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Chapter 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting 169

CHAPTER 8
MARKETING RESEARCH AND SALES FORECASTING

CHAPTER OVERVIEW

Collecting and managing information about what customers need and want is a challenging task for any
marketer. This chapter focuses on marketing research—the process of collecting and using information
for marketing decision making. It explains that data comes from a variety of sources—from well-planned
studies, sales force reports, accounting records, or published reports, and from controlled experiments
and computer simulations.

The chapter also focuses on the impact of technology in the market research process—right from data
mining, data collection, analysis of the gathered information to market research decision making and
planning—which is aimed at gathering business and competitive intelligence.

Chapter 8 also includes the ways market research affects promotional decisions, sales forecasts, and
growth predictions. Why is research needed? Marketers use research to understand their customers,
target customer segments, and develop long-term customer relationships—all keys to profitability.
Information collected through marketing research underlies much of the decision making involved in
market segmentation, discussed in Chapter 9.

Marketing research function is the primary source of the information and is clearly central to effective
marketing decisions. This chapter also explains how marketing research techniques are used to make
accurate sales forecasts, a critical component of marketing planning.

Changes in the Updated Edition

The chapter has been updated and revised in several ways.

• The Opening Vignette and Evolution of a Brand profile Polaris Marketing Research, named for
the night sky’s guiding North Star. Based in Atlanta, Polaris was founded in 1989 and has grown
steadily since then, undertaking six major expansions and adding to its already long list of
business clients. It is a full-service firm, and their services include: customer satisfaction and
loyalty, brand research, employee research, customer retention and win-back, and new-product
development, intended to help customers identify, understand, and retain current and future
customers. They also provide a free guide to marketing research. Find more details in “Polaris
Marketing Research Shows the Way.”

• Solving an Ethical Controversy looks into the Census promotions that included television, radio,
print, Web advertisements, and videos on Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, and YouTube. On one
hand, it was important to raise awareness among the U.S. citizens, but, the amount of dollars
spent in wasteful promotions and training has raised eyebrows. “Should the government buy
expensive advertising?” Pros, cons, and summary of the issue will be discussed in “Looking into
Census Bureau Spending on Advertising.”

• Marketing Success illustrates the increasing use of mobile applications that can map the
consumers, identify their locations, while keeping the privacy of the consumers intact. Sense

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


170 Part 3 Target Market Selection

Networks, a New York City based startup is developing software that helps capture consumer
activity. The challenges, strategies, and the outcome of mapping consumers are described in
"Mapping the Market."

• Career Readiness provides advice on a popular and relatively inexpensive form of marketing
research in “Planning Effective Online Surveys.” Online surveys give respondents anonymity,
which helps most people speak more freely, and the chance to answer questions at their pace.
Tips are provided on how to create successful online surveys, making sure that the marketer gets
the desired results and that the respondents’ time is not wasted.

• Chapter Case 8.1 highlights the case of Oberto Sausage, an 85-year-old family business in
Washington State directly to mass merchandisers and supermarket chains. The company uses a
computer-based forecasting program, which takes manual input, providing flexibility to the
decision makers to modify the forecasts as per the changes in the external business environment.
More details in “Oberto Sausage: A Recipe for Forecasting.”

• Collaborative Learning Exercises are provided in several areas related to marketing research
and sales forecasting—The Marketing Research Process, Sampling Techniques, Primary
Research Methods, and Garbology.

• Video Case 8.2 Synopsis includes an overview of Ogden Publications. The video is designed to
expand and highlight the concepts in this chapter and the concepts and questions covered in the
written video case.

LECTURE OUTLINE

Opening Vignette and Evolution of a Brand—Polaris Marketing Research Shows the Way. How do
companies know whether to change their online marketing strategy? What benefits do you think Polaris
offers its current and potential customers? How does the partners’ dedication to quality translate into
results for Polaris’s customers?

Chapter Objective 1: Describe the development of the marketing research function and its major
activities.
Key Terms: marketing research, syndicated services, full-service research suppliers, limited-service
research suppliers
PowerPoint Basic: 4, 5
PowerPoint Expanded: 4-7
1. What is marketing research?
a. Marketing research is the process of collecting and using
information for marketing decision making
b. Data comes from a variety of sources, such as well-planned
studies, sales force reports or accounting records, or controlled
experiments and simulations
c. By presenting pertinent information in a useful format, marketing
research aids decision makers in analyzing data and suggesting
possible actions,
d. Marketing research helps marketers in understanding
customers, targeting customer segments, and developing long-
term relationships
2. The marketing research function
a. The underlying purpose of marketing research is to find out
more about consumers, clearly central to effective customer
satisfaction and customer relationship programs

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


Chapter 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting 171

b. Development of the marketing research function


i. In 1879 the first organized marketing research project
was organized; in the early part of the 20th century, the
first commercial research department was established
ii. In the first known study, Charles C. Parlin counted soup
cans and found that working-class families bought more
canned soup than wealthy ones, convincing Campbell
Soup to place ads aimed at this population
iii. Research methods became more sophisticated in the
1930s due to the development of statistical techniques
iv. Advances in computer technology have led to significant
changes, including the addition of simulations that allow
marketers to pose “what if” questions
c. Who conducts marketing research?
i. The size and organizational form of the marketing
research function are usually tied to the firm’s structure
ii. Firms organize research units by product lines, brands,
geographic areas, or the type of research needed
d. Many organizations depend on independent marketing research
firms due to several factors:
i. Cost is often the reason for using an external firm
ii. Information collected is often more reliable and accurate
than what could be gathered in-house
iii. Technical assistance and expertise not available within
the contracting firm can be provided
iv. Interaction with outside suppliers also helps ensure that
a researcher does not conduct a study only to validate a
favorite viewpoint or preferred option
e. Marketing research companies range in size from sole
Note: How many proprietorships to international firms. They can be classified as:
research organizations i. Syndicated services—organizations that regularly
can you name? Do provide standardized sets of data to all customers
they offer standard ii. Full-service research suppliers—organizations that
services, or contract with clients to conduct complete marketing
specialized services? research projects (providing qualitative and quantitative
data from field studies, face-to-face and phone
interviews, online interviews, multinational studies, B2B
interviews, mystery shopping, public opinion polls, etc.)
iii. Limited-service research suppliers—firms that specialize
in a limited number of activities such as conducting field
interviews, or doing data processing
3. Customer satisfaction measurement programs
a. Measurement programs allow marketing firms to focus on
tracking the satisfaction levels of current customers
b. Valuable insights can be obtained by tracking dissatisfaction that
has led customers to abandon the firm’s products
c. These “customer defections” may be absolute (leave the
product) or partial (remain with a product but without complete
satisfaction), and help identify areas needing attention
d. Some firms conduct their own measurement programs through
online polls and surveys

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172 Part 3 Target Market Selection

Assessment check questions

1. Identify the different classifications of marketing research suppliers and


explain how they differ from one another. Marketing research suppliers can be
classified as syndicated services, which regularly send standardized data sets to
all customers; full-service suppliers, which contract to conduct complete
marketing research projects; or limited-service suppliers, which specialize in
selected activities.

2. What research methods can be used to measure customer satisfaction?


Some companies look at feedback from existing customers, for instance, hiring
marketing research firms to collect and analyze customer feedback at their Web
sites. Other firms collect feedback about customer defections—why a customer
no longer uses a product. Other organizations conduct research through online
polls and surveys.
Chapter Objective 2: Explain the steps in the marketing research process.
Key Terms: exploratory research, informal investigation, sales analysis, accounting data, marketing cost
analysis, hypothesis, research design, secondary data, primary data
PowerPoint Basic: 6
PowerPoint Expanded: 8-15
1. The marketing research process
a. The chances of making good decisions improve when the right
information is provided at the right time during decision making
b. To meet this goal, researchers often follow six steps in the
marketing research process:
i. Define the problem
ii. Conduct exploratory research
iii. Formulate a hypothesis
iv. Create a research design
v. Collect data (primary and secondary)
vi. Interpret and present the research information
2. Define the problem
a. A well-defined problem is half solved, because it permits the
Figure 8.1 The
researcher to focus on securing the exact information needed
Marketing Research
for the solution
Process. Which steps,
if any, might be b. It is important not to confuse symptoms of the problem with the
conducted in-house? problem itself
Which might be better i. A symptom merely alerts a marketer that a problem
left to an outside exists
marketing firm? ii. To identify the problem itself, marketers need to look for
the underlying causes of the symptom
iii. To do this, a starting point might be to evaluate the
firm’s target market and marketing mix elements
3. Conduct exploratory research
a. Exploratory research looks for causes of a specific problem by
discussing it with informed sources (both within and outside the
firm) and by examining data from other sources
i. This includes speaking with employees as well as
evaluating company records, sales and profit analyses,
and competitive data
ii. This internal data collection is often referred to as

