Import trend

Sep 23 Sep 23
Oct 23 Oct 23
Nov 23 Nov 23
Dec 23 Dec 23
Jan 24 Jan 24
Feb 24 Feb 24
Mar 24 Mar 24
Apr 24 Apr 24
May 24 May 24
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000

Apr 22 Apr 22
May 22 May 22
Jun 22 Jun 22
Jul 22 Jul 22
Aug 22 Aug 22
Sep 22 Sep 22
Oct 22 Oct 22
Nov 22 Nov 22
Dec 22 Dec 22
Jan 23 Jan 23
Feb 23 Feb 23
Mar 23 Mar 23
Apr 23 Apr 23
PCI COAL

May 23 May 23
COKING COAL

PCI Import trend

Jun 23 Jun 23
Jul 23 Jul 23
Coking Coal Import trend

Aug 23 Aug 23
Sep 23 Sep 23
Oct 23 Oct 23
Nov 23 Nov 23
Dec 23 Dec 23
Jan 24 Jan 24
Feb 24 Feb 24
Mar 24 Mar 24
Apr 24 Apr 24
May 24 May 24
India’s Imports – Non-Coking Coal

NON COKING COAL May-24 Apr-24 MoM Change May-23 YoY Change

AUSTRALIA 326,900 349,447 -6.45% 584,470 -44.07%

CANADA - 18

CHINA - 28 -

COLOMBIA 165,000 165,552

INDONESIA 10,435,691 11,330,262 -7.90% 8,482,898 23.02%

KAZAKHSTAN 187,754

MOZAMBIQUE 464,940 385,797 20.51% 1,140,567 -59.24%

RUSSIA 380,370 662,484 -42.58% 1,302,294 -70.79%

SOUTH AFRICA 3,238,492 2,693,572 20.23% 6,069,335 -46.64%

TANZANIA 73,211 74,950 -2.32% -

UNITED STATES 2,008,868 1,582,030 26.98% 1,677,839 19.73%

TOTAL 17,093,472 17,244,139 -0.87% 19,445,157 -12.09%

India’s Imports – Non-Coking Coal

NON COKING COAL IMPORTER SEGMENTS May-24

ALUMINIUM 58,513

CEMENT 1,678,663

CHEMICALS 511,413

LIGHT INDUSTRIES 82,700

MERCHANT COKERY / TRADERS 587,449

PAPER 70,427

PHARMA 30,000

POWER GENCO 5,326,247

POWER GENCO/GASIFICATION 180,279

STEEL AND SPONGE IRON 2,305,104

TRADER 6,189,240

ZINC 73,437

TOTAL 17,093,472
India’s Imports – Petcoke
PETCOKE May-24 Apr-24 MoM Change May-23 YoY Change

ARGENTINA 623 58,077 -98.93% 6,015 -89.64%

CANADA 77,000

CHINA - 16,448 26,250

GERMANY 18,149 17,000 6.76% 8,946 102.87%

JAPAN 1,716 3,301 -48.01% 950 80.57%

KUWAIT 12,000 33,000 -63.64% 46,992 -74.46%

MALAYSIA 22,000 - -

NETHERLANDS 11,930

OMAN 92,851 46,000 101.85% 31,149 198.08%

RUSSIA - 54,232

SAUDI ARABIA 281,593 328,622 -14.31% 327,133 -13.92%

SPAIN 26,487 24,941 6.20%

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 97,599 - -

UNITED KINGDOM 6,171 3,730 65.43% 6,765 -8.78%

UNITED STATES 643,577 606,146 6.18% 524,918 22.61%

VENEZUELA 28,582 293,929 -90.28% 63,739 -55.16%

TOTAL 1,231,348 1,460,484 -15.69% 1,156,728 6.45%

India’s Imports – Petcoke

PET COKE IMPORTER SEGMENTS May-24

ALUMINIUM 50,487

CALCINATION 163,402

CEMENT 962,460

POWER GENCO/GASIFICATION 54,999

TOTAL 1,231,348
India’s Imports – Anthracite

ANTHRACITE May-24 Apr-24 MoM Change May-23 YoY Change

BAHRAIN 684 555 23.20% 248 176.02%

CHINA 2,438 2,825 -13.70% 4,057 -39.90%

OMAN 117

RUSSIA 113,450 54,585 107.84% 323,319 -64.91%

TURKEY - 193 -100.00% 1,352 -100.00%

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 1,009 381 165.00% 790 27.66%

