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THE MOST COMPLETE AND AUTHORITATIVE TEXTBOOK
ON DEMOCRATIZATION
Democratization provides insightful coverage of all important aspects of contemporary
democratization, including theories, actors, dynamics, and real-world developments.
lt brings together leading experts from a range of international backgrounds, including
some of the best-known names in the field, making it an invaluable resource for students
of democratization.
UN I V ERSITY PR ESS
II I 11 1111 1111111111
9 780198 732280
www.oup.com
Democratization
SECOND EDITION
Christian W. Haerpfer
Patrick Bernhagen
Christian Welzel
Ronald F. lnglehart
OXFORD
UNIVERSITY PRESS
OXFORD
UNIVERSITY PRESS
Since the global wave of democratization peaked in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet
Union, the subject has become of crucial concern for any attempt of understanding the contem-
porary political world. Consequently, over the past ten years, courses on democratization have
established themselves as core components of a large, and increasing, number of undergraduate
and postgraduate curricula in politics and international relations. At the same time, the availability
of high-quality textbooks in that field has been very limited.
The idea for a new book to fill this gap first surfaced in a conversation between the editors and
Ruth Anderson at Oxford University Press in October 2006. They agreed that an introductory text
that would introduce students to the theoretical and practical dimensions of democratization in
an accessible and systematic way has been lacking for quite some time. Bringing together leading
authors from diverse international backgrounds, including some of the best known names in the
field, as well as younger scholars, they decided to produce the present book. The resulting text treats
in a single volume all important aspects of contemporary democratization, including theories of
democratization, critical prerequisites and driving forces of democratic transition, pivotal actors,
and institutions, and the conditions and challenges for the consolidation of new democracies,
including the analysis of failed democratization. To demonstrate how all these factors have affected
democratization around the world, we decided that all major world regions should be covered, and
we included cases of successful democratic consolidation as well as countries in which the future
of democracy remains highly uncertain.
In the process of writing and editing this book, we have incurred great debt to an even greater
number of people-too many to list in detail. But we would like to particularly acknowledge the
help of Ecaterina McDonagh, who has been responsible for creating the Online Resource Centre
supporting the book. Of course we also thank all our contributors for fitting their expertise into
the general framework of this book. Thanks are also due to Ruth Anderson, Suzy Armitage, and
Thomas Sigel, who have been patient and supportive at different stages of the process.
The contribution of Christian W. Haerpfer to this volume has been supported by a Woodrow
Wilson Fellowship of the Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian and Ukrainian Studies in
Washington DC, and by the CINEFOGO network under the Sixth Framework Programme of the
European Union. The University of Aberdeen has been very supportive of this project and facilitated
the participation of five scholars from its Department of Politics and International Relations as
editors and/ or authors. We are also grateful to a considerable number of anonymous reviewers
whose comments early on in the process were immensely helpful in improving the structure and
content of this book. Needless to say, we are solely responsible for any remaining errors.
The Editors (Aberdeen, Ann Arbor, and Bremen) 2009
Preface and Acknowledgements
to the Second Edition
At the time of this writing, almost ten years have passed since the first edition of this volume. Dur-
ing this time, we have witnessed the Color Revolutions and the Arab Spring, followed by a reverse
wave of democratization, rising authoritarianism, democratic backsliding, and electoral triumphs
of right-wing populism. This recent tum of events has nourished a new pessimism about the pros-
pects of democracy and a general sense of democracy in crisis. Coping with this change of the
academic and public mood prompted us to thoroughly re-write the introductory and concluding
chapters of this volume. Likewise, all authors of the first edition have profoundly updated and-
where necessary-modified their chapters, in recognition of the newly emerging sense of crisis.
Furthermore, we have recruited new authors to cover aspects in the context of democratization
(and autocratization) that require more attention. Above all, this holds true for Larry Diamond's
chapter on the role of the new media and the Internet. Furthermore, Christian Haerpfer's chapter
on the post-communist world has been divided into two separate chapters for Central/Eastern
Europe, on one hand, and the post-Soviet space, on the other. The glossary and references have also
been thoroughly updated.