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


Chapter 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting 173

situation analysis
iii. Exploratory interviews with informed persons outside the
firm are referred to as informal investigation
b. Using internal data
i. Marketers can find valuable data in their firm’s own
internal records such as sales records, financial
statements, and marketing cost analyses
ii. Sales analysis compares actual and expected sales
based on forecasts, often using sales quotas to look at
expected and actual results based on a detailed sales
forecast by territory, product, customer, and salesperson
iii. Other breakdowns divide transactions by customer type,
product, sales method, order type, or order size
iv. Sales analysis is one of the least expensive and most
important sources of marketing information
v. Accounting data, often summarized in financial
statements, can be used to compare current and
previous years against industry benchmarks
vi. Marketing cost analysis is the evaluation of expenses for
tasks such as selling, warehousing, advertising, and
delivery to determine profitability
vii. These forms of internal data are most useful when they
provide information linked to other forms of marketing
research
4. Formulate a hypothesis
a. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation for some specific event
b. It is a statement about the relationship among variables that
carries clear implications for testing this relationship
c. It sets the stage for in-depth research by clarifying what
researchers need to test
d. While not all studies test specific hypotheses, a carefully
designed study can benefit from a clear hypothesis set up
before beginning data collection and analysis
5. Create a research design
a. A research design is a master plan or model for conducting
marketing research
b. It helps clarify for marketers that the study will measure what
they want it to measure
c. It also allows for the selection of the respondents, or sample, to
be studied
6. Collect data
a. Marketing research gathers two kinds of data—secondary and
primary
b. Secondary data is information from previously published or
compiled sources (such as U.S. Census data)
c. Primary data is information collected for the first time specifically
for a marketing research study
d. Secondary data offers two important advantages:
i. It is less expensive to gather
ii. It takes less time to locate and use the data
e. Secondary data also has limitations:

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


174 Part 3 Target Market Selection

i. Published data can quickly become obsolete


ii. Data collected for an unrelated purpose may not be
completely relevant to the marketer’s specific needs
f. Firms decide on the type of data—primary or secondary—based
on cost, applicability, and effectiveness
7. Interpret and present research data
a. The final step is to interpret the findings and present them to
decision makers in a format that allows management to make
effective judgments
b. Differences in interpretation can arise due to differing
backgrounds, levels of knowledge, or experience
c. Oral and written reports should be used to minimize such
misinterpretation of data
d. Researchers and users must be determined to cooperate at
every stage and communicate directly
e. Studies may go unused because management thinks the results
are of little use or difficult to understand
f. Marketers should clearly spell out conclusions, avoid overly
technical language, and present results to all concerned at the
same time if possible
g. Decision makers can then quickly reach consensus on what the
results mean and what actions need to be taken

Assessment check questions

1. What are the six steps in the marketing research process? The marketing
research process can be divided into six specific steps: (1) defining the
problem, (2) conducting exploratory research, (3) formulating hypotheses, (4)
creating a research design, (5) collecting data, and (6) interpreting and
presenting the research information.

2. What is the goal of exploratory research? Exploratory research seeks to


discover the cause of a specific problem by discussing the problem with
informed sources within and outside the firm and examining data from other
information sources.

Chapter Objective 3: Distinguish between primary and secondary data and identify the sources of
each type.
Key Terms: none
PowerPoint Basic: 7, 8
PowerPoint Expanded: 16-18
1. Marketing research methods
a. Data collection is clearly an integral part of the process—without
it there would be no research
b. A time-consuming task is determining what method to use to
obtain data, usually either secondary or primary data collection
2. Secondary data collection
a. Most secondary data is available at little or no cost
b. The challenge is selecting from a wealth of sources only that
data which is relevant to the problem or issue being studied
c. Secondary data consists of two types:

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


Chapter 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting 175

i. Internal data includes sales records and activity reports,


product performance reviews, sales force activity report,
and marketing cost reports
ii. External data comes from government records,
syndicated research services, and industry publications
Note: If you were
3. Government data
asked to research on
the trends in U.S. a. The federal government is the nation’s most important source of
population in the past marketing data and Census data represents the most frequently
five decades, which used government statistics
sources would you b. The U.S. Census Bureau polls the American population every
use? ten years and provides results to the public for free
c. It also conducts periodic surveys of housing, population,
business, manufacturing, agriculture, mining, and governments
4. The 2010 U.S. Census
Solving an Ethical a. U.S. Census of Population offers vast information broken down
Controversy –Looking by small geographic areas or census tracts (segments that
into Census Bureau highlighting populations of 1,500 to 8,000 people with similar
Spending on traits)
Advertising b. Another resource is the Topographically Integrated Geographic
Should the Encoding and Referencing (TIGER) system, a government
government buy mapping database, which overlays topographic features
expensive advertising? (railroads, highways, rivers) with census data such as income
level
c. Other forms of federal government data:
i. Catalog of U.S. Government Publications (CGP)
ii. Survey of Current Business
iii. County and City Data Book
d. Beyond federal sources, data is also provided by state and city
governments as well as university bureaus of business and
economic research
5. Private data
a. Many organizations offer data through their own channels
i. Business and trade associations often offer data through
their publications
ii. Encyclopedia of Associations, available in many
libraries, lists trade associations
iii. The advertising industry continually publishes data on
various audiences
iv. Ulrich’s Guide to International Periodicals lists trade
publications that publish industry-specific research
v. Survey of Media Markets, published annually by a
business magazine, offers statistics on population,
effective buying income, and retail sales based on
geographic area
b. Data from trade journals can be gathered directly from the
publishers or through online periodical databases at libraries
such as ProQuest Direct’s ABI/Inform
c. Large libraries may have directories full of secondary data, such
as the FindEx market research directory
d. Some national firms offer information by subscription, such as
RoperASW, a global database service
e. Electronic systems that scan UPC bar codes also collect data

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176 Part 3 Target Market Selection

for inventory control, ordering, and delivery


f. Radio-frequency identification technology (RFID) is a new
technology that tracks individual purchases but involves major
privacy concerns, so it’s currently used for aggregate data only
g. ACNielsen SalesNet delivers scanner information from grocery
stores in commercially available databases directly to clients
6. Online sources of secondary data
a. Hundreds of databases and other sources of information are
available online
i. A well-designed, Internet-based marketing research
project can cost less yet yield faster results than offline
research
ii. The Internet has led to a growth in research
aggregators—companies that acquire, catalog, reformat,
segment, and then resell already-published premium
research reports
iii. Social networking sites yield valuable marketing
information
iv. Google Analytics is a business tool for measuring online
sales, tracking e-mail and ad campaigns, and
benchmarking key measures against competitors
v. It helps companies target online ads to people who
might be interested in them
vi. Researchers must evaluate the validity of the
information they find on the Internet
vii. The phrase caveat emptor (“let the buyer beware”)
should guide evaluation of secondary data on the
Internet

Assessment check questions

1. Distinguish between primary and secondary data. Primary data is original;


secondary data has been previously published.

2. What are the major methods of collecting secondary data? Sources of internal
data include sales records, product evaluation, sales force reports, and records
of marketing costs.

3. What are the major methods of collecting primary data? Three principal
methods of primary data collection are observation, survey, and experiment.

Chapter Objective 4: Explain the different sampling techniques used by marketing researchers.
Key Terms: sampling, population, universe, probability sample, simple random sample, stratified sample,
cluster sample, nonprobability sample, convenience sample, accidental sample, quota sample
PowerPoint Basic: 9, 10
PowerPoint Expanded: 19, 20
1. Sampling techniques
a. Sampling is the process of selecting survey respondents or
research participants
b. Sampling is important because, if a study fails to involve
consumers who accurately reflect the target market, the

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


Chapter 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting 177

research is likely to yield misleading conclusions


c. A population or universe is the total group of people the
researcher wants to study
d. Researchers rarely gather information from a study’s total
population, resulting in a census. Unless the total population is
small, the costs of a census are simply too high
e. Instead they work with a sample, a representative group chosen
from this population and classified as either probability or
nonprobability types
2. Probability sample
a. A probability sample gives every member of the population a
chance of being selected
b. Types of probability samples:
i. Simple random sample—every member of the relevant
universe has an equal opportunity of selection
ii. Stratified sample—randomly selected subsamples of
different groups represented in the total sample
iii. Cluster sample—researchers select areas (or clusters)
from which they draw respondents
3. Non-probability sample
a. A nonprobability sample relies on personal judgment in the
selection process as researchers decide what groups to study
b. Types of nonprobability samples:
i. Convenience sample—a group selected from readily
available respondents, also called an “accidental
sample” because those included just happened to be in
the place where the study was conducted
ii. Quota sample—respondents are chosen to maintain
representations for different segments or groups as
seen in the entire population

Assessment check questions

1. What is sampling? Sampling is the process of selecting representative survey


respondents or research participants from the total universe of possible
participants.

2. Explain the different types of probability samples. Types of probability samples


include simple random samples, stratified samples, and cluster samples.

3. Identify the types of nonprobability samples. Nonprobability samples are


convenience samples and quota samples.