UNITED KINGDOM - - 60

UNITED STATES - 33 -

VIETNAM - - 82

TOTAL 117,697 58,571 100.95% 329,906 -64.32%

India’s Imports – Anthracite

ANTHRACITE IMPORTER SEGMENTS May-24

ALUMINIUM 336

CHEMICALS 41,500

LIGHT INDUSTRIES 32,393

STEEL AND SPONGE IRON 41,381

TRADER 2,087

TOTAL 117,697
India’s Imports – Coking Coal

COKING COAL May-24 Apr-24 MoM Change May-23 YoY Change

AUSTRALIA 2,748,101 2,692,351 2.07% 4,200,385 -34.58%

CANADA 144,609 252,944 -42.83% 357,818 -59.59%

COLOMBIA - 76,451 12,400

INDONESIA 259,893 245,833 5.72% 150,759 72.39%

MOZAMBIQUE 339,450 267,935 26.69% 165,789 104.75%

RUSSIA 464,110 571,054 -18.73% 240,082 93.31%

UNITED STATES 943,247 859,113 9.79% 1,067,383 -11.63%

TOTAL 4,899,410 4,965,680 -1.33% 6,194,616 -20.91%

India’s Imports – Coking Coal

COKING COAL IMPORTER SEGMENTS May-24

ALUMINIUM 11,000

MERCHANT COKERY / TRADERS 291,922

STEEL AND SPONGE IRON 4,392,621

TRADER 203,868

TOTAL 4,899,410
India’s Imports – PCI

PCI May-24 Apr-24 MoM Change May-23 YoY Change

AUSTRALIA 461,154 619,024 -25.50% 740,762 -37.75%

RUSSIA 1,302,656 1,222,855 6.53% 1,495,577 -12.90%

TOTAL 1,763,810 1,841,879 -4.24% 2,236,339 -21.13%

India’s Imports – PCI

PCI IMPORTER SEGMENTS May-24

ALUMINIUM 22,000

LIGHT INDUSTRIES 32,750

MERCHANT COKERY / TRADERS 6,500

STEEL AND SPONGE IRON 1,555,560

TRADER 147,000

TOTAL 1,763,810
India’s Imports –Metcoke

METCOKE May-24 Apr-24 MoM Change May-23 YoY Change

AUSTRALIA - 15,750 -

CHINA 100,893 133,706 -24.54% 76,724 31.50%

COLOMBIA 28,027 97 28937.34% 54,684 -48.75%

GERMANY 202 - -

INDONESIA 265,591 158,088 68.00% -

JAPAN 22,000

OMAN 69 202 -65.88%

PERU 509

POLAND 65,696 68,275 -3.78% 37,448 75.43%

QATAR 187 - 408 -54.17%

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - - 44

UNITED KINGDOM 115 40 187.50% 53 116.98%

UNITED STATES 5

ZIMBABWE 416 253 64.50% -

TOTAL 461,195 376,208 22.59% 192,078 140.11%

India’s Imports –Metcoke

MET COKE IMPORTER SEGMENTS May-24

ALUMINIUM 466

LIGHT INDUSTRIES 793

MERCHANT COKERY / TRADERS 135,383

STEEL AND SPONGE IRON 320,039

TRADER 4,514

TOTAL 461,195
Section - 3 India’s Coal Imports by Origin
India’s Imports –By Origin (in MT)
Section -4 Coal Production
 India’s Production – Coal Yearly (MMT)
Source : Office of Economic Advisory / SCCL / CIL

1,200.00 • Coal India produced 64.4 million tonnes of coal in the

month of May, a 7.5 per cent year-on-year rise
1,000.00 compared to the same period last year. It had
produced 59.93 million tonnes of coal in May last
800.00 year.
• India produced 83.91 million tonnes in May 2024 a
600.00
growth of 10.15per cent. Whilst Coal India’s growth
has been extremely good on a very high base the real
growth in production is being led by Captive and
400.00
Commercial private miners. In May captive and
commercial mines produced 13.78 mmt, a growth of
200.00
32.76% over May last year
• Coal dispatch, was higher than production in May
-
CY 2024 2024 at 90.84 million tonnes. The pace of dispatch
CY 2020 CY 2021 CY 2022 CY2023
YTD versus last year was a growth of 10.35%.
Others (Captive & Pvt) 67.30 84.89 108.25 143.030 76.050 • This report has always maintained that whilst India
SCCL 49.93 64.44 65.76 69.560 31.570
can produce a lot of coal, it will find it difficult to haul
Coal India 606.18 617.06 688.04 756.040 367.930
the coal to where the demand for coal exists and
Coal India SCCL Others (Capti ve & Pvt)
therefore, there will always be demand for imported
coal.
India’s Production and Despatch (MMT)
Source : Office of Economic Advisory, CIL, SCCL and Captive + private