In acknowledgement of all authors' formidable contributions to this second edition of
Democratization, we wish to express at this occasion our deep and sincere gratitude-in the hope
that a third edition will tum back to a more optimistic outlook on democracy. Last but not least,
our sense of sincere gratitude extends to our enormously competent and helpful editor at Oxford
University Press, Francesca Walker-thank you, indeed.
Key parts of the research embodied in Christian Welzel's contribution to this edition in Chapters
1, 2, and 9 have been funded by the Russian Academic Excellence Project '5-100'.
The Editors (Ann Arbor, Lilneburg and Moscow; Stuttgart, and Vienna) 2018
Brief Contents
Introduction
Christian Welzel, Ronald lnglehart, Patrick Bernhagen, and Christian W. Haerpfer
2 Theories of Democratization 21
Christian Welzel
Glossary 432
Bibliography 440
Index 476
Detailed Contents
Introduction
Christian Welzel, Ronald lnglehart, Patrick Bernhagen, and Christian W. Haerpfer
2 Theories of Democratization 21
Christian Welzel
Introduction 22
The Nature of Democracy 22
Ancient Democracy 23
The 'Cool Water' Origin of the West's Emancipatory Dynamic 24
The Principle of Representation 24
The West-East, North-South Gradient 25
Rent-Seeking States 25
Patterns of Colonialism 27
Industrialization and Class Divisions 27
Ethnic and Religious Cleavages 29
Socioeconomic Modernization 29
International Conflicts and Regime Alliances 30
Elite Pacts and Mass Mobilization 31
State Repression and Grassroots Pressures 32
The Role of Emancipative Values 32
•... ,;'~
Introduction 41
Defining Democratic States 41
The state as the starting point 41
The characteristics of a democratic state 42
The State of States Today 43
Different kinds of accountable democracies 44
Different kinds of undemocratic states 45
Most regimes are incompletely democratic or autocratic 45
Evolution, False Starts, and Democratization Backwards 47
Getting rid of tangible evils 47
Dynamics of Democratic and Undemocratic States 48
Dynamics of democratic regimes 49
Dynamics of constitutional autocracy 49
Dynamics of plebiscitarian autocracy 50
Dynamics of unaccountable autocracy 50
Conclusion 50
Introduction 53
Is Democracy a Matter of Degree? 53
Conceptualizing democracy 53
Sortal versus scalar concepts of democracy 54
Dimensions and Indicators of Democracy 56
Dimensions of democracy 56
Indicators of democracy 57
Aggregating dimensions and indicators into scales 58
The global wave of democratization according to the four major indices 61
Hybrid Regimes and Sub-Types of Democracy 63
Conclusion 64
Introduction 67
The Overall Picture 69
The First Long Wave, 1776-1914 71
The first positive conjuncture, 19 I8/19 72
xiv Detailed Contents
The Second 'Long Wave' (with some Intermittent Turbulences), 1945-88 74
The Latest Conjuncture, 1989/90 75
A Period of Uncertainty 76
Conclusion 79
Introduction 83
Democracy Ascending 83
National, Regional, and Global Processes 88
Mediterranean Europe, 1970s 89
Latin America, 1980s and early 1990s 89
Soviet/communist bloc, 1989 and beyond 91
Asia, 1980s and 1990s 92
Africa, early 1990s 93
Middle East and North Africa 94
Beyond the Global Wave 95
Into the twenty-first century 96
Introduction 103
The International Context of Democratization: Theoretical Approaches 104
Democracy Promotion Strategies of the USA and the European Union 106
Democracy promotion by the USA 107
Democracy promotion by the EU II 0
Globalization, Global Civil Society, and Democratization 112
Conclusion 114
Introduction 119
Economic and Political Development 121
What Capitalism Does for Democracy 123
What Democracy Does for Capitalism 126
The Role of Business Actors in Democratic Transition 128
Politico-Economic Reform 130
Reforming systems based on import substitution industrialization 130
Reforming systems with a history of export-led development 131
Reforming collectivist economies 131
Reforming rentier states 131
Conclusion 132
Detailed Contents xv
Introduction 134
Mass Beliefs-The Missing Link between Structure and Action 135