Chapter Objective 5: Identify the methods by which marketing researchers collect primary data.
Key Terms: interpretative research, mall intercepts, focus groups, controlled experiment, test marketing
PowerPoint Basic: 11
PowerPoint Expanded: 21-31
1. Primary research methods
a. Marketers use a variety of methods for conducting primary
research, including observation, surveys, and controlled
experiments

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


178 Part 3 Target Market Selection

b. The choice of method depends on the issues under study and


the decisions that marketers need to make, so at times
researchers combine techniques during the process
2. Observation method
a. In observational studies, researchers view the overt actions of
Marketing Success –
the subjects studied, trying to understand how consumers
Mapping the Market
behave in certain situations
Would you like
b. Technological advances provide increasingly sophisticated ways
companies to track
for observing consumer behavior, such as electronic people
your location and
meters used by the TV industry to monitor viewing habits
suggest offers of
nearby restaurants / c. Other observational techniques include videotaping consumers
stores? in action, conducting focus groups, and asking consumer panels
to responding to certain queries in person or online
d. To understand what makes younger consumers tick, a trend-
forecasting firm called Teenage Research Unlimited (TRU) has
hired a panel of more than 300 teens to participate in focus
groups and research queries for its Trendwatch Panel
Figure 8.2 Types of e. Interpretative research
Primary Research. i. Interpretative research is a method in which a
Which type is the most researcher observes a customer or group of customers
subjective? The most in their natural setting
objective? What are
ii. The behavior is interpreted based on an understanding
the advantages of
of the social and cultural characteristics of that setting
each type?
3. Survey method
a. Observation alone cannot supply all of the desired information,
so researchers must ask questions to get information on
attitudes, motives, and opinions
b. Observation does not obtain exact demographic information—to
get that, researchers use interviews or questionnaires
c. Telephone interviews
i. Telephone interviews are a quick and inexpensive
method for obtaining a small quantity of relatively
impersonal information
ii. Simple, clearly worded questions are easy for
interviewers to pose over the phone and are effective at
drawing appropriate responses
iii. Telephone surveys have relatively high response rates,
particularly with repeated calling, and some firms use
computerized dialing and digitally synthesized voices
that interview respondents
iv. However, phone surveys have drawbacks: people
refuse to do them due to lack of time, the nuisance
factor, negative associations with telemarketing, or
poorly designed surveys
v. Also, results may be biased by the omission of certain
households, restricted numbers, or those with unlisted
numbers
vi. Caller ID and other electronic devices are designed to
block calls and act as obstacles to phone surveys
vii. Consumers are increasingly concerned about privacy
issues and information given over the phone
viii. Phone surveys can be useless in areas where
telephone ownership is rare, directories are lacking, or
charges are made when accepting calls; results in these

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


Chapter 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting 179

cases will be highly biased


d. Personal interviews
i. Personal interviews are the best method for obtaining
detailed information about consumers, as the
interviewer can establish rapport and explain confusing
or vague questions
ii. They may be conducted in homes but also at locations
allowing private interviewing space, often in shopping
centers in the form of mall intercepts
Note: Have you ever e. Focus groups
been involved in taking i. A focus group brings together eight to twelve individuals
a survey? Did you face in one location to discuss a subject for an hour or two
any difficulties? Did it with a moderator to stimulate conversation and
affect the accuracy encourage interaction
and validity of the
ii. Focus groups encourage discussion rather than using a
results?
question-and-answer format
iii. They are a quick and inexpensive method of gaining
insight into consumer attitudes and motivations
iv. In a focus group, the leader, or moderator, typically
suggests an opening topic. The moderator’s purpose is
to stimulate interaction among group members. It is a
difficult job that require preparation and group facilitation
skills
v. They are a valuable tool for exploratory research,
developing new-product ideas, and preliminary testing of
alternative marketing strategies, and can help to design
questionnaires for a larger-scale research
vi. Drawbacks of focus groups: some people may be
dishonest, affected by peer opinions and also
intimidating
vii. The environment may be sterile and unnatural, and the
small size may not be representative of the larger
population
viii. Online focus groups can be more cost and time efficient
than traditional formats, have better attendance, and are
less affected by peer pressure
ix. Drawbacks of online formats: lack of access to body
language or nonverbal cues, difficulty in testing
products, tendency toward nonrepresentative samples
f. Mail surveys
i. Mail surveys are a cost-effective alternative, providing
anonymity that may encourage respondents to give
candid answers
ii. They can help marketers track consumer attitudes
through ongoing research and may provide needed
demographic information
iii. Drawbacks: low response rate, slow response time,
complexity of the questions, no way to respond to
concerns, and the possibility of bias
iv. Mail surveys do better if questionnaires are very short
and an incentive is offered
g. Fax surveys
i. The low response rate of mail surveys has led to fax

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180 Part 3 Target Market Selection

surveys, either alone or supplementing other methods


ii. Most focus on business-related research studies
iii. Drawback: the federal junk fax law restricts faxes and
requires that the first page give directions on refusing
future attempts
h. Online surveys and other Internet-based methods
i. Using the Web allows researchers to speed the survey
process, increase sample sizes, ignore geographic
boundaries, and dramatically reduce costs
ii. Online surveys are less intrusive than phone surveys,
allowing respondents to take part at their convenience
iii. They are often considered novel and easy to do, leading
to higher response rates and becoming a popular and
cost-effective way to sample customer feedback
iv. Businesses often include questionnaires on their Web
sites to solicit information about consumer
demographics, attitudes, and their suggestions for
Career Readiness— improving the product and services or the marketing
Planning Effective messages
Online Surveys. v. Online polling is also increasingly popular
Think of a time you vi. There is no industry standard to measure Web site use,
came across an online while marketers try counting “hits”, track with cookies
survey. Did you have (now unpopular), try to value a site’s “stickiness”
any concerns? Did you (longer-lasting site visits), or ask visitors to register
participate?
vii. Observing consumers online offers marketers the
opportunity to monitor the buying decision process,
understand what turns a browser into a buyer, see how
shoppers compare product features, and grasp the
relative impacts on purchase decisions of marketing and
price
viii. However, research suggests that 50 percent of
marketing executives are unsure of the returns they are
getting
4. Experimental method
a. The least-used method for collecting primary data is the
controlled experiment
i. This is a scientific investigation in which a researcher
manipulates a test group and compares the results with
those of a control group that did not receive the
experimental manipulation
ii. The most common use of this method by marketers is
test marketing, or introducing a new product and then
observing its degree of success
iii. Test marketing may follow periods of information
gathering or focus groups, so it would be the first stage
at which a product performs in a real-life environment
iv. Some firms omit test marketing and go directly from
product development to full-scale production
b. Some drawbacks of test marketing:
i. It is an expensive operation
ii. Competitors quickly learn about the new product and
can develop competitive strategies
iii. Some products are not well suited to test marketing.

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Chapter 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting 181

Few firms test market long-lived, durable goods—such


as appliances and automobiles—because of the major
financial investments required for their development
c. Alternatives to test marketing:
i. Firms that skip test marketing can simulate a campaign
through computer-modeling software
ii. They might offer an item in just one region or country,
then adjust promotions and advertising based on local
results before expanding to other locations
iii. Similarly, they might limit a product’s introduction to only
one retail chain, then monitor results closely
Assessment check questions

1. What are the principal methods for collecting primary data? The principal
methods for collecting primary data are observation, surveys, and controlled
experiments.

2. Identify the different types of survey methods. Different survey methods may
include telephone interviews, personal interviews, focus groups, mail surveys,
fax surveys, and online or other Internet-based methods.

Chapter Objective 6: Explain the challenges of conducting marketing research in global markets.
Key Terms: ethnographic studies
PowerPoint Basic: 12, 13
PowerPoint Expanded: 32, 33
1. Conducting international marketing research
a. Though the steps are similar, new challenges arise when
gathering information about consumers in foreign markets
b. U.S. firms can tap many secondary resources when researching
global markets, particularly through the government
i. One major information source is the U.S. government,
which offers a wealth of information through its
dedicated Web site, Export.gov, It provides data by
country (more than 120 countries) and by industry (more
than 110 business sectors)
ii. The U.S. Department of Commerce offers one-click
access to business, trade, and economic information
through its STAT-USA® Web site, which features more
than 200,000 trade releases, international research
reports, country analyses, and trade and procurement
leads
2. Challenges of conducting international marketing research:
a. Language issues—communicating the message in the most
effective way
b. Cultural issues—capturing local citizens’ interests while avoiding
missteps that could unintentionally offend them
c. Business environment—political and economic conditions,
potential for growth, and trade regulations that affect research
studies and data collection
d. Some adjustment in the collection of data for primary research
may be necessary
i. Some methods do not easily transfer across national

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


182 Part 3 Target Market Selection

boundaries
ii. Face-to-face interviewing is the most common method
used outside the U.S.
iii. Mail surveys are usable only in developed countries,
otherwise they are useless due to low literacy rates,
unreliable mail service, and lack of address lists
iv. Telephone surveys may not be suitable in areas where
service is limited or phone ownership is rare
v. Focus groups may be difficult to arrange due to social
and cultural issues
e. Some firms tap local researchers or those experienced in global
studies to investigate foreign markets
3. Interpretative research
a. Interpretative research is an observational method developed by
social anthropologists to explain behavior that operates below
conscious thought
b. It provides insights into consumer behavior and the ways in
which consumers interact with brands
i. It is often called as ethnographic studies because the
researcher spends an extensive amount of time
studying the culture (“ethnographic” means a researcher
takes a cultural perspective of the population studied)
ii. For that reason, interpretative research is used
domestically to look at consumer behavior in a foreign
country, where language, ideals, values, and
expectations are subject to different influences
d. Interpretative research focuses on understanding the meaning
of a product or the consumption experience in a consumer’s life
e. It captures what they actually do, not what they say they do

Assessment check questions

1. What are some U.S. organizations that can serve as sources of international
secondary marketing data? The Departments of Commerce and State offer
reports and guides to many countries. Other sources include state trade offices,
small-business development centers, and U.S. embassies in various nations.

2. What is the most common method of primary data collection outside the
United States? Face-to-face interviewing remains the most common method for
conducting primary research outside the United States.

3. How is interpretative research typically conducted? Interpretative research


observes a customer or group of customers in their natural setting and interprets
their behavior based on social and cultural characteristics of that setting.

4. When should ethnographic research be employed? Ethnographic research is


used to look at the consumer behavior of different groups of people.