130.00
• From 2010 to 2020 India had overcapacity in coal
120.00 power generation and a shortage in coal production
110.00
100.00
and deliveries.
90.00 • In the last 10 years there has been very little
80.00
70.00
capacity addition in coal fired capacity but a
60.00 remarkable increase in coal production and
50.00
40.00 dispatch.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2021 73.52 74.60 95.96 51.62 53.25 50.98 54.25 53.86 51.71 63.92 67.94 74.78 • However, logistics continue to be a bottle neck.
2022 79.64
2023 89.96
79.54
86.62
95.76 66.68 71.30 67.59
107.84 73.140 76.130 73.920 69.280 68.370 67.280 78.650 84.520
60.42 58.34 57.93 66.11 75.87 82.87
92.92
• Going forward, we will see a rapid expansion in coal
2024 99.74 96.580 116.62 78.680 83.930 fired thermal generating capacity.
• Hopefully coal production and logistics will keep
Indian Coal Production & Despatch
140
pace.
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23
Feb-21

Feb-22

Feb-23

Feb-24
Oct-20

Oct-21

Oct-22

Oct-23
Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22

Dec-23
Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24
Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22

Aug-23

Total Despatch Total Production

 200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
100

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
M
ay
J u '2 2 Apr-20
ne
'2
Ju 2 Jun-20
ly'
Au 22 Aug-20
g'
Se 2 2 Oct-20
pt
'2
Oc 2 Dec-20
t'
No 22 Feb-21
v'2
De 2 Apr-21

Power Generation
c '2
Ja 2 Jun-21
n'
2 Aug-21
Fe 3
b'2
M 3 Oct-21
ar
'2
Ap 3 Dec-21
r'

Avg daily Coal Cargo trains movement

M 23 Feb-22
ay
'2
Ju 3 Apr-22

Steel & Sponge Iron

n-
2 Jun-22
Ju 3
l-2
Au 3 Aug-22
g-
2

Avg Daily Coal trains

Se 3 Oct-22
Cement
p-
2 Dec-22
Oc 3
t-2
Feb-23
Coal despatch to differet sectors

No 3
v-2
De 3 Apr-23
c-
2 Jun-23
Ja 3
n-
Fe 24 Aug-23
b-
Traders & Others

M 24 Oct-23
ar
-2
Dec-23

Avg Dail y coal trains for Power Sector

Ap 4
r-
M 24 Feb-24
ay
-2
4 Apr-24
Source : Office of Economic Advisory, CIL, SCCL and Captive + private
India’s Production and Despatch (MMT)

30.00
50.00
70.00
90.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00

110.00
130.00
150.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00

1-Mar-20 1-Mar-20
1-May-20 1-May-20
1-Jul-20 1-Jul-20
1-Sep-20 1-Sep-20
1-Nov-20 1-Nov-20
1-Jan-21 1-Jan-21
Total Coal Production

1-Mar-21 1-Mar-21
1-May-21 1-May-21
1-Jul-21 1-Jul-21
1-Sep-21 1-Sep-21
Total Pithead Stocks
Total Coal Production

1-Nov-21 1-Nov-21
1-Jan-22 1-Jan-22
1-Mar-22 1-Mar-22
1-May-22 1-May-22
Total thermal coal import

1-Jul-22 1-Jul-22
1-Sep-22 1-Sep-22
1-Nov-22 1-Nov-22
1-Jan-23 1-Jan-23
1-Mar-23 1-Mar-23
Total thermal coal import
Coal Stock at Power plant s

1-May-23 1-May-23
1-Jul-23 1-Jul-23
Coal stocks Vs Production and Thermal coal imports

1-Sep-23 1-Sep-23
1-Nov-23 1-Nov-23
Indian Coal Production + imports V Coal burn by power plants

1-Jan-24 1-Jan-24
Coal Consumption by power plants

1-Mar-24 1-Mar-24
1-May-24 1-May-24
Section - 5 Power Sector Review
Power Generation Review

