EUROPEAN

JOURNAL
OF OPERATIONAL
RESEARCH
ELSEVIER European Journal of Operational Research 99 (1997) 507-515

Maintenance scheduling under age replacement policy using

proportional hazards model and TTT-plotting
Dhananjay Kumar a, Ulf Westberg b
a Stockholm Energi AB, Vattenkraft, S-115 77 Stockholm, Sweden
b Lulegt University o f Technology, S-97187 Lulegt, Sweden

Abstract

The failure characteristics of a system may depend on the total operating time, operating time since the last repair, failure
history, operating conditions or on the values of monitored variables. A reliability based approach which takes into
consideration values of monitored variables is suggested for estimating the optimum maintenance (or replacement) time
interval for a system or threshold values of monitored variables under the age replacement policy. The maintenance cost
equation is formed on the basis of the planned and unplanned maintenance costs and the values of monitored variables. The
proportional hazards model is used to identify the importance of monitored variables. The reliability function is estimated
considering the values of monitored variables. A total time on test (TIT) plot based on this estimate of the reliability
function is used to estimate the optimum maintenance (or replacement) time interval for a system or threshold values of
monitored variables. This approach is illustrated with an example. © 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Keywords: Proportional hazards model; Total time on test; Age replacement policy; Threshold value; Maintenance scheduling

1. I n t r o d u c t i o n proposed where the values of monitored variables

Maintenance scheduling of stochastically failing
systems has been widely investigated in the literature
considering failure times only (see surveys by
Valdez-Flores and Feldman, 1989 and Cho and Par-
lar, 1991). However, information obtained using
condition monitoring devices, whenever possible, is
being used more and more in industries for mainte-
nance scheduling. This trend is accelerated by the
availability of reliable sensors and a rapid develop-
ment in information technologies. Presently, mainte-
nance scheduling of a repairable system (or replace-
ment time interval for a nonrepairable system) is
decided based on experience, manufacturers' recom-
mendations, characteristics of monitored variables,
or reliability analysis. A reliability based approach is
are considered for maintenance scheduling or re-
placement time optimisation.
The approach discussed in this paper is based
upon the assumption that the values of monitored
variables are available just before a failure (such as
level of metal particles in engine oil). This approach
can be extended for the case of continuously or
periodically monitored variables if the changes in the
values of variables during two renewals can be rep-
resented quantitatively. Sometimes it may happen
that the monitored variable value is randomly dis-
tributed within certain limits and remains constant
during a renewal cycle of the system. Difficulties
encountered in the above situations are to determine
time intervals between two planned maintenance ac-
tivities for a system or to estimate the threshold

0377-2217/97/$17.00 © 1997 Elsevier Science All rights reserved.

