Nagorno Karabagh

INTRODUCTION:
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over
the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians until 2023, and seven surrounding
districts, inhabited mostly by Azerbaijanis until their expulsion during the 1990s. The Nagorno-Karabakh
region was entirely claimed by and partially controlled by the breakaway Republic of Artsakh, but was
recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan gradually re-established control over Nagorno-
Karabakh region and the seven surrounding districts.

Throughout the Soviet period, Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast were heavily
discriminated against. The Soviet Azerbaijani authorities worked to suppress Armenian culture and
identity in Nagorno-Karabakh, pressured Armenians to leave the region and encouraged Azerbaijanis to
settle within it, although Armenians remained the majority population. During the glasnost period, a
1988 Nagorno-Karabakh referendum was held to transfer the region to Soviet Armenia, citing self-
determination laws in the Soviet constitution. This act was met with a series of pogroms against
Armenians across Azerbaijan, before violence committed against both Armenians and Azerbaijanis
occurred. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the
Soviet Union. The war was won by Artsakh and Armenia, and led to occupation of regions around Soviet-
era Nagorno-Karabakh. There were expulsions of ethnic Armenians from Azerbaijan and ethnic
Azerbaijanis from Armenia and the Armenian-controlled areas. The ceasefire ending the war, signed in
1994 in Bishkek, was followed by two decades of relative stability, which significantly deteriorated in the
2010s. A four-day escalation in April 2016 resulted in hundreds of casualties but only minor changes to
the front line.

In late 2020, the large-scale Second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in thousands of casualties and a
significant Azerbaijani victory. An armistice was established by a tripartite ceasefire agreement on
November 10, resulting in Azerbaijan regaining all of the occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-
Karabakh as well as capturing one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. Ceasefire violations in Nagorno-
Karabakh and on the Armenian–Azerbaijani border continued following the 2020 war. Azerbaijan
began blockading Artsakh in December 2022, and launched a large-scale military offensive in September
2023, resulting in a ceasefire agreement. Most ethnic Armenians fled, and Artsakh was officially dissolved
on 1 January 2024.

Historical Context

Ancient and Medieval Periods

• Early History: Nagorno-Karabakh, known historically as Artsakh, has been part of various
Armenian kingdoms since antiquity. The region's population has been predominantly Armenian
since these early times.

• Persian and Ottoman Rule: Over the centuries, Nagorno-Karabakh came under Persian and
Ottoman influence. By the 18th century, it was part of the Karabakh Khanate under Persian
suzerainty, but Armenians maintained a significant presence.
 • Russian Empire: Following the Russo-Persian War (1804–1813) and the Treaty of Gulistan in
1813, Nagorno-Karabakh was ceded to the Russian Empire, becoming part of the Elizavetpol
Governorate.

Soviet Era

• Sovietization: After the Russian Revolution and subsequent civil war, the South Caucasus was
integrated into the Soviet Union. In 1923, the Soviet government established the Nagorno-
Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) within the Azerbaijan SSR, despite its predominantly
Armenian population.

• Ethnic Composition and Tensions: Throughout the Soviet period, Armenians in Nagorno-
Karabakh experienced cultural and economic marginalization, fueling discontent and periodic
unrest.

Causes of the Conflict

Ethnic Tensions and Nationalism

• Rise of Nationalism: The 1980s saw a resurgence of ethnic nationalism across the Soviet Union.
In Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenians demanded unification with Armenia, citing historical ties and
discrimination under Azerbaijani rule.

• Karabakh Committee: In 1988, a group of Armenian intellectuals formed the Karabakh

Committee, advocating for the region's transfer to Armenian control. This movement gained
widespread support among Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia proper.

Political and Territorial Disputes

• NKAO's Vote for Unification: In February 1988, the NKAO regional council voted to secede from
Azerbaijan and join Armenia. This decision was rejected by Soviet authorities and led to violent
clashes between Armenians and Azeris.

• Sumgait Pogrom: In response to the secessionist movement, ethnic violence erupted in the
Azerbaijani city of Sumgait in March 1988, resulting in the massacre of Armenians. This pogrom
intensified the conflict, leading to further ethnic violence and population displacements.

First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994)

Escalation and War

• Armed Conflict: The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 removed the central authority that
had kept ethnic tensions in check. Full-scale war erupted between newly independent Armenia
and Azerbaijan, with Nagorno-Karabakh at the center.

• Military Gains: By 1993, Armenian forces had gained control over most of Nagorno-Karabakh
and occupied adjacent Azerbaijani territories, creating a land corridor to Armenia.