India Electricity Generation • Amid the longest spell of heatwaves in the past 15
180,000 25.00% years, the power demand in North India surged to 89
170,000
160,000 20.00% GW (89,000 MW) on June 17, the highest ever for a
150,000 15.00% single day. To meet this demand, nearly 25%-30% of
140,000
130,000 10.00% power had to be “imported” from outside the region,
120,000
110,000 5.00% the Power Ministry said in a statement.
100,000 0.00%
90,000
80,000 -5.00%
• India’s power grid is divided into five regions:
Jun-22

Jun-23
Feb-22

Sep-22

Feb-23

Sep-23

Feb-24
Jul-22

Jul-23
Nov-22

Nov-23
Oct-22

Oct-23
Dec-22

Dec-23
Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24
May-22

May-23

May-24
Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24
Aug-22

Aug-23
Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24
northern, southern, western, eastern, and north-
Electricity (in Milli on KWH) Growth (YoY) eastern. India also imports electricity from Bhutan
and is an exporter to Nepal and Bangladesh.
India Coal based Power Generation
Domestic + Imported Coal Receipts Vs Coal Consumption • As of data available on March 31, the northern
90.00 region accounts for 113 GW or about 25% of India’s
80.00 total installed power capacity of 442 GW.
70.00

60.00

50.00

40.00

30.00
21

22

23
22

23

24
1

3
21

22

23
1

4
21

22

23
t-2

t-2

t-2
r-2

r-2

r-2

r-2
c-

c-

c-
g-

g-

g-
n-

n-

n-
b-

b-

b-
Oc

Oc

Oc
De

De

De
Ap

Ap

Ap

Ap
Au

Au

Au
Ju

Ju

Ju
Fe

Fe

Fe

Domesti c coal receipt Imported coal receipts Coal burn at power plants
Power Generation Review

Coal stocks V Coal burn by power plants • Despite its installed capacity exceeding demand,
160.00
140.00
power still needs to be imported from outside the
120.00
100.00
region as not all plants operate all the time and at
80.00
60.00
their optimal capacity and not all of the available
40.00 power can be instantly transmitted to where it is
20.00
- required. On Monday, for instance, a power outage
1-Jan-21

1-Jan-22

1-Jan-23

1-Jan-24
1-May-20

1-May-21

1-May-22

1-May-23

1-May-24
1-Mar-20

1-Mar-21

1-Mar-22

1-Mar-23

1-Mar-24
1-Sep-20

1-Sep-21

1-Sep-22

1-Sep-23
1-Jul-20

1-Jul-21

1-Jul-22

1-Jul-23
1-Nov-20

1-Nov-21

1-Nov-22

1-Nov-23
at the Delhi airport brought operations to a standstill
in the afternoon for nearly 30 minutes.
Total Pithead Stocks Coal Stock at Power plant s
Coal Consumption by power plants Despatch to Power utilities
• Most of the northern States continue to reel under
heatwaves, with Prayagraj in Uttar Pradesh reporting
Power Gegenration's coal use
(million metric tonnes)
a maximum temperature of 47.6 degrees Celsius on
90 Tuesday. The India Meteorological Department has
85
80
forecast no significant reprieve except for a slight dip
75 — on the back of light showers for a day — and an
70
65
increase in temperatures following it. The monsoon
60 is only expected to arrive in the northern States by
55
50 June-end, though a delay in its progress could push
the dates further.
23
23

23

4
3

23
3
23

24

4
23
3

4
3

4
t-2
r-2

r-2
-2

-2
-2

-2
2
l-2

v-2

c-
n-

n-
g-
n-
b-

p-

b-
ar

ar
ay

ay
Ju

Oc

De
Ap

Ap
No
Au
Ju
Ja

Ja
Fe

Se

Fe
M

M
M

Power utiliti es domestic coal Captive Power domestic coal Non coking coal imports
 100000
120000
140000
160000
180000

20000
40000
60000
80000

0
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Coal
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Power Generation Review

Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22

RES (Wind, Sol, Bio, Small hydro)

May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Lignite Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Hydro