Chapter Objective 7: Outline the most important uses of computer technology in marketing
research.
Key Terms: marketing information system (MIS), marketing decision support system (MDSS), data
mining, data warehouse

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


Chapter 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting 183

PowerPoint Basic: 14-18


PowerPoint Expanded: 34-38
1. Computer technology in marketing research
a. The ability to quickly gather and analyze business intelligence
can create a substantial strategic advantage
b. Computer databases, whether internal or maintained outside the
firm, can be designed to gather facts about a firm’s consumers
c. Computer technology assists with the marketing information
system (MIS), marketing decision support system (MDSS), data
mining, business intelligence, and competitive intelligence
2. Marketing information systems (MISs)
a. Managers used to complain there was too much to sort through,
data was irrelevant, or information was impossible to find
b. A marketing information system (MIS) is a planned computer-
based system that provides decision makers with a continuous
flow of information relevant to their areas of responsibility
c. A well constructed marketing information system serves as a
nerve center, continually monitoring both internal and external
market environments and providing instantaneous information
d. Marketers are able to store the data for later use, classify and
analyze that data, and retrieve it easily when needed
3. Marketing decision support systems (MDSSs)
a. A marketing decision support system (MDSS) consists of
software that helps users quickly obtain and apply information
as a foundation for decision making
b. It allows managers to connect such diverse information as the
state of the market, consumer behavior, sales forecasts, actions
of competitors, and environmental changes
c. MDSS has four major characteristics: it is interactive,
investigative, flexible, and accessible
d. It can create simulations or models to illustrate the likely results
of changes in marketing strategies or market conditions
e. While the MIS provides raw data, the MDSS develops transform
that data into useful information
4. Data mining
a. Data mining is the process of searching customer files to detect
patterns, identifying relationships not obvious to marketers, and
in a sense answering questions never asked
b. Data mining is a way to sort through huge amounts of data
stored in a data warehouse and make sense of it, find patterns,
and use that intelligence to review effectiveness of strategies
c. It helps marketers create customer profiles, pinpoint reasons for
customer loyalty (or lack of loyalty), analyze the potential returns
on price and promotion changes, and forecast sales
5. Business intelligence
a. Business intelligence is the process of gathering and analyzing
information to improve strategies, tactics, and daily operations
b. It can report on a firm’s sales operation or focus on finding
information about competitors
c. The key is collecting precise information and getting it into a
format that managers can understand and use
6. Competitive intelligence

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184 Part 3 Target Market Selection

a. Competitive intelligence is a form of business intelligence that


focuses on finding information about competitors
b. It uses published sources, interviews, observations, government
agencies, public filings, and other secondary sources including
information found on Internet
c. The aim is to uncover the specific advantages of competitors
d. Marketers use the results to make better decisions that
strengthen their own competitive advantage

Assessment check questions

1. Distinguish between an MIS and an MDSS. A marketing information system


(MIS) is a planned computer-based system designed to provide managers with
a continuous flow of information relevant to their specific decision-making needs
and areas of responsibility. A marketing decision support system (MDSS) is a
marketing information system component that links a decision maker with
relevant databases and analysis tools to help ask “what if” questions.

2. What is data mining? Data mining is the process of searching through huge
consumer information files or data warehouses to detect patterns that can help
marketers ask the right questions and guide marketing decision making.

3. Describe the process of collecting business and competitive intelligence.


Business intelligence is the process of gathering information and analyzing it to
improve business strategy, tactics, and daily operations. Competitive
intelligence focuses on finding information about competitors using published
sources, interviews, observations by salespeople and suppliers in the industry,
government agencies, public filings such as patent applications, and other
secondary methods including the Internet.

Chapter Objective 8: Identify the major types of forecasting methods.


Key Terms: sales forecast, qualitative forecasting, quantitative forecasting, jury of executive opinion,
Delphi technique, sales force composite, survey of buyer intentions, trend analysis, exponential
smoothing
PowerPoint Basic: 19, 20
PowerPoint Expanded: 39-41
Table 8.1 A Sampling 1. Sales forecasting
of Sales Forecasting a. A sales forecast is an estimate of a firm’s revenue for a specified
Software Programs future period
What are the b. Forecasts play major roles in new-product development,
advantages of sales production scheduling, financial planning, inventory planning
forecasting software’s? and procurement, distribution, and human resource planning
What would you do if
c. An inaccurate forecast can lead to poor or incorrect decisions in
your forecast went
these areas
wrong?
d. Marketing research techniques are used to create and deliver
effective sales forecasts
e. A sales forecast is also an important tool for marketing control
because it sets standards against which to measure actual
Table 8.2 Benefits and performance. Without such standards, no comparisons can be
Limitations of Various made
Forecasting f. A short-run forecast covers up to one year, an intermediate
Techniques. Which forecast covers one to five years, and a long-run forecast
techniques would be extends beyond five years

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


Chapter 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting 185

best for a firm with a g. Types of sales forecasting methods:


limited budget? For a i. Qualitative forecasts—techniques that rely on subjective
firm with a time data rather than exact historical data
crunch? For a firm
ii. Quantitative forecasts—techniques that rely on
willing to pay for
statistical computations
detailed and realistic
information? iii. Each method has benefits and limitations; most firms
rely on a combination of the two
2. Qualitative forecasting techniques
a. Planners use qualitative forecasting techniques when they want
judgmental or subjective indicators
b. They include jury of executive opinion, Delphi technique, sales
force composite, and survey of buyer intentions
c. Jury of executive opinion
i. The jury of executive opinion technique combines and
averages the outlooks of top executives from each of
the functional areas of the firm
ii. It is a quick and inexpensive method that often
generates good forecasts for sales and new-product
development
iii. It works best for short-term forecasting
d. Delphi technique
i. The Delphi technique solicits opinions from several
people, but also gathers thoughts from experts outside
the firm, such as academic researchers
ii. It is most appropriately used to predict long-run issues,
such as technological breakthroughs, that could affect
future sales and market potential for new products
iii. A firm selects a panel of experts and sends each a
questionnaire, combines and averages answers,
develops another questionnaire based on the results,
and sends it back to the same people
iv. The process continues until it identifies a consensus, so
the this technique is expensive and time-consuming
e. Sales force composite
i. The sales force composite technique develops forecasts
based on the belief that organization members closest
to the marketplace offer the best insights concerning
short-term future sales
ii. These forecasts typically work from the bottom up
iii. Drawbacks: forecasts are conservative because their
numbers ultimately determine sales quotas, or they are
based on a narrow perspective or geographic territory
iv. This method works well only in combination with other
techniques
f. Survey of buyer intentions
i. A survey of buyer intentions gathers input through mail-
in questionnaires, online feedback, telephone polls, and
personal interviews to determine the purchasing
intentions of a representative group of present and
potential customers
ii. It is impractical for firms with millions of customers but
works well for those with a limited number of customers

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


186 Part 3 Target Market Selection

iii. Buyer surveys gather useful information only when


customers willingly reveal their buying intentions and
may help a firm predict short-run or intermediate sales
iv. Drawbacks: Customers’ buying intentions may not
translate into actual purchases, is a time-consuming and
expensive process
3. Quantitative forecasting techniques
a. Quantitative techniques attempt to eliminate the subjectiveness
of the qualitative methods. They include such methods as test
markets, trend analysis, and exponential smoothing
b. Test Markets
i. Test markets gauge and assess consumer response to
a new product under actual marketplace conditions
ii. Different prices, alternative promotion strategies, and
other marketing mix variations can be evaluated
iii. The primary advantage is that they provide realism
iv. Drawbacks: they are expensive and time-consuming
experiments that may unwittingly signal marketing plans
to competitors
c. Trend analysis
i. Trend analysis develops sales forecasts by analyzing
the historical relationship between sales and time
ii. It implicitly assumes that the collective causes of past
sales will continue to exert similar influence in the future
iii. When historical data is available, trend analysis is a
relatively quick and inexpensive technique
iv. Drawbacks: It cannot be used without historical data,
(such as for new-product forecasting) and the quality of
the forecast is only as good as the data available
v. It makes the dangerous assumption that future events
will continue in the same manner as the past
vi. But it does give reliable forecasts during periods of
steady growth and stable demand
d. Exponential smoothing
i. Exponential smoothing is a sophisticated version of
trend analysis, weighing each year’s sales data and
giving greater weight to results from most recent years
ii. It is considered the most commonly used quantitative
forecasting technique
4. Strategic Implications of Marketing in the 21st Century
a. Marketing research helps marketers understand the market
needs and incorporate their understanding while devising
effective marketing strategies
b. Marketing research ideally matches new products to potential
customers
c. Marketing research techniques fine-tune market strategies
through a set of activities that match new products to potential
customers, analyze sales, gauge performance of existing
products, study consumer responses pre-and post-launch of
product, guide promotions
d. Finally, they help in improving all aspects of business operations
and understand every customer

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


Chapter 8 Marketing Research and Sales Forecasting 187

Assessment check questions

1. Describe the jury of executive opinion. The jury of executive opinion combines
and averages the outlooks of top executives from areas such as marketing,
finance, production, and purchasing.

2. What is the Delphi technique? The Delphi technique solicits opinions from
several people but also includes input from experts outside the firm such as
academic researchers.

3. How does the exponential smoothing technique forecast sales? Exponential


smoothing weighs each year’s sales data, giving greater weight to results from
the most recent years.

ANSWERS AND TEACHING NOTES TO CHAPTER EXERCISES

Chapter 8 Assurance of Learning Review

1. Outline the development and current status of the marketing research function.

In 1879 the first organized marketing research project took place. In the early 20th century, the first
commercial research department was established. Early research was unsophisticated until the 1930s,
when statistical methods led to improved sampling techniques. Today, most leading U.S. manufacturers
have marketing research departments, and the size and organizational form of the marketing research
function are usually tied to the firm’s structure. Firms now organize research units by product lines,
brands, geographic areas, or the type of research needed. Advances in computer technology have led to
significant changes in data collection, simulations, and analysis.

