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 Chapter 8: Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Chapter Outline

8.1 The Logic of Hypothesis Testing

The Elements of a Hypothesis Test
The Four Steps of a Hypothesis Test
Step l: State the Hypothesis
Step 2: Set the Criteria for a Decision
Step 3: Collect Data and Compute Sample Statistics
Step 4: Make a Decision
A Closer Look at the z-Score Statistic (Recipe and Ratio)
8.2 Uncertainty and Errors in Hypothesis Testing
Type I Errors
Type II Errors
Selecting an Alpha Level
8.3 More about Hypothesis Tests
A Summary of the Hypothesis Test
In the Literature: Reporting the Results of the Statistical Test
Factors That Influence a Hypothesis Test
Assumptions for Hypothesis Tests with z-Scores
8.4 Directional (One-Tailed) Hypothesis Tests
The Hypotheses for a Directional Test
The Critical Region for Directional Tests
Comparison of One-Tailed versus Two-Tailed Tests
8.5 Concerns about Hypothesis Testing: Measuring Effect Size
Measuring Effect Size
8.6 Statistical Power
Power and Effect Size
Other Factors that Affect Power

Learning Objectives and Chapter Summary

1. Students should understand the purpose, logic, and steps involved in hypothesis testing.

In the generic hypothesis testing situation, a sample is selected from a population, a

treatment is administered to the sample, and the individuals in the sample are measured.
If the sample mean differs significantly from the original population mean, then we have
evidence that the treatment had an effect.

123
2. Students should be able to state/identify the null and alternative hypotheses and locate the
critical region.

A hypothesis test always begins with a null hypothesis stating that the treatment has no
effect (no change, no difference, no relationship, etc.). The next step is to determine what
kind of sample data would be reasonable if this hypothesis is true, and what kind of
sample data would be very unlikely. The term “very unlikely” is defined by the alpha
level for the test. The critical region consists of the set of sample outcomes that would be
very unlikely to occur if the null hypothesis is true. If the research study produces a
sample in the critical region, we conclude that the sample data are not consistent with the
null hypothesis, and we reject the null hypothesis.

3. Students should be able to conduct a hypothesis test using a z-score statistic and make a
statistical decision.

As noted earlier, if the mean for the treated sample is noticeably different from the mean
for the original population, then we conclude that the treatment had an effect. The
problem, however, is that an observed difference between the sample mean and the
population mean may be due to chance (sampling error). One goal of a hypothesis test is
to rule out chance as a plausible explanation for the mean difference. To accomplish this
goal, we first calculate how much difference is reasonable to expect between M and µ if
there is no treatment effect (the standard error). Then, we compare the actual obtained
difference with this value. The z-score statistic reflects this comparison.

M−μ Actual mean difference

z = ───── = ──────────────────────
σM Standard difference between M and µ

A large value for the z-statistic (as defined by the critical region) means that we can
conclude that the obtained mean difference is more than can be explained by chance, and
reject the null hypothesis.

4. Students should be able to define and differentiate Type I and Type II errors.

A hypothesis test uses limited information from a sample to make a general conclusion
about a population. It is always possible that the sample information is misleading or not
representative, leading us to an incorrect conclusion. Sometimes the sample appears to
show evidence of a treatment effect, when in fact the treatment has no effect. In this case,
the researcher falsely concludes that the treatment has an effect, making a Type I error
(i.e., incorrectly rejects the null hypothesis). It is also possible that the treated sample
does not appear to be noticeably different from the original population, even though the
treatment did have an effect. In this case, the researcher falsely concludes that the
treatment does not have a significant effect, a Type II error (i.e., incorrectly accepts the
null hypothesis).

124
5. Students should understand the purpose of measuring effect size and power, and they should
be able to compute Cohen’s d.

A hypothesis test determines whether the mean difference obtained in a research study is
greater than is expected simply by chance (i.e., due to sampling error). The standard error
is used to determine how much difference is reasonable to expect. However, in some
cases, especially with large samples, the standard error can be very small. In these cases,
a tiny mean difference may be enough to be statistically significant. Thus, concluding
that a treatment effect is “significant” does not tell you anything about the actual size of
the effect and does not imply that the effect is large. To gain information about the size of
the treatment effect, it is recommended that researchers also report a measure of effect
size.

