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 TERRORISM
WHAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO KNOW®
 TERRORISM
WHAT EVERYONE NEEDS TO KNOW®

TODD SANDLER

1
 3
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers
the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education
by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University
Press in the UK and certain other countries.

“What Everyone Needs to Know” is a registered trademark

of Oxford University Press.

Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press

198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America.

© Oxford University Press 2018

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in

a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the
prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted
by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction
rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the
above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the
address above.

You must not circulate this work in any other form

and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Sandler, Todd, author.
Title: Terrorism: what everyone needs to know / Todd Sandler.
Description: New York : Oxford University Press, [2018] |
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2017058668 (print) | LCCN 2018000428 (ebook) |
ISBN 9780190845865 (updf) | ISBN 9780190845872 (epub) |
ISBN 9780190845858 (pbk.) | ISBN 9780190845841 (hardcover)
Subjects: LCSH: Terrorism. | Terrorism—Prevention.
Classification: LCC HV6431 (ebook) | LCC HV6431.S2553 2018 (print) |
DDC 363.325—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017058668

1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2
Paperback printed by LSC Communications, United States of America
Hardback printed by Bridgeport National Bindery, Inc., United States of America
To Tristan
 CONTENTS

PREFACE XIII
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS XIX

1 A Primer on Terrorism 1

What Is Terrorism? 1
What Tactics Are Used by Terrorists? 2
How Does Transnational Terrorism Differ from Domestic Terrorism? 4
Why Should We Be Concerned about Terrorism? 6
How Likely Are You to Be a Victim of a Terrorist Attack? 8
What Is the Difference between Terrorism and Other Forms
of Political Violence? 9
Is Terrorism a New Phenomenon? 10
How Has Terrorism Changed since 1878 and the Rise of the Anarchists? 12
How Has Terrorism Changed since 1968? 14
Are Terrorists Rational? 19
Why Is Game Theory an Appropriate Tool to Analyze Terrorism and
Counterterrorism? 20
Why Is There a Need for Empirical Studies on Terrorism? 21
Is Terrorism Successful? 22
viii Contents

2 Causes of Terrorism 24

What Are the Main Causes of Terrorism? 24

Is Globalization a Cause of Transnational Terrorism? 26
Does Poverty Cause Terrorism? 28
What Is the Relationship between Terrorism and Education? 31
Is Income Inequality a Driver of Terrorism? 31
Has Religion Been a Driver of Terrorism since the Start of the 1990s? 33
Are Domestic and Transnational Terrorism Driven by the Same Causes? 34
Are Foreign Policy Decisions a Driver of Transnational Terrorism? 36
Does Immigration Foster Transnational Terrorism? 37
Does Democracy Facilitate or Inhibit Terrorism? 39
What Is the Role of Failed States in Terrorism? 43
What Is the Role of the Media in Promoting Terrorism? 43

3 Role of Terrorist Groups 46

What Is a Terrorist Group? 46

What Are the Alternative Types of Terrorist Groups? 49
How Do Terrorist Groups Attract and Retain Members? 51
What Is the Role of Service Provision by Terrorist Groups? 53
Why Do Some Terrorist Groups Resort to Suicide Terrorism, While
Others Do Not? 54
What Are the Major Sources of Support for Terrorist Groups? 56
What Are the Role and Implications of State Sponsorship
of Terrorist Groups? 57
How Do Terrorist Groups End? 59
What Are the Determinants of Terrorist Group Survival? 61
What Are the Determinants of Alternative Ways That Terrorist
Groups End? 63
How Do Terrorist Groups Organize Themselves? 65
What Are Some of the Components of Terrorist Groups? 66
Is There a Control Dilemma in Terrorist Groups? 67
 Contents ix