2. What are the differences between full-service and limited-service research suppliers?

Full-service research suppliers are organizations that contract with clients to conduct complete marketing
research projects (providing qualitative and quantitative data from field studies, face-to-face and phone
interviews, online surveys, as well as public opinion polls, etc.) Limited-service research suppliers are
marketing research firms that specialize in a limited number of activities, such as conducting field
interviews, testing promotional materials, or doing data processing.

3. List and explain the steps in the marketing research process. Trace a hypothetical study through the
stages in this process.

The steps in the marketing research process include the following: defining the problem, conducting
exploratory research, formulating a hypothesis, creating a research design, collecting data, and
interpreting and presenting the research information. The chances of making good decisions improve
when the right information is provided at the right time during the marketing research process.

Imagine that the management at a firm making refrigerated cookie dough, would perceive the need for
more information if the product’s market share dropped from 10 to 6 percent this year. To define the
problem, the firm looks for underlying causes of market share loss. It conducts exploratory research,
discussing the problem with informed sources within the firm and with wholesalers, retailers, customers,
and others outside the firm. It also examines secondary data sources. Through its customer and retailer
research, it learns that consumers are dissatisfied with the texture of the dough. Customers pointed to
this as a major difference between the firm’s brand and other more successful market brands. Based on

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


188 Part 3 Target Market Selection

this information, managers formulate a hypothesis: to regain market share, they will improve the
crispness of their cookie dough. To test this hypothesis, managers create a research design involving a
new dough recipe and choose three cities—say, Chicago, Milwaukee, and Cleveland—as test markets.

Sales are analyzed every month over a three-month period. Secondary data from government and
commercial sources are also collected to determine if the market for cookie dough is growing or leveling
off. It could be that health and fitness concerns have impacted its sale. The firm is particularly interested
in tracing how the percentage of single women who are also heads-of-households had changed over the
past year. In the interpretation and presentation phase, marketers draw conclusions about the collected
information. Based on results in test market cities, they decide to market the reformulated product
throughout the U.S. They introduce the change in a nationwide advertising campaign aimed particularly
at the growing market of single women who are also heads-of-households.

4. Distinguish between primary and secondary data. When should researchers collect each type of data?

Primary data is information collected for the first time specifically for a marketing research study, through
observation, survey, or controlled experiment. Secondary data is information from previously published or
compiled sources (such as U.S. Census data), so it has the advantage of being less expensive to gather
and taking less time to locate and use. Researchers should collect primary data when specific and up-to-
date information is critical to their analysis, when they have sufficient time and money to conduct the
analysis; and when the good or service warrants the expense. They should collect secondary data when
they want abundant and relatively inexpensive information quickly. But they need to consider that data
collected for an unrelated purpose may not be completely relevant to the marketer’s specific needs, and
published data can quickly become obsolete.

5. What is sampling? Explain the differences between probability and nonprobability samples and identify
the various types of each.

Sampling is the process of selecting survey respondents or research participants. A probability sample is
one in which every member of the population has a chance of being selected (including random samples,
stratified samples, and cluster samples). A nonprobability sample relies on personal judgment in the
selection process (including convenience and quota samples).

6. Distinguish among surveys, experiments, and observational methods of primary data collection. Cite
examples of each method.

Surveys are primary data collection methods in which data are collected (through personal or telephone
interviews, or mail, fax, or online questionnaire responses). Observational studies are conducted by
actually viewing the overt actions of respondents, and understanding how consumers behave in certain
situations (through personal observation or mechanical techniques). Experiments, the least used
methods, are scientific investigations in which the researcher controls or manipulates a study (through a
test group, comparing its results with those of a control group).

7. Define and give an example of each of the methods of gathering survey data. Under what
circumstances should researchers choose a specific approach?

The five methods of gathering survey data are personal interviews, telephone interviews, mail surveys,
fax surveys, and online surveys. Personal interviews should be used when the interviewer needs to get
detailed information from the respondent. Telephone interviews should be used when a quick and
inexpensive way of obtaining small amounts of relatively impersonal information is needed. Mail surveys
should be used to get national data at a reasonable cost. Fax surveys should be used when speed is
critical, often to survey businesses rather than individual households. Online surveys should be used to

Copyright ©2013 by South-Western, a division of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.


Another random document with
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The day afterwards El Hakim and I rode into Nairobi, accompanied
by some of the men, and brought back twelve days’ rations of
m’chele (rice) for our safari, as we intended starting the following
day. Kriger and Knapp decided to come with us on a little pleasure
trip as far as Doenyo Sabuk, a bold, rounded prominence, rising
some 800 feet above the level of the plain, the summit being over
6000 feet above sea-level, lying about four days’ journey to the
north.
CHAPTER II.
FROM KRIGER’S TO MARANGA.