PII S 0 3 7 7 - 2 2 1 7 ( 9 6 ) 0 0 3 1 7 - 7
508 D. Kumar, U. Westberg / European Journal of Operational Research 99 (1997) 507-515
values of the variables at which a planned mainte-
nance should be carried out so that the long run
average maintenance cost per unit time is minimised.
The threshold value of a monitored variable is the
maximum/minimum allowable value which leads to
a minimal long run average maintenance cost per
unit time of a system, if a planned maintenance is
carried out at this value. In case of a continuously
monitored single variable, the generalised total time
on test plot (Barlow and Campo, 1975; Bergman,
1977; A1-Najjar, 1990) may be used to determine the
threshold value of a variable.
Under the age replacement policy, a system is
assumed to be renewed by planned and unplanned
maintenance either through replacements or repairs.
A maintenance cost equation is formed considering
the planned and unplanned maintenance costs and
the reliability function for estimating optimum main-
tenance (or replacement) time intervals. Our sugges-
tions is to use the reliability function based both on
the failure times and the values of monitored vari-
ables in the cost equation instead of the usual ap-
proach based on failure times only (see Barlow and
Proschan, 1965). There are several models for esti-
mating the reliability function based on variables but
the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1972) appears
very robust and requires few assumptions (Newby,
1993). Our suggestions is to use the estimate of the
reliability function obtained in the proportional haz-
ards model. Further it is suggested that a graphical
method called total time on test (TTT) plotting based
on the proportional hazards model should be used to
estimate the optimum maintenance (or replacement)
time interval or threshold value.
2. Proportional hazards model
The proportional hazards model (PHM) was first
introduced by Cox (1972). Since then various appli-
cations of the PHM in reliability analysis have been
presented. A general review and available computer
programs for the PHM are given in Kumar and
Klefsj~5 (1994).
The basic approach in the proportional hazards
modelling is to assume that the hazard rate of a
system consists of two multiplicative factors, the
baseline hazard rate, ho(t), and generally an expo-
nential function including the effects of the moni-
tored variables. For example, these monitored vari-
ables can be lubricant pressure, temperature, particle
contents in hydraulics or vibration levels. Hence, the
hazard rate of a system can be written as (Cox, 1972)
h( t; z) = ho( t ) exp ( z / 3 ) , (1)
where z is a row vector consisting of covariates,
explanatory variables, any monitored variable or any
state indicating variable, and /3 is a column vector
consisting of the corresponding regression parame-
ters. The unknown parameter/3 defines the influence
of the monitored variables on the failure process. In
case of continuously or periodically monitored vari-
ables during a life cycle, an approximation such as
slope of the curve followed by the variable or changes
in the slope or an appropriate function should be
used for z. The partial likelihood function is gener-
ally used for estimating the regression vector/3 (see
Kalbfleisch and Prentice (1980) and Cox and Oakes
(1984) for details):
k exp ( zi/3 )
L(/3) = F I ,,, (2)
i=l[E exp ( Z , / 3 ) 1
n~¢( ti)
where d i is a small number of tied failures compared
to the number of failure times n the risk set ¢(t~) at
time t i and k is the number of uncensored observa-
tions. These observations may arise from failures of
less than n repairable systems with multiple failures
or from n nonrepairable systems. It should be noted
that Eq. (2) is based on the assumptions of indepen-
dent and identical distribution of failure times. This
assumption should be tested for repairable systems.
Here failure times of a repairable system correspond
to the time between successive failures.
Different methods have been suggested for esti-
mating of the baseline hazard rate (see Breslow,
1974; Kalbfleisch and Prentice, 1980; Westberg and
Kumar, 1995). We will use the following estimate of
the cumulative baseline hazard rate suggested by
Breslow (1974) as it is easier to calculate:
Ito( t ) = • di (3)
i;ti<t E exp(z, fi) "
n Ere( l i)
 D. Kumar, U. Westberg/ European Journal of Operational Research 99 (1997) 507-515
The reliability function, R(t; z) is related to the
baseline reliability function, in the following manner
(see Appendix A)
R( t; z) = [ Ro( t)] exp(z#).
Hence we can get an estimate of the total reliabil-
ity function, R(t; z), at any desired time points. This
estimate of R(t; z) is then used in the maintenance
cost equation.
3. Maintenance cost equation for age replacement
policy
Let c be the planned maintenance cost and c + a
be the unplanned maintenance cost, i.e., a is the
additional cost due to failure of the system during
operation. The total maintenance cost C(t, T, z)
over the time interval (0, t] is a random variable and
T is the time interval between two planned mainte-
nance activities. Our aim is to find either the value of
T, say T0, or the threshold value of variable of z,
say z,h, such that the long run average maintenance
cost per unit time is minimised, i.e., we look for
either T or z such that
C(T, Z) = lim E
t--~ t
is minimised.
Under the age replacement policy, unplanned
maintenance is carried out after a failure and planned
maintenance is carried out after the system has been
working for T units of time since the last planned or
unplanned maintenance (see Fig. 1). A nonrepairable
system is replaced by a new one after any mainte-
nance action. A repairable system is assumed to be
Hazard [ / / - / ,' , ~ q ,
Time
X = U n p l a n n e d maintenance
O = Planned maintenance
Fig. 1. A n illustration o f the age replacement p o l i c y a n d the
pattern o f the h a z a r d rate a s s u m e d in this p o l i c y .