Humanitarian Impact
 • Casualties and Displacement: The war resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and the
displacement of over a million people, including both Armenians and Azeris. Ethnic cleansing
and atrocities were committed by both sides.

Ceasefire

• Bishkek Protocol: In May 1994, a Russian-brokered ceasefire, known as the Bishkek Protocol,
was signed. Although it ended active hostilities, it did not resolve the underlying issues or lead to
a formal peace agreement.

Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020)

Large-scale fighting began on the morning of 27 September, with an Azerbaijani offensive along the line
of contact established in the aftermath of the first war. Clashes were particularly intense in the less
mountainous districts of southern Nagorno-Karabakh. On the same day, Azerbaijan's Parliament declared
a martial law and established curfews in several cities and regions following the clashes. Turkey provided
military support to Azerbaijan, although the extent of this support has been disputed.

The war was marked by the deployment of drones, sensors, long-range heavy artillery and missile strikes,
as well as by state propaganda and the use of official social media accounts in online information
warfare. In particular, Azerbaijan's widespread use of drones was seen as crucial in determining the
conflict's outcome. Numerous countries and the United Nations strongly condemned the fighting and
called on both sides to de-escalate tensions and resume meaningful negotiations.[133] Three ceasefires
brokered by Russia, France, and the United States failed to stop the conflict.[134]Following the capture of
Shusha, the second-largest city in Nagorno-Karabakh, a ceasefire agreement was signed, ending all
hostilities in the area from 10 November 2020.[135][136][137] Following the end of the war, an unconfirmed
number of Armenian prisoners of war were captive in Azerbaijan, with reports of mistreatment and
charges filed against them,[138][139][140][141] leading to a case at the International Court of Justice.[142]

Casualties were high,[143] officially in the low thousands.[144] According to official figures released by the
belligerents, Armenia and Artsakh lost 3,825 troops,[145] with 187 servicemen missing in action,[146] while
Azerbaijan claimed 2,906 of their troops were killed, with 6 missing in action.[147] The Syrian Observatory
for Human Rights reported the deaths of 541 Syrian fighters or mercenaries fighting for
Azerbaijan.[148] However, it was noted that the sides downplayed the number of their own casualties and
exaggerated the numbers of enemy casualties and injuries.[149]The total number of reported civilian
fatalities on both sides was at least 185; the whereabouts of 21 Armenian civilians remain unknown.
Civilian areas, including major cities, were hit, particularly Stepanakert, Martuni, Martakert, Shushi in the
Republic of Artsakh and Ganja, Barda and Tartar in Azerbaijan, with many buildings and homes destroyed.

Role of Other States and International Actors

Armenia

• Support for Nagorno-Karabakh: Armenia provided crucial military, economic, and political
support to Nagorno-Karabakh, viewing the region as an integral part of Armenian heritage and
national identity.
 • Political Stance: Successive Armenian governments have called for international recognition of
Nagorno-Karabakh's independence or its unification with Armenia.

Azerbaijan

• Territorial Integrity: Azerbaijan's primary objective has been to restore its territorial integrity by
regaining control over Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding occupied regions.

• Military Buildup: Azerbaijan has invested heavily in its military, leveraging revenues from its
significant oil and gas reserves to modernize its armed forces.

Russia

• Strategic Interests: Russia has historically played a complex role, acting both as a mediator and
an arms supplier to both sides. It seeks to maintain its influence in the South Caucasus and
prevent the conflict from destabilizing the region.

• Peacekeeping Role: Russia has deployed peacekeeping forces in Nagorno-Karabakh following the
2020 ceasefire, reinforcing its role as a key power broker.

Turkey

• Support for Azerbaijan: Turkey has provided strong diplomatic and military support to
Azerbaijan, driven by ethnic, cultural, and strategic ties. Turkish military assistance was pivotal in
Azerbaijan's successes during the 2020 conflict.

Iran

• Balanced Approach: Iran has a large ethnic Azerbaijani population and shares cultural and
religious ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. It has sought to balance its relations with both
countries while advocating for regional stability.

Western Countries and the OSCE Minsk Group

• Mediation Efforts: The OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by Russia, the United States, and France,
was established in 1992 to mediate the conflict. Despite numerous peace proposals, the group
has been unable to secure a lasting resolution.

• Diplomatic Engagement: Western countries have provided humanitarian aid and supported
diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, but their influence has been limited compared to
regional powers.