Oil to Doenyo Sabuk—Troubles of a safari—George takes a bath—


The Nairobi Falls—Eaten by ticks—My argument with a
rhinoceros—The Athi River—Good fishing—Lions—Camp near
Doenyo Sabuk—We find the Athi in flood—We build a raft—
Kriger and Knapp bid us adieu—Failure of our raft—We cross the
Athi—I open a box of cigars—Crossing the Thika-Thika—Bad
country—We unexpectedly reach the Tana—The détour to the
Maragua—Crossing the Maragua—In Kikuyuland.
Kriger and Knapp joined us on the morning of June 7th, and at 2
p.m. we set out on our eventful journey. It was rather a rush at the
last moment, as so many things required adjustment. It was
impossible to foresee everything. I stopped behind as whipper-in for
the first few days, as the porters required something of the sort at the
commencement of a safari, in order to prevent desertions, and also
to assist those who fell out from fatigue.
On the first day I had a lot of trouble. The donkeys annoyed me
considerably; they were not used to their loads, and consequently
they kept slipping (the loads, not the donkeys), requiring constant
attention.
The porters also were very soft after their long carouse in the
bazaar, and every few yards one or another sat down beside his
load, and swore, by all the saints in his own particular calendar, that
he could not, and would not, go a step farther. It was my unpleasant
duty to persuade them otherwise. The consequence was, that on the
evening of the first day I got into a camp an hour after the others,
quite tired out. It was delightful to find dinner all ready and waiting.
To misquote Kipling, I “didn’t keep it waiting very long.”
The next morning we crossed one of the tributaries of the Athi
River. It was thickly overgrown from bank to bank with papyrus
reeds, and we were consequently obliged to cut a passage. The
donkeys had also to be unloaded, and their loads carried across. We
got wet up to the knees in the cold, slimy water, which did not add to
our comfort. We passed a rhinoceros on the road, but did not stop to
shoot him as we were not in want of meat.
Crossing another river an hour or so later, we made the passage
easily by the simple expedient of wading across up to our middles,
without troubling to undress or take our boots off; all except George,
who was riding the mule. He declared that he “wasn’t going to get
wet!” we could be “silly cuckoos” if we liked! he was “going to ride
across.” He attempted it; halfway across the mule slipped into deep
water, plunged furiously to recover itself, broke the girth, and George
and the mule made a glorious dive together into ten feet of water.
Jumping in, I succeeded in getting hold of the mule’s head while
George scrambled ashore, gasping with cold. In the mean time
Kriger and Knapp with El Hakim had got some distance ahead,
leaving George and myself to see the safari safely across. When we
reached the other side we found ourselves in a swamp, through
which we had to wade for over a mile before reaching firm ground.
Then the porters struck in a body, saying they were done up and
utterly exhausted, and could go no further. I eventually convinced
them, not without a certain amount of difficulty, however, that it would
be to their interest to go on.
Soon afterwards I got a touch of sun, and my head ached horribly.
I then fastened the saddle on the mule with one of the stirrup straps,
and rode some of the way. We reached the Nairobi River towards the
close of the afternoon, and crossed by clambering over the boulders
plentifully strewn about the river bed. Just below were the Nairobi
Falls, which are about 100 feet deep, and extremely beautiful.
At the foot of the Falls the river flows through a deep, rocky glen,
which in point of beauty would take a first prize almost anywhere.
Great water-worn boulders, clothed with grey-green and purple
mosses, among which the water trickled and sparkled in tiny musical
cascades; ferns of rare beauty, and flowers of rich and varied hues,
gave an artistic finish to the whole; an effect still further accentuated
by the feathery tops of the graceful palms and tree ferns that grew
boldly out from the steep and rocky sides of that miniature paradise.
We found the others had camped a few yards away from the Falls.
Kriger and Knapp had been fishing, and had caught a lot of fine fish;
Kriger had also shot a congoni. I had my tent pitched, and
immediately turned in, as I felt very tired and feverish. Walking in a
broiling sun, and shouting at recalcitrant porters for eight and a half
hours, on an empty stomach, is not calculated to improve one
physically or morally.
After a good night’s sleep I felt much better, and decided to walk
when we made a start next morning, handing the mule over to
George, who had been very seedy ever since we left Nairobi, the
result of his recent severe illness in Uganda. When the tents were
struck, we headed due northwards to Doenyo Sabuk, which was now
beginning to show up more clearly on the horizon. It was about
twenty miles distant, and we calculated that two days’ further
marching would take us round it.
Soon after we started Knapp shot a guinea-fowl. He used a
Winchester repeating shot-gun, a perfectly horrible contrivance, of
which he was very proud. When the cartridges were ejected it
clanked and rattled like a collection of scrap iron being shaken in a
sack.
During that march we had a maddening time with the ticks, with
which the Athi plains are infested. They were large, flat, red ticks,
similar to those I have seen in Rhodesia (Ixodes plumbeus?). They
clung to our clothing and persons like limpets to a rock. We should
not have minded a dozen or two, at least not so much, but they
swarmed on us literally in thousands. We halted every few moments
while Ramathani brushed us down, but, so soon as we were
comparatively cleared of them, we picked up a fresh batch from the
long grass. They bite very badly, and taking them by and large, as a
sailor would say, they were very powerful and vigorous vermin;
almost as vigorous as the language we wasted upon them.
About an hour after we started we sighted a rhinoceros fast asleep
in the grass, about three hundred yards down wind. George and I
examined him with the binoculars—the others were a mile ahead—
and as we were not out looking for rhinoceros just then, we passed
on. We had proceeded barely a quarter of a mile when a confused
shouting from the rear caused us to look round. The sleeping
rhinoceros had wakened, and proceeded to impress the fact upon
the safari. Having winded the men he incontinently charged them,
and when George and I glanced back we saw the ungainly brute
trotting backwards and forwards among our loads, which the men
had hurriedly dropped while they scattered for dear life over the
landscape. It was certainly very awkward, as it looked very much as
if I should have to go back and slay it, which, I will confess, I was
very loth to do, as Ramathani was some distance ahead with all my
spare ammunition. The magazine of my ·303 contained only half a
dozen cartridges, with soft-nosed bullets. I diplomatically waited a
while to see if the brute felt disposed to move; but it was apparently
perfectly satisfied with its immediate surroundings, and stood over
the deserted loads snorting and stamping and looking exceedingly
ugly.
The cattle and donkeys, which were under Jumbi’s charge, were
also coming up. Jumbi came as near as he dared, and then halted,
and waited in the rear till it should please the Bwana (meaning me)
to drive the “kifaru” away. The rest of the porters having scuttled to
what they considered a safe distance, sat down to await events with
a stolid composure born of utter irresponsibility.
I felt, under the circumstances, that it was incumbent upon me to
do something, it being so evidently expected; so I advanced towards
the rhinoceros, not without some inward trepidation, as I greatly
distrusted the ·303. Walking to within fifty yards of the spot where it
was stamping defiance, I shouted at it, and said shoo! as sometimes
that will drive them away. It did not move this beast, however, so,
mentally donning the black cap, I took careful aim, and planked a
bullet in his shoulder! If it was undecided before the beast soon
made up its mind then, and, jumping round like a cat, came straight
for me at a gallop, head down, ears and tail erect, and a nasty
vicious business-like look about the tip of his horn that gave me cold
chills down the spine. I don’t wish to deny that I involuntarily turned
and ran—almost anybody would, if they obeyed first impulses. I ran
a few yards, but reason returned, and I remembered El Hakim’s
warning that to run under such circumstances was almost invariably
fatal. I turned off sharply to the right, like the hunters in the story
books, hoping that my pursuer would pass me, and try one of the
porters; but he wouldn’t; he had only one desire in the wide, wide
world, and that was to interview me. I, on the other hand, was
equally anxious not to be interviewed, but I must admit that at the
moment I did not quite see how I was to avoid it. He was getting
closer and closer at each stride, so there being logically no other
way, I stopped and faced him.
I therefore knelt down and worked my magazine for all I was
worth, fervently hoping that it would not jam. In less than ten
seconds I put four bullets into the enraged animal at short range. All
four took effect, as I distinctly saw the dust spurt from his hide in little
puffs where they struck. At the fourth shot he swerved aside, when
within fifteen yards of me, and as he turned I gave him my sixth and
last cartridge in the flank to hasten his departure; and very glad
indeed I was to see him go. He had six bullets in various parts of his
anatomy; but I expect they did little more than break the skin, though
the shock probably surprised him. He disappeared over a rise in the
ground a mile away, still going strong; while I assumed a nonchalant
and slightly bored air, and languidly ordered the men to take up their
scattered loads and resume the march.
An hour or so after we reached and crossed the Athi River. It was
a hot and dusty tramp. Kriger being some miles ahead, had, with a
laudable desire to guide us, fired the grass on his way. The result
was hardly what he anticipated. The immense clouds of smoke gave