509
renewed, both at unplanned and planned mainte-
nance.
The average maintenance cost per unit time in the
long run without considering monitored variables is
(4)
given in Barlow and Proschan (1965). This mainte-
nance cost equation can be extended to include
monitored variables
c + a . F ( T ; z)
C(T; z) = , (6)
orR( t; z )dt
where F(T; z) is the cumulative distribution func-
tion. The optimum maintenance time interval, TO, or
the threshold value, Zth, that will give the minimum
average maintenance cost per unit time in the long
run can be found by minimising Eq. (6). One may
use a numerical method (see Love and Guo, 1991) or
a graphical method called TTF- plotting discussed in
the following sections.
4. Total time on test plotting
The TTT-plot and its theoretical counterpart, the
scaled T/~-transform, were introduced by Barlow
and Campo (1975). Since then various applications
of TTT-plotting have been presented (Bergman and
(5) Klefsj~5, 1982; Klefsj~5, 1986; Kumar et al., 1989;
Dohi et al., 1995). The "lq~-plot gives a picture of
the failure data which is independent of the scale and
is situated completely within the unit square with
comers in (0, 0), (0, 1), (1, 0) and (1, 1). The
TTT-plot explained in this paper differs from the
original TTT-plot in the sense that monitored vari-
able values are being considered.
Let 0 = t(l ) ~ / ' ( 2 ) ~ . . . ~ t(.) denote an ordered
and complete sample from a life distribution F(t; z).
Let S(ti; zi) be the total time generated in ages by a
failure at a time less than or equal to t v Then the
TFF value at any time t~ is defined as (see Barlow
i
and Campo, 1975):
> S( t,; zi) = nf0"R( t; z)dt, (7)
where S(t0; z 0 ) = 0. The scaled TTT-transform is
defined as (see Appendix A)
S ( t ; Zi)
q~(ui) S(t,;z,)' i = 1 , 2 ..... n, (8)
510 D. Kumar, U. Westberg / European Journal of Operational Research 99 (1997) 507-515
where ui = F( t i, zi). The TrT-plot is obtained by
plotting (u, qffu)) and joining the points by line
segments.
5. Determination of the optimum maintenance (or
replacement) time interval
A graphical approach to estimate the optimum
maintenance time interval from a TTT-plot was first
suggested by Bergman (1977). Our suggestion is to
consider monitored variables in the TgI'-plot. If we
draw a line from the point ( - c / a , 0) and tangent to
the TTT-plot, its slope will be given by
Slope - c / a + u
After some transformation, Eq. (6) can be written as
(see Appendix A)
c / / a q- u
C ( T ; z) = constant × - -
It can be concluded that the slope of a line drawn
from the point ( - c / a , 0) on the TTT-plot is in-
versely proportional to the average unit maintenance
cost given by Eq. (6). Therefore, the largest possible
slope will correspond to the minimum average unit
maintenance (or replacement) cost. If the line with
the largest possible slope is tangent to the TTT-plot
at the point (u 0, q~0(u)), the value of the failure time,
To, which has been used to calculate (u 0, q~0(u)),
will be an estimate of the optimum maintenance (or
replacement) time interval. Generally planned main-
tenance will not be economical to perform if the line
is tangent to the point (1, 1).
To consider the monitored variable values, the
T I T value at time t i can be estimated based on the
estimate of the reliability function given by Eq. (4)
using the PHM, that is,
i
S ( t i ; Z , ) = n ~., ( t j - t j _ l ) R ( t j _ , ; z j _ , ) ,
j=l
for i = 1,2 ..... n and R( to; Zo) = l,
where zi are the values of the monitored variables at
time t i.
Consideration of values of monitored variables in
the TTT-plot is very useful in maintenance schedul-
ing under different situations. The TTI'-plot should
be obtained considering the situations for which an
optimum maintenance (or replacement) time interval
is to be estimated. Then a line with the largest
possible slope should be drawn tangent to the T T r -
plot and passing through the point ( - c / a , 0) on the
horizontal axis. The value of the failure time corre-
sponding to the point at which the line touches the
TVr-plot will be an estimate of the optimum mainte-
nance (or replacement) time interval.
Suppose that more than one variables have been
found significant in the PHM analysis. These vari-
ables can either be condition monitored variables or
any explanatory factors characterising the system
failure. The TT'f-plot should be obtained considering
(9) all the significant variables to obtain an estimate of
the optimum maintenance (or replacement) time in-
terval. In some situations, we may be interested in
estimating the optimum maintenance time interval,
To corresponding to one particular monitored vari-
(10) able, say z~. The reliability function, R(t; z~), corre-
sponding to z~ is estimated using the relation Eq.
(4), i.e.,
R( t; zl) -~ [ Ro( t)] exp(t3'z') (12)
Eq. (12) can be used in estimating R(t; Zl) at all
failure times and a TVI'-plot can be obtained to
estimate optimum maintenance time interval To cor-
responding to the variable value Zl. If we are inter-
ested in estimating TO corresponding to two or more
particular variables, we should estimate the reliabil-
ity function same as in Eq. (12) based on each
individual variables. Then, the corresponding TTT-
plots should be used for estimating TO.
The value of a monitored variable may remain the
same during a particular interval between mainte-
nance actions, but it may have a different value
during an another life cycle. One may be interested
in estimating the optimum maintenance (or replace-
ment) time intervals corresponding to different val-
ues of the monitored variable. For example, let the
(11)
monitored variable, Zl have three levels, say zl0, zll
and z,2, and the monitored variable value is equal to
zm during some operational time until a failure
occurs and is equal to Zll during another operational
time until a failure occurs. One may be interested in
 D. Kumar, U. Westberg/ European Journal of Operational Research 99 (1997) 507-515 51 l