Cohen’s d is a measure of effect size. It is computed by dividing the obtained mean

difference by the standard deviation. Thus, a d value of 0.50 indicates that the difference
between the sample mean (after treatment) and the original population mean (before
treatment) is equal to one-half of a standard deviation.

6. Students should be able to incorporate a directional prediction into the hypothesis test and
conduct a directional (one-tailed) test.

If the expected treatment effect is an increase in scores, the null hypothesis for a
directional test simply states that there is no increase (no effect). Sample data that show
an increase (large values in the right-hand tail) tend to refute this null hypothesis, thus the
critical region consists entirely of values in one tail of the distribution.

7. Students should understand the concept of power and the factors that affect it.

The power of a hypothesis test is the probability that the test will reject the null
hypothesis when there is a real treatment effect. As the size of the treatment effect
increases, the power of the test also increases. Other factors that increase power are
increasing the sample size, increasing the alpha level, and switching from a two-tailed to
a one-tailed test.

Other Lecture Suggestions

1. The general purpose for a hypothesis test can be demonstrated using Figure 1.2, which
introduces the concept of sampling error. In Chapter 8, we are administering a treatment to a
sample and want to determine if the observed difference between the sample mean and μ is
caused by the treatment. To justify this conclusion, however, we must demonstrate that the
observed mean difference is significantly larger than can be explained by chance or sampling
error (as in Figure 1.2). This is the job for a hypothesis test. In simple terms, the goal for a
hypothesis test is to rule out chance (random, unsystematic factors) as a plausible explanation for
the research results.

125
Answer to Even Numbered Problems

2. The alpha level is a small probability value that defines the concept of “very unlikely.” The
critical region consists of outcomes that are very unlikely to occur if the null hypothesis is true,
where “very unlikely” is defined by the alpha level.

4. a. Lowering the alpha level causes the boundaries of the critical region to move farther out
into the tails of the distribution.
b. Lowering α reduces the probability of a Type I error.

6. a. The null hypothesis states that studying on an electronic screen has no effect on final
exam scores.
b. H0: μ = 77 (even with studying on a screen, the mean is still 77). H1: μ  77 (the
mean has changed) The critical region consists of z-scores beyond 1.96. For these data,
the standard error is 2 and z = –4.5/2 = –2.25. Reject the null hypothesis. Using an
electronic screen for study does have a significant effect on final exam scores.

8. a. The null hypothesis states that participation in sports, cultural groups, and youth groups
has no effect on self-esteem. H0: µ = 50, even with participation. With n = 100, the
standard error is 1.5 points and z = 3.8/1.5 = 2.53. This is beyond the critical value of
1.96, so we conclude that there is a significant effect.
b. Cohen’s d = 3.8/15 = 0.253.
c. The results indicate that group participation has a significant effect on self-esteem, z =
2.53, p < .05, d = 0.253.

10. a. With n = 36, the standard error is 1, and z = –3/1 = –3.00. Reject H0.
b. With n = 9, the standard error is 2, and z = –3/2 = –1.50. Fail to reject H0.
c. A larger sample increases the likelihood of rejecting the null hypothesis.

12. The null hypothesis states that adding a statement about sense of humor to the description
will have no effect on the ratings; the mean will still be μ = 4.0. The standard error is 0.15 and
the z-score for this sample is z = 2.80. For a one-tailed test, the critical value is z = 1.65. Reject
the null hypothesis and conclude that a sense of hummer has a significant effect on attraction
rating scores.

14. With n = 4, the standard error is 0.95 and the sample mean corresponds to z = 2.79. This is
well beyond the critical boundary of 1.65. Reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the
number of 90-degree days in the past four years is significantly higher than the overall mean
of µ = 9.6.

