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The European Debt Crisis
How Portugal Navigated
the post-2008 Financial
Crisis
The European
Debt Crisis
How Portugal Navigated the post-2008
Financial Crisis
João Moreira Rato
NOVA IMS
Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Lisbon, Portugal
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer
Nature Switzerland AG 2020
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of
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The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
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The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
To Inês and to my sons, Francisco and Luís, for their constant
support and patience
Foreword
Greece looms large in the perception of the European debt crisis, with
Athens the natural focal point of attention. Yet it was far from the only
country to find itself against the ropes in a multi-faceted, multi-pronged
and existential crisis for the common currency project. Portugal was often
the forgotten front, but its success in navigating the tumultuous period
was no less important. João Moreira Rato’s detailed exploration of how
Portugal found itself in dire straits, how it navigated the mess and ulti-
mately managed to slowly rebuild investor confidence regain access to
international capital markets in 2013 is therefore a vital contribution to
the ongoing post-mortem of the European debt crisis—with lessons we
can all learn from.
vii
Contents
1 Background 1
2 Warming Up 17
3 Investors 35
7 Final Push 97
8 Success113
Index127
ix
CHAPTER 1
Background
During the first decade of the twenty-first century, in the happy days pre-
ceding the Global Financial Crisis, Portugal had been spending beyond its
means. It had been accumulating a high stock of debt vis-à-vis external
borrowers. Foreign banks, insurance companies, asset managers and mul-
tilateral institutions like the European Investment Bank (“EIB”) had been
accumulating Portuguese private and public debt. The Portuguese econ-
omy was depending on external credit to guarantee a certain level of
domestic economic growth. Portuguese households were buying their
houses with recourse to foreign money. Home ownership increased at a
rapid pace. Local banks would aggressively finance mortgages, repackag-
ing them into securitization vehicles; the vehicles would then issue bonds
and those bonds were then placed with international investors. The banks
were also active in financing corporations, a good share of which either
were developers or offered real estate as collateral for their borrowings.
The banks were financing the gap between credit and deposits by issuing
bonds they would then sell in the international markets. Portugal’s eco-
nomic growth was meek when compared with other Eurozone countries
but even these modest levels of growth were being sustained by external
investors in Portuguese bonds and loans. These bonds took different
names: mortgage-backed securities, SME securitization bonds, senior
bank bonds, subordinated bank bonds, Portuguese government bonds. A
good share of these bonds were originated by the domestic banking sector
and then placed abroad with the assistance of global investment banks.
The Portuguese banks had the highest share of credit not financed by
deposits in Europe. To finance the difference they came regularly to the
international markets with bond offerings; some of these bond programs
took specific domestic names, like the name of a Portuguese horse breed
or the name of Portuguese navigators like Magellan. As in Hollywood
blockbusters, they were issued in series, I, II, III, IV and so on.
In parallel, public sector corporations were financing a good share of
their capital expenditures with recourse to external lenders that were bank-
ing on the Portuguese State’s implicit guarantee. The railways, the subway
companies, counted on loans from the EIB but also from some foreign
banks specialized in public sector loans, like Dexia and Depfa, to keep
their investment levels. Roads were being built with borrowed money
originating in the same sources. By 2016, and following the building pro-
gram preceding 2011, Portugal’s quality of road infrastructure was classi-
fied by the World Economic Forum as the ninth best in the world, just
ahead of Denmark, Taiwan and Finland.
1 BACKGROUND 3
Portugal had been accumulating external deficits since the second half
of the 1990s but these accelerated with the turn of the century. This, of
course, came in tandem with the accumulation of private credit financed
by foreign investors. As a consequence, external debt kept accumulating.
The economy was addicted to these private external sources of funds.
Households needed them to keep consuming, corporations to finance
their new projects, and in some cases to cover their persistent losses, and
public sector companies to keep investing and building more roads.
In 2003, the government tried to engineer a slowdown but with growth
already quite fragile, it did not persist in its effort. So when the 2008
financial crisis (“the Global Financial Crisis”) closed some of the private
bond and loan markets that the Portuguese banks were using, Portugal
ran the risk of being forced into an uncontrolled adjustment that could
derail the economy very sharply. Without the availability of external financ-
ing sources, imports would have to contract markedly causing a possibly
catastrophic adjustment in domestic consumption and investment.