estimating the optimum maintenance time interval 7. Example

lengths, T~0, T~, and T~2 corresponding to the lev-
els, z~0, z~l, and Zl2, respectively. The reliability
function is calculated at each failure time using the
relation in Eq. (4), i.e.
R(t;Zli)=[Ro(t)] exp(c~lz'i), i=0,1,2.
The TIT-plots are constructed as before using the
corresponding estimates of the reliability function at
all failure times. Lines with the largest possible
slopes are drawn tangent to three TTT-plots from the
point ( - c / a , 0). Let these lines be tangent to the
TVr-plots at the points (ul0, q~10(u)), (Ull , (~II(U))
and (ul2, q~12(u)). The values of Tlo, Tll, Tl2 will
be equal to those failure times which are used in
calculating these points, respectively. In case of more
than one variable with different levels, TTI'-plots
should be obtained for all possible combinations of
different levels of variables.
There can be situations where planned and un-
planned maintenance costs are different when failure
occurs at different levels of a variable. In such a case
the cost ratios corresponding to different levels of
the variable will be different. The optimum mainte-
nance time intervals corresponding to each variables
can be estimated as discussed before.
To illustrate the above concepts the data listed in
the paper by Love and Guo (1991) is considered.
The data consists information about the times be-
(13) tween replacements of pressure gauges which are
replaced on failure or as part of a planned mainte-
nance. The data is listed in Table 1. The data has
been arranged as per increasing magnitudes of the
time intervals. The time points at which replace-
ments occurred as part of planned maintenance are
marked by asterisks.
7.1. Optimum maintenance time interval based on
failure times only
In case of no information about monitored vari-
ables, the approach proposed by Bergman, 1977 can
be used to get a T/q'-plot (see Fig. 2). The reliability
function was estimated using the product limit
method (Kaplan and Meier, 1958)
n-j
R(t) = I - I - - , (14)
j n-j+ 1

where the product is made for those j where tj < t

6. Determination of the threshold value of a vari-
able
If determination of the level of the variable value
(i.e. threshold value) is a matter of interest, the
optimum maintenance time interval is estimated cor-
responding to each levels of the monitored variable.
Then the corresponding average unit maintenance
costs using Eq. (6) should be compared for each
levels. The variable value that gives the minimum
unit cost should be selected as the threshold value of
the monitored variable.
and tj is an uncensored observation. The largest
failure time t n is always taken as an uncensored
observation in order to get the plot to stop at the
point (1, 1). The distribution function is estimated
using the relation F ( t ) = 1 - R ( t ) , and the TTT
values and scaled TTT-transforms are calculated as
follows:
i
S(ti) = n Y', ( t j - - t j _ t ) R ( t j _ l ) , for i = 1,2 ..... n,
j=l
and R(to) = 1, (15)