16. a. H0: μ ≤ 1.85 (not more than average) For the males, the standard error is 0.2 and z =
3.00. With a critical value of z = 2.33, reject the null hypothesis.
b. H0: μ ≥ 1.85 (not fewer than average) For the females, the standard error is 0.24 and z =
–2.38. With a critical value of z = –2.33, reject the null hypothesis.

18. a. For a sample of n = 9 the standard error is 4 points, and the critical boundary for

126
 z = 1.96 corresponds to a sample mean of M = 47.84. With a 6-point effect, the
distribution of sample means would be centered at  = 46. In this distribution, the
critical boundary of M = 47.84 corresponds to z = 0.46. The power for the test is
p(z > 0.46) = 0.3228 or 32.28%.
b. For a sample of n = 16 the standard error would be 3 points, and the critical boundary for
z = 1.96 corresponds to a sample mean of M = 45.88. With a 6-point effect, the
distribution of sample means would be centered at  = 46. In this distribution, the
critical boundary of M = 45.88 corresponds to z = –0.04 . The power for the test is
p(z > –0.04) = 0.5160 or 51.60%.

20. a. With no treatment effect the distribution of sample means is centered at  = 100 with a
standard error of 3 points. The critical boundary of z = 1.96 corresponds to a sample
mean of M = 105.88. With a 7-point treatment effect, the distribution of sample
means is centered at  = 107. In this distribution a mean of M = 105.88 corresponds to z
= −0.37. The power for the test is the probability of obtaining a z-score greater than
−0.37, which is p = 0.6443.
b. With a one-tailed test, a critical boundary of z = 1.65 corresponds to a sample mean of M
= 104.95. With a 7-point treatment effect, the distribution of sample means is centered at
 = 107. In this distribution a mean of M = 104.95 corresponds to z = −0.68. The power
for the test is the probability of obtaining a z-score greater than −0.68, which is p =
0.7517.

22. a. Increasing alpha increases power.

b. Changing from one- to two-tailed decreases power.

127
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
 Vigilant
41 Psalms
Civil42 Maker92 of arms
Possessive
43 pronoun A murænoid
95 eel
Revised
45 Even96
Fierce
46 look Australian
97 bird
Celebrated
47 sorceress Longs99
Chums48 Polecat
100
Uncloses
49 Economical
101 person
Sufferings
50 Dirty
102street or district
Polyp’s
51 skeletons Weird
103
Molten
52 rock Virtuous
104
Reared
53 Scout
105
Carved
54 gem Raise
106the spirits
Jury55 Decree
107
Signs56of omission As 108
far as
Guided
58 Earth
109
Morning
59 worship Nothing
110
Wed60 Appropriate
111
British
61 title Water-nymph
112
Mature
62 Slurred
113
Flower
63 nectar

VERTICAL

Crane1 Junto56
Pieces2 out Rock57
Allow 3 Secondary
59
Finch-like
4 bird Is melancholy
60
Stockades
5 Asiatic
61 shrub
Sliding
6 vehicle Religious
62 ceremony
Possessive
7 pronoun Inferno
63
Rudiment
8 Juliet’s
64 lover
Draw66out
Deep,9lethargic sleep Clenched
67 hands
(pl.) Summons
68
Cause 10 of pediculosis Black69and shining
Comminuted
11 lava Fragment
70
Eccentric
12 Church
71 officer
More13orderly Destinies
73
Removed
14 Aromatic
74 wood
Fodder15 storage Roost75
Rainbow
17 Lid 77
Mechanical
19 repetition Standard
78 golf score
without understanding Of the
79kidneys
Dregs 21 Madagascar
80 mammal
Narrate
22 Ebb 81and flow
Contemptuous
26 Royal82
insinuations Layer83of tiles
Vegetables
28 with Bean84
dressing Large86wasps
Prop29 Impure
87 soda
Ink of30the cuttlefish Divers
88
Governs
32 Water89raising
Rows 33 apparatus (pl.)
Disentangle
34 Town90in Ohio
Silenced
35 Harsh91
Flat,36treeless plain Coral93barrier
Pertaining
37 to tides The 94
Madonna
Worship
39 Death95(Fr.)
Two-legged
40 Den 96
Foreign
41 African
97 antelope
Sealed42 with wax Dumb 98
Harbor43 Strip
100of land
Excite44 Hurried
101
Street46urchin The102
black haw
Spondulix
47 Silent
104
Verbal48 Station
105 (abbr.)
Top 50of the head (pl.) Finish
106
Provide
51
 Etruscan
52 gods
Grass53leaf
Antic54
Panels
55