4 Effectiveness of Counterterrorism 70

What Are the Primary Tools of Counterterrorism? 70

How Effective Are Proactive and Defensive Measures in Curbing
Transnational Terrorism? 74
Why Is Effective Counterterrorism More Difficult for Transnational
Than for Domestic Terrorism? 77
Is There a Logical Sequence to the Application of Proactive and
Defensive Measures? 79
Are There Other Forms of Transference of Attacks? 79
Are There Other Means of Counterterrorism? 81
Do Retaliatory Raids Work to Curb Terrorism? 82
Can Foreign Aid Be Used to Effectively Address Terrorism? 84
What Is the General Prognosis for International Cooperation? 85
Are UN Conventions and Resolutions Effective against Terrorism? 86
Can International Efforts Limit Terrorist Financing? 87
Is Information Adequately Shared among Countries in the Fight
against Terrorism? 89
Should Concessions Be Made to Terrorist Kidnappers? 90
How Has the Department of Homeland Security Contributed
to Counterterrorism? 91

5 Asymmetries and Terrorism 93

Why Are Asymmetries Important for Terrorism? 93

What Is Asymmetric Warfare and How Does It Apply to Terrorism? 94
Why Are Terrorist Groups Better Able to Cooperate Than Targeted
Governments? 96
Who Are Better Informed about Their Adversaries? 99
What Target Asymmetries Are Associated with Terrorism? 100
Are There Cost Asymmetries between Terrorists and Governments? 101
Is There a Timing Asymmetry? 102
How Do Weakest-​Link and Best-​Shot Actions Influence
Counterterrorism? 104
x Contents

Is There an Identity Asymmetry? 105

Is There an Asymmetry in Restraint? 106
What Are the Organizational Asymmetries between Terrorist Groups
and Governments? 107
Is Size an Advantage for the Adversaries? 109
What Is Constituency Asymmetry? 111

6 Economic Consequences of Terrorism 112

Why Do Some Terrorist Groups Try to Create Economic Losses? 112

What Are Direct versus Indirect Costs Associated with
Terrorist Attacks? 115
Do Economic Losses Differ between Domestic and Transnational
Terrorist Attacks? 117
How Much Did 9/​11 Cost in Terms of Economic Losses? 118
How Did the US Government’s Policies Cushion the Impact of 9/​11? 119
Do Terrorist Attacks Affect Stock Markets? 122
What Are the Main Macroeconomic Consequences of
Terrorist Attacks? 124
What Types of Targeted Countries Are Most Affected Economically
by Terrorism? 125
What Are the Microeconomic Sectoral Consequences of Terrorism? 127
What Are Some General Principles Regarding the Economic Impact
of Terrorism? 130

7 The Future of Terrorism 133

How Are Forecasts about Terrorism Made? 133

Could Forecasts Have Been Used to Predict 9/​11? 136
Why Is Human Intelligence on Terrorism So Essential? 137
What Is Cyberterrorism and Does It Pose a Future Threat? 138
Will Terrorist Attacks Remain Mostly Low Tech? 140
 Contents xi

What Is Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) Terrorism? 142

Are Mass-​Casualty Attacks Involving WMD Terrorism Likely? 144
What Are the Hot Spots for Future Terrorist Attacks? 147
What Is the Shape of Terrorism to Come? 147

NOTES 151
INDEX 177
 PREFACE

On a clear, bright morning on July 7, 2005, at 9:40 a.m., my wife

and I stepped out of our hotel on Montague Street, London, to
make our way to Russell Square Tube station to catch a train.
The day before I had purchased higher-​priced Underground
passes that would have allowed us to take a train before
9:00 a.m., so that we could get an early start. This plan went
awry when my wife decided to take a shower and start the
day later than planned. Well, it was our summer holiday.
As we reached Russell Square, there was a deafening blast,
which was the suicide-​bomb blast on a double-​decker bus at
Tavistock Place, a few blocks away, that killed thirteen people.
The usual tranquil Russell Square was a scene of bedlam with
police cars speeding through the park, police shouting at us
to get away, and emergency vehicles everywhere outside the
park’s wrought iron fence. As we emerged from the square’s
exit nearest to the Tube stop, we saw dazed people, some with
soot-​covered faces, exiting the underground station.
Many thoughts flooded my mind: This is the face of
terrorism! These stunned people could have been us, since
the train coming from Kings Cross to Russell Square, which
exploded between stations at 8:50 a.m., was the one that we
had planned to take the day before. Although we would not
have been on the train had we stuck to our original plan, we
would have been on the platform to experience the sound of
xiv Preface