Aug-22
Power Generation by source

Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Nuclear

Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Gas, Naptha, Diesel

Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Power Generation Review

Coal Power Generatuon and as a % of total • On May 30, India’s total power demand and
140000 90.00% fulfilment hit 250 GW, which is an all-time high.
80.00%
120000
70.00% • Amid the longest spell of heatwaves in the past 15
100000
80000
60.00%
50.00%
years, the power demand in North India surged to
60000 40.00% 89 GW (89,000 MW) on June 17, the highest ever
40000
30.00%
20.00%
for a single day. To meet this demand, nearly 25%-
20000 10.00% 30% of power had to be “imported” from outside
0 0.00%
the region, the Power Ministry said in a statement
Sep-20

Feb-22

Sep-22

Sep-23
Jun-22
Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-23
Nov-20

Nov-22

Nov-23
Dec-21
Oct-21

Oct-22
Jan-21

Jan-23

Jan-24
Apr-22
May-21

May-23

May-24
Mar-21

Mar-23

Mar-24
Aug-21

Aug-22

on Tuesday.
Coal Coal as % of total

Renewable Electricity as a % of total electricity generated • India’s power grid is divided into five regions:
25000 16.00%
northern, southern, western, eastern, and north-
20000
14.00%
eastern. India also imports electricity from Bhutan
12.00%

15000 10.00%
and is an exporter to Nepal and Bangladesh.
8.00%
10000 6.00% • As of data available on March 31, the northern
5000
4.00% region accounts for 113 GW or about 25% of
2.00%
India’s total installed power capacity of 442 GW.
0 0.00%
Sep-20

Feb-22

Sep-22

Sep-23
Jun-22
Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-23
Nov-20

Nov-22

Nov-23
Dec-21
Oct-21

Oct-22
Jan-21

Jan-23

Jan-24
Apr-22
May-21

May-23

May-24
Mar-21

Mar-23

Mar-24
Aug-21

Aug-22

RES (Wind, Sol, Bio, Small hydro) RES as % of Total

Power Generation Review

Spot Electrcity Market trends and prices • Despite its installed capacity exceeding demand,
14,000,000 12,000.00
power still needs to be imported from outside the
12,000,000 10,000.00
region as not all plants operate all the time and at
10,000,000 8,000.00

8,000,000 6,000.00
their optimal capacity and not all of the available
6,000,000 4,000.00
power can be instantly transmitted to where it is
4,000,000 2,000.00 required. On Monday, for instance, a power
2,000,000 - outage at the Delhi airport brought operations to
a standstill in the afternoon for nearly 30 minutes.
0

3
0
21

1
22

2
23

3
24
0

4
t-2

t-2

t-2

t-2
r-2

r-2

r-2

r-2

r-2
l-2

l-2

l-2

l-2
n-

n-

n-

n-
Ju

Ju

Ju

Ju
Oc

Oc

Oc

Oc
Ap

Ap

Ap

Ap

Ap
Ja

Ja

Ja

Ja
Purchase Bid (MWh) Sell Bid (MWh) MCP (Rs/MWh)
• Most of the northern States continue to reel
Spot Power prices last 30 days under heatwaves, with Prayagraj in Uttar Pradesh
450000
400000
7000
6000
reporting a maximum temperature of 47.6
350000 5000 degrees Celsius on Tuesday. The India
300000 4000
250000 3000 Meteorological Department has forecast no
200000 2000 significant reprieve except for a slight dip — on
150000 1000
100000 0 the back of light showers for a day — and an
increase in temperatures following it. The
25-05-2024
26-05-2024
27-05-2024
28-05-2024
29-05-2024
30-05-2024
31-05-2024
01-06-2024
02-06-2024
03-06-2024
04-06-2024
05-06-2024
06-06-2024
07-06-2024
08-06-2024
09-06-2024
10-06-2024
11-06-2024
12-06-2024
13-06-2024
14-06-2024
15-06-2024
16-06-2024
17-06-2024
18-06-2024
19-06-2024
20-06-2024
21-06-2024
22-06-2024
23-06-2024
24-06-2024

monsoon is only expected to arrive in the

Purchase Bid (MWh) Sell Bid (MWh) Wei ghted MCP (Rs/MWh) northern States by June-end, though a delay in its
progress could push the dates further.
Power Generation Review
• Thermal power is the mainstay of India’s power
• On May 30, India’s total power demand and
fulfilment hit 250 GW, which is an all-time high.
Several measures
• The Ministry said it was meeting increased
demands by ensuring that power plants relying on
imported coal were kept in operation, and the
bare minimum of plants were shut down for
maintenance work. It has also advised power
generation companies to keep their plants in a
“healthy condition” for optimal operation, while
hydropower stations have been advised to
conserve water during the daytime and dispense
the maximum possible power at night to ensure
uninterrupted power supply. Gas-fired power
plants would also be utilised to shore up power
demand, it said.
output, comprising about 55% of installed capacity.
About 90% of thermal capacity comes from coal
and the rest from gas. Wind and solar power
together make up about 30% of installed capacity
but because their availability is constrained by
natural causes, they cannot always be relied upon
to be a consistent source of on-demand power.
Section - 6 Cement Sector Review
Cement Sector Review