The Centrality of Emancipative Values 136
Measuring Emancipative Values 137
The Importance of Regime Legitimacy 138
The Emancipatory Impulse of Action Resources 140
Some Key Qualifications 142
The 'Tectonic Model' of Regime Change 143
Updated Evidence 145
Conclusion 154
Introduction 158
Gender in Definitions of Democracy 159
Women's Democratic Representation: Formal, Descriptive, Substantive, and Symbolic Representation 161
Women's Suffrage as an Aspect of Democratization 163
Women's Representation as an Aspect of Democracy 165
Women and Democratization Movements 167
Conclusion 168
Introduction 172
Defining Civil Society and Social Capital 172
Civil Society and Social Capital in Democratization 173
Networks as sources of information 174
Associations as schools of democracy 175
Trust and democracy 175
Reprise 176
Paradoxes of Civil Society and Social Capital in New Democracies 176
Are civil society and social capital necessary for democratization! 176
'Civil society against the state'! 177
Social capital, civil society, and democracy: what comes first! 177
Are all forms of social capital conducive for democracies! 177
Civil Society, Social Capital, and Democracy: the Western Perspective! 178
Conclusion 179
Introduction 183
Social Movements in Research on Democratization 183
Structural approaches: modernization theory and historical class perspective 183
xvi Detailed Contents
Introduction 197
Dimensions of Political Participation 198
Election Turnout 201
Institutions and Political Participation 204
Citizens and Political Participation 205
Political Participation and its Consequences 208
Conclusion 209
Introduction 240
Media and Democracy: Normative Foundations 240
Media and the Dynamics of Regime Change 241
International broadcasting and the demonstration effect 241
Communication technologies and the convergence between 'old' and 'new' media 243
Democratizing the Media 244
Media-state relationships 245
Media regulation and media laws 245
The ambivalence of press freedom 246
The Media and the Market 247
Media after communism: Central and Eastern Europe 247
Media after capitalist dictatorship: Latin America and Asia 248
Post-colonial media: Africa 248
Media and the Quality of New Democracies 249
Conclusion 250
Introduction 254
Social Media as Information Channels 255
Online news and opinion 255
Information crowdsourcing and government transparency 256
Social Media as Organizing Tools 257
Protest mobilization 257
The value and limits of social media in driving democratic change 259
The Empire Strikes Back: Digital Censorship and Repression 261
Conclusion 263
Introduction 267
Theory and Central Concepts 268
Measuring Democracy 269
Democratic Stagnation 271
What Undermines Democracy? 272
The Limits of Explanations Based on Structural Factors 276
Agents of Democratic Failure 278
xvi ii Detailed Contents
Introduction 286
Portugal 286
First transition to democracy 286
Second transition to democracy 287
Reasons for democratic transition 287
Greece 289
The Cyprus conflict as trigger of transition 289
The role of Karamanlis in transition 290
Founding elections and first democratic government 291
Spain 292
Elite pact as main feature of transition 292
Backward legitimacy 292
The new democratic constitution 293
Politics of consensus 294
Explaining Democratization in Southern Europe 296
The international context 296
Business and the economy 297
Social movements 298
Actors: the role of elite pacts 299
Conclusion 300
Epilogue 302
Introduction 306
Historical Overview 306
The historical impact of the Cuban Revolution 307
Argentina 307
Chile 307
Mexico 308
Venezuela 308
The International Context 309
Economic Factors 311
Political Culture and Society 312
Political Parties and Social Movements 315
Institutional Challenges 317
Conclusion 320
Detailed Contents xix
Introduction 323
Stage One: Failed Reforms and the Decline of Communist Regimes, 1968--88 324
Stage Two: The End of Communist Political Regimes, 1989-91 326
Stage Three: The Creation of New Democracies 326
From New Democracies towards Consolidated Democracies 327