us our direction perfectly well, but the fire barred our progress. Quite
half a dozen times we had to rush through a gap in the flames, half
choked and slightly singed. Once or twice I thought we should never
get the mules or donkeys through at all, but we chivied them past the
fire somehow. The burnt ground on the other side was simply
horrible to walk on. I fully realized what the sensations of the “cat on
hot bricks” of the proverb were. Kriger meant well, but, strange to
say, neither George nor I felt at all thankful. As a matter of fact, our
language was at times as hot as the ground underfoot, not so much
on our own account as on that of our poor barefooted men.
The Athi was not very wide at the point where we crossed, but a
little distance lower down it becomes a broad and noble stream
flowing round the north side of Doenyo Sabuk till it joins the T’savo
River about 120 miles south-east of that mountain, the two
combining to form the Sabaki, which flows into the sea at Milindi.
The Athi is full of fish, and we saw fresh hippopotamus’ tracks near
the spot where we camped at midday.
After lunch George and I went fishing with Kriger and Knapp: net
result about 40 lbs. of fine fish, a large eel, and a mud turtle.
Afterwards Kriger and I went out shooting. We were very unlucky.
Out on the plains towards Doenyo Sabuk we saw vast herds of
game, including congoni, thompsonei, zebra, impala, and water-
buck, but the country was perfectly flat and open and the wind most
vexatiously variable, so that, do what we would, we could not get
within range. I managed to bag a hare with the before-mentioned
piece of mechanism which Knapp miscalled a shot-gun. Soon
afterwards we were traversing some broken rocky ground when
Kriger suddenly exclaimed, “Look, there are some wild pig!” We
started after them, and got within a hundred yards before we
discovered that the supposed wild pig were a magnificent black-
maned lion and four lionesses. They spotted us almost as soon as
we had seen them, and when we tried to get near enough for a shot
they walked into a patch of tall reeds and remained there growling,
nor would they show themselves again. We did not think it good
enough to tackle five lions in thick reeds, so we reluctantly withdrew.
Kriger had shot a lion some months previously, and was attacked
and badly mauled by the lioness while examining the prostrate body
of his quarry, his left arm being bitten through in several places. He
struggled with her for some minutes, forcing his arm between her
open jaws, and thereby preventing her from seizing his shoulder or
throat. His life was only saved by a sudden fall backwards over a
bank which was concealed by the undergrowth. The lioness was so
surprised by his complete and utterly unexpected disappearance
that, casting a bewildered look around, she turned and fled.
We continued our hunt for game, and presently Kriger wounded a
congoni. It appeared very badly hit, and we followed it for several
miles in the hope that it would drop; but it seemed to get stronger
with every step, and finally, to our great disgust and disappointment,
joined a herd and galloped away, while we sat down on the hard cold
ground and bemoaned our luck. On the way back to camp—and a
weary walk it was—we shot another solitary congoni at three
hundred yards’ range, and fortunately hit him; but we put three
bullets each into the beast before it dropped, so remarkably
tenacious of life are these animals. We returned to camp at dusk,
thoroughly tired out. I retired to rest immediately after dinner, thus
concluding a not entirely uneventful day.
We did not march the next day, as El Hakim wished to examine
the surrounding country from a farming and stock-raising point of
view. He and Kriger rode off on the mules after breakfast with that
intention. Knapp and I went fishing, while George—sensible chap—
laid himself on the grass in the shade and watched us. Knapp caught
one very fine fish weighing over 9 lbs., while I caught only two small
fish and a sharp attack of fever. I returned to camp and climbed into
my blankets. In an hour and a half my temperature rose to 105°, and
I felt very queer indeed; but towards evening I recovered sufficiently
to eat a little. El Hakim and Kriger returned at 6 p.m., having
explored the adjacent country to their satisfaction, and on their return
journey they shot a zebra and a congoni. Zebra meat is excellent
eating, especially if it has been hung for three or four days. When
cooked it is firm and white, in appearance somewhat resembling
veal. We always secured the strip of flesh on each side of the
backbone, called by the Swahilis “salala” (saddle), and also the
under-cut, or “salala n’dani” (inside saddle), for our private
consumption. The kidneys are very large, as big as one’s fist; and
they, as are also the brains, are excellent eating when fried in hippo
fat.
We started at 7 a.m. on the following morning, El Hakim, Kriger,
and Knapp going a long way ahead, leaving George and myself with
the big mule, to look after the safari. George was still so queer that
he could hardly sit on the mule. He was constantly vomiting, and at
every fresh paroxysm the mule shied, so that poor George had
anything but a cheerful time. I did not know the way, and depended
wholly for guidance on the spoor of the others who had started early.
Soon after starting, a pair of rhinoceros charged us, scattering the
safari far and wide over the plain in a medley of men, loads,
donkeys, and cattle. I went back with the 8-bore, which I had kept
close to me since my experience two days before, but before I could
get near them they made off again, nearly getting foul of Jumbi in
their retreat. He had hidden himself in the grass, and they passed
within a dozen yards of him without becoming aware of his presence.
I have mentioned that I was depending for guidance on the spoor
of that portion of the caravan which had preceded me, so it can be
imagined that I was exceedingly surprised to come upon a party of
the men who had left camp before me, sitting down waiting for me to
come up. On being questioned they stated that the “m’sungu” (white
men) were “huko m’beli” (somewhere ahead), but as they had
lagged behind, and so lost them, they had waited for me to come up
and show them the way. I was in something of a quandary, as, the
ground being very rough and stony, no tracks were visible. After a
moment’s consideration I decided to make for the north end of
Doenyo Sabuk, which was quite near, as I knew the others intended
going somewhere in that direction. On the road I stalked and shot a
congoni, but my Swahili aristocrats refused to touch the meat, as I,
and not they, had cut its throat, consequently it was “haran” (i.e.
sinful, forbidden). They were much less fastidious later on, and ate
with avidity far less palatable food than freshly killed congoni.
After a solid eight hours’ march I came up with the others. They
had camped on the right bank of the Athi, which at this place is very
broad and deep. It makes a vast curve here from due north to south-
east, so that we were still on the wrong side of it, and would have to
recross it in order to reach the Tana River. Kriger and Knapp were,
as usual, fishing, and had caught some magnificent fish, averaging 9
lbs. to 10 lbs. each. On our arrival in camp, George and I had a
refreshing wash and a cup of tea, which revived us considerably. In
the evening I shot a crested crane (Belearica Pavonina) with the
·303. George went to bed early, as he was very weak and
exhausted; I did not feel very bright either, after the smart attack of
fever I had had the day before, coupled with that day’s eight-hour
tramp in a blazing sun.
We did not move on the following day, as El Hakim wished to
examine the surrounding country. He and Kriger accordingly saddled
up the mules and made another excursion. They saw a leopard on
the road about a mile out of camp, but the man who was carrying
their guns was, unfortunately, some distance in the rear at the time. I
believe El Hakim used bad language, but I could not say for certain,
though I do know the gun-bearer looked very sorry for himself when
they returned to camp in the evening. They saw some very pretty
falls on the river lower down, situated in the midst of a very lovely
stretch of park-like scenery. El Hakim was quite enthusiastic about
them.
We spent the next day looking for a place to cross the river. It was
from this camp that Kriger and Knapp were to return to their station,
and our journey was really to begin. We examined a ford that Kriger
knew of, two hours’ journey up the river, but found the river in flood
and the ford deep water. On the way back El Hakim shot a congoni,
which gave us a much-needed supply of fresh meat. As there
seemed no other way out of the difficulty, we decided to build a raft.
We found it a very tough task, there being no material at hand, as
the wood growing near was all mimosa thorn, so hard and heavy
when green that it will hardly float in water. We spent all the
afternoon, waist-deep in the river, lashing logs together with strips of
raw hide cut from the congoni skins. When the raft was finished, just
before sundown, it looked very clumsy and unserviceable, and we
had very grave doubts of its utility, as the volume of water in the river
was very great, and the pressure on such an unwieldy structure was
bound to be enormous—much more than any rope of ours would
stand. However, that was a question that the morrow would decide;
so we moored the raft to an island a few yards from the bank, and
went back to camp for dinner.
We dined on the crane I had shot two days before. It was as large
as a small turkey, and splendid eating, though my ·303 had rather
damaged it. El Hakim and I sat up late into the night, making final
arrangements and writing letters, which Kriger was to take back with
him next morning, when we intended to make a determined effort to
cross the river en route for Mount Kenia and the “beyond.”
Kriger and Knapp returned to Nairobi early on the morning of June
14th. They took our remaining cattle back, as we found them too
much trouble, and El Hakim had others at Munithu, in North Kenia,
which we could use if we required them for trade purposes. We bade
them adieu, and they returned the compliment, wishing us all kinds
of luck. They then departed on their homeward journey.