Luckily for the government of the time, the government bond market
remained open and the European Central Bank (“ECB”) started to play a
bigger role in the European financial markets. As the financing of domes-
tic banks by external private investors decreased sharply, the financing of
the Portuguese external deficits started to rely on the Target 2 balances at
the ECB, central bank credits that replaced private flows from surplus
countries toward deficit countries. These funds from the ECB counterbal-
anced the reduction in external private financing of the domestic banking
sector. They kept the external financing flowing: as a measure of external
dependence, the Portuguese current account deficit reached its peak in
2008. This allowed the Portuguese economy just to muddle through in
2008, with an almost flat economic growth as the access to foreign funds
was maintained. As we have seen, these flows were now different in their
composition. In 2009 the Portuguese economy was contracting almost by
3% but by 2010 it was already experiencing 1.9% growth. How was this
recovery possible given the circumstances?
Given the importance of the role that the Target 2 system played in
keeping external funding to the Portuguese economy after the Global
Financial Crisis, I will try to explain how the system works in a simple way.
Consider a Portuguese corporate that wants to acquire a new fleet of
Volkswagens from Germany. The corporate will ask its bank in Portugal to
4 J. M. RATO
1
Troika: name given to the group of three institutions involved in the design and monitor-
ing of the assistance programs in Europe during the peripheral debt crisis. The group con-
sisted of the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”), the European Commission and
the ECB.
1 BACKGROUND 5
which their usual financing sources had dried. This kept the economy
going, surviving the threat of a sharp contraction, as the government and
the public sector companies engineered more spending, with the corre-
sponding external deficits financed by the Target 2 system.
As a consequence of these policies, direct government debt increased
during the period due to the accumulation of deficits. In addition, the
State accumulated debt outside of the direct public debt perimeter through
public sector companies, as a good share of them were loss making. During
this period, the government embarked on a massive school building pro-
gram and continued to build roads and tunnels. From 2007, before the
financial crisis, to 2010, the public debt in percentage of GDP increased
by more than 35 percentage points.
As expected, the market conditions in which this debt was placed were
getting worse and worse, in a process that mimicked what happened with
other peripheral Europe sovereigns following the Global Financial Crisis.
After the disclosure of a massive budget deficit in 2009, Greece had
requested support from the Troika in April 2010. In the meantime,
Ireland, suffering from the aftershocks of the Global Financial Crisis and
its impact on the banks, saw a massive accumulation in public debt and
had to ask for external support from the Troika in November 2010. The
yields on Portuguese government bonds, or the interest the State had to
pay annually to investors on freshly issued bonds, started 2010 close to 4%
but ended the year close to 7%. The fact that rating agencies started to
reduce the rating attached to these sovereign bonds did not help.
In early January 2009, Portugal was considered a AA quality by the
three most widely used rating agencies, Moody’s, Fitch and S&P, close to
the current rating notation for France. During that month, S&P down-
graded Portugal to A+ and in March 2011 to BBB−, just above investment
grade. Below investment grade, the rating is considered speculative grade,
and a proportion of buy and hold institutional investors in government
bonds, like insurance companies, pension funds and more conservative
mutual funds, become constrained by their own investment rules, in their
capacity to hold the bonds in the portfolios. Potentially, there will be a lot
of forced sellers of the bonds at that point. Some of these constraints on
investors’ capacity to hold speculative grade bonds depend on at least two
rating agencies. In consequence, most investors become forced sellers
when two agencies downgrade the sovereign from investment grade to
speculative grade, although they may start selling in anticipation.
6 J. M. RATO
2
Rating agencies attribute grades to issuers according to their views of their credit quality,
based on quantitative and subjective criteria. The highest quality starts at AAA for S&P and
Fitch and Aaa for Moody’s and decreases to AA+ and Aa1 and then all the way to C if the
issuer has not defaulted in its obligations.
1 BACKGROUND 7
3
The cash notional, or reference amount on the bond, is repaid at maturity.
8 J. M. RATO
4
The Greek government deficit was also revised upward in 2010 in what concerned the
years 2006–2008.
1 BACKGROUND 9
a high and growing stock of external debt and a high and growing stock
of public debt. To deal with both, the program had to be designed to
decrease both deficits, external and public, to induce a slowdown in the
accumulation of public and external debt and to eventually set the country
in the direction of sustained debt reduction.
With these objectives in mind, the program was structured around
three pillars: balanced fiscal consolidation, frontloaded structural reforms
and financial sector stabilization. The third one was crucial to ensure that
State intervention in the banks would be limited and would not weigh
disorderly on public expenditure and public debt. The second one aimed
at strengthening the competitiveness of the Portuguese economy and cor-
porate productivity, to boost exports and correct long-term trade imbal-
ances. Plainly, the program targeted budget deficits (there are explicit
quantitative targets in the program) and external funding needs. Note that
on the third pillar the program mentioned the aim of re-opening access to
interbank and bond markets for banks. If successful, Portugal could
decrease its use of funding coming from the ECB.