Recent Developments

Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020)

• Renewed Hostilities: In September 2020, fighting resumed on a larger scale, marking the most
significant escalation since the 1994 ceasefire. The conflict lasted 44 days and resulted in
significant casualties and territorial changes.
 • Azerbaijani Advances: Backed by Turkish military technology and advisors, Azerbaijani forces
made significant territorial gains, reclaiming parts of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding
regions.

• Ceasefire Agreement: A ceasefire brokered by Russia in November 2020 ended the hostilities.
Under the agreement, Armenia ceded territories and allowed the deployment of Russian
peacekeepers in the region.

Recent Developments
Periodic violations of the 2020 ceasefire eventually escalated into a two-day conflict beginning
September 13, 2022—the most significant provocation since 2020. The death toll has been disputed, with
estimates ranging from one to three hundred killed in the cross-border attacks. Azerbaijan launched
attacks on several locations inside Armenian territory, which forced the evacuation of more than 2,700
civilians. Armenia and Azerbaijan have exchanged accusations of blame for initiating the violence.
Despite its focus on the conflict in Ukraine, Russia claimed credit for mediating a truce between the
warring parties. Additional border clashes were reported on September 21, September 23,
and September 28, less than one week after the Russian-brokered truce.

In December 2022, Azerbaijani activists occupied the Lachin corridor,

ostensibly protesting environmental degradation caused by illegal mining in Nagorno-Karabakh.
However, the protesters reportedly had state backing from Baku, and they blocked all traffic except for
Red Cross and Russian convoys. The Russian peacekeepers, in place to ensure the artery remained open
for Armenian supplies, were unwilling or unable to secure and reopen the highway. As a result, residents
in Nagorno-Karabakh faced severe shortages and rationing.

On April 23, 2023, Azerbaijan opened a checkpoint on the highway, which it claimed was necessary to
intercept and deter military shipments from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. The protests ended days
later, suggesting that the government’s true objective was to block Armenian passage. Armenia and ethnic
Armenian leaders in Nagorno-Karabakh condemned the checkpoint, saying Azerbaijan sought to isolate
Karabakh Armenians and solidify its control over the region. Russia, meanwhile, issued only a mild
statement criticizing the move. In the face of repeated efforts to restrict Armenia’s access to the region,
the peacekeeping force's passivity eroded trust in Russia as a viable security guarantor.

Azerbaijan further tightened access to Nagorno-Karabakh, banning even Red Cross convoys from passing
through the Lachin Corridor to the region over alleged smuggling of unsanctioned products. Azerbaijani
security forces also detained an individual passing through a checkpoint for medical care in Armenia,
leading to a suspension of medical evacuations for critically-ill patients. With no supplies allowed to pass
through the corridor, shelves sat empty and two children died as the humanitarian crisis turned critical.
Azerbaijan offered aid, but the region’s leaders rejected it, saying they would not accept aid from the
country responsible for the crisis.

On September 19, 2023, days after an agreement to reopen the Lachin Corridor for aid deliveries sparked
hopes of easing the crisis, Azerbaijan launched an “anti-terrorist” offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Karabakh officials said at least two hundred people died in the operation, which Azerbaijan said was aimed
at neutralizing Armenian military installments. Within two days, Azerbaijan claimed to have regained full
control over the region, and Russia-mediated negotiations began in Yevlakh, Azerbaijan, over the
disarmament of Armenian separatists and the reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan.
Meanwhile, protestors took to the streets in Yerevan, Armenia, accusing the government of failing to
protect ethnic Armenians and demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. At stake was
the status of around 100,000 ethnic Armenians living in the disputed territory; thousands
immediately fled to Armenia, fearing persecution if they stayed, and officials demanded security
guarantees for those who remained before they agreed to give up their weapons.

Current Status

• Fragile Ceasefire: The ceasefire remains fragile, with occasional skirmishes and violations
reported. The future of Nagorno-Karabakh's political status remains uncertain, and the potential
for renewed conflict persists.

• Humanitarian Situation: The conflict has left many displaced and in need of humanitarian
assistance. Reconstruction and reconciliation efforts are ongoing but face significant challenges.

Role of the United Nations

Resolutions and Statements

• UN Security Council Resolutions: The UN Security Council adopted four resolutions in 1993 (822,
853, 874, 884) calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities, the withdrawal of Armenian
forces from occupied territories, and the return of displaced persons. These resolutions
reaffirmed Azerbaijan's territorial integrity but were not fully implemented.

• General Assembly: The UN General Assembly has passed resolutions supporting Azerbaijan's
territorial integrity and calling for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

Humanitarian Efforts

• UN Agencies: The UN and its specialized agencies, including UNHCR and UNICEF, provide
humanitarian assistance to those affected by the conflict, focusing on displaced populations,
children, and other vulnerable groups.