the blast, the screams of the victims, and the smoke filling the
tunnel. To escape the smoke, we would have had to walk up the
171 steps of the spiral staircase of one of the deepest stations on
the London Underground. Opened in 1906, almost a hundred
years before, Russell Square Station does not have escalators,
and the lifts would not have been advisable to take in such an
emergency. I also thought that I never wanted to get so close to
my research again! This frightening experience taught me that
terrorism can touch anyone—​me included—​even though the
likelihood of being touched is minuscule.
Even prior to the unprecedented hijackings on September
11, 2001 (henceforth, 9/​11) that killed almost three thousand
people and injured over twice that number, the world was
acutely aware of the threat that terrorism posed. A few past
watershed terrorist incidents include the US Marines barracks
bombing in Beirut, Lebanon, on October 23, 1983; the downing
of Air India Boeing 747 en route from Montreal to London on
June 23, 1985; the downing of Pan Am Flight 103 en route from
London to New York on December 21, 1988; the simultaneous
bombings of the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam on
August 7, 1998; and the commuter train bombings in Madrid
on March 11, 2004. Although watershed incidents generally re-
sult in large casualty tolls (deaths and injuries), most terrorist
incidents kill and maim relatively few. The peak of transna-
tional terrorism, which affects people or property from two or
more countries, took place during 1980–​1991, when the annual
average number of attacks was 467. As religious fundamen-
talist terrorist groups replaced leftist terrorist groups as the
dominant transnational terrorist influence in the late 1990s, the
annual count of transnational terrorist attacks dropped dras-
tically, but each attack involved greater carnage than in the
earlier decades.
Currently, terrorism poses an ever-​ present threat that
captures headlines and occupies our consciousness. Recent
noteworthy attacks include truck massacres in Nice on
Bastille Day on July 14, 2016, in Berlin at a Christmas market
 Preface xv

on December 19, 2016, and in Stockholm on Drottninggatan

(a pedestrian street) on April 8, 2017. Other ghastly terrorist
events include the Brussels airport and Maalbeek metro
station suicide bombings on March 22, 2016, and the Atatürk
Airport armed attack and suicide bombings on June 28, 2016.
In the United States, recent terrorist attacks include the San
Bernardino Inland Regional Center shooting that killed four-
teen people on December 2, 2015, and the Orlando nightclub
shooting that killed forty-​nine people on June 12, 2016. Both
shootings were ISIS-​ inspired, demonstrating the escalating
concern of lone wolf terrorism. On October 31, 2017, Sayfullo
Habibullaevich Saipov, a lone wolf terrorist, rammed a rental
truck into cyclists and runners on the Hudson River Park’s
bike path in New York City. The attack killed eight and injured
eleven.
Since 9/​11, the threat of terrorism has directly affected our
lives. Tens of billions of dollars are spent to support the US
Department of Homeland Security (DHS), in which approx-
imately two-​thirds of its $66.8 billion budget in 2017 goes to
addressing the terrorism threat. In addition, huge amounts of
money are spent by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the
Central Intelligence Agency, and the US Department of Defense
to address the terrorism threat. Other targeted countries
also allocate large sums of money to protect against terrorist
attacks. Our routines at airports were forever altered by 9/​11
and subsequent terrorist incidents (for example, Richard Reed,
“the shoe bomber,” on December 22, 2001). The 9/​11 attacks
had a profound effect on the insurance premiums for buildings
in major cities. The erection of barricades in front of federal
buildings is another instance, where the risk of terrorism has
impacted our lives. In this case, it was the bombing of the
Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City on April
19, 1995, that created the need for novel security measures and
new federal building designs. Incidents around the globe, re-
ported on the news, remind us daily that terrorism remains a
pertinent concern. As such, terrorism worries may influence
xvi Preface