The program size was €78 billion, with one-third coming from the
IMF and two-thirds from the European Union. As is usual in these pro-
grams, the cash would be delivered in tranches: €38 billion in 2011, €25
billion in 2012, €10 billion in 2013, €5 billion in 2014. The financing
included the full repayment for all the bonds up to June 2013. From then
on, market access was expected.
Following the program’s announcement, things got worse before they
got better. The prices of the Portuguese government bonds underwent a
more prolonged period of depreciation up to the start of 2012. The annual
yield demanded by investors to buy a five-year Portuguese government
bond in the secondary market went over 20% in January 2012. Remember
how this compares with close to 6.4% for the five-year bonds issued in
February 2011!
The market underperformance was partly due to a change in paradigm
in Europe. Following the negative performance of the Greek program, as
Greece seemed to have fallen into a negative economic spiral, the need for
a second bailout was becoming evident. In Greece, a deeper recession was
increasing the sovereign’s financing needs, as tax revenues suffered and
social contributions grew as a consequence of the higher rhythm of domes-
tic economy contraction. These ever growing financing needs demanded
more financial support from the Troika. As part of this second program,
European authorities were pushing for a haircut on private sector holdings
10 J. M. RATO
5
For a chronology, check “The Greek debt restructuring: an autopsy” by Zettelmeyer,
Trebesch and Gulati.
6
Check Roberto De Santis, “A measure of redenomination risk”, ECB Working Paper
Series, April 2015.
1 BACKGROUND 11
The same press release stated: “it is the increasing probability that
Portugal will not be able to borrow at sustainable rates in the capital mar-
kets in the second half of 2013,” which was a pre-condition for the assis-
tance program to be agreed, and was one of the drivers for this decision.
And, in case that risk becomes real, given what was happening in Greece,
Moody’s was expecting that private investors would have to be called in.
According to Moody’s, this new precedent generated by the Greek PSI “is
significant not only because it increases the economic risks facing current
investors, but also because it may discourage new private sector lending
going forward and reduces the likelihood that Portugal will soon be able
to regain market access on sustainable terms.”
As the negotiations surrounding the voluntary losses to be taken by
banks, insurance companies and other private sector investors, which were
fundamental for Greece to achieve a second bailout, dragged, S&P took
the decision to downgrade simultaneously the rating of nine Eurozone
countries including Portugal. S&P stated: “today’s rating actions are pri-
marily driven by our assessment that the policy initiatives that have been
taken by European policymakers in recent weeks may be insufficient to
fully address ongoing systemic stresses in the eurozone.”8 As part of this
rating action, France was stripped for the first time of its AAA rating by
S&P. The rating agency justified its concerns by expressing its doubts that
Moody’s investor service press release for the rating action taken on 5 July 2011.
7
9
Moody’s press release of 13 February, “Moody’s adjusts ratings of 9 European sovereigns
to capture downside risks.”
1 BACKGROUND 13
I
By far the most interesting and generally the most significant
developments in pianoforte music since the time of Schumann,
Chopin, and Liszt are those which have taken place in France. Not
only have the French composers greatly enriched the literature for
the instrument with compositions that have a value beyond that
which fashion temporarily lends them; they have refreshed it as well
with new ideas of harmony, and effects, which if they are not
essentially new, are newly extended and applied.
The titles throughout all his music are original. Some are easily
understood. ‘The Wind’ and the ‘Railroad’ for instance are fully
explained by the music. In fact the realism of the latter does not stop
with movement. There is to be heard even the pounding of wheels,
the puffing and the whistle of the engine. But what is the meaning of
others, of Neige et lave, Ma chère liberté and Ma chère servitude,
Salut, cendre du pauvre, Fais dodo and J’étais endormie, mais mon
cœur reveillait? On the whole these fantastic titles suggest less the
union of music with poetry or self-conscious sentiment than a sort of
rational, positive realism. There is little in the music that is vague or
sensuous. Most of it is objective rather than imaginative. He has
neither the fire of Liszt, nor the emotion of Chopin, and his
compositions are both spiritually and technically independent of
theirs. He was a terrific worker and he lived apart from men.
Marmontel wrote of him with great respect and some affection.
Oskar Bie thinks of him as a misanthrope. One can hardly speak of
misanthropic music; yet the quality which distinguishes Alkan’s
music is something the quality of an implacable irony. It is strong
stuff, and is likely to prove more logical in itself than any appreciation
or disparagement of it can be made.