From New Democracies towards Electoral Democracies 332
From New Democracies towards Emerging Democracies 336
Conclusion 338
Introduction 342
Decline of the Soviet Union 1985-91 343
The End of the Soviet Union in 1991 344
The Creation of New Political Systems of the Russian Federation and
the Newly Independent States 345
From Soviet Republics towards Consolidated Democracies 347
From Soviet Republics towards Electoral Democracies 349
Georgia 349
Moldova 351
Ukraine 352
Kyrgyzstan 353
From Soviet Republics towards Electoral Autocracies 354
Russia 354
Armenia 356
Azerbaijan 356
Belarus 357
Kazakhstan 358
Tajikistan 358
From Soviet Republics towards Full Autocracies 359
Uzbekistan 359
Turkmenistan 360
Conclusion 361
Introduction 365
Authoritarian Persistence in the Arab World 367
The International Context 370
The role of lslamist political actors 371
Political Culture and Society 373
Business and the Economy 376
Agents of Democratization and Democratic Failure 378
Weak multi-party systems under state control 379
XX Detailed Contents
Challenges 380
Conclusion 381
Introduction 385
Africa's Democratic Wave 386
A period of transition 386
Features of transition 386
Key Cases of Regime Transition 388
South Africa 388
Ghana 389
Nigeria 390
Zimbabwe 391
Explanatory Factors 391
International influences 391
Economic conditions 392
Political culture and society 392
The roles of political actors 393
Conjuncture and causality 394
Institutional Challenges 394
Elections 395
Political parties 395
Civil society 396
Legislatures and courts 396
Conclusion 397
Introduction 402
East Asia as a Region of Democratization 402
Democratic Transition 405
Modes of democratic regime change 405
The Philippines 407
South Korea 407
Taiwan 408
Thailand 408
Mongolia 409
Cambodia 409
Indonesia 410
Causes of democratic transitions 411
Substantive Democratization 412
Democratic governance 412
Prospects of Democratization in China 414
Conclusion 417
Detailed Contents xxi
Introduction 423
Tactics and Strategies 424
Varieties of Autocracy 425
Development 426
External Threats and Group Hostilities 427
An Evolutionary Perspective 427
The Democratic Agenda of the Future 429
Spreading Democracy to New Regions 429
Consolidating and Improving New Democracies 430
Deepening Old Democracies 430
Glossary 432
Bibliography 440
Index 476
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The Project Gutenberg eBook of The Cornhill
Magazine, February, 1860 (Vol. I, No. 2)
This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United
States and most other parts of the world at no cost and with
almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away
or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License
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are not located in the United States, you will have to check the
laws of the country where you are located before using this
eBook.
Author: Various
Language: English
CORNHILL MAGAZINE.
FEBRUARY, 1860.
CONTENTS.
PAGE
Nil Nisi Bonum 129
Invasion Panics 135
To Goldenhair (from Horace). By Thomas Hood. 149
Framley Parsonage 150
Chapter IV.—A Matter of Conscience.
„ V.—Amantium Iræ Amoris Integratio.
„ VI.—Mr. Harold Smith’s Lecture.
Tithonus. By Alfred Tennyson 175
William Hogarth: Painter, Engraver, and Philosopher.
Essays on the Man, the Work, and the Time 177
I.—Little Boy Hogarth.
Unspoken Dialogue. By R. Monckton Milnes. (With an
Illustration) 194
Studies in Animal Life 198
Chapter II.— Ponds and rock-pools— Our necessary tackle
— Wimbledon Common— Early memories— Gnat larvæ—
Entomostraca and their paradoxes— Races of animals
dispensing with the sterner sex— Insignificance of males—
Volvox globator: is it an animal?— Plants swimming like
animals— Animal retrogressions— The Dytiscus and its
larva— The dragon-fly larva— Molluscs and their eggs—
Polypes, and how to find them— A new polype, Hydra
rubra— Nest-building fish— Contempt replaced by
reverence.
CORNHILL MAGAZINE.
FEBRUARY, 1860.
FOOTNOTES:
1
See his Life in the most remarkable Dictionary of
Authors, published lately at Philadelphia, by Mr.