our travel and vacation plans. Despite all of the expenditures

on counterterrorism, American polls identified terrorism as the
primary security concern prior to the 2016 presidential elec-
tion. Populist candidates in the United States and Europe use
the terrorist threat as an argument for restricting immigration.
The purpose of this book is to educate and demystify
terrorism and its myriad aspects for readers that include college
students, adult professionals, college-​ educated individuals,
journalists, retirees, officeholders, and just about anyone
who seeks a better understanding of modern-​day terrorism.
In a question-​and-​answer format, this book provides an in-
formed analysis, free from ideology or politics, of the con-
cept of terrorism, the causes of terrorism, the role of terrorist
groups, the effectiveness of counterterrorism, asymmetries of
terrorism, the economic consequences of terrorism, and the fu-
ture of terrorism. I show that there are a lot of misconceptions
about terrorism that have been inadvertently generated by the
news media or elected officials. To accomplish this intended
task, I draw on the findings from a large body of literature from
political science, economics, and related disciplines. Articles in
this literature base their conclusions on theoretical constructs
that are tested with sophisticated empirical methods applied
to real-​world data on past terrorist incidents, influences, and
observations. I conduct my questions and answers relatively
free from jargon and technical terms to make my points acces-
sible to a wide readership. I also aim to make the book inter-
esting, provocative, and rather surprising in places.
To engage the reader’s interests, I refer to key terrorist
incidents throughout the book. These incidents are chosen to
illustrate and highlight points being made in the text. There
are literally thousands of incidents that can be chosen; how-
ever, most attacks are minor bombings or threats that are of
little illustrative importance. Thus, I choose watershed events
that the reader probably was aware of when they occurred.
For instance, 9/​11 changed airport security drastically, while
the 1983 suicide bombing of the US Marines barracks in Beirut
 Preface xvii

demonstrated that such bombings could result in concessions.

The facts in the incidents are checked from trusted sources. At
times, final casualty tolls may differ among sources, so that
I rely on sources that update their tolls as new information
becomes known. These sources are given in the notes.
I have researched terrorism for thirty-​six years, well before
interest in the topic grew after 9/​11. My early contributions
appeared in the American Political Science Review, American
Economic Review, and the Journal of Law and Economics, all of
which are premier journals. Early on, I worked with Edward
Mickolus, Peter Flemming, and Jean Murdock (my wife) to
put together a data set on transnational terrorist incidents
that has been used by researchers for over thirty years. I have
published articles on negotiations with terrorists, the eco-
nomic consequences of terrorism, causes of terrorism, survival
of terrorist groups, the effectiveness of counterterrorism, the
role of international cooperation, and many other aspects of
terrorism. I was a pioneer in applying game theory and other
theoretic tools to the study of terrorism. For a ten-​year period,
I received grants from the US DHS to study various aspects
of terrorism. I have talked with government officials and
people at multilateral organizations (including Interpol and
the United Nations) about my research findings on terrorism.
I coauthored (with Walter Enders) The Political Economy of
Terrorism (Cambridge University Press), now in its second
edition. I have studied terrorism from many alternative van-
tage points. Finally, I have taught classes on terrorism for two
decades. It is my hope that my varied experience allows me
to write an informed, engaging, and useful book on a topic of
significant importance.
 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

My greatest debt of gratitude is to my wife, Jeannie Murdock,

who supported this project in so many ways. She typed the
manuscript and provided helpful feedback throughout the pro-
cess. She also gave me encouragement and was understanding
as I focused so many hours on the manuscript. I also gratefully
profited from comments offered by Carol Sandler, who read
a draft of the manuscript. Her comments and encouragement
are greatly appreciated. I also thank Dave McBride and David
Pervin, senior editors at Oxford University Press (OUP), for
their advice, comments, and belief in the project. I also thank
Scott Parris, retired economics editor at OUP, for encouraging
me to write a more general interest book. Two anonymous
readers provided helpful comments on the proposed book.
I also sent chapters to scholars, such as Wolfgang Buchholz,
for their insights. I greatly profited from their feedback.
I also want to thank my many coauthors whom I have
collaborated with on research articles on terrorism over the
last thirty-​six years. This collaboration played a large role in
the genesis of this book. In particular, I want to thank Walter
Enders and Khusrav Gaibulloev, from whom I have learned
so much. My first articles on terrorism were written with
Jon Cauley, Scott Atkinson, and John Tschirhart, all of whom
stimulated my interest in applying economic reasoning to the
study of terrorism. In addition, I thank Daniel Arce, Subhayu
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