CËSAR FRANCK
II
But Alkan’s music must be taken as the manifestation of an
independent spirit, French in its directness, rather than as a source
of stimulation or strength to a further development of a distinctly
French school of pianoforte music. Such a school first centres about
César Franck, who, though he, too, lived in retirement and in an
obscurity which the general public did not attempt to penetrate,
exercised a powerful influence on music in Paris. His compositions
are relatively few in number. There are but two considerable works
for pianoforte alone, and only three more for pianoforte and
orchestra. These, however, are of great beauty and two at least are
masterpieces in music. These are the ‘Prelude, Chorale and Fugue’
for pianoforte alone, and the Variations Symphoniques for pianoforte
and orchestra. The other three, which have elements of greatness
but seem to fall short of absolute perfection, are the ‘Prelude, Aria,
and Finale’ for pianoforte alone, and two symphonic poems for
pianoforte and orchestra suggested by poems of Victor Hugo, Les
Eloïdes and Les Djinns.
On the other hand, there are many effects which are brilliantly
pianistic. The flowing figures in the Prelude of the ‘Prelude, Chorale
and Fugue’ are purely pianistic. The tremendous octave passages in
the Finale need the distinct, percussive sound of the pianoforte. And
the upper notes of the Chorale melody, both when it is given alone
and when it is combined with the fugue theme, must have a ringing,
bell-like quality which only the pianoforte can produce.
III
At the basis of the two greatest pianoforte works of César Franck,
one discerns a classical foundation. The harmonies, it is true, are
Romantic and strange; but the ideals are traditional. In the matter of
form there is less a departure from old principles than a further
development of them. They present a few new complications of
structure; but as far as the pianoforte is concerned they have little
new to show in the matter of effect. Their peculiar sonority is that of
the organ, and remains not wholly proper to the pianoforte. On the
whole, then, the music is easily related to that of Beethoven, of Liszt,
and of Wagner. There is no striking departure from that road to which
Beethoven may be said to have pointed.
Nor does one find, on the whole, less traditional loyalty in the
pianoforte compositions of Franck’s pupil, Vincent d’Indy. These are
not numerous. There are only a few sets of short pieces, and but two
works of length. The little sonata, opus 9, is in classical form. There
are three short waltzes in a set called Helvetia, opus 9; a Serenade,
Choral grave, Scherzetto, and Agitato, opus 16, one or two pieces in
classical dance forms, and three little romances in the style of
Schumann, opus 30. Of the last the third is a most successful
imitation of Schumann, resembling passages from the Kreisleriana in
spirit and in technique. None of these short pieces, however, calls for
more than mention, except as they all show a clear but not
distinguished traditional and simple treatment of the keyboard. There
is hardly the harmonic freedom of either Wagner or Franck in them.
The two long pieces are far more distinctly original. The first of these
is a set of three fanciful pieces called Poëmes des Montagnes. The
first of these—Le chant des bruyères—is divided into five parts: the
song of the heather, or the heath, mists, a touch of Weber, a theme
which is to be found in all three movements called La bien-aimée,
and finally the song of the heath again, this time in the distance. The
second movement is again subdivided, this time into dances amid
which la bien-aimée makes a momentary appearance; and in the last
movement—Plein-air—one finds a promenade, thoughts of great
trees (hêtres et pins) on the side of the mountain, la bien-aimée, a bit
of calm before a burst of wind, finally a pair of lovers united. At the
beginning and at the end of the series there are a few broken
chords, vaguely styled Harmonies, and at the very end again there is
a reminiscence of the theme of la bien-aimée.
One cannot but find the whole series closely akin to Schumann. The
romanticism is the romanticism of Schumann, carried a step into the
open air and among the mountains, of his devotion to which d’Indy
has left many a proof in music. The fleeting touch of Weber, and
especially that d’Indy should have written Weber’s name over the
measure in which it falls, is again characteristic of the composer who
introduced Paganini and Chopin into his Carnaval. The identification
of a theme with a beloved one is another instance. But even more
definite than these tokens of a certain romanticism is the treatment
of the piano, and even the nature of much of the thematic material.
Le chant des bruyères and La bien-aimée are in the mold of
Schumann. The Valse grotesque recalls in rhythm some of the
Davidsbündler and the first of these Danses rhythmiques is like parts
of the Pantalon and Colombine of the Carnaval.