• Days after the Modi 3.0 pushed for affordable housing

Indian Cement Production
– both rural and urban – under the Prime Minister
45,000 35.00%
30.00% Awas Yojana scheme, cement-makers have announced
40,000
25.00% a ₹8-10 per bag price hike anticipating a pick-up in
35,000 20.00%
15.00%
demand, shrugging off the heat-wave and General
30,000
10.00% Election blues.
25,000 5.00%
0.00%
20,000

15,000
-5.00%
-10.00%
• Incidentally, while price hikes have been announced
company-wise and region-wise, they are yet to find
22

23
2

3
2

3
22

23

24
2

4
2

3
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2
l-2

l-2
v-2

v-2
n-

n-

n-
p-

p-
acceptance or register positively with dealers, market
ar

ar

ar
ay

ay
Ju

Ju
No

No
Ja

Ja

Ja
Se

Se
M

M
M

Cement (i n Thousand Tonnes) Growth (YoY)

sources said.
Cement industry fuel mix
(metric tonnes) • Cement-makers – between April and May – made at
4,500,000
4,000,000
least two attempts to implement price hikes of ₹8-10
3,500,000 per bag or more. The first major hike, announced in
3,000,000
2,500,000 April, had to be rolled back in view of lower-than-
2,000,000
1,500,000
expected demand.
1,000,000
500,000
- • Advancement of monsoons across major parts of India
in the coming two-weeks (July 6 onwards) is expected
23
M 3

23

M 4
3
3
23

24
23
M 3

M 4
23
3

4
3

4
t-2
r-2

r-2
-2

-2
-2

-2
2

2
v-2
l-2
n-

n-
c-
g-
n-
b-

p-

b-
ar

ar
ay

ay
Ju

Oc

De
Ap

Ap
No
Au
Ja

Ja
Ju
Fe

Se

Fe

Pet coke Import Non coking coal Import Domestic coal supplies
to create further questions on sustainability of these
price hikes.
Cement Sector Review
In metric tonnes
• Hours after taking office for a third consecutive term,
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new Cabinet
announced its first major policy decision to provide
assistance for the construction of an additional 30
million rural and urban houses (affordable housing)
under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY).

• Market brokerage firm, Motilal Oswal, said average

cement price (trade) was flat month-on-month (m-o-
m) in May, (and down 1 per cent over Q4-FY24 exit
prices).

India Pet Coke Imports • “However, price hikes of ₹8-10/bag have been
1,800,000 announced across regions in June after several failed
1,600,000 attempts. We estimate cement volume to grow 5-6
1,400,000
1,200,000 per cent m-o-m, driven by the housing and
1,000,000
800,000
infrastructure segments,” the firm said in a report,
600,000 adding that the all-India average cement price in Q1-
400,000
200,000
FY25 (to date) is estimated to be flat on a sequential
- basis.
22

3
2

3
2

3
22

23

24
2

4
2

4
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
2
v-2

v-2
l-2

l-2
n-

n-

n-
p-

p-
ar

ar

ar
ay

ay

ay
Ju

Ju
No

No
Ja

Ja

Ja
Se

Se
M

M
M

Petcoke
Cement Sector Review

• So far, domestic pet-coke price declined 6 per cent m-o-m to ₹12,439/tonne in June; import prices was down
3 per cent m-o-m to $107/tonne.

• In some markets, including Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh in North India and in West Indian regions, non-trade
prices are up ₹15-30/bag, thus narrowing the price gap between trade and non-trade, Motilal Oswal said in its
report.

• In the eastern, western and central regions, price-rise announcements are in the range of ₹10/bag; while in
the northern and southern markets, price rise is around ₹8-9/bag.

• Market sources say cement demand is estimated to be subdued in the near term due to the advancement of
monsoons. However, demand should rebound strongly in H2FY25, supported by housing and infrastructure
sectors, metro connectivity projects, slum redevelopment schemes, among others.