Alibone.
2
At Washington, Mr. Irving came to a lecture given by the
writer, which Mr. Filmore and General Pierce, the
president and president elect, were also kind enough to
attend together. “Two Kings of Brentford smelling at one
rose,” says Irving, looking up with his good-humoured
smile.
3
Mr. Irving described to me, with that humour and good
humour which he always kept, how, amongst other
visitors, a member of the British press who had carried
his distinguished pen to America (where he employed it
in vilifying his own country) came to Sunnyside,
introduced himself to Irving, partook of his wine and
luncheon, and in two days described Mr. Irving, his
house, his nieces, his meal, and his manner of dozing
afterwards, in a New York paper. On another occasion,
Irving said, laughing: “Two persons came to me, and
one held me in conversation whilst the other miscreant
took my portrait!”
4
Since the above was written, I have been informed that
it has been found, on examining Lord Macaulay’s
papers, that he was in the habit of giving away more
than a fourth part of his annual income.
Invasion Panics.
When, about the year 1899, Field-marshal Dowbiggin, full of years
and honours, shall edit, with copious notes, the Private
Correspondence of his kinsman, Queen Victoria’s celebrated War
Minister during England’s bloody struggle with Russia in 1854–5, the
grandchildren of the present generation may probably learn a good
deal more respecting the real causes of the failures and
shortcomings of that “horrible and heartrending” period than we, their
grandfathers, are likely to know on this side our graves.
And when some future Earl of Pembroke shall devote his
splendid leisure, under the cedar groves of Wilton, to preparing for
the information of the twentieth century the memoirs of his great
ancestor, Mr. Secretary Herbert, posterity will then run some chance
of discovering—what is kept a close secret from the public just now
—whether any domestic causes exist to justify the invasion-panic
under which the nation has recently been shivering.
The insular position of England, her lofty cliffs, her stormy seas,
her winter fogs, fortify her with everlasting fortifications, as no other
European power is fortified. She is rich, she is populous, she
contains within herself an abundance of coal, iron, timber, and
almost all other munitions of war; railways intersect and encircle her
on all sides; in patriotism, in loyalty, in manliness, in intelligence, her
sons yield to no other race of men. Blest with all these advantages,
she ought, of all the nations of Europe, to be the last to fear, the
readiest to repel invasion; yet, strange to say, of all the nations of
Europe, England appears to apprehend invasion most!
There must be some good and sufficient reason for this
extraordinary state of things. Many reasons are daily assigned for it,
all differing from each other, all in turn disputed and denied by those
who know the real reason best.
The statesman and the soldier declare that the fault lies with
parliament and the people. They complain that parliament is
niggardly in placing sufficient means at the disposal of the executive,
and that the people are distrustful and over-inquisitive as to their
application; ever too ready to attribute evil motives and incapacity to
those set in authority over them. Parliament and the people, on the
other hand, reply, that ample means are yearly allotted for the
defence of the country, and that more would readily be forthcoming,
had they reason to suppose that what has already been spent, has
been well spent; their Humes and their Brights loudly and harshly
denounce the nepotism, the incapacity, and the greed, which,
according to them, disgrace the governing classes, and waste and
weaken the resources of the land. And so the painful squabble
ferments—no probable end to it being in view. Indeed, the public are
permitted to know so little of the conduct of their most important
affairs—silence is so strictly enjoined to the men at the helm—that
the most carefully prepared indictment against an official delinquent
is invariably evaded by the introduction of some new feature into his
case, hitherto unknown to any but his brother officials, which at once
casts upon the assailant the stigma of having arraigned a public
servant on incomplete information, and puts him out of court.
But if, in this the year of our Lord 1860, we have no means of
discovering why millions of strong, brave, well-armed Englishmen
should be so moved at the prospect of a possible attack from twenty
or thirty thousand French, we have recently been placed in
possession of the means of ascertaining why, some sixty years ago,
this powerful nation was afflicted with a similar fit of timidity.