Diplomatic Efforts

• Support for Mediation: The UN supports the OSCE Minsk Group's mediation efforts and
advocates for a negotiated settlement based on the principles of international law, including
respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the right to self-determination.

Conclusion

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the most protracted and complex ethnic and territorial disputes
in the post-Soviet space. Its roots lie in historical grievances, ethnic nationalism, and competing
territorial claims. Despite multiple attempts at mediation and periodic ceasefires, a comprehensive and
lasting peace agreement has remained elusive. The involvement of regional powers and the strategic
importance of the South Caucasus add layers of complexity to the conflict, making its resolution a
challenging task for the international community.

Detailed Comparison of Nagorno-Karabakh and Kashmir Conflicts

Historical Context

Nagorno-Karabakh

• Early History: The region of Nagorno-Karabakh, known historically as Artsakh, has been
inhabited by Armenians for centuries. Over time, it fell under Persian, Ottoman, and Russian
rule. After the Russian Revolution, the South Caucasus underwent significant geopolitical
changes.

• Soviet Era: In 1923, the Soviet government established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous
Oblast (NKAO) within the Azerbaijan SSR, despite its predominantly Armenian population. The
decision to place Nagorno-Karabakh under Azerbaijani jurisdiction sowed the seeds of future
conflict.

Kashmir

• Pre-Partition History: Kashmir was a princely state during British rule in India, with a diverse
population comprising Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs, and Buddhists. The region was ruled by a Hindu
Maharaja, Hari Singh.

• Partition of India (1947): Upon the partition of British India, the Maharaja chose to accede to
India, leading to the first Indo-Pakistani war. The United Nations intervened, resulting in a
ceasefire and the establishment of the Line of Control (LoC), dividing Kashmir between India and
Pakistan.

Nature of the Disputes

Ethnic and Religious Dimensions

• Nagorno-Karabakh: The conflict is primarily ethnic, with Armenians and Azeris vying for control
over the region. Religious differences (Christian Armenians vs. Muslim Azeris) also play a role but
are secondary to ethnic nationalism.

• Kashmir: The conflict has a strong religious dimension, with the predominantly Muslim
population of the Kashmir Valley opposing Indian rule. The broader conflict encompasses ethnic
identities and regional aspirations within both Indian-administered and Pakistani-administered
areas.

Territorial Disputes

• Both conflicts involve disputed territorial claims:

o Nagorno-Karabakh: Armenia and Azerbaijan dispute control over Nagorno-Karabakh and

surrounding regions.

o Kashmir: India and Pakistan both claim the entire region of Jammu and Kashmir, while
China also controls parts of the territory (Aksai Chin and Trans-Karakoram Tract).

Regional and International Involvement

Regional Powers
 • Nagorno-Karabakh:

o Armenia: Provides military, economic, and political support to Nagorno-Karabakh,

viewing the region as an integral part of Armenian heritage and national identity.

o Azerbaijan: Aims to regain control over Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding

territories, investing heavily in its military.

o Russia: Acts as a mediator and peacekeeper while maintaining strategic interests in the
South Caucasus. Supplies arms to both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

o Turkey: Strongly supports Azerbaijan due to ethnic and cultural ties, providing military
assistance.

• Kashmir:

o India: Seeks to maintain control over Jammu and Kashmir, integrating it more fully into
the Indian Union and combating insurgency movements.

o Pakistan: Supports the Kashmiri self-determination movement and calls for a UN-
mediated plebiscite.

o China: Controls parts of the territory (Aksai Chin and Trans-Karakoram Tract) and has
strategic interests in the region.

International Organizations

• Nagorno-Karabakh:

o OSCE Minsk Group: Established in 1992 to mediate the conflict, co-chaired by Russia,
the US, and France. Despite multiple proposals, a lasting solution remains elusive.

• Kashmir:

o United Nations: Passed several resolutions calling for a plebiscite to determine the will
of the Kashmiri people. These resolutions have not been implemented due to differing
interpretations and political disagreements.

Humanitarian Impact

Nagorno-Karabakh

• Casualties and Displacement: The first war (1988-1994) resulted in around 30,000 deaths and
displaced over a million people. The 2020 conflict caused further casualties and displacements.

• Human Rights Violations: Both sides have committed atrocities, including ethnic cleansing and
targeting civilians.