Table 1
The time to failure of pressure gauges were replaced on failure or as part of planned maintenance (denoted by asterisks). This data has been
taken from the paper by Love and Guo (1991)
Observation Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Time to failure 32 42 44' 47 51 53 60 * 61 * 66 70 70 77 95 101 198
Monitored variable, Pressure 5 4 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 4 5 4 3 3 3
512 D. Kumar, U. Westberg/ European Journal of Operational Research 99 (1997) 507-515
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
//
Fig. 2. A TIT-plot to find the optimal replacement time intervals.
The straight line drawn with the largest possible slope from the
point (-0.50, 0) touches the TIT-plot at the point which corre-
sponds to failure time 42 hours. Hence, the optimal maintenance
time interval will be 42 hours.
s(ti)
q~( ui) = S( t,----~" (16)
To estimate the optimum maintenance or replace-
ment time interval, a line with the largest possible
slope is drawn tangent to the TTT-plot and passing
through the point ( - c / a , 0) on the horizontal axis.
For c / a = 0.5, the corresponding line touches the
TTT-plot at the point (u 0, ~P(u0)) which corresponds
to the failure time that is equal to 42 hours. Hence
the optimum replacement time intervals of pressure
gauges will be 42 hours if c / a = 0.5. The estimated
optimum maintenance or replacement time interval is
the same even though the cost ratio varies in the
range 0.16 to 0.56. Because, a line drawn from any
point in the interval [ - 0 . 1 6 , - 0 . 5 6 ] on the horizon-
tal axis will touch the "ITr-plot at the same point
which corresponds to 42 hours. This illustrates that it
is easier to carry out a sensitivity analysis using a
TI'T-plot compared to using numerical methods.
7.2. Optimum time interval based on failure times
and the monitored variables
In the presence of information about a monitored
variable, it is better to estimate the optimum mainte-
nance or replacement time interval based on the
values of the monitored variable. It will enhance the
effectiveness of maintenance scheduling. First of all,
the magnitude of the effect of the monitored variable
on the hazard rate is estimated using the PHM. The
effect of a variable estimated in the PHM is a
relative risk. Therefore, it is better to formulate a
variable value that includes zero. The pressure values
were therefore coded as - 1, 0, and 1 for the pres-
sure values equal to 3, 4, and 5, respectively. The
result of the PHM analysis is listed in Table 2. The
effects of the variable pressure was estimated using
Eq. (2). Hence, the hazard rate of the pressure gauge
can be written as
h ( t ; z) = h 0 ( t ) e x p ( 1 . 1 8 8 z ) , (17)
where z is equal to - 1, 0, or 1.
In order to estimate the optimum replacement
time intervals when the coded value of the variable
is equal to only one of the three values, - 1, 0, or 1,
TT-l'-plots corresponding to each of the three values
were obtained. The Eq. (13) was used to estimate the
corresponding reliability functions. The correspond-
ing TTT-plots are given in Fig. 3. For c / a = 0.5,
lines with the largest slope and tangent to the TTT-
plots are drawn from the point ( - 0 . 5 , 0). These
lines touch the TTT-plots at the points which corre-
spond to failure times 66, 47 and 42 hours. Hence
the optimum replacement time interval will be 66, 47
and 42 hours when the variable z is equal to - 1, 0,
and 1, respectively, i.e., when the pressure is equal
to 3, 4, and 5 units, respectively.
7.3. Threshold value of the variable pressure
Estimation of threshold values has no practical
significance for the example considered here. But to
illustrate the approach, let us consider a hypothetical
situation. Let us assume that time to failures are from
a process plant and we have possibility to decide the
level of pressure at which the plant should be oper-
ated.
To estimate the threshold value, the unit mainte-
nance costs Eq. (5) are compared when T = 66, 47
and 42 hours when z = - l, 0, and 1, respectively.
The estimated costs per hour are 0.042 c, 0.059c and
Table 2
Result of the PHM analysis. The effect of the variable pressure
was estimated using the likelihood function Eq. (2)
variable, z coefficient, /3 standard deviation t-statistic p-value
Pressure 1.188 0.493 2.41 0.016
 D. Kumar, U. Westberg / European Journal of Operational Research 99 (1997) 507-515 513