• Industry volume growth is pegged at 5-6 per cent y-o-y in H1FY25, and 8-9 per cent y-o-y in H2FY25.
Section - 7 Steel Sector Review
Steel Sector Review
Indian Steel Production • India’s steel trade deficit has widened, as the country
14,000 25.00% continues to be a net importer of the metal, with a
13,000
20.00%
consistent increase in shipments from China.
12,000
11,000 15.00% • According to a Steel Ministry report accessed
10,000
9,000 10.00% by businessline, imports in April and May were valued at
8,000
5.00%
₹118,31 billion ($1,419 million). Exports were valued at
7,000 ₹75.47 billion ($905 million).
6,000 0.00%

• In volume terms, imports stood at 1.3 mt (up 37 per cent

22

3
2

3
2

3
22

23

24
2

4
2

3
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

2
v-2

v-2
l-2

l-2
n-

n-

n-
p-

p-
ar

ar

ar
ay

ay
Ju

Ju
y-o-y), outpacing exports at 0.94 mt (down 40 per cent y-
No

No
Ja

Ja

Ja
Se

Se
M

M
M

Steel (in Thousand Tonnes) Growth (YoY)

o-y) for these two months.
Indian Imports of Coking Coal, PCI and Met Coke • Flat products accounted for 95 per cent share of imports,
10,000,000 up 42 per cent, while non-flat imports were down 8.9 per
9,000,000
8,000,000
cent. On the other hand, flat product exports (87 per cent
7,000,000 of the export basket) were down over 42 per cent, while
6,000,000 non-flat exports were down 11 per cent,.
5,000,000
4,000,000 • According to a market source, exports remain under
3,000,000
2,000,000
pressure. Chinese “dumping” and re-routing of their
offerings through other countries into India continues,
22

3
2

3
2

3
22

23

24
2

4
2

4
-2

-2

-2
2
-2

-2

-2
l-2

l-2
v-2

v-2

even as FTA renegotiations are underway with some of

n-

n-

n-
p-

p-
ay

ay

ay
ar

ar

ar
Ju

Ju
No

No
Ja

Ja

Ja
Se

Se
M

M
M

Coking Coal PCI Met Coke these countries.

Steel Sector Review
In metric tonnes
• While on the one hand, this has impacted domestic
prices, on the other, export offers continue to be
impacted in key markets in West Asia,” the market
participant said.
• Chinese dumping
• China continues to be the largest seller of the metal to
India, displacing traditional markets such as Japan and
Korea.
• Chinese shipments in these two months have risen 79 per
In metric tonnes
cent y-o-y to 0.41 mt, valued at $482 million, which is a 62
per cent rise. Chinese shipments were at elevated levels
even in 2023, said sources.
• Nearly 43 per cent of the shipments from Chine are of
alloy and stainless steel at 0.174 mt, while the remaining
0.233 mt consists of steel plates, bars and rods, galvanised
corrugated sheets and galvanised pipes, among others.
• Due to over-capacity, the Chinese steel sector has been
putting pressure on Indian exports by focussing more on
competitively priced steel globally.
Steel Sector Review
Steel & Sponge Iron Coal Usage • Data released by consultancy firm BigMint reveals that
(million metric tonnes) India is amongst the top five countries where Chinese
14
12 shipments (exports from the nation) have gone up.
10
8
Between January and May, 1.10 mt of steel shipments
6 have been received, up 51 per cent y-o-y. In the year-ago
4
2 period, metal shipments were around 0.73 mt.
0
• Other countries where Chinese shipments have increased
23
23

23

24
3

3
23

24

4
23
3

4
3

4
23

t-2
r-2

r-2
-2

-2
-2

-2
l-2

v-2
n-

n-
c-
n-
b-

g-

p-

b-
ar

ar
ay

ay
Ju

Oc
Ap

Ap
De
No
are Vietnam (5.51 mt, up 89 per cent y-o-y), followed by
Ju

Au
Ja

Ja
Fe

Se

Fe
M

M
M

M
Domesti c Coal usage
Met Coke Imports
Anthracite Imports
Non coking coal Imports
Coking Coal Imports
PCI imports
Brazil (1.45 mt, up 60 per cent y-o-y) and the UAE (2.18
Pet coke Imports
mt, up 53 per cent) for the January–May period of this
year
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