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Euroscepticism and the Future of European Integration
Euroscepticism and the
Future of European
Integration
Catherine E. De Vries
1
3
Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP,
United Kingdom
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.
It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of
Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries
© Catherine E. De Vries 2018
The moral rights of the author have been asserted
First Edition published in 2018
Impression: 1
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
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above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the
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You must not circulate this work in any other form
and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer
Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press
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Library of Congress Control Number: 2017947441
ISBN 978–0–19–879338–0
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Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and
for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials
contained in any third party website referenced in this work.
For Hector,
who made me see the European project through different eyes
Preface
1
The Eurobarometer has conducted biannual surveys in all the EU member states (as well as
some candidate countries) since 1973. While its purpose is to chart the policy preferences of
European publics and provide input for EU policy making, the Eurobarometer surveys have
provided an invaluable resource for academic research in Europe. For more information see
http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/index_en.htm.
Preface
European project, the single currency, and the possibility for reform were
tainted by ‘my’ national perspective.
The second conversation took place at the annual meeting of the European
Political Science Association in Vienna in June 2015. On the last evening of
the conference, I had dinner with colleagues. One of these was my friend and
co-author, Elias Dinas, who is Greek. During dinner, Elias was eagerly trying to
get ahold of his mother in Greece. Earlier that day the Greek government had
restricted the amounts of money people were allowed to withdraw from their
bank accounts. His mother urgently needed cash for groceries and was not
able to get hold of her money. Our dinner conversation about the situation in
Greece and the role the European Union played in it, against the backdrop of
people going about their normal lives on a Saturday night in Vienna, made
me realize again that the way each of us sees the European project and
evaluates it is deeply influenced by ‘our’ national viewpoints. These two
dinner conversations and many other exchanges since then led me to the
insight that underpins this book and the theory of European public opinion it
presents: people’s evaluations of and experiences with the European project are
fundamentally framed by the national circumstances in which they find themselves.
Although the idea that national conditions matter for public opinion about
European integration has been addressed in the literature before, most notably
in the important contributions of Ignacio Sánchez-Cuenca (2000) and Robert
Rohrschneider (2002), we currently lack an understanding of the exact way in
which they do and how they relate to behaviour in elections and referendums.
This book presents a benchmark theory of public opinion towards European
integration. It provides both a comprehensive country and individual level
mechanism of how national and European evaluations are linked and interact
to produce certain kinds of behavioural consequences. The contribution of this
book is not only to provide an insight into how public opinion, and especially
Euroscepticism, is structured, how it comes about, how it changed in the midst
of the Eurozone crisis, and how it is linked to national conditions, but also
what possible consequences it has for the future of the European project.
The writing of this book has been an extremely rewarding experience that
would not have been possible without the help of others. Some people advised
me over a cup of coffee, while others attended various talks or workshops
where ideas were presented, and others again took valuable time out of their
busy schedules to read entire drafts of the manuscript. A very special thank
you goes to the Bertelsmann Foundation and in particular Isabell Hoffmann.
A large part of the data collection would not have been possible without the
generous support of the Bertelsmann Foundation. I am grateful for their
continued dedication to understanding the contours of public opinion in
Europe. Especially my close cooperation with Isabell has been crucially
important for my thinking. I wish to thank her for all her advice and her
viii
Preface
ways of challenging me to always think about the bigger picture and the
political ramifications of my findings.
Second, I would like to express my gratitude to several wonderful colleagues
who have helped sharpen my thinking. There are many, but I especially wish
to thank Elias Dinas, David Doyle, Aina Gallego, Tim Haughton, Armèn
Hakhverdian, Stephanie Hofmann, Elisabeth Ivarsflaten, Spyros Kosmidis,
Gary Marks, Robert Rohrschneider, Christina Schneider, Marco Steenbergen,
and Mariken Van der Velden for their extremely helpful comments on various
ideas and drafts. A special thank you also goes to Kalypso Nicolaïdis and the
staff at the Centre for European Studies at the University of Oxford for
organizing a book workshop in February 2017. At this workshop some of my
former Oxford colleagues and students took the time to engage with my ideas.
I especially want to thank Kalypso and Alexander Kuo for their extremely
insightful and constructive comments and thorough reading of the book. In
addition, I wish to acknowledge two very bright students in International
Relations at Oxford, Kira Huju and Christine Gallagher, who provided very
helpful comments. I also wish to thank Dominic Byatt, my editor at Oxford
University Press, for his continued support. His advice on how to write a book
about a target that is continuously changing was extremely valuable.
Finally, I wish to thank four people in particular who stood by me in the
process of writing this book. The first is my longstanding friend and co-author
Sara Hobolt. Your clarity of thought and dedication to understanding the deep
problems the European Union faces at the present time amazes me every time
we meet. This book has benefited from all our exchanges and your thoughtful
insights. Our academic and personal friendship means so very much to me.
The second is my ‘Doktor-Mutter’ and co-author Liesbet Hooghe. Without
your valuable advice, critique, and support this manuscript would never have
been published. You are an inspiration to me to this day. I also wish to
wholeheartedly thank my husband and co-author, Héctor Solaz. I am eternally
grateful for all the long walks and talks during which you supported me when
I felt stuck, and clarified the core argument I wanted to make to myself. Thank
you for every minute. Without your love and support this book would have
never seen the light of day. Finally, I want to thank my little daughter Mila.
You move so gracefully between three European cultures and languages. Your
life truly represents what European connectedness is made of. I hope for you
and for your future life companions that Europe finds a way to champion its
accomplishments and cherish its differences as strengths rather than as
weaknesses.
Braiswick
May 2017
ix
Contents
List of Figures xv
List of Tables xix
Contents
xii
Contents
Appendix 223
Bibliography 227
Index 243
xiii
List of Figures
xvi
List of Figures
xvii
List of Figures
8.8. Support for economic reform among the four types by national
conditions 197
8.9. Expectations about future of Eurozone among the four types 198
8.10. Expectations about future of Eurozone among the four types by
national conditions 199
8.11. Support for Eurozone budget and finance minister among the
four types 200
8.12. Support for Eurozone budget and finance minister among the
four types by national conditions 200
8.13. Support for EU response to member state in financial difficulty
among the four types 201
8.14. Support for EU response to member state in financial difficulty
among the four types by national conditions 202
9.1. Summary of the differences between the four types 208
xviii
List of Tables
PROPORTIONATE ENLARGEMENT.