Kashmir

• Casualties and Displacement: Multiple wars and continuous skirmishes have led to tens of
thousands of deaths and widespread displacement. Human rights violations and civilian suffering
remain significant issues.
 • Militarization: The region remains heavily militarized, with frequent reports of human rights
abuses and civilian casualties.

Key Events

Nagorno-Karabakh

• First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994): Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, full-scale
war erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The conflict resulted in Armenian control over
Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding Azerbaijani territories. A ceasefire was brokered in 1994, but
the conflict remained unresolved.

• Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020): In September 2020, renewed fighting broke out, with
Azerbaijan making significant territorial gains. A Russia-brokered ceasefire in November 2020
ended the hostilities, with Armenia ceding territories and Russian peacekeepers deployed in the
region.

Kashmir

• First Indo-Pakistani War (1947-1948): The war resulted in the establishment of the LoC and the
UN-mediated ceasefire, dividing Kashmir between India and Pakistan.

• Kargil War (1999): Pakistan infiltrated forces into the Kargil district of Indian-administered
Kashmir, leading to a limited war. India eventually repelled the Pakistani forces.

• Revocation of Article 370 (2019): India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir,
integrating it more fully into the Indian Union. This move has led to increased tensions and
international criticism.

Quotes and References

Nagorno-Karabakh

• Thomas de Waal (Author, "Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War"):
"The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the most intractable and dangerous in the post-Soviet
world. It combines an ethnic conflict with a territorial dispute and is complicated by great power
interests."

• Paul Goble (Expert on Eurasian Affairs): "Nagorno-Karabakh represents a microcosm of the

broader geopolitical struggles in the South Caucasus, where historical grievances and national
aspirations collide."

Kashmir

• Christine Fair (Political Scientist): "Kashmir is often described as a nuclear flashpoint. The
enduring territorial dispute between India and Pakistan has not only defined the subcontinent's
geopolitical landscape but also influenced the broader international relations dynamics in the
region."
 • Stephen Cohen (South Asia Expert): "The Kashmir conflict is deeply rooted in the historical and
political context of the partition of British India, and any solution must address the aspirations of
the Kashmiri people while balancing the strategic interests of India and Pakistan."

Potential Solutions

Nagorno-Karabakh

1. Negotiated Settlement:

o International Mediation: Enhanced efforts by the OSCE Minsk Group to broker a

comprehensive peace agreement.

o Confidence-Building Measures: Initiatives to build trust between Armenian and

Azerbaijani communities, including people-to-people contacts and economic
cooperation.

2. Autonomy and Self-Determination:

o Special Status: Granting Nagorno-Karabakh a special autonomous status within

Azerbaijan, with guarantees for Armenian cultural and political rights.

o Referendum: Conducting a UN-supervised referendum to determine the future status of

Nagorno-Karabakh.

3. Security Guarantees:

o Peacekeeping Forces: Continued deployment of international peacekeeping forces to

prevent further hostilities and ensure the safety of all communities.

Kashmir

1. Bilateral Dialogue:

o India-Pakistan Talks: Resumption of comprehensive bilateral talks focusing on

confidence-building measures and conflict resolution.

o Track II Diplomacy: Encouraging unofficial dialogues and exchanges between Indian and
Pakistani civil societies.

2. Political Autonomy:

o Restoration of Special Status: Reinstating Jammu and Kashmir's special status (Article
370) to grant greater political autonomy.

o Local Governance: Empowering local governance structures and ensuring political

representation for all communities.

3. Human Rights and Humanitarian Efforts:

o Human Rights Monitoring: Establishing independent human rights monitoring

mechanisms to investigate and address violations.
 o Development Initiatives: Investing in economic development and infrastructure projects
to improve living conditions and reduce grievances.

4. UN Involvement:

o Plebiscite: Holding a UN-supervised plebiscite to determine the will of the Kashmiri

people, as per earlier UN resolutions. This would require significant diplomatic efforts to
align the positions of India, Pakistan, and the Kashmiri leadership.

Conclusion

The Nagorno-Karabakh and Kashmir conflicts share several similarities, including their historical origins,
ethnic and religious dimensions, and the involvement of regional and international actors. Both conflicts
have resulted in significant human suffering and remain unresolved, posing challenges to regional
stability and international peace.

Potential solutions for both conflicts involve a combination of negotiated settlements, political
autonomy, confidence-building measures, and international mediation. Addressing the underlying
grievances and aspirations of the affected populations is crucial for achieving lasting peace. The
international community, including organizations like the UN and the OSCE, can play a vital role in
facilitating dialogue and supporting conflict resolution efforts.