[83]

[Contents]
Puzzle No. 85
DIRTY WORK AT THE CROSS WORDS
By Neophyte

Perhaps you agonized over Neophyte’s creation in

the First Series. Here’s its mate. Neophyte, being a
hardened veteran of the cryptic art, must have heard
the groans from the breasts of puzzlers poring over
his brain buster. And he gloated and went at his fell
work again. However, this one is a little easier than
the other.
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11
12 13
14 15 16
17 18
19 20

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31 32
33 34 35 36
37 38
39 40
41

[82]
HORIZONTAL

Ungainly
1 Hums21
Malayan7 animal Readjusted
25
Simpleton
9 Learning
29
Expiate
12 Affection
32
Fools 13 Ancient
33 weapons
Stiff 14
mass, esp. of Laborer
35
bread Prevent
37
Most15 singular Venomous
38 serpent
Fruit17of Cola Boundary
39
acuminata Thin40
Look18 rudely Yields
41
Hero19 of series of
books
Abounding
20 in ferns

VERTICAL

Footless
1 Keeper
16 of an
Wound 2 but not kill engagement
Basket 3 or trap for fish Openings
22
Glowing4 Pert.23
to Ireland
Unit of5 square One24 who rents
measure Cuts26out
Trifler6 Furnished
27 with guard
Prick 7designs on skin All possible
28
Coral 8island Poplar
30
Curl 10
the lip Gaze 31earnestly
German11 town Blood34
Writes
14 unskillfully German
36 river
[85]

[Contents]
Puzzle No. 86
 HEY, THERE!
By Neophyte

Dear Neophyte: Whaddaye mean by those two bare,

indecently naked words, each with three unkeyed
letters? An expert like you? However, you tried too
hard to keep it down to the level of ordinary mankind
and restrained yourself from so many outlandish
words that you are addicted to—that, we believe, the
puzzlers will forgive you.
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11
12 13
14 15 16
17 18 19 20
21 22
23 24
25 26 27
28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
36 37
38 39 40 41
42 43
44

[84]
HORIZONTAL

Outlive
1 Explode
24
Look 7hard Behold
25
Pert. to
9 ships Conjunction
27
Spoil12 Holy28
day
Metric
13cubic unit One32who reads
Storehouse
14 Anger
36
Shelter
15 Moves
37 slowly
Bivalve
17 Come38to fruition
Condition
19 Musical
40 drama
One21 Give42
pain
Parent
22 Enticed
43
Twig,23spray Most44
profound

VERTICAL

Godly1person American
18 bird
Vessel2 Kind20of sword
Come3back Fruit26
Part of
4 foot American
27 bird
Vessel5 Manners
29
Happening
6 Narrow
30 opening
Continue
7 Lukewarm
31
Sailors
8 Watchful
33
Surface
10 Defy34
That11
not Euphemism
35 for “By
Support
14 God”
Canopies
16 Point39of compass
Matter
41
[87]

[Contents]
Puzzle No. 87
 SPOT
By Irvan Neckerman

The blacks strewn negligently over the form give it an

informal look, different from those forms that are
studiedly ornamental and almost forbidding in the
courtly, mannered preciseness. However, Mr.
Neckerman’s construction may make you knit your
brows now and then.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13
14 15 16 17
18 19
20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27
28
29 30 31 32 33
34 35 36 37 38
39 40 41
42 43 44 45
46 47 48
49 50

[86]