1.ot
0.8 (a)

0.6

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

1.0 l

0.8 0.8 (C

0.6 0.6

-0.5
ilt 0.0 0.5 1.0 -0.5 0.0 05 1.0
U

Fig. 3. T'lq'-plots to find the optimal r e p l a c e m e n t time intervals w h e n the monitored variable z is equal to only one o f the three possible
values, i.e., - 1, 0 or 1. Straight lines are d r a w n with the largest possible slope from the point ( - 0.5, 0) and tangent to the c o r r e s p o n d i n g
T I T - p l o t s . The points at w h i c h these lines are tangent to the "ITl'-plots c o r r e s p o n d s to failure times equal to 66, 47 and 42 h o u r s for z =
- 1 , 0 a n d 1, respectively. Hence, the optimal r e p l a c e m e n t time interval will be 66 (for z = - 1), 47 (for z = 0) and 42 (for z = 1) hours, a:
"FIT-plot when covariate z = - 1. b: T T T - p l o t w h e n covariate z = 0. c: l l l - p l o t when covariate z = I.

0.061c, respectively for c/a=0.5. Therefore the
threshold value of the monitored variable will be 3
units which corresponds to z = - 1. This corre-
sponds to the minimum long run average unit main-
tenance costs. Other examples of applications of
such an approach is decision about maximum allow-
able level of particle contents in lubrication oil or
maximum allowable vibration of a system.
8. Conclusions
A new method for maintenance scheduling based
on the PHM and TTF-plotting is suggested. The
PHM should be used to find out whether the failure
characteristic of a system depends on the failure
times only or on the monitored variable value also.
The TTT-plot considering only failure times should
be used when information about the monitored vari-
able is not available or when the monitored variables
are not important in explaining the failure character-
istic of a system. Otherwise, the TTT-plot consider-
ing monitored variable values should be used while
estimating the optimum maintenance time intervals
or threshold values. This approach can be used in the
presence of any factors influencing the reliability
characteristics of a system with some limitations.
This approach will be difficult to use when there is
interaction among monitored variables or any other
influencing factors.
514 D. Kumar, U. Westberg/ European Journal of Operational Research 99 (1997) 507-515

The proposed approach can be used as a decision c/a + u

making tool for maintenance scheduling for nonre- = constant X F-l(u)
pairable systems based on the monitored variables
and the failure times. This approach may also be
±
P"
fo (1 - u)dt
used for repairable systems which are always re-
newed by both planned and unplanned maintenance. c/a + u
= constant ×
It will enhance the prediction capability in condition
monitoring.
where u = F(T; z), 0 < u < 1; /z = foR(t;
ao
z)dt; and
~p(u) = ( 1 / / z ) f0F-'(")(1 -- u)dt
Acknowledgements
A.3. Scaled TIT-transform
Authors are thankful to anonymous referees and
Professor Bengt KlefsjS, Division of Quality Tech-
nology and Statistics, Lule~ University, Sweden, for q~( Ui) = ~ foF-l(ui)(1-- u ) d t
their comments which improved the presentation of
the paper. The financial support from the Swedish
Research Council for Engineering Sciences under the n foti(1-- u)dt nfot'(1- u)dt
project number 95 55 is gratefully acknowledged. ~-" oc

n
fo (1 -u)dt

Appendix A or

s( t,; z,)
A.1. Relation between R(t; z) and Ro(t) =

s( t.; z . ) '
where
R( t; z) =exp [ - foth( x; z)dx ]
S( ti; Zi) = n fot,R( t; z ) d t = n for'( 1 -- u)d t.
=exp[-fotho(x)exp(zfl)dx ]

= exp [ - H 0 ( t ) exp ( z f l ) ]
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=
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