The first American war had then just ended—not gloriously for
the British arms. Lord Amherst, the commander-in-chief at home,
had been compelled by his age and infirmities to retire from office,
having, it was said, been indulgently permitted by his royal master to
retain it longer than had been good for the credit and discipline of the
service. The Duke of York, an enthusiastic and practical soldier, in
the prime of life, fresh from an active command in Flanders, had
succeeded him. In that day there were few open-mouthed and vulgar
demagogues to carp at the public expenditure and to revile the
privileged classes; and the few that there were had a very bad time
of it. Public money was sown broadcast, both at home and abroad,
with a reckless hand; regulars, militia, yeomanry, and volunteers,
fearfully and wonderfully attired, bristled in thousands wherever a
landing was conceived possible; and, best of all, that noble school of
Great British seamen, which had reared us a Nelson, had reared us
many other valiant guardians of our shores scarcely less worthy than
he. But in spite of her Yorks and her Nelsons, England felt uneasy
and unsafe. Confident in her navy, she had little confidence in her
army, which at that time was entirely and absolutely in the hands and
under the management of the court; parliament and the people being
only permitted to pay for it.
Yet the royal commander-in-chief was declared by the general
officers most in favour at court to know his business well, and to be
carrying vigorously into effect the necessary reforms suggested by
our American mishaps; his personal acquaintance with the officers of
the army was said to have enabled him to form his military family of
5
the most capable men in the service; his exalted position, and his
enormous income, were supposed to place him above the
temptation of jobbing: in short, the Duke of York was universally held
up to the nation by his military friends—and a royal commander-in-
chief has many and warm military friends—as the regenerator of the
British army, which just then happened to be sadly in need of
regeneration.
A work has recently been published which tells us very plainly
now many things which it would have been treasonable even to
suspect sixty years ago. It is entitled The Cornwallis
Correspondence, and contains the private papers and letters of the
first Marquis Cornwallis, one of the foremost Englishmen of his time.
Bred a soldier, he served with distinction in Germany and in America.
He then proceeded to India in the double capacity of governor-
general and commander-in-chief. On his return from that service he
filled for some years the post of master-general of the Ordnance,
refused a seat in the Cabinet, offered him by Mr. Pitt; and, although
again named governor-general of India, on the breaking out of the
Irish rebellion of 1798 was hurried to Dublin as lord-lieutenant and
commander-in-chief. He was subsequently employed to negotiate
the peace of Amiens, and, in 1805, died at Ghazeepore, in India,
having been appointed its governor-general for the third time.
From the correspondence of this distinguished statesman and
soldier, we may now ascertain whether, sixty years ago, the people
of England had or had not good grounds for dreading invasion by the
French, and whether the governing classes or the governed were
most in fault on that occasion for the doubtful condition of their native
land.
George the Third was verging upon insanity. So detested and
despised was the Prince of Wales, his successor, that those who
directed his Majesty’s councils, as well as the people at large, clung
eagerly to the hopes of the king’s welfare; trusting that the evil days
of a regency might be postponed. And it would seem from the
Cornwallis Correspondence, that the English were just in their
estimation of that bad man. H. R. H. having quarrelled shamefully
with his parents, and with Pitt, had thrown himself into the hands of
the Opposition, and appears to have corresponded occasionally with
Cornwallis, who had two votes at his command in the Commons,
during that nobleman’s first Indian administration. In 1790, Lord
Cornwallis, writing to his brother, the Bishop of Lichfield and
Coventry, says: “You tell me that I am accused of being remiss in my
correspondence with a certain great personage. Nothing can be
more false, for I have answered every letter from him by the first ship
that sailed from hence after I received it. The style of them, although
personally kind to excess, has not been very agreeable to me, as
they have always pressed upon me some infamous and unjustifiable
job, which I have uniformly been obliged to refuse, and contained
much gross and false abuse of Mr. Pitt, and improper charges
against other and greater personages, about whom, to me at least,
6
he ought to be silent.”
The intimacy which had existed from boyhood between General
Richard Grenville, military tutor to the Duke of York, and Lord
Cornwallis, and the correspondence which took place between them,
to which we have now access, afford ample means of judging of the