THE ATHI RIVER NEAR DOENYO SABUK.


CROSSING AN AFFLUENT OF THE SAGANA. (See page 50.)

We found our raft waterlogged and almost entirely useless, but we


determined to try what we could do with it. We had great difficulty in
persuading the men to go into the water, but managed it at last, and
got a rope across the river with which to haul the raft over. We put
two loads on it, and though they were got safely across they were
soaked through, and once or twice very nearly lost. When we tried to
haul our raft back the rope parted, and the unholy contrivance we
had spent so much time and labour upon drifted rapidly down-
stream, and was lost to sight.
We abandoned the idea of crossing by raft—especially as there
was then no raft to play with—and so we prospected up the river-
bank for some little distance, and eventually discovered a place that
promised a better crossing than any we had previously seen. There
were two or three small islands near the hither bank of the river,
which narrowed it to more manageable proportions, and by lunch-
time we had rigged the rope across the main channel. After lunch we
all stripped, and prepared for an afternoon’s hard work; nor were we
disappointed. The stream, breast-deep, was running like a mill-race.
Its bed was composed of flat slabs of granite polished to the
smoothness of glass by the constant water-friction. Strewn here and
there were smooth water-worn boulders with deep holes between,
which made the crossing both difficult and dangerous. By dint of half
wading and half swimming, holding on to the rope for safety, we
managed with incredible labour to get all the loads across without
accident.
Getting the mules and donkeys across was a still more difficult
task. They absolutely refused to face the water, and had to be forced
in. Once in, though, they did their best to get across. The mules and
four of the donkeys succeeded after a severe struggle, but the other
two donkeys were swept away down-stream. We were unwilling to
lose them, so I swam down the river with them, trying to head them
towards the opposite bank. I succeeded at last in forcing them under
the bank a quarter of a mile or so lower down stream; but at that
place it was perfectly perpendicular, and there we stood, the two
donkeys and myself, up to our necks in water on a submerged ledge
about two feet wide, on one side of us the swiftly rushing river, which
none of us wished to face again, and on the other side a perfectly
unclimbable bank, topped with dense jungle. I thought of crocodiles,
as there were, and are, a great many in the Athi River, and I went
cold all over, and wished most heartily that I was somewhere else. I
shouted for the men, and presently heard their voices from the top of
the bank overhead; they could not reach me, however, as the jungle
was so thickly interlaced as to be impenetrable. They tried to cut a
way down to me, but gave it up as impossible; besides, they could
not have got the donkeys out that way, anyhow.
I grew more than a little anxious about the donkeys, as I was
afraid they would lose heart and let themselves drown. Donkeys are
like that sometimes when they are in difficulties. I clung to the ears of
my two, and held their heads above water by main force. I got cold
and chilled, while thoughts of crocodiles would come into my head.
Once a submerged log drifted past beneath the surface, and in
passing grazed my thigh. I turned actually sick with apprehension,
but it went on with the current, and left me shivering as with ague. I
ordered some of the men to get into the river and swim down to me,
and presently they arrived. I immediately felt much better, as I
reflected that my chances of being seized were now considerably
lessened.
When I had got half a dozen men down, we took the donkeys by
the ears and tails, and half towed, half pushed them up-stream
against the current, and successfully landed them, though certainly
they were more dead than alive.
I found that El Hakim and George had got the tents up, and that
dinner was being prepared by the indefatigable Ramathani. I dried
myself, and, putting on some clothing, went out in search of
something edible in the way of meat. I saw no antelope, but I made a
good shot with the ·303 at an adjutant stork (Leptoptilus marabou).
The tail feathers, the Marabout feathers of commerce, were
magnificent. This bird is a carrion-eater, and consorts with the
vultures, so it was therefore not suitable for the pot. I cut off the large
bag attached to the throat, in order to make a tobacco-pouch of it,
but the dog sneaked it and, I believe, devoured it.
We sat down to dinner in the moonlight, all three of us thoroughly
tired out, but pleased at having conquered the formidable Athi. Now,
I had in my possession a box of particularly atrocious cigars, which I
had bought in a hurry on the day we left Nairobi as a surprise for El
Hakim and George. They were somebody’s “Morning whiffs.” As far
as the others were concerned, the surprise was complete, but they
surprised me also, though I was half expecting something out of the
common.
I remember the first one I smoked that night. I remember it
distinctly, though I would much rather forget it. We had just finished
dinner, and were sitting at the table in semi-darkness. It was a
beautiful evening. The stars shone brilliantly in the unclouded
firmament, and the cool breeze softly played and whispered among
the palms. The men were happy and contented, and all was peace
and harmony. Suddenly remembering those cigars, I went into my
tent and took three out of the box. I put two of them in my pocket for
the others, and proceeded to light my own before going outside
again. The first puff knocked me backwards, but I strove gallantly to
recover my scattered faculties, and, dashing the tears from my eyes,
made another attempt. It was hard work, but I persevered, though I
admit I perspired freely. After a little practice I found that if I took a
cautious draw or two, sandwiching deep long draughts of fresh air
between each, I could manage to get along. Then I went outside and
sat down at the table where El Hakim and George were quietly and
happily conversing.
Presently George said, “Funny smell, isn’t it?”
“Yes,” El Hakim replied. “I have noticed it for the last two or three
minutes. I hope those men have not set fire to the grass.”
“Have you noticed it?” said George to me.
“No, I can’t say I have,” I answered. “What is it like?”
“Great Scott! your nose must be out of order,” said George. “It
reminds me of a brickfield. I wonder what it can be?”
“Oh, you fellows must be dreaming,” said I. “I can’t smell anything
extraordinary.”
“Can’t you?” said El Hakim, turning in his chair to look at me.
“Hullo! what are you smoking?” he added.
“A cigar, of course, and a jolly good one too,” said I, puffing away
vigorously as a proof of my enjoyment, which very nearly proved my
undoing. “Have one?”
El Hakim rose slowly to his feet, and gazed sorrowfully and
reproachfully at me; then giving one or two distinctly audible sniffs,
he walked slowly to the edge of the camp and gazed silently over the
plains, followed a moment later by George, who made some almost
unintelligible remark about “he could stand a good deal, but that——”
and, shuddering visibly, he too vanished.
I threw the remains of the cigar into the river, where it probably
continued its nefarious career, doubtless doing a lot of harm.
George, with a lofty disregard of my feelings, euphoniously
christened them “stinkers,” and neither he nor El Hakim could ever
be persuaded to smoke one.
I got hardened to them in time, but I only smoked them on special
occasions or in default of anything better. I used to smoke them after
George and I had turned in for the night. It did not matter whether
George was asleep or not; after the first half-dozen puffs he would
turn over in his blankets, and, giving vent to a resigned and massive
sigh, get up, and, uttering no word the while, he would with great
ostentation and an unnecessary amount of noise, open the tent-flaps
at each end, thus letting a fierce draught through. He would then go
back to bed again, and shiver violently with the cold, and cough
pathetic little coughs, till in sheer self-defence I would discontinue
smoking and close the tent, but I would have my revenge in the
morning while we were dressing, as I would then relight the end left
from overnight. George said the smell took away his appetite for
breakfast, but that must have been mere vulgar prejudice, as I never
noticed anything wrong with his appetite.
We were off again next morning, and in two hours reached the
Thika-Thika, the next considerable river on our route. It was the
inhabitants of the country adjacent to this river about whom we were
warned in Nairobi; but, in consequence of our détour north-eastward
to Doenyo Sabuk, we struck the river much lower down than the
presumably hostile districts.
It was a rather narrow but deep stream, full of water, with a very
swift and powerful current. We could not find a crossing-place, so we
tried to bridge the stream at the cataracts which we discovered lower
down, at which place the channel narrowed to something like twenty
yards. There was a large tree standing on the bank, and we cut it
down in the hope that it would fall across the river. It was a long and
tiresome task, and somehow the tree fell the wrong way; so we
thought we would not built a bridge, after all. We then went higher up
the river, and at one place found two dead logs, which we lashed
together to form a raft. The raft completed, we called for a volunteer
to take the line across. As Asmani ben Selim was a good swimmer,
we ordered him to volunteer. He did so, and got the line across
without accident. He then hauled the raft across with another line
attached, by which we were enabled to haul it back again, and then,
having satisfactorily demonstrated the practicability of our idea, we
adjourned for lunch.
After the meal we went down to the river again, and amused
ourselves all the afternoon by pulling the raft to and fro across the
river with two loads on at a time. We had all the loads safely across
by five o’clock in the afternoon, and then proceeded to get the men
across by the same means. Some of them had not sense enough to
sit still, and on three separate occasions they managed to upset the
unstable craft in midstream, and were hauled across clinging to the
overturned raft, feeling very miserable indeed, which feeling was in
no way alleviated by the gibes of their more fortunate companions
who had got across without accident.
It was dark by the time the last man had crossed, and the animals
were still on the wrong side of the river. We accordingly camped on
the bank, and sent a guard of three men back again to look after
them during the night.
At daylight next morning we proceeded to get the animals across
by the simple expedient of tying one end of the rope round their
necks, when a team of a dozen men on the opposite bank of the
river soon hauled them, kicking and struggling, across. I admit that
they made the passage for the most part under water; but still, there
was no other way, and the objections of the animals themselves,
though very strenuous, did not count for much.
That business concluded, we struck camp and continued our
march. We followed no road, and, being without a guide, we
travelled by compass in a north-easterly direction. By so doing we
hoped to strike the upper waters of the Tana River at Maranga. We
saw great numbers of antelope on the road, and there were also
numerous herds of zebra and brindled gnu (Connochactus taurinus).
We were in want of meat, but the game was very shy, and while
stalking a herd of zebra I had the ill luck to startle them somehow,
and they went off at a gallop. I took a long shot—200 yards—at the
leader of the herd, and, as luck would have it, brought him down.
We went on till 10 a.m., when we halted for breakfast, and did
ourselves very well on grilled zebra liver. We made a “Telekesa”
march (i.e. a march resumed after a short halt for refreshment),
usually necessary in localities where water is scarce and water-holes
long distances apart—so by soon after midday we were on the move
again.
The country was now getting very nasty. We could see low ranges
of steep hills ahead that promised to be very inconvenient. At dusk
we ascended the outlying spurs, finding it very hard work, and soon
after we camped for the night. I shot a congoni during the afternoon,
which kept us in fresh meat for a day or two. That the estimate we
had formed of the natural difficulties to be encountered was a correct
one, we had many opportunities of verifying during the next two
days. It was a perfectly horrible piece of country. It seemed to be a
collection of rocky hills thrown down just anyhow, without the
slightest regard for order. Long coarse grass and rank vegetation did
their very best to impede our progress. We were retarded every half
mile or so by steep descents, down which we toiled slowly and
painfully, only to find a roaring rushing torrent at the bottom, that
needed the most careful negotiation. Our poor donkeys suffered very
much by the constant loading and unloading of their burdens,
rendered necessary in order to cross some particularly obnoxious
ravine, while the men’s patience was severely tried.
In the early morning it was still worse, as the dense undergrowth
was then soaked through with the heavy dew, which descended on
us in icy showers as we forced our way through, thus adding to our
other miseries. There was no game to speak of. I shot one solitary
congoni at our first camp in this uninhabited wilderness, and on the
same day we inadvertently walked on to a sleeping rhinoceros,
which livened things up a little.
El Hakim was riding at the head of the safari, and George, on the
other mule, was close behind him. I was walking a few yards behind
George. Suddenly I saw El Hakim stiffen in his seat and kick his feet
free of the stirrup-irons; a fraction of a second later he was out of the
saddle and behind a bush, while George emulated his example with
a promptitude that could only have been rendered possible by the
most urgent necessity, George being, as a rule, extremely deliberate
in his movements, as befits a heavy man. At the same instant, with a
rush and a snort, a large black rhinoceros galloped blindly at us. I
took up an unobtrusive position behind an adjacent tree, with as little
delay as possible consistent with my dignity, and the rhinoceros
rushed past and disappeared. It appeared annoyed at being
disturbed.
On the afternoon of the third day after leaving the Thika-Thika we
got into some very dense scrub, and fairly lost ourselves. The bush
was absolutely impenetrable, except for the low tunnels made by
wandering hippopotamus, which indicated the presence of water not
far off. These tunnels gave the scrub the appearance of a gigantic
rabbit-warren, in which we had to walk bent double in order to make
any headway at all. It was exceedingly hot and dusty, and we
plunged about in the bewildering maze of tunnels till we were tired
out, while seemingly no nearer to the opposite side. Presently the
tunnel in which we were burrowing at the moment abruptly dipped
downwards, and a few yards further on we emerged unexpectedly
on the edge of a broad and noble river, which flowed swiftly and
serenely past our delighted eyes.
We had no doubt that this was the Tana which we had not
expected to reach for another day at least; a surmise which proved
to be correct. It is called here the Sagana, or more rarely the
Kilaluma (i.e. firewater). It is a very beautiful river, with very high
perpendicular banks clothed in the most lovely verdure. Tall water-
palms (Raffia sp.?) reared their stately heads far above the
surrounding luxuriant vegetation; while tropical trees of many
species formed a playground for troops of monkeys. Birds of brilliant
plumage darted hither and thither like diminutive rainbows, and
completed as charming a picture of tropical beauty as could be found
in Africa.
The river itself was about eighty yards broad, and very deep, with
a four-miles-an-hour current. We had struck it at a point about two
days’ march above the Carl Alexander and Sweinfurth Falls. It is full
of hippopotamus. George shot at one in the water, but it sank
immediately and disappeared from view.
Our men skirmished round, and discovered a small clearing, in
which we camped. Some of the Wakamba porters informed us that
farther up the river there was a bridge, and beyond that the
“shambas” (plantations) of the A’kikuyu. We were rather sceptical
about the bridge, as they used the word “dirage,” which is the Swahili
word used by the Wakamba either for a bridge, a boat or raft, or a
ford, though the Swahilis themselves have separate and distinct
words for each.
We ascertained one fact. A large river, called the Maragua, joined
the Sagana two hours’ march up-stream, and we should have a
much better chance of a successful crossing if we crossed before
the Maragua joined forces with the already swollen Sagana, though
such a course necessitated crossing two rivers instead of one.
Early next day we set off up-stream in a westerly direction.
Travelling was like an excursion over the roofs of a row of houses.
The jungle was very dense everywhere, and we were also in
constant danger from the numerous hippopotamus-traps which had
been set by the natives, who sometimes hunt this side of the river.
These traps consisted of a heavy log of wood, probably thorn, about
18 inches long and 9 inches in diameter, with an iron blade 8 inches
long firmly set in one end. This was suspended blade downwards
over the centre of the path, and connected with a cord stretched
across the path an inch or so above the ground. When the
unsuspecting hippopotamus passed that way it kicked the cord,
thereby releasing a catch, and down dropped the heavy log, armed
with its keen blade, into the unfortunate victim’s back, usually
severing the spine. We had to keep a very sharp look-out for these
traps, sending men ahead of the safari to search for them and
release the suspended log before we passed.
We lost sight of the Sagana altogether in an hour or so, as here it
makes a big curve to the north before flowing down again to the
Mumoni hills. We reached the Maragua in due course, and found
that our men’s information was correct, and that there was a genuine
bridge. I discovered later that it was built by Gibbons on his ill-fated
journey to M’bu. It was very well built, some small islands in the
channel being utilized as piers, upon which were laid the straight

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