HORIZONTAL
 Lampoon
1 Remedied
29
Key 6 Banked
31
Unit 11
of superficial Anglo-Saxon
34 money
measure of account
Parisian
12 theater Sovereign
35
Southern
13 constellation Sooner
38 than
Watched
14 Change
39
Beetle
16 Backward
42
Visitations
18 One44 who escapes
Christmas
20 Deviate
46
Signal
22 of distress Decline
47
Think23 Oil seeds
48
Fragment
25 Assistant
49 foreman
Flowers
27 At stated
50 periods
Small28dog

VERTICAL

Silk cloth
1 Cut 24
Part of
2 “to be” Retailer
26 of small
Humane3 wares
Female4 deer Redistribution
27
Scandinavian
5 myths Magnetic
29 metal
Detriment
6 Species
30 of palm
At one7 time Preserver
32
Foot of
8 an insect Earnestly
33
Fixed9point of time Inside
36
Madness
10 Fertile
37 (poetic)
Enlarge
15 Tear40
Branch
17 of heraldry Green41 and white
Springs
19 monkey
To meet
21 the eye
 Jurisdiction
43 of a
bishop
Fish45

[89]

[Contents]
Puzzle No. 88
 CENTRIFUGAL
By Minerva

Look at this with your eyes half closed and get the
effect of rotary motion. Then try and solve it, and see
if the rotary motion doesn’t transmit itself to your
head. Plenty of short words, but not all of them easy,
and the long ones—but go ahead!
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29
30 31 32 33 34
35 36 37 38 39 40
41 42 43 44 45 46
47 48 49 50
51 52 53
54 55 56 57 58
59 60 61 62 63 64
65 66 67 68 69 70
71 72 73 74 75
76 77 78 79 80 81
82 83 84 85 86
87 88 89 90 91 92
93 94 95
[88]

HORIZONTAL

An ancient
1 symbol Sea 53eagle
Fatigued
7 Owing 54
In case
12 Color 55
Proceed
14 Any 56plant of the
Coloring
15 amaryllis family
New17 Severe59 trial
Contained
19 Pen 61
Revolves
21 Excrements
63
Slip 23
away from Sun 65god
Suspended
25 Belonging
66 to me
A ship’s
27 smallboat Ridiculed
67
School
29 near Windsor One69
Castle Affirmative
70
Rodent
30 Preposterous
71
Enemies
31 To scorch
73
Inhabitants
33 of a A long75 strip of wood
country used for gliding over
Otherwise
35 snow
Myself
36 Small 76British isle
At no37time where Macbeth was
Maiden
39 changed by buried
Hera into a heifer Common78 laborer in
Sloth40 bondage for debt
Discolors
41 Stiffly
80formal
Existed
44 Beginning;
82 first
Testify
45 under oath attempt
Asiatic
47 country Get 84up
Turf 49 A fratricide
86
Deity50 Distorts;
87 pulls
Augment
51 obliquely
 Injured
52 by a blow Inter89
Chief91Babylonian deity
Toward
93
Precipitous
94
A king
95 of Thebes, son
of Œdipus

VERTICAL

Thus 1 Fearsome
46 giants
Deputy
2 Exist48
Disposed
3 of for a Large49body of water
consideration Invisible
51 emanation
The thing
4 Equal53
Young5 domestic Sleeping
54
animal Periods
55 of time
Assyrian
6 god of A mushroom
57
Chaos Mohammedan
58 title of
Reply8 courtesy
Accomplish
9 Engages
60 in any affair
Made10from a rib or business
Promote;
11 cause to Perspiration
61
grow Aye 62
Maddened
13 Seized
64
Attempt
16 Animal
67 fat
Recent
18 Abandon
68
Center
19 Small71insects
Protect;
20 fight for Above72
Backs
22of the necks In, on,
74 near or by
Accomplish
24 Quiet75
Unmetrical
25 literary Over77and in contact
composition with
Not any
26 Point79
 Behold
28 Secular
81
Stitch
32 Still 83
Party-colored
34 Plead 85
Intellect
36 Ourselves
88
Diversity
38 You 90
Soon40 Exists92
Assisted
42
Prophetess
43
Artful45device to evade
or cheat

[91]