On the other hand, there is something original and new in the section
called Brouillard. The general mistiness of the harmonies, the long
holding of the pedals with consequent vague obscurity of sound, and
the irregular line of clear points in a sort of melody that is drawn
against this inarticulate accompanying murmur, these indicate new
ventures in pianoforte style. The rhythmical irregularity of the first of
the dances and the irregularity in the form and recurrence of sections
are further signs of the advent of something rich and strange. In fact
the whole work loses somewhat by the frequent suggestion of bold
experiment, and is hardly to be considered equal to the traditional
standard of music, as represented by Schumann, nor sufficiently
successful to establish a new one. Barring the Brouillard, the
treatment of the keyboard lacks distinction.
Far, far different must be the verdict on the Sonata in E, opus 63.
Here, though one still finds a classical ideal of form, there are bold,
clashing harmonies, and endless complexities of rhythm. The
scoring is tremendous, the effect big as an orchestra. The sonata is
in three movements, all of which represent the development of one
central idea. The first movement, which is preceded by a long and
fiery introduction, is made up of a series of variations on this central
idea. A subsidiary idea, which, as in the ‘Symphonic Variations’ of
Franck, was suggested in the introduction, is woven into the music
here and there. The complicated second movement, in 5/4 time,
constantly suggests the subsidiary motives of the first; and in the
last, which shows the broad plan of the classical sonata form, the
theme of the first movement finds a full and glorious expression.
IV
None of the French composers has written more for the pianoforte
than Gabriel Fauré. In his music, too, there is a strong element of
tradition, though as a harmonist he is perhaps more spontaneously
original than d’Indy. He prefers to work in short forms, and he avoids
titles of detailed significance. He has written eleven Barcarolles, ten
or more Nocturnes, nearly as many Impromptus, a set of eight
Preludes, published as opus 103, and a few pieces of nondescript
character including dances and romances. The impression made by
a glance over the pages of this considerable amount of music is one
of great sameness. Fauré’s style is delicate and well adjusted to the
keyboard but there is little to observe in it that is strikingly original.
Nor do the pieces give proof of much development in technique or in
means of expression. There is little trace of the exquisite
impressionism of the songs. The pianoforte music is hardly more
than pleasing, and is only rarely brilliant.
Finally, after mentioning Pierné, for the sake of a set of short pieces
in delicate style, Pour mes petits amis, and Emanuel Chabrier for the
sake of the Bourrée fantastique, we come to the two men whose
work for the piano has enchanted the world: Claude Debussy and
Maurice Ravel. So far as the pianoforte is concerned, theirs is the
music which has created a new epoch since the time of Liszt and
Chopin, which has signalized the leadership of France in the art of
music.
V
For a discussion of the general musical art of Debussy the reader is
referred to the third volume of this series. His system of harmony
and scales has there been explained. Here we will regard him as a
composer for the pianoforte and attempt only a brief analysis of his
pianoforte style and an appreciation of a few of his compositions. His
pianoforte style has been no little influenced by his conception of
harmony which admits chords of the seventh and ninth among the
consonances. The pianoforte being essentially a harmonic
instrument, composers have spent a great part of their skill in
devising rapidly moving figures which would keep its harmonies in
vibration. Such harmonies have either constituted a music in
themselves, or have furnished a vibrant background behind a
melody or an interweaving of several melodies. The shape of the
figures has been determined by harmony and the figures have been
blended into a general effect by the use of the pedal. One of the
most prominent characteristics of Chopin’s style was the intrinsically
melodious conformation of many of such figures. Hence there is a
suggestion of polyphony in his music; and hence, too, the pedalling
of his music must be most delicately and skillfully done.
With Liszt, on the other hand, such figures rarely had this melodious
significance. They were founded rather flatly on the notes of chords
or on the scale. Hence a mass of notes with little or no individuality.
Such we shall find many of Debussy’s figures to be, and it is indeed
easy to say that there would have been no Debussy had there been
no Liszt. Not only this density, which in the case of Debussy may be
more properly called opaqueness, of figures; but also the free use of
the arms over the keyboard point to a relation of the style of the one
to that of the other. But Debussy’s style is in two features at least
sharply differentiated from that of Liszt.
He will fill up a whole measure with notes that find their reason only
in the vague sound of the next measure, as here in La cathédrale
engloutie:
Note also that his spacing of chords, and particularly his strange
doubling of parts, brings overtones into prominence. One hears not
so much a doubling of parts on the keyboard as an accompanying
shadow of sound which is, as it were, cast by them. Witness the
choral passages in La cathédrale engloutie, and the treatment of
chords in Et la lune descend sur le temple qui fut. Here, at the
beginning, one notices too the inclusion within the chord itself of
notes which may properly